UNLOCKED: A New Tour For A New(er) Format

February 3, 2016 Travis Allen 12 Comments

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of MTG Fast Finance! An on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important Magic economy changes.

Despite Standard being the overwhelmingly popular format for most players, I can’t tear myself away from Modern. Even though this past weekend’s SCG Modern Classic had perhaps the most boring top 16 we’ve seen in months, the format feels electric. With Twin banned there’s this whole new world open to players. No longer do you need to be concerned about dying if you tap out on turn 3. All over my timeline and in my Facebook chats, people are discussing new brews and bringing back old ones that couldn’t quite cut the mustard in the past. Are all of them suddenly good? Of course not. Are any of them? Also probably not. It’s still fun to try though!

I’m currently amused by the Descendants’ Path Eldrazi deck, and not just because I’ve got a stack of Paths.

This is the basic formula. Descendant’s Path on turn 3, Conduit of Ruin (thanks to Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple) on turn 4, and cast Emrakul, the Aeons Torn for free turn 5. Or really, any Eldrazi on turn 4, and just hope to hit blind every turn after that. Mutavault gives us free shots at Path triggers when we don’t have a board presence, and if we’re already in green, Ancient Stirrings is phenomenal when all your creatures, all of your lands, and some of your spells are colorless. I doubt this is particularly better than the other Eldrazi builds, but it sure is fun looking. It’s mostly just refreshing that you can play three-mana enchantments without worrying that you’re going to die to an empty board.

Removing Twin from the format unsurprisingly was not unanimously hailed as a wise idea. Corbin Hosler wrote an excellent piece here on MTGPrice about the topic, Sam Black contributed his typical outstanding insight, and PVDDR didn’t shy away from chiming in either. While I’m personally pleased with the change, if only for change’s sake, there was a larger thread entangled in the week-long discussion, one which isn’t new, and isn’t over yet.

The Problem

If you’ve been playing Magic for a few years now, you may remember that Wizards at one point axed the Block and Modern Pro Tours. All Pro Tours were to become Standard only. While there weren’t many tears shed over the loss of Block (although for our niche community it was a big loss), people were real angry Modern was being taken away. A format’s presence on the largest stage the game has to offer, and an official stage at that, grants true validity. It says “yes, Wizards of the Coast believes in, agrees with, and supports this way to play Magic as a true format.” Without Modern at the Pro Tour, players were scared of many things — scared WotC would drop support for the format, scared it would dry up locally, scared of stagnation. Most of all, I think they were scared of a loss of legitimacy. I certainly felt that way.

Wizards capitulated, and gave us back the Modern Pro Tour as the first to be played each year. Winter sets hadn’t been affecting Modern much the last few years, and so it was the easiest Standard Pro Tour to toss under the bus. Players rejoiced; their favorite format (well for some of us) had remained legitimate.

Keeping the Modern Pro Tour was not without a cost, though, and it’s a cost Wizards, pros, and average players have each paid.

From Wizard’s perspective, it’s essentially lost revenue. Pro Tours are a marketing tool, and are designed to highlight the new set. The problem is that Modern frequently fails to highlight the latest set. While Oath of the Gatewatch may prove an exception — I’m looking at you, Thought-Knot Seer — for the most part, the latest set doesn’t do much to Modern as a whole. Spending all that money and energy on a Pro Tour that isn’t accomplishing what they want it to in the first place isn’t ideal. Remember that we as players see the Pro Tour as our own Superbowl, our own Olympics, our own Wimbeldon. It’s about the game. And while Aaron Forsythe and Erik Lauer likely share our feelings to some degree, the executive suite at Hasbro doesn’t give a rat’s ass about running the Pro Tour out of respect for the game. If the Pro Tour isn’t profitable, they’ll stop doing it.

