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WEEKEND PRICE UPDATE: Nov 22/14

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Here’s your weekly update on what’s been shifting around in price in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week. This week, we’ve got a mixed bag of winners and losers coming out of the 3-ring circus that was Grand Prix New Jersey last weekend:

5 Winners of the Week

1.  Black Lotus (Unlimited, Rare): $3500 to $5,000-8,000 (+40-120%)

Our algorithms can’t really get a handle on this one yet, because the data points are mostly hidden, but StarCityGames moved their Power 9 card prices up across the board the day after GPNJ finished, with NM Unlimited Black Lotus being pushed to $8000 retail, and $5200 buy-list. Alpha and Beta P9 were pushed up in similar fashion. This is the biggest jump we’ve seen on Magic’s most iconic cards in a while, but according to my interview with SCG acquisitions staff “they just can’t keep them in stock at the lower price.” Don’t assume that means that Vintage is growing in popularity. If anything less people will be able to afford to approach Vintage, despite the popular proxy rules at most unsanctioned tournaments, as the relevant cards continue to increase across the board to collector/speculator interest. A 9.5 graded version sold on Ebay late this week above $7K, so the new plateau may be real. In the meantime, if you’ve got the capital, be on the look out for nice looking copies in the sub-$5000 range while you still can. (Hint: there are some hiding out in Europe).

Format(s): Vintage

Verdict: Buy/Hold

2.  Forked Bolt (Rise of the Eldrazi, Uncommon): $5.32 to $3.14 (+144%)

One of our winners from two weeks ago is still moving up as it’s role in handling U/R Delvers, Pyromancer’s and anything else with a X/2 stat set comes to the forefront. It’s a great card, but could easily see a reprint in MM2 in June ’15, so I’m a seller into hype here, and looking for fresher ideas.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Sell

3.  Mesmeric Orb (Mirrodin, Rare): $3.78 to $4.94 (+31%)

This oddball mill card is popping up on the radar because some pros have been fooling around with some Mill/Control decks. It’s highly unlikely to develop into a top tier deck, and I wouldn’t expect the card to get much above $7-8 even if it did, as the decks are not easy to play and the card and has virtually no other applications.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Trade/Sell

4.  Battlefield Forge (9th, Rare): $8.33 to $9.62 (+15%)

In a Standard metagame where both Mardu and Jeskai decks are doing well, it should come as no surprise that a land that can fix mana for both is on the rise. The bump isn’t exclusive to the 9th edition copy either, and Shivan Reef has enjoyed similar increases recently. Heading into the spring, I’d be happy to unload painlands anywhere north of $8 in exchange for undervalued KTK standard staples. This will leave you set up to reacquire these lands for $1.50-$2.50 per, which is right about where we found them before they were reprinted back into relevance last summer.

Format(s): Standard/Modern

Verdict: Sell/Trade

5. Omniscience (M13, Mythic): $9.61 to $10.30 (+9%)

This loopy M13 mythic has found a home in numerous combo decks, including Omni-Tell in Legacy and I like it even at these levels as a long term pickup, since it’s a bit too weird to be reprinted anytime soon and has upside if fresh decks are uncovered that can make use of it’s wacky rules text.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Buy/Hold

 

5 Top Losers of the Week

1. Xenagos, the Reveler (Theros, Mythic): $10.29 to $8.40 (-18%)

Our villain without a home slides further away from his $20+ highs this week with G/R Monsters solidly established as one of the Tier 2 wannabes in Standard so far this season. With Mardu, Jeskai and Abzan decks stealing all the thunder, and the Temur builds not being interested in his specific abilities, Xenagos is back on the bench, waiting for cards from the winter sets to put him back in the game.

Format(s): Standard/Casual

Verdict: Buy

2. Temple of Plenty (Born of the Gods, Rare): $5.93 to $5.01 (-16%)

With Abzan decks popularity waning a bit, and no other decks really even considering the need for a W/G Scryland, it’s no surprise to see Temple of Plenty sliding down the value chain. Temples aren’t likely to have a big future beyond this year in Standard, but they’ll be great collection pickups for Casual and EDH deck use when they bottom out in advance of rotation during summer 2015.

