Weekend Recap 4/12/14

April 11, 2014 2 Comments

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Exploration
$36.81 to $43.93 (19.3%)

Exploration leads to explosive starts in the Legacy Lands deck. The varied power and abilities of the lands it plays make it unexpectedly powerful.

It can take full advantage of Life from the Loam and Intuition to find exactly what it needs, dump it into its graveyard and play it.

It also has the combination of Dark Depths and Thespian’s Stage for a powerful 20/20 Indestructible Marit Lage token.

What the deck really needs are results.

It made Top 16 this weekend, but a few Top 8s would go a long way to justifying the large strides that Exploration has made in price recently.

9. Leonin Arbiter
$2.99 to $3.57 (19.4%)

It’s good to be the king! Or at least respected. Leonin Arbiter is one of only a couple of creatures in Modern GW Hatebears that use the full playset.

The other are Flickerwisp and Noble Hierarch. That should speak of its power.

It cripples Modern mana bases that rely upon Fetchlands to search out Shocklands. It slows down Birthing Pod.

I expect them to continue to climb to around $6 before Modern season has ended.

8. Disharmony
$5.00 to $6.24 (18.6%)

Disharmony is the purely defensive version of Ray of Command.

It is a rare from Legends and is on the Restricted List.

It is not played in any competitive deck so its value is tied strictly to low supply and casual use.

It is a $5 card that occasionally flirts with being a $6 or $7 card and then goes right back to $5.

Since it is used so little, I would just try to get them as toss ins on trades from people that have them stuck with their budget rares.

7. Karakas
$120.00 to $149.99 (25.0%)

Sneak and Show decks have been doing well in Legacy recently. They made up half of the semifinals on Sunday, April 6^th.

Karakas helps play defense against Griselbrand and Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. If you keep bouncing their creatures you can keep your permanents and your life total safe.

It is a land, so it can be used in a wide variety of decks such as Lands, Death and Takes, UWR Miracles, ANT, Junk Depths and anything else that wants it.

It is a rare from Legends which means it is in quite small supply. It is unlikely that Wizards of the Coast will ever reprint it outside of its Judge Promo. I do not see the price coming down.

6. Hurkyl’s Recall
$2.98 to $3.73 (25.2%)

This card keeps picking up steam. It is a powerful sideboard card in both Modern and Legacy.

It is commonly used in Merfolk, Ad Nauseam and BUG Delver decks to keep Affinity decks at bay. Since Affinity is the one of the most aggressive decks in Modern, I don’t see this falling out of favor any time soon.

The one unfortunate thing about hate cards is that if they do their job too well then the decks they are fighting will fall out of favor. This makes the sideboard slot less useful.

It’s a terrible cycle and gives Hurkyl’s Recall a ceiling which I believe it will hit soon. It will then plateau around $5.

5. Sigil of the Empty Throne
$1.79 to $2.32 (29.6%)

Journey into Nyx previews are upon us and that brings us to the new Constellation mechanic.

It is featured on several enchantment creatures that have an enters-the-battlefield effect which triggers every time an enchantment enters the battlefield under your control.

This will hopefully bring an evolution to modern Mono-White Prison and Azorius Control decks.

We have not seen many of these cards yet, but if they have powerful enough effects, we could see the birth of new control decks that take advantage of a cornucopia of free effects that bury your opponent in card advantage.

The card has only been printed twice. The first time was in Conflux and the second time was in the Planechase 2012 decks.

Supply is short and the buy in price is low. I think that this card could easily hit $4 or $5 or more if the right cards line up. I’d grab mine while they are still budget rares.

4. Negate (Textless Magic Players Reward Card)
$8.50 to $11.35 (33.5%)

Negate is used as a sideboard card in several Standard and Modern control decks.

Pimping decks with foil and promo versions of cards is the hallmark of an eternal format, as no one wants to invest the extra money into a deck that has an expiration date.

Last week we looked at Negate’s rise in price, and while it did get to $13 briefly, it has already begun its descent.

The decks that want it only want one or two copies and even those mostly reside in the sideboard.

I still feel this will settle in the $8 to $10 area.

That is great news if you bought in at $4 a couple of weeks ago but not so great news if you want to buy in now.

