Be Patient

Welcome to the new block and the new rotation. Khans is going to be legal for 18 months, not two years. I’ve preached patience before, because I have learned the hard way that prices are all at their highest on this prerelease weekend!

It bears repeating: Trade away everything you open at a release or prerelease. This even includes the promo cards. The value is going to go down in 95% of cases, so you want to get the most for your buck. Do not trade for anything from Khans this weekend, unless you absolutely have to have it this coming Friday for FNM. You’ll pay a premium this weekend and next.

We don’t track preorder prices here at MTGPrice, so if you find preorder prices different from my finds, feel free to leave comments or act accordingly.

I’m not going to go over everything from Khans, I’m going to list some preorder prices and what price I’ll be looking for in a few weeks/months.

Mythics:

The five Khans ($3-7 for everyone but Surrak, who is around $10-$15)

Surrak deserves his increased price. Each of these is a fun build-around, but five flash mana for a 6/6 that can’t be countered is pretty big game. If this shows the slightest sign of being Legacy playable, you’ll want to jump all over the foils too.

I don’t think Surrak will fall far, but the rest should keep their current price, at least to within a dollar or two. Pre-ordering them is not really necessary, but won’t hurt too badly. 

Clever Impersonator ($10-$15)

It’s got the right converted mana cost and offers the greatest flexibility of any Clone effect ever. You’ll need a very good reason not to run this in any blue Commander deck, or any Cube. I would expect this to creep down to about $7-$10, don’t pay more than that. Foils are a different matter: If I could trade for a foil this weekend at $25 or $30, I’d do that but not more.

If we get this effect at four mana, could we possibly get a combination of this and Vesuvan Doppelganger at five or six mana? Every upkeep, it becomes a different nonland permanent!

See the Unwritten ($3-5)

I love this card too much! I don’t know if I can be logical and impartial about it. There’s no way to cheat the mana cost, as Chord of Calling or Summoning Trap can do. It’s a greed-testing card in Commander: Do you need one thing now, or are you going to wait until you’ve got a 4-power creature in order to get two more creatures? If you can get it under $3, that seems like a steal to me.

I’ll admit, I’m likely going to be greedy with it, but the correct play will often be to cast it when your board is empty. Keep in mind that the leftovers go to your graveyard to be Delve fuel.

Empty the Pits ($1-5)

Speaking of Delve fuel! I plan on using this without Delving in EDH, but in Standard, this has a chance to be ridiculously powerful. I’m not yet ready to pay more than $2-$3 for it, though.

I will say, though, that as an instant-speed, end-of-turn finisher, I could easily see this hitting $10 or more. Heaven help us if Fate Reforged contains a permanent that lowers Delve costs, because this will be one of the primary beneficiaries.

Rares:

The Fetchlands ($15-$20)

I’ve said it, others have said it, read it again: This is going to be the best-selling set ever. The value will be there to crack boxes for value, and the fetches are a big reason for that. Think about the shocklands’ prices during Return to Ravnica block: They sometimes dipped below $10, went as high as $15.

Your first order of business will be to get all the ones you need for your decks. There will be a lot of people who simply get four of each and wait, but I’m not one of those people. If you want to get a playset of each because you brew a lot, that’s totally understandable and I understand the appeal of not wanting to trade for cards every time you have an idea.

I will be picking up a few for Commander, but for casual play, don’t try to hold these long-term for possible needs. Think about how tough it is to trade for a shockland right now. It isn’t! Especially right now as they rotate out of Standard, but there is an enormous supply of shocks out there, and there will be more fetches opened in Khans than shocks were opened in Return to Ravnica or Gatecrash. 

Keep in mind that Wizards put Verdant Catacombs in an event deck (Magic 2012’s Vampire Onslaught) so there’s a very good chance that event decks for the next 18 months might contain one, increasing supply even further!

The short version: I don’t believe that you’ll have a chance to gain a lot of monetary value by holding onto fetchlands. Shocklands didn’t get a big bump in their second year of Standard legality, and fetches will be in this format for six months less.

Foil fetches, though…that might be a different story. I don’t mind admitting it: I am going to trade for as many foil fetchlands as I can. I’ve gotten to a point where I’m content to wait on adding a card to an EDH deck until I get the foil version. Foil fetches, especially these, where the foils have two styles (Onslaught and Judge) and both are over $300, will represent a way for foil-hungry players to get what they want at a decent price.

When you have a foil fetchland available for trade, and you meet someone who wants it for their pimped-out deck, they will be ravenous for it. Feed their need.

Butcher of the Horde ($2)

Between Temples and Confluence and all sorts of things, I think that playing this on turn four is not unreasonable. Having a creature around to give it haste is just ridiculous. I think there’s a lot of potential here, at not a lot of risk. Bloodsoaked Champion is indeed the combo it appears to be, giving haste at first, and later on, allowing for vigilance or lifelink as needed.

Utter End ($2-$5)

This is going to be a sought-after Game Day Promo. It’s a very good card, useful in just about any situation, and this plus Hero’s Downfall and Thoughtseize is a strong pull for BW being a starting point for decks.

I’m going to trying very hard for the full-art versions, I’ll be somewhat into regular foils, and if the regulars get to $1 or less (remember: best-selling set ever!) then I’ll be eagerly on that too.

Join me next week as I take you through some things I really want to get now that they are out of Standard.

Khans of Tarkir: A Full Financial Review

By: Travis Allen

Khans of Tarkir is nearly upon us. Players from every format can’t wait to start cracking packs due to the long-awaited return of the Onslaught Fetchlands. The return of the fetches, along with the curious nature of the block, the change to the Standard rotation model, and the official arrival of wedges has sent people into a tizzy. It’s that lovely time of year when every card is bursting with potential and brewers are salivating uncontrollably.

The pricing for this set, like most fall sets before it, will have its own little wrinkles. The major factor in thinking about card prices for Khans is the fetches. Demand for these is going to extend across virtually every single format. Vintage, Legacy, Modern, Standard, Cube, and EDH players alike are going to want copies. With such a massive amount of demand they will easily be the most expensive rares. When five rares are hogging the lion’s share of the box value it’s going to suppress the price of the entire rest of the box. Rares that would have been $10+ in another set will be $4-$6 instead. Mythics will still be worth the most, but their ceilings will be lower than they would have been otherwise.

Of course card prices are still limited by the value of a box. As soon as cracking packs gets more valuable than selling boxes sealed, vendors will immediately start doing so. A natural balance is reached and demand is satiated while prices stabilize. This means we won’t be seeing any $30 Polluted Deltas, but it does mean we’re going to see a lot of the non-fetch rares in circulation. Oh, did I also mention this is going to be the most opened set in history? It will be. Theros was similarly the most opened at its launch, and hype for Khans is higher what with the fetches in the set. Because of this, it may appear that a lot of my prices are on the low side. I prefer to err on the side of prudence anyways, but it is especially wise in light of this set’s dynamics. In fact, take a look at Theros prices right now.

Capture

There are a whopping three non-land rares over $3. These prices should rise a bit between now and Christmas, so while a few more may break into the $5+ range I doubt it will be more than a small handful. Also notice that all five rare lands are sub-$4. Imagine what the set breakdown looks like when you jack those five up into the $8-$15 range. All the rest of the cards, mythics included, get noticeably cheaper.

I bring all of this up to make a point that nearly all of these cards will drop from their current values, and they will drop hard. I discuss prices for many of these rares that would be over $2-$3, but only two or three from all that I discuss will manage that. The rest will drop firmly into bulk.

One last thing before I jump into the review. It’s important to remember when reading any set review that we are forced to evaluate cards in a pseudo-vacuum, but they never exist as such. When I look at Brimaz, King of Oreskos I have to consider the card individually, free of whatever the metagame looks like that particular month. Brimaz’s text box isn’t going to change, but the cards other people are playing will. I need to focus on what concrete information I have available to me. Because of this, set reviews are especially challenging. I have to look at Brimaz and make an evaluation based strictly on the words printed on the card, but his true worth will be dependent on the cards around him, a pool that will change significantly over time. Cards that are excellent right now may have been trash in an alternate timeline. It would be easy to construct a Standard environment where Desecration Demon is crap (such as he was in INN-RTR when Lingering Souls was legal,) or where Prime Speaker Zegana is a chase mythic. Even the hallowed Jace, the Mind Sculptor was nigh unplayable at release since there wasn’t a single other playable blue card in the format and Bloodbraid Elf + Blightning threatened to shut him down as soon as he resolved.