Format(s): Standard/Casual

Verdict: Sell/Trade

3.  Kiora, the Crashing Wave (Born of the Gods, Mythic): $14.62 to $12.74 (-13%)

Kiora is another hero without a home, and the fact that she’s being reprinted alongside Elspeth, Sun’s Champion in a Duel Deck product this winter isn’t helping any. I’d be happily getting out of this card while you can above $10, trading into virtually any of the fantastic, yet price depressed rares (Mantis Rider, Siege Rhino, etc) in Khans of Tarkir that are being held down by the presence of fetch lands and the massive amount of KTK opened this fall.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell/Trade

4.  Polukranos, World Eater (Theros, Rare) 11.45 to 10.15 (-11%)

The baddest of the big dumb green creatures is still called up to play in several of the brews in Standard, but none of those decks are dominating top tables, and he’s only going to get a 3-6 months to prove himself again before he heads towards $5 permanently. If you need him or like to play him, keep him. Otherwise, I’d like to be out of this guy way early.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

5.  Mutavault (Morningtide, Rare) $21.49 to $19.12 (-11%)

A lack of focus on Modern and lack of Tribal decks in the Top 16 of Grand Prix New Jersey is likely contributing to the slide on what may be the best “man-land” of all time. This card performed extremely well in my Legacy Slivers build last weekend, and it has many present and future applications in practically every non-Standard format possible due to it’s inherent versatility alongside any and all creature types. As such, I’ve been targeting M14 copies around $15-16 as another reprint should now be a few years off at least.

Verdict: Buy

Quick Hits:

  • I’m actively looking for under-priced P9 cards for the first time in ages. Plenty of people think the P9 price boosts are pure hype so price uncertainty is likely to leave the door wide open for negotiation. For someone who picked up an Unlimited mox below $500 years back, being able to cash out above $1K may be too tempting to pass up with Xmas bills looming.  Better yet, track one of the nay-sayers down and offer them cash for their P9 to test their certainty.
  • Plenty of good Khans of Tarkir rares and mythics are at lows they are unlikely to dig below until the summer doldrums. I’m happily acquiring cards like See the Unwritten, Empty the Pits, Narset, Enlightened Master in the hopes that they will either a) find homes in Standard this winter or b) see reasonable gains in the mid-long term based on their inherent power levels and usefulness in casual/EDH play.
  • Siege Rhino is showing up in Modern lists. I’ve been nabbing foils in the $15 range, expecting to one day find them at $30+. Remember, Khans won’t be drafted with the 3rd set this year, so Jan/Feb is likely the absolute lowest we’ll see most KTK cards until summer, right around the MM2 hype high point.
  • StarCityGames announced today that only 3 of their 15+ weekend Open Series will be Legacy tournaments in 2015. The slots previously allocated to Legacy will be shifted to Modern, which should help Modern stage a bit of a comeback in 2015 while suppressing prices on Tier 2/Non-Reserved Legacy staples. Be on your toes as those trends start to play out and keep an eye out for folks dumping Legacy decks at bargain prices due to lack of local access from the Open series.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Casual Fridays

Price Surprises Pt. 2

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By: Cliff Daigle

I had meant for this to be a two-part series, but there’s just too much to talk about! Remember, these are cards at $5 or more that might well be sorted into bulk boxes, because many of these were very cheap at one point. I’ve already gone to my boxes and re-sorted more than once.

Mercadian Masques: Unmask, Dust Bowl

Unmask is perhaps one of the most busted things to do on turn one in Legacy or Vintage. It does cost you an extra card, but it needs no mana and has to be countered. (Otherwise, you’re taking that counterspell!) There was a time when I played in a tournament, when it was called Type 1, and I played this before anything else. They cast Force of Will, so then I played Swamp-Dark Ritual–Hypnotic. Brutal.

Dust Bowl has seen play in Legacy rarely, it’s more of an EDH card. It’s very good at what it does, turning all of your basics into Wastelands.

Nemesis: Kor Haven

Mostly, it’s a second Maze of Ith, but if they attack you and you have blockers, you can kill their creature without losing one yourself. It’s better, but it costs mana.

