Casual Fridays

The Fate of Dragons

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By: Cliff Daigle

Spoiler season! It’s the best. In fact, the full spoiler may be released by the time you’re reading this. (Wizards did that to me with Khans of Tarkir!)

EDITORS NOTE: Umm, sorry Cliff… (MTGPrice.com will have prices as soon as it’s officially up on Gatherer)

We have two full cycles of Legendary creatures in this set, both at rare and not mythic. They are aligned with two- or three- color combinations, and for casual play, there are notable implications. Let’s start with the best of all: Dragons! 

There are five two-color legendary Dragons in this set, and they all grant a bonus to attacking Dragons. Naturally, this means we want a Dragon-themed deck! I would imagine that most people reading this would have built a Dragon deck at some point, either a casual 60-card one or an EDH deck or something. I know I had a stack of Revised Shivan Dragons!

Fate Reforged has common Dragons, and a significant number of uncommon one. We get only our third mono-green Dragon too! The next set is named Dragons of Tarkir, indicating that we’ll get a few big flyers there as well.

What does this mean? We’re looking for cards that play well with Dragons. We’re looking for cards that enable casual Dragon strategies, or that synthesize well with the tribe.

Our first contestant is Dragonspeaker Shaman. I will be surprised if this card isn’t reprinted sometime this block. It’s already had three printings and it is at $5, but its only foil is at $8. I really like picking up the old-border foils right now, because if there’s a new version that comes out, the older, different foil will be a bit more sought after.

It’s interesting that despite being in two supplementary products, this price is still so high for non-foils. It’s barely second place behind Knight of the Reliquary in the Duel Deck! I’d expect the price of nonfoils to fall if it is added to Standard, though.

Dragon Roost, as a source of Dragon tokens that doesn’t die to creature removal, could be a fun target. Even foils are under $5, but it’s got two versions to choose from.

Utvara Hellkite is creeping upward. It’s a mythic in a very popular set, but it’s ridiculously good in multiples and if there’s one thing casual players like, it’s winning with more and more Dragon tokens.

Another card I’m intrigued by is Crucible of Fire. It’s a super-cheap pickup right now, and please don’t overlook how many people build 60-card casual decks. Commander is not the only casual format, and Crucible is outstanding in multiples. I would be content to get a stack of Crucible for under fifty cents, and just wait.

Dragonstorm is also appealingly cheap right now. It’s got multiple foil versions to choose from, and the new rare Dragons really like dumping a lot of Dragons into play. I wouldn’t mind having a few more of these, even if they cost nine to cast!

The cards I’m most excited about, though, are a set of Mirage legends that are now on the Reserved List: Hivis of the Scale, Rashida Scalebane, and Zirilan of the Claw. The first two are under fifty cents, and Zirilan is up to nearly $2 because he’s amazing in a Commander deck. These are not going to get reprinted, and they interact amazingly well when casual games have lots of Dragons. One is a Soldier that kills Dragons, one steals others’ Dragons, and the other grabs Dragon after Dragon out of your deck and fills your graveyard.

As cards that Wizards won’t reprint and rares from a set released nearly eighteen years ago, these are excellent candidates for a spike.

I don’t like moving in on Kargan Dragonlord or Dragonmaster Outcast right now. The price is already high and a reprint of either mythic would be disastrous for their prices. They are fun cards, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t condone picking them up, even if a reprint of a Level Up creature is unlikely right now.

Something else I’m not high on is the pair of Dragon legends, Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund and Scion of the Ur-Dragon. I am aware that these are not the only choices for a Commander, but they are possibly the best. Karrthus is in the main Dragon colors and gives theft and haste, while Scion is the only five-color choice…for now. Scion being a $50 foil reflects the popularity of having the five-color deck. I don’t see a lot of growth for the foil, but if you wanted to pick up nonfoil Scion at around $2, that’s pretty safe and might be a fun thing to trade to someone about to build their first Dragon-themed deck.

It bears repeating that Commander and R & D are closely linked. Members of the Commander Rules Committee work at Wizards. The things that players want to have, Wizards wants to give. I would call it unlikely that we’ll get a set called Dragons of Tarkir without getting a new five-color Legend, but I’ve been wrong before.

