Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Baldur’s Gate Specs

Readers!

I seriously stared at the title line for 10 minutes and drew a complete blank. I can cut my losses and submit a terrible, generic title or I can stare at it for another half hour and run the risk of still having a terrible, generic title.

“Wait” I can pretend to hear you asking “do you mean to tell me coming up with an article full of future potential specs backed by inclusion data and a decade of M:tG finance experience is easier than making a pun title?” which sounds like a dunk because it absolutely is easier in this instance, and how good EDHREC has been at identifying potential specs before anyone else is a big part of it. I have no one’s help for writing a pun title, especially one I haven’t used in the last 3 months to do any of those set review articles. I have lots of help when I write these articles, and EDHREC is almost all of it. Let’s see how the set looks, shall we?

Wait, this can’t possibly be right, can it?

Awesome.

We won’t go through all 62, but we won’t need to because the top ones need attention first. Let’s get into it!

Tokens goodstuff is pretty boring but I guess they can’t keep churning out interesting commanders 62 at a time. This is popular but nothing in it is super new, which is a drag.

At this point, there is probably a case to be made for any card from Shadowmoor block that can untap by adding a -1/-1 counter. It’s not just Devoted Druid, though that is the obvious one. Druid and Vizier of Remedies. The foil on this is trending up regardless and maybe you pick the regular ones out of bulk, too.

For reference, Grim Guardian, another card in the deck, is a $4 foil due in part to how popular it has been in EDH in the last year and how few foils of trash commons there are online. I don’t think medic hits $4 but it might not not.

Medic has some catching up to do first, obviously, but if this is a combo piece, Medic does something a lot more repeatable. Ultimately, I guess keep an eye on EDH foils, even fringe ones. I mean foils, no Pringles -5 years old and older is preferred.

None of this is really new, either, except the cards that are themselves new. New commanders come out so fast that the 70% of a Xanathar deck I have built probably becomes Tasha, or a commander from the next set if I miss the 2 week window to build Baldur’s Gate.

Sire is having a bit of a mini down-tick which seems fine. This is already flirting with $9 on CK, I think you can see your way clear to paying half of that on TCG Player right now and toppling the domino.

I want to live in a world where Tinder Wall is worth something.

Sure glad I didn’t pay $30 for these. They’re up a bit which means they’re likely done dropping which means these are pretty attractive around $10. It’s not just this deck that wants these but this deck wants them a lot.

Maybe this is an illustration of how trash modern foils are, but Grumgully just seems like it should be worth more. It’s not a great commander, but it can be a lot of fun in the right deck.

It isn’t not played.

I think this is a card I’ll wonder how it’s so inexpensive, forget about it for 3 years then wonder why it’s so expensive.

Weird pile.

Why isn’t this card worth more money while we’re at it? It makes no sense.

Not sure which Kermit to listen to here but I don’t like how this price is so sticky.

We talked about RaggidyDraggidy a bit last week but it made the most obvious specs go off. Is there anything else this card can do?

This should cost more money. I know I’m a broken record, but sheesh.

This seems to be trending upward enough that I think it’s a decent buy at its current price. There was never a great time to buy it since it debuted on CK at more than it goes for on TCG Player now. The truth is this price hasn’t moved much and any hint of upward movement is enough for me.

Next week we can dive into some lesser-played commanders in part 2. Until next time!

Watchtower

Not-So-New Capenna

The way that EDHREC sorts cards can be a little misleading sometimes, because it pushes multicoloured cards, that aren’t necessarily the most popular in terms of raw numbers, to the top of the standings due to their percentage inclusion in decks. This can be useful depending on what you’re looking for, but it does mean that some of the more popular cards that go into a lot of different decks get listed further down – so we have to use our brains a little more.

No matter, that’s what I’m here for – to help you decipher which cards you should really be looking to put money into and which might be red herrings.

I’m writing this article specifically about Streets of New Capenna, because this set is a prime example of having a huge number of multicoloured cards topping the EDHREC standings for percentage inclusion. There’s no doubt that cards like Void Rend and Riveteers Ascendancy are great, but they can draw our attention away from cards like Professional Face-Breaker that are going into more decks than both of those combined.