The point I’m making is that when considering this review, and all other reviews, it’s important to be good Bayesians and recognize that while a powerful card should be good, and a weaker situational card should be bad, the constraints of the format around them, complete unknowns to the hapless reviewer, will be the true determining factor in identifying whether a card is a bulk mythic or a $20 rare.

If you just want to know what to expect from the lands, click here.

White

Bulk:
Herald of Anafenza
High Sentinels of Arashin
Master of Pearls

 

End Hostilities
1 Month: $2-$4
Fate Reforged: $2-$3

With the departure of Supreme Verdict, the cheapest unconditional sweeper we are left with is End Hostilities at five mana. (I believe there has only been one other brief period where there was no four-mana sweeper.) Even given that history it isn’t terribly surprising Wizards finally tossed it, as morph really wants the format to slow down a bit so it has time to shine.

End Hostilities will certainly be played, but only in Standard. While Verdict was exciting because of applications in Modern and Legacy, Hostilities has none of that appeal. Supreme Verdict hung around $3-$6 for most of its lifespan. End Hostilities should be a tad lower; probably in the $2-$4 range for the most part. People will play it and there will be demand, but they will do so because they have to, not because they want to.

 

Wingmate Roc
1 Month: $4-$6
Fate Reforged: $3-$5

Imagine for a minute that instead of mythic this was printed at rare. Would you even give it a second look? If I told you this was an intro deck rare, would you believe me? I’m thinking it’s likely.

Perhaps I don’t “get” Roc. That’s entirely possible. It’s just that this feels rather underwhelming to me. Broodmate Dragon was good during his time, but as long as you tapped the mana you were getting eight flying power. Roc loses 25% of the damage and becomes conditional in exchange for easier mana and a small lifegain trigger. I’ve heard people compare Wingmate to Archangel of Thune. I don’t see them as being similar though. Archangel immediately put an end to racing. Attacking into it was so difficult because of the lifegain, and as soon as your opponent untapped with it their entire army was growing along with their life total.

That raid trigger isn’t just going to fire every time either. There are plenty of situations where you either will be unable to trigger it at all, or you’ll be chump-attacking to turn it on. In those situations you trade whatever for a ¾ flyer. Occasionally you’ll be happy to make that exchange, but not always. Finally, the lifegain is fairly minimal. If you only attack with your two Rocs you’re gaining a whopping two life. Sure you can alpha strike and gain maybe five or six, but aren’t you in great shape at that point anyways?

Archangel was pretty expensive. Archangel was also a major Standard threat, Modern playable, and an Angel. I don’t see Roc doing much at all in Standard, but I accept that I could be totally wrong on that. If we see it start putting up results then the price will certainly rise and you’ll have time to get in, but until then, I’d trade my copies away.

Blue

Bulk:
Dig Through Time
Icy Blast
Kheru Spellsnatcher

 

Clever Impersonator
1 Month: $7-$10
Fate Reforged: $5-$8

First things first, EDH is going to love this. If you have blue in your deck this is basically an auto-include. Impersonator is getting a good chunk of demand from there, especially the foils. Now how about sixty card formats? The last time a clone was playable was back in the M12 days when we had both Phantasmal Image and Phyrexian Metamorph. We also had something else at that time: Birthing Pod. Birthing Pod decks brought a giant pile of ETB creatures to the table that both Image and Metamorph were happy to copy, and Metamorph could even copy Pod as well. Image continued to see support in Modern and Legacy where it acts as another two-drop lord for fish. You’ll notice that no merfolk decks are running any other clones though.

Unless there’s a deck with a great deal of ETB effects, I don’t see Impersonator making huge waves in Standard. Yes, cloning your opponent’s Planeswalker is awesome, but it doesn’t actually solve the problem of your opponent having a Planeswalker. (Unless it’s Garruk.) They also got theirs down before you. When using a clone effect cloning your opponent’s creatures is usually plan B, so you’re really only playing this to clone your guys. Without a Pod deck, is it going to be good enough? Given that Siege Rhino is in Abzan, I’d guess not.

As I said, EDH demand will persist for Impersonator. There will also be people eager to try it out at FNM. As such, the price is likely to stay north of $4, but I doubt by too much. I’d expect a slow descent until next Spring.

 

Pearl Lake Ancient
1 Month: $2
Fate Reforged: $1-$3

Pearl Lake Ancient is a control finisher, and by definition, a one or two-of. Even Aetherling, the most obnoxious control finisher in years, spent his entire Standard tenure dwindling towards his current price of seventy cents. Pearl Lake will hang out at mythic bulk.

Black

Bulk:
Retribution of the Ancients

 

Bloodsoaked Champion
1 Month: $2-$4
Fate Reforged: $2-$5

Bloodsoaked Champion is a curious one. Normally it would be a pretty easy bulk rare. A few aggro black lists would run it, but generally it would be unlikely to have a large enough presence to warrant a real price tag. The equation this time around is changed by the Mardu hotness Butcher of the Horde, which we’ll discuss further down in the multicolor section. The hook here is that you can sac Champion to Butcher for haste or lifelink, swing with Butcher, then rebuy your champion for 1B. As a creature that can come down on turn one then become relevant with your curve-topper later, Champion has potential.

I don’t think he hits bulk anytime soon. His preorder price is in the $4-$5 range and cards don’t typically drop to bulk from there too quickly. There are two possible paths for Champion. The first is that there aren’t enough lists running him alongside Butcher, which means his price dwindles towards bulk further down the road. The second path is that he and Butcher become bestest buds, which should shore his price up in the $3-$5 range, depending on how good the lists end up being.

 

Empty the Pits
1 Month: $2-$4
Fate Reforged: $1-$4

When I read this at first I saw “XBBBB” and I figured it was a real card. Then I noticed it was XX instead. Oof.

What happens when you pay real mana for this? Six mana gets you a 2/2. Eight for four power. Ten for six. Twelve mana for eight power. Meanwhile, Wingmate Roc up there is getting you six power for half the cost, and it’s all in the air. Clearly we’re supposed to be paying for this with Delve. How reliable is delve going to be? On average I’d say you could probably expect to get one to three extra zombies around turn six. Let’s say that on turn six you can exile four cards. That means you’re paying six mana (one zombie) and exiling four cards (two more zombies) for a total of three zombies. At that point it’s a six-mana instant that says “put three 2/2 zombies into play tapped.” Limited all-star perhaps, but we’re playing constructed here.

As the game goes late this clearly gets much stronger, and with that mana cost later rather than sooner is going to be the game plan anyways.  On turn eight you could potentially threaten fix or six zombies at end of turn which will certainly win a game, but hardly feels format-breaking.

Even if you imagine this in a best-case scenario, how often do decks run more than two copies? Only the most devoted self-mill decks could conceivably run four. As with any delve card, each copy of Empty the Pits in your deck makes the rest of them worse. That doesn’t bode well for financial gains.

I have difficulty seeing Empty the Pits doing much to really shape the way the format plays. I don’t doubt it will see action, perhaps even consistently, in a few black lists. It’s just that the quantity used will be limited and the slot fillable by other late-game finishers if you prefer. As for casual demand, Army of the Damned seems like it would be better in 80% of situations, and that card is $1.80. I see Empty the Pits petering out over the next few months towards mythic bulk.

 

Grim Haruspex
1 Month: Bulk
Fate Reforged: Bulk – $2

I’m tossing this in here basically as a heads up that I think this card may be playable. The drawing condition is a bit restrictive, but with Bloodsoaked Champion and Butcher of the Horde you’re certainly setting up a machine to get paid. The unmorph cost is about as aggressive as it gets, and while a 3/2 for 3 isn’t winning any awards it isn’t shameful either. I don’t think this ever really breaks $3 but I wouldn’t hesitate to pick up a set now if you want to play a Bloodsoaked Champion/Butcher list.

 

Necropolis Fiend
1 Month: Bulk
Fate Reforged: Bulk – $2

Is this the next Desecration Demon? Maybe. A 6/6 body was pretty legit because it was bigger than nearly every other creature in the format. A 4/5 is nothing to shake a stick at, but he loses to Polukranos straight up. You also can’t just slam him on T4 and run away with the game. On the flip side he can come down on turn five or six for two or three mana while easily leaving removal up, and he’ll let you Avatar of Woe a relevant creature about once a game.

