Tag Archives: Modern

ProTrader, Sigmund Ausfresser, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Trade Modern, Don’t Own It!

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The word “eternal” is defined as “lasting or existing forever; without end or beginning.” In Magic, the word is used to describe non-rotating formats, as they essentially last forever. And we all know what non-rotating formats mean in the financial world: stability in prices.

Or does it?

 

While Vintage and Legacy prices remain largely predictable—especially the gradual increase of staples on the reserved list—the fledgling Modern format seems to go through constant flux. Prices skyrocket on some cards while other cards tank in value due to an array of variables (though none involve rotation). Bannings and unbannings act as forceful shake-ups to the metagame, newly printed cards can strengthen one deck or hinder another dramatically, and one could even argue that the format isn’t yet solved.

But all of these variables pale in comparison to the highest form of price manipulation: reprints! Often times, a card’s reprinting is almost like a death sentence, killing years of potential price appreciation.

seize

One look at the chart for Thoughtseize is all it takes to convey the dire consequence of a reprint. The black sorcery from Lorwyn peaked near $80 in value, but now sells for under $40. The more than 50-percent drop is also reflected in the buylist price (the blue line on the chart above), which dropped from $50 to under $20 for a brief moment before recovering to around $25.

Modern’s Reprint Epidemic

Of course, reprints don’t only happen to Modern cards. During the release of Conspiracy, we saw a handful of Legacy staples get absolutely destroyed value-wise due to reprinting. Examples include Exploration and Misdirection, though Stifle still sticks out the most to me: I remember buylisting my copies a few years ago for around $15, then regretting that I sold out early, as Stifle peaked at around $50. But then it got absolutely obliterated by its reprint: it’s now valued under $10!

Stifle

But while the Legacy format can also receive the reprint treatment now and again, it seems like Modern is taking the largest beating. After all, Wizards of the Coast has released two entire sets dedicated to Modern reprints. Not only that, but I suspect these sets are likely to become a recurring thing based on the year being listed in Modern Masters 2015, meaning we haven’t seen the last of Modern reprints. Far from it.

This means that despite the hundreds of reprints we’ve received since Modern’s inception, we can expect to see many more. As the format ages, Wizards of the Coast will have a larger and larger pool to choose from for reprinting. For example, in a hypothetical Modern Masters 2017, we can expect to see cards from Innistrad block like Snapcaster Mage and Cavern of Souls. Then in Modern Masters 2019, we’ll get reprints of Abrupt Decay and shock lands. The cycle could continue indefinitely—after all, Modern is an “eternal” format, right?

Huge Implications

While technically Modern fits the eternal format definition, I’d argue that prices are more inclined to behave like those of Standard than Legacy going forward. In a way, a recurring cycle of Modern Masters is equivalent to Standard rotation. Both phenomena have a profound impact on card prices by applying downward pressure. Then over the long term, the true powerhouse staples may slowly recover with enough demand and player base growth.

While Legacy cards may also see reprint to an extent, it’s clear that Wizards of the Coast is prioritizing the reduction of cost of entry to Modern. After all, with the company’s self-inflicted reserve list policy, it can never reprint dual lands. As a result, we are likely to see duals rise over a long enough horizon (despite recent pullback trends…which are the reason I’ve been building my dual land position).

Sea

This type of steady, predictable price inflation can not be a characteristic of Modern staples. Constant threat of reprints severely hinders the potential for appreciation over time. The looming fear that a card’s value will be cut in half is too severe.

Because of this ongoing threat, I anticipate there will be a number of long-term effects providing everlasting (eternal?) headwinds to Modern card prices. Below I present three results stemming from the reprint epidemic in Modern beyond the acute price drops.

1) Trading vs. Investing

You don’t have to be a fan of CNBC personality Jim Cramer to appreciate his sentiment on Apple stock over the past few years: “Own it. Don’t trade it.” His point is that while Apple’s stock is prone to sizable fluctuations, the long term prospects of the world’s largest company is overall positive. Therefore, he advocates that you don’t try to buy and sell the stock constantly, but rather sit tight and enjoy the upward ride.

The same statement could apply to dual lands. People often ask, “When’s the best time to sell out of my duals?” Take it from someone who sold out of Legacy a couple years ago, only to regret 90 percent of those sales: the answer is, “Never, unless you need the cash.”

None of this is accurate for any Modern staples. In the world of Modern, you need to be a frequent trader and not an investor. You can’t become complacent with a single Modern card because you just never know when a reprint may occur. You also never know when a card will be banned, for that matter. The banning of Birthing Pod may have been the right call, and it certainly shook up the format in time for the Pro Tour. But the move cost me over $100 when all the dust settled. Pod dropped, and so did the likes of Reveillark, Ranger of Eos (less severely), Orzhov Pontiff, and worst of all, Chord of Calling.

