Magic Origins: A First Look

June 22, 2015 Jared Yost 8 Comments

Magic Origins spoilers have slowly been trickling out from the Mothership and beyond, so let’s take a look at some of the previews we’ve been given so far and what it could mean for Standard and other formats.

Planeswalkers

The planeswalkers of the set have been spoiled and it’s the first time we’ve seen walkers that start as legendary creatures and transform into planeswalkers when a condition is met for them to trigger their “spark”.

Kytheon / Gideon

Wow, this has got to be the most insane Savannah Lions variant the Magic community has received yet! So this is what a one mana planeswalker looks like (well, sort of). We’ve all wondered how Wizards would be able to print a planeswalker at one mana as a balanced card and I think we have our answer here.

Of course, the only downside to Kytheon is his legendary status. Only being able to have one Savannah Lions out on the field at a time is a bummer in white weenie decks but the great thing here is that he dies pretty easily, so the odds of you having one stuck in your hand for a long time are almost zero. A similar case study here is Isamaru, Hound of Konda. Even though it is also a legendary creature, in Kamigawa Standard he was still played as three to four copies per aggro deck even with the legendary drawback. This makes me think that the legendary status will matter but not as much as as legendary creatures that cost three or more mana. But wait, I haven’t even discussed the indestructibility! For three mana, having a way to ensure that Kytheon becomes Gideon is super important for such a fragile 2/1 body. You could also just sit on him if you need a blocker, making him indestructible and chumping non-tramplers all day. So basically, the card is nothing but upside as long as you don’t get another one or two of them stuck in your opening hand or within your opening draws.

The Gideon counterpart is also pretty awesome. Gideon Jura was certainly played in Rise of Eldrazi standard, and Kytheon offers us a Jura-mini just for attacking and beating face. Unfortunately, this Gideon doesn’t kill creatures (let’s be real, for one mana that would just be way too powerful to -2 to kill a creature) but it can boost its loyalty very quickly and mess with your opponent’s combat. Think of the +2 as an opposite Frenzied Goblin. Instead of being unable to block, the creature is forced to attack Gideon, removing it from attacking your face and thus “removing it from combat” and being able to block when your next combat phase comes along. The +1 also affects combat quite nicely, by having an attacker become indestructible or untapping an already tapped attacker and having an indestructible blocker for next turn.

All in all, Kytheon / Gideon is a very solid card and I expect it to see a ton of Standard play, especially in the fall when aggro decks will tend to gravitate towards the Top 8 of tournaments.

Jace

The text here is hard to make out on the right, so here is the Telepath Unbound text:

+1: Up to one target creature gets -2/-0 until your next turn.

-3: You may cast target instant or sorcery card from your graveyard this turn. If that card would be put into your graveyard this turn, exile it instead.

-9: You get an emblem with “Whenever you cast a spell, target opponent puts the top five cards of his or her library into his or her graveyard”.

Loyalty 5

Jace certainly feels like he has potential for Standard as well. Merfolk Looter has been well received in Standard environments throughout the years and a Looter with upside is very appealing. My current thinking is that he will slot into the Sidisi-Whip deck quite nicely, and will continue to support Sidisi, Brood Tyrant after Theros block rotates from Standard.

After filling up your graveyard, Jace can then create a mini Yawgmoth’s Will situation that gives one of your instant or sorcery cards flashback until end of turn. Even the ultimate ability is kind of cool, since it allows you to put a fairly fast clock on your opponent since all of your spells will also have Tome Scour spliced onto them.

All in all, this Jace doesn’t excite me in quite the way that Kytheon / Gideon did, but the control and Sidisi players among us will have a cool new toy to play with soon.

Liliana

I’m a huge fan of Liliana in eternal formats. I’m thinking that the new wave of Collected Company decks in Modern might try experimenting with her since they have so many ways of sacrificing creatures for value. Unfortunately, with the banning of Birthing Pod there are fewer ways to sacrifice your own creatures within the deck, but I think there are enough tools in a format like Modern to really push Liliana to the next level.

In terms of Standard, I’m not sure what type of sacrifice outlets we’re going to be getting in the future but currently the ones that exist are meh at best. She has weak stats for the mana cost and can be removed very easily before being able to be transformed into her ‘walker form. I think people will try to make her work in Standard decks but I’m not sure if the support exists to really get your mana’s worth.

Chandra

*Sigh*, why is Chandra always so bad? Red players never get a break. Remember Tibalt? Chandra isn’t that bad, but she is still pretty boring and lackluster compared to the other ‘walkers seen so far.

