Four Speculation Tips During the Pro Tour

By: Camden Clark

Undoubtedly with a new modern format, the upcoming Pro Tour will showcase Modern cards and decks that are going to soar over the next few months. These include short-term gains on cards that everyone jumps on and long-term gains on cards that will increase as we go into the Modern PTQ season this summer.

This begs the question: how do you identify these opportunities during the Pro Tour?

1. Be liquid

The most important thing you can do leading up to the Pro Tour is BE LIQUID. This means selling off some of those specs that have panned out. It’s a bit too late to do this in paper (unless you trade a bit at FNM), but on MODO you still have a day to liquidate certain holdings in order to be liquid.

Why is being liquid important? It’s the only way you are going to be able to capitalize on the shifts in the market that are inevitably going to happen in the coming few days. If you don’t have some legitimate capital to put behind specs, you will not be able to take advantage.

There are a couple of pitfalls. The first is liquidating current long term specs that haven’t actually paid off. If you have long-term specs that haven’t gained at all yet, you should NOT liquidate them. It’s not worth the loss taken to have simply an opportunity to get money. For example, if you’re on a long term hold on some casual cards like Parallel Lives, don’t sell out. It’s not worth it.

The second pitfall is investing too much into hype. If you invest too high of a percentage, you could lose A LOT if the spec doesn’t pan out. I know this sounds basic and elementary, but when you get in the heat of the moment, you might get pulled into spending over 15% of your spec money into today’s Nivmagus Elemental. Who really wants to get stuck with a bunch of their money in that?

2. Study the Pro Tour Coverage

There is a difference between “watching” the Pro Tour coverage and “studying” it. It is the difference between watching a deck and assuming you know how to play it and playing that deck yourself. The difference is MASSIVE. If you think you can watch the Pro Tour coverage and pick winners, you are in a much worse place than someone who is getting the whole picture.

What is the whole picture?

That is analyzing every part of the Pro Tour coverage. You have to see which teams are playing what deck. You have to see where there are connections between decks playing the same card. You have knowledge as a player what is good. Use that instinct to see the most played cards.

My personal investing style is to see what cards are in two different major decks that are doing well. This means taking notes on the featured decks, their players, and seeing how they progress in the tournament. If I see a card twice, especially in different decks, I start to watch that card. There will be some drastic inventory shifts: don’t miss out on that vital information as well

Here’s what I do:

I write down the player’s name. I write down the deck they are playing. I write down the cards I want to watch. Then, search them out on Twitter. If they have an account, I follow them because many Pro Tour contenders post updates. I also make note if they are on a specific team for the Pro Tour.

Here’s a picture of what I mean:

At the end of the first day, I will look at how they are doing in the current standings. I write down their current standings and make note of how other people on their team are doing and what the breakout decks are.

How do you make a move then?

You watch the standings verrrry carefully day two. You want to pay more attention to those who are higher seeded, and the breakout decks and cards that come from the upper brackets. Written coverage is invaluable to see how games went.

All I’ll say is: watch LSV. You’ll make a lot of money.

There’s another tool you should be using to its full extent:

3. Keep both eyes on twitter

This will give you the signal to move in.

There are two types of people I would follow extremely closely. These two groups are speculators and pro players.

Why follow speculators? It’s pretty cut and dry: they generate the investment demand. The moment Chas or Corbin says a nice word about a card, you should make a buy order faster than a Blood Moon can ruin a perfectly good game of Magic. I honestly would have updates sent to my phone. Considering this is a European PT, you should be paying attention this weekend and basically be on Euro time to catch the important tweets. You’ll have a major edge up if you change your schedule to accommodate the pro tour. It will allow you to move in faster on what the speculators like than someone who is paying absolutely no attention at all. I’d also appreciate it if you’d follow me. I’ll be tweeting my thoughts on the Pro Tour.

The pros also need to be followed. They have the first-hand information. They will provide the REAL demand from REAL players who actually want to play in the PTQs in the summer. Who to follow? As I said earlier, LSV will make you some serious money. If he mentions a card or deck, there will be a thousand people on it (see Travis Woo’s Ninja Bear Delver deck). I also like following Travis Woo. He generates a lot of casual demand for cards that otherwise wouldn’t see spikes.