Chord

Even though we knew Snapcaster Mage and Inkmoth Nexus were strong buys once it was confirmed they were out of MM2015, staples like these really aren’t good “investments”—they’re good trades. They are good to acquire over the course of a few months. But there’s not a single Modern card I can advocate investing in for years.

2) Deck Building

Once again, I turn to Twitter for an inspiring dialogue that best illustrates this point.

Tweets

The debate at hand was whether or not Modern Masters 2015 will provide the same increase in Modern interest that the original MMA sparked. The jury is still out on this one, but I want to highlight the viewpoint I communicated: now that Modern has been around for years, most players already have their decks. And while many players are in Jamie’s boat, acting opportunistically on MM2015-incited price drops, the reality is most players already interested in Modern have most of the cards they need. Only the newest of new Modern players will be looking to acquire three more Tarmogoyfs after opening one in a pack.

Ben shared his desire to build many Modern decks. While he has my utmost respect for pursuing this quest, I am left questioning the financial sense it makes to do so. If you’re jamming Modern on a regular basis, I could see the value of owning multiple decks to adjust to metagames. But having a number of Modern decks built is also a major liability because you are subjecting yourself to so much potential downside due to reprints.

When I was playing Legacy on a weekly basis, I was fortunate enough to trade towards cards required to build multiple archetypes. Like Ben, I enjoyed the versatility of having multiple decks at my disposal. But while I sat on a sizable Legacy collection, I never feared a sudden collapse in my cards’ values. The Legacy format was stable enough to give me confidence my assets would hold their current prices or even appreciate. So if I wasn’t enjoying one particular deck enough, I at least knew I could make profit over time regardless.

This is not the case with Modern. Holding many decks—or holding a large Modern portfolio for that matter—for an extended period of time is like asking for punishment. It may not be as bad as buying multiple cars from a value standpoint, but it’s probably close.

If enough people have this sentiment as me, it could mean less demand for Modern cards from players going forward. Modern players could potentially build the decks they want and be content to stop acquiring. The opportunity cost of sitting on unused Modern merchandise is simply too great.

3) Higher Volatility and Liquidity

This last consequence is probably a corollary of the first two, but I want to call it out separately in order to emphasize it. If speculators are focused on trading (not investing) Modern staples, and players are less inclined to build many decks, then you’ll have an environment where Modern cards are much more liquid and volatile.

If I pick up an extra dual land or Lion’s Eye Diamond, I may be inclined to sit on it for a while as an investment. The same goes for reserve list EDH staples, like strategic Legends rares. By sitting on copies and not unloading them, players reduce liquidity in the market by removing copies from the economy.

LED

But with Modern, it’s different. Modern cards are far more liquid because players will frequently be looking to get rid of certain cards. Open a Vendilion Clique in an MM2015 pack, but playing Jund in Modern? Throw that Clique on TCGplayer for a quick sale! Have all the fetches you need already? Throw extras in your trade binder—they are highly liquid and should be easy to trade toward the cards you do need.

Along with the higher trade volumes comes higher price volatility. Reprints and banned-list changes are obvious drivers of volatility, but shifts in the Modern metagame will also have a major impact. Amulet Bloom’s appearance and disappearance from top tables reminds me of Brett Favre’s retirement and un-retirement from the NFL. Like the Minnesota Vikings’ playoff prospects during Favre’s final years playing football, the value of Amulet of Vigor follows a roller coaster trajectory as the deck falls in favor and out again (though now the price seems to have finally stuck).  (And sorry, couldn’t resist the awful analogy.)

Amulet

One weekend of Jund dominance could send Liliana of the Veil to new all-time highs. Sudden proliferation of Affinity decks could mean sizable gains for holders of Creeping Corrosion or Stony Silence.

As mentioned before, all of these rapid price moves lend themselves toward trading and not investing, which is why we’re likely to see massive volatility in the Modern market continue.

Wrapping It Up

In short, Modern speculation won’t be for the faint-of-heart nor for those short on time. Significant profits can be had dealing in Modern, but constant attention to the metagame and likely reprints is required. Whereas you could purchase a Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale and sit on it for years to make money, the same strategy simply doesn’t work with Modern staples. For one, you subject yourself to severe reprint risk. Additionally, you may miss a prime opportunity to sell at a peak when a given Modern staple may be in higher demand due to a metagame shift.

Lastly, be careful building many Modern decks for personal use. While it is certainly fun to switch up strategies from week to week, you need to consider the possible ramifications of sitting on so much Modern stock for long periods of time. In other eternal formats like Legacy, sitting on extra staples is often a boon for your wallet. But with Modern, it could mean riding many downward trajectories in card prices, such as the one below.