Halo Fountain

Price today: $4
Possible price: $15

I quite like picking up regular versions of Halo Fountain right now (not to be confused with Hallowed Fountain) – it’s one of the most popular Mythics from the set, and yet doesn’t have a price tag to match. Bootleggers’ Stash is in a little over a thousand decks more (5.3k vs 4k) listed on EDHREC, but is running up at $18 compared to the $4 we’re seeing for Halo Fountain. Yes, it’s a card that goes in a wider variety of decks, and yes green > white, but the numbers on Fountain are still pretty strong here and I wouldn’t discount it at all.

It’s going to be an incredibly popular casual card just because of the “win the game” clause on it, but even aside from that it’s just quite a good card in token/go-wide decks. Make creatures, draw cards, maybe win the game (especially if you’re playing some decent Convoke cards), and I think we’re onto a winner.

$4 for a popular mythic feels like a good buy here, and I wouldn’t sniff at the Borderless foils for $12 either – they could easily see a double up or more given enough time.

Rabble Rousing (FEA)

Price today: $3
Possible price: $10

Another white token-based card? Sure, why not. In the right kind of deck (and why would you be playing this in the wrong kind of deck?) I think that you could realistically be pulling out the card you hid away on the turn you drop this, or at the very least the turn after, and even once you’ve done that you’re still getting value from the enchantment afterwards.

Hiding away some big convoke spell or a Craterhoof Behemoth in your tokens decks seems pretty good, and although five mana is a reasonable investment for this card, you are getting immediate value from it and it’s probably not scary enough to meet an immediate removal spell, so you’re going to keep getting incremental gains from it as well.

Nearly 3500 decks recorded playing this on EDHREC makes me think that $3 FEAs are a good deal right now, especially considering the fact that regular non-foils are around $1. These could easily buylist for $7-8 down the road, and probably retail a good deal higher than that if you’re patient.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern and EDH. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Casual Fridays

Early Picking and Planning for Baldur’s Gate

We’ve got the full list of Commander Legends: Battle of Baldur’s Gate, and there’s a lot of amazing cards in here. 

Not a lot of heavy reprints (yet, we’ve still got the precons coming) but there’s a whole lot of really sweet cards out there. This set is more expensive than previous sets, and that’s surprising to see without some kind of headliner, like a Jeweled Lotus or a Dockside Extortionist to anchor the value.

Granted, we’ve got Double Masters 2 on the horizon and that should be *stuffed* with value.

However, for right now, we’ve got some amazing things to deal with and I want to plan out what to buy and when, so come along!

The Ancient Dragons – The main thing I’m looking at here is the casting cost. These are all very good cards, and while some are clearly more powerful than others, All of them should see their share of Commander play. The Bronze one (the green one) is clearly the weakest, adding counters when you’re already getting damage through is good, and maximizing a roll requires something else to put counters on.

We’ve got a recent example of a cycle of Dragons: The Dragon Spirits from Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty. Those five tell a story, financially speaking:

So Junji is among the most popular, and Ao is the least so. We’re looking at $30ish for Junji in borderless foil, and $12 for Ao the same way. The NEO cycle is less powerful, but lower on mana costs. I’m expecting to see these Ancient dragons do something similar, in terms of opening up very expensive and dropping pretty fast. Not as many people will want these cards, just from the mana cost.

I’ll be very tempted to buy all of these Dragons right away, but more likely is that I’m going to wait a few weeks for things to calm down, and then I can get what I want for a more decent price.

Bramble Sovereign (currently $15 nonfoil) – This isn’t a very common card on EDHREC, where people choose to upload their decks, but it was only available as a mythic in Battlebond four years ago. Just under 6,000 people have listed this as a card, though there’s likely a lot of decks out there that have this card. Remember that you can give someone a token copy if you want to, making this more political than it might first appear.

The trick with reprints of expensive or semi-expensive cards is to let it get cheap and then buy a lot. I’m expecting this to travel down into the $7 range. 