Perhaps Fiend is bulk for the next eighteen months. Perhaps he’s bulk until 5/5s for four mana rotate and suddenly he becomes way more playable. I’m honestly not sure. I know that I want him on our radar though.

Red

Bulk:
Crater’s Claws
Dragon-Style Twins
Howl of the Horde
Jeering Instigator

 

Ashcloud Phoenix
1 Month: $3-$4
Fate Reforged: $1-$3

I’ve been bullish on four-drop red mythics once or twice in the past few years and they haven’t panned out a single time. While Hellrider and Hero of Oxid ridge saw gigantic spikes in price in their day, we haven’t seen anything of that sort since Innistrad. Whether we just haven’t had the right card or the right format I’m not sure. What I do know is that Ashcloud Phoenix will not be that card.

A 4/1 flyer for four is about on par with what to expect out of red’s aggressive deck curve-topper so long as it has lots of other good text. Unfortunately, Ashcloud doesn’t. When it returns to the battlefield it’s as a morph that will be easily blocked or killed. If it hasn’t been unmorphed it will stay dead the second time. Meanwhile the unmorph cost is prohibitively expensive at six. Any deck reasonably interested in Ashcloud is not going to be getting excited about getting to six mana to be able to unmorph this. Even if you do, it’s trigger is good but not necessarily game-winning. The end result is that it’s a weak-ish creature whose condition for repetition is too difficult or costly to satisfy. We won’t be seeing this one’s prices rise from inevitable ashes.

 

Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
1 Month: $15-$20
Fate Reforged: $12-$18

Chandra, Pyromaster was the best red Planeswalker ever when she first hit the scene last year. This year it appears Sarkhan is wresting that trophy away from her. The turn he comes down he has two choices: become a 4/4 flying indestructible haste dragon, or do four damage to something on the other side of the table. Given that he shares a mana cost with Stormbreath Dragon, his first ability is right on curve. Both Sarkhan and Stormbreath come down on five and attack for four in the air. If you’re not in the market to swing immediately, perhaps because you’re being pressured by an opposing creature, Sarkhan is capable of blowing that up instead of attacking. Four damage is a serious chunk of damage. It won’t kill Polukranos, but it will nail most other creatures, including your opponent’s Nissa’d land.

There are a few factors that are working against Sarkhan. One roadblock will be the glut at four and five in red and green. With so many options, it’s unlikely that people will be in the market for four Sarkhans. Off the top of my head you’ve got Polukranos, Xenagos, Nissa, and Stormbreath Dragon. I’m sure there are more that will be viable options as well. With so many cards all filling similar roles, most decks will want to vary their choices instead of going all-in on one or two. As for more casual formats I don’t’ see Sarkhan causing much of a stir. He’s bad in EDH, and while dragons tend to be quite popular, he doesn’t actually have “dragon” written on his typeline. The demand here should be mostly limited to Standard with perhaps some spilling over into Cube.

Overall I anticipate Sarkhan seeing moderate to heavy amounts of play. Assuming that some form of RG deck is in the top five of the format, and each one has two to three copies of Sarkhan, he should hang around north of $15 for awhile. While he is unlikely to be as pervasive as Elspeth, he should do well for himself. When Elspeth released along with Theros she was over $30. By the time January rolled around she was under $20. Even now she is only barely over $20. When Elspeth has trouble maintaining a price tag close to $25, it’s unlikely any could manage better.

Green

Bulk:
Meandering Towershell
Trail of Mystery

 

Hardened Scales
1 Month: Bulk – $1
Fate Reforged: Bulk

Ordinarily this would be unquestionable bulk but for two items. First, it’s aggressively costed. At any other mana cost I want nothing to do with this, but one is exactly where a card of this sort needs to be to have shot. The second is James’ entire article on the topic. While I’m not as much on board with the card as he is, I do see room for potential. This may pull a Parallel Lives while still in Standard, climbing to $2-$4, although Bayes tells us it’s unlikely. Rather it seems like it may be good to snag in as a throw-in once it hits real bulk because not only will it have the casual token demand at some point, it could also end up becoming part of some tier two strategies.

 

Hooded Hydra
1 Month: $2-$3
Fate Reforged: $1-$3

This is another one of those cards that I would have believed you if you told me it was rare. The fair cost on this card is unappealing, especially with Genesis Hydra and Hornet Queen running around. You can really only put this in your deck if your plan is to be unmorphing it. The cost to play it as a morph then flip it is a total of eight spread over two turns. That’s rather expensive. You end up getting paid on the back end when this finally dies with five 1/1s, but how much do we care? It’s obviously excellent insurance against End Hostilities. Beyond that I’m not sure how exciting this is in a color that also has Nissa at five.

Wizards keeps throwing these hydras at us and they have a real poor track record going so far. Polukranos is good, and Genesis Hydra is nifty, but take a look back at the other eight hydras currently in Standard and see how many others you remember. Mistcutter maybe? Here’s hoping they change “green’s creature.”

 

Rattleclaw Mystic
1 Month: $2-$4
Fate Reforged: $3-$7

As the Buy-a-Box promo for Khans, Rattleclaw deserves extra scrutiny. We’ve seen time and time again that BaB promos have a strong tendency to be Standard staples.

When Sylvan Caryatid was spoiled I was a bit bearish on it because it cost two mana and I like my dorks to cost one. I ended up coming around on Caryatid once it was clear that the 0/3 hexproof body was so powerful. Your opponent couldn’t kill him and he blocked 2-power creatures reliably.

Rattleclaw is two mana as well, but instead of dodging removal and blocking he dies to everything and can’t block a thing. The phrase “always bolt the bird” remains just as relevant today as it was some twenty years ago when it was coined, meaning that savvy opponents are not going to let this live if they have a choice.

What makes Rattleclaw unique is the morph ability. Playing Rattleclaw face-down on T3 means that on T4 you ramp to six mana. (Unmorph for 2 adding RUG with two lands left open, tap Rattleclaw for one.) This sets up a plethora of plays. You could run out double Savage Knuckleblade, Temur Ascendancy + Knuckleblade, a Scuttling Doom Engine, Sagu Mauler, the RUG Khan, or one of any multiple planeswalkers available to you. With Elvish Mystic on T1 this is all sped up a turn, which means six mana on T3. I think the last time we had six mana on T3 was Lotus Cobra, which Bant Mythic put to good use by attacking with a trampling 12/11 annihilator 2.

As a normal mana dork Rattleclaw is weak. With the shenanigans the morph ability promises, his outlook becomes much more promising. I anticipate we’ll see an immediate drop off following the release of the set. The price shouldn’t drop too low, and I’d expect growth by the time we hit Fate Reforged. For comparison, Sylvan Caryatid hung around the $5-$6 range until mid-to-late summer this year when it spiked to $10. It’s quite possible Rattleclaw follows a similar trajectory.

 

See the Unwritten
1 Month: $2-3
Fate Reforged: Bulk Mythic

In every format other than Standard Summoning Trap is preferable. As for Standard, there’s currently nothing in the format I really care about cheating into play at sorcery speed. Maybe if the Eldrazi show up later in the block this spikes, but unless that happens this is a bulk mythic.

Multicolor

Bulk:
Abzan Ascendancy
Ankle Shanker
Avalanche Tusker
Deflecting Blast
Duneblast
Crackling Doom
Flying Crane Technique
Ivorytusk Fortress (Intro Deck)
Jeskai Ascendancy
Kheru Lich Lord
Mardu Ascendancy
Mindswipe
Rakshasa Vizier
Sage of the Inward Eye
Temur Ascendancy
Trap Essence
Villainous Wealth

 

Anafenza, the Foremost
1 Month: $3-$5
Fate Reforged: $2-$4

We’ve got a three mana 4/4 in GW leaving the format right now which provides us a good idea of how much play Anafenza can manage. Loxodon Smiter got around in Standard for sure, although only being two colors instead of three is a huge boon. His counter clause is overall weaker than Anafenza’s two special abilities though. Her first ability will be decent, but won’t come up until at least turn five. If you cast her on turn three she won’t be able to put the counter on the creature you play turn four. That means you get your first +1/+1 counter a whole two turns later, assuming you even attack with your four-drop.

The more appealing text on here is the Rest in Peace, I believe. Keeping cards out of opponent’s graveyards is one of those things that doesn’t feel like it matters that much but surprises you with its utility in many situations. This is especially noticeable in Modern, when you realize just how much damage Leyline of the Void or Rest in Peace do to so many different opponents.