Opal

If you’re not using the cards often, think before you sit on many cards for too long. Weigh the opportunity cost of holding through potential reprints alongside how much you’re enjoying these cards. Personally, I maintain just one Modern deck—I concede the fact that some of my cards may drop in price due to reprinting because I like having a deck to play with. But because I don’t play frequently, I can’t justify suffering this financial pain across multiple decks. The losses are just too great. And with the likelihood of many reprints to come in the future, my recommendation to trade Modern cards and not own them is more important than ever.

Sig’s Quick Hits

If you’re up for some good Modern pick-ups to flip in a few months, here are some worthwhile considerations. Just don’t hold these for too long—you never know when they’ll get reprinted or fall out of favor in Modern.

  • Arcbound Ravager dodged MM2015 reprint. After getting the reprint treatment in MMA, the artifact creature has recovered in price completely. Now Star City Games has just two total copies in stock, and both are SP and from Darksteel. NM copies are just over $20 and are completely sold out, and prices should go higher if Affinity remains a popular strategy in Modern.
  • I like Hive Mind as a pickup in trade. The card was printed only once, in Magic 2010. SCG has just two SP and three MP copies in stock, and they’re sold out of NM copies at $5.05. While Amulet Bloom’s popularity may wax and wane, the raw power of this enchantment should help buoy its price for the foreseeable future.
  • Mutagenic Growth’s reprint in MM2015 will absolutely destroy this common’s value. SCG has 77 NM copies of the MM2015 version in stock for $0.49 and 97 New Phyrexia copies at the same price. Vines of Vastwood has a similar story. Might of Old Krosa, on the other hand, dodged reprint yet again. Star City Games has plenty in stock, but we’re nearing $10 uncommon territory. Foils are sold out, however, with a price tag of $14.99. Expect this price to rise very soon.
City of Traders, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Going Hunting on the Banned and Restricted List

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By: Travis Allen

When this article goes live, I’ll either be in or en route to Las Vegas, along with what feels like what must be a quarter of the Magic-playing population. I haven’t been aboard the #hypetrain that three-fourths of my Twitter feed has been, mostly because I’m incapable of experiencing these “emotions” I hear people constantly have, but I’m looking forward to it nonetheless.

I suspect that my plan for the event is similar to many: I’ll participate in the main event because I’m there and it should be fun, but it’s hardly the flagship activity of my attendance. Other activities, all just as important, will be two-headed giant events with friends, social mixers with various Magic personalities I’ve yet to meet in person, distributing MTGPrice loot to a handful of individuals, writing up coverage about what’s hot on the floor, taking in a show or two, and maybe even hanging out at the pool in the naked desert sun. If you see me wandering around the floor, feel free to stop me and say hello. I’m always happy to meet the few poor souls that read my articles.

I’ve spent the last three weeks writing about Modern Masters 2015, so I’ll spare you from that this week. After all, big price movements will be happening after all the events wrap up and tens of thousands of cards end up hitting dealer buylists or local binders across the world. A week or two after the festivities will be a good time to check in on MM2015 again. In the meantime, let prices settle a bit, enjoy the draft format, and see what else is going on.

No Reservations

With Dragons of Tarkir fully in the rear view mirror and Origins a good six weeks away, we’re smack dab in the middle of Standard set releases. This makes it a good time to discuss cards whose value can and frequently does run up close to release dates. I’m speaking of cards on the banned and restricted (B&R) list.

It seems that nearly every regular set release is accompanied by B&R speculation. What’s coming off the list? Are they finally banning card X? Was last weekend’s GP enough to push them in one direction? What would be good if format Y gets card Z back? And so on and so on. Speculation runs rampant. People make absolutely ridiculous claims about what would be fair to unban and how good the card would or wouldn’t be if legal.

Perhaps a bit anecdotal, but it feels like Modern chatter is cyclical to me. A set release will bring with it extensive B&R speculation, and when the article finally goes live on DailyMTG, we get an answer one way or another. Banned cards hit buylists within minutes, unbanned cards are bought out even faster, and social media fills with complaints about dealers that cancel orders. Unbanned cards mostly fail to make an impact and prices slowly fall away over several months. Golgari Grave-Troll is a perfect recent example of this.

ggt

By the time the next set release rolls around, nobody seems to be talking about anything. I often forget that it’s going to happen until a day or two beforehand. The article is posted, no changes are made, and life goes on, at least until the next update is two weeks away and the speculation mill starts up again.

Back when Fate Reforged was on the horizon, everyone thought Bloodbraid Elf was coming back. Check out the price graph:

bbe

What’s amusing here is that 90-degree turn in the red circle is about a week before the update occurred. Rather than waiting for the update to find out if BBE would actually come back, people began moving in hard entirely on speculation. The update came and went, BBE stayed banned, and now we’re back to about $4, half the price of its frenzied peak, and double-ish the pre-rise lows.