 

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Legacy Hero #8

Welcome back everyone. I wasn’t planning on being gone this long but a great opportunity came up for me to get out of town and I couldn’t pass it up. I’m a sucker for value.

When we left off in the last article, I said I was going to talk about buy listing in the next article. Before we get to that though, I want to go over the last two trades I made in greater detail. I want you to see that there is a method to my madness.

I’ve already talked about the first trade. I traded some shock lands and a couple of cheap staples for a bigger stack of cheap staples, but for a few different archetypes. Most of you agreed with my end of the trade.

For reference here are the cards I traded for.

side A

I’ve been reading a lot about how discard isn’t as good in Legacy as it was pre Treasure Cruise, but I think that Hymn to Tourach is still worth having in my trade stock. I use cards like Hymn to Tourach, Phyrexian Revoker, and Crop Rotation as throw-ins to balance out a trade. You never know when you might need a Revoker…

The Reanimator deck has been picking up some steam recently in the bigger events. A couple of my local guys have asked me about the deck and if I had any of the cheaper cards for it. Reanimate and Exhume are cheap and easy to trade away to people testing the waters of the format. Trading out $20-$30 of cards to pick up a small stack of cards for an eternal deck you might make is easy to do without regrets if you don’t end up building the deck.

Overall, this trade helped me diversify my trade binder. Having these cheap staples in my trade inventory should help me with my secondary goal of building my local legacy community while helping me with my primary goal of building the deck. A lesson I’m reminded of constantly is that my local trade partners don’t often get the cards I need for the Stoneblade deck. They tend to trade for the cards that they’re going to use in their deck project and not really worry about what they have in the trade binder.

I had a foil Lorwyn Ponder rotting in my binder. I couldn’t give it away. I had put it in my buy list pile. (I’m terrible at buy listing by the way, but I will talk about that more later.) I was checking out what was posted in a couple Facebook buy/sell/trade groups when I came across someone looking for a foil Lorwyn Ponder. He valued it at $50 in trade. That’s pretty good considering I had decided that I was going to buy list it to Channel Fireball for $30 ($39 in store credit) a little while ago. We talked back and forth and he offered a pair of Flooded Strands and a Batterskull for the foil Ponder. That seemed like a perfect trade for me. I get to trade a semi-expensive (it’s a common foil) card that is EXTREMELY hard to move into format staples that I could trade out the same day. After he doubled checked his cards, he let me know that he only had one Flooded Strand. He was using tcgplayer mid price for trade values. At the time (before Christmas) that left me with roughly $17 to snag out of his binder.

I want to take a minute here and say that Dave Meetze is the perfect example of someone you want to trade with. He sent me pictures of his trade binder, the whole binder, to go through to find the difference. He is one of the most professional people I have ever dealt with. He went above and beyond the entire time AND he sent first. Great guy.

Back to the trade though. He had a ton of stuff that I wanted to put into my trade binder but I needed to be efficient here. I had a great opportunity to add cards to my deck and my binder. I didn’t want to be greedy and loose all the value to the deck. I threw in the Sword of Light and Shadow from Modern Masters (I opened in a draft) with the foil Ponder for these beauties.

trade 2 pic 1

So let’s breakdown the numbers here.

  • Supreme Verdict x3 $2.50
  • Baneslayer Angel $12.00
  • Council’s Judgement $8.50
  • Stifle $6.00
  • Thalia, Guardian of Thraben $4.00
  • Flooded Strand $17.00
  • Batterskull $17.00
  • Gaddock Teeg $8.00

Total: $80 (rounding to the nearest $.50)

For my

  • Foil Ponder Lorwyn $50
  • Sword of Light and Shadow $28

Total: $78

Face value it looks like I made $2.00. But if we look at the tcgplayer mid prices today (1-5-15) you will see that I picked up another $10. So I’m up a little over $12 in this trade. The mid price on the Ponder went down $6 and some of the other cards went up a little bit. This is not an example of my awesome trading skills. This is an example of plain old luck by the way, not an example of my awesome trading skills( for the most part at least).