From a pro’s perspective, or at least some of them, Modern isn’t a fun Pro Tour format. Standard tends to change fairly dramatically with each new set; especially so with the new two-set block structure. Modern, however, sees far less changes made with broad strokes. Affinity has shown up at every Pro Tour, and you can be damn sure it’s going to show up at this one too. There’s also the characteristic that the format leans heavily on sideboards in general. While I don’t agree with everything he says, PVDDR was perceptive with his discussion about that particular facet here. The tl;dr is that Modern is a single fair deck (Jund or Abzan) and a mountain of unfair decks (Tron, Scapeshift, Storm, Infect, Bogles…literally everything else).

From a typical player’s perspective, there isn’t a problem. That, however, doesn’t mean there isn’t actually a problem. It means that it’s difficult at times for us to see, but not that it doesn’t exist. It’s only now, after the Twin ban, that it’s been discussed with such clarity and begrudging acceptance.

You see, the existence of a Modern Pro Tour shapes the way Wizards manages the format. Summer Bloom’s ban is a perfect example of this. It became clear that deck was bad for the format nearly a year ago at Pro Tour Fate Reforged. Bloom’s raw power and blinding speed was on display time and time again in the following months, clearly violating the “turn four” rule explicitly stated by Wizards. In all honesty, it should have been banned if not at the Dragons of Tarkir B&R update, then at least the Magic Origins or Battle for Zendikar updates. Instead, the ban was held for Oath of the Gatewatch, just a few weeks before the subsequent Modern Pro Tour, one year after the deck’s rise to power. Why was it held? So as to create the most exciting and interesting PT possible. Banning Summer Bloom when Magic Origins was released would mean that in the subsequent months, the post-Bloom format would have been figured out. People preparing for the PT would know exactly what the format looked like at that point in time. Instead though, Bloom was banned just two weeks before the Pro Tour, which means the updated Modern format will be on display for the first time this coming weekend.

Splinter Twin’s ban is the same story. By holding off on the Twin ban until right before the Pro Tour, players are excited to see a brand new Modern format being attacked at the highest level, rather than having already watched the change play out over several months on the SCG and GP circuit. Without a Modern Pro Tour, these changes may have been made when they were appropriate — Summer Bloom in the summer, and Twin in the fall. Instead, they were delayed so as to create the most compelling Pro Tour possible. The existence of a Modern Pro Tour didn’t change the content of the bans — Wizards was going to ban those cards with or without a Modern PT — but it changed the timing.

That’s what makes people uncomfortable. It feels as if the format is managed not for the health of it, as we see with Legacy changes happening as needed, but rather as if it’s managed to maximize viewership for the Pro Tour. And make no mistake about it, it is. A Modern Pro Tour means that we only get to see updates to the format once a year, rather than sprinkled around where appropriate. With Twin’s departure it’s possible Ancestral Vision can be unbanned, but rather than attempt it in six months, where it may otherwise be appropriate, Wizards will sit on their decision until February 2017. With only one change to the B&R list a year, players are forced to suffer through decks that are too good, but not at “emergency ban” level for much longer than they would otherwise.

Solutions

Pros don’t like the Modern Pro Tour.. Players don’t (or shouldn’t) like it. Wizards doesn’t like it.

So what are we to do?

As someone who loves Modern over all other formats, the first half of the answer is clear — ditch the Modern Pro Tour. Don’t get me wrong, I was right there on Twitter yelling at Helene when they cancelled it in the first place. Now, some years later, we can all look back and agree that overall it’s not the best thing for Modern right now.

Yet, I still desperately want there to be grand stage for Modern. Grand Prixs simply don’t cut it. Players, especially pros, aren’t sufficiently incentivized to dig deep into a format that’s only played at GPs. If Modern is only ever a GP format, pros will play either what they played last time or they’ll check out the top few builds on mtgtop8, and that will be it. Meanwhile, players won’t feel like there’s a true “gold standard” for Modern, and without a Modern Pro Tour, the format simply won’t feel as legitimate as Standard.