My concern with Anafenza is that CDE casting cost. Not only is she going to be tough to get down on turn three, it means only exactly decks playing those colors will want in. Compare that to a card like Loxodon Smiter which can be played in GW, Naya, or Bant.

Anafenza is a reasonably strong card that could see mild to moderate Standard play, and even possibly some Modern play alongside Doran. Unless she makes a big impact in that format though, I expect her price to remain fairly low. With Sarkhan and Sorin running around alongside all those fetches the other mythics are going to have a lot of work to do to keep their prices up.

 

Butcher of the Horde
1 Month: $3-$7
Fate Reforged: ???

Butcher of the Horde is looking to be the breakout card in the set. When I first saw it in the spoiler I shrugged my shoulders and kept scrolling. Apparently I was alone in this. Both Sam Black and BBD have spoken about how good the card seems to be in Standard. If it was just Sam Black I may not care too much since he’ll play anything with the word ‘sacrifice’ on it, but two players speaking about it’s strength is not something to handwave away. While I’m personally not wild about the card, I’ll respect the opinion of those that know better than me.

Apparently Butcher can and probably will be a real thing in Standard. His immediately floor should be $2 or $3 since so many people think he’s the real deal, and his ceiling will be in the $6-$8 range. It will be tough for him to pull a full-fledged Boros Reckoner and break $20 because of the fetches. He’s going to have to see a lot of play to even break $10; enough that you should see it coming before it happens.

In the short term I wouldn’t hesitate to pick up a set if it looks like a card you’d want to play. The worst case scenario is you lose two or three bucks a copy, but you’re also protecting against it doubling within two to three weeks. Watch tournament results, listen to what the good players have to say about him, and remember that we shouldn’t see him go full-on Reckoner but that double digits isn’t out of the question.

 

Mantis Rider
1 Month: Bulk – $2
Fate Reforged: Bulk – $2

I almost put this in the bulk section but it’s just slightly better than that. I really doubt that Mantis Rider can get there, but stranger things have happened I guess. Mantis Rider is pretty strictly a Standard card. I doubt anyone in Modern needs it, and even if they do the demand won’t be great enough to push the price much. I’m 98% this is a bulk card.

 

Narset, Enlightened Master
1 Month: $3-$5
Fate Reforged: $2-$4

Supposedly Narset had her cost bumped up from five to six in development because she was too good at five. I believe it. First strike is a great combat ability that makes blocking much more miserable than it would be otherwise. Hexproof has proven time and time again to be miserable to put up with. It forces interaction with the creature to occur on the battlefield, where her FS will shine. Her triggered ability is patently absurd. It has the potential to buy you up to four (!) free spells. We know most of the time that won’t happen, and that on average you’ll flip a little less than two lands each time. The spells also have to be non-creatures, but that seems easy to mitigate. Flipping Divinations, Banishing Lights, Lightning Strikes, or Planeswalkers for free can pay you for casting Narset even if you only get to attack once. Can you imagine flipping an Elspeth with Narset? Hooo boy.

Even though her triggered ability means business, there’s still some serious downsides. Not casting lands or creatures means you can’t just go hog wild with her. She’s on the slightly more expensive side of things, and is vulnerable to any number of sweepers. She’s also a CDE spell, meaning there won’t be many decks that can take advantage of her. There will be demand for Narset, but it won’t be intense. That demand should keep her slightly above bulk mythic, but not much higher. As a long term spec I think she’s got legs, because EDH and casual players will be a big fan. In the meantime though, I wouldn’t mind shipping her if you don’t plan on playing with her.

 

Rakshasa Deathdealer
1 Month: Bulk – $1
Fate Reforged: Bulk – $2

While I pegged Butcher of the Horde as the breakout card of the set, Rakshasa Deathdealer may be the sleeper of the set.

Those of you that were playing several years ago may remember a little zombie leech that was integral to the success of Standard Jund: Putrid Leech. The ability of that card to come down on turn two and start threatening four damage a turn was instrumental in Jund applying heavy pressure with nearly every permanent. Deathdealer is going to play a similar role, although with a slightly different feature set. One of the things that made Leech so powerful was that pumping it didn’t require mana. On turn two you could pay the two life to hit for four and still cast a Sprouting Thrinax. Deathdealer won’t give you quite the same option but the game will be similar. A common play with Deathdealer will be attacking into a Sylvan Caryatid. If they choose to block you can trade two mana to kill their Caryatid in a 0-for-1. If they don’t block, you simply skip paying the two and proceed to cast your spells on curve. Later in the game Deathdealer can remain a threatening attacker or blocker, play defense against giant Polukranosi, or an act as a wrath deterrent. That’s a lot of options for a two-drop that can hit for four on turn three.

I’d be more excited to buy into Deathdealer if this wasn’t the fall set of what will assuredly be the most widely-opened set in history. If he hits it big and becomes a staple in a tier one BG list I don’t think $3-$6 or more is out of the question, but it would have to be a solid tier one list akin to Mono-Black or Mono-Blue. If he only sees mild play he won’t be able to climb out of bulk status. Rakshasa Deathdealer has the chops to make it big, and while the format won’t necessarily shake out in such a way that he’s able to shine, it would be wise to pay close attention.

 

Sagu Mauler
1 Month: Bulk – $2
Fate Reforged: Bulk – $5

These are wide margins but bear with me a moment. Let’s talk about what Sagu Mauler does well. He’s got trample, which is one of the best combat keywords. He’s got hexproof, the most frustrating and possibly broken keyword since storm. He’s got morph, which means you get to cheat on his mana cost and sneak him into play underneath counterspells. (Morph is especially savage here, since you can blow people out if they try to kill him. Unmorph in response to Hero’s Downfall and it fizzles.) Mauler has a giant body, exactly the combat ability you want on a 6/6, and total immunity to removal. There’s definitely a lot of competition at the six-drop slot in the upcoming Standard but Mauler has a threatening body that demands the opponent interact with it on the board.

Is Sagu Mauler going to break out and become a defining card of the format? Unlikely. Things would have to shake very specifically for him to be a legitimate contender. Chances are best that he’ll hit bulk and stay there. However there is a possibility, admittedly rather slim, that he becomes a major component of Standard and his price reflects that. I wouldn’t expect him to break out, but I’ll be keeping an eye on him either way.

 

Savage Knuckleblade
1 Month: $3-$6
Fate Reforged: $1-$4

When Ravnica came out I was definitively Simic. When Khans was released, there was no question I was looking forward to the Temur cards. RUG is my probably my most-played color combination of constructed decks. I played RUG in Standard with Kiora and Xenagos for months and I play it in Modern with Scapeshift. I like the colors and it’s awesome that RUG is getting a card everyone thinks is great.

That said, I’m not entirely convinced Knuckleblade can cut it. Perhaps it’s because I’ve been burned so many times before. When was the last time a really playable Simic card was printed? Kiora is solid I guess. The guild was one of the worst in Ravnica block. Before that, the last time I remember UG being playable was the turboland deck back in Zendikar Standard, and even that was short-lived. I’m worried that if I get my hopes up for Knuckleblade and RUG to actually be a tier one strategy in Standard they’re just going to get dashed once more. After all, RUG is cut from playing the two best cards in the format; Thoughtseize and Elspeth. How good can it really be?

Knuckleblade is clearly pushed, and the power level is there. The question is whether there will be enough support in the format for the colors. The good news for Knuckleblade is that Courser and Caryatid are in the same wedge, and those are both going to be bonkers. The bad news is that you can go play Abzan and still get Caryatid and Courser, as well as all the best black and white spells. Or even just Sultai, where you trade the damage of red in for the firm removal and hand disruption of black. The silver lining here is that red happens to contain Goblin Rabblemaster, currently one of the top ten creatures in the format. It’s been a long, long time since a RUG deck played the red for a creature, but hey maybe it’s finally time.

I can be optimistic about Sagu Mauler because it’s so likely to be bulk. It’s a fun looking card and if it hits it big then great. With nobody else rooting for him I get to feel like I’m championing the underdog. I’m not deluding myself about his chances though. He’ll probably be trash. Knuckleblade is much more on the map right now, with SCG sold out at $6 and eBay sets finishing at about $4 a copy. People will try him for awhile, and the power level is present, so his price shouldn’t tank too hard too fast. My guess is that Knuckleblade, and RUG in general are just not going to have enough raw power to be competitive. If that happens Knuckleblade will be doomed to bulk, a powerful card a victim of his colors.