You should also be following the #mtgfinance hashtag if you aren’t already. That will make you a lot and get a firsthand look into cards that are being buzzed about.

4. Watch these cards

This article wouldn’t be complete without some cards to watch. Here you are. Full disclosure: I have no stock in any of these cards. I too am waiting to watch the PT coverage. 

Huntmaster of the Fells

Using ProTrader, I have been watching the inventory data on this card. Copies of this card have been disappearing from all of the retailers. It doesn’t make sense; there hasn’t been too much buzz about it. There has not been a spike on this yet. It’s overdue. This card may see some play. I’m just not sure. I think you should watch it over the weekend and if you see it played just send some of your bankroll this way.

Restoration Angel

This one has to see some play.

I feel like I’m beating a dead horse with this one, but there should be some good play here. I’m a buyer on this card if I even see it played ONCE. Especially in Kiki-Pod. I wrote earlier about how Restoration Angel could see play in a Kiki-pod list or even a RWU twin list. Or maybe Restoration Angel will blink some faeries. Definitely a card to watch.

Remand

I’d also like to watch the price of Remand. Splinter Twin and UR delver both play this card. I’ve heard buzz about both decks. I don’t think it’s out of the question to see a UB faeries deck with Remand as well. Keep a very close eye.

Kiki-Jiki Mirror Breaker

I think it will take the breakout of Splinter Twin or Kiki-Pod at this tournament to see a spike here. However if there is a spike, it’s potentially huge. I’ll be watching these decks closely as I think they could make up the new meta after the banlist change. 

Cryptic Command

Could we see 60 dollars for a now-eternal staple? Yes.

I have no doubt this will be played. I personally think it can make it to the finals of the tournament. I’m a buyer much earlier unless there are very few copies.

Thanks for reading! I hope y’all make a ton of money during this lucrative time. Remember to buy smart and follow me on twitter.

Affordable Luxury

Part of the allure of Magic is the wide array of choices a player has when selecting a deck. However you want to win, it can happen. Whether you want to grind people to dust under the heel of attrition, ramp into gigantic threats, flip their library into their graveyard, or attack with a million billion faeries, the choice is yours. This choice leads to a sense of customization and individualization. When you first put together a legacy deck, it’s “a Metalworker deck.” After you play it for awhile and change a few cards based on what you think works and what doesn’t work, it becomes “my Metalworker deck.” Tailoring our weapons to ourselves makes us feel more in touch with the game and the process. We take ownership of cards and decklists, and treat them as a mark of our ingenuity, cleverness, and innovation.

It makes sense that players will go to any length to make a deck appear special, typically by adding unique visual flair and increasing the dollar value of the components. Conspicuous consumption is a very real thing, and Magic is no stranger to it. In the pursuit of luxury, many players will choose the “stock” option of trying to foil as many cards as possible. Some will shoot for foreign non-foil, perhaps of a specific language. Some want art alters. Others choose to spend ludicrous amounts of money to go with Japanese foils. There are many paths to take in making a deck yours.

Some of these paths are very expensive. Japanese foils regularly fetch anywhere from four to one hundred times more than an English non-foil. Even English Standard staples in foil get rather expensive. How does a player that wants a nifty looking deck that feels like “theirs” do so without breaking the bank, especially in a way that won’t devalue the hell out of their collection every year?

Back to Basics

Nearly everyone agrees that Unhinged lands look awesome. They’re all John Avon, how could they not? But they’re expensive. Islands are nearly $10 these days for a nonfoil. Foil Unhinged Islands are around $70, and the others aren’t much cheaper. For true absurdity, there are Guru Islands, which currently clock in around $200. Zendikar basics are certainly fetching, but everyone and their mother has nonfoils, and the foils aren’t cheap. Acquiring a few foil Zendikar lands for your Legacy deck isn’t too tough, but if you want to play Standard you’re going to need about twenty of each basic. At an easy $10 a pop, that is a pricey set of basic lands. 

