By: Travis Allen
Welcome to day three of the MTGPrice ProTrader Magic Origins spoilers. I’ll be covering black, which may be the deepest on playables of any color in this set.
By: Travis Allen
Welcome to day three of the MTGPrice ProTrader Magic Origins spoilers. I’ll be covering black, which may be the deepest on playables of any color in this set.
By: Derek Madlem
There’s no such thing as a sure bet in Magic finance, though there’s a lot of cards that are pretty close. Looking at Magic Origins from a financial strategy perspective rather than a nostalgia perspective makes me feel like this set is mostly a trap.
We have the obvious turds like Soulblade Djinn, a rare that you might be excited to pick up in draft, but you’re going to be disappointed to see in a booster pack. Even a FOIL version of this card is never going to break $1 unless they put some serious effort into Djinn tribal.
Yeah, I’ve got a habit of that with the last few sets released into the Standard habitat. There’s a lot of simplified designs that strike a chord and keep Standard a relatively balanced format. But that’s the issue isn’t it? If Standard was a more diverse ecosystem with more unique strategies, we wouldn’t be in a world where any card with a powerful design automatically floats to the top. See: Den Protector + Deathmist Raptor in Standard right now for examples of cards being significantly above the power curve.
So what are the standout cards that will rise above the rest? Which cards will make their mark on Standard and possibly go deep into Modern?
Evolutionary Leap is preselling for a whopping $7, which may or may not be a reasonable price. Would I buy in? I just did. This is a card that you’re going to want to catch onto before it takes off. Cards like Evolutionary Leap just needs a talented deckbuilder and a few events to hone a rough idea into a working archetype. This card doesn’t slot into any obvious places, thought I expect it’s only a matter of time before this card shows up in a big way in Modern. Strangleroot Geist and Kitchen Finks are obvious places to start, but there’s probably even a world where this card shows up purely as a defensive spell to negate your opponent’s creature removal.
Picture this card in Modern Elves. The ability to sacrifice your elves in response to removal or simply to move up the food chain is going to be extremely powerful.
This doesn’t even take into account decks built around sacrificing tokens to quickly assemble a combo or search out a single copies of creatures. Hell, I’ve got no problem throwing this into a Naya Token strategy alongside Goblin Rabblemaster or Monastery Mentor.
Evolutionary Leap is the exact kind of card I look for when I’m picking out cards to speculate on.
Sword of Animist is a card that’s gotten a lot of hype, but you also have to consider the source. Sold out at the $5.99 preorder price with the added footnote of being a card that Ben Bleiweiss predicts “could be a chase rare.” I’m always skeptical of the salesman that tells me their product is a good investment, but in this case it might be. We’re almost a lock for Landfall to return as a mechanic in Battle for Zendikar as I’m sure the plane is still a home to “powerful manas” and all that nonsense, but will it return as something more than overpriced creatures getting +2/+2? That’s hard to say.
Sword of the Animist is not going to push out cards like Umezawa’s Jitte or Sword of Fire and Ice in Legacy and is likely to be a third or fourth choice at best in most Commander decks that utilize equipment shenanigans. BUT…it does provide continuous ramp which could be a real powerful effect going forward as Wizards has telegraphed that they want to slow things down a bit by bringing in Leaf Gilder over an Elvish Mystic reprint.
Sword of the Animist is a card that I’m going to watch closely going forward; I don’t think it can really be worth much more than the current price of $5.99 over the next few months, but if prices slip into the $3-4 range, you can bet I’ll be picking up a few.
Hey Abbot!!! Abbot of Keral Keep might be one of the most underrated cards in the set at $2.99. This is an Elvish Visionary for red aggro decks, except it has two power and Prowess. Even in a cruel world where you hit a land with this card, you’re still not going to feel too bad about as a 2/1 Prowess creature for two mana is not a bad rate at all.
This card is clearly not the red Snapcaster Mage that we’ve all been waiting for, but it fits into a variety of archetypes ranging from the Sligh decks to the red/green big mana decks. I know I can’t wait to sleeve this card up in Modern Zoo.
Erebos’s Titan is an interesting case. The obvious place to go following this guy is the Gray Merchant of Asphodel, but a mono colored deck has to be extremely powerful in a world full of readily available dual lands and I just don’t know if Mono-black has that kind of arsenal right now.