You have to do soo much work to transform her. However, one interesting trick is that you can attack with her to deal two damage, then cast a red spell during your second main phase to untap her and then tap her for the third damage in order to transform her into a ‘walker. So, sometimes you will only need one spell to transform her rather than two.

The planeswalker side is fine. +1 for two face damage is pretty nice, -2 for two creature damage is alright, and the ultimate ability if you get it off is certainly devastating. However, I’m just not sure that this Chandra has what it takes to see Standard play. She seems even more frail to me than Liliana, and I think that Liliana is going to have a hard time seeing Standard play currently. I think she would have been much better with Haste, however I didn’t do any of the play testing with the card to know if that would be too good or not.

Nissa

The text here is hard to make out on the right, so here is the Sage Animist text:

+1: Reveal the top card of your library. If it’s a land card, put it onto the battlefield. Otherwise, put it into your hand.

-2: Put a legendary 4/4 green Elemental creature token named Ashaya, the Awoken World onto the battlefield.

-7: Untap up to six target lands. They become 6/6 Elemental creatures. They’re still lands.

Loyalty 3

Creature Nissa is definitely underwhelming. A strictly worse Civic Wayfinder, Nissa doesn’t have much going for her ability-wise. Hey, at least she’s better than Chandra right!?

Seriously though, she has some pretty nice late game potential that makes up for underwhelming creature version. Casting her later in the game and activating the planeswalker transformation right away will be the most optimal play. Once Nissa becomes a planeswalker, it’s all upside from there. Her abilities are all very good. +1 to draw a card / drop a land, -2 to create a creature to protect herself (which can be activated right away), and then finally having a game ending -7 if the opportunity presents itself is a nice touch.

Keeping everything in mind, I do think Nissa will see Standard play since green midrange decks will be able to pretty consistently transform her since they ramp up to seven lands pretty quickly and her creature form is fine as a 2/2 blocker that gets you your next land drop.

Other Spoilers

Besides planeswalkers, we’ve gotten some other spoilers that I’d like to go over quickly here.

Avaricious Dragon seems cool and all since we just received a set that gave us “dragons matter” cards. However, I don’t think it is quite as good as it seems at first glance. A 4/4 flyer for 2RR has already been filled by Thunderbreak Regent nicely and I’m not sure if the decks that play Thunderbreak Regent want this card. I’m thinking that if this card sees play at all, it is going to be as the top of the curve in Red Deck Wins. In other words, it could certainly see play in Atarka Red as the finisher of choice once you’ve exhausted your hand of all the cheap one and two mana spells.

The unfortunate thing about the dragon is that it makes you discard your entire hand right away, since it triggers during your end step. So, I guess you have to be playing a super greedy deck as the card’s name implies. Not that burn is greedy or anything, but you could certainly make it greedier by including one or two of these bad boys in your list.

Ravaging Blaze itself isn’t that exciting to me, but the Spell Mastery ability is. See, Wizards has taken the direction of Magic much further towards creature based dominance rather than spell dominance. Now, they have created an effect that rewards you for playing instants and sorceries! I’m sure they’ve nerfed this ability in some way to make sure that it won’t be abused in Standard or other eternal formats, but it’s good to know that Wizards is also keeping mind that they need good instants and sorceries in order to keep the game fresh for players. Creature based dominance is fine, but when spells keep costing more and more mana for the same effect over the years it certainly gets annoying. Hopefully, we’ll get some exciting Spell Mastery cards that might even shake things up in eternal formats.

Dwynen (I keep saying Dy-wen in my head) is actually pretty good. An elf lord with reach, an extra ability, and a huge butt? I think this card will see play somewhere along the lines in a Constructed format, and even if it doesn’t this card will be casual gold for years to come. Lord effects are very popular among casual players, and Dwynen provides that effect on a legendary creature which is also nice for the Commander players among us. I honestly don’t think this card will ever be bulk since the lord effect and life gain ability are two things that casuals love. Plus, reach and an additional point of toughness just because? That’s just icing on the cake.

Really, Chandra’s parents needed a card? I’m not sure what role they play in her story or even the overall story of Magic as a whole, however I’m glad that they printed this card because it’s actually very unique for a red card.

I like the direction Wizards is taking red with creating Human Artificers like this card and Feldon. Though their has been a smattering of red artificers in the past, Daretti and company have reintroduced the red artificer creature subtype in a big way. This card is also breaking some color pie boundaries. A red card that generates 1/1 flying tokens when it enters the battlefield? That’s pretty sweet and definitely seems Standard playable to me.

However, the best part is that you can shock creatures and players with artifacts justs like Siege-Gang Commander does with goblins. So not only are you getting 1/1 flying Thopters with this card, but if it lives then it can start shocking things by sacrificing artifacts. That seems pretty powerful to me.