We all seem to have accepted without discussion an idea of mutual exclusivity; that either there’s a Modern Pro Tour and all the trappings that come with it, or we’re resigned to only ever play and watch Modern at Grand Prixs. It’s one or the other, and all of the conversations I see and participate in are predicated on this premise. One thing I haven’t seen mentioned really at all is the idea of a new, professional-level Modern event.

What if we can have our cake and eat it too? Let’s move all the current Pro Tours to Standard and let those be what they are. Then, let’s make a whole new event that’s all about Modern. It doesn’t need to be a “Pro Tour” per se, but it needs to feel like it’s at the same level. The prize payout needs to be reason enough for pros to spend a week or two working on coming up with great decks, rather than showing up with what worked last time. It could be the Modern Championships or something like that. Have it once a year, syncing up with the release of the Modern Masters series.

Spinning Modern off from the Pro Tour would open a lot of design space for the event, because it wouldn’t need to adhere to the typical PT structure. Rather than use the same invite system, what if instead it took the top 64 players from each of the past four Pro Tours, plus the top 16 of each Modern GP? I didn’t run the math to see how many players that is, but the numbers could be extended down as necessary. Hell, toss in the SCG Modern Opens too. If you’ve performed well at a major Modern event in the last year, you get to go to the Modern Championships. Now you’re getting not only generically good Magic players like Paul Rietzl, you’re getting players that love to dig deep into the Modern format specifically.

Furthermore, what if we adjust the tournament structure? Instead of the modified Swiss we see in most cases, what about a different arrangement that changes some equations? We could have a shorter Swiss with best of five games rather than three. Or expand sideboards to 20 cards rather than 15. Or whatever works best. I’m sure people more familiar with tournament structure and its intersection with gameplay could craft some creative and exciting ways to host an event tailor made for Modern. I don’t know what the right configuration looks like, but with free reign to design a tournament that encourages innovation and experimentation, we could have a thrilling, engaging Modern event.

With Modern standing on its own legs, in its own professional-level event, management of the B&R list can change as well. Wizards could stop holding changes until the yearly event, and instead dole them out as necessary. This would be especially true if the Modern Championships wasn’t just a yearly event, but instead twice a year.

That leads me to an even grander idea. What if there were two Pro Tours? There would of course be the Standard Pro Tour, which is what we’ve got right now. Then running alongside it we’d also have the Modern Pro Tour. A Modern Pro Tour series would run on its own schedule, with its own PTQ system. Players would have a brand new path to success and achievement, while also an entirely different tournament series to follow and contribute to. This would stand Modern up as a fully legitimate format, on par with Standard. Even if you only ran two Modern Pro Tours a year compared to the four of Standard, it would be awesome to treat the format as its own tournament series, with its own set of rules and characteristics. Is this a pipe dream? Yeah, probably. Still fun to think about though.

Conclusions

As it stands, the Modern Pro Tour is an interloper; an infringement on what is clearly a series of Standard tournaments. It is in the best interest of Wizards, of pros, and of players to remove Modern from the Pro Tour circuit as we know it today. This doesn’t mean that it’s best to just let the format settle for SCG Opens and Grand Prixs, though. Spinning the Modern Pro Tour into a full fledged, stand-alone event would give the format room to come into its own, and allow Wizards to manage the banned and restricted list with the health of the format in mind.

Removing the Modern Pro Tour doesn’t need to be the end of the format. It can be the beginning.

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – The Big Finance 101

February 2, 2016 Jim Casale 7 Comments

I read a lot of comments on a lot of articles, threads, facebook posts, etc. I see a ton of the same questions asked. In this article I hope to bullet point some frequently asked questions because I think the value of making this decision on your own vastly out weighs asking the general populace (that likely doesn’t have your best interests in mind).

Should I sell this?

Nobody knows enough information about this except you. When I decide to sell cards I consider some criteria and hopefully by sharing it with you, you can make you own decisions about when to sell.

