Standard Lives!

With the World Championship in the books, we see a jump in a couple of the weekend’s best performers: Alarund’s Epiphany and Ranger Class. No matter what is happening at your local store, Standard cards are starting to get back on the move and back on the map. I’ve been extremely hesitant to get in deep on Standard because of the lack of paper play, but here we are, with prices jumping.

As a result, it’s time to evaluate Standard cards! Let’s see what we can do with what we have, especially as rotation just happened a month ago, and we’ve got a new set coming out in a month. For some Standard cards, it’s time to sell into the hype or before rotation sinks their value. For others, it’s time to think about when I want to buy in on some current Standard cards. A third category I’m thinking about is things I want to buy in anticipation of them getting big in Standard at some point.

I’ve written before that the paradigm is to be out of a card by Valentine’s Day, six-seven months before it rotates. That’s the way to be sure you maximize profit and minimize the risk of your card losing value as rotation approaches. So what cards are we getting rid of?

Goldspan Dragon ($40) – The graph says a whole lot:

Goldspan is top-notch right now, and rightfully so. It’s a mythic, getting played as a 3- and 4-of in top-tier decks, and it’s even in 9,000 Commander decks online. The Standard demand is what’s caused the recent jump, and now is the time to sell. It’s possible that this card ticks up a little, but locking in profits right now is the strategy that will serve you best. Let someone else take the risk and hope for $50, when you can solidify the gains you’ve already gotten.

Alrund’s Epiphany ($15) – Again, let’s see what the data says:

Oh look, it’s a card that’s doubled in price recently, and is even getting talk of a banning. Extra turns cards will always have a place in Commander, but the ones that exile themselves are just not as popular. Time Warp is in 12,000 decks, but Epiphany is in less than 4,000 of them. This is a card I just don’t want to have around as rotation nears, and if you bought anywhere under $10, I’d seriously consider selling while it’s at its peak. Again, there’s a chance that your cards will climb a little higher before rotation starts to sink them, so you have to weigh your greed against your guaranteed profits.

Esika’s Chariot ($5) – The great news here is that if you bought this anytime before October, you’re likely sitting pretty:

This is just a regular rare, not a mythic, so you’re looking at substantially more copies and a much much lower demand from Commander players. This isn’t going to hit $7.50 before it starts trending downwards, so I strongly suggest you take what profit you can from these cards and move on to better targets.

Prismari Command ($7.50) – There’s a case to be made that you’ve missed the top of the market on this card, but not by a lot:

Even if you’re not selling at $10, the card has likely doubled from when you bought in and that’s a lovely place to be stepping out from. The main reason why I want to be selling here is that the drivers of demand here are Standard and Historic, one of which is an online-only format! I’m looking to unload all the copies I have of this before another deck comes along and this trickles back down to $2 or $3.

Ranger Class ($13) – One more graph:

Oh yeah, that’s a curve that screams for a sell-off. Remember, too, that AFR cards have the shortest lifespan in Standard, at just over a year. There would have to be an amazing confluence of factors to make this go back up to $20, and there’s no guarantee that this stays as high as it is. Commander demand has sucked up some number of copies, as that last ability is GAS in 100-card formats, but let’s look at another four-of in the Mono-Green lists, Old-Growth Troll:

I’m not saying that OGT is a better card than Ranger Class, I’m saying that the floor for Ranger Class is a lot lower than you think it could be, and it’s time to sell off.

One set of cards that I’m going to be keeping my eye on are the MDFCs from Zendikar Rising. I’m keenly aware that they would be an excellent candidate for their own Secret Lair, and that’s making me wait on purchasing them for a while. Plus, I’m really hoping that they creep downwards in price as rotation approaches. Emeria’s Call is in the least decks, at just under 7k, but Sea Gate Restoration is in nearly double that many. Most importantly, though, is that these are pretty much freerolls in Commander. Take a current land, slot in the MDFC, and have your choice of a land early or a powerful spell later. 

Finally, I’ve been thinking about Midnight Hunt in Standard. There’s two years until this set rotates, and that means there’s a long long time for these cards to pick up. We don’t have a lot of tournament data yet, but there’s already a couple of cards I want to get bricks of around Christmastime:

Intrepid Adversary – A mythic, a four-of in the White Weenie decks, a card that is okay at two mana, very good at four mana, and HOLY CRAP at six mana, this is a card I’m hoping to get in the $5 range.

Moonveil Regent – Already under $5, this is in a sweet spot at four mana. Because it can be the top end for an aggressive deck, or the card that enables maximum churn, it’s got a lot of potential. Hopefully this approaches $2 in the next couple of months.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Unlocked Pro Trader: The Spirit Of Commander

READERS!

I don’t want to talk about the literal spirit of Commander. I don’t even really want to call it Commander, since I like calling it EDH more, but since so many people are new and don’t even remember the good old days, I will, begrudgingly, call it Commander. I’ll come clean, the title is a stupid pun because we know we’re getting a tribal Vampire and tribal Spirits deck in Breaking Dawn or whatever and we should be ready for both.