Movement on cards ahead of B&R updates is happening earlier and earlier, and is exactly why we’re talking about this in the middle of two set releases, when speculation on the list is at its lowest. The time to buy cards coming off of the B&R list isn’t seconds after the update—everyone and their dog is trying to do that. Somewhere between a fraction to all of your orders will get cancelled, and you won’t have the cards until after the prices have already started to settle. If you really want to profit on B&R list updates, waiting until the list changes is a fool’s game. Action is required when nobody else is paying attention—now, essentially.

This is the primary lesson of today’s article. You don’t make money by buying cards immediately after updates. You make money by picking up cheap copies when nobody is looking, and then selling everything you have the second it’s unbanned.

brilliantplan

Private Reserve

The secondary component of this article is looking at what’s on the B&R list today that’s worth picking up. Two key factors on this exercise: there’s no certainty whatosever in this process, not in the way that “Tasigur is going to go up” or “reserve list cards are safe” are certain. A card could be considered by the entire community to be impotent in a format and undeserving of a ban, but until WOTC scratches the name off the list, it’s going to languish in the bulk bin.

The other factor is urgency: there is none. You don’t have to run over to SCG or TCG or ABU or whatever immediately after reading this and go deep on Black Vise. My preferred acquisition on B&R targets is slower and less deliberate. If I see one in a trade binder, I’ll pull it out. People are often happy to move a card that has no immediate applicability. If I’m placing an order for something, I’ll see if they have any of my preferred banned cards in stock at reasonable prices. I also scan big sales like SCG’s back-to-school  for discounted cards on the list. Hall off on Mind Twist? Sure, why not.

All of that said, what’s currently on my watch list?

Modern

Bloodbraid Elf
While she missed last time, I’m confident that we’ll see her again eventually. There’s a good reason her price ran up so high before: a lot of people think she’s completely fair to add back into Modern, especially with the introduction of Siege Rhino as competition at the four-slot. If a portion of the community thinks that she’s fair to reintroduce to civilized society, there’s a good chance a few decision makers over at WOTC feel the same way. Also consider that when BBE was banned, Deathrite Shaman was legal. now that DRS is gone, the Jund strategy that BBE was supposedly propping up has mostly disappeared, replaced instead by Abzan.

Before the huge run-up in price, I liked FNM copies at $3 to $4. Post-surge, this price has stuck a lot closer to $10, unfortunately. While promos would probably hit $20 or more if she was actually unbanned, I like the normal copies more right now. They’re considerably cheaper, with $2 copies available if you look, and these will spike to $10 or more should she return. It’s also a lot easier to pick up a few $2 copies here and there than $10 copies.

Green Sun’s Zenith
With Birthing Pod’s departure, there’s a lot more room in the format for GSZ. The largest roadblock to Zenith returning is Dryad Arbor, as a single Arbor in your deck means that GSZ is always a better Llanowar Elf on turn one. A popular solution is to ban Dryad Arbor, which adds absolutely nothing to the format right now, and unban GSZ (hell, it’s worth banning just for that FTV: Realms art. How a card that deceptive passed inspection is beyond me).

Admittedly, this card was more interesting last year, while the price was still south of $5. Since 2014, we’ve seen the buylist increase significantly to keep pace with what appears to be casual and EDH demand. That’s good news, though. A solid demand profile without existing competitive appeal means that we’re unlikely to get burned holding copies, and prices could continue to rise from other sources while we wait for an unban. If this ever comes back, I expect prices in the $25 to $35 range out of the gate, and I’ll be right there with every copy I have.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor
I just want to take a moment to say that this is actually a terrible card to pick up on unban speculation. WOTC’s offices would be burned down if they unbanned Jace without printing a butt-ton more copies at the same time. Stay away on Modern speculation.

Legacy

Black Vise
The fact that people are scratching their head on this card every three months bodes well for Black Vise. Listening to people that know more about these strategies than I, it seems that this card is a completely fair addition to Legacy. A facet of the card is that it provides a way for burn strategies to beat up on combo decks that don’t manage to go off immediately, which is helpful in a matchup that currently leans heavily in combo’s favor.

With both Fourth Edition and Revised printings, there’s no shortage of copies out there. I’m targetting FTV copies, since it’s the only foil that exists. At $2 each, this is an easy $5 to $15 card should it get unbanned.

Mind Twist
Losing your entire hand to someone on turn one or two is the biggest fear with regards to Mind Twist. Some combination of land, Dark Ritual, Grim Monolith, and maybe another rock or two means you can take five to seven cards out of an opponent’s hand before they can meaningfully interact. However, under a slight bit of scrutiny this fear is easily allayed. A single Force of Will completely screws the guy casting Mind Twist, since he went all in to cast it, and his opponent is now only down two cards instead of six. And even if the Twist resolves, what’s left to do? The Twister casting it has a land, and maybe a mana rock or two left over, while the Twistee has maybe one card remaining. Advantage goes to the Twister, sure, but it’s not like the game is locked up. Both players are in top deck mode. Land, land, Tarmogoyf out of your twisted opponent is going to suck big time.