Out of the cards I got in the trade I will be putting a fair amount of them in the deck. Council’s Judgement, Batterskull, and the Flooded Strand. Looking at the other cards, Supreme Verdict, Thalia, Stifle and Gaddock Teeg are all cards I expect to increase in price over the long term. Supreme Verdict and Thalia are under priced in my opinion. Thalia sees a ton of legacy play and I expect to see it in modern eventually. Supreme Verdict is one of the best wrath effects out there. I know Supreme Verdict has been on everyone’s radar as a solid speculation target. Speculation isn’t exactly where I want to be right now. I need to maximize my trade binder’s resources. I can’t afford to sit on specs long term. That being said, I get asked about Supreme Verdict enough that I like having a couple in my binder even if they don’t see a huge price jump. That leaves Batterskull and Baneslayer Angel. I fully expect Batterskull to be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baneslayer Angel in there as well. The risk of the reprints is something to think about but not something that would prevent me from picking them up. Batterskull has the grand prix promo and it is still $17. Baneslayer has two core set prints and it is $12. There is some risk but since I plan on using both cards in the deck I’m not really worried about the card loosing value with a reprint. Sure, I could wait and see, then pick one up, but without anything being confirmed I would rather have the cards in hand. Not to mention I prefer the first printings of a card I’m using in a deck. Let me know your thoughts on the trade in the comments. I would love to see what you have to say.

Now we get to talk about buy listing. Couple of quick tips to remember when you’re buy listing. First, always double check how many the store is buying. I’ve made a few mistakes when I first started buy listing. I’ve learned that lesson the hard way. Next is always make sure to squeeze all you can with the cash you’re spending to ship. Sometimes it makes sense to take a little less from a store if you already have a stack of stuff that you’re sending. I can fit a lot of cards in one of the $5.95 priority mail boxes.

Last article I talked about the Titania, Protector of Argoth for $2.99 with free shipping. My budget was able afford 10 copies. I made sure to look at the buy list prices before I pulled the trigger. Channel Fireball was paying $5 and would take over 150 copies. I looked through my stack of cards to see what else I had to ship them.

I came up with this list

  • Champion Lancer $2.50 cash $3.25 credit
  • Blinkmoth Nexus $7.00/$9.10
  • Ichorid $8.00/$10.00
  • Necrotic Sliver $1.50/$1.95 (6 copies)
  • Aether Vial $15.00/$19.50
  • Elspeth, Sun’s Champion $12.00/$15.60
  • Mind Funeral $1.00/$1.30 (2 copies)
  • Chalice of the Void $10.00/$13.00 (4 copies)

Add in the 10 copies of Titania, Protector of Argoth for a total of $145 cash or $189.15 in store credit minus the $6 to ship it.

Let’s look at what I have in the cards to see the actual profit of this venture.

  • Champion Lancer .25
  • Necrotic Sliver x6  .25 each ($1.50)
  • Ichorid $5.00 cash
  • Chalice of the Void x4 $6.00 each ($24.00)
  • Titania, Protector of Argoth x10 $2.99 each ($29.90)
  • Elspeth, Sun’s Champion  Pulled out of a prize pack (3.99)
  • Blinkmoth Nexus, Aether Vial, Mind Funeral x2 were drafted by me ($30)

Total cost of about $95.

Cash profit of $44 after shipping.

Store Credit profit of $88 after shipping.

I love the idea of having $189.15 in store credit just for shipping in 26 cards. Average of $7.27 a card makes me pretty happy. I thought I would’ve moved the Chalice of the Voids by now but I haven’t had any luck. Taking $13 in store credit is close enough to what I would end up with after fees anyway. Stumbling across the Necrotic Sliver and Lancer in a local store’s bulk box helps the total as well. One of my favorite thing to do when I visit a store for the first time is to find these kind of boxes and scour them for these kind of cards. I love value!

What do you think I should get with the store credit? The’re selling a heavy play Revised Tundra for $180 and near mint one for $220. Should I buy some under-priced Modern cards? Leave your suggestions in the comment section so we can go over it next week.