Am I playing this card?
Just don’t sell stuff you play with. That doesn’t make any sense.
Am I going to play this card in the near future?
This might seem a little obvious but I’ve seen a lot of people make pretty poor decisions because they don’t consider this. I was going to FNM with a friend last night who decided to sell his Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hungers because the store was paying a lot for them. That usually makes a lot of sense until the conversation we had later that night where he says “I think I’m going to build the Eldrazi Ramp deck.” The action of selling Ulamog is completely contradictory to his idea of building the deck that uses the card. While I don’t think you should be holding cards you might play, if you’re actively considering a deck I don’t recommend selling the pieces before you make a decision.
How long can I afford to hold this?
Ah yes the ole “hold that card, it will retain value forever” argument. I see this most commonly with expeditions these days. People ask if they should hold or sell these insanely expensive and rare lands. The argument I hear from people is “hold it, it will always go up” and while that’s true, you have to consider how long you are willing to wait to get rid of it. The price trajectory of expedition has been down as people are still opening Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch. Unless there is a significant increase in demand, the increase in supply will continue to drag prices down. Eye of Ugin’s expedition was $180 pre-order during pre-release weekend. Today you can buy a copy for $110. If you decided not to sell that weekend, how long do you think it will take to regain that $70? How many years do you want to hold something?
Is there a reason this card might go up soon?
This is a pretty simple one. Is there a Pro Tour, Grand Prix, or StarCity Open that is likely to feature the card I’m looking to sell? Can you wait until it’s going on? It’s very unlikely that cards will fall when they get featured on camera but it is extremely likely that they rise. You want to see what could happen? Look at the price of Auriok Champion. It spiked during an SCG Open where it got a lot of camera time.

Should I buy this?

One again, this is another question that is better if you answer yourself rather than ask others for opinions.

When will I play the deck that needs this card?
A lot of players get caught up in “but what if I need this?” syndrome. I know that’s not a very scientific way of explaining but you know what I’m saying. This point often comes up most when on the eve of a new set release. How much do you need to have cards the day the set is released? I don’t typically so I won’t rush to pre-order them or buy them on release day. This time I did because I played in SCG Atlanta the weekend of the set release. I was okay overpaying to make sure I had the best deck I could play that weekend. The other time this question is important is for Modern. Do you regularly play Modern? Are you just building a deck to play the PPTQs during Modern season? If you don’t play it a lot there isn’t a lot of reason to buy cards too ahead of time. For this year I would probably look to finish my Modern deck during the release of Shadows over Innistrad.
Is there a high chance of reprint in the near future?
This point is a little subjective. Inquisition of Kozilek is a card that could have been reprinted. This kept the price of Inquisition fairly low because people weren’t buying it aggressively because of a feared reprint. In this case, I would defer to Warren Buffet, and buy when others are fearful. If Inquisition had a similar loss to Thoughtseize the risk of reprint is less costly than a risk of no reprint. Thoughtseize lost ~ 75% of it’s value (falling from roughly $100 to $25). If Inquisition lost 75% of it’s $12 price tag it would be a loss of maybe $9-10. If you waited until it was announced as not a reprint you were looking at spending an extra $13 as it doubled up in a few hours. I’d rather over pay by $9 than have to pay twice as much if the card doesn’t get reprinted. Zendikar fetchlands had similar reactions when it was announced they were not in Battle for Zendikar.
How much are you willing to spend to play Magic?
Maybe that’s a little vague but that’s basically the question I would ask myself. How much are you willing to spend on Magic? If you get to play Standard twice a week for 3 months, what is that worth to you? If you Standard deck is worth $100 less after that time frame, is it worth the same to you as two video games? You’re basically paying $100 for 24 tournaments. That’s the average number of times you can play between set releases. You definitely can’t go to 24 movies for $100. Based loosely on current movie prices near me, it would cost $288 to see 24 movies. Now let’s add another $200 for new cards every set. You’re looking at probably $300 per set release to keep playing Magic. Is that something you’re willing to do? If it’s not, then don’t buy the cards. You can definitely save a lot more by purchasing cards from the same block (the R/G Eldrazi ramp deck is a great investment now because it won’t largely change until it rotates in April of 2017) and playing a deck for a long time.
When did this card last change in price?
Cards that are spiking or have recently seen price increases are much more likely to become cheaper in the coming days. There is always a supply and demand curve that becomes sated eventually as people sell copies they don’t need anymore and players stop buying at the higher price. Generally speaking I would recommend waiting until the Tuesday or Wednesday after a card sees a significant increase to purchase my copies if I need them. It gives stores a chance to restock and a work day or two for TCGPlayer (or Magic Card Market) to resupply itself from people that weren’t paying attention over the weekend. I like to refer to the post spike price as the “weekend” price because it almost never stays past then. Unfortunately this is the price that often gets quoted to players as the new “going rate” and causes more panic purchases.