At $2 to $3, the buy-in is quite low. Like Black Vise, we’ve seen this in Fourth Edition and Revised, but at rare rather than uncommon. Concerns over the card being too good will abound in the days following the unban, with plenty of dark mages looking to play Twister in the near future. This will be $10 easily with a return to Legacy.

Mind’s Desire
I really doubt it, but I’ve got a small stack just in case. With only a judge promo and the original Scourge copies on the market, and a nearly guaranteed four-of status in any deck where it sees play, the reward is high enough for the risk that this never comes back.

Got Any More?

These are my current favorite B&R list targets these days. I’m curious to hear arguments for other options in the comments. Remember that the best time to scoop up these types of cards is exactly when nobody is talking about them. Set alerts on your calendar to remind you when to start looking if you have to.

As for those of you heading off to Vegas: see you on the floor!

Accumulated Knowledge, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Modern History 101 – Eighth Edition and Mirrodin

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BRIEF TEMPORAL ASIDE: I’m jealous of all of you who are reading this, because you are living in a time when Modern Masters 2015 has come out, while I am currently trapped in the past. Are you gonna crack some packs? I know I am! Cracking packs is so much fun.

Rather than talking about Modern Masters 2015, I want to talk about Modern itself. A lot of writers have done individual set or block reviews (myself included!), but I don’t think there has been a narrative overview of what Magic was like when those sets were out. We are going to do that, and compile some information that often gets discarded. You’ll see what I mean as we go along.

 

Eighth Edition

This was the first set to feature the new card face that would later go on to kill Magic1. The set, like all pre-M10 core sets, was comprised entirely of reprints. The selling point, though, was that this set would contain one reprint from every previous Magic set that had not been in a core set already. Neat!

And while several of those reprints are underwhelming on the order of Vexing Arcanix and Skull of Orm, there are some good cards in this set! Blood Moon was first reprinted here (and later again in Ninth), and Eighth Edition put such gems into Modern as City of Brass, Intruder Alarm, and Ploooooooow Uuuuuuuuuuuundeeeeeeeeeeeeeeer (I really like casting Plow Under).

Other finance gems worth noting include Planar Portal, the Urza-tron lands, and foil copies of Fecundity, Merchant Scroll, and Vernal Bloom. The first Standard format that Eighth Edition came into was Odyssey/Onslaught/Eighth, and neither of those expert-level blocks are Modern legal—if you want to see what the format looked like, check out the 2003 World Champs. Oh, and they made a big deal about the prerelease (even though the promo was Rukh Egg), and I won mine.

Non-Foil Cards of Note

Blood Moon – This card is in good Modern decks and bad Legacy decks.

Ensnaring Bridge – Modern, Legacy, Cube, Commander, Casual.

Bribery – Commander only. [Editor’s note: Cube would like to have a word with you, Ross.]

Grave Pact – Commander only also.

Lord of the Undead – I’m beginning to sense a pattern.

Defense Grid – Mostly Commander, some Modern.

Elvish Piper – Commander, and the eventual inverse of Tiny Leaders (Okks?).

Coat of Arms – Commander and any weird tribal format.

Choke – Modern, Legacy, and anything that is dominated by blue.

Foils of Note that Aren’t Just the Same as Above

Birds of Paradise – I’m not entirely sure why, but this is one of the most expensive printings of Birds. Seventh Edition foils blows these out of the water, though.

Storm Crow – I hate that the Storm Crow people have made this happen. Retail “price” of $32, best buylist price of $4. One of those prices is off, and I think it’s the first one.

Merchant Scroll – Vintage!

Teferi’s Puzzle Box: Casual favorite, I suppose?

Ambition’s Cost: Only foil printing of this card.

Noteworthy Standard Decks

NONE.

Now, I do love me some UG Madness2 and some Goblin Bidding, but that’s not really what this section is going to be for. As we roll into future sets, I’ll mention any decks that I think may be worth having on a resurrection radar—maybe an old archetype could benefit from new technology! I don’t expect much, but it’s worth looking. Also, I’ll be able to tell you if a deck was the real deal (like Karstenbot) or bogus (like Ghost Dad).

Analysis

There are a lot of foils in this set that are worth money, and there are fifteen rares worth $3 or more. The downside is that the set had 111 rares, so only about ten percent of the rares are worth the typical price of admission. There are some major wins if you hit on a foil, but I’m not going to tell you to buy a bunch of old packs to hopefully open a foil rare.