 

I have put the collection I have assembled for the project into mtgprice.com’s collection tracker and it really is great. Being able to glance at your collection and get a quick idea the activity is great. It comes in handy when I go to an event just to trade. I’m working on putting in into a spreadsheet in google docs so I can try and get some additional trades going.

Next week I will be going over the value I have in the deck so far, a few trades I have in the works, the fallout of the Legacy IQ I’m going to play in this weekend, and something else that I don’t want to spoil. Really looking forward to that.


As always, follow me on twitter @somethingsays  email me at mtglegacyhero at the gmail.

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Fate Reforged Mythic Review: Mastering the Elements

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By Guo Heng Chin

One of the perks of being a Magic player is getting multiple Christmases per year. Just as the official Muggle season of gifts came to an end, Magic players were spoiled with a slew of presents in the form of highly anticipated Fate Reforged spoilers.  As of writing, 86 out of the 185 new cards we would be getting in Fate Reforged have been unveiled. But of course, the ones most financially relevant would be the subset of ten mythic rares and a small portion of the thirty five rares. Today I will put the white and blue mythics under my financial microscope to evaluate their financial potential and whether you should pick them up now or stay far far away.

Let’s start with the soon-to-be master of your wallet, master of potentially Standard and maybe even Modern (a big maybe, as I will explain in a bit):

Seeker of the Way finally found it and thus became a master.
Seeker of the Way finally found The Way and thus became a mentor to other seekers.

Young Pyromancer got a big upgrade and discarded his impulsive red alignment. Monastery Mentor is the real deal and is highly likely to end up being one of the chase rares in Fate Reforged. As of writing, eBay completed listings have Monastery Mentor at $27 each and major stores like StarCityGames.com and ChannelFireball.com are preselling Monastery Mentor at $30.

It is pretty obvious that the Mentor is a solid card, but is the Mentor really worth that much? Is Monastery Mentor the next Voice of Resurgence, who broke $50 during the early stages of its existence? Like Voice of Resurgence, Monastery Mentor possesses a Modern-viable casting cost and is capable of generating insane card advantage. Heck, it even takes after Young Pyromancer, an already popular Modern mainstay.

My prediction is no. I do not think Monastery Mentor would become a Modern staple à la Voice of Resurgence and Young Pyromancer. And my arguments are as follows:

Monastery Mentor does not generate card advantage the turn you cast him unless you cast Monastery Mentor with open mana. That is a huge drawback in Modern for a card that costs three to play. Voice of Resurgence was scary because the plucky goat-like elemental assured you card advantage upon resolving and it costs one less. Baaaa.

Brimaz, King of Oreskos, an analog of Monastery Mentor requires two Lightning Bolts to take out (unlike their cat ancestors, leonin do not have nine lives), which is technically card advantage as he trades for two cards from your opponent. I would not consider getting my Brimaz or Voice of Resurgence Path to Exiled to be parity; Path propels your mana one turn ahead, a benefit for decks running Brimaz and Voice of Resurgence as you usually want to cast them on curve rather than hold out for open mana to be available like Monastery Mentor.

Nor does Monastery Mentor protect itself (I really can’t tell if Monastery Mentor is male or female from the low resolution card art, and the Vorthos in me demands that I get my card’s gender right. I am hedging by using it at the moment, at least until Wizards releases a Monastery Mentor wallpaper). I may not be an esteemed deck theorist or brewer, but I have the feeling that the current incarnations of Jeskai in Modern would prefer to run Geist of Saint Traft over Monastery Mentor.

In a format where Lighting Bolt is the most played card, being found in 49% of decks, I would be hard pressed to cast a three mana creature that is vulnerable to a single Lightning Bolt. It’s a huge tempo loss for me if my Monastery Mentor eats a Bolt without generating at least one token. The same applies to Young Pyromancer, but at two casting cost, Young Pyromancer is less of a tempo setback. I could cast Young Pyromancer on turn three with one mana open as opposed to casting Monastery Mentor on turn four. The difference of one mana is huge in a powerful format like Modern, and is amplified for tempo decks that do not run many lands; it is significantly easier to hit your third land drop than your fourth in these decks.