Karlach, Fury of Avernus – Note that the attack trigger doesn’t require Karlach to attack, so you can just sit him back and let other creatures do the work of getting in there twice. There’s a few creatures that can trigger more attack steps, but this one can’t combo off with Delima, Wild Mage or other such things because you only get an untap if it’s the first attack. I want this to get cheap, like under $5, because while this is good it lacks synergies with most things but it does have a Background.

Legion Loyalty – Eight mana! Sure, it’s capable of doing great things, especially with something Sundial of the Infinite, but barring effects that cheat the enchantment out, I don’t think this is very good. Myriad is broken when there’s still four people in the pod, but when you’ve eliminated two other players, myriad does stone nothing. I’m looking forward to buying this as a cheap brick, hopefully around $2-$3, hoping for something to come along to make it jump back up.

Altar of Bhaal – Recurring Nightmare is banned in Commander, and this is the fixed version. Exiling means you can’t recur the same creature back and forth, and now only once per turn. This is capable of doing some very disgusting things, especially with a fun little adventure built in. I’m anticipating being able to get a lot of these near $2, hopefully $1 just for the future buylist out.

Ascend from Avernus – If you like Agadeem’s Awakening, you’ll like this more. It’s not a land, and yes, that is a drawback, but the thing is, that’s just how good a MDFC is. AfA is a mere rare, and can do a great job as a mass reanimation spell. Being able to bring back planeswalkers is a huge bonus, one that only Eerie Ultimatum can compete with. Eerie is better, but it’s also three awkward colors. The cheapest version of Eerie has come down to just about $2, so we’re unlikely to see Ascend from Avernus go much under $3-$5.

The Allied Battlebond Lands – These never really had a chance to get cheap. Instead, they started cheap, and then started climbing upwards. 

Now we’re going to get FEA versions to compete with the Expedition versions, but again, I’m more likely to focus on waiting until these are at peak supply and then buying them up. Getting your good lands cheap is sound advice for Commander in general, but the inevitable rise of these lands will give wonderful returns. I’m more likely to be patient on the regular versions and then go deep on those, hoping to buy around $5 and buylist for $10+. FEA versions are probably going to be expensive for a while as people upgrade from Battlebond foils.

Gale’s Redirection – I love this card. I dig Spelljack, Desertion type effects, where not only do you not get your card, now I get it. Note that this gets around ‘cannot be countered’ effects, and if you exiled something big and huge and can’t be countered, then it’s that much more likely you’ll end up playing this for free! It’s also a way to just keep something exiled forever. I suspect regular and FEA versions of this will be delightfully inexpensive.

Kindred Discovery – (currently $19 in nonfoil only) – This was only printed in Commander 2017 and a few iterations of The List. As a result, it’s only in 17k decks online, because people who bought the deck had a tribal deck that wanted the card. (It’s as good as advertised, btw.)

The price on this is mostly due to the low supply, and we’ll see how many people add it this time around. We’re getting a FEA version, and that’s probably where I want to be, especially if it gets under $10.

Reflecting Pool – (currently about $21 for the cheapest version) – It’s been reprinted a few times, and has been listed in 50k decks online. We can check the graph, and yep, we’re due for a reprint:

Again, this isn’t complicated. Buy at the low, probably around $7, and then be patient. Reflecting Pool will recover, it’s too handy not to. We’ve got ample evidence that every printing hasn’t affected the price too much in the long term.

Vexing Puzzlebox – I love this card for taking something that we’re doing and adding a strong bonus. This is a broken card, letting you tap it and go get any artifact and put it into play. Every dice-rolling card wants to have the Puzzlebox in play, and there are a LOT of cards that can add up the charge counters. Delina, Wild Mage is one example, but everything with a d20 is fair game. Plus, at some point in the future, we’re going to get a multicolor commander whose focus is rolling dice, and that’s when I’ll want to have FEA versions in stock. Vexing Puzzlebox is a mythic, as an such I doubt it would ever hit bulk pricing. Instead, I’m going to focus on FEA versions that will push as low as $5, and simply wait.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Data Will Be Lata

Readers!