This set, despite its gimmick, was not super popular, since most of the marquee cards at the time (Persecute, Birds of Paradise, Wrath of God) were cards that enfranchised players already owned. Sealed packs look to be between $5 and $8 (ignoring shipping), so that’s not quite low enough to look appealing. If you are a gambler, and your local store has had these on a shelf since 2003, maybe they’ll take $3 each just to clear up space, but even then, 111 rares is a lot. To compare, there are 73 rares and mythics combined in M15, and only 68 rares and mythics combined in Dragons of Tarkir. If you open a box and each rare is different, you are only going to open 32 percent of the rares in the set, and only about three to five of them are expected to be “hits” (versus the lower price of entry, if you can even get it).

The prudent thing to do is to stay away, which means that these cards are going to slowly keep creeping up in value. All of the cards in here are prime candidates for reprinting in a future Modern Masters or Commander product (it’s already happened for some), although some of the more powerful cards, like Plow Under, are unlikely to ever be put in Standard again.

Oh, and I’ll mention this now since we were talking about packs: don’t forget that the foil distribution process didn’t change until Planar Chaos (where the foil replaces a common), so if you open a foil rare, that is also your rare. You can’t get two rares.

Parting Words

Don’t buy packs, do look up any foils that you see in longboxes where you don’t already know the price.

Mirrodin

This was the first expert-level set to feature the new card frame, and, to be fair, did a pretty good job as a block trying to kill Magic. This was also the first set to leave Dominaria in a long time, and we wouldn’t return until Time Spiral. The block’s theme was “artifacts matter,” and the books were terrible. I don’t want to talk too much about the block as a whole, since we are going through sets individually, which will probably help me limit my hateful vitriol to Darksteel where it belongs.

Mirrodin introduced affinity, equipment, and Mindslaver to Magic, so it certainly has had an impact. The set definitely had hype going into release, and the massive amount of design space devoted to cool artifacts has definitely given the world several casual favorites. The prerelease card, Sword of Kaldra, was a big hit with the Timmy/Tammy crowd, and the only reason it isn’t worth more is because I doubt most newer players are aware it exists3.

I remember Mirrodin pretty well, because it was around the time I started FNMing weekly as a priority. Like Eighth Edition, much of the analysis of this set in terms of Standard is going to be warped by the inclusion of sets that aren’t Modern legal (in this case, just Onslaught, one of the coolest blocks ever), and also by the fact that several of the best cards in this block got banned. I remember FNMs were getting pretty big around this time (I hopped between a few different stores). If only they knew what was about to happen…

Non-Foil Cards of Note

Chalice of the Void – Took off as anti-Treasure Cruise technology, and hasn’t come down since. The card is very good in older and more cutthroat formats like Legacy and Vintage, since there are more aggressive forms of “fast mana.” This card was a player in Old Extended with the next card on the list.

Chrome Mox – It should not come as a surprise that when WOTC uses the word “Mox” in a name that the card is very good. This card is considered to be too good for Modern, but it’s about right in Legacy, since going down an extra card when you play it is more taxing. Something to notice on Chrome Mox and some of the other top cards on this list: the buylist prices are all very good. Often a smaller spread between a buylist price and a retail price can mean copies are viewed as easy guaranteed sales, which you can extrapolate as expressed confidence in the card in the long term. If the big dealers like something, then you probably should too.

Oblivion Stone – This card went from zero to hero with the advent of EDH, and has cemented a place in Modern with the consistent success of Tron decks. Two big populations like this card, and it’s pretty good in Cube, too. This is basically Nevinyrral’s Disk to a generation of players. That’s a good thing.

Glimmervoid – Some versions of Affinity play lots of spells of different colors, so this is pretty much their best land.

Tooth and Nail – If you resolve this in Constructed, you win. There are lots of different two card combos to find with Tooth and Nail, but I’ll always have a soft spot for Mephidross Vampire and Triskelion. For a while, Tooth and Nail was an easy twenty bucks, so don’t be surprised if the current price of $8 balloons up again.

Duplicant – Popular EDH card and actual spot removal spell in Vintage (you can cast it off Mishra’s Workshop!). Yes, this is why the foil price is insane.

Platinum Angel – Despite a couple reprints, this is one of those marquee cards that is always going to keep a respectable price. “You can’t lose” is pretty appealing to most Magic players and/or Parker Lewis.

Sculpting Steel – Another card that is good because of Mishra’s Workshop, although this has largely been co-opted by Phyrexian Metamorph.

Goblin Charbelcher – Best card in Magic.

Foils of Note that Aren’t Just the Same as Above

Solemn Simulacrum – This is the original set foil version of this card. Sad Robot, perhaps, but at that price, I’d be smiling.