Instead of going with the same lands everyone else has/wants, head off the beaten path. First, choose old border or new border. I personally prefer old border, as I feel that the foils are more brilliant, but new border gives you far more artwork options. Next, choose an art. There are lots of basics with awesome artwork throughout Magic’s history. Finally, start acquiring!

A single foil basic isn’t as noteworthy as a single foil Unhinged land, but doesn’t underestimate how good it looks when all your basics match. And perhaps most attractively, a random foil basic is going to be around $1. Don’t worry about trying to find all one hundred or so at once either. Pick out your five, and list them in any of your Have/Wants lists if you do online trading. Browse the foil basics at your LGS. (All stores have a box or binder of these.) Every time you place an order online for other cards, check to see if they have any of your basics in stock. (If the site doesn’t specifically list collector’s number, make sure you email them first to ask about exactly which one it is they have in stock. Some will just list “8th Edition Foil Island” without mentioning which of the four it is.) Slowly you’ll fill up on them, and before you know it you’ve got a huge stockpile of all matching lands that are yours and yours alone.

Uncommon Aesthetic

Foils rares and mythics are splashy, but they’re often expensive. Even the bulkiest of bulk rares are usually a dollar or two foil, and as they become playable prices rise quickly. It’s even worse when you consider foiling something like Thragtusk, which you know very well is going to rotate in a year. Instead, focus on the workhorse half of your deck – the commons and uncommons. Frostburn Weird

Foil Hero’s Downfall? Twenty bucks. Foil Doom Blade? Under $4. Cloudfin Raptor is a $2 foil. Elvish Mystic is kind of pricey at the moment, but Devour Flesh is a buck. Ultimate Price and Gray Merchants are only a few dollars as well.

Not all commons and uncommons are going to be throw-in cheap, as Elvish Mystic, Dissolve, or the Ravnica charms will attest to. But plenty are quite inexpensive, and a good way to add additional shiny to your deck without breaking the bank. The best time to grab these is just as a set releases, preferably during prerelease season. My strategy? Once the full spoiler is up, I peruse all the commons and uncommons that look remotely playable, and order foil sets of each for around $2.

Heritage

Another thing to watch for is reprints and older editions of cards. Sometimes people won’t even realize a card is a reprint. Remember Ray of Revelation from Innistrad? How many of you knew that was a reprint? I’m sure some, but not all. It was originally printed in Judgment, which conveniently enough, had foils. I loved rocking my originals. They were unique, looked great, and I was the only person in the room with them. 

There are plenty of other ways to end up with different editions of cards than everyone else in the room as well. Edge of Autumn could pretty easily end up in Standard. If it does, do you want to be casting the plain Jane M15 edition, or the awesomely-bordered Future Sight foil that is currently $.60?

Occasionally there are nifty Gateway promos that don’t tend to permeate through American soil very quickly, but are still quite inexpensive. (The Plague Myr promo isn’t actually $17, it’s just some donk on Amazon asking that much.) There are piles of reprinted commons and uncommons, and while previous-edition rares may not differ in price too much from their new copies, they can still look quite different. Simple utility cards like Pithing Needle and Ratchet Bomb have alternate artworks, and there are some rares that have a swath of options when it comes to appearance.

Permanence

Think about what it’s like to have Sphinx’s Revelation in your deck. It sits in your hand for most of the game, obscured from all eyes but your own. When you finally do cast it, you just tap all your lands, flash the card quick, say “Sphinx’s for five” and toss it in the bin. Did your opponent even notice that it’s foil? Compare to Domri Rade. You slam that thing down on turn two, and it sits there, gleaming for the whole world to see for the whole game.

A foil Domri may not be especially cheaper than a foil Sphinx’s, but you’re getting more bang for your buck in the “look at how ostentatious I am” factor. In general, I much prefer to foil permanents over spells. They spend more time in play and are far more visible than something that moves straight to the grumper on cast. This isn’t to say you shouldn’t foil spells – I’ve got plenty of them in my personal binder – but if you have to choose between trading for a foil Revelation or a foil Jace AoT, think about which one you and your opponents are going to spend more time looking at.