For all of Monastery Mentor’s drawbacks in Modern, Monastery Mentor is chock full of potential in Standard. I have been delving in Standard for the PPTQs and I am very excited to get my hands on my own playset of Mentors and witness new brews emerge from the existence of Monastery Mentor or current archetypes bolstered from some mentoring.

Fate Reforged may be a small set, but it will be drafted more than Dragon’s Maze. Fate Reforged seems choked full with powerful mythics to satiate Spikes and plenty of dragons (dragons at uncommon? It’s been a while) to whet the appetite of the casual crowd. I think Fate Reforged would be cracked in abundance, or at the very least more than Dragon’s Maze. More importantly, there would be more incentive to redeem Fate Reforged, which means that the Voice of Resurgence Effect would not apply to Monastery Mentor.

The Voice of Resurgence Effect is a phenomenon coined by the Brainstorm Brewery crew to describe a mythic spiking to unprecedented heights due to the fact that it is the only financially relevant card in the set. Magic Online redemption is one of the factor driving down card prices for new sets and with little incentive for retailers to redeem online sets, the market supply of Voice of Resurgence is lower than your usual chase mythic, thus its lofty price.

I am aiming to get my playset of Monastery Mentor at $20 per piece at the maximum and that is just so I can grind the PPTQs shall the Mentor turns out to be a consensus upgrade in the Jeskai Tokens I am currently running. I would only reach for $25 if Monastery Mentor becomes a multi-archetype staple like Goblin Rabblemaster.

The Soulfire Master was besotted with illusions of Grandeur.
The Soulfire Master was besotted with illusions of Grandeur.

Everytime I take another look at Soulfire Grand Master my opinion of the card tanked a little. While she possess a unique ability to transfigure your burn spell into Lighting Helixes, I think she might be overrated due to the fact that its an ability that is seeing print for the first time and no one has really tested it out yet in real life. While it may be fun to transform my Lightning Strikes into Lightning Helixes, it comes at a cost of an extra cards that is the Soulfire Grand Master herself. Principle of equivalent exchange eh? I do not hit parity until I reaped the lifelink out of my second burn spell and that is assuming I am not playing against a deck like Abzan Reanimator that can grind me from 60 life to zero (true story) or UB Control where my life total is irrelevant most of the time so long it is not infinite (or one billion, as the competitive REL rules demand a set figure for infinite life gain loops).

Her activated ability is no better; having to pay an extra four mana to imbue a spell with buyback is too inefficient for competitive play and is a bit of a win more clause. The only decks I imagine that could abuse this clause are grindy Jeskai control decks, to cast a burn spell with buyback at the end of their opponent’s turn, three damage at a time to slowly finish off your opponent, or control decks seeking a soft lock with reusable counterspell in the late game. Or reusable Dig Through Time or Treasure Cruise. All those scenarios are enticing, but they spell out c-u-t-e.

Soulfire Grand Master has been closing at $20 – $23 apiece on eBay and $25 at StarCityGames. I am staying away from Soulfire Grand Master and I would be selling any copies I rip at the prerelease and the following weeks as fast as I can find a buyer.

It's a trap.
Few truly make a profit out of these sort of cards.

Treasure Cruise may do a decent impression of Ancestral Recall but Temporal Trespass is definitely no Time Walk. At least Temporal Mastery has synergy with cards that manipulate the top of your library. At three blue, you have to be running a predominantly blue deck to be able to cast it, and outside of Commander, I do not see the card trespassing into any format. Temporal Trespass is going for $5 – $7 on eBay and other major retailers, but I would not be buying my Temporal Trespasses anytime soon. I really only need one for my Narset, the Enlightened Master 1v1 Commander deck, but I will wait until I pop one in the slew of Fate Reforged packs I would be opening.

A lesser known method to cast Torrent Elemental from outside the game is to torrent it.
A lesser known method to cast Torrent Elemental from outside the game is to torrent it.

