The final mythic rare in Magic Origins has been spoiled (and sadly also Peter Mohrbacher’s last few pieces for Magic) and today we shall put the Magic Origins mythics under a financial microscope. First off, I would highly recommend checking out Magic Origins reviews from my fellow MTGPrice writers, Jared Yost and Derek Madlem. All the more for the fact that we have differing opinions on certain cards (I’m looking at you Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy).
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One of the things I am excited about during spoiler season is spotting Modern-playable cards. It pays to be able to identify Modern-playables early on. Take, for example, two recent cards that shook up Modern in a big way: Kolaghan’s Command and Collected Company. Kolaghan’s Command, which saw only a bit Standard action in Mardu builds, was available at under $3 for two whole months. Collected Company was the cornerstone of Standard Green-based Aggro builds but it remained at its release price of $5 for a month-and-a-half before breaching into the double digit price region.
Modern has evolved into an eternal format that rivals Legacy in diversity and depth. Over the last month-and-a half, we saw four major events taking place in four different regions, with four distinct metagames. After nearly four years of existence and a slew of unpopular bannings which in hindsight were wise decisions, Modern has finally become the eternal format that we’ve always wanted. An eternal format where we can always play our favorite decks (unless yours is Birthing Pod), a format diverse enough for most decks to have a shot at taking home the grand prize, a format with a number of tier-one decks large enough to rival the cast of Game of Thrones. And more importantly, an eternal format without card availability issues.
Modern has never been more popular than it is today, which is why evaluating a card’s playability in Modern has become an essential aspect in the MTG finance reviews of new sets. Today’s article is going to discuss a few fundamental characteristics of cards that are able to break it in Modern. Seasoned competitive Modern players would likely be familiar with these points, but players or financiers who do not dabble much in the format may not be. This article is targeted at the latter groups.
Conveniently, there is a rather controversial Magic Origins mythic that was spoiled last week which we could use as a case study to find out what it takes for a card to break it in Modern:
From StarCityGames.com’s 23 June spoiler article.
One of the more polarizing Magic Origins card spoiled, reactions ranged from, “They’ve reprinted Timetwister!” to, “It’s Time Reversal2.0!” More importantly, the majority of the discussion generated by Day’s Undoing centered around its impact in Modern. After all, the last time Wizards reprinted a Power 9 card, it broke the format and fell under the banhammer within a few months.
Does Day’s Undoing has the makings of a Modern-playable card? The questions below will help put things into perspective.
Is Day’s Undoing Competitively Costed?
The answer is an obvious yes for Day’s Undoing, but I chose to open with this question to highlight the first aspect of a card to look at when evaluating a new card’s Modern playability. In the same vein as Legacy, Modern is a highly efficient format and the rule of thumb for a card to see Modern play is that it should cost no more than four mana.
In a format where Remand is the most popular counterspell, Path to Exile the most popular spot removal, and 4/5 creatures cost one or two mana, attempting to resolve a high-casting-cost spell that does not win you the game immediately is just asking to be wrecked. Even at four mana, a spell has to pretty much do everything for it to make the cut in Modern, like Cryptic Command or Siege Rhino.
That does not mean that any cards that cost more than four are unlikely to see Modern action, but cards that cost five mana and above have to fulfill one of the following to have a shot at making it in Modern:
Have you ever wondered why Standard all-star Primeval Titan does not see Modern play outside of decks that runs lands as their win conditions, such as certain Scapeshiftvariants and Amulet Bloom? Even though Primeval Titan generates insane value upon resolution, tapping six mana for a creature that is vulnerable to both Path to Exile and Remand exposes you to the risk of experiencing a significant tempo drawback.
Day’s Undoing is obviously within the casting cost restriction of Modern, so let’s go on to the next aspect of Day’s Undoing that is much talked about.
Is Day’s Undoing Part of a Two-Card Combo that Wins You the Game Upon Resolution?
One of the most-discussed aspect of Day’s Undoing is that you get a pretty good impression of Timetwister in Modern by coupling it with one of Quicken, Leyline of Anticipation, or Vedalken Orrery, but does it make Day’s Undoing good enough to be played in Modern? There are two questions to ask to determine if an interaction is powerful enough to work in Modern:
Is it a two-card combo that wins you the game upon resolution?
If the the interaction requires more than two cards, are the individual components powerful cards independently?