So that leaves us with a semi-difficult to cast 5/5 for four mana that features some awkwardly powerful abilities. The conditional indestructible clause seems like a pure “win more” scenario, but it makes your opponent unable to top deck removal in those instances where you are slogging in the last bits of damage. The return clause seems pretty easy to trigger in a world where people completely ignore the text boxes of things in opposing graveyards, Deathmist Raptors, and delve.
But the real question we have with ET is whether or not the card is just another evolution of the unplayed four mana 5/5 creature that black has become so accustomed to seeing. At the $12.49 preorder price that SCG is offering, I am not a buyer. Erebos’s Titan is a card that greatly benefits from a few of the peripherals, as those Devotion cards and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth rotate out that casting cost becomes a major liability and this card begins to look a lot more like a mythic Vengeful Pharaoh. I expect this card to spend most of it’s Standard life in the $4-6 range rather the $10+ we see right now.
If we somehow get filter land reprints in Battle for Zendikar, then anything becomes possible.
Woodland Bellower is at risk of succumbing to an illness that I’ve long called “Ranger of Eos Disorder”. Ranger of Eos was not an exciting card for a very long time, and then they printed Goblin Bushwhacker, Steppe Lynx, and Goblin Guide and we all of the sudden had a deck.
There’s another card that suffered from Ranger of Eos Disorder: Stoneforge Mystic. This card dipped all the way down to just above bulk status before Scars of Mirrodin was printed, but all it took was one or two good search targets to put it on the radar, and at the moment Batterskull was spoiled, the writing was on the wall.
Woodland Bellower is priced like a Titan but comes with none of the bells and whistles we’ve become accustomed to beyond being a largish creature that gets to bring a friend, so he needs a good friend to be of any real value. Who are currently the best friends this Bear/Deer (Beer?) can bring to the battlefield?
As you can see, there are PLENTY of very powerful targets for our Woodland friend to befriend. This doesn’t even take into account Commander decks looking for another tutor to help assemble a convoluted creature-based combo. I’m just sad that I’ll never get to run this guy in a Modern Birthing Pod deck.
I don’t see many universes where the Beer doesn’t see constructed play. At $5.99 for this Mythic beast, there’s plenty of room to grow as soon as it makes a strong debut, we also have two full blocks worth of new creatures to give this card the boost it needs for a big payoff.
“It doesn’t die to Languish” is one way to describe this card. Another card that might be too mana intensive for it’s own good, Archangel of Tithes provides you with a whole lot of text-box for a low low price of just four mana.
At $20 I’m required to do the usual song and dance about this being a Mythic Angel and explain that “casuals” love angels and that there’s a ton of players that just collect angels and angel angel angel.
That said, is this the usual preorder exploitation of our wing-fetished friends or is this actually a good card? While putting the thumbscrews to your opponent by taxing their every maneuver is powerful, it’s much more powerful when you’re casting creatures that are mana efficient and aggressive… something that doesn’t really include four mana creatures with three power.
Archangel of Tithes is a creature that could excel in a world where white-weenie strategies were genuinely viable and that has not been the case for a very long time, no matter what Craig Wescoe tells you. The casting cost is going to be incredibly burdensome and this card gets better only as you overcommit to the board… but it survives Languish! This card, like most angels, has a tax placed on its preorder price, I’d advise against paying it.
A lot of this set is just going to be pure bulk; cards like Dark Petition look shiny and new, but then you realize there’s nothing you want to cast for three mana that you’d pay five mana to search up. There’s the “premium” bulk like Exquisite Firecraft that are preselling for $4, but ultimately follow the path of Crater’s Claws right into the gutter.
Many of the mythics have great casual appeal, so ship them on day one or at the prerelease to the players that are salivating for them. Long term, if you want to pick up the Alhammarat’s Archives of the world, wait until they take their hit. Casual cards usually have the advantage of being popular BEFORE their prices goes up, because the players are more… err, casual about picking them up.
If there’s any other cards you’re interested in my thoughts on from this set, feel free to ask in the comments section below.
I’m writing this introduction well in advance to discuss the preconceptions about what to expect when reviewing a new set. At the time of this writing, I haven’t yet looked at the full spoiler, and I have completely ignored preorder prices the last couple weeks, so of the cards I do know about, I have no idea where they’re priced. Once I get to the card-by-card breakdown, I’ll have had several days to review the set, the preorder pricing, pro commentary, and all kinds of other factors that go into a financial review of new cards.
