Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch (Draft/Modern): Day 1 Coverage

February 5, 2016 James Chillcott 8 Comments

The stage is set for three days of amazing Magic: The Gathering duels. With the recent banning of both Splinter Twin and Summer Bloom, we are in position to experience a brand new meta-game with over a dozen viable archetypes. After weeks of secretive testing, the top Magic teams on the planet have gathered for another epic battle between top Magic: The Gathering pros from across the globe. Over $250,000 USD is up for grabs, with the winner taking home a hefty $40,000 after three days of intense competition in Atlanta, USA.

As you may recall the Pro Tour now features a mix of booster draft (Oath-Oath-BFZ) and constructed formats (Modern in this case) with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 1-2pm EST.

For the MTG Finance community, the question of the day is which decks will rise to dominance in the post-banning Modern field. At the last two StarCityGames Modern Classic tournaments the top 8 included a relatively predictable field of Infect, Burn , Tron, Affinity, Jund and Scapeshift and multiple instances of Merfolk but it remains to be seen whether any of the major pro teams have managed to hold back an especially spicy brew that could establish a position of dominance this weekend.

Could the plethora of new Eldrazi deck enablers from Oath of the Gatewatch take some version of that deck to the top tables on the back of overpowered mana acceleration? Will an underplayed deck from the previous metagame suddenly end up perfectly postioned? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?

So far the Expedition lands in Oath of the Gatewatch have failed to suppress mythic and rare prices in that set to the extent that occured with Battle for Zendikar. We also have a Standard rotation on the horizon in April, so any cards from Khans of Tarkir/Fate Reforged may be slow to respond to camera time. Perhaps more opportunity lies with any remaining Modern staples that have so far failed to hit a spike during the January buying frenzy last month.

Many of the top teams have been in stealth mode for the last couple of weeks, furtively holed up in hotels and AirBnB pads, attempting to break a format open that has is as diverse and open as it’s ever been.

Pre-Game Top 8 Contenders

The early weeks of the new Modern format have demonstrated a fairly diverse set of Tier 1 strategies that have a chance to take the trophy this weekend:

Aggro

Infect
Affinity
Temur Delver/UR Delver
Zoo Burn
Boggles
Merfolk
Eldrazi Aggro (unproven, but likely to show up on power level)

Mid-Range/Control

Jund
Tron
Eldrazi Mid-Range
BW Tokens
Abzan Company
Grixis Control
Lantern Control

Combo

Scapeshift
Goryo’s Vengeance
Ad Nayseum
Storm

With all of the intensive team testing this week there’s also the distinct possibility that this weekend will mark the debut of a sweet new brew, with my bet being on either an Eldrazi Aggro strategy or an updated combo deck using new pieces from Oath of the Gatewatch. With the Modern rounds starting before most of us are home from work, the stage is set for first mover advantage if an unexpected deck jumps out to an early lead in the hands of a reliable pilot. Which deck are you rooting for?

Cards to Watch

With many Modern staples already having experience large price spikes in the last month, most of the speculation potential lies with relatively new or long shot Modern staples. Here are a few of the interesting cards on our radar this weekend:

Inkmoth Nexus: Poised to Poison

Already on the receiving end of a spike this week, this single printing Infect 4-of from the deck that won the last major Modern tournament has relatively few copies available under $40. With a reprinting unlikely prior to Modern Masters 2017, there is definitely room for this card to top $50 on the strength of further Top 8 appearances. Noble Hiearch, a previously $80 card, could also be set for gains as a 4-of in Infect, with the MM2 foils being particularly low.

Odds to Top 8: 4 to 1

The Oath Eldrazi Gang: Eldrazi Mimic, Thought-Knot Seer, Reality Smasher

B/W Eldrazi had already proven to be a viable archetype in Modern before the release of Oath of the Gatewatch, largely on the back of the broken combo of Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth and Eye of Ugin allowing for the generation of the equivalent of four mana on the second turn. The downside to that strategy was a vulnerability to get stalled out before hitting Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger mana. Now however, the Eldrazi pilots have a plethora of options in the 2 to 5 casting cost range, including some incredibly efficiently creatures with built in card advantage. Will a new Eldrazi brew manage to take a top slot and prove the longevity of the archetype? Could Eye of Ugin be too good for the format? Let’s see how it all plays out.

Odds to Top 8: 5 to 1

Respect the Fish: Harbinger of the Tides

Merfolk has quietly been putting up big results all season in Modern despite being dismissed by many players as Tier 2. At the SCG Classic in Atlanta two weeks ago, Merfolk finished 2nd, 3rd and 12th, which is as close to dominant as any deck ever gets in Modern.