Most of the tier-one combos in Modern are two-card combos that win you the game upon resolution. Splinter Twin plus Pestermite. Ad Nauseam plus Angel’s Grace. Goryo’s Vengeance plus Griselbrand. There are plenty of other cool two-card combos, like Grand Architect plus Pili-Pala, but what what good is infinite mana if it does not win you the game?
The Kitchen Finks/Murderous Redcapplus Melira, Sylvok Outcast/Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit plus Viscera Seer interaction is the only tier-one Modern combo that requires more than two cards, and it only works in the format because most of the pieces are Modern-playable cards by themselves or have multiple interactions with other cards in the deck. Kitchen Finks is one of the best value three-drop in Modern, and Viscera Seer serves as a sac outlet that allows for plays like permanently exiling a creature with Fiend Hunter or turning Voice of Resurgence into a huge elemental in response to Path to Exile. Seer also helps sift through the deck to find combo pieces you may still be missing.
While Day’s Undoing paired with any of the three cards mentioned above gives you a Modern Timetwister, that interaction does not win you the game. Even worse, Quicken, Vedalken Orrery, and Leyline of Anticipation are cards that would not see play in Modern on their own merits.
Does it Really Fit into an Existing Archetype?
Collected Company by Franz Vohwinkel.
Collected Company was the card that Elves needed to ascend into tier-one playability. Kolaghan’s Command significantly bolsters Grixis decks as a highly flexible card that is useful in all situations, in the same vein as Cryptic Command. Treasure Cruise gave Blue-Red Delver an efficient way to refill its gas to out-grind the midrange Rock decks.
Players much better than me put forth compelling arguments for Day’s Undoing as a means for aggro decks to refuel their hands, but I am not entirely convinced. While I don’t agree with their perspective on Day’s Undoing, I would highly recommend reading their points to come to a conclusion yourself.
Hyper-aggressive decks (like Affinity or Burn) that are able to empty their hands pretty fast theoretically reap more value out of Day’s Undoing’s symmetrical draw effect. While your opponents may lose more cards from their pre-Undoing hands, the fact that they too get a fresh seven means that they will get to reload their arsenal of answers for your threats.
As an aggro deck, I don’t think you would want run out a Day’s Undoing against the majority of the top decks in today’s metagame. You wouldn’t want Jund, Junk, or Grixis to draw more removal after you’ve teased out the ones in their opening hand and subsequent draws. The fact that Day’s Undoing ends your turn as part of its resolution means that your opponent gets to decimate your board with his or her newly drawn hand first. You don’t want opposing creature-heavy decks like Abzan Company, Merfolk, or Elves to draw more creatures or lords to bolster their sides of the board. And you certainly do not want it against Twin decks: imagine them casting a Pestermite in response to your Day’s Undoing, untapping, and then going off. Not good.
The same applies to arguments about using Day’s Undoing in combo decks. You would be refueling your opponent’s counterspells and hand disruption.
Furthermore, the fact that Day’s Undoing costs three may render it too prohibitive to be included in Burn. Treasure Cruise and Deathrite Shaman were adopted by Burn as they both can be cast for just one mana, and Atarka’s Command is only two.
Verdict
I think Day’s Undoing is unlikely to see Modern play. It is not part of a two-card “oops, I win” combo, it does not seem to fit into any existing archetype, and it is very unlikely to spawn a whole new archetype as it is not an engine card.
Day’s Undoing is currently available for preorder between $17 to $20. My call would be to stay far, far away from it and sell or trade off any copies you open at the prerelease right away. I think Day’s Undoing will soon join its buddies Time Reversal and Temporal Mastery as cards that tried so hard to be a Power 9, but failed miserably.
The only upside about Day’s Undoing is that the card solidified Jonas De Ro as one of my new favorite Magic artists.
Do share your thoughts on this card and its breakdown in the comments section below or catch me on Twitter at @thguoheng.
I never cared about the value of playmats until Grand Prix Kuala Lumpur last year. No, it wasn’t the event’s playmat that spurred my interest in the value of playmats. Of all the Chris Rahn art available to choose from, they had to pick Ashen Rider.