We haven’t gotten confirmation that the deck will be Blue/White that I have seen (I’m sure there’s an article on the mothership or something) but based on the last 2 decks being two color and tribal, we can infer we’re getting RB Vampires and UW Spirits. On that basis, I decided to do what I did last week and delve this time into UW Spirits decks on EDHREC to see if there are any cards we should be buying in advance. A lot of the Spirits cards are reprintable and are nichey, but they have Modern applicability, too, so it’s possible we have additional chances for growth. That said, Modern applicability makes them even more reprintable. There probably isn’t a better target than last week’s Bloodline Keeper, but we can take a look anyhow.

In case you don’t feel confident navigating the site or feel like you pay me to do stuff so I should do it for you, here is the full Spirits tribal page on EDHREC. There are some non-Azorius cards here, which we can ignore, but it doesn’t suck to know how people are building everything. Let’s get into it.

This is… a mess. It’s pretty clear I should focus on a UW spirits commander. But which ones?

I can already tell that I am more likely to uncover some busted Kamigawa block tech in a Celestial Kirin deck than I am to find a good spec in the Ranar deck, but I’m going to do my due diligence anyway. Kykar is a combo deck that has Spirit tribal lords in it because why not swing for 3 with your tokens in a pinch, but I doubt it’s built like the new deck will be. Still going to look.

Let’s rule some stuff off right off the top, OK? I would bet money Supreme Phantom is in the deck, ditto for Rattlechains, Selfless Spirit etc. We can buy anything from that list that isn’t in the deck when the decklist is spoiled, but we’re not making money on Drogskol Captain any more than we did off of… the Dimir Zombie one. Diregraf, that’s the one. I am honestly more likely to lose money with a reprint of Skyclave Apparitions that are in a box somewhere that I will forget to sell in time than I am to make money with Shackelgeist. I think there IS a card that’s a couple bucks now that goes to like $8 if it’s not reprinted, at least in the short term, which means you need to buy now.

At a $2.50 buy-in, which is like $0.50 over CK’s buylist, this seems lowish risk. This is an easy dump to a buylist for $5 a copy in 2 months if we don’t catch a reprint. I don’t think there are too many other opportunities from that whole cohort of “Modern Spirits deck” cards. Spell Queller maybe? I like this as a medium-risk pickup. If it’s in the deck, you likely take a bath, but you may be able to panic dump to a tardy buylist site if you see it’s reprinted? I don’t know, I don’t react quickly enough to try and get others to subsidize my mistakes, I put them in a box, forget about them, they go up, I don’t sell, they get another reprint then I find them an cry. Your technique might be different.

While we’re talking about Spell Queller, I actually don’t hate it.

Queller isn’t getting cheaper barring a reprint, and with the USA deciding that not spreading Covid is boring, we’re likely looking at a return to sanctioned Modern, which could perk this back up. I like it at $3.50.

The Ranar page isn’t turning much up, so let’s get creative.

That huge spike in 2019 was me making you all a crapton of money when I saw that Teysa decks were going to make use of this. I am not going to make you “buying in at $0.50” money anymore, but I am going to make you some money if this isn’t reprinted. It’s actually not the most synergistic with Spirits in all cases, so the commander may matter, but with multiple Legendary creatures in the deck, I think this synergizing poorly with the main commander means it’s less likely to get reprinted but you still have chances for it to go in another deck. I like this for those reasons. I realize the decks are finalized and some people know the contents, but I’m still guessing here and I guess this is real solid at $5.

Rooting around in Cloudhoof Kirin’s cards, I found this bizarre gem. It’s actually super strong but 6 mana sort of bites. I think random stuff like this could be in play, but if you look at the Zombies stuff that went up, it was $5 cards going to $10 rather than $0.75 cards going to $2, and there aren’t a ton of $5 spirits. The issue with trying to find secret good tech in the Kamigawa Spirits is that all of the Azorius ones are like 6 mana. No wonder everyone hated Kamigawa block at the time.

This has turned into a bit of a bust. One thing I can do is look at what I think the commander’s abilities might be and try to see if there is anything that could synergize with… a thing I’m making up. It sounds lower value than I think it is, especially when I type ellipses.

For example, if something puts Spirits from your hand into play for free, which could be solid, bigger, more expensive Spirits are in play. The upside? Those dumb Kamigawa ones are better. The downside? Anything really good is likely reprinted in the deck.

If it manages to dodge a reprint and if it is at all decent with a commander like that, Drogskol Reaver is a solid card on its way to $8-$10 that could be a real player in that deck. A reprint likely knocks this down forever, but something like this seems necessary to beat the Vampires deck. Don’t forget, the decks were designed to play against each other and the Vampires deck likely swarms fast so it might be necessary to have some lifegain because spirits are all like 3 mana 3/1 fliers and it sucks to block a 1 mana 2/2 with those. I think Reaver is just a good card and people seem to like it enough for it to go from bulk rare status 5 years ago to over $5 now.