We are currently in the very awkward period of time between the first few Baldur’s Gate cards being spoiled and having enough deck data to start to connect some dots, so I thought I’d share some of my thoughts about how these decks might likely be built in order to see if there is anything we can identify early. That’s not my favorite way to spec but we sometimes have a one week break between a set being released and the next set being spoiled and it’s fun to take advantage of that brief window in between releases so I don’t have time to focus on how the relentless pace of set releases coupled with my employing myself by making content about those releases on four different platforms is beginning to feel like a prison.

The good news, though, is that I am getting pretty decent at this. The bad news is that other people are, too, and anything that’s obvious is going to pop before I have a chance to tell you about it. It’s way too late to make money on these cards now, but if you had bought them years ago when I said to, you’d have them to sell to people paying outrageous prices for them, so I don’t feel that bad. There is plenty of money left to be made, but let’s examine the money we can’t make anymore unless we find a mispriced copy somewhere.

Raggadragga is an obvious pairing for a bunch of mana dorks, but people figured out right away that granting creatures a mana ability is a very easy way to upgrade them with Raggitydraggity and they responded by way overpaying for Citanul Hierophants, a card I have never stopped telling people they should play but no one listens to me because I said it in an article and not a YouTube video.

Rite wasn’t exactly cheap last week and this latest push is going to do quite a bit of damage to its price. If you’re holding when this peaks, I might shift out because a reprint could come any day now with 75 new EDH decks coming every 9 months.

The rest of the Raggadragga deck should be pretty easy to figure out.

People seem to be sleeping on Ashaya even though it does the same thing as Cryptolith Rite. It’s newer but the price has been pretty steady for a while, supply is what it is at this point and it’s a very good card in the deck. I think these under $10 are a slam dunk, but, again, there is nothing to indicate Raggadragga will be popular enough for anyone to make money on cards that aren’t so obvious that twitter figured it out in 5 minutes. I like Ashaya long-term but I recognize everything has never been easier to reprint.

To figure out what I think will be good with this card, I first searched Scryfall for Myriad to see how many creatures had it innately to see if it was worth picking any of them up.

Not seeing anything worthwhile, I went to EDHREC to see which cards paired with Blade of Selves.

The only things of interest to me here are Adeline, a card I said to buy last week and Delina, a near anagram of Adeline. This is what happens when you make 300 new Legendary creatures a year, their names become impossible to differentiate.

I like this card’s chances of hitting $5 given how much it has going for it. I think the closer to $1 you buy in, the better, obviously, but this card has already demonstrated a willingness and ability to hit $3 in recent memory and another push won’t be a bad thing.

This got cheap from Jumpstart, hasn’t gone up or down since and is pretty tempting to me right now. I like this as a pickup right now. I wish it had gotten cheaper, but Jumpstart got hit with some global supply chain issues and its weird, continuous release played havoc on prices. As soon as a Jumpstart pack yielded a copy, it was sucked up into the insatiable maw of the EDH community and no real impact was made. I think this is a card we need to pay more than $5 for and I also think it’s worth it, even with a reprint likely.

We do have some ‘REC data for this one.

This is basically exactly the same stuff spiked by Anhelo, but if you read that article and bought Worst Fears like I said, you’re feeling good about how they’re $6 a copy and climbing, I bet.

We seem to be in the beginning stages of the Thousand-Year Elixir Boom//Bust cycle, which is nice.

This probably doesn’t hit $30 again, but it’s very good and very cheap and you should consider buying these since they just tanked.

I think that when we get data, we’re bound to see some surprises but for me, the biggest surprise is that with the exception of myriad tribal and dragon tribal, these commanders don’t do anything particularly special and remind me of New Capenna and Strixhaven commanders. If you read me Anhelo and Zevlor’s text boxes in 2 months I bet I couldn’t tell you which one came from which set. That’s a problem, but we won’t solve it by grousing. So, go. Engage in some retail therapy. Buy some specs and cheer when they hit because EDH isn’t going anywhere for at least 6-12 more months. Thanks for reading – until next time!

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