3. Ichorid
$7.42 to $12.01 (61.9%)

Ichorid has long been a staple of Legacy Dredge decks, both vanilla Dredge and Manaless Dredge.

When graveyard hate begins to become lax it makes a powerful (and relatively inexpensive) metagame choice. This Sunday was just such an occasion, as Manaless Dredge was able to make its way into the Top 8.

I have long thought of Ichorid as a card that is primed for a jump in price, but I think that this was a little too much, too quickly.

I think the card will settle down to the $10 area, but it will hold steady after that.

With the price of dual lands skyrocketing, it is no wonder that people are exploring ways to play Legacy that skirt around the greatest price barrier in the format.

2. Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
$1.10 to $3.27 (197.3%)

The Standard Golgari Dredge deck has been a darling for many after what had been a rather stale Standard environment over the past few months.

I think this deck will gain a lot with the printing of the Green/Black Scryland and a god.

However, the important thing to not is that this price spike is for the printing from Duel Decks: Izzet vs Golgari and not the Return to Ravnica mythic rare.

This smells like someone trying to corner the market on the card.

I would have no problem trading for these at $1 to $2, but with rotation looming and a new set coming out, I would be wary of a card tripling in value on one version but not the other when they came out so close together.

I would sit this one out.

1. Edric, Spymaster of Trest
$4.28 to $23.0 (437.4%)

Eric Rill singlehandedly made this happen! On Sunday, April 6^th he took down the Milwaukee SCG Legacy Open with his Four Color Delver Deck.

In a format as powerful as Legacy every card matters. A few attacks from Insectile Aberration and Haste-y Elemental Tokens can really make a difference.

Young Pyromancer combined with many powerful one mana spells, including Ponder, Brainstorm and “free” spells like Daze and Gitaxian Probe to keep the beats coming.

Edric, Spymaster of Trest was only available in the original Commander decks and Commander Arsenal so supply is hard to come by.

If you have been holding onto these and don’t want to play with them, I would move them quickly. This spike is based off of one week’s results and now this deck will be a known entity.

I would certainly never buy in on a spike like this, but if results continue then $20 could become the new price.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Sensei’s Divining Top (FTV)
$48.94 to $45.80 (-6.4%)

This is regarding the printing of Sensei’s Divining Top included in From the Vault: Exiled. It is among the Top 20 Most played cards in Legacy.

Its effect is simple but strikingly powerful with Delver of Secrets, Counterbalance and Entreat the Angels.

Its efficient cost makes it ideal in nearly any deck.

I would look at any momentary lapse in price as a discount. There is no way that these do not continue to increase in value over time.

4. Twilight Mire
$30.45 to $26.99 (-11.4%)

Twilight Mire is still on an upward trajectory. It has just stumbled a little in its rise from $16 to $32.

Jund has been been slipping from the Modern standings, but Green/Black Obliterator is the new flavor of the month and uses the Eventide rare as well.

It helps set up mana for Kitchen Finks into Phyrexian Obliterator which is no easy feat.

I would still consider this as a great card to pick up in trade on its way to $40.

3. Xenagos, God of Revels
$13.81 to $12.00 (-13.1%)

Xenagos, God of Revels may be upsetting the pantheon on Theros, but he is failing to keep steady results in Standard.

The decks that play him, Naya Midrange and Jund Midrange tend to only play one or two copies.

He has been slipping steadily since he was printed. He is from a second set, so he will continue to be opened at the same rate with JOU-BOG-THS drafts as he was before. Supply will continue to increase at a steady pace throughout the summer.

His cost of five mana makes him awkward in quick, aggressive decks and there are usually better cards to play if you are trying to go over the top.

I think as we get more gods in Journey Into Nyx, he may find himself replaced in both Jund and Naya decks.

This will continue to go down. I would keep any eye on it and try to catch a few when it hits $8. Casual appeal of a god will make sure that it never gets too much lower than that.

2. Ancient Tomb
$49.51 to $36.00 (-27.3%)

The release in From the Vaults: Realms got up to almost $50 before coming back.

A month ago this card only $12. The Tempest copy jumped up around the same time and has been staying strong at $24.

Keep in mind that this is the only foil copy of the card. I think it should be more than just 50% more than the vanilla version.

I will not be surprised when it gets back to $50.