Kataki is in the process of going off, but if you can get copies under $10, see that you do. I wish I’d thought of it sooner.

That does it for me this week. In general, the cards that did the best from the Zombie reprint were $5ish cards and there are a few of them, albeit with decent reprint risk. Still, the Wilhelt deck didn’t reprint cards we thought they might, and they hosed some others’ Rooftop Storm specs. All I know is that you really only need one solid card to make some money with and while there aren’t a ton of great options here, you only really need one. I personally like Hallowed Spiritkeeper – something about cashing in on the same spec multiple times makes me happier than hitting with something new. That does it for me – until next time!

More Modern

It’s been a few weeks since I took a proper look at the Modern format, so here I am back at it again with the Modern content this week. The metagame is still pretty diverse and looks to be healthy, so read on for what I think you should be picking up this week.


Spreading Seas (Foil)

Price in Europe: €12 ($14)
Price in US: $???
Possible price: $50

UW(x) control has been hovering around the top of the Modern metagame for a few weeks now with no sign of dropping, and that’s partly because it’s got some of the best answers in the format right now. With Prismatic Ending, Counterspell and Solitude in its arsenal there isn’t much that the deck can’t deal with, and Spreading Seas has been a consistent tool for the deck to battle against things like Urza’s Saga, Tron decks and greedy 3+ colour manabases.

I was quite surprised when I realised that Spreading Seas has only ever had a single printing, all the way back in original Zendikar (not Battle for Zendikar, Zendikar Rising or the yet-to-come Zendikar Resurrections). That means that, for a relatively popular Modern card that only has one printing 12 years ago, foils are now getting incredibly hard to come by. There aren’t any NM foils on TCGPlayer and the only LP foils are at $70 and $100 – pretty ridiculous prices for this little common.

Europe has a few more than that though, with a few NM foils under €15 and a good handful more under €20. I think that buying these under €15 is an easy flip over to the US to list on TCGPlayer for $40-50. Nobody’s paying $70 for LP foils of this, but if they see NM foils under $50 then they could well be tempted to snap a couple up for their Modern deck.

Lurrus of the Dream Den (EA)

Price today: $15
Possible price: $30

I think it’s time to talk about Lurrus again. I’ll try not to repeat too much of what’s been said before, but Lurrus is still a hugely dominating force in Modern and I don’t think that’s going to change any time soon. Three of the top decks in the format (Burn, Hammer Time and Jund) are playing Lurrus as a companion, and bans have been talked about quite a bit for this card. There’s been some discussion in the ProTrader Discord about it, and I’m of the mind that despite the power level and prevalence of this card, I don’t think that it’s ripe for a ban. It still allows for a variety of decks to be played and can be dealt with fairly handily by sideboard cards, and so isn’t oppressive enough to warrant a ban at the moment.

Despite its continued popularity, there’s been a dip in price over the past few weeks and I think now is a good time to capitalise on that. EA non-foils have dropped down to around $15, having been over $25 earlier in the summer, and I think that hitting that $25+ price point again won’t be any trouble at all for this card. A good data point here is that Lurrus EA non-foil is still around €25 ($29) in Europe, where Modern is possibly the most played format, and so I think that the TCG prices will reflect those in Europe before long.

Munitions Expert (Foil)

Price today: $5
Possible price: $15

Something a little more under the radar for today’s last pick, Goblin tribal has been putting up a decent showing in some Modern results over the past couple of weeks and I think it’s worth taking a look at. It’s utilising Ignoble Hierarch as some extra acceleration alongside the classic Æther Vial, which makes for a slightly trickier manabase but the fact that Hierarch is a Goblin means that cards like Cavern of Souls and Unclaimed Territory are very useful.

Munitions Expert is a consistent four-of in these lists, as it can pick off both creatures and planeswalkers that are getting in the way of pushing damage through, and having Flash for when you don’t have an Æther Vial in play can be huge.

Despite only being an uncommon, there are only seven listings left for NM foils of this on TCGPlayer. If you want foils for personal use then I’d snap them up sharpish, and a playset or two to spec on definitely won’t hurt you. There are a few more around the $4-5 mark in Europe too if you can get those, and if this deck takes off in Modern then I expect this to be $15 before long.


David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

The World Championship Decks and You

The World Championships are this weekend, and the format is Standard. Given that we don’t really have GP-level events yet (though SCG and CFB are trying!) and the maze to professional play is confusing, I normally wouldn’t be paying attention to Standard.

However, it’s a harbinger. I want to look for two things from these decklists, and from this event: What’s powerful from Standard that’s in Midnight Hunt (because that’s a set that’s legal for the next TWO years!) and what’s underpriced that’s poised to take a jump. Let’s dive in, shall we?

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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