However, I guess the ultimate question is – is it good enough for Standard? I don’t really see this card being played in eternal formats, and maybe my own love for Siege-Gang Commander is making me think this card is much better than it actually is.

Wrapping Up

All the cards I’ve discussed today shouldn’t be preordered – I don’t think any of them are powerful enough to sustain their current preorder prices. However, they definitely offer a nice glimpse into what the future of Standard might look like. All of the planeswalkers seem playable, even Chandra if enough good red spell support is provided, so we’ll just have to wait and see what other support they are given (if any) once the rest of the spoilers are revealed.

What do you guys think? Did I miss the mark on some of my evaluations or do you also see some of the same connections and trends that I’ve noticed?

ProTrader, Sigmund Ausfresser, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: A New World of Arbitrage

June 22, 2015 Sigmund Ausfresser 6 Comments

In recent weeks I’ve dwelt on general finance strategy as we navigate this turbulent Modern season. I suggested trading out of Modern staples as they spike and acquiring some higher end, safer MTG investments. I also touched upon my emotional rationale for abandoning Modern – at least in the short term – to move into a format I am more excited to play.

I had planned on writing an even more bearish article about Modern this week. In fact, I was planning on making the bold claim that Modern was at a local “top.” Prices are destined to fall from here, right?

Except that MTG Price writer Travis Allen already did this. Right here. For your convenience, here’s the excerpt I’m most interested in:

“…while conventional wisdom seems to be that competitive seasons cause price movement, our evidence from last year doesn’t support that, and neither does the evidence this year. Last year, it seems that all of the spikes happened ahead of a GP, and then either remained stagnant or even fell after the fact. This year, we’ve seen a truckload of price spikes…

What’s our takeaway, then? Well, if history is any indiciation, it’s that we’re sitting at the top of the market right now. Modern staples will generally remain stagnant or even decrease in the next four months.”

YES. Very yes. I applaud Travis for sharing his bold and potentially unpopular opinion that Modern has topped. Frankly, I couldn’t agree more.

Now What?

Let’s assume you’ll consider what Travis has said, and that you’ll sell a lot of your recently inflated Modern staples. You know the ones I’m referring to: your $90 Snapcaster Mages, $50 Blood Moons, $15 Serum Visions, and $5 Lantern of Insights.

The decision to sell cards like these would generate a sizable cash position. So what do you do with all these newfound profits? Sitting on cash seems miserable, so there must be a better place to park resources right?

Well, you could try and acquire Modern staples which haven’t spiked yet. I can think of a few viable examples: consider Tendo Ice Bridge, which is already practically sold out across the internet (Disclaimer: I have 1 copy listed for sale at an artificially high price in case this spikes).

Worldspine Wurm is another example. The card was a four-of next to Nourishing Shoal in the creative reconfiguration of the Goryo’s Vengeance strategy. While Shoal went from $0.75 to $15, the Wurm barely moved a muscle. Guess which one is likely to have more casual appeal, by the way.

Despite these and a few other ideas, I don’t believe Modern is where you want to invest your recent profits. Even if these ideas do move higher, they’ll be facing headwinds all summer as the format quiets down. Better opportunities exist. I can think of lower risk propositions with immediate upside potential. In fact I can think of a number of ways you could apply some capital and generate immediate returns even by buy listing, and it doesn’t require collection buying.

It’s All About the Benjamins

I enjoy relating MTG Finance to stock market investing. I detect many parallels between the two, despite some dissonant opinions amongst the community. At last, this knowledge may provide actionable benefit. It all relates back to the strong US Dollar.

Actually, strong is an understatement. CNBC icon Jim Cramer prefers to refer to our currency as the “Super Freakin’ Strong Dollar”. As ridiculous as that sounds, it’s probably a more accurate statement. Here’s why:

Since mid-2013, the US Dollar has been on an absolute tear jumping in value by 15-20%. This, paired with recent weakness in the Euro, has led to some very favorable exchange rates for the arbitrage seeker.

The result: cards – especially high end cards – for sale in international markets are now more attractively priced. While the US Dollar has pulled back from its highs a few months ago, those in the U.S. still have a clear advantage.

I have a couple specific examples I can share.

First, if you have a friend you can trust in Europe then I’d highly encourage you to explore Magic Card Market (www.magiccardmarket.eu). Through a quick search, I readily found an arbitrage opportunity with Beta Scrublands.