James Chillcott, MTG Fast Finance

MTG Fast Finance: Episode 2

February 1, 2016 James Chillcott 29 Comments

by Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin) & James Chillcott (@mtgcritic)

MTG Fast Finance is a new weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Jan 29th

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Battle Screech (Judgement)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $3.00
Gain: +$2.50 (+500%)

Treasure Hunt (Magic Player Rewards)
Start: $1.25
Finish: $6.50
Gain: +$5.25 (+420%)

Boom/Bust (Planar Chaos)
Start: $2.50
Finish: $7.00
Gain: +$4.50 (+180%)

Palinchron (Urza’s Legacy)
Start: $11.00
Finish: $25.00
Gain: +$14.00 (+127%)

Flagstones of Trokair (Time Spiral)
Start: $13.00
Finish: $26.00
Gain: +$13.00 (+100%)

Seedborn Muse (Legions/9th/10th)
Start: $13.00
Finish: $26.00
Gain: +13.00 (+100%)

Ghost Quarter (Various)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $2.00
Gain: +1.00 (+100%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James Picks:

Harbinger of the Tides, ORI (Foil): $6.50 to $15+ (+130%, 6-12+ months)
Goblin Piledriver, ORI (Foil): $5 to $10+ (+100%, 12+ months)
Painful Truths, BFZ (Foil): $11 to $20+ (80%, 6-12+ months)

Disclosure: James is holding several Harbinger of the Tides foils.

Travis Picks:

Delver of Secrets (Foil): $12 to $25 (110%, 0 – 12 months)
Kozilek, the Great Distortion (Foil): $60 to $80 (33%, 6 – 12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis is not holding either of his picks at present.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

The guys highlighted the successful showing for Merfolk as the 2nd, 3rd, and 12th at the #SCG Modern Classic last weekend as a deck that keeps slipping under the radar despite doing well. Goblins was also noted as the winner of the Legacy Classic at the same tournament.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week: Is MTG Too Expensive?

The guys discussed the average cost to play Magic: The Gathering, and the many ways players have to mitigate those costs in their favor.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: Hidden Upside in Preconstructed Products

February 1, 2016 Sigmund Ausfresser 4 Comments

Once the full spoiler of Oath of the Gatewatch was revealed, one noteworthy omission was immediately spotted: Inquisition of Kozilek. The card seemingly could have fit in perfectly with the set, storyline not withstanding. Yet Wizards of the Coast didn’t seem interested (or hadn’t planned) in keeping the Modern staple at its once-affordable price. As a result, we have yet another $20 Uncommon on our hands.

I guess if you don’t want to shell out $25 to play Inquisition, you could always play the more “budget-friendly” discard spell Thoughtseize. Five years ago, who would have ever expected trend reversal?

One More Purchase

In reaction to the spike, I rushed out and did my usual thorough search of the internet for copies at the “old price”. I found a mild degree of success – eight copies on Card Shark at roughly $12 each after shipping costs were factored in. One seller shipped, the other cancelled – I still managed to net a decent profit from the endeavor. Besides these two play sets, I did make one other reactionary purchase…

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

When I announced the purchase on Twitter (@sigfig8), my purchase decision was met with mixed reviews. Some denounced the buy, suggesting there was no room to profit from the Modern Event Deck. Others applauded the choice and even followed suit, arguing there was no cheaper way of obtaining the cards within the set. Naturally my primary goal was profit, but if the best I could do was buy all the singles in the Event Deck at a significantly discounted price, I wouldn’t be too unhappy.

Hindsight is 20-60?

A few weeks later, I should be able to look at price trends and identify whether or not I made the right decision. However, I’d argue the data is still a bit unclear even now. I want to take a deep dive here, because this premise pops up over and over again – a card jumps in price and normal copies are bought out first before people consider possible preconstructed deck targets.

First, let’s take a look at the current price on the Modern Event Deck.

Factoring in shipping, Modern Event Decks have been averaging a completed price of $91. This is a 20% increase versus what I paid for my sealed deck – a solid profit, right? Well, not really. By now I’m sure everyone is familiar with the profit erosion that takes place when selling sealed product on eBay. Take 10% off the top for eBay fees, 3% for PayPal’s cut, and another $8 or so for our United States Postal Service and you’re left with a net of around $71. Bye bye profits!

Next, I’ll take a look at buy list prices to see what sort of value can be driven from quickly selling the singles within this box, hassle free.

Using Star City Games’ buy prices, one could immediately ship key cards from the Modern Event Deck and net about $77. After bubble mailer and $2.60 for shipping, that’s a net of around $74 – with an entry price of $76, this represents a virtual break-even. I suppose if I wanted store credit, I could net myself about 20% in gains, but I would be left with a hundred bucks in store credit for my $76 cash purchase. This wouldn’t be the worst return, but I would be hard-pressed to convert that credit into pure cash gains.

The verdict: strictly from a profitability viewpoint, buying the Modern Event Deck has not paid off. Despite how the numbers fall, however, I’d argue there’s still a positive spin to this analysis.

Consider one’s decision to purchase the above singles now, on TCG Player. The total cost of buying LP or better copies of all the cards above is around $125. This price doesn’t even include all the cards you couldn’t buy list to Star City Games, nor the handy box and spindown die. Therefore, even at its current eBay price of $91, the Modern Event Deck still offers tremendous value over buying individual singles. This comparison makes an entry price in the $70’s extremely attractive, even though there’s no easy way to immediately profit off the delta.

With all this data in hand, I’ve come to the conclusion that buying the Modern Event Deck in the $70’s was a good decision. Even though there’s no immediate out for profit, there are two factors that tip the balance in the positive direction for me. First, if someone really wanted to, they could list all of the individual singles listed above on TCG Player and net a decent profit. Taking 15% off the top line to factor in fees and shipping still nets over $100. Granted, you may have a difficult time selling some of the smaller cards I listed. But even selling just the City of Brass, Elspeth, Inquisition of Kozilek, Isolated Chapel, Path to Exile, Relic of Progenitus, and Sword of Feast and Famine out of the deck would be enough to profit. Plus you’d have a bunch of smaller trade fodder left over.

Secondly and more importantly, the collection of cards one immediately acquires via the Modern Event deck offers up significant upside for the long term. Ghost Quarter and Relic of Progenitus will continue to be mainstays in Modern. Path to Exile is the premier removal spell of the format. Sword of Feast and Famine and Elspeth offer up terrific casual upside. The B/W lands have been gradually rising lately, and City of Brass will always be above bulk no matter how many times it gets reprinted. And last but not least, those two Inquisition of Kozileks carry more upside as long as they continue to dodge reprint.

The fact that the Modern Event Deck is a self-contained diversified investment in Modern should not be overlooked. This is perhaps the most attractive aspect of the deck itself. Besides, a few Godless Shrines and a couple other cards and you’ve got yourself a Tier 2 Modern deck to play in local events.