Torrent Elemental is a contender for control finisher in Standard and is able to do a decent emulation of the mighty Thundermaw Hellkite sans haste and five to the face. The Elemental’s second clause is not easy to abuse in Standard unfortunately and as so, would have a hard time dethroning the temperamental Pearl Lake Ancient as the de facto control finisher. If only Torrent Elemental’s second clause can put it into the battlefield tapped from the bulk bin. If only.

That is all for today’s review. Stay tuned next week for more prodding at Fate Reforged mythics. In the mean time, I am really excited for Fate Reforged. As I was writing this piece, a common dragon was just spoiled!

I am an avid fan of Mark Rosewater’s Drive to Work podcast and one of the recurring design concepts he discussed was that for a theme of a set to truly work, it has to be found in common rarity cards to ensure that even casual players who drafts the set once in a while have the opportunity to encounter the theme (Mark Rosewater put it more elegantly of course, I was just paraphrasing to the best of my memory. For the uninitiated, Mark Rosewater is the head designer of Magic and one of the most well-loved voices in the Magic community). Its no secret that I am a big fan of dragons and I am very excited to see Wizards going full throttle with the dragon theme.

ADVERTISEMENT: We are proud to announce the brand new 3rd Edition Grimoire Deck Box. Preorder period is scheduled to be in Jan. Sign up for their newsletter to get the latest updates and offers.

The Gilded Goblin

A Tale of Two Lists – 2014 Edition

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MTGStocks completed a great favor for the community when it released the list of 2014’s biggest risers and decliners of the year on January 1st. Starting with a request from Corbin, these two lists were soon noticed by myself and others for the valuable input they can provide to the community.

Rising to the Top

The first insightful observation came from James Chillcott, who noticed that eighteen cards out of the top twenty risers of the year all started at less than $1 in value on January 1st 2014. To give examples from the risers list, this means that if you bought in on cards like Choke, Stoke the Flames, Forked Bolt, and Orzhov Pontiff in January of 2014 you would have made out incredibly well if you held onto them until now.

Of course, there is a significant danger in pointing this out. Many of the cards that made the top gainers list were either uncommons or came from pre-constructed sets. In other words, it would be very risky to pursue cards based on the uncommon rarity characteristic in hopes of seeing them receive humungous gains like the data shows. We can actually relate these gains to penny stocks. Sure, penny stocks regularly see the gains that cards like Fatestitcher can reach. I’ve even seen some penny stocks reach heights of 10,000%+ gains. Does this mean that it wasn’t risky to go after it? Of course not! Penny stocks are some of the most volatile assets on the market and I would argue that many gainers of the year fall into this category. Look at how many of them are uncommons or were printed in a pre-con or other supplementary product.

Fatestitcher (U)

Forked Bolt (U)

Choke (U) (made the top twenty twice, had two printings)

Blackmail (U) (made the top twenty twice, had two printings)

Squelch (U)

Flames of the Blood Hand (U)

Monastery Swiftspear (U)

Stoke the Flames (U)

Battlefield Forge (R) (more than one printing, and this card actually made the list twice due to becoming Standard legal and having all the printings rise due to the demand from Standard)

Reef Worm (R) (C14 mass printing)

The rest, which only have one printing so far and not in a supplemental product:

Waves of Aggression (R)

Stony Silence (R)

Orzhov Pontiff (R)

Porphyry Nodes (R)

Norin the Wary (R)

Phyrexian Tyranny (R)

*Onakke Catacomb (S) – One interesting “card” that made the top twenty that surprised me was Onakke Catacomb, a planechase Plane card that is only used in the casual format planechase. Yes folks, these cards have value too! If you happened to purchase any of the past planechase sets I would recommend busting out the oversize cards to check them for value. You never know which ones might be worth several dollars these days.

OK, so in reality only six of the top twenty cards that made the list only had one printing, weren’t an uncommon, and weren’t printed in a pre-con. One interesting trend is that none of the cards are mythic rare – this means that mythic rares as a whole are much more stable price wise than rares and uncommons even if the mythic rare turns into a bulk mythic. Another trend amongst these remaining six cards is that they are all from out of print sets.

Let’s take a look at the data another way. Sorting the risers list by highest price rather percentage change tells a different story. The top twenty gainers pricewise from 2014 are as follows:

Card Set Dec 31st Jan 1st Change
Chains of Mephistopheles (R) Legends $348.49 $194.00 79.60%
Volcanic Island (R) Revised Edition $265.99 $125.99 111.10%
Tropical Island (R) Revised Edition $189.56 $107.10 77.00%
Invoke Prejudice (R) Legends $134.97 $54.97 145.50%
Noble Hierarch (R) Conflux $66.44 $27.79 139.10%
Cryptic Command (R) Modern Masters $54.01 $24.45 120.90%
Cryptic Command (R) Lorwyn $52.24 $25.74 103.00%
In the Eye of Chaos (R) Legends $49.99 $26.00 92.30%
Dark Depths (R) Coldsnap $47.49 $25.99 82.70%
Bitterblossom (R) Morningtide $39.20 $18.97 106.60%
Reset (U) Legends $34.13 $13.30 156.60%
Twilight Mire (R) Eventide $30.73 $15.62 96.70%
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite (M) New Phyrexia $27.51 $14.78 86.10%
Metalworker (R) Urza’s Destiny $27.24 $11.77 131.40%
Leyline of Sanctity (R) Magic 2011 (M11) $24.94 $11.89 109.80%
Blood Moon (R) The Dark $24.60 $12.59 95.40%
Hurkyl’s Recall (R) Antiquities $23.27 $12.23 90.30%
Azusa, Lost but Seeking (R) Champions of Kamigawa $22.53 $12.49 80.40%
Ensnaring Bridge (R) 7th Edition $19.98 $8.99 122.20%
Blood Moon (R) Modern Masters $19.95 $7.13 179.80%

The blue chip list, as David Schumann would say, provides insight into the most expensive cards that have had the largest gain this year. Revised dual lands fall into this list, but we also have some hard-to-find Legends cards that have shown up in addition to Modern, Commander, and Legacy staples. What surprises me most is the percentage gain that each of the cards has seen – all of the cards on the list gained at least 77% or more! The average amount that a card on this list gained was 110%!! Overall, this list tells me that Modern as whole has gotten very popular over the course of 2014 but also that the casual market, as always, reaches out with their invisible hands as well to create even higher prices for cards like Invoke Prejudice and In the Eye of Chaos.

Fall from Grace

We can’t talk about winners without also discussing who the biggest losers of 2014 were. Going back to the MTGStocks page, the biggest decliners of 2014 as you might guess were most likely to be a Standard card. In fact, out of the top twenty there were sixteen cards that were just previously Standard legal or have become Standard legal in 2014. The only four cards to buck this trend were:

Misdirection

Unexpectedly Absent

Stifle

Muzzio, Visionary Architect

Each of these cards fell at least -71% from their highest historical price of 2014. Strangely enough, two of those cards are Legacy playable and have been played in some of the top tier Legacy decks of 2014.

My theory for why this happened is twofold. Firstly, three of the cards were from Conspiracy which was a set released just last year. This means that stores had pre-order and release prices that in no way reflected the actual demand of the card. Once the initial “gotta have it NOW!!!” demand was depleted the stores had to lower the price to meet the actual market demand. Unfortunately, due to the somewhat large print run of Conspiracy and the fact that the cards were not Standard legal this meant that the price had to be considerably lowered from initial expectations of what stores thought the price should be.

Secondly, the cards Misdirection and Stifle were both reprints of Legacy-only cards, which will pretty much always significantly reduce the current price of a card. I’m not surprised that they fell so much but the surprisingly deep fall of Misdirection in particular is quite shocking. We might look to the sage advice of buy low and sell later once the price has risen higher. The current $3 for Conspiracy Misdirection could change easily edge upward as time goes on since its Mercadian Masques counterpart is around $10.

Speaking of buy low and sell high, the blue chip cards are the ones I would be most particular about watching for buying in at a lower price. Let’s see which cards by highest price have dropped considerably during 2014.

Card Set Dec 31st Jan 1st Change
Wasteland (P) Magic Player Rewards $300.54 $398.00 -24.50%
Polluted Delta (R) Onslaught $46.19 $88.03 -47.50%
Flooded Strand (R) Onslaught $41.16 $69.98 -41.20%
Misty Rainforest (R) Zendikar $37.99 $52.04 -27.00%
Windswept Heath (R) Onslaught $29.29 $42.99 -31.90%
Bloodstained Mire (R) Onslaught $26.75 $37.94 -29.50%
Wooded Foothills (R) Onslaught $26.20 $42.25 -38.00%
Intuition (R) Tempest $24.14 $30.99 -22.10%
Marsh Flats (R) Zendikar $24.00 $33.04 -27.40%
Dack Fayden (M) Conspiracy $22.00 $59.99 -63.30%
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes (M) Journey into Nyx $18.29 $29.98 -39.00%
True-Name Nemesis (R) Commander 2013 $17.81 $42.79 -58.40%
Mutavault (R) Morningtide $17.57 $34.99 -49.80%
Goblin Piledriver (R) Onslaught $17.32 $21.73 -20.30%
Vindicate (R) Apocalypse $17.09 $23.03 -25.80%
Voice of Resurgence (M) Dragon’s Maze $16.53 $30.40 -45.60%
Polluted Delta (R) Khans of Tarkir $15.99 $23.66 -32.40%
Exploration (R) Urza’s Saga $14.98 $23.75 -36.90%
Elspeth, Knight-Errant (M) Modern Masters $14.95 $19.98 -25.20%

As you probably surmised, the Onslaught fetchlands were going to be on this list due to their recent reprinting in Khans. Thankfully, Khans has also negatively affected the prices of the Zendikar fetches as well since players can easily replace a Zendikar fetch with a Khans fetch in a pinch. This means that fewer Zendikar fetches are needed in Modern these days, so therefore lower prices on the enemy fetches too.

The most expensive card that has dropped considerably in price is the Player Rewards Wasteland, which has dropped $100 during 2014. If you’re in the market for foil Wasteland, this could be the deal that you’ve been waiting for.

In terms of undervalued cards, I would put Voice of Resurgence as undervalued as well as Dack Fayden and Mutavault. I think these three cards, either due to casual or tournament demand, are going to start rising in price over this year and would be surprised if they continued to further decrease in price (unless they are reprinted of course, and then a drop in price is definitely not surprising).

Trends Seen in 2014

In terms of overall trends for cards in 2014, we can see that the top risers percentage wise were the penny stocks that happened to get noticed and explode in price – seemingly overnight. Price memory is a powerful force, since many of the cards in this category really haven’t put up too many results and yet still continue to demand a higher price going into 2015. I would stay away from almost all these cards, as they could all be reprinted again at some point and have already spiked.

Looking at the blue chip gainers, we see that many are reserve list cards that have become noticed and picked up by casuals and tournament players alike. However, we also need to be cautious with this list too since cards like Noble Hierarch and Twilight Mire are included among their number – cards that we know are going to be reprinted eventually and that it is only a matter of time before they drop in price. Like any investment, please do your research even on these blue chip cards to determine if they are ones you should be picking up for value.

Lastly, even the losers have lessons to teach us. What I have gleaned from them are that Standard staples drop the absolute hardest upon rotation and after they are forgotten about (Blood Baron of Vizkopa being the primary example here) so it is best to get rid of these cards when they have peaked in price during the Standard season. Also, Legacy-only staples that are reprinted will drop precipitously from a reprint, so watch for any Legacy reprints to get the most value out of your currently owned Legacy stuff. Finally, be aware that the reprinting of a cycle of previously valuable lands can have drastic effects on the other colors even if those color pairs aren’t reprinted right away.

Not to say that there isn’t potential in the losers. Cards that are otherwise popular can sometimes drop in price simply due to a current overabundance of them in the market. Once they’ve circulated for a while, even after declining the price can start to rise again if the card generates significant tournament and/or casual demand.

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