PROTRADER: Lingering Thoughts From All the Hype

I want to kick off this article with some impressive numbers from the MTG Stocks Interests page.

  • 10: the number of cards that have more than doubled in value since last week
  • 21: the number of cards that have risen by at least 50% in value since last week

Next, I’d like to break that group of 21 cards a different way, attempting to categorize them by format. I’ll admit I’m making assumptions here but for the sake of discussion, this should be accurate enough.

  • 13: Modern cards
  • 6: Commander cards
  • 2: Old School cards

These numbers alone could be the basis for a multitude of articles. One could discuss the sheer number of movers and shakers on the MTG market. Someone else could write about the top Modern movers and highlight what they think is coming next (essentially what I tackled last week). Others still could focus on Commander, sharing their thoughts on the recent surge in prices of certain cards and relating this to the newest set of Commander decks that have now saturated the market.

And don’t worry, I don’t plan on dwelling on about Old School MTG except for one thought worth your attention: when I uncheck Alpha, Beta and Unlimited from set exclusions on MTG Stocks, I see an additional four Old School cards that have increased in value over 50% last week. The format’s impact is real even if you don’t believe the format itself is worth considering.

So What Is the Topic?

So much has been going on in MTG finance lately, and I have found myself chasing numerous buyouts and speculation opportunities. Someone will observe a card with low stock on TCG Player, make a comment, and suddenly the card will blow up in price. This is essentially what happened to Spellskite, and the rapid rise in top buy list price suggests this surge is here to stay for at least the short term, though a small pullback is likely.

Spellskite

The same goes for Inquisition of Kozilek ($12 buy price at Channel Fireball) and a number of other Modern staples.

As I scramble to keep up with this volatile market, two things linger in the back of my mind. It’s these two murmuring thoughts, which I believe many will overlook, that make up the subject of this week’s article.

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OGW Spoilers I’m Excited About

The first card I want to talk about that I’m really excited for from Oath of the Gatewatch is Nissa, Voice of Zendikar. I haven’t seen too many mentions of this planeswalker yet but I want to point out that she is a perfect slot into the previous Pro Tour breakout deck, Bant Tokens from Pro Tour BFZ.

As you might recall, Sam Black and crew piloted this deck to amazing success at the last Standard Pro Tour. Now, I’m not saying that this deck is going to take down a huge tournament right out of the gate again – that is presuming too much on my part, where right now really I’m just trying to get a feel where the metagame might be going. Dark Jeskai is a much faster and more consistent deck than Bant Tokens, which is why it has fallen out of favor since the release of Magic Origins and the ubiquitous adoption of Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy (the little Jace that could). However, Nissa adds some versatility and stall to the deck that is desperately needed.

Putting out 0/1 plant tokens and having the ability to pump your whole team is nothing to scoff at. She fits right into the curve at three mana, with a four mana followup Gideon being extra special.

Plus, since we’re playing eight planeswalkers in a deck like this there might even be room for the new Oath of Nissa enchantment. At one mana, we can’t discount the usefulness of this enchantment since it acts practically as a one mana land tutor (and if there are better cards than lands well so much the better!) and then on top of that provides perfect mana for the three mana Nissa into the four mana Gideon, which normally would be somewhat difficult at the best of times due to needing two green for Nissa and two white for Gideon. Being Legendary for this enchantment isn’t even a drawback – you’ll never need more than one in play at a time, so feel free to keep casting more to continue digging for cards you might need off the top of your deck. I really like this enchantment a ton, since it feels like a fixed Sylvan Library or Sensei’s Divining Top that is still fine for a format like Standard.

Nissa is currently preselling for $20, which I think is extremely cheap for a planeswalker that could definitely have four copies in the updated deck. Again, along with cards like Hangarback Walker and Gideon, Nissa adds another element of ongoing token generation and threat that needs to be dealt with. Typically, three mana planeswalkers have proven to be powerful and I would not be surprised at all for Nissa to help new and existing archetypes as the OGW Standard metagame pans out.

Oath of Nissa is preselling for a bit more at $6-$7, which I think is pricey for a Standard rare. Remember, we are in a totally new era for Standard rare card prices, so I’m not expecting Oath of Nissa (even if it is found in a playset in a Tier 1 deck) to ever stay above $5 for long. There are just too many Standard rares out there these days, and if you consider the amount of product that will be opened for Expeditions in this set, you have a recipe for long term lower prices across the board on all set rares. I mean, if Siege Rhino could never break $5 for long, I certainly don’t expect this enchantment to.

Next, I want to talk about this guy, Reflector Mage. This card seems really good to me. Obviously since it is an uncommon, the price ceiling is going to be something like $2, especially since it is a multicolor… but wow is that effect nice! I mean, this card could even see play in Modern or Legacy. Not being able to cast the card again during your opponent’s next turn is devastating, especially for combo-oriented decks. Plus, you don’t even have to cast this guy to get the effect – all you have to do is have him enter the battlefield, so the trigger still works with stuff like Aether Vial. Just wow, very excited for this card and the possibilities it has in Standard and beyond.

OK, now this card is what I think that Snapcaster Mage was supposed to be. Now, this card has limits that Snapcaster does not – first, it doesn’t have flash and it will always cost at least five mana to cast. So we’re not going to see any four mana Anticipates with a body being cast in Standard. Even though this is a terrible Snapcaster for eternal, you are getting a ton of value for you mana when playing this in Standard. It provides a 4/4 body with (some form of) evasion that primarily allows you to flashback an instant or sorcery card from your graveyard. Just because this isn’t Snapcaster Mage doesn’t mean that we should count the Dark-Dwellers out – on the contrary, I think this card will be great in Standard and I expect to see Atarka Red or other decks adapt it quickly in the new metagame.

Also, Commander is a Thing…

Along with some awesome new Standard tools, we’re getting some great Commander staples that I’m sure have been causing some buzz since their release.

Obviously leading the wave is Kozilek, the Great Distortion, which is the big nasty Eldrazi that all the casuals have been swooning over ever since #Oathgate happened where key pieces of the set were spoiled on /r/magictcg. This guy is going to have casual appeal for years and years to come, so the play here is to wait about three months after the set’s release and then pick up your copies for stocking away for a rainy day. Like the past Eldrazi bretheren (and even the new Ulamog, which is starting to rise in price again…) this will be a great addition to your portfolio for years to come. The key is to time the market right and try to get in on the low point, hopefully when it hasn’t found a home in Standard and the set has reached market saturation.

Holy crap is this Sphinx bonkers in Commander! As if blue wasn’t oppressive enough as it is! If this “resolves” (since there are ways of getting rid of this on the stack that aren’t counterspells) it is going to be so, so difficult to stop the combo player that just dropped this thing on the table.

This card has to be the one of the most protected cards in Magic, and that is saying something. Yes, you can still wipe this with something like Wrath of God, but you’re playing against a blue player! Who is almost always going to have countermagic to back this up. Sure, it costs a ton of mana, but in more casual playgroups I can totally see this thing running away with the game.

I’m actually really glad this card isn’t Legendary, because having this as your general would be super oppressive. Geist of Saint Traft is pretty bad but this would be even worse since you can’t counter it. Just my two cents, maybe I’m overrating this card, but when I first saw it I couldn’t believe that Wizards made a card that is such a potential lockdown against you.

Finally, the last card I want to mention is Thought-Knot Seer, which has been getting a ton of buzz from the Commander crowd. A four mana 4/4 with Thoughtseize+exile attached is really, really good. The fact that you get to let an opponent draw a card is irrelevant in multiplayer, since you can make an ally or other opponent that isn’t a combo player have a card.

Since most Commander decks play lands that generate colorless mana, this is an easy slot into many decks. I for one can’t wait to update my Karn, Silver Golem deck with all the great new toys in the set, including putting basic Wastes into there so I don’t get blown out by cards like Ruination or Wave of Vitriol!

Final Thoughts

All in all, I’m really excited for OGW for both Standard, Commander, and beyond. This set is much more exciting than Battle for Zendikar, because not only do we get Wastes and add a brand new Basic Land to the game, but we also get much more powerful Eldrazi and Allies (along with an Ally Commander, which has a five color Commander identity and is easy to cast!) that many players are going to desire.

Not sure if I’m onboard with whole 2HG theme for the release or whatever – personally, just always give me one-on-one matches. For those that enjoy that, though, you have something else on top of all the new cards to look forward to!

PROTRADER: Important Matters

Hey, happy 2016! The year is getting off to a pretty strong start with these preview cards that we’ve been getting (we will talk about them a little bit, but I’m ultimately saving strength for my set review portion). We are actually going to start this article (and this year!) off with a bit of a quick hits, just to cover all of the things that happened while I was off.

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Ranking Expeditions

By: Cliff Daigle

The spoiler has landed, and before I dive into what I want to buy (lots of foils, I suspect) I want to look at the other pretty toys Oath of the Gatewatch is giving us: twenty more Expeditions.

I’m going to rank them based on casual appeal, as the financial value has a lot of variation. Trade appeal is also a consideration.

ancienttomb

Ancient tomb: For people who build cubes, there’s already a special foil version out there. It’s not hard to find, but putting one of these in your commander deck is a powerful thing to do.

It’s also going to sting, so be aware.

Desirability: six out of 10.

 

manaconfluence

Mana Confluence: There is no shortage of lands that will enable you to be five colors. City of Brass, Rupture Spire, Unknown Shores, Shimmering Grotto, and lots lots more. This is from a very recent sent, before oil is not hard to find, but the art is more appealing as these things go.

Desirability: five out of 10.

 

wasteland

Wasteland: Financially, this is likely to be among the pricier Expeditions. Even the Tempest uncommon is up to $70 and there’s a couple of special foils. This will be a card lots of people want to have, and you should treat it as such.

I think every Commander deck should have a plan to deal with problem nonbasics (Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Diamond Valley, Maze of Ith) and Wasteland is a great answer.

Desirability: 9 out of 10

 

dustbowl

Dust Bowl: Speaking of great answers in Commander! I confess I didn’t know this had gotten up to almost $10, and its only foiling was the set, so that means it’s pretty hard to find.

I’m not sure the demand is there, though. The Bowl is a nice trick to have in EDH games but it’s hard to abuse like Strip Mine or Wasteland is. Fair cards tend to have fair prices, and I’d expect this to keep a fair price.

Desirability: 4 out of 10

 

forbiddenorchard

Forbidden Orchard: Another five-color land, and one that gets used in tricky scenarios where you want to give your opponent creatures. Something like Defense of the Heart, perhaps?

It sees a marginal amount of Legacy play, and a small amount of Commander use. Yawn.

Desirability: 3 out of 10

 

tectonicedge

Tectonic Edge: The existence of this as a promo makes me want to play a variation of “Flip it or Rip it” called “Rip it to pieces and set them aflame.”

Desirability: negative a billion out of ten

 

stripmine

Strip Mine: I was surprised to learn that there is only one foil version of this card, and that’s the From The Vault printing of 2009.

It is notable that Wasteland is legal for Legacy but this isn’t. Would making it legal in that format to degenerate decks? Aren’t the decks already degenerate? Looking at deck lists, the case could be made that this is much worse than wasteland. Most Legacy decks are only playing one or two basics, unless the deck plays almost all basics.

Does this mean we are about to see an unbanning? Logically, maybe, but as I’ve noted, I’m done trying to figure out what Wizards has decided to do.

Desirability: 6 out of 10

 

horizoncanopy

Horizon Canopy: A third-set rate from forever ago, two colors of mana immediately and can be cashed in for a card. Value all over the place!

Canopy sees play in a lot of decks in a range of formats. As such, this will be fighting for the title of “most valuable” among the Expeditions and one of the main ones you want to open.

Desirability: 9.5 out of 10

 

korhaven

Kor Haven: People assume this is Maze of Ith all the time. It’s not. It’s more expensive and more one-sided, and produces mana! The effect it generates prevents only the damage that would be dealt BY the creature, not to the creature. So you can block with lots of creatures and lose none.

Don’t overlook how good tapping for a colorless is about to become, either.

Desirability: 7 out of 10

 

eyeofugin

Eye of Ugin: This just went through a spike and it’s going to make a big splash in Modern. This one is perfectly timed and might be something people chase really hard, in addition to the Tron players already making it popular.

Desirability: 7 out of 10

 

cascadebluffs

Ten Filter Lands: I’m lumping these together even though there’s going to be a very wide spread on them.

These are due to bump a little because the use of colorless activation and spells is going to go up in all the formats. Other writers have said this but I’ll repeat it: your best choices are now filter lands and pain lands, because shocks, duals, fetches, etc., can’t make colorless mana. Filter lands have been due for a reprint, and this is perfect.

If you open one and you don’t want to put it in a Commander deck, just tuck it in your binder. It won’t take long for you to find a trade partner.

Desirability: between 5 and 10 out of ten, depending on what colors you play in Commander.

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