I don’t think its ever going back below $35, especially with the strong showings from Sneak and Show.

1. Silent-Blade Oni
$9.75 to $5.05 (-48.2%)

This card actually jumped all the way to $15 before sinking to $5. Sometimes when I think of what the value of this card has been doing (based on almost nothing so far as I can tell) I think someone is just punking the Magic finance community.

However, I think $5 is a terrific price and would gladly snatch it up at that price.

Wait a day and sell it for $9.

Wait for it to go back to $5.

Rinse and repeat.

Casual Fridays

What I’m Trading For

April 11, 2014 Cliff Daigle 2 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

My goal is always to increase the long-term value of my collection. I’m not thinking in weeks or sets, I’m thinking in months and years.

Right now, there’s a few cards that I’m targeting. I’m not aggressively spending money here, but I am picking these up in trades whenever possible.

Conversely, there’s a few cards I am looking to get rid of. The idea of ‘When should I get rid of my rotating cards?’ is something that I and other writers have covered on this site, and my answer is always “Early.”

If you wait to get rid of these cards, then you’ll be one of very many people who are no longer playing these cards and are trying to trade them away. No one will be seeking these out during the summer, so if you want to get maximum value, the time is now. Keep one set for the Standard deck you’re playing all summer, and understand that you’re getting value out of the games, not the trade value of the cards.

First, the cards I’m trading away:

Desecration Demon, Pack Rat:

Right now, these cards are part of a winning strategy in Mono-Black Devotion. People want to play this deck, and it’s putting up results that give these once-bulk rares some surprisingly high prices. The truth is, between the clear lack of value at rotation, and being in the Event Deck, these have already started to decline.

That value will be even lower when the new block arrives in September and these lose their Standard legality. Keep a set if you want to play the deck, but right now you need to move these cards out.

Nightveil Specter:

Similar to the two above, only this sees play in Mono-Blue as well. There’s no future in Modern for this, and you should let others enjoy this card for six months.

Mutavault:

To be clear: I don’t think this is going to fall down terribly far. Modern has shown that it can keep some prices amazingly high. I do think that its current price of $30-$35 is sustainable in the long term, but that is a year or more away. I think there is profit to be made in trading it away now, and then getting some back when they rotate in September. I suspect these will be around $15-$20 then. The historical example would be Cavern of Souls.

Ad Nauseam:

I’m always going to side with those to advocate selling into the hype. If you have any of these, you likely didn’t get them at $8. It will take sustained success for this Modern deck to inflate the prices much further, so you’re risking substantial profits if you try to hold out for it to reach $10-$15. Don’t get greedy.

Most of Return to Ravnica block:

I’m not sure that Deathrite Shaman is going to be the next Stoneforge Mystic, price-wise. The amount of supply is far greater, and the Legacy demand is far smaller. Jace, Architect of Thought is not good enough for Modern. Sphinx’s Revelation isn’t either. Boros Reckoner is riding a new wave of hype, sell into it.

I do advocate holding your Abrupt Decays, though. I think there is going to be a Modern boost to that card, it’s just too good against too many things.

Now, the cards I’m trading for:

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

Born of the Gods previews started this week (more on that next Friday) but I remain firmly convinced that this will be $15 around Christmas-time. This card is capable of some obscene tricks, despite its limitations. It has a chance to be amazing in Modern, too. I think there will be some very good devotion decks, and I also think that this card is a lot of fun to build around in casual circles.

Thassa, God of the Sea

This isn’t even about blue devotion. This is about being cheap and powerful and low-risk to use. Every deck that turns on her devotion sees that as gravy – making Mutavaults unblockable is a real treat. Her price may approach $10 as we get to the end of Theros block, and at that point, I might skip trading and start buying.

Any Temple

Temple of Enlightenment is perhaps the exception, since everyone likes a UW control deck. All the other Temples are around $6, and the two in Journey Into Nyx might not make it below $8, due to the smaller amount of packs that will be opened.

In terms of trade value, these are easy picks to hit $10 during the next block, and perhaps higher. We’ve seen that many decks are currently willing to play extra Temples for the free scry and perhaps that will continue into the next block. We don’t know what the next set of dual-producing lands will be, but the Temples have demonstrated their value in Standard and are good targets to increase in value.

Any foil God

There’s always going to be players who are looking for their favorite cards in foil. The Gods (all fifteen) offer unique effects and play mechanics, but I’m not yet ready to go for blanket pickups of them all, except in foil. The frame looks good, they are mythic, and they are not that pricey. The supply of the ten multicolor Gods is going to be much lower than the original five, and that means the prices on the foils aren’t going to come down too far. There may be room for the prices to come down a few bucks, but every one I see for trade, I’ll be pushing for.

I expect the Gods to hold strong casual appeal for a long while.

Any foil shockland

These are comfortably sitting between $25-$35 right now, and that value is not going to change at all at rotation. These have nowhere to go but up, both from casual demand and Modern players wanting to pimp out their decks. (Did you know that original Ravnica block shocklands in foil are all over $100?)

Foils are collectibles. Once someone gets their hands on a foil, it is going into a deck/binder/Cube and staying there, reducing the number in circulation. I’ve got enough doing exactly that, believe me.

Join me next week as we begin evaluating Journey into Nyx and my predictions about those Gods.

Think Twice

Lessons on Modern Picks

April 10, 2014 Camden Clark 10 Comments

By: Camden Clark

I’ve been a writer at MTGPrice for about two months now. In that time, Magic has seen a Modern Pro Tour and a couple of Modern GPs.

I am going to take a break from my Magic Online series to do a recap on the wins and losses and go over every card that I have made predictions on (this article gave me the idea ). I have always been a major fan of learning lessons on the decisions and predictions we made and learning on them for the future. Thus, this article is the natural progression as I make predictions heading into the PTQ season (I talk a lot more on Twitter too)

I have mostly talked about Modern as that is where the energy and motion in Magic is. I have never been a big fan of Standard, while most of the Legacy market eludes me. Thus, Modern has become one of the places of progress in Magic for the past few years.

There is SO much room in this format, which means there are new opportunities all the time.

Let’s take a look at the previous opportunities that I pointed out and see what lessons those can teach us.

The Wins

Restoration Angel
Predictions: 1 ; 2 ; 3

This was a fairly major win. Restoration Angel spiked by huge margins due to its playability in some builds of UWR, UWR Twin, Kiki-Pod, and a few other fringe decks. This card wasn’t seeing a ton of play initially, but with the new changes I knew there would be some changes to the metagame. My predictions weren’t exactly correct (no Restoration Angel + Bitterblossom deck); however, I was not disappointed by the outcome. You easily could have doubled your money here on a quite cheap spec.

This teaches us to look for cards that see some play but can easily be thrown into the spotlight. Moreover, this card had price and play memory in the infamous UW Delver deck of INN-SOM standard. This is an important lesson.

Mistbind Clique
Predictions: 1

Although this card saw little play at the Pro Tour or the Grand Prix, is still saw massive gains after the initial hype died down. You could still have gotten this for five at the time I wrote about it, and you could have tripled your money.

I don’t know what the lesson is here. I didn’t exactly make a prediction to buy this, especially if it saw little play. Nevertheless, it went up. I am at a loss for how this card saw the massive gains it got.

Knight of the Reliquary
Predictions: 1

Even though Zoo put up abysmal results at every tournament, this card still went up. The niche playability in Legacy and fun factor of this card ensured it would see play somewhere. This card was REALLY cheap for being somewhat playable in a few formats. Brian Kibler will always toot Zoo’s horn. I think that’s the main reason this saw movement despite Zoo’s failure. I would sell out now if you still have them.

Cryptic Command
Predictions: 1 ; 2

It is kind of funny I hit this one right on the head. I stated at the time “this card could see sixty dollars.” Unbelievably, it hit sixty dollars.

The lesson here is that there is little roof on the staples of this format. Wizards has too much invested in Modern for this format to fail. Would you have predicted hundreds of dollars for a single dual land like Underground Sea? Although there is no reserved list, these cards will get more and more expensive.

I can’t remember who to attribute this to, but I’ve heard a saying: “the best time to buy eternal staples is now.” You should keep this in mind, it will save you a whole bunch of money going into the future.

Birthing Pod
Predictions: 1

This is probably my most triumphant success. I have no idea how this card wasn’t forty dollars from the get-go. Melira Pod and Kiki-Pod have had showings for at least two years. It was inevitable for this to see a huge spike. I’m really glad I put people on to this and you all made a whole bunch of money.

The lesson from this is that there are cards that seem like they have seen a ceiling but can still rise.

Unchanged

Kiki-Jiki
Predictions: 1 ; 2

This card has seen no price movement despite being in a deck that won a Grand Prix.

I overestimated the amount of people that were playing this card and the amount they were playing in their decks. Unfortunately, this means that there was no money to be made here. I think this card has reached a personal ceiling and won’t go above it for a while.

Deathrite Shaman
Prediction: 1

This one has been all over the place. There were no short term gains, but this is a long term pick, like I outlined in my prediction. I have no fear that this will go up in the long term. It has significant Legacy play and somewhat of a casual appeal. Hold your copies if you didn’t unload them after the bans.

Splinter Twin
Prediction: 1

Although there has been a small gain here, it wasn’t significant enough to call this a “win.” I would hold on to these copies as we head into PTQ season. You will not be disappointed by this investment once it is easier to move copies and there is more demand.

There is huge potential for this card. It sees tons of play in the Splinter Twin deck which is currently No. 2 in the meta on Magic Online. I have no doubt this will go up.

Huntmaster of the Fells
Predictions: 1 ; 2

This one is quite hard to tell. All of the major retailers are all but cleaned out of this card. There is little data for how much this card has moved up or down.

I looked on TCGPlayer and there are still quite a bunch of copies. I don’t know how to feel about this one. However, the buylist on this card isn’t very good. I’d hold if/when this sees some real play.

Losses

Remand
Predictions: 1 ; 2

Unfortunately, after my predictions, a reprint was announced. It’s pretty annoying that this was announced in the weeks after my prediction. However, this was the only loss to speak of. There wasn’t even that big of a loss; here’s a picture:

I think this card will eventually go back up. If you still have copies and don’t need the capital, I would hold on to this. It is a staple in Modern and will see invariably see play in this format.

The lesson from this card specifically is the inevitability of randomness in your speculations. You can’t always be right. You can’t avoid having unexpected announcements or reprints in your catalog eventually. You have to take the good with the bad. This should be a lesson to never invest too much in one card. If that card falls or stays put, you are out all of your overhead such as shipping and spread between buying and selling.

From my perspective, the value that you could find in my articles was fairly good. My predictions, for the most part, have panned out or at least stayed the same. So far, I’ve had amazing triumphs and some disappointing losses but Modern was quite prolific. I hope I’ve displayed to you that there’s some value in my decisionmaking and choose to take the ride with me into the PTQ season where the swings will be massive and decisive.

I don’t think Mana Bloom and Amulet of Vigor type cards with niche applications are a good way to profit. However, that is mostly my style of investing (although others think the same way) It is too easy to get burned if you are playing with hot coals. The upside could be major, but staying out of these one-off cards is a great way to stay objective and not get carried away.

Despite my warnings, you should be as optimistic as I am about the Modern format. There is so much excitement and energy that surrounds this relatively new way of playing Magic. That excitement is only beginning. The Pro Tour set the stage for the run into PTQ season. You can ride the excitement to major profits if you time it right. There are still opportunities, don’t miss them.

City of Traders

Consuming Aberration is a $4 Card

April 9, 2014 Travis Allen 15 Comments

By: Travis Allen

Consuming Aberration is a $4 card. Consuming. Aberration. Is a $4 card. Are you really reading these words? Do you understand what they mean? Read them again. Think about them. Consuming Aberration is a $4 card. Huh. What does that mean?

Well, it means we should take it out of our bulk boxes.

I’m not sure how I stumbled upon this. I remember plugging it into MTGPrice for some reason and seeing a price of $4.10. I assumed it was a mistake. The site is great, but there are always algorithmic problems and such. I flipped over to my magiccards.info tab. I plugged it in. $3.72 mid.

Huh.

I flipped back to MTGPrice. The buylist was $2.32. ABU Will give you $2.32 for copies of Consuming Aberration. ABU Games will give you more than two American dollars for a copy of Consuming Aberration.

Huh.

Where is the demand for this card coming from? Who is driving the price up to $4? It’s not an old, out-of-print diamond-in-the-rough gem. It isn’t on the reserved list. It’s a Standard legal rare that sees absolutely zero play in any constructed format.

Think about your local store. Have you ever, since Gatecrash released, heard someone unironically ask if you had any Consuming Aberration for trade?

Nobody wants this trash. It’s complete and utter garbage. It is the absolute worst kind of rare. 100% bulk. (Or so we thought.) The next time you’re at your LGS, yell out “does anyone want a free Consuming Aberration?” It is entirely possible that not a single person will want the free card. Think about that. In a room full of Magic players, you literally could not give this card away. This will not be true of every store, but it will certainly be true of some.

What else in Standard costs $4 right now? Supreme Verdict, sweeper du jour and playable in the four largest constructed formats, is $6. A bit more, yes, but it’s still in the same ballpark. It’s a lot closer than most of us would have guessed without looking. Desecration Demon, scourge of the skies and bane of green decks everywhere is $5. This is a card that has a good 70% chance to win any given Standard GP and it’s only $1 more than Consuming Aberration. Puzzled yet?

Most of the Scrylands are around $4 to $5 as well. Temple of Enlightenment isn’t, but the rest are hanging around there. The most important lands in the largest sanctioned format are about the same price as Consuming Aberration. That tells us something curious.

Price is a factor of supply and demand. For the most part we can assume that Consuming Aberration and any given Scryland should have the same supply. (Really, the Scrylands should be lower supply right now if anything. Gatecrash has come and gone, and there are virtually no new packs being opened. Theros and BOG are still being drafted, so there is still some flow of Scrylands.)

If you assume that the supply is equal between the two cards, and their prices are still just about equal, what does that mean for the rest of our equation? It means that the demand for the Scrylands is equivalent to the demand for Consuming Aberration. Consuming Aberration is just as desirable as the Scrylands. If everyone at your LGS is looking for Scrylands but nobody wants Aberration, just where is this demand coming from?

Welcome to the invisible majority. All of us – the tournament grinder and speculators, the heavy traders and constructed players – are the minority of Magic players. Of course, we FEEL like we’re the majority. We’re all loud, we talk on every form of social media, and we’re the ones represented on official coverage. Wizards isn’t broadcasting kitchen table “anything goes” four-Sol-Ring four-Tolarian-Academy Magic on their Twitch channel. But the reality of the situation is that you and I and everyone like us comprises a far smaller portion of the Magic world at large.

Obviously the price swings on tournament staples is nobody’s fault but our own. Casual players aren’t making Sphinx’s Revelation and Voice of Resurgence $30. But they are capable of making Consuming Aberration a $4 card, with absolutely no help from any of us. It requires some serious demand to move a Standard rare to $4, and by golly they did it. When the the casual market can push a bulk Standard card that hard, we need to be paying attention. The market force is bigger than any of us, but if we hop on the wave we maybe be able to ride it.

Price behavior is going to be quite different than we’re used to. Most of us have come to be familiar with the wild nature of constructed staples. Cards rise and fall by factors of ten semi-regularly. We understand rotation, we understand “constructed playable,” and we understand ban lists. This is all irrelevant when dealing with casual cards though. There are no rotations. There aren’t “staples” or fear of reprints or ban lists. There’s a large, quiet group of players and there are cool cards. Column A wants Column B. It doesn’t matter whether its March or September or whether the card is legal in Modern. Players want cards and they order them online or purchase at their LGS from the total finite pool available. Slowly the supply dwindles, and as it does, prices rise. Occasionally copies make it back into rotation if a player sells their collection to a friend, but for the most part the supply is evaporating. The result is a plodding, semi-smooth rise in price.

With the recent influx of players in the last few years, there’s going to be growing demand on old casual staples. This is why Vigor is $20. Yet there is stilll profit to be made. There’s plenty of other old casual cards that haven’t adjusted their price. While they may not spike as often, and they aren’t sexy, they’re going to be practically guaranteed profit. Buying quiet casual allstars means you can’t brag about looking like a genius because you bought ninety Heralds of Torment at $.40 before they jumped to $7. But you can fill your collection with $1-$5 casual cards that are virtual locks to double or triple (or more?) in price within a year or two.

MTGPrice Blog