Altered States

There are cards that exist in this state where there really is no good option for making it flashy. Take Duplicant. The foil on this thing is $35, and for the longest time was close to $50. Have you ever actually seen a pack foil Duplicant before? Nobody has. Even if they were holding it in their hands. The foiling process on it was so bad you could barely tell. It is unnoticeable in binder sleeves. Who the hell wants to spend $50 on a foil nobody knows is foil?

The recent Commander’s Arsenal edition is bad too, just in a different way. Not only is the art a bit muddy, it’s got that God-awful foiling process that looks like a Yu-Gi-Oh card and warps like nobody’s business. What’s an EDH deck to do?

Art alter! Alters are all over the Magic community, and they’re a great way to make expensive-to-foil cards look exciting without spending obscene amounts of cash. Whether it’s a card like Duplicant, which has an expensive foil that looks like garbage, Brainstorm, which has an absurdly expensive foil, or Force of Will, which simply doesn’t exist in any other fashion, alters are a flexible answer. The best part of alters is that not only are your choices practically infinite, you can even do it yourself if you’re willing to learn and enjoy a challenging creative endeavor. I’m absolutely not an artist, but I gave my Duplicant a whack a few years ago. It is by no means a remarkable piece, but simple cartoon-quality artwork with flat colors and bold lines is pretty easy to replicate on your own. Painting outside the border is quite accessible as well, and with very little skill you can create something that is one-of-a-kind with very little natural talent or skill. I included images of two of my attempts here, not because I think they’re particularly good, but because I want you to see that you can create something halfway-decent with literally zero artistic ability.

regrowth                duplicant

Even if you’re scared to pick up a paintbrush, there is a no shortage of willing artists out there ready for your commission. While Eric Klug produces some phenomenal work, he is by no means the only person putting out quality pieces. Check out this art alter thread over on MTGS to see what’s possible. It’s downright amazing what some of these individuals manage to create on a small piece of cardboard.

If commissioning a stranger isn’t a strategy you feel comfortable with, you can even try taking advantage of a good friend’s generosity. Most of us know someone who is an artist, whether it’s a close friend that knows Magic or just a girlfriend’s sister with a sketchbook. Artists typically love to art, and if you put some cards in front of them and say “would you please paint a fart coming out of this wizard’s butt” they may very well say yes with no expectation of reimbursement. The quality of your results will vary wildly, but if they’re doing it because they’re a nice person that is happy to create art others will see and appreciate, you can’t complain. Of course, if they do a decent job I’m sure an arrangement can be reached. Offering to take a friend out for dinner if he does your playset of Wild Nacatls as power rangers may be satisfactory all around. I’m not encouraging you to screw your artistic friends over, just explaining that it can certainly be worth trying to find out if there’s an arrangement that works for both of you.

On the Surface

Many of us carry playmats. Card store tables are often dirty, grimy, sticky, or even jagged. Nobody wants to slide their cards around on that, even in sleeves. The choice an average player has in playmats is sort of astounding. There are playmats from Grand Prixs, PTQ top 8s, judge mats, SCG IQs, and TCGPlayer events to name a few. This isn’t even counting the dizzying array of official and semi-official mats that companies like Ultra Pro offer. What do all of these mats have in common? They nearly all use MTG or other fantasy-grade artwork. 

Solid color playmats can be had for $10. Carrying over from the “abuse your friendships for cheap card alters” idea, consider pestering a friend to do a custom image for you on a solid mat. It doesn’t have to be extravagant to catch the eye. Let your imagination run wild. Tell them you want dinosaurs playing Magic. Ask for Tarmogoyf eating an ice cream cone. Maybe even give the artist free reign to draw absolutely anything they want. You may end up with something that you absolutely love and never would have thought of on your own.

Alternatively, there are sites out there now that let you print your own playmats for quite reasonable prices. Given that Ultra Pro mats can fetch upwards of $30, ~$25 for a custom printed mat is a steal. Print your dog’s dumb face on the mat. Use goofy art that has literally nothing to do with Magic. (Make sure you have permission!) Go with a “texture” type of print, so it looks like you’re playing on top of a metal crate from Half-Life. Design a grid with outlines for deck zone, red zone, etc with visual accents. For less than a typical “dragon with glowing eyes” or “chick with a big sword and bigger hooters” mat, you can have something truly unique.