Prophecy: Phyrexian Altar

One of the iconic engine cards in token combo decks. Make X creatures, sacrifice them, do something silly. Casual all the way.

Planeshift: Diabolic Intent

It’s not used with combo decks, because it needs a creature. Commander players can just play Demonic Tutor, and often do alongside this. I’ve see it the most with Child of Alara decks. Wipe the board and find what you want!

 

Odyssey: Squirrel Mob, Patron Wizard, Karmic Justice

Your eyes do not deceive you. The Mob is indeed. It’s all because a certain amount of casual players love their squirrels. It’s surprising to me that the foil is only double the regular, but then again, it makes sense. You want to play a deck with four Mobs, not two. Patron Wizard was brutal when he was Standard-legal, and remains a very good play in Wizard-themed decks. Karmic Justice is an all-star in Commander.

Judgment: Solitary Confinement

This sees a little play in Legacy, as part of Enchantress decks or decks that want to put their shields up. This doesn’t have a condition that breaks the bubble, so once you can draw extras, having hexproof and prevention is pretty strong.

Onslaught: Mana Echoes, Blatant Thievery

Mana Echoes. How many times did I try to break this card and have it work in my Turbo-Thallid deck? I suppose I could do it now, but the thrill is gone. The card is insane, enabling all sorts of infinite shenanigans. It’s a two-card combo with lots of cards (Sliver Queen!) and with something like Skyshroud Elf it can make even a Jade Mage fill the board up after the third token.

Blatant Thievery, along with Insurrection, is the card I love most about Commander.

Legions: Toxin Sliver, Magma Sliver, Synapse Sliver

Slivers are going to show up several times on this list, and that’s because they are awesome and terrifying. If you built a Sliver deck back in the day (or several different days) and put it on a shelf, take a look at what it’s worth and have a gasp.

Scourge: Dragonspeaker Shaman

While reprints are a factor in most cards, I don’t think new-frame versions of this card are going to hit this too hard. Either Fate Reforged or Dragons of Tarkir seems likely to have this card.

Mirrodin: Extraplanar Lens, Solemn Simulacrum, Gilded Lotus

The Commander combo with the Lens involves Snow-Covered lands. This lets you have the bonus be one-sided, which is handy considering that you’re down a card. Blowing this up feels so good, but bouncing their Lens feels even better!

Solemn’s art dictates a price swing. This version, showing Jens Thoren, is worth more, as is the Commander 2011 version. I miss the Invitational winners getting their own cards! Gilded Lotus has had two set printings plus an FTV version, and is still going strong. The fact that you can tap it immediately and play a three-drop makes it so that you don’t lose much tempo.

Darksteel: Sundering Titan, Skullclamp

The Titan is another card with several printings that hasn’t impacted his price too much. He’s sometimes a Reanimator target, and is one of the most unfair things to Tinker up. Skullclamp really surprised me, I’d thought that its printings would have tanked the value further. The new-art version in Commander 2014 is at $2, which was my expectation.

Fifth dawn: Doubling Cube

What’s the only thing better than lots of mana? Lots of mana times two! This is a hilarious card, as it’s only good when you have seven or more mana. Most Magic cards are good at that point. Its interaction with the God Kruphix is pretty darn hilarious.

Champions of Kamigawa: Marrow-Gnawer, Legendary lands

Marrow-Gnawer fits like a glove into that Relentless Rats deck you love. He needs lots and lots of Rats. Magic has given us lots of rats, but you can’t add Marrow-Gnawer to just any token theme deck like you could a card like Krenko, Mob Boss.

The legendary lands from Champions are a real surprise to me. They don’t enter tapped and give one color of mana, so they are an upgrade over a basic land. Untapping and granting fear are neat abilities, preventing two damage is okay, granting first strike or +1/+1 is a yawn. I wouldn’t have thought the price difference would be so stark, though!

Betrayers of Kamigawa: Mirror Gallery, Ink-Eyes, Flames of the Blood Hand

Mirror Gallery. How fun…and this card was printed around the dawn of EDH as a format. Despite Commander players not needing this card, other casual formats keep the interest and the price high. Flames of the Blood Hand is at this price despite being in the Fire and Lightning deck. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in Modern Masters 2. Burn players mostly opt for this over Skullcrack, but having both is not a bad choice.