One seller has a NM copy listed at 599 euros ($680 USD). If truly Near Mint, Star City Games will buy that same card from you for $900. Card Kingdom would even pay $910. I’m confident there are many other opportunities on the site if you’re willing to spend some time searching. I’d recommend looking at other high end staples such as these.

Don’t have a friend in Europe? No problem! Today your US Dollar can purchase more Japanese Yen than any time since 2011!

The implications to this are huge, if you are willing to buy from Japanese vendors. The good news is many Japanese vendors will ship directly to the U.S. One site I would immediately trust is Saito’s digital store front, http://www.hareruyamtg.com/en/.

Again I would recommend browsing some high-end cards, though I suspect with the currency conversion so favorable there are numerous opportunities across all formats. Through a recent search, I found a sweet arbitrage opportunity:

Using the exchange rate Hareruya generously provides, you can purchase an Alpha Savannah Lions for $123 + shipping. Channel Fireball is paying $125 for the same card, and Card Kingdom is paying even more: $135. In this particular example no immediate opportunity exists. Shipping will cause this deal to fall short of immediate profit (though I have requested scans of the card – it truly looks Near Mint). But there is a right to succeed here. I know of a few other solid opportunities on this same site by simply running searches. Putting together a larger purchase could help you overcome shipping costs, enabling arbitrage or, at the very least, very good deals!

Final Thoughts on Arbitrage

I must acknowledge this article is highly geared toward the US investor. In reality, there are opportunities for everyone to get involved. People in Europe can engage with those in the U.S. to help identify opportunities in the European market. The same goes for those in Asia who have access to the Japanese market. We can all work together and benefit from the gap that exists across continents.

I would also be remiss if I didn’t at least briefly touch on the risks associated with this endeavor. Shipping costs and condition are a huge factor – it’s not cheap to move cards over oceans, especially in quantity. And although a picture is worth a thousand words, it could also cost you a thousand dollars if it’s not high enough quality, causing you to mis-grade a card before buying. There are also currency conversion fees you need to consider. These are all powerful reasons for why opportunities are still aplenty. The risk is sizable and real. But so are the opportunities.

And if international deals aren’t your forte, consider some local “arbitrage” opportunities. High end cards can be very difficult to price correctly if you’re not heavily involved in this space. By searching one of the billion MTG Facebook groups, you may come across a steal.

A friend directed me to a particular Facebook group focused solely on “sick deals”. That’s right – you can’t list a card for sale in that group unless you’re at least 10% below eBay / TCG low pricing.

If you don’t like international orders and you don’t like Facebook, I have one last idea of how you can find attractive deals. I have one word for you: misspellings.

Check out the website www.fatfingers.co.uk. This website allows you to search every country’s eBay site for common misspellings of eBay listings. I was skeptical at first, until I tried it out. Believe me when I say, this site works.

These Taiga prices may not be the most attractive, especially given their poor condition, but the proof of concept is still there. Notice how both these listings currently have 0 bids? That’s probably because only a handful of people have actually seen these listings. If nothing else, the site can be very entertaining – you’d be amazed at the many ways some of these Magic cards can be misspelled!

Wrapping It Up

With spring’s Modern GP behind us, perhaps we are once again seeing a peak in Modern staples. If this is true, the time to sell could be right now. I have been moving out of Modern very actively in recent weeks, putting my money into older, more stable cards. If history repeats itself, we could see a price bump on stuff like Dual Lands and Legacy staples later this summer or early fall. And even if we don’t see a sudden spike, these are still very solid cards to park your money. You could do much worse with your recent profits.

If you feel like trying something new, give a gander to the websites I mentioned above. The strong US Dollar can drive some very attractive deals on international sites – especially in Europe and Japan where currencies are particularly weak. While I haven’t pulled the trigger just yet on these opportunities, I have been watching them closely in recent weeks. Once I accrue some additional capital I just may make my move.

Just proceed cautiously, as there are risks associated with buying internationally. Fortunately those risks can be reduced by placing larger purchases to overcome shipping costs, and asking for card scans before buying. Using common sense, you should be able to navigate the pitfalls of international buying, leading you to profitable arbitrage opportunities. At the very least, consider international shops (even just north of us in Canada) when looking for attractive prices driven by currency exchange.

And if you insist on staying domestic, give the Facebook groups a try. You never know what deals you may discover.