These are just some ideas on how to look good playing Magic without breaking the bank on Korean Foil Mana Leaks. I’m sure I’m not the only one who has found little tips on where to save a few bucks when making your game presence special. Please share any you have in the tips, so we can all be a little flashier in our own way. Meanwhile, this weekend is Modern Pro Tour Valencia. Keep an eye out Friday morning for hot info off the floor. Then we’ll digest the results next Wednesday.

Sticker Shock – Higher Prices, but Will They Stay?

By: Jared Yost

Magic cards going up in price, you don’t say? I’ve noticed quite a few trending cards over the past week and we’re going to delve a bit deeper to see if the hype circus has come to town again or if these prices have actually corrected themselves.

Legacy

Rishadan Port

So, uh, it looks like that new $100 price point is going to stick after all for Rishadan Port. As of Friday, Starcity is still sold out of Ports at $100. TCGPlayer sellers are listing them at a minimum of $105 a copy, which means that either a buyout of Port has occurred at the $70 entry point (not likely), or the popularity of decks it is featured in has reached new highs (most likely). A buyout at $70 seems completely unrealistic to me, as the buy-in price is way too high to capitalize on when selling back into the market even at $100-$120 (which is probably where Port will settle in the near future). Foils are still an absurd at $500 – or $1500 if you want a Japanese foil. Just to put that in perspective, foil Polluted Delta’s are around $460. Delta is played in 40% of Legacy decks as opposed to Port which is played in 9%. Based on popularity alone it seems wrong that Port should be more expensive. One reason I can think of is that Mercadian Masques is an older set and the potential for foils to be lost or destroyed is much higher than for Onslaught-era cards. Another reason is that fewer Masques packs were opened over Onslaught since the set was so underpowered compared to the previous Urza’s block.

The rise in popularity of both Death and Taxes and Lands have made Rishadan Port absurdly expensive. I don’t see it coming down from this new high. I guess there is always the small chance of a reprint, since it is within the grace window of Masques through Scourge where the Reserved List does not apply (although at the same time the sets are not present in the Modern format).

 

Meddling Mage

Meddling Mage

Meddling Mage has seen a resurgence of play in Legacy due to the popularity of Patriot Aggro (though I believe this is a misnomer since the deck usually only runs 10 creatures, 4 Delver of Secrets, 4 Stoneforge Mystic, and 2 True-Name Nemesis with Meddling Mage in the board), Stoneblade, and Bant archetypes. The mage is typically run as a playset throughout the deck and sideboard combined, so the demand is high when she / he is needed. The upward trending price of $5 seems fair to me because both versions were printed in smaller secondary / tertiary sets. Expect Meddling Mage to retain this price going forward until the next reprint.

 

City of Traitors

City of Traitors

Another land that is taking off. Be honest, are any of you surprised that this land has risen? It has been sitting at around $35-$40 for the longest time and is now correcting in price to a new high of $55-$60. It has always been played in several legacy archetypes like Sneak and Show, Tezzerator, Imperial Painter, and MUD. Only one printing. The perfect factors for a price correction. The new high of $55-$60 will continue to be its price, and in the future I expect City to keep trending upwards. This land is on the Reserved List so they will be only getting rarer and rarer as the years go on.

 

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

With his own Legacy archetype to his name, this version of Tezzeret packs quite the punch in Legacy and could even make waves in Modern if the right deck opportunities present themselves. Right now though, his main format that he shines in is Legacy, and he does so not only through Tezz Control (which also made Transmute Artifact spike), but also Affinity where he can provide the necessary long-term advantage that the deck otherwise sorely lacks. The reprint boogeyman is always a possibility (especially with Planeswalkers because they can so easily be thrown into a Duel Deck), but I doubt we’ll see a reprint of this Tezzeret for quite a while since we already have the original Tezzeret that keeps getting reprinted. He is also from a small set, which means that the new price of around $20 will be sticking.