Meanwhile, Harbinger of the Tides has largely been untouched by the recent Modern spikes, despite being a constant 4-of in the deck. This resistance to price movement is likely sourced from a combination of price repression from Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy being the same set (Origins) and the fact that the card is limited to use in Merfolk alone, but a great result this weekend could finally mark this card as a Modern staple and result in solid price appreciation.

Side note: Keep an eye on Spreading Seas this weekend, as a key Merfolk common with a single printing, capable of demonstrating gains alongside Harbinger.

Odds to Top 8: 8 to 1

Jace, Vrin’s Prodigy: A Modern Player

Once an underestimated $10 pre-order, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy has now blown through the ceiling for a Standard legal mythic, spiking above $80 before falling back to $65 recently. An ever-present Standard staple and a card that sees play all the way back to vintage, Jace has largely been absent at the top tables of Modern other than in Grixis control builds championed by the likes of Patrick Chapin. At $90-100, foils are currently displaying a multiplier well below the usual 2x for a multi-format staple, but any significant camera time for this card at the biggest Modern tournament of the year could push the price tag up over $150.

Odds to Top 8: 20 to 1

Here are some other interestingly cheap cards, that could spike hard on unexpected strong play this weekend:

Descendant’s Path: This previously ignored rare from Avacyn Restored has long been in the same long-shots group as cards like Seance. Some buzz on social media this week speculating on a Conduit of Ruin/Path/Emrakul combo in an Eldrazi brew has led interested parties to buy out the card online. With no results of any kind, this one is likely to fall back to earth quickly, but any camera time at all might secure the current gains?
Jeskai Ascendancy: This formerly dominant Standard player has been sidelined for months at below $1, but recently gained new combo pieces in Oath of the Gatewatch that could inspire an enterprising pro to try and combo off in Modern. Odds 20 to 1

Stay tuned for Round by Round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch all weekend!

Round 4: Christian Calcano (Jund) vs. Ben Stark (Mardu Mid-Range)

Ben Stark’s opening hand includes Ajani Vengeant, Shambling Vent, Abbot of Keral Keep, Lightning Bolt and Path to Exile, showing off a brand new archtype. Both Abbot and Vent have big upside if they are further entrenched as Modern staples. After some back and forth Ben Stark takes Game 1 after a flurry of removal takes out Calcano’s threats. In Game 2, Calcano dies to his own double-draw off two Dark Confidants. Stark goes to 1-0.

Off camera, a Death’s Shadow apparently just double striked someone to death. Spicy!

Matej Zatlkaj (Death’s Shadow Aggro) vs. Shota Yasooka (Affinity)

We enter the match with the players matched at one game a piece. Shota Yasooka has Thought-Knot Seer in after sideboarding, a first on camera for Affinity. Stony Silence comes down a few turns in and injures the aggression for Shota.

Alejandro Cesa (Zoo Burn) vs. Bartlomie Lewandowski (Abzan Company)

These players trade off a game a piece. Anafenza, Foremost combo takes Game 3 for Batlomie.

Off camera, a Mono Black Eldrazi list with 3x Pack Rat, and 4x Endbringer (!) just took match 1 and will be on camera next round. This underestimated Eldrazi is just $1 for foils at present, but has three versions in circulation holding it back.

Round 5: Luis Scott-Vargas (Eldrazi) vs. Eric Froehlich (Kiki-Chord)

These players take a game each, with LSV running 4x Endless One, 4x Eldrazi Mimic, 4x Thought-Knot Seer. TKS into Mimic into Endless One puts the match away quickly, and LSV takes it.

After Chalice of the Void shut down an opponent on Turn 1 out of Shuhei’s Eldrazi build, a spike is on for the card, along with several key Eldrazi pieces. Eldrazi on the move include Eldrazi Mimic and Endless One. Pack Rats have doubled in price on MTGO in the last hour.

Dech Tech 1: Affinity w/ Frank Karsten

Fairly standard review of a known Tier 1 deck here.

Ben Stark is 5-0, having won 2 rounds with his Mardu Aggro/Control build.

Round 6:

Thiago Saporito (Eldrazi) vs. Jason Chung (Blue Moon)

Thiago also running 4x Mimic and 4x Endless One as well. Batterskull takes Game 2 for Chung. Jason Chung takes Game 3 as well to win the match.

Ondrej Strasky (Eldrazi) vs. Paulo Vitor Damo Da Rosa (Eldrazi)

Players trade a game a piece. Matter Reshaper on camera.

UR Eldrazi Skyspawner just took down Frank Karsten playing Affinity!