Ink-Eyes has a Planechase printing that’s $3 less, and was the prerelease promo. A great pickup for less than $5.

Saviors of Kamigawa: The most expensive seven cards

First of all, understand that Champions and Betrayers were underpowered sets, Saviors just doesn’t have a lot of product out there. That adds upwards pressure on the prices.

Mikokoro is popping up in some Death and Taxes list, as a pretty hilarious addition. Giving the other person cards is not a drawback if they are not usable. Erayo is banned in Commander but is pretty amazing in an Affinity list. Sakashima is an awesome and abusable cloning legend.

Oboro is a one-of in Modern Tron to help turn colorless mana blue. Play it, tap it, pay to bounce, play it again, tap again. Miren is a ‘fixed’ Diamond Valley, giving you an indication of its power level. Michiko is just mean, the most rattlesnake of cards. Kami of the Crescent Moon is a legend but is used in decks seeking to abuse those draws, and was a big part of the old Owling Mine decks. (Look at this Pro Tour Top 8 deck! You gave them cards faster than they could use them! The format was just silly.)

Next week, we make it to Ravnica block, when Magic’s renaissance began.

 

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Legacy Hero #4

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Legacy Hero #4

 

 

Welcome back everyone! Last week we talked about Pucatrade, sealed product, what build of Stoneblade I’m going with, and the aftermath of switching standard FNM decks. This week, I will go over the fall out of GP Jersey and what that means for Legacy Hero, setting expectations for the trade binder, knowing your market, and speculation opportunities I am going to take to try and get a little more value for those dual lands.

I’m sure everyone that is reading this article is familiar with GP Jersey. 3rd largest Grand Prix in Magic’s history. That’s pretty amazing considering the two larger events, GP Richmond (Modern) and GP  Las Vegas (Limited: Modern Masters) were more popular formats. UWr Stoneblade took home the trophy. Two UWr Stoneblade decks in the top 16 is a great sign that the deck choice everyone made is a good one. The top 16 as a whole shows a pretty decent amount of diversity.

Top 16 from Grand Prix New Jersey (I refuse to call them Sultai or Temur or whatever)

UWr Stoneblade     1st

Infect                    2nd

Storm                    3rd

Miracles        4th

Miracles        5th

U/R Delver        6th

Metalworker        7th

U/R Landstill        8th

Omni-Tell        9th

UWr Delver      10th

Miracles      11th

Elves                  12th

Sneak and Show  13th

Grixis Control      14th

UWr Stoneblade    15th

BUG Delver          16th

 

The core cards that make up the UWr Stoneblade deck can be used to build seven decks out of this top 16. That is great for peace of mind. I have talked to a few different locals that started to get into legacy before and they stopped because the decks they were building (Maverick) stopped winning. I wasn’t able to change any minds when I talked to them about it but I have to admit that I wasn’t very high on Stoneblade decks as a whole going into what I expected to be a field full of U/R Delver decks. I’m glad the rest of the field adjusted to handle it. I was reading Chas Andres’s article this week (StarCity Premium Content) and he covered the finances of Legacy pretty well. I highly recommend his articles. His articles are the only reason I sprung for SCG Premium. That aside, what he said near the end of his article this week really stuck with me.

“Even though Grand Prix New Jersey did a pretty good job of shaking up the format, I don’t expect much to change in the world of Legacy finance. Price-wise, the overall Legacy index is still slowly dropping, a trend that has been going on since the price spike last March. The market overcorrected in the first quarter of 2014, and prices are just now coming back down to where they were prior to that jump.

While the success stories coming out of the GP have the potential to rise in price, most Legacy-playable cards will continue to slowly drop in value until the next major bull market. This generally happens at some point between February and April each year, and if it doesn’t happen in 2015, we’ll have to re-examine the long-term future of these cards. For now though, it remains a fine time to both buy and sell Legacy staples without having to worry all that much about major shifts in price.”