 

Modern

Cryptic Command

Cryptic Command

The premier counterspell of Modern, Cryptic Command has seen another upswing in price due the unbanning of Bitterblossom and the potential for the Fae to be a new fighting force in the format. Cryptic Command has always been sweet in Modern so I don’t see any reason why it would be less than $40 going into Modern season. I’m not sure how much higher this card could go, but I doubt it would be worth it to pick up extras. Get your playset in preparation for Modern season but don’t go out of your way to try and and acquire any extras as I’m not sure if there is any more potential for this go much higher due to the anticipated popularity of Zoo and other new non-blue archetypes.

 

Bloodghast

Bloodghast

Bloodghast is actually relevant in Modern now that Deathrite Shaman is banned. Along with cards like Vengevine, I can already see a new graveyard brew starting to form in the minds of pros and FNM grinders alike. Rather than trying to go deep on something like Vengevine, why not try to pick up some Bloodghasts at the much lower buy-in price of $7? These have the potential of doubling up once Modern season starts if there is even a whiff of a graveyard brew doing well that utilizes him. These types of cards are exactly where I want to be when trying to find undervalued rares, as they aren’t that hard to get into and don’t have much of chance of going down in price. (Dredge is a real deck in Vintage, in addition to the casual popularity of Bloodghast.)

 

Cavern of Souls

Cavern of Souls

Cavern is starting its trend upwards, which is exactly what I expected. This land is so powerful it’s not even funny. It nerfs blue players in Modern and hoses plenty of decks in Legacy, but most important of all it allows me (and all the other casuals) to play a five color sliver deck without having to worry about having my slivers being countered all the time! So awesome!

But seriously, pick up your Caverns if you haven’t yet. I believe you will come to regret it if you don’t as I don’t see them ever getting any cheaper than they are now.

 

Æther Vial Lord of Atlantis Threads of Disloyalty

Aether Vial
Lord of Atlantis
Threads of Disloyalty

I guess people are seriously starting to brew with Merfolk in Modern, as two of its core pieces are trending upwards and Threads continues to spike the closer to Modern season we get. All three are great in the Merfolk deck for different reasons.

Aether Vial is one of the deck’s backbones as it essentially acts as a pseudo-mox that allows you to play your Merfolk at instant speed.

The Time Shifted version of Lord of Atlantis is now nearing $7 which is noticeably more than its white bordered brothers from 4th through 7th edition. I guess having an all black bordered deck is more important to players, so watch out for any time shifted versions of Lord of Atlantis you might see.

Threads of Disloyalty was already known by many to be a great card in Modern, but unbanning Wild Nacatl just made it more awesome in the new format against the many possible Zoo decks Merfolk or other blue decks could face. Expect the $30 it is now commanding to stick until the next reprint.

 

Standard

Archangel of Thune Courser of Kruphix

Archangel of Thune
Courser of Kruphix

Archangel of Thune has risen in price because of the new centaur Courser of Kruphix and her interaction with landfalling to gain one life in order to pump up your team. I think a lot of people are picking her up in anticipation of someone breaking this interaction, in either a G/W shell or in a Bant shell that may utilize Kiora or Prophet of Kruphix.

Unfortunately since Starcitygames Somerset was canceled last weekend there wasn’t any new data to let us know if the Gruul Aggro deck with 4x Courser that placed second at Nashville is the real deal or not. Continue following Twitter and other hot sources for further updates as the next major tournament weekend comes.

I’m still quite keen on Ephara performing well so be on the lookout for her too in addition to any action these two cards are able to provide.

Commander / Casual

Cataclysm

Cataclysm

It appears that one of the most devastating cards in the Commander format is starting to trend upwards in price. What gives? I thought casuals hated land destruction and massive Armageddonlike effects? This upswing might have something to do with the card seeing marginal play in the sideboards of a few Death and Taxes decks in Legacy. (Note: Cataclysm is not on the reserved list – this could be a perfect candidate for the new FTV: Annihilation set coming up.) I would not buy into this card at current price of $10 – I believe it is bound to go down because land destruction is looked upon unfavorably in casual formats and the card really has not seen a lot of Legacy action outside of a few showings as a one or two of in Death and Taxes. Sell into the hype.