Round 7:

Raymond Perez, Jr (Infect) vs. Martin Muller (Death’s Shadow Aggro)

Death’s Shadow build back on camera in the hands of Martin Muller, featuring the namesake card as well as Temur Battle Rage, a card whose foils are still available at $3 despite showing up in numerous aggro Modern decks. Infect manages to steal Game 1 on an uber-pumped Dryad Arbor, slipping in non-poison damage with Muller’s shields down. Muller takes the match on the back of Death’s Shadow, Goblin Guide, Become Immense and Lightning Bolt.

Jason Chung (Blue Moon) vs. Alex Majlaton (Affinity)

Chung puts multiple copies of Pia & Kiran Nalaar into play and takes control of the match. Alex shows off the usefulness of Sea Gate Wreckage in colorless decks in Game 2. Chung manages to take Game 3 as well despite the repeated card draw from Alex.

Off-camera Ben Stark goes to 6-1 with his Mardua aggro control build.

Round 8

Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi) vs. Bartolie Lewandowski (Abzan Company)

The UR Eldrazi deck features Ruination Guide, Drowner of Hope, Eldrazi Skyspawner , Vile Aggregate and Eldrazi Obligator in multiples! The Abzan Company deck is running Liliana, Heretical Healer. Gavony Township ends up winning through a large board stall, and Lewandowski takes Game 1. In Game 2 a flurry of Vile Aggregates and Skyspawner beatings push the Abzan Company to the brink and beyond and the match is tied. Another board stall in Game 3 is broken up via the combination of Dismember and Vile Aggregate and UR Eldrazi goes to 8-0!!!

LSV Deck Discussion: Eldrazi Mid-Range

LSV claims that the Eldrazi deck may be the best Pro Tour deck since Caw-Blade.

Day 1 Wrap-Up

Only Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi) and Jason Chung (Blue Moon) are 8-0 at end of Day 1! Martin Muller is 7-1 on Death’s Shadow. Lewandowski at 7-1 on Abzan Company. PVD at 7-1, alog with Frank Lepore, William Jensen, LSV (Eldrazi), Paul Cheon (Eldrazi) and Andrew Brown.

The stage is set for an exciting Day 2.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Accumulated Knowledge, ProTrader

PROTRADER: Vintage Set Reviews, Urza’s Saga Part One

February 5, 2016 Ross Lennon 2 Comments

Hello, and welcome to a very special episode¹ of my set review series! So for a very long time, Urza’s Saga was the most valuable set in terms of rares. That distinction has since gone to Future Sight (as well as probably Modern Masters), which has the benefit of Modern playability to buoy demand. On the other hand, Urza’s Saga is under the thumb of the Reserved List, which means that any rares that haven’t taken off yet financially have potential. Also, because this set isn’t Modern legal, we are going to do the review similarly to the original Future Sight one; there is less to be gleaned from understanding how it fit into Standard since Saga nor any of the sets prior to or following it are in Modern.

Urza’s Saga had 110 rares. We are going to touch on more than half of them today. This was the last set not to include foils.

Barrin’s Codex

This requires eight mana and an upkeep to replace itself. It doesn’t use charge counters, so the opportunities of breaking this card are narrow. Not worth your time.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Casual Fridays

Foils to Pick Up

February 5, 2016 Cliff Daigle 7 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle
@wordofcommander

Last week I went over some Standard picks. This week I want to shift back to my first love, Commander, and highlight some foils that aren’t as expensive as they are about to be.

Basically, these are cards that are underpriced for their utility and especially as compared to their nonfoil price. For most cards, the foil price is about two to three times more, and in a lot of cases, the foil is much more than that. An example of the enormous multiplier would be Swiftfoot Boots from Magic 2012. There’s four versions at fifty cents each, and then the foil at $10.

Chromantic Lantern ($9.50 nonfoil/$15 foil): So this is the dream card for a five-color deck. It’s a little acceleration and it’s a lot of fixing. It sees zero play outside of casual formats, and the foil is only 50% more than the nonfoil. Expect this to correct itself to at least $30.

Doubling Season ($40/$50): Even the pack foil from Ravnica is only $55, and that’s just criminally underpriced for how popular this card is. There are three different foil printings, and that’s helped keep the price low, but the recent spike for the nonfoil hasn’t been accompanied by a rise in the price of the foil. Get some shiny versions now, and just be patient as they go up to $75 if not $100.

Chaos Warp ($4/$12): A lot of Commander’s Arsenal is underpriced. This is one of the cheaper cards, and it’s just so awesome in a color that really lacks for universal removal. It’s true that the Warp can actually change a problem into a worse problem, but that’s part of the fun. Interestingly, if this gets printed in another nonfoil set, the foil might really take off.