Lightning Greaves – EDH staple, or at least it used to be. Also original set foil.

Mindslaver – The other best card in Magic.

Thoughtcast – Again, original set foil. This card is crucial in Affinity decks, since playing your entire hand at once typically becomes a disadvantage if the game goes on for much longer.

Sylvan Scrying – Original set foil, finds Urza lands and other toolbox effects. Played as a 4x in a few Modern decks.

Talisman of Dominance – Played in Legacy, believe it or not.

Molten Rain – This card hasn’t been in either Modern Masters set yet, which is surprising. This card is very good, and I’m surprised the foils are only $10.

Noteworthy Standard Decks

Broodstar Affinity – It didn’t take long (by 2003 standards) for Affinity to be uncovered as an extremely unfair mechanic. The five artifact lands, in concert with Disciple of the Vault and Atog (yes, really), helped enable some extremely degenerate strategies.

The decks also featured Broodstar, a heavy-hitting beater that would get in large chunks of damage coming down extremely early. Broodstar was a serious threat, and is probably the only Affinity-era star to not get serious consideration in Modern. The reason why is likely because Affinity decks now lean towards strategies that better support Cranial Plating, which encourages a wide threat of small artifact creatures, rather than just a bunch of artifacts. I’m not sure if Broodstar adds anything to existing Affinity strategies or if building a new version around the flier is worth exploring, but Broodstars are currently dirt cheap and Affinity is very popular in Modern (and Legacy!). Much of the other stuff that was in these lists was later replaced by better cards in the other two sets (sorry, Scale of Chiss-Goria).

RDW – Red decks are always going to try to be as lean and redundant as possible, so it’s hard to find something that is “hidden” in terms of red deck technology. Molten Rain is probably as good an example of a hidden gem as red decks can get, which should tell you how little meat is still left on the bone. Arc Slogger does not belong anywhere near your Modern red deck. Slith Firewalker is probably not even good enough, which stinks.

Analysis

Looking through the foil prices on Mirrodin, I started to realize how many good cards there are in this set. While you can never truly judge a book or a Magic set by its cover, I think it actually makes thematic sense that Mirrodin has a wide variety of cards with casual appeal. Artifacts, by their nature, are accessible to decks of every color, so the demand is more widespread—if something is good, it’s a card that all EDH players want, not just ones playing blue (like Bribery) or green (like that dumb creature that does a thing). Put a pin in this topic, we’ll come back to it in a bit.

Anyway, boxes look to be about $250, which puts packs just shy of $7. There are only eleven cards that beat that mark (or come super close, like Sculpting Steel), so buying packs is a losing proposition once again (this is often going to be the case). There are a few uncommons and commons of value in the set, including Wrench Mind, which is the closest Modern is ever going to get to Hymn to Tourach4. This is a great set to pick through when you are looking at bulk, and there are a handful of cards out of this set that may be worth a closer look (I’ll be changing the way I do my set reviews to better fit this new series in the future, so they are complimentary pieces rather than basically writing the same thing twice).

It’s worth mentioning once again that Mirrodin on release was a very popular set. Standard was still heavily defined by Onslaught, but that set, while it featured some pretty powerful strategies, wasn’t so strong that it overshadowed new tech. There were a lot of people, myself included, who were just happy that Odyssey block was gone, if you can believe that. Those sets were cool, but rewarded thinking in a way that was only clear to very good players.

Coming up next: the set that would send the tournament player base into a nose dive.

Two Sets Down…

Let me know what you thought of today’s article. It’s fun to go back and parse out what we didn’t know when all this was happening, and I try to interject what I remember personally (this will get easier as we progress and sets are more recent in my memory, except for those years where my LGS was next to an Outback Steakhouse that did happy hour right before FNM). If there is something you’d like to see me add, or you’d rather me just stick to our old set reviews, let me know. Thanks, and I’ll see you next week!

Best,

Ross

P.S. Word is that it is possible to reseal Modern Masters 2015 packs. Do not buy packs from someone you don’t trust completely, and be extremely scrupulous. Also, as a way to be respectful to other players, don’t discard the packaging in a way that other people may be able to reuse your packaging. And make sure to actually recycle them! That’s what this change was for in the first place.

P.P.S. Sounds like cards are coming out of the packs with scuffing and damage. This is likely due to the new packaging method. More on that as it unfolds.

P.P.P.S. Remember when I said to put a pin in what we were talking about before? Here’s the elevator pitch version of every Modern block in three words. Tell me which jump out as the best sets for casual cards:

  • Mirrodin: Lots of artifacts!
  • Kamigawa: Lots of legends!
  • Ravnica 1: Ten color pairs!
  • Time Spiral: Sure, why not?!
  • Lorwyn: Lots of tribal!
  • Shadowmoor: Lorwyn minus tribal!
  • Alara: Now three colors!
  • Zendikar: Lands and Cthulhu!
  • Scars: Mirrodin plus poison!
  • Innistrad: This is Halloween!
  • Return to Ravnica: You loved Ravnica!
  • Theros: Remember Homer’s “Odyssey”?
  • Tarkir: Wedges and dragons!