 

Skullclamp

Skullclamp

Skullclamp is trending upwards to around $5 per copy. I’m surprised it has taken this long to increase in price – even though it is banned in every format except for Vintage and Commander, it does see an extraordinary amount of play in Commander due to the fact that is the best equipment artifact ever printed for aggro decks. $5 is a fair price for Skullclamp. It has taken this long for it to get to $5 so I don’t expect it to go up any time soon in the future. If you have any extra copies, feel free to trade them out as it is going to take a while for this artifact to make the next price jump. In the mean time though, Darksteel foils seem like a pretty good deal if you can find them for $15.

 

Exquisite Blood

Exquisite Blood

The casual all-star that never seems to quit going up in value, Exquisite Blood has now reached a new high of $6. Call me crazy, but I feel like this card is the perfect candidate for a core set reprint just like Sanguine Bond. If you like playing with Exquisite Blood, keep your copies and enjoy the fun you will have activating Vizkopa Guildmage’s second ability and winning instantly. If this card means nothing to you, ignore it, as any price increases it makes at this point will only put you behind if you try to out them in the future. Everyone else, look for any extra copies you have and trade them out to pick up other Modern staples that you can play at your shop.

 

Blightsteel Colossus Silent-Blade Oni

Blightsteel Colossus
Silent-Blade Oni

Blightsteel Colossus has taken the jump to $15 (up from $10 last week, and way up from a low of $4 when it was in Standard) which is not surprising since it is one of the Timmy-ist cards ever created. I mean, look at how awesome that guy is! One hit and you’re dead! No wonder legacy MUD runs a copy or two that it ramps up to, equips a Lightning Greaves to, and goes to town. But we know the real reason why Blightsteel is so high, because of Commander and all the casuals that want to Tinker it out in their 60 card decks. Keep a good watch on Blightsteel; I don’t think it is done rising in price. I don’t think it can’t go too much higher than the the current $15 it commands but with Modern you never know. It could become the win condition of a random Woo Brew again.

On the other hand, Silent-Blade Oni is strictly a casual card with the popular Ninjutsu effect that players love to see from time to time. He has increased slightly to $5 but I would not be trading for extra copies of this guy any time soon. He is strictly a casual card and won’t see much growth in the short term because he isn’t played in any competitive formats. There are better options to trade for that have more potential to go up further.

Wrap Up

Lots have cards have changed across basically every format, and the consensus is that these prices are here to stay with the possible exception being Cataclysm (though I am discovering that price memory is a very strong force within the Magic community which prevents overpriced cards from coming down faster than they should). Expect all the cards I’ve mentioned to maintain their new prices for the foreseeable future, and expect one or two them to even keep trending upwards.

EDH Bannings and Fun

By: Cliff Daigle

I do not consider myself proficient at very many things, but I am very good with the concepts of EDH: the methods of deck construction, the spirit of the format, and the wide range of things that are allowed in the search for fun. Staff of Domination

Any financier, casual or professional, has to understand the casual formats in order to grok why on earth some cards have the price they do. It’s important to understand that while Magic has all sorts of constructed awesomeness, it’s still mainly a friendly, casual, kitchen-table game. In fact, that’s been the key to its success: appealing to such a wide swath of players. Constructed formats cause price spikes, while casual stars see slow and steady growth.

Today, I want to help you understand a little more about EDH and its principles, so you can see why the Rules Committee bans and unbans what it does. I gained good value picking up Kokusho before its unbanning, and I made a little selling into the Staff of Domination hype at its unbanning.

At its heart, Commander is all about interaction and experience. It was put together by judges who wanted to play swingy, splashy, uninhibited Magic. It is a way to unwind and to explore the quirky side ideas that have come up in this game.

There are some common tropes. Every EDH player considers a tribal deck at some point. Every player thinks about random deck ideas: an all-creature, or no-creature, or only certain sorts of art, or a deck designed to win via infinite combos. We often give thought to foiling out a deck, or making it all foreign, or if you’re Judge Emeritus Sheldon Menery, you embark on a foil Italian deck.