It’s entirely possible RUG ends up being excellent and Savage Knuckblade is at the center of the deck. In that situation he’s $4-$10+, depending on just how excellent he and the deck are. A more realist approach is that it’s been forever since RUG has been good in Standard and that history repeats itself. In that eventuality, Knuckleblade hits bulk – $2.

 

Sidsi, Brood Tyrant
1 Month: $3-$6
Fate Reforged: $3 or $10

BUG was possibly the best deck in Theros block so we know that Sidisi is coming in with a strong precedent. When he enters the battlefield you’re getting a creature more often than not, and if Sidisi is in your deck you’ll be playing cards that set up additional triggers. Sultai Ascendancy, a card already possibly playable, gives you another trigger. Cards like Satyr Wayfinder and Pharika help a good bit too. Maybe there’s a deck with Wayfinder, Caryatid, Courser, Ascendancy, Eidolon of Blossoms, and Sidisi? Nyx Weaver even? I don’t know but it sure sounds fun.

Sidisi is a solid card that will have cross-format appeal. This alone will keep the price in the $3-$4 range for awhile. If he doesn’t materialize in Standard I wouldn’t expect his price to move much from there. However if it turns out some sort of BUG mill deck is real he’ll jump to $10+. In that situation Pharikas will also be a great buy. See how things shake out and be ready to pounce of Sidsi comes out strong.

 

Siege Rhino
1 Month: $2-$4
Fate Reforged: $3-$6+

Siege Rhino is seriously strong. Four mana for a 4/5 is a reasonable rate to begin with. Trample is exactly what you want on fat creatures and that ETB trigger is fantastic. You immediately dome your opponent and pad your life total while putting a sizeable threat on the board that can attack through opposing Coursers. He even survives combat with Knuckleblade when your opponent is tapped down. The biggest challenge to Rhino that I can see from here is Polukranos. Polukranos will be cheaper to cast and is slightly bigger. Anyone that’s played with him is aware that it’s tough to attack through sometimes because of chump blocks, so maybe the trample and trigger push Rhino into the lead.

I don’t see Rhino cratering too hard unless it turns out Abzan is just junk (heh) in the new format. That seems unlikely to pass given it’s in the same colors as Courser, Thoughtseize and Elspeth. Rhino is on the short list to be one of the most expensive rares in the set. If early lists come out with three or four copies don’t hesitate to at least pick up your own playset. It will be tough to make actual cash flipping these since the preorder price is already $4+, but you can always trade for them aggressively if he’s looking to be a real contender.

 

Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1 Month: $9-$14
Fate Reforged: $11-$16

This may be the first time in a long while that a Planeswalker actually rises from his preorder price. SCG has copies in stock at $15 and eBay sets are finishing for about $10-$11 a card. This is surprising to me because Sorin is so solid.

First things first, he’s a four-drop four-loyalty Planeswalker. Second, he’s in both black and white, two colors with some of the strongest cards in the format. Third, he is capable of putting a token down that can not only chump on the ground but also in the air, protecting him from any hasty airborne threats. If you’re worried that his protection mode is a minus instead of a plus, remember that JtMS lost a loyalty when he bounced creatures. Fourth, Sorin’s +1 is going to make attacking into Sorin a nightmare for your opponent if you have any creatures in play at all. It also makes winning races against him a impossible. Fifth, that emblem is fairly easy to obtain and has the potential to completely shut some opponents out of the game. It isn’t as strong as other emblems are but you sure can get to ultimate loyalty quickly.

I never spent much time casting Senor de Innistrad, but I have a good bit of experience playing against him. I was almost always more concerned with the +1/+0 emblem he created rather than the piddly token he was putting into play. In this situation the roles are reversed. Sorin is buffing your whole team with a plus ability every turn, and only dropping the token into play when you’re short on bodies.

Sorin has a competitive mana cost, three strong abilities, and is in two great colors. Senor de Innistrad was quite popular and was reasonably pricey until the duel deck was announced. Solemn Visitor may creep down a bit from his current price, but I don’t think we see him much below $9 or $10. If he does get that low, trade aggressively. He’s good enough to warrant $15-$20 if he sees any real play in the format.

 

Sultai Ascendancy
1 Month: Bulk – $1
Fate Reforged: Bulk – $3

I’m pretty confident all of the Ascendancies are bulk for quite some time, even if they’re playable. Still, Sultai is looking to be the best of the bunch and I’d be remiss not to mention it. It probably joins its brethren in the sub-$1.50 category, but it seems the most likely to reach a few bucks. It’s no Sylvan Library but what is? Thassa has shown us the power of repeated upkeep card selection, and the fact that it works so well with Sidsi certainly doesn’t hurt.

 

Surrak Dragonclaw
1 Month: $3-$6
Fate Reforged: Bulk Mythic

I did a double take when I looked up his preorder price. $15 on SCG and $9+ on eBay? Are you all reading a different card than I am?

He’s a five-mana 6/6. That’s fine I guess. Flash is good, sure. It let’s you leave up Knuckleblade mana or Temur Charm and flash him down if you don’t need them. The fact that he can’t be countered is wildly situational at best. Unless Temur Charm becomes a 4-of format staple I don’t think the uncounterable clause will matter much. Same with making your other guys uncounterable. Giving the rest of your team trample is certainly solid, as Nylea has shown, but without having it himself it can be totally useless in a lot of board states.

Surrak will be a reasonable threat against control decks for sure. Not only does he blank all their counterspells but he allows your other threats to trample over Elspeth tokens. Unfortunately, I don’t see him having much of a role outside of this. Other formats won’t really want him. Maybe some Riku decks will run him since more casual-oriented players are so drawn to “can’t be countered.”

Overall demand here should be low across the board. The “can’t be countered” clause tends to drive the price of pre-order cards to absurd highs (Savage Summoning was preordering at $6), but I fully expect a crash here over the next month or two. Get out and stay out.

 

Utter End
1 Month: $1-$3
Fate Reforged: $1-$4

While I’m not wild about this card being more than two or three bucks, it would be shortsighted of me to forget what happened with Hero’s Downfall. Everything went right in the case of Downfall – black was the best color in the format, it was relatively cheap, there were no enchantments or artifacts it really needed to kill – so of course the price was high. Utter end is more expensive and harder to cast, although it hits much harder than Downfall does. The biggest strike against End is that it’s four mana instead of three. When it comes to staple removal you really want to cast it as fast as possible. Each extra mana makes it much tougher to run as a full playset instead of as a one or two-of.

Given that it’s in two colors instead of one it seems much tougher for Utter End to climb towards double digits the way Downfall did. Still, there’s a lot of room between $1 and $10. I anticipate it hanging out on the lower end of things, but I could see it climbing towards $4-$5 if the format is slow enough to allow four mana removal spells.

 

Zurgo Helmsmasher
1 Month: $2-$3
Fate Reforged: Mythic Bulk

Zurgo is one of the two headlining cards of the upcoming Speed vs Cunning product, just as Polukranos was last year. Polukranos would be $15 today if not for that duel deck because he’s so playable. Zurgo…is less playable.

Zurgo of course absolutely has a dangerous front end, and I’m sure I’ll be taking seven damage on turn five multiple times in the future because I don’t want to block with anything I have in play. If you do decide to block to save yourself one-third of your life, Zurgo grows.

My issue with Zurgo is that he’s so easy to chump. Toss a spare Elvish Mystic or Caryatid or Xenagos satyr in front of him to buy yourself the turn or two you need to assemble a reasonable answer. Even if you chump him on turn five and turn him into an 8/3, there are still a plethora of effects that can kill him on the next turn. Lightning Strike picks off an 8/3 Zurgo. Polukranos and seven mana can eat an 8/3. If you decide to take the damage, a lowly Magma Spray will get him. While Zurgo applies a lot of pressure unanswered, he happens to be very answerable.

A CDE mana cost will hurt his value in competitive formats. He’s not particularly noteworthy in EDH. Any demand he has will be squelched by the Duel Deck printing. I think Zurgo is headed right for bulk mythic.