Extrapolation

The Modern Event Deck is the most recent occurrence, but other card spikes have led to interesting discussion around preconstructed decks. When Birthing Pod became expensive, the Spiraling Doom Event Deck was an interesting target. The Dark Ascension Event Deck contained two copies of the once-$20 artifact, though it offered little else of value. The Jace vs. Vraska Duel Deck boasts a copy of Remand alongside some casual favorites in the form of two Planeswalkers, Night’s Whisper, and Future Sight. As Remand rebounds in price, this could become an interesting pick-up eventually. The Gleeful Flames Event Deck is also worth keeping an eye on, as it contains two copies of Modern staple Inkmoth Nexus. Unfortunately other than three Torpor Orb and a single Dismember, there’s not much else of interest in the list.

The New Phyrexia Event Deck Rot from Within is marginally more interesting, containing an Inkmoth Nexus, four Mutagenic Growth, a Green Sun’s Zenith, a Melira, and two Vines of Vastwood. Buying this deck gives you a fraction of the Modern Infect list, so you get some narrow exposure to a singular Modern strategy.

Plenty of other examples exist, but the overall premise remains the same. Sometimes a card will spike in price even though it’s in an older preconstructed deck. That respective preconstructed deck could have the potential to roar higher in price as a result. However, applying some of the rationale I present above, I believe one should remain highly cautious before committing funds to such a purchase. A quick glance at the above lists, and it is apparent there’s little else in those products besides the lone most valuable component. Therefore, you don’t get the added benefit of additional upside in nearly the same way as the Modern Event Deck.

Honestly, I wouldn’t consider any of these other options as worthwhile buys even in the face of a price spike. These products are deriving their elevated value from a single card within, and there’s little other upside. If Inkmoth jumps to $70, then of course buying an Event Deck with a single copy for under $70 is a no-brainer. Just don’t get caught paying a premium for other bulk you’ll never gain upside from.

Wrapping It Up

A few newer preconstructed deck lists offer up some attractive buys. My favorite option is the Magic Origins Clash Pack.

The product, which sells for under $30 shipped, contains a number of valuable cards with plenty of long-term upside from Modern play. This includes a Windswept Heath, a Collected Company, a Siege Rhino, an Anafenza, and possibly a Dromoka’s Command. This is definitely a product you’ll want to keep in the back of your mind should we see a price jump in fetches or Collected Company any time in the future. As we’ve witnessed with Inquisition of Kozilek, players will be very swift in buying up copies of the card. But they often are slower to drive up prices on preconstructed products where the individual singles may be lingering.

If you’re interested in pursuing this strategy, please learn from the data I presented earlier. Just because a card in an Event Deck jumps doesn’t mean there’s ample profits to be made on that Event Deck. In reality, I can’t sell my Modern Event Deck for profit yet. In the same way, a double-up of Collected Company will not mean Origins Clash Packs will become immediately profitable. They may be a great way to acquire copies of Collected Company for use, because you’ll get some other good cards for “free” in the bargain. Just don’t expect to make significant bank with the endeavor. If you approach such investments as ways to obtain copies of diverse long-term cards, however, then you’ll be quite pleased with the results.

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

Speaking of Collected Company, did you know the Dragons of Tarkir rare is currently sold out at Star City Games with an $11 price tag? The instant is all over Standard, and it wouldn’t surprise me if one day we saw this spell fetching up Tarmogoyfs and the like in Modern. The fact this card isn’t rotating for a while yet adds additional upside, making the Clash Pack a very interesting long-term buy…for the singles, more-so than the potential profits.
Another card I mentioned earlier is also sold out at Star City Games: Inkmoth Nexus. The land is currently retailing for its highest price ever – $39.99! I would never have expected this card to achieve such lofty prices. Then again, I also never would have expected Wizards to ignore reprinting this land for so long. It will happen eventually. Until then, I guess this card goes to $50 retail next?
Despite having its price butchered from reprint in the Modern Event Deck, Sword of Feast and Famine really offers healthy upside. There are only three copies of the equipment in stock, and it’ll cost you $16 to get one from Star City. These swords are casual and Commander favorites, and without additional reprint they are only going to rise.

MTGPrice Blog