But first, I want to mention what I expect to see in this (and every) new set:
By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)
5 Winners of the Week
As a true Timmy to the core, I am always excited to see another random bulk card hit the big time when someone uncovers a previously unnoticed set of interactions. Even better is when the deck in question represents an entirely new archetype, as was the case with the Lantern of Insight/Ensnaring Bridge deck that caught our attention at recent Modern tournaments of note. Though the deck isn’t quite established as a Tier 1 option, it has proven to be more resilient to disruption than previously thought, and a combination of speculative activity and players legitimately trying out the deck has resulted in our largest spike of the week. As Lantern is highly unlikely to be reprinted anytime soon, I think you can feel fine with unloading any copies you had lying around, while holding back a few for possible increases to hedge your bets.
Verdict: Sell/Trade
Format(s): Modern
2. Arcbound Ravager (Modern Masters, Rare): $18.00 to $39.99 (+122%)
Ravager is jumping as part of widespread increase in Modern staples that were not reprinted in Modern Masters 2015. Affinity continues to be a consistently competitive deck in the format, and it was also one of the more affordable decks, all of which set this card up for a spike. I’m in no rush to unload my copies as any future bannings are more likely to benefit Affinity than hurt it as an archetype, and it’s always a core 4-of in the deck.
Verdict: Hold
Format(s): Modern/Casual
3. Nettle Sentinel (M14/Eventide, Rare): $1.54 to $3.18 (+94%)
Driven by the power of Collected Company and Chord of Calling in Modern Elves, several key components are now on the rise, including this previously innocuous one-drop. Being called out as a spike target by members of our team didn’t hurt its’ prospects, but I’d think that the top line here is about $5. Feel free to bail out if you’re holding a bunch.
Format(s): Modern/Legacy
Verdict: Hold
4. Ancient Stirrings (ROE, Common): $1.49 to $3.49 (+75%)
Like Affinity, Tron has been a consistent top table contender in Modern for longer than most people have been playing the format. Also like Tron, any core components not recently reprinted are fair game for price increases. It’s just the latest in a long line of commons to start life below $1 and reward those of us that are hoarding them, but there is some slight risk of a reprint in Battle for Zendikar this fall so I’m fine bulking these out.
Format(s): Modern
Verdict: Sell/Trade
5. Horizon Canopy (Future Sight, Rare): $45.00 to $70.00 (+56%)
Future Sight continues on towards its manifest destiny of one of the greatest MTG Finance sets of all time. Here we have a decade old rare land that’s usually played as a 1 or 2-of, though in multiple decks. The ability to cash in an unneeded land for an extra draw phase provides enough utility to provide a price foundation, but it’s the age of the home set and the lack of a reprint that is floating this price. If you got in under $30 there is no good reason to hold out for more as $60-70 is already quite high for a card of this type and play usage.
Format(s): Modern
Verdict: Sell
3 Top Losers of the Week
1. Congregation at Dawn (Ravnica, Uncommon): $3.41 to $2.00 (-41%)
Congregation spiked as a potential Modern component alongside Collected Company, but as that card has found new friends, this uncommon has fallen back to a lower price. Hopefully you got out during the spike earlier this spring so that you don’t have to fret now about what to do with your extra copies now that you’re facing lower demand.
Verdict: Hold/Sell
2. Icefall Regent (Dragons of Tarkir, Rare): $2.26 to 1.89 (-16%)
This is a mild and natural drop on a card that hasn’t found a sweet spot in the Standard metagame but could end up seeing more play in either a rejuvenated blue devotion strategy or some other tempo/control style build in the next few months. Either way, feel free to trade these out at your leisure, as they are highly unlikely to spike in the face of so many freshly interesting Origins cards.
Format(s): Standard
Verdict: Buy below $4
3. Shorecrasher Elemental: $2.82 to $2.38 (-16%)
Unlike the frosty dragon above, I actually think it’s reasonable to acquire a few sets of Shorecrasher Elemental at this price. Maybe Harbinger of Tides sets off one last hurrah for blue devotion, or maybe that deck is retrofitted for Modern success, but either way, casuals could easily make this a $5 card a year or two down the road if the other options don’t pan out. It’s not an important spec, but I’ve got 20 copies or so lying around.
Verdict: Buy/Hold
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
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