Artifact

Bulk:
Dragon Throne of Tarkir
Ghostfire Blade

 

Altar of the Brood
1 Month: Bulk – $1
Fate Reforged: Bulk – $2

This is a sneaky little artifact here. It triggers for any permanent, which means it includes lands. Fetchlands even get to trigger it twice. The mana cost is as pushed as you can get, which is exactly what you need on a card like this. Only milling one is sort of a bummer. If it milled two, or allowed you to target yourself, it would be even more exciting.

We know the casual crowd loves mill to an extent that is difficult to understand, so there’s already going to be a base of people looking to snatch this up. What really excites me is the possibility that it breaks out in Legacy or Modern to create a combo. Even if it’s part of a tier two combo deck in Modern out of the gate we won’t see the price rise too much because there will be too many in rotation, but down the road this will have real potential to jump from bulk to $5. It’s a long term play – two years at least – but there’s the chance someone could make a killing on these if they have hundreds (or thousands) of copies.

 

Ugin’s Nexus
1 Month: Mythic Bulk
Fate Reforged: Mythic Bulk

This card is exciting mostly because it references Ugin. Are we getting another colorless Planeswalker this block? Ghostfire Blade certainly sets up Ugin bringing a horde of colorless creatures with him.

Financially this card is a bulk mythic. Very clearly designed for the EDH crowd, the foils should hold value pretty well. There may be a day down the road where someone figures out how to break this, or the EDH demand ends up pushing it close to double digits, but that is at least a year or two away.

Land

The Fetchlands
1 Month: $10-$15
Fate Reforged: $8-$13

I wrote an entire article about these! Go look!

 

RTR Block & M14: What I’m Targeting for Rotation (Pt 1 of 2)

By: Jared Yost

With rotation upon us, everyone is expecting the newest tech from Khans to totally alter the Standard landscape. With all the wedge combinations, in addition to the various two color decks that should also see play, there will be plenty of opportunity for brewing and creating amazing new decks.

I see rotation in a different light. In order to get the best deals on Magic cards that I can, I’ve come to understand that the block rotation is the best time of year to get in on cards that were previously twice as expensive or more. However, you shouldn’t be too hasty. The best time to start looking for these deals is about two to three months after the latest set has been released in order for the prices from the old rotating sets to really dive. At this point, a good amount of Standard only players will have liquidated most of their holdings. Eventually the rest will follow and the market will have a large amount of staples from the previous Standard set that are now only eternal legal.

In the past, I’ve done these set reviews for Innistrad block when it rotated from Standard. See here and here. I will identify cards I’m looking at and then indicate which formats of Magic I believe their future price will be driven by. The structure will be as follows:

Sets

  • Return to Ravnica
  • Gatecrash
  • Dragon’s Maze
  • M14

Order of Rarity for Sets

  • Mythic
  • Rare
  • Uncommon (if applicable)
  • Common (if applicable)

 

Foil vs Nonfoil – Mentioned per card if applicable. I will only mention foil if the card has ubiquitous Commander or Eternal appeal.

Today I will start with Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash, then next week I will cover Dragon’s Maze and M14.

Return to Ravnica

MYTHIC


Sphinx’s Revelation

FORMAT – Modern, Commander

Sphinx’s Revelation is currently the most expensive mythic from Return to Ravnica averaging $8 retail and a TCG Low of about $6.50. While the card is pretty decent in Commander I think the future of Sphinx’s Rev lies in its use for Modern. It is usually played as one or two copies in the current meta’s UWx lists that are either control or combo control based.

Does this eternal demand mean that Sphinx’s Rev will always be around $8 moving forward? I think not. There is still room to drop since the main demand for the card comes from Standard. Outside of UWx lists Sphinx’s Rev does not see any other eternal demand. While I don’t think we’ll see this mythic dropping to $3 or less I do believe there is plenty of room to drop and I think it will land somewhere between $4 and $6. Definitely pick up a few if you play Modern or for an EDH deck though don’t go too deep on this one. The demand isn’t quite there yet and this card is generic enough that it could see a reprint in a supplemental product.

 

Worldspine Wurm

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Believe it or not, this mythic is up there among the top 5 most expensive mythics from RTR at about $3 retail and a TCGLow of $2. This demand is all is casual here. It is definitely nice in green Commander decks and casuals are driving the price towards a stable $2.50.

I think now is the time to buy in on these for future growth. Since the demand is casual driven, I could see it rising in price over time similar to Ghostly Prison or other cards that don’t really see eternal play but still are popular with the casual crowd. I don’t think the Wurm will ever go below $2.

 

 

Vraska the Unseen & Jace, Architect of Thought

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Planeswalkers are generally good pickups as long as they aren’t Tibalt. Jace and Vraska could see eternal play yet I don’t think they’re quite powerful enough for Modern or other eternal formats. Planeswalkers always sell and trade well so if you can pick either of these up for $3 or less in trade I would do it. Even though they have a duel deck printing I still think in the future casual players will want them for collections.

 

Trostani, Selesnya’s Voice

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

I like foils of Trostani for future gains. They are currently only around $8 retail and I think that is a good pickup price for her. Players will want to use her as a general for Commander decks in the future so I think the foil versions hold the most potential here.

You can pick up nonfoils of Trostani for less than $1 in some places and that could be good for a year or two down the road. I wouldn’t try to pick up nonfoils though as the profit margins are slim and there is a chance for a reprint in the coming years.

 

Angel of Serenity

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Casuals love their angels and the foil price of this card reflects that demand. The foil multiplier for Angel of Serenity is 0.149 – that is a nonfoil is worth about 15% of the price of a foil. That gap is huge! I can only see it increasing in the coming years due to angel collectors and the demand from Commander (Kaalia players, I’m thinking of you) so picking up foils after rotation will ensure you get her at a good price.

RARE

 

Abrupt Decay & Deathrite Shaman

FORMAT – Legacy

The first rares on the list are Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman, two of Legacy’s biggest stars since their debut. Abrupt Decay is the most expensive card from Return to Ravnica at $13 retail, and Deathrite Shaman is #5 at $9.40 retail. Deathrite has dropped from his average of $12-$15 before his Modern ban to below $10 now. I think that rotation is a great time to pick up more Deathrite copies in anticipation of future Legacy play. I could easily see him going back to $12-$15 in a year without a reprint. He will trade easily to both hardcore Legacy players and casual players, and will always be wanted on buylists.

Abrupt Decay I believe has peaked for a while. I don’t think the profit margins a year from now are worth it for non-foil copies at $13. I don’t think it could ever reach $25+ in only a year especially since it could reprinted in the upcoming Modern Masters two or another product.

Foils of both are a decent investment, even now at $90 & $75 respectively. The foil copies only stand to gain in the future since both are played quite extensively in Legacy and players in that format love to foil out there decks.

 

Shocklands (All 10 of Them)

FORMAT – Modern, Commander

Next of course are the Shocklands from RTR & GTC.

Advice for those who haven’t gotten their shocklands yet:

Personally I would focus on picking up the blue lands (Steam Vents, Hallowed Fountain, Watery Grave, and Breeding Pool) however you can’t go wrong diversifying and picking up whatever shocks you can get your hands on. They will be played in Modern extensively, and with the addition of the Onslaught fetchlands being added to Modern the demand for these lands will only continue to go up. I predict that decks we haven’t seen before will start to surface due to the allied fetchlands being added to the card pool and that these decks will be more focused on two color strategies since additional mana fixing options have now opened up. Due to this, even the non-blue lands could see play if a new two color archetype emerges in Modern.

Advice for those looking at these as real estate for future value:

Don’t expect extreme gains from shocklands because Wizards did their due diligence and printed an abundance of these things. At this point, I would only pick up lands that you need for decks you might play. Don’t pick up these lands expecting to make a killing off them, because these aren’t spiking up in price for quite some time. They should be pretty stable, with small gains here and there, in the foreseeable future.

Foils of shocklands are pricy but worth it. These should gain more in a shorter amount of time since Modern players will be looking to start foiling out decks eventually. Once RTR & GTC are out of print foil lands will be even harder to come by. Pick these up as you can and you won’t be disappointed in the future.

 

Chromatic Lantern

FORMAT – Commander

Both foils and nonfoils alike of Chromatic Lantern will be good targets. This artifact quickly became one of the most ubiquitous cards in Commander decks since it allows three color Commander decks to have amazing mana fixing in addition to being a mana rock for any color. Pick up as many of these as you can, especially foils, because they are sure to go up.