1 Clearly it didn’t, but that was the assumption.

2 This was also the name of one of Magic’s few webcomics. I really liked it, and it’s where I got my Mise shirt.

3 The concept of exposure is something we’ve been talking about on the forums lately.

4 Although I’m holding out for an eventual “dinosaur world” set featuring a functional reprint named “Hymn to Turok.”

Ginger Ale

Financial Five: Modern Masters 2015

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By: Houston Whitehead

Though the majority of the MTG community seems to be in an uproar about the amount of value placed in Modern Masters 2015, profit can still be accumulated.  As with many sets, cracking cardboard lottery tickets to push out those last few proxies in your Modern deck is not a road worth traveling.  In fact, I wouldn’t take a road at all.  I want to sit in a lawn chair off the beaten path with sunscreen on my nose and wait for the tidal wave of Modern Masters 2015 singles to wreck the complacent prices that have become accepted as part of a Modern player’s life.

The Twist

Normally, a Financial Five article will cover five new cards from an upcoming release I deem to possess profitable potential.  Since Modern Masters 2015 contains 100% reprints, we already know many of the roles it plays or decks lists play four copies.

We all know…

…reprints bring prices down (unless you’re Tarmogoyf).

…format staple prices will recover over time (proven by the first Modern Masters).

…Modern will never be as cheap as you want it to be.

So this time on Financial Five, we’re going to discuss five cards worth picking up at the bottom of their financial decent that also have the most potential to recover over time.

Cryptic Command (TCG Mid $41)cryptic mm

From four copies in the UWR Control deck down to a double copy in Splinter Twin variants, it’s the Swiss army knife every blue player loves and everyone else hates.  The top shelf $60 price tag was simply out of reach for anyone wanting to dip their toes into Modern with being forced to play the handful of budget aggro decks.  During the early months of 2014 (six months after the Modern Master release) Cryptic sat at an understandable $25.  I think the 2015 print will bring it back to that desirable price and slowly start to creep back up as early as the Origins release.  Pick up $25 or under.

 

Karn Liberated (TCG Mid $36)karn mm

Starting at $50, Karn has already taken a couple steps down but I don’t think he’s done yet.  Though he honestly only sees competitive play in TRON variants, I think Commander players will have a large influence on recovering his price.  Though the recovery will be slower than Modern staples, like Cryptic Command or Noble Hierarch, I think he will land $25 or under and creep up in the long run. Pick up $25 or under.

Splinter Twin (TCG Mid $21)splinter twin

Love it, hate it, or still want it banned, we have to respect the power of Splinter Twin.  Over the last year this card alone has spawned so many variants you’d have to go to college to count that high.  It’s the definition of a format staple and a worthy reprint.  Twin’s price wasn’t out of control yet but was clearly teetering on the edge.  I expect the bottom price to land around $10 and stay close to it for the next year. Pick up $10 or under.

Spellskite (TCG Mid $21)spellskite

This little 0/4 has been the chief of Splinter Twin’s security detail for close to three years.  It’s won over a slot in Modern and Legacy Infect lists and, more importantly, can take a bolt.  Though Spellskite’s price has been increasing faster than Meandering Towershell, I still feel a $10 price tag should be the lowest it will go before heading back up. Pick up $25 $10 or under and your future sideboards will thank you.

Noble Hierarch (TCG Mid $41)noblehierarch mm

Let’s be honest, this price was getting WAY out of hand. I doubt Modern Masters 2015 will drop Noble low enough to satisfy every Modern player, but she sees too much competitive play to fall into a $10 range.  I honestly feel $30 will be a reasonable price to go in at.  You could get greedy and wait for a lower bottom but it won’t take long for the price to ascend quickly after hitting the bottom.  Its existence in Infect, Zoo, and a variety of Junk (Abzan) decks will welcome all those looking to investing in Modern therefore keeping her demand high.  If supply can’t keep up with all the new Modern players she might be back at $50 before you know it. Pick up $30 or under.

Wrap Up

I’m excited for the Modern Masters 2015 Limited format but don’t feel popping open $10 lottery tickets have enough to reward me financially.  I think attacking trade binders and single cases is the best way to unlock those decks you have been wanting to pilot.  I’m still thankful for the Modern Masters series Wizards of the Coast is printing though.  Las Vegas weekend is going to be one for the record books.

If you’re attending Grand Prix Las Vegas and want to meet, hit me up on Twitter.

As always thanks for reading

@TNSGingerAle