What sparked my interest in the financial potential of playmats was a binder grinder from a neighbouring country at the event. He was going around the floor offering players RM80 ($21) for their Grand Prix playmat, which covered a good portion of the RM120 ($32) entry fee, and the whole entry fee if they were willing to throw in the promo Batterskull. Apparently there is a demand for those back at his LGS. That was when it occurred to me that playmats are worth more than I initially assumed (a.k.a. nothing). I know, that is probably common knowledge among Grand Prix veterans by now.
I’ve accrued a couple of playmats from the few Grand Prixes I’ve attended and won a few in tournaments, but they pretty much served the purpose of being the layer that stands between my Snapcaster Mage and utter condition oblivion from being tapped and dragged across the harsh surface of whatever tables I play on. Double-sleeving only protects your beloved Modern staples so much.
After Grand Prix Kuala Lumpur, I began to pay attention to the financial value of playmats. I also started taking better care of mine. No more chucking them in my bag like a rag. Heck, if spindown dices could be worth up to $30 and life counters up to $90, it should be no surprise that certain playmats are going to be worth something. It seems that everything that has to do with Magic could potentially end up as a collectible. Even an empty Alpha deck box could sell for $35.
These days, acquiring collectible playmats has become a side-quest of mine in Magic. I didn’t bother attending the Magic 2015 and Khans of Tarkir Game Days because the champion playmats were mediocre at best, but I grinded the whole weekend during Fate Reforged‘s Game Day to obtain the coveted Ugin playmat. Getting my hands on the Vendilion Clique playmat and the special playmats at Grand Prix Chiba was one of my main goals at the Grand Prix. I came back from Chiba with more playmats than the number of Magic games I’ve played over that weekend.
As of writing, there do not seem to be much information available about the mtgfinance of playmats. This article stems from my research into playmats in order to help me decide if a playmat is worth getting or not (or in the case of Grand Prix Chiba, worth lining up for an hour at 7 a.m.). It’s a rudimentary framework which I use to gauge how much a playmat could potentially be worth, in a manner more objective than ascribing value to a playmat based on whether I find the art delightful or not.
As the majority of playmats are given out at Grand Prixes, let’s use Grand Prix playmats as case studies. Plus, it is easier to compare prices for playmats with similar supply level, rather than compare playmats given out at different sort of events like Pro Tour playmats or Game Day playmats.
Beauty is Subjective
It’s hard to judge how much of a role a playmat’s aesthetics plays in determining its price. While I personally thought it was disappointing that I got an Ashen Rider playmat at Grand Prix Kuala Lumpur, there are some players out there who really like the playmat:
$29 for that playmat? I wouldn’t even pay $5 for it. These days my Grand Prix Kuala Lumpur playmat serves as the playmat that I put under my Ugin Game Day playmat on rare occasions when I take it out. However, there are a subset of players/collectors who obviously thought that the playmat is worth a bit more than I did, which emphasises the importance of having a less subjective method to evaluate a playmat’s worth.
The Artist Factor?
Seeing that playmats do not exert an impact on your game, it is not hard to assume that a playmat’s price could be driven by the name of its artist. After all, in the art world, artist name seems to be the primary factor that drives the price of art pieces to ridiculous heights.
Could it be that the winning bidder of the $29 Ashen Rider playmat above is a big fan of Chris Rahn? Let’s take a look at another playmat featuring a Chris Rahn art, this time an artwork of a card that is an EDH staple.
The Sword of Fire and Ice playmat was given out at the first Modern Masters Grand Prix at Las Vegas in 2013. Only 1,000 were given out at the event. The Sword of Fire and Ice playmat is more valuable than the Ashen Rider one, but how much of that added value stemmed from the card’s playability rather than the artist name?
Or the Card’s Popularity?
Let’s take a look at another example:
The Legacy Grand Prix at New Jersey last November featured the definitive Legacy card on its playmat and even after half-a-year, the playmat is in demand and is worth quite a bit (it’s going for $75 on Star City Games).
An interesting point about the Brainstorm playmat is that while the card is the quintessential Legacy card, the artist (Tony) DiTerlizzi has not been drawing for Magic since Planeshift in 2001. Yet the Brainstorm playmat was going for around the same price as Chris Rahn’s Sword of Fire and Ice playmat and Chris Rahn is one of the most popular contemporary Magic artist.
By the looks of it, the primary factor in determining a playmat’s value is likely to be the popularity of the card which art is featured on the playmat, rather than the popularity of the artist. Take the Grand Prix Richmond Eternal Witness playmat for example.