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

I’m not kidding when I say Tendo Ice Bridge is all but sold out on the internet. I see 3 copies on TCG Player and a couple on eBay and not much else. Star City Games is currently sold out at $5.85 but I suspect they’ll relist higher when they do get more copies in stock.
Wurmcoil Engine’s price took a hit when it appeared in a Commander product. But since bottoming out last winter, the artifact creature has steadily risen. Star City Games is sold out of nonfoil copies of the card. That $15.35 price tag could approach $20 before the summer is over, especially if Tron remains popular in Modern.
I’m going to go out on a limb here. A while back I noticed SCG was frequently sold out of Power. Every time they would get a Mox in, the card would sold quickly thereafter. Then Star City Games shook the entire Power 9 market by bumping their buy prices up significantly. Since then Power has stuck at a much higher price than before. I’m noticing a very similar trend on A/B Dual Lands. They have almost none in stock, despite their already aggressive buy prices. It would not surprise me to see them move the entire market on A/B Duals in the next 6 months should this trend continue.

Casual Fridays

Being a MTG Dad

June 19, 2015 Cliff Daigle 19 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

First of all, Happy Father’s Day to my dad and all the MTG Dads out there!

One of the themes of this game is that it grows when we teach someone how to play it. Some people never find a teacher, they learn via Duels of the Planeswalkers and then Magic Online, but most of us learned from one person or a group of people, others who enjoyed the game and cared about it enough to spread it.

For a couple of years now, I’ve had one thought percolating in my head: How am I going to teach my two daughters how to play? When should I do it?

More recently, the thought has switched: Should I teach them?

My daughters are both under the age of three. This is not a question I have to answer soon, but I have two very conflicting views.

Personally, Magic has been amazing. I’ve met new people, I’ve had financial success with the cards, and there’s been countless hours that were just fun, because of this game.

But there’s a side that is more worrisome. Think about the last FNM you were at. Perhaps it was a Grand Prix, or an SCG Open, or a TCG Diamond event, or any Magic tournament. How many people there acted like winning at Magic was the defining quality of their worth as a person? If they won their match, the feeling was that they were the best in the world, the master of all they surveyed.

If they lost, they went on a tirade against luck, against the winner’s poor play, against the air conditioner working too well or not enough, etc. Maybe they look through the match and say “Of course they had a counter/pump spell!! How could I have missed the signals!?”

Is that the person I am? Is that the person I want my daughters to become?

How am I going to teach my daughters to play this game that I love so much?

Should I teach them? I’ve been thinking a lot about whether I should, because there is a significant number of Magic players who will look down on them for being female. I’m not trying to shame anyone, but let’s be realistic: You likely know someone who takes a loss harder from a woman than they would from a man.

My wife plays Magic, and I’ve seen the reactions of people who are seriously overreacting to losing to her. Would they be as salty if they had lost to me and not to her? Will they attribute losing to me as a lack of skill, whereas my daughter winning will be a matter of bad luck?

Let’s be honest for a moment. You probably know someone who, if they sit down to play a woman in a Magic event, they think, “I’ll beat her easily!” You might even have had this thought.

In all honesty, I have had those thoughts, to my everlasting shame.

I’ve been at enough events, large and small, to hear the talk and catch the conversations about how women there look. I’ve heard the derogatory comments and the snide remarks.

I’ve said nothing. By remaining silent, I’m contributing to the problem.

When you got ready to attend a large event, did you think about your makeup? Did you have to devote time to fixing and maintaining your hair? Were you forced to wonder how many of your opponents would be looking down your shirt?

It’s not acceptable to presume anything based on a person’s appearance. Someone at a Grand Prix wearing sweats and flip-flops isn’t automatically going to smell bad and have limited social skills.

I’ve seen women who don’t want to be involved in the game but are still present, and I wonder how many men would do the same. Which of us would go on food runs, would sit by silent but supportive, who would sacrifice what they want to do in order to be there for a game they don’t understand to be played with people who can be quite unpleasant.

I think that a lot of people, myself included, have taken the ones we care about for granted, and that’s something we should all reflect on.

I want my daughters to take as much joy in this game as I do. I’ve found some of my best friends through Magic, I’ve survived moves and other upheavals thanks to finding a new store to play at. I want them to develop a sense of confidence and insight by playing, just as I have.

But how do I do that?

For all that Magic has an awesome community, there are large and small forces at work. Body shaming is a thing, from taking pictures of buttcracks to a vicious set of Twitch comments about the winner of an SCG event. Even if those aspects are gone by the time my daughters are playing, how many gamers presume a level of inability from females?

Should I even worry about what those gamers are thinking?

At a store I used to go to, there was a man whose two children, a girl about eleven and a boy about eight (I think those were their ages, and if I’m wrong, I apologize) would be 3/8 of the draft pod. I would look at them and think of other activities I did and didn’t have with my family. How marvelously lucky he was, to not only play an awesome game, but to share that experience with those he loved most in the world.