If the price of the deck remains stable it makes my job a whole lot easier. I dont’ have to continue to chase cards as they get more and more expensive. Trying to get this done by April is a stretch but we will see.

 

I wasn’t able to make it to an FNM this week. Heck, I wasn’t able to do much of anything magic related. I caught about 45 minutes worth of matches from the Grand Prix. I was pretty concerned actually. I want to be able to tell everyone about all of the awesome things that I was able to do for Legacy Hero and how much progress I made. The bottom line is that I won’t be able to knock it out of the park week after week. This isn’t my full time job, at least not until we get that magic financiers union that offers great benefits. I will always do my best though. I would like to stress that I want people to email me any questions they have for me at mtglegacyhero@gmail.com. I’m not ready for a mail bag article yet but if there is something I’m missing or something you guys want me to talk about or try I will.  You guys just let me know.

Now we can talk about what I was able to do this past week. Here is a snapshot of what I sent out so far.puca

What isn’t shown is the deal I made for a LP Foil Hinterland Harbor. 800 points due to some surface scratches on the face of the card. I made sure to message the trade partner beforehand and see if he was willing to make a deal for the card based on pictures. I have had that card in my trade binder FOREVER because of those stupid couple of scratches on the top corner. Getting 800 points (8 bucks) for it is worth it to me.

The other cards are were just things I had laying around. I kinda cheated with the shipping. Part of my real job is mailing out paperwork to clients so I might have used stamps l had in my desk from work. I understand that not everyone has that perk so let’s talk about that for a second. The trade for the Swamp and the pair of Fertile Ground was barely above the cost of shipping. Is it really making me money by spending the money on stamps/shipping these cards? I think so. The cards I have sent out so far have been rotting. The best buy price on the Fertile Ground was Channel Fireball at $.02. Best buy list for the Archivist was StrikeZone at $1.35 but I don’t have enough other stuff to send them to make it worth it. This was the best way to cash out these cards. Now I will have 1109 points for the five cards that were collecting dust. Making the most out of everything you have is probably the most important lesson I can ever talk about.

 

Last week I had mentioned the white Commander 2014 I won and how I was undecided on what to do with it. The Grand Prix made my decision for me. I sold the Containment Priest out of it for $20.00 to a friend of mine that needed it. I will need that card for my deck later on but I can’t see that card holding it’s value for ever. Selling into the hype is usually the correct decision. I can already re-buy for less than I sold it for on ebay. The prices of the Commander 2014 cards are trending down. If you are a mtgprice.com protrader you get these handy little emails telling you about major inventory swings(which can indicate an incoming price increase) , major buylist increases, and important price gains/losses. One of the latest emails I received  showed me this pro email 1

Nine cards on that list are from the Commander 2014 set. I’m not going to make any real money selling off the rest of the deck. I uploaded the remaining cards onto Pucatrade and put them into my casual binder.

 

The last thing I want to talk about this week is a speculation opportunity I took. I have been hearing for a little while about Kuldotha Forgemaster being underpriced. I saw a few tweets on the card from Chas and our fellow writer Travis Allentweet

How could I pass up this kind of opportunity. I picked up a playset of them from my local store Monday, bought a few more on ebay, and traded for a couple more. I’m sitting on 15 of them now and I’m in for less than a dollar a copy. Is this a huge gamble. Not really. I agree with the people that said it is going to go up in price, but will it go up enough to make it worth it? Am I going to have to wait 3 years? I don’t think so but we will see.

 

That’s all I have this week. Next week I will go over knowing your local market, selling on tcgplayer and ebay, and maybe even have our first real trade for something. Maybe. Thanks again everyone.

City of Traders, ProTrader

PROTRADER: The Magic Market for the Rest of Us (Well, You): Trading

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By: Travis Allen

I began playing Magic beyond the kitchen table at Zendikar’s release five years ago, way back in 2009. At the time I think the most expensive card I owned was Doubling Season, and I’m pretty sure it was about $5. I knew next to nothing about how much most cards were worth, or what was good to trade for, or what might spike in price next week. I was focused solely on making gigantic Cytoplast Root-Kins and sacrificing Leveler while Endless Whispers was in play.

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