Terese Nielsen is probably one of the most beloved artist in Magic. Eternal Witness was witnessed in Birthing Pod decks before Pod got banned and is only found in Collected Company decks today. Played in Modern, but not exactly an iconic card in the format.
Note: The best offer price which those playmats were sold for were $70, $62 and $75 from top to bottom. The best offer price was viewed by running the original listing’s URL through watchcount.com’s search feature.
Swords of Plowshares is one of the most-played card in Legacy so it’s no surprise that the playmat is worth more than the Eternal Witness playmat from the same artist. I’m tempted to say that the Swords to Plowshares playmat was selling for more than the Brainstorm playmat on the merit of being a Terese Nielsen piece, but the fact that it was from a Japanese Grand Prix may also be a factor.
Conclusion
Grand Prix playmats are exclusive to each Grand Prix and they are unlikely to be ‘reprinted’ outside of their respective events, making them a bit like reserved list cards. Bear that in mind the next time you attend a Grand Prix that gives out a sweet playmat, like the Mox Opal playmat that is going to be handed out at Grand Prix Singapore this weekend:
From the official site for Grand Prix Singapore 2015: cleventsgp.com
If you’re attending Grand Prix Singapore this weekend, my wild guesstimate of the playmat’s eBay sales price would be at the very least $30, with an average selling price of $40. I doubt it would hit the heights of Swords to Plowshares, but it should be able to fetch a price tag higher than the Eternal Witness one, based on Mox Opal’s popularity in Modern as a four-of in the definitive aggro deck of the format.
I hope this article has shed some light on evaluating a playmat’s value. Do share your thoughts and experiences in the comment section below, or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.
The Modern season is in full swing and as with every Modern season, there are bound to be multiple Modern cards spiking. It is easy to point fingers at perceived speculators buying out cards like Blood Moon or Jund mythics, but a more likely explanation is that we were watching market correction taking place in respond to the increased demand from an expanding Modern player base, as Corbin Hosler (@Chosler88) laid out in his excellent article a few days back. After all, new Modern players looking to grind the Modern PPTQs or Grand Prixes are likely to have to acquire their Snapcaster Mages, Cryptic Commands, Blood Moons etc if they want to run a tier one deck.
The combo-infested caterpillar that was Modern in 2011 has, through an unpopular series of bannings, metamorphosed into the colorful, vibrant butterfly that is Modern in 2015. Modern is becoming more like Legacy, where the top 8 archetypes differ from week to week and from region to region. A format where familiarity with your deck far outweighs trying to out-level the metagame as most tier one and tier 1.5 decks stand a chance of making top 8.
A common complain I hear about Modern is the format’s increasingly high barrier of entry, especially after the recent spate of price spikes. However a fact that is often overlooked is how a lot of these Modern staples in question were only mildly expensive for a long time before their recent spike. Snapcaster Mage was hovering around $25 for the majority of his life since he was printed in Innistrad and he was hovering around $35 for the better part of last year, before moving up to $40 this February. Blood Moon tanked to $7 when it was reprinted in Modern Masters and went on a slow but steady growth over the last two years. It only broke $20 at the end of last year and remained so until March this year. I can go on and on with examples, but you get the gist.
In a way, buying into Modern is very much like buying into Legacy, as a friend and fellow mtgfinance enthusiast Reza (@rezaaba) once suggested to me. Like Legacy, one does not simply build a Modern deck within a day. Buying into Modern is a long-term effort that requires you to acquire key components strategically.
That approach formed the idea behind this series of articles where we examine top Modern decks and find out which of their components are in their cheap phase now. I use the term cheap phase rather than cheap as the cards discussed in this article may not necessarily fit the definition of cheap, but they are in the price trough segment of their price cycle, and is probably the best time to get your own copies if you have been holding out. For example, I don’t think we are going to see Dark Confidant drop any lower than the $46 he is currently at, after the release of Modern Masters 2015. $46 would pale in comparison with his price two years down the road.
Let’s start with the top two decks from last weekend’s Modern Grand Prix at Charlotte.
Collecting Elves
Elves by Michael Malone.
The deck that took down the Grand Prix (though it would be interesting to see how the games would have panned out had the opposing Blue-Red Twin deck not been given a game loss for decklist error) and one of the new Modern archetypes spawned by the existence of Collected Company. A couple of the deck’s key components spiked hard after the Grand Prix, chiefly Ezuri, Renegade Leader who tripled in price regardless of the fact that he has two printings, and Cavern of Soulswhich was due for a spike anyway.
I wouldn’t necessarily call Collected Companya good pick-up right now as its price is currently buoyed by the Modern hype surrounding it, but there are still a few key pieces of Elves that I think are going to be worth much more in the future.
After all these month’s I’m still calling Chord as a pick-up.
A number of my fellow MTGPrice writers called Chord of Calling a good pick-up. I myself wrote about Chord a few times, when Chord was $4. While Chord’s price bumped up slightly after Elves’ victory, $6 is still a good buy-in price, considering how Chord was once a $40 card. Chord is also found in multiples in Abzan Company. Modern rares that are played in multiple copies in multiple archetypes are going to be worth more than $6.
The next card was brought to my attention when I saw Corbin’s tweet:
The link goes to the TCGPlayer page for the card below:
Nettle Sentinel was under $1 until last weekend. Now that Elves are a thing in Modern, Nettle Sentinel’s price shot up to $2.59. Yet I still think Nettle Sentinel has room to grow. Frankly I am surprised that a Legacy Elves centrepiece from a small set printed seven years ago could remain under $1 for so long. Now with the added demand from Modern, on top of the fact that Nettle Sentinel only has a single printing, picking up your own copies of Nettle Sentinel for under $3 does not seem to shabby.
The Evergreen Blue-Red Twin
If there’s one deck that is the quintessential deck of Modern, it would be Blue-Red Twin. Twin was one of the few tier one decks that emerged in Modern’s first incarnation back in 2011 and remained a tier one deck up till today. It took down two out of the four Modern Pro Tours, survived the slew of bannings which killed off more tier one archetypes than I can recall, and some say Twin is the sort of deck Wizards likes to see in the format: a turn four deck that is also interacts with the opponent.
Wesley See’s Blue-Red Twin
While the Twin archetype has evolved from it’s initial combo-orientated game plan, adopting a tempo-based strategy with an infinite combo in which the opponent has to respect at all times (and together with it a playset of Snapcaster Mage), the core cards of the deck remained the same. Surprisingly, Splinter Twin‘s price only broke the $10 barrier in December 2013 and prior to its Modern Masters 2015 reprint, it was still averaging around the low $20s.
Splinter Twin’s recent reprint brought its price down a little, with the Modern Masters 2015 version trending at $17. If you are looking to get your playset of Splinter Twin, go ahead and get them now. With a Modern Masters 2015 reprint, I doubt we would see another reprint anytime soon. Gone are the days of under $10 or even under $15 Splinter Twin, but we have yet to arrive at the days of $30 to $40 Splinter Twin. As the key component to one of Modern’s most popular deck, Splinter Twin will unlikely remain at $17 for too long.
That’s it.Remand‘s price has finally hit its lowest point since 2012. The Jace vs. Vraska printing brought the $17 uncommon down to $11 for while, but it started inching up again early this year and by April Remand returned to its old price of $17. After all, there is only so much the Duel Deck could do with a singular copy of Remand in each box. Amid the big name reprints and big spikes, the community seemed to have overlooked the fact that Remand is now close to it’s 2012 price. Yup, the most popular counterspell in Modern, the sixth most-played card in the format as of writing, is back to single-digit price.
Now is the best time to pick-up your Remands, even if you are not planning to run Splinter Twin. It is one of the most ubiquitous blue card in Modern after Serum Visions and Snapcaster Mage. My prediction would be that by the next Modern PPTQ season in the summer of 2016, Remand’s price would be back in double-digit region.
That’s all for this instalment of The Modern Watch. I would be rolling out the next parts throughout the next few weeks. We are in an exciting month for Modern. After a dearth of high level tournaments for nearly half-a-year, we are getting a slew of Modern events this month and new decks and techs are bursting out of the gates. With two more Modern Grand Prix – Grand Prix Copenhagen this weekend and Grand Prix Singapore next weekend – I can’t wait to see what new tech surfaces. My only hope is that no Grishoalband makes the top 8 of Copenhagen this weekend. I would be running that deck in Singapore next weekend and it would be nice not to have the deck in the crosshairs.
Share your thoughts below or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.
MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
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