I would be remiss if I didn’t include Cube players with EDH players. There’s a lot of similarities, from the number of certain cards needed to the desire to make your interpretation unique.

One of the key features of Commander decks, and therefore a financially relevant idea, is that all sorts of play styles are possible. Are you a griefer? A combo savant? Do you only cast spells that cost more than eight mana? Whatever you’re into, EDH can provide. The founders recognized that fun is defined very differently from person to person, and don’t try to legislate that. Sakura-Tribe Elder

What they do legislate is imbalance, but they do so very selectively. Primeval Titan and his cousin Sylvan Primordial allow for huge mana gains, and are easy to abuse.

The issue that comes up when there’s a banning in EDH is this: they don’t try to ban infinite-combo cards. There’s no way to ban all of those without a banlist a mile long. Plus, they want to allow you that way of playing, if you and your play group enjoy that. What they tend to come down on are cards that are impossible to use ‘fairly’.

Allow me this example. Before PT got banned, it was in most green decks. As was Green Sun’s Zenith. I know that I would cast GSZ for three and get Sakura-Tribe Elder, or scrape by until I got to seven mana to get the Titan. It was simply the best thing I could do, and everyone at the table knew it. Getting the Titan or the Primordial out is such a huge swing, and sets up “waiting to die” board states.

Whenever a card is banned, the refrain goes up. “Why wasn’t [CARDNAME] banned too?!?!” Very often in forums, the cited card is Palinchron. This thing exists for no reason except to generate infinite mana. All you need is one land that generates two or more mana, and you’re infinite. It is not banned because infinite shenanigans is part of the game. Plus, with Palinchron, an instant-speed kill spell with the untap on the stack will solve the problem. There’s too many infinite combos to hate them all away. (Hi there, Kiki-Jiki!)

So what’s the financial bonus to knowing how these casual formats work?

The most relevant idea is that these players aren’t getting cards to trade. We trade for or buy a card in order to put it in a deck and keep it there. This cuts down on the number of that card in circulation, and inflates the price.

Case in point: the San Diego Comic-Con Planeswalkers. There is no hard data on the number made available, but those who got them either flipped them for immediate profit, are holding them to get more money later, or kept them for decks. It’s possible that some are simply showpieces in a collection, but these are not going to be found in random binders. Wild Growth

If you have one, you’re either playing it or keeping it until you’re ready to sell it. There are very few out there to be had. I’ve got an SDCC Garruk, and it’s in a deck and it’s staying there until I am desperate enough to sell pieces from my favorite EDH deck.

Another salient point is how often we build random casual decks and then just keep them in a box on a shelf. It’s not always worth the hassle to take decks apart. The high point for me was 15 EDH decks and that’s a lot to deal with. Several just sat unused for months at a time–few of us will get to play 15 Commander games in less than a month.

It’s a phenomenon not limited to Commander, though. We have a habit of putting old decks aside. I have a deck I built in 1999, jokingly called Turbo-Thallid, using those Fallen Empires cards to great extent, and using Earthcraft and Wild Growth and Fungal Bloom to power out lots of Saprolings. Thallids have gotten much better since, but I haven’t updated the deck in fourteen years. It’s a pet deck, and how would I even try to explain what format it’s for to new people? It’s not even Legacy-legal!

Rest assured, though: Earthcraft will eventually get unbanned in Legacy, and I’ll be happy to sell into that hype.

Where EDH shines as a format is when people find a common power level. If all of your friends enjoy counterspell wars and copying Time Warp, more power to you folks. If your Commander games end up as Giants vs. Faeries vs. Elves vs. Beasts, that’s awesome too. There’s no one way to play it.

What surprises many tournament players is how often Commander decks are deliberately underpowered. It’s more than skipping dual lands and fetch lands. It’s about leaving out cards that end the game abruptly, or lead to twenty-minute turns. In my Experiment Kraj deck, I don’t have any abilities that tap to add mana, because I have lots of untapping abilities. It’s no fun to me if I deliberately and consistently go infinite.

These games are not always about winning. These games are about the experience and the interaction. Mr. Menery said it best: “The secret of the format is not breaking it.”

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY