PROTRADER: Analyzing Standard as Battle for Zendikar Nears

Rotation is nearly upon us, and the spoilers are coming in hot and heavy. Full-art basics. New, fetchable dual lands. Full-art fetches and Shocks. Crazy, mythic Eldrazi. This set is going to have it all, and for the first time in my life, I plan on buying a case of the new goodies.

It’s true that we’ve seen a lot of things out of Battle for Zendikar. But there is one thing I haven’t seen in droves yet: Standard-playable cards.

Sure, Gideon is incredibly strong and will be played, and the lands of course will be good. But getting to 10 mana for Ulamog with what we have available doesn’t seem great, and while casting See the Unwritten into huge guys will almost certainly be a deck, I’m not seeing a ton of good ramp options to go along with Shaman of Forgotten Ways and Rattleclaw Mystic. Of course, those are two good options to start, so it won’t take much more to make it viable, but it’s worth mentioning that we’re not there yet.

Now, I know most of the set hasn’t been spoiled, so it’s a little early to start saying it’s not going to drastically shake up the format, because with so many cards leaving ,there’s no doubt that it will happen.

Still, given that Battle for Zendikar has all the makings of a set that will quickly become the best-selling of all time, I feel most comfortable looking at the current Standard format as a sign of things to come, rather than looking forward to Zendikar to being the driver in that equation.

With that in mind, looking ahead to next season begins with looking back. In this case, to the World Championship, where the world’s 24 best players met and battled it out (congratulations to Seth Manfield for winning, by the way). The World Championship was fun to watch, and I believe it’s a good place to start when we evaluate the decks that will survive rotation.

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Rise of the Rise of the Eldrazi

PAX Preview Pain

One of the downsides to my articles being published on Thursday means that I’m usually pretty late to the party for any Magic news that was shown over the weekend. For example. I was going to spend a few solid paragraphs thoroughly expressing my disgust for how Wil Wheaton butchered the Battle for Zendikar preview show at PAX, but I’m not even going to attempt to hold a candle to Travis Allen’s beautiful explanation on how much of a vomitfest that was. Seriously, if you were thinking, “Maybe I should watch the preview show. Seeing a dumpster catch on fire has no value to the world, but it’s kind of entertaining…”, then forget about it. Don’t give them your clicks or views. Just go be entertained and informed by Travis, then come back here.

Wizards of the Coast, if you’re reading this. Hire literally anyone else to do the preview show next time. Pick a random guy or girl out of the crowd, and let them do the preview show with flashcards or a teleprompter. It would have been better than the middle-school presentation that I had to dredge through. The only things that kept me remotely interested in the show were spoiled cards, MaRo’s interesting design talk, and this guy that I’ve circled in the below image.

Screenshot 2015-09-02 at 10.47.23 AM

Every time they panned back to the crowd, this guy was sitting in that exact pose, giving off that “yeah, I’m not gonna clap for this bad meme personified, just give me the damn spoilers” vibe. Mystery crowd member, you are my hero of the weekend.

Eldra..gons of Zendi…tarkir

You know what? Forget it. There’s a clever joke in there somewhere, but I’m not going to sit here for twenty minutes and try to figure out what it is. I’ve got Magic cards to write about, not subheading puns.

My point is that back when Dragons of Tarkir was released, every goddamn dragon in the game suddenly went up approximately a billion dollars, just because everyone wanted to play dragon everything. Scion of the Ur-Dragon EDH, 60-card dragon casual, 78-card unsleeved dargon casual, you name it. Well, every dragon went up, except for the FTV copies of Bladewing the Risen that I’ve had for forever…

Anyway, the point is that with Battle for Zendikar quickly approaching, I think it’s time to look back at a few of the older Eldrazi and get in on them before any hype starts to lift them up off the ground. I want to look for safe targets that aren’t likely to plummet any time soon, and some of them will definitely be longer-term holds.

While BFZ won’t be the “Eldraziest Eldrazi set that ever had Eldrazi” as DTK was with dragons, I still think there are some safe pickups and holds that have room to grow. A lot of the dragons that picked up the price pace weren’t even good in EDH, but were just being purchased by casual players who enjoy slamming big, fire-breathing threats onto the table. We’re going to look at a few parallels here in the old Eldrazi set.

Spawnsire of Ulamog

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Spawnsires

At only $3, I really like Spawnsire of Ulamog as a pickup. It dodged all reprints up until now, it makes a lot of mana dorks, and the last activated ability is perfect for both Timmy and Johnny to get excited about. The annihilator 1 is pretty irrelevant, but who cares? We’re casting every Eldrazi ever. Spawnsire gets a whole lot of new tools with this set, and I don’t think he needs to see competitive or EDH play to get up to $6 or $7 on casual demand alone. SCG is out of stock on NM copies at the moment, but has plenty of SP/MP. eBay is practically dried up of non-foil copies, and there are still quite a few on TCGplayer. Maybe this doesn’t pick up until casual players start cracking packs and building decks, but this is a card I’m very bullish on. You don’t see me pick out spec targets very often, but this is one of them.

Eye of Ugin

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I’ve heard some rumors and suggestions on Eye of Ugin recently, so I wanted to clear the air with my thoughts. Eye of Ugin just got reprinted into dust because of Modern Masters 2015 by being rare instead of mythic, and you only really need one, maybe two in a deck. I’ll admit that I almost had a heart attack when I considered using it with the devoid mechanic, because Forerunner of Slaughter is technically colorless… but you still need to pay colored mana to cast it. Maybe there’s still something there, though. It makes you only need one black mana to cast Dominator Drone, and if you’re in black then you can run Urborg to let Eye tap for mana… I don’t know. Maybe I’m crazy. Being able to tutor for “colorless” devoid creatures isn’t irrelevant late-game, but there’s just so many copies in supply right now. I’m calling Eye a hold for now, because I don’t want to give up on the possibility that there’s a really cool interaction in the set that we haven’t seen yet.

Awakening Zone

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Awakening Zone has been creeping and crawling very subtly over the past couple of months.

Azone

It’s easy to not notice a trend of a card slowly creeping from $2 to $3, and Awakening Zone has shrugged off two multiplayer product reprints  over the years. It doubles as a repetitive token engine and ramp spell, and we could definitely see increased demand with the new Eldrazi. It’s always been a semi-staple in Commander decks that can make good use of the tokens, but additional casual demand could put it in the $4 to $5 range relatively quickly.

Keep an eye on this one, but I don’t think we buy in at the $3 it is now. If you want to buy a $3 rare, go for Spawnsire. Just be ready to sell this off at $4 to $5 if it makes it there. I still think it’s a good trade target at $3, especially if you end up being able to move soon-to-be BFZ bulk rares.

Eldrazi Temple

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How the mighty have fallen. If it weren’t for the back-to-back reprints, I would’ve loved this as a pick-up. Everyone would have. Being dropped down to uncommon from rare basically kills any chance for this to be worth anything in the next ten years, so don’t even touch it, unless you’re picking bulk and basically getting them for free. Sell them for a quarter to all of the new Eldrazi players and enjoy the small demand bump, but don’t go hoarding them thinking that you have a master plan.

Pathrazer of Ulamog

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Did you know that Pathrazer of Ulamog is close to being a $3 uncommon? Yep, it’s worth almost as much as a Gitaxian Probe or a Boros Charm, and those ones actually see competitive play. I always preferred Artisan of Kozilek in my EDH decks because of the bonus reanimation and cheaper mana cost, but I suppose there’s something to be said about a higher annihilator number and pseudo-unblockability. At $3, though, I wouldn’t expect this to see any additional gains. The rule here is identical to how you’re moving Eldrazi Temples: be happy with the new buyers, and don’t look back.

End Step

Now, let’s step back into something more recent. Shaman of Forgotten Ways recently shot up to $8 off the back of pure, unadulterated hype, but there’s no actual decklists to back up the price tag yet. Because of that, I made the executive decision to list my copies on TCGplayer yesterday, and they sold in less than three hours.

Azone

Nick is correct in that it’s not particularly fair for me to say that I sextupled up purely from speculation, because I paid buylist prices for them anyway back when they were $2 retail. I was just happy to unload them into the incoming hype, when I still haven’t seen a tangible decklist yet for any sort of green ramp containing the new Eldrazi. Mark Rosewater confirmed that Ulamog was the only titan left on Zendikar, so we won’t be getting Emrakul or Kozilek as backup (at least in this particular set). I’m curious to see if there will be anything else worth slamming down for 10 or more mana mana; if not, then See the Unwritten and Shaman of Forgotten ways could both very well crash and burn. I don’t want to be holding them when that happens.

Do you have any pocket picks that you expect to jump up from the BFZ spoilers? Let’s continue the conversation below, or on Reddit, Twitter, or Facebook. I’m not picky.

Calm Down!

By: Cliff Daigle

So the Battle for Zendikar preview event at PAX was last weekend, and there were some cards spoiled, and everyone went and lost their minds over the Expeditions, special foil-only, full-art lands that will show up a little more often than a foil mythic in booster packs.

My current understanding is that Battle for Zendikar will have 25 of these.  

I’ve seen a lot of people on Twitter and other articles decrying this super-mega-mythic chase rarity. I’ve added a little to those fires, I admit, trying to call these new lands “crappy duals” or “electrocution lands” (since they are worse than shock lands).

Allow me to say this clearly and rationally: Calm down about these new lands.

When foils were introduced, it was a nod to collectors. Mythics were introduced to improve Limited play but not having Planeswalkers as regular rares.

These Expedition lands are there for the same crowd as the Comic-Con black Planeswalkers: collectors. If you care about having one of these new lands, you’re in the same boat as people paying for the judge foil Terese Nielsen lands, or the promo Force of Will, or having the old-frame Swords of X and Y.

Two years ago, I asked, “Are you a Collector?” and I hope you know the answer to that question in yourself. If you have had the thought about these lands “I can’t wait to snag an Expeditions Steam Vents! But oh my goodness, what are four of them going to cost me?!” then you’re a collector.

Let me reiterate: These super-duper-mega-mythic cards are not new. These are reprints! This supply will be rather small and not affect current paper prices all that much.

I’m also of the opinion that these are UGLY. These aren’t full-art. These aren’t Player Rewards full art, or Game Day full art, with or without the bars across the text that they started doing recently. These are three-quarters art, with a weird hedron frame, and semi-see-through as Planeswalkers are.

If I open one of these, I’m going to move it out. I’m going to ask for the moon in trade and I’m going to get it from someone with more cards than sense. I know it could fit into almost any Commander deck of mine, and I don’t care. If I need fetches, they are already in decks. If I need filters or shocks, I’ll take care of that, likely on the cheap. 

To me, the play on these lands is to get rid of them. Looking at the judge foil fetches, they didn’t see a spike or a loss when it was announced that they would be in Khans of Tarkir, and so whatever the initial price is, that’s what they will stay at for the duration. Go ahead and hold it till the end of the block if you want, but I would be more than stoked to open these and then trade them for a big stack of regular shock lands, or anything else that you wanted to have.

How much would I ask for? Everything. Collectors want these things bad, and you should give it to them. Don’t be afraid to say “Well, this Expeditions Polluted Delta closed an eBay auction at $200, so I’d want $250 to $300 in retail value of cards.” These cards are going to be hard to find and even harder to dig up in trade, especially at the beginning.

I’m also going to refer you to two ProTrader articles earlier this week, explaining in more detail about what these lands are and how they affect the other cards around them.

As for the speculation about why Wizards did this, I think it’s to give an echo of what they did in Zendikar with the Treasures campaign, only this time, they are being upfront about it. There was never any official data revealed about how many of which card was opened, and while there were Power cards opened, there was also Cyclopean Tomb.

This time, we will know exactly what’s out there and about how many of them there are. Is this better or worse than what happened in 2009? Does having the information make the quest easier or harder?

I would object to super-mega-rarity if it was for new cards. Mythics aren’t that hard to find, but a fifth rarity is a concern. Since these are reprints, though, it’s not a big deal. Imagine if these Expeditions were given out as judge foils or a special event or something or other.

One thing seems like a given: Battle for Zendikar will be the most opened set in Magic history. Don’t expect anything from this set to have legs, financially.


 

PROTRADER: Battleship Graveyard

I assumed there was some sort of official battleship graveyard where the Navy scuttles old, decommissioned ships that aren’t big enough to have their own gift shop. I Googled it and the first four pages were all related to this song by a band called The Fall of Troy which… well, just listen. I’m possibly overcritical of bands like this because this song is so close to something I might actually listen to. If this song were 25 percent more The Used and 25 percent less Coheed and Cambria I could possibly get on board. There may be some sort of battleship graveyard after all, but I stopped going through Google results while this song was playing. If it helps you like it helped me, I used an old standby to cleanse my palate after that song. Kidding, I listened to this instead.  Okay, real talk: this song actually helped rinse the taste of The Fall of Troy out of my mouth so I could concentrate on writing an article.

And if we’re talking about scuttled battleships then we’re probably talking about a card that makes graveyard shenanigans fun and doable and which could buoy some graveyard-related cards, right? When you’re right, you’re right. However, what changed recently that has me thinking about the graveyard? The answer might surprise you.

ulamogtheceaselesshunger

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