Hall of the Bandit Lord ($8/$18): I’m highlighting this card because the supply is already low (this was only in Champions of Kamigawa) and it’s not going to take much for it to spike. It’s an excellent candidate to show up in some Modern list as a fun-of and the price will just go bananas.

Deathrite Shaman ($7/$63): This sees far too much Legacy play to have this low a price on the foil. It’s simply one of the best one-drops ever, and it’s awesome in any casual format you care to name. I won’t be shocked to see this as a $100 foil within a year.

Soul of the Harvest ($0.50/$3): This is as staple as staples get. It’s a big green creature that rewards you for playing more creatures. There are multiple versions of this effect, but Glimpse of Nature or Beck//Call aren’t the easy-to-reanimate size of this creature. Garruk’s Packleader is a related card, but it’s had three foil printings. Token decks might prefer the Packleader.

Zealous Conscripts ($.75/$2): It’s a Kiki-Jiki combo piece. It’s a surprise way to steal and use a planeswalker’s ultimate. It frees you from Propaganda effects for a turn. It’s all this and more, for a very cheap foil price.

Ruric Thar, the Unbowed ($.50/$1.50): I’ll give you that this is an intro pack foil, and therefore there are more of them out there. The effect is undeniable, though, and something that you need to add to every one of your red/green decks. Plus, it’s a cheap price to buy in at and that’s always a feature I look for.

Managorger Hydra ($3/$6): I love foils going forward. This card is better than Taurean Mauler and works with all the green cards that enable shenanigans: Doubling Season, Hardened Scales, etc. There’s also Hydra decks to consider, as those are surprisingly expensive.

Phyrexian Ingester ($.35/$.70): This costs one more mana and one more color than Duplicant, which does make it worse, but it’s a better card once it’s in play. Duplicant can actually shrink, while this cannot be anything worse than its original 3/3. (Unless you’re exiling Char Rumbler. In that case, good job on the corner case!)

Sol Ring (lots/$30/$160): This is a tricky card. It’s been printed to hell and back but it’s just the best to have, better than a Mox and nearly as good as a Lotus. There’s only two foils, though, and there’s a huge gap between them. The early judge foil, with the original art, is $160 or so and worth every penny. The From the Vault version uses the more recent art but it’s the version that will be settled upon by those who want a foil but don’t want to spend the premium. This has a lot of version competing but picking up a few FTV at $30 is pretty reasonable.

Magister Sphinx ($1/$2): This should be a higher foil multiplier. The ability is busted badly in EDH, taking someone from 30-40 life (or even infinite life!) to ten. It’s from a small set several years ago and it’s a staple in any artifact deck. The color restriction is a problem but not that bad a problem.

Command Tower ($3/$30): Two foil versions to choose from, neither of which are easy to find. Which one you want comes down to preference, either for the art or for the foiling process, since Commander’s Arsenal looks a lot like the hated FTV versions of things. I know this is already a multiplier of ten but considering the number of people who want a foil version of the best land in your Commander deck, $30 is too low. I’d expect this to hit at least $50 within a year.

This is by no means an exhaustive list. If there’s other foils with a multiplier of less than two, or others you feel are undervalued, come on over to the forums! Share your knowledge with other ProTraders and let’s all benefit together.

Conjured Currency, Douglas Johnson

Spawnslicer Seas

February 4, 2016 Douglas Johnson 39 Comments

I really enjoy when I get to spend an entire article talking about a single card as a case study. I find it fun to break down every single aspect of a card, dissect the possible reasons and explanations behind shifts in price, and use that card as a textbook example for future buyouts, price spikes, or other shifts. My two other written examples of this in the recent past were on Spawnsire of Ulamog and Mindslicer, which were both interesting examples of phenomena in the Magic finance ecosystem with trends that were supposed to be easily predictable.

While Spawnsire was alleged to be a purely speculator-driven buyout, the levels of consistent demand that the card has shown since proved its true worth as a casual stalwart in 60-card kitchen table Eldrazi lists that were juiced up by the introduction of Battle for Zendikar. Now that a large number of those players have already picked up their Spawnsires for their non-competitive decks, we can see the demand for the card recede; Oath of the Gatewatch wasn’t nearly as exciting for Spawny.

Mindslicer has not been as resilient to decline, but it’s certainly surprised me that the card has not dropped to dollar-rare status after the past two weeks. While none of us will ever know exactly how much money the mystery person made by buying out all of the internet of this stupid 4/3, we’ve already seen the price drop to a more rational level.

It’s down 50 percent from the $10 that it was hanging at when I dedicated a week to discussing the buyout, and it seems to have settled for the most part. While I’m sure some of you are preparing to shout, “But DJ! The Master Buyoutmancer was able to maintain the price of Mindslicer at a level over 1000 percent higher than what it started at! You said that these evil people can’t make cards jump by ridiculous percentages and stay at those prices without actual demand.”

That’s right, I did say that. The key here is that we’ve finally reached a point in the race to the bottom where other stores are willing to partake in the transactions, and feel safe enough about selling Mindslicers at the new price that they’re putting the card on their buylists.

ABUGames (excellent buylist) and StrikeZone Online (eh…) are both willing to take your copies of Mindslicer off your hands, and pay you actual cash dollars due to their confidence that they can resell these copies at the new established price point. While everyone’s initial reaction (including my own) to the Mindslicer buyout was that it was going to fail, crash, and burn back down to bulk, the individual(s) who made the decision to purchase all of the available copies was confident enough that a new price would be somewhat sustainable. Instead of the good old Aluren example where the card was bought out and then forced back down to its original value due to no true demand, Mindslicer has proven against the odds that it has legitimate demand from stores and players alike.

Washed Off Topic

Wait, where was I? Oh, right. I was going to try and write another article about a card in which I’m fairly confident in preparation for the Modern Pro Tour (yes, the same Pro Tour that I said I couldn’t care less about on the latest episode of Cartel Aristocrats). Before I go any further, I’m going to make a tiny, tiny disclaimer. Yes, I own roughly 60 copies of this card. Yes, I recognize that my writing about this card has the potential to act as a catalyst, speeding up the process at which players purchase their copies in a race to lock in their sets before risking supply running too low. For the umpteenth time, I link you to Derek Madlem’s well-written article about The Observer Effect.

However… I believe that the Pro Tour and those watching coverage will have a much stronger impact on the price and demand of a card than my content creation here at MTGPrice does. Due to the fact that my article comes out on Thursday, February 4, and the Pro Tour starts on the 5th, you should have plenty of time to buy non-foils of this card if you need them for future Modern endeavors. I would hope that sellers on TCGplayer don’t cancel orders for a card that’s this cheap with such a low expected price jump, but you never know.

Foils

By the time this article goes live, it will probably be too late to buy foil copies of Spreading Seas. There are zero on eBay below $15, and the ones that are $15 are being shipped all the way from Europe. TCGplayer has a whopping two foils as of February 2, and they were both probably fished out of a toilet.

The only online vendor that I can personally find with any reasonable number of copies left is SCG, with twenty MP ones at $7.88 each (disclaimer on the disclaimer: I bought ten SP foils tonight at $8.99 each). For those of you who have been holding onto foil copies in anticipation of a future spike, I suggest selling into any Pro Tour hype you see, and trying to get around $20 for a solid double-up.

Non-foils

As for the non-foils, there are still at least 500 copies on TCGplayer alone, and another 100 on SCG. That should prevent any immediate “oh my god, Spreading Seas is a $5 common, the world is ending” tweets. I highly doubt that happens. Don’t buy a ton of Spreading Seas at $2 each expecting to make a billion dollars, because you won’t. If you happen to own some non-foils, I would wait and see what the Pro Tour does to the card. If Merfolk pounds some faces in or an alternate controlling shell shows up housing Seas, then we could be in for a nice little bump, mimicing the trends of Slippery Bogle and Wild Nacatl (speaking of Nacatl, Spreading Seas does an excellent job of making sure that cat stays wet, in addition to washing away the manabases of Tron and Eldrazi).

If Seas shows even a drop of on-camera play this weekend, we could certainly see a bump up to $3 to $4 on non-foils in the short term.

So what are your other spec targets for the Pro Tour? While I’ll unfortunately be too busy to watch coverage of the event, our own James Chillcott will be providing up to date text coverage to make sure you don’t miss any potential new decks or cards seeing play.

Until next week! By then, I’ll be on my way to Georgia, but I should still have an article up on that day to keep you busy.

End Step

Laboratory Maniac is four times more expensive than you thought he was. “Oh, that card is a silly little dollar rare. It can’t possibly affect me.” WRONG. Card is four freaking American dollars, courtesy of the non-competitive market. Excuse me while I run to the store and pull a dozen of these out of my dollar box before it’s too late.
Ad Nauseam is finally starting to perk up from its’ bottom of $2 to $3. If you need these or Phyrexian Unlifes, buy them now. The deck can be very hard to interact with, considering it draws its entire deck for answers to kill the Leyline of Sanctity that you put down.

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