My wife says I’m overthinking this. I want to shelter my daughters from even the spectre of negative experiences. Intellectually, I know I can’t spare them from the pain of the world, but that’s not the point.

She also points out that I wouldn’t be having the same set of worries if I had two sons instead of two daughters. She’s absolutely right. By thinking of my daughters as girls to be protected, I’m feeding into the same erroneous line of thinking. I would probably not be concerned for their mental state or their emotional health if they were boys. How ancient of me.

God help me, I’ve got enough anger issues to think about when it comes to my children. I’ve played out in my head what I’d do the first time some overbearing and belligerent jerk called out an error from my daughter and mocked her for it. Table-flipping may be an option.

What’s a father to do?

There’s always the option of letting them do the things they want to do. Ideally, I don’t even have to try to make it interesting to them. I’m a teacher; I know that trying to force interest onto a child is not going to go well. They just need to see my wife and I enjoying our games and they will follow along.

Maybe that’s the answer. Maybe I just let them be who they will be. Maybe they will be control players, who when they first see Dismiss they know there’s not a better spell to cast. Maybe they will be aggro, and have a Swiftspear tattoo someplace.

Maybe I’m just scared of all the things I don’t know.

Before I met my wife, before I had two beautiful yet frustrating children, I was really good at Magic. I was drafting twice to three times a week, all in person because I swore off MTGO. (50,000 cards that I have no hope of ever using or trading!)

This was way back, during Zendikar block. ELO ratings were the norm. I made the top 8 of a Zendikar sealed PTQ by maindecking Tajuru Archer, that silly ‘deal damage to flyers’ Ally who always killed turn two Welkin Tern. My rating was hopping between 1850 and 1900, and I was proud of making the top 100 in Limited play in my region.

None of that mattered when I met my amazing wife, or when my children came along. I left that area, and a vibrant Magic scene, because my family was more important.

I constantly wonder about the home lives of pro Magic players. I know, for instance, that LSV has a wife and a day job, and that he’s able to travel to PTs and events and such with extra time for testing and planning. It’s not like the pros are all solitary hermits; they do have families.

I wouldn’t enjoy such separation, even with a top prize of $40,000 on the line. I can’t believe how much I love the stupid and silly little things about being a dad. The youngest is just starting to eat solid food, and she immediately groks how to use a spoon, causing my wife and I to grin at each other like loons.

I anticipate these little things and when they arrive, it’s like wheeling a card I wanted to first-pick..except it is far, far better. My daughter climbs up the slide, then turns around and sits down, sliding back down the way she came, and the only one happier about it than her is me!

Compared with that, hanging out in a giant hangar with 2,000 other gamers playing for a max prize of $4,000 (before taxes) isn’t that important.

I wasn’t prepared for how efficiently my brain rewired my sense of what is and isn’t important. Magic was paramount. And then, without fanfare, it wasn’t. I never had to choose between them. I wanted the time with my wife and my kids. Sure, I want to play more, but it’s the dessert now. It’s no longer all-consuming.

My wife is going to read that last sentence and laugh. I listen to podcasts, I write weekly, I trade cards online, I watch Magic matches on Twitch and Youtube whenever possible.

I might not play it as much, but Magic is still a big part of my life.

I am certain that my daughters will at least learn to play. I have a battle box in mind, a rough outline, but I won’t need to build it for a few years yet (and there are years of cards yet to be released!) so that’s not an immediate concern.

I do not believe that they, or anyone else, should have to tolerate foolish behavior from gamers of any gender, creed, or belief. It’s taking me years to clean up my language and my behavior, because they don’t yet understand how people can have different personalities depending on who they are around. You don’t need to hear specifics on how awful I can be, but I’m trying to be better.

What I am going to do, and what I’m asking you to do, is to make sure that when you play, you be competitive as the setting calls for, as serious as you want to be, without going overboard. I’m not asking you to just be nice to younger players, as that’s quite condescending. Magic’s competitive history is replete with examples of teenagers taking down big tournaments.

I’m asking you to treat your opponent, or your trading partner, or anyone, with the decency you would want given to your family, your loved ones, your children. Don’t presume anything about the other players. Don’t let your own issues override the enjoyment that someone else is seeking. It’s possible to lose and still have a good time at the event.

I am also asking you to tell people, especially your friends, when they are going too far. Call a judge when someone in a game is derisively snorting at a player’s mistakes. Tell your friend that yes, he’s being an asshole and that he needs to tone it down.

Magic is an easy game to lose at. Don’t make it a game about losing in life as well.

Accumulated Knowledge, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Player Finance – Tournament Finance 101

June 19, 2015 Ross Lennon 1 Comment

Today’s article is going to be the first in a series of semi-related subjects. The theme of the next few weeks is something that gets kind of lost in talks about Magic finance: how to weigh decisions and opportunities as a Magic player, and not just as a finance person. Today, the subject is going to be making the best financial decisions regarding tournaments.

The best example of what I mean is taken from a recent tournament experience that I had with a friend of mine. The two of us were going to attend a TCGplayer Platinum event (a Standard 1K, but it also gave out playmats and points down to top 16) that was being held in Orlando. That’s a little bit of a drive, so I got up pretty early to make sure I was packed and able to eat a decent breakfast. My buddy texted me at 8:00 a.m., half an hour before I was supposed to pick him up, to tell me that there was a Modern PPTQ being held much closer to home later that day. I’m not sure how I was able to develop my response so quickly, but it was (verbatim), “I’d rather pay $30 and win cash than pay $25 and win Dragons of Tarkir packs.”

Choose Wisely

There are a lot of Magic tournaments happening on a lot of different levels in the US right now. While central Florida has always had a strong Magic offering, even in the game’s lean years, it has never been as popular as it is today. This creates the situation of occasionally having to decide which tournament is worth attending. Even if you are not a competitive player and are only looking for trades, the following breakdown should have a lot of information to consider. The type of tournament can often tell you a lot about the other people that will be in attendance, which is a good predictor of whether or not you will find desirable trading partners.

First, what type of tournament is it? This is the most obvious question to ask, but you have to make sure that you unpack the answer fully. Obviously a Legacy and Vintage tournament is going to draw some high-rollers with big collections, but if it is scheduled against a large Standard tournament down the street, it may not even fire off.

More important than the format (because that stuff you can probably figure out on your own) is determining who is involved in running the event. Take the example I discussed up top: my choices were a Standard cash tournament (backed by TCGplayer) or a PPTQ (which is run solely by a local store with the PTQ invite coming from WOTC). In order for a store or event organizer to run a TCGplayer tournament, it has to buy a package from the company and adhere to the rules set forth (the same is true of SCG events). The TCGplayer Platinum event only had 20 players, but because TCGplayer mandates that any tournament run in its name always honor the advertised payout, the tournament organizers couldn’t flake out at the last second (although I’ve seen some try). This means that the TO is required to give out the full $1,000 plus the playmats, points, and other crap that they promised it would, or risk never being allowed to do another one again (although, with only 20 people showing up, that may not be a bad thing).

The PPTQ, on the other hand, had over 50 players, crammed into a much smaller location (needless to say, we were extremely lucky we picked the event we did). The PPTQ tournament organizer didn’t have to pay the upfront cost of a “tournament package,” nor was he beholden to any guaranteed prize support beyond the PTQ invite (which is of no cost to the TO). Both tournaments cost $30, but the winner of the 1K got a guaranteed $400, while the winner of the PPTQ got a box of Modern Masters 2015 and the chance to play in an even larger tournament to make the Pro Tour. If we can assume the price of a Modern Masters box is $200 to $225 (which is what most are clearing for on eBay), then the invitation needs to be worth roughly $200 for the tournaments to have equal payouts (the invite, to be fair, does include that Liliana promo; also, I am ignoring the potential of selling the playmat and point cards for the 1K winner). And while I don’t have written confirmation of what the prizes for second to eighth place were for the PPTQ, what I’ve heard anecdotally doesn’t stack favorably against the payout from the 1K. Also, apparently the AC broke at one point (which is not a good thing to happen to a room filled with Magic players in June in Florida).

In all honesty, I knew that the cash tournament would likely be pretty small, but I didn’t expect it to be less than half the size of the PPTQ (which I did expect to be at least somewhat larger). The cash tournament, as part of TCGplayer’s package, was advertised on the front page of TCGplayer, and got mentioned in some of the constant contact emails that TCGplayer sends to Florida subscribers. Beyond that, in order to know anything about the event, you had to follow the organizer (a small game store outside of Orlando) on Facebook. When TCGplayer offers advertising in its packages, many game stores, especially those who don’t have a large presence in the greater community, just assume that they are paying someone else to do the hard part for them. The truth is, most people don’t bother to read the constant contact emails, or they have tuned out the tournament feed on the right side of the TCGplayer website since it works as basically a cork board for the entire US.

The PPTQ system, on the other hand, is not advertised in the same way, but has the stronger backing of the Wizards website (which isn’t very good, but it has more reach). Since PPTQs are more “official,” and the PPTQ system is very important to players right now, they are more likely to seek them out. Because the current PPTQ system only offers a PTQ invite to the winner, there are a subset of competitive players who will seek out and play in every PPTQ possible, hoping to take one down. Whereas cash tournaments once supplemented a yearly schedule in between PTQs, now PPTQs are often held in competition with each other or one-of cash events.

So far, it seems as though players are valuing PPTQs extremely highly, likely due to their inherent scarcity and the idea that they have variable difficulty. A lot of people end up thinking that if a store that they’ve never heard of is holding a PPTQ, then it will be smaller and therefore easier to win—except that it appears as though they are going to draw a crowd regardless. The only PPTQ I’ve played in was a few months back, in a store with a small local crowd, and they were turning people away the day of.

This is another big factor to consider: is the tournament being held outside of the store’s physical location? PPTQs, especially those being run by stores without a lot of non-FNM tournament experience, are reaching the point where they often include a friendly visit from the fire marshal. The PPTQ the other week had 52 players in a somewhat small store, whereas the 1K was at a hotel (there was also a comic and toy convention the same weekend). The 1K, in addition to the package price that the TO paid TCGplayer, had to pay rent for the space for the day.

When tournament organizers have to pay rent, they usually let other people help, and this means that there was vendor space available! Yes, the twenty-player, cash tournament had two vendor booths (the store hosting the event plus one other). Vendor booths are a delight unto themselves, and if you know the store doing the vending, you can typically play to its strengths. I knew the alternate vendor at the event (I have a friend who works there, although he wasn’t present at the tournament), so I was able to unload a lot of Standard stuff I didn’t want into a Taiga and an Ali from Cairo¹. Most stores are not going to have the space to have a second vendor come in, even if they wanted to (and they don’t), so this cooperation is something you’ll only experience when a TO is shelling out a couple grand in rent for a day.

I’ve only played in one PPTQ so far, and my guess is that the quality trends overall with the quality of the store and its tournament history. I’ve read some horror stories about events being understaffed, although now that local stores aren’t hosting actual PTQs, those stories have seemed less severe.

A Little Self-Examination

Ultimately, you need to make the decision that best compliments your goals. If you want to play on the Pro Tour, then you need to play in a lot of PPTQs (and probably a healthy amount of Grands Prix, if we are being realistic)—there is no other way to get there.

But if you are like me, then you typically want to maximize your tournament opportunities. I don’t play in Magic tournaments every weekend, so when I get the opportunity to, I like to play in the one with the single biggest impact. Look at the value of first place compared to the value of eighth place, and then try to figure out what a top eight split would most likely be. This is the primary reason I am down on PPTQs: the most important part of the payout cannot be split eight ways.

The Star City Games IQ tournaments, by contrast, have fixed this problem by introducing a point structure into the mix. I’d like to see WOTC adopt this technology for the PPTQ system, but the company has publicly stated that it doesn’t want Pro Tours to be too big, which is a problem SCG doesn’t need to consider for its Invitationals. The IQ tournaments also have a guaranteed cash payout. Any time a tournament is giving out cash, it is nice to know that there is another name (SCG or TCGplayer) behind the TO making sure things go off without any snags.

Small Tournaments, Ranked

My personal hierarchy of (small) tournaments is as follows:

TCGplayer 5K (Diamond)
SCG Premier and Elite IQ (5k and 3k, respectively)
TCGplayer 1k (Platinum)
SCG IQ (the other tiers)
Not play Magic and have a lovely family game night
Money Draft with friends
Money Draft with enemies
PPTQ (Standard)
PPTQ (Sealed) – because nobody would show up!
PPTQ (Modern) – because everybody would show up!
Do that thing with my hand and a knife from Alien
SCG Open Trial
Grand Prix Trial
Throwing my cards into the sea while somberly reflecting on life’s pains and sorrows
SCG Game Night

Closing Thoughts

It’s quickly worth mentioning that while the SCG IQ events have a pretty high value, the Open Trials and Game Nights are basically playing slot machines that pay out in playmats or animal-themed trinkets. I never calculate the “value” of a playmat into my expectations of a tournament result, because so many of them are hard to move (this is because the tournament package mats have a higher distribution and less importance than one-off playmats, like GP mats).

TCGplayer points sell well because they can be used for byes in events, they can buy you into the big invitational that just happened, or you can get, like, Frank Lepore’s autograph. The typical value is 1.5 to twice the point value of the card, but sometimes you can negotiate for less. Then again, on the day of a 5K, I’ve seen people pay three times or higher.

Hopefully you enjoyed this first installment on tournament and player finance! And as always, if you know somebody who wants to buy a pile of ugly playmats, point them my way.

1 I blame Sigmund for making me want to buy old stuff.

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