 

Cyclonic Rift

FORMAT – Commander

Any deck that plays blue will play Cyclonic Rift because it is so backbreaking in Commander if you are on the receiving end of one. Like Chromatic Lantern, foils will be an especially nice acquisition for the future.

 

Pack Rat

FORMAT – Modern, Casual

I’ve seen some grindy Modern lists out there floating around that include Pack Rat as a way to get through all the removal that seems to exist in the format. Once RTR rotates, I think Pack Rat is going to take a huge dive. If it goes below $2 I would try to pick up some copies for Modern. You never know if it will become the feature card in a breakout deck.

Also, rats are a creature type that some casual players have a fascination with. I’m not sure why, but it couldn’t hurt to pick up some copies to satiate that demand since Pack Rat is sure to be an include in the Relentless Rats deck.

 

Rest in Peace

FORMAT – Modern, Legacy

One of the best graveyard hate cards printed, Rest in Peace is extremely good at shutting down graveyard based strategies. I really like foils here as Rest in Peace is played a ton in Legacy and transition well into Modern if more graveyard themed decks start popping up.

 

Collective Blessing

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

I really like this card as a target for casual players. It is pretty much at bulk rare status, so if you can get them as throw ins for trades I think that would be a good opportunity. This feels like the set’s Parallel Lives so I expect this card will eventually be in the $2-$3 range some time after RTR is out of print.

UNCOMMONS

 

 

Golgari Charm & Izzet Charm

FORMAT – Modern, Legacy

I think that Golgari Charm and Izzet Charm are the best charms from RTR for eternal formats. Izzet Charm is played in several Modern decks and Golgari Charm is a great sideboard card in Soltai (BUG) decks to take care of True-Name Nemesis in addition to providing other great utility. I would target foils of Golgari Charm over Izzet Charm, since Izzet Charm had an FNM promo foil which will stabilize the price of the pack foil Izzet Charm.

Gatecrash

MYTHIC

 

Domri Rade

FORMAT – Modern, Casual

Domri might have potential for Modern play yet I think the majority of his value will come from casual players that like to collect planeswalkers. I think nonfoil Domri has some room to drop after rotation. If he ever goes below $7 that will be the time to pick him up. Foils at $30 are pricy but a good pickup for the long term.

He will always trade / sell well due to being a planeswalker, so you can’t go wrong picking up some Domri’s after rotation.

 

Aurelia, the Warleader

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Similar to Angel of Serenity, Aurelia will be another angel that players gravitate towards for Kaalia and Aurelia Commander decks. She will always have casual appeal for Commander players. Foils will be good for future gains however I also think nonfoils have room to grow until a reprint.

 

 

Master Biomancer & Prime Speaker Zegana

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Both Simic mythics are powerful from Gatecrash and I think both will be great pickups upon rotation.

Cards that provide lord effects (that is, add +1/+1 counters to creatures or provide a +1/+1 bump) usually do well financially as casual players gravitate towards these types of effects. Master Biomancer, while not a normal lord, provides a different yet similar effect. I think the mythic rare status will enable it to do well in the future.

Prime Speaker Zegana is an awesome commander and I think that alone will allow her to maintain value because she is so powerful in the Commander format. I would target foils here though nonfoils could also do well over time.

 

 

Gideon, Champion of Justice & Hellkite Tyrant

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Gideon and Hellkite Tyrant are awesome for casual, Commander environments. Gideon like all planeswalkers should trade / sell well while foils of Hellkite Tyrant will gain the most in the future.

 

 

Obzedat, Ghost Council & Lazav, Dimir Mastermind

FORMAT – Commander

Pick up foils of these guys for Commander since they make great generals and are popular in in the format.

 

Enter the Infinite

FORMAT – Legacy, Commander

Omni-Show exists in Legacy and uses Enter the Infinite to combo off. It has put up results from time to time but is currently a pet deck rather than an established archetype. Still, for under $1 I think Enter the Infinite is a good pickup. Especially since it also has Commander appeal for those of us that like to build instant win combo decks in the format.

RARE

 

Shocklands (All 10 of Them)

FORMAT – Modern, Commander

I’ve talked about these previously in this article, refer to the RTR shocklands for more specifics.

 

  

Boros Reckoner, Mind Grind & Consuming Aberration

FORMAT – Casual

I believe these three cards are the best casual rares from the set. All three represent cool cards that casual players salivate over. I don’t think they can lose much value and will only gain in the future.

 

  

Thespian’s Stage, Merciless Eviction, & Crypt Ghast

FORMAT – Commander

Outside of the Primordials, these three cards I believe represent the undervalued Commander rares from the set. All three are really awesome in Commander and their value will derive from that. They will all be good pickups for the future.

 

Primordials (all the non-banned ones)

FORMAT – Commander

Speaking of Primordials, all the Primordials (barring Sylvan due the Commander ban) will be good pickups for Commander. If they are reprinted in the latest C14 decks, the price will stabilize for a time. However, these things can get quite degenerate in Commander if left unchecked. I think even if they are reprinted they can’t get much cheaper than they are now which is around $0.30 retail. Stock up on these and a few years down the road trade them away once they reach $2 or more.

UNCOMMON

 

Boros Charm

FORMAT – Modern, Casual

Clearly the best charm from Gatecrash, Boros Charm is starting to make waves in Modern on the back of burn decks that have become popular in the format over the last few months (with a burn deck even taking down GP Kobe). In addition to tournament play, Boros Charm is an amazingly popular casual card and will maintain a ton of value from that crowd. Foils and non-foils are both good targets.

 

Gift of Orzhova

FORMAT – Casual

Gift of Orzhova is a pretty bad card in all constructed environments. Even in Commander and casual formats it’s not that good. Why do I mention it? Foils are currently $5 retail for this card while normal copies are only going for bulk. There is demand for this card’s foil but not for the normal reasons.

The reason for demand is that everyone is crazy about the artwork for the card. Players aren’t getting foils for the playability, yet rather for the art which is timeless. I don’t think foils of this are going down since it clearly doesn’t see play anywhere and is still $5. Who knows, maybe we’ll start having a larger portion of the community start collecting cards for artwork. All I know is that this card’s art in particular seemed to strike a chord with Magic players and that foils are in demand. If you want one, get it upon rotation.

Summary

There are plenty of cards that should trend upwards in price after rotation from Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash once they hit their bottoms. Depending on where your collection is lacking, rotation is the perfect time to pick up any missing pieces for your collection, decks, or cubes. You can even pick up some cards in hopes of trading or buylisting them in the future once they trend upwards from their bottom. Check in again next week for my Dragon’s Maze and M14 rotation picks.

Weekend Update for 9/13/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Obstinate Baloth (M11)
From $1.68 to $1.88 (11.90%)

Obstinate Baloth has been recovering from its dip a few weeks ago.

It should never have gotten so low in the first place. It is a powerful sideboard card against Liliana of the Veil and other discard cards. It comes down as a solid 4/4 four four mana while buffering your life total against burn or helping a midrange deck recover from early aggression.

It shows up in Melira Pod, Abzan Midrange, Jund, Scapeshift and Temur Tempo decks among others. I believe it is rightfully returning to $2 but I do not see it growing too much further than that.

You can still purchase them for as little as $0.76 and sell them for $1.10. They also make excellent toss ins to even up deals.

9. Sylvan Caryatid (Theros)
From $9.49 to $10.64 (12.12%)

Sylvan Caryatid is going to be used in every single standard deck that runs green and any other combination of colors. It will help you fix your mana for wedges and accelerate into a turn three Polukranos or Xenagos, the Reveler.

It is playable in three out of five wedges and will be a workhorse in any attempt to make five colors work.

I am ready to declare it the most played creature in standard six weeks from now.

It was the Buy a Box promo for Theros  and a rare in a heavily opened set but I will not be surprised when these sustain $15 for the rest of their time in standard.

8. Nylea, God of the Hunt (Theros)
From $6.17 to $6.97 (12.67%)

Everyone is busy talking about wedges and new three color decks but some people are going to look at tried and true block strategies like Monogreen Devotion. There are a host of powerful creatures to help build devotion and she has been seen in two color builds like Gruul Devotion and Golgari Devotion as well.

She makes an easy splash and helps your big creatures get through for damage. Unfortunately she sits in the already crowded four mana spot on the curve.

She will certainly see $8 but I do not think she will quite see $9. The important thing is that she is getting attention so you can trade her away for maximum value and let others work out her role in the new standard.

7. Fabled Hero (Theros)
From $1.17 to $1.33 (13.68%)

Fabled Hero has proved potent in block Azorius Heroic and Naya Aggro strategies. You can throw powerful bestow creatures and auras on him and let him wreck your opponent.

Will he see play? I do not know. I do know that his foil can be purchased for as little as $1.49 which is almost the same as the regular copies. I would grab foils as a hedge with minimal investment. If he sees any play then I could see the foils hitting $10 without any problems.

If not you can still try get out without losing your shirt.

6. Nyx-Fleece Ram (Journey into Nyx)
From $1.75 to $2.08 (18.86%)

Nyx-Fleece Ram has had a tremendous impact for an innocuous creature. It helps create a life buffer and holds back even Goblin Rabblemaster (when did he become $10?!) and even the most Temur of 4/4s with ease.

It is currently being played in Orzhov Control, Esper Control and Boros Aggro.

Each of these decks was already interested in life gain. I believe he will have a role in the new standard but as an uncommon $2 is about the best it can hope for.

Banishing Light from the same set is $3 and that is an answer to Planeswalkers, gods, fatties, and a host of things the humble Ram can only gaze upon with dismay.

I would move them and get the $0.90 buylist or $2 trades for cards that look like draft droppings.

5. Thought Reflection (Shadowmoor)
From $0.99 to $1.18 (19.19%)

Thought Reflection feels like exactly the kind of overcosted binder bulk that sounds like a fun inclusion in a Commander deck.

The problem is that at seven mana it still does nothing on its own. Consecrated Sphinx just does so much more and costs less to cast.

Staff of Nin is better most of the time and is cheaper. It can be purchased for as little as $0.16 and sold for $0.37.

That said you can still buy Thought Reflection for as little as $0.49 and sell them for $0.53.

4. Mana Confluence (Journey into Nyx)
From $13.47 to $16.07 (19.30%)

Get used to Mana Confluence because you are going to be seeing a lot of them. Every midrange three color deck is going to want some number in their decklist. Many two color aggro lists could play them and enable a splash card in the sideboard.

There are even enough cards that provide incidental life gain like Nyx-Fleece Ram and Courser of Kruphix that negate the downside of Mana Confluence entirely.

Speaking of Courser of Kruphix you can still buy them for as little as $9.90 from some vendors and sell them for $11.21. This is despite ready availability from Clash packs.

Modern uses them in Ad Nauseam. Both Legacy and Vintage dredge decks run a play set.

Mana Confluence will be a seeing $20 soon. I would wait for that time and trade or sell them. I think that they will be at least $15 for the rest of their life in standard. In the long term this may be as cheap as they get until a reprint so if you want them for Legacy I would bite the bullet and get your play set now.

3. Soldier of the Pantheon (Theros)
From $2.32 to $2.85 (22.84%)

Soldier of the Pantheon looked like a hedge against powerful multicolor threats from Return to Ravnica. Now it is being considered again as an answer to powerful wedge cards.

It is already used in Selesnya Aggro and Brave Naya lists. If there is a white weenie build in Khans standard this will certainly be a headliner. It will also be in white control sideboards to hold back threats like Zurgo Helmsmasher indefinitely.

You can still pick them up for as cheap as $1.26 and sell them for as much as $1.70.

2. Keranos, God of Storms (Journey into Nyx)
From $13.54 to $18.04 (33.23%)

Is Keranos the God of Hype? Any number of authors have espoused him as a patron of card advantage. He is in decklists in every single format.

He can help you dig for spells, destroy creatures or is simply a clock for your opponent. In a world where players life totals are gouged by fetchlands, painlands and Mana Confluence a free Lightning Bolt or two can make a huge difference.

He has grown a lot from the $7 he was a month ago. If you got in at $8 when I told you then take your profit and be on your way. If you are a gambler you can wait just a little longer. He will still see $20 but I am hesitant to say he will get to $25. There is nothing wrong with getting out now. Corbin says you should leave the last 10% to the next guy.

1. Polukranos, World Eater (Theros)
From $7.67 to $10.64 (38.72%)

Standard Gruul Devotion, Monogreen devotion, Golgari Rock, Jund Monsters and Golgari Chord all run this monstrous hydra. It is a potent threat and can clear the board of annoying utility creatures like Soldiers of the Pantheon or Elvish Mystic.

He was in Theros and the Heroes vs Monsters duel deck. He is already being listed at $15 by some vendors.

I really like the foil copies that are only $12.70. They are not as diluted and have more room to grow if it becomes the role player we all think he will be.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Enemy Fetchlands (Zendikar)
From an average of $54.08 to $44.27 (-18.13%)

The Modern mana fixing monopoly of Zendikar fetchlands has come to an end.

Scarcity will do a lot for you but when there is a supply shock in cards that can fit your roles then that will take a toll on you.

People have already been speculating on whether these will be reprinted in Louie or Modern Masters 2. I almost think that the Onslaught fetchlands will make this a moot point. You no longer need to pay $300 to $400 for a playset of lands like you would have earlier this year. Here are the individual break downs.

Arid Mesa
From $43.18 to $36.48 (-15.52%)

This is used in modern Jeskai Control, Red Deck wins and Burn. Legacy uses it in Jeskai Miracles, Jeskai Delver, Burn and Imperial Painter.

Verdant Catacombs
From $45.16 to $38.14 (-15.54%)

Modern uses Catacombs in Jund and Golgari Rock. Legacy uses it in Elves, Shardless sultai, Sultai Delver and ANT.

Scalding Tarn
From $69.24 to $56.87 (-17.87%)

The mighty have fallen. Modern Twin Exarch and Izzet Delver use Tarns. Legacy uses them in Jeskai Miracles, Azorius Miracles, ANT, OmniTell, Jeskai Delver and Burn.

Misty Rainforest
From $70.24 to $57.03 (-18.81%)

Rainforests are used in modern Twin Exarch, Izzet Delver and legacy Shardless Sultai, Storm, OmniShow, Elves, and Stoneblade decks.

Marsh Flats
From $42.58 to $32.82 (-22.92%)

Modern uses it in Jund, Boros Midrange and Abzan. Legacy uses it in Shardless Sultai and Esper Stoneblade.

The bottom line is that all of them are still role players in major decks in eternal formats. I think the new prices of $30 to $50 are still respectable but with the new fetchlands commanding $15 to $20 each I could still see some room to drop a bit.

I told you to move them if you are not playing with them and that holds true now more than ever. Anyone who was sitting on them may start to cut their losses. That will increase the copies flocking to buylists and eBay. This will put further downward pressure on the price. I would say get out but even that advice is too little too late at this point.

4. Mutavault (Morningtide)
From $32.55 to $23.98 (-26.33%)

Mutavault is used in standard Monoblue Devotion, Monoblack Devotion, Red Deck wins and basically almost every other deck in the format.

In eternal formats it is used in modern and legacy Merfolk and Modern UB Faeries, Esper Delver and even Twin Exarch.

It will take a beating as copies are sold off at rotation but the roles are filled. Mutavault will continue to lose steam until it gets to around $15.

3. Reflecting Pool (Shadowmoor)
From $11.63 to $8.33 (-28.37%)

The Conspiracy reprint really killed this card. It is still used in modern Kiki Pod, Cruel Control and even Bloom Titan but usually only as a single copy. It is unfortunate that you need to have the mana already available to make this card shine. It is a popular inclusion in commander decks of all shapes and sizes.

You can still buy them for as little as $4.95 and sell them for $5.76.

2. Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
From $16.58 to $11.51 (-30.58%)

Standard control decks that include black will want this to help fix their colors. If you want to cast a host of 2/2 zombies at your opponent’s end step then this is the card that can help you get past the four black mana in the cost.

Modern uses it in Abzan, Gifts Control, 8rack and Dead Guy Ale. Legacy uses it in Loam, Tezzeret, ControlPox and Stoneblade.

You can still get them for $7.60 and sell them for up to $10.01.

1. Huntmaster of the Fells (Dark Ascension)
From $5.95 to $4.05 (-31.93%)

What a fine sale!

It is next to impossible to reprint and is used in modern Splinter Twin, Jund, Temur Tempo, Tarmo Twin and Kiki Pod. Legacy even uses it in Nic Fit. This is probably the cheapest you will ever see it and it has plenty of room to grow. I would trade for them aggressively.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY