When Does a Staple Act Like a Rock?

I always imagine there is one person who has never read one of my articles before. I imagine them reading the title and thinking, “What in the actual crap is this dude talking about?” and it makes me laugh. There is a non-zero chance even people who read my article from last week are confused. Either way, maybe brush up on that piece because I introduced a few metaphorical concepts that we’re going to continue here.

Last week we talked about identifying cards that either can make other cards go up by how they impact the format (rocks, so called for the way they aren’t interesting themselves but can generate ripples when thrown into a pond) or are going to impact the format directly by virtue of their own power and be used across a variety of different decks (staples).

I only mentioned the card once, but I really structured how I thought about all of those  concepts around the card Eldrazi Displacer. Do you like the card Eldrazi Displacer? Do you want to talk about the card Eldrazi Displacer? Would you like to see me spend 1,800 more words on it? Because that’s what’s up. In case you need your memory refreshed, and also because I love posting the picture of the card so I can admire it in all of its glory, here it is again. Your new overlord.

If you know anything about EDH, you know this card is going to be ridiculous and will make people re-evaluate mana bases to see if they have the non-generic colorless to support this card. I feel the same way about Endbringer, so I think the first topic we should tackle is the effect that non-generic colorless mana will have on manabases and other cards. There is real upside here.

I consider Eldrazi Displacer to be a future staple. I don’t know if its adoption in EDH is initially going to be enough to make non-foil copies of the card worth any money, and for a card that’s just a staple, that’s usually the end of the conversation. Its sheer power level influences its ubiquity and its ubiquity influences its price. However, there are times in this wacky durdle format that I love (and I also assume you love, because when I ask people who want to make money on Magic cards but don’t personally play EDH themselves, they look at me like I asked them to donate a kidney), where a card that looks a lot like a staple of the format can act a lot like a rock. It pushes up prices of the cards in the deck with it without meaning to.

This is odd behavior for a staple. Chromatic Lantern didn’t do that. So why should this? Well, I’m obviously going to tell you why. That’s sort of my whole deal.

Effect on Mana

At first glance, this looks more mana-hungry than Deadeye Navigator because it costs three to activate to Navigator’s two and requires you to have true colorless, which could be harder to generate than we think. However, the need for colorless mana and ways to turn generic mana into colorless can really get some use.

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This card has been reprinted into just about powder, and it could see another reprinting in Commander 2016 (although it didn’t in Commander 2014) so that limits its upside a bit, but this is the sort of card you want to be looking at. You can turn generic mana into colorless mana at the rate of three for three. That doesn’t look like much, but this sort of card is useful in a manabase that needs true colorless in ways it wasn’t necessary before.  Basalt Monolith prima facie is pretty inefficient, but as a mana filter, it’s pretty saucy. There has to be some way to make some money from this card seeing more play.

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The Unlimited printing seems to be shrugging off the ugly reprints nicely. I like how this looks compared to Commander and Revised, but its odd centering may bother some. Still, they aren’t making more of this particular card, and I like how it’s retaining value despite not seeing more play. If it sees more play, we can pretty safely predict there will be some upside.

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Compared to a less efficient, more expensive card, Basalt Monolith starts to look like what it is and less like a bad Grim Monolith, which is in turn just a bad Sol Ring. Let’s ignore the price of Grim Monolith since it’s predicated on other formats, but let’s remember Grim Monolith is expensive because it’s a good card—and if Basalt Monolith can be better in our decks, the price has upside.

I think true colorless mana is going to put some pressure on some manabases to change. I talked about generic and colorless mana and its implications in depth in a previous article which still has a lot of info worth brushing up on. Cards that generate true colorless are going to be in more demand with silly Eldrazi that require this specific mana and those cards will see some upside based on the new demand. I won’t rehash the examples from that piece here—take some time to reread it if you want a better sense of what could be affected.

It seems like Eldrazi Displacer is powerful enough that people are willing to change up their manabases, especially if they jam a few more Eldrazi like Endbringer to make the most of that new manabase. I like pain lands a lot in the future, especially the ones which generate white mana.

Caves of Koilos

Archetypes It Bolsters

Decks that are already decks are going to love this card. Basically, if you go to EDHREC and look for decks that are playing Mistmeadow Witch and/or Deadeye Navigator you will see quite a lot of action. Roon. Brago. Reaper King (awww yiss!). Augustin. Phelddagrif. These decks are already doing stupid stuff with Mistmeadow Witch. The list gets even bigger when you add Deadeye Navigator. Sakashima. Tasigur. Sedris. Silumgar. So many decks that are using this silly ability. While only decks that play white benefit from Eldrazi Displacer, it’s fun to see how many decks cards like this effect. But it’s worth looking a little deeper, because there are some decks where Eldrazi Displacer is more than just a second copy of Navigator or Witch.

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This creature comes into play with seven counters on him that can be removed for colorless mana. You remove all seven, putting seven colorless mana in your pool. Use three of those mana to activate Eldrazi Displacer, removing Rasputin from the game before returning him with all of his seven counters restored. Do this a lot of times to net four colorless mana each time you do it. Proceed to drill everyone in the face with whichever way to use infinite colorless mana you’d like to use to end all of their lives. This doesn’t make this deck more than a turn faster, but it does give it one more avenue to go infinite, and it’s a two-card combo plus your mana outlet rather than you having to come up with blue mana for Deadeye. This makes Rasputin a much better deck than it already was, and it was already pretty good. Rasputin has demonstrated the ability to hit $50 or more and with copies available below $40, this seems like a good example of a card whose archetype is bolstered disproportionately. Eldrazi Displacer works with Rasputin better than it works with almost any other Commander which can play it in its deck, and that has to matter. Rasputin is old and it’s not like it’s getting a reprint.

This could lead to some people building a new Brago or Derevi or Lavinia deck which means staples in those decks have upside. I’d absolutely watch cards like Great Whale, Peregrine Drake, and the big one:

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Palinchron was on the way up anyway, and any little boost could just steepen the curve.

This is all fascinating for a card that isn’t a legendary creature. It’s a staple that’s behaving like a rock quite a bit with all the ripples it’s creating.

mays

True “rocks” don’t just bolster old archetypes.

New Archetypes It Creates 

Eldrazi Displacer is white, that much is obvious. But did you know it also wasn’t blue? That’s sort of important, because Mistmeadow Witch and Deadeye Navigator and Venser, the Sojourner and Grover from Sesame Street are all blue, and that limits the number of decks they can go in. While Deadeye Navigator is played in decks like Tasigur that Witch can’t go in, it can’t go in some of the non-blue decks with white the Displacer can go in. If there’s no blue at all, Witch and Navigator aren’t an option, but all of a sudden Displacer is.

Are there commanders that have white but not blue that could use this? Of course there are! It may take some time for people to figure out exactly which white-but-not-also-blue decks they want to jam Displacer in and which archetypes can be created. In the mean time, we do know which cards pair with it, and that’s important.

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This took quite a blow from being forgotten by Standard players and getting a reprint, but it has growth potential, especially since this can be abused in decks without blue. There are enough angels with good enter-the-battlefield effects that Eldrazi Displacer could bolster one deck right off the bat.

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This badass and all the cards that go in the deck suddenly look a little sexier. FTV Angels (don’t google that exact thing. It’s porn. You get porn.) got people jazzed about angels and Displacer does dumb things with basically every angel and demon in the deck. Once, you couldn’t go nuts with an Angel of Despair that you could tutor for, but now you can. And that’s just dandy.

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Hey, look at a combo  that was only available in decks with blue before. Isn’t that dandy? Everything is dandy. And that’s the point.

Lots of decks are going to want to use Eldrazi Displacer as a mono-white Deadeye Navigator, but it has defensive properties as well. If you use it on an opponent’s creature, it leaves combat and comes back in, tapped. This can keep you from dying to certain Voltron decks until they give their commander protection from white or creatures, it can lock down big beaters and creatures that have to hit you to take effect, and can generally just keep a lot of damage out of your face. Tokens? Dead meat. Forever.

What’s one last way a card that seems like it’s bound to be an EDH staple is going to act a bit like a rock, and therefore a card whose own price may actually matter (and go up from where it is now)?

Effect on Other Formats

EDH is EDH. EDH rocks tend to not be worth a ton of money sometimes (Nekusar) compared to staples (Mana Reflection). But EDH is only one format, and it’s just one place where the cards can impact play and therefore be financially relevant. Edric was a great commander, but his price really soared when people played him briefly in Legacy. The speculation community as a whole, as well as armchair speculators reading tweets from pro players, all bought in heavily to Edric and other first-generation EDH commanders. Even a modicum of playability in Legacy set off a chain reaction.

Could we see Eldrazi Displacer make some movies in Standard? There are potential combos with Standard cards, and some of them let me kill people with Zulaport Cutthroat, which is all I ever wanted to do as a Magic player. Any interest in Standard, even interest that doesn’t end up substantiated by sustainable play, can give this card itself a chance to move up in price. If it does work out, it can bring other cards with it to the top. Those speculations are outside the scope of this article series and better left to Standard specialists, but an EDH staple can find its price affected by things no one anticipated.

I was taking my time and trading for See the Unwritten at a leisurely pace when Standard speculation about upcoming Eldrazi kicked the price in the ass, and it still hasn’t recovered. It’s good to be on top of things, because you never know what Standard could do to upend your plan of, “Wait to get this for cheap at rotation,” and the price may never get to below where it was when you decided to wait.

Eldrazi Displacer is a very special card. It’s going to cause all kinds of tumult, and it’s going to make all kinds of shenanigans possible. I personally welcome it and can’t wait to jam it in every deck. Cheap foils? Sure hope so. Expensive non-foils? Maybe, and I hope I’m invested if it happens. All I know is that there’s more than meets the eye with this card, and it’s going to cause more ripples than any other card in the set. Seeing what this card can do will help us immensely if we see a card like it on future spoilers. Until next week!

Grinder Finance – Information Cascades and You

So if you read my last article I “predicted” some cards to become more expensive.  I felt strongly that a card that is played in almost 50% of decks in Modern (Spellskite) despite only using 1-2 copies was prime for some kind of price correction.

spellskite

My article went up on Tuesday and it was business as usual.  On Thursday of last week, I posted this.

Apparently this turned the time table into from “a few weeks” to “in a few hours.” It got me thinking.  Maybe it’s partially my fault?  Is the spread of information really what causes these types of price spikes?

Anticipate-Battle-for-Zendikar-MtG-Art

What is an Information Cascade?

In the simplest terms, when someone sees someone else do something they assume it is a good idea, without rethinking any previously made assumptions.  It’s the internet’s effect on card prices in a “monkey see monkey do” pattern.  11 years ago, Patrick Chapin wrote an article about information cascades during Ravnica: City of Guilds (here).  I’m not going to try to explain it better than he did (he’s got a better command of the idea than I do) but I can say with some kind of certainty that this is part of the Magic price problem.  If x tells y who tells z to buy a card and it goes up, who’s fault is it?  Is it really anyone’s?

I don’t want to feel guilty for the reason that Spellskite got more expensive.  The position I am in means that whenever I suggest buying a card it could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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Misinformation Cascades

I’ve long considered Heartless Summoning to be a “trap.”  It’s a card that gets hyped every year for like a few days and doesn’t win anything.  Right now there are people buying $5 copies of Heartless Summoning hoping that it becomes good.  Really what’s happening is that people are paying $5 for a lot of dimes in a month.  This is the worst kind of price spike because people are buying “just in case it’s good.”  I know a lot of people who look at Heartless Summoning and they’re thinking “Yeah man, that’s my jam!” and that’s fine if you’re that kind of person.  Just don’t go “Oh man it’s spiking I better get my copies before it gets too expensive.”  These thoughts just lose a lot of people a lot of money.

auriok champion

Toxic Information Cascades

I had a discussion on twitter with some pretty level headed people.  There’s something I want to try to institute for the future of my articles and tweets.  Don’t tweet that “x is low supply” for the sake of saying it’s low supply.  Auriok Champion is a card that is low supply and has been for years.  No I’m not exaggerating, it’s been far too expensive for years but it’s primarily only played in Soul Sisters (which is mostly a budget deck so people avoided buying them). Yeah there is some upside, it can’t die to lightning bolt and stops Deceiver Exarch / Splinter Twin combo.  Josh Cho is on camera and it shows up and boom it’s gone from the internet.  I lament with you on the fact that these kinds of spikes are shitty but how do we prevent it?  Auriok Champion hasn’t been “on the table” for reprints.  It’s not a card that people think of “you know what really needs a reprint?”  It’s the sad truth but without literally reprinting the entirety of 8th, 9th, and Mirrodin block through Scars block we will continue to see these types of spikes.  Cards get popular “out of no where” and there isn’t a good way to fix it.  I will just say we stop speculating on cards with low supply because they have low supply.  Spellskite was a case where it was reprinted recently and had low supply and was creeping up for weeks.  You can’t avoid those situations but you can avoid Auriok Champion.

Tarmogoyfsnapcaster

Rerprint Information Cascade

When was the last time you heard someone complain about the cost of Tarmogoyf or Snapcaster Mage?  Snapcasters are $53 as of this writing on TCGplayer and €53 on Magic Card Market.  That’s a 30% drop since his spike in July of last year.  Why hasn’t he moved at all since then?  People forgot.  He’s not in the spotlight.  Twin hasn’t won anything recently (yet) and they are expecting the promo to bring his price down.  I’ve got bad news if you’re one of those people.

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This is the last year of Liliana of the Veil’s pricing.  It’s from the same set as Snapcaster Mage and it is twice as rare.  Liliana was given out for a year as the RPTQ promo and didn’t dent her price tag.  Snapcaster Mage promos will be a smaller percentage of the overall number of Snapcaster Mages so I’m predicting it to go back up if anything.

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We’ve stagnated.  Maybe we’re finally at an equilibrium?  Tarmogoyfs are still too expensive for people who don’t own them but not expensive enough the people who own them want to sell them.  Supply is plentiful but the decks that play them are not so much.  I expect we might see the decline of the mighty Tarmogoyf as less and less people are in the position to purchase them.  It might even get so low it’s not included in the assumed Modern Masters 2017.  It’s still by far the most expensive card in Modern but nobody is complaining.  I’m not sure how I feel about that level of apathy.

 

Oath of the Gatewatch

I’m gonna rapid fire my thoughts because I’ve already written a lot and will probably cover it more next week.

  • Why is there no black Oath?  Will Liliana get one on Innistrad? Kinda confused why black got screwed again on a cool cycle (ever notice there are no black miracles?)
  • Colorless requirements are a bit more harder to achieve than people think.  I don’t think 3 color decks are particularly well equipped to cast them yet.
  • Kozilek’s Return is going to define Standard.  Get ready to not be able to ride a single Monastery Mentor to victory.
  • World Breaker is by far the best card to use to trigger Kozilek’s Return.  I think his $4 price tag is suspiciously low.  If you’re interested in getting a standard deck you can keep for a while, Eldrazi Ramp will be good for the forseeable future.
  • There are a lot of “looks good on paper” rares in this set.  Consequently not everything can work out so don’t rush out to buy playsets of everything.  Sealed product is not miserable due to flatness of the prices.

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  • Ruin in their Wake is not Rampant Growth.  Rampant Growth, like 1 mana Elves, are too caustic for Standard.

 

Until next time folks, hopefully we don’t have a run on another set of Modern cards.

PROTRADER: A Cheapskate Casual’s Guide to the Last Three Years of MTG

With Modern prices going crazy lately, now seems like a reasonable time to review some cards one might want to acquire before they too increase in price. As Jason Alt often tells us, a rising bite lifts all toads (or something), so there’s reason to expect that a lot of Modern stuff that is also played casually is going to increase soon, too.

If you’ve been waiting on picking up something from the last three years, now may be the time. Let’s go through in detail and see what seems primed for an increase, compared to what should be avoided at all costs.

Disclosure: While I have a couple Commander decks, Cube is my main interest when it comes to casual MTG. So I’ll try to touch on some Commander staples, but my knowledge base and interest is much more Cube-centric. Additionally, a lot of these cards are also good in eternal formats, so we’ll be looking at quite a few competitive cards today, too.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

PROTRADER: Lingering Thoughts From All the Hype

I want to kick off this article with some impressive numbers from the MTG Stocks Interests page.

  • 10: the number of cards that have more than doubled in value since last week
  • 21: the number of cards that have risen by at least 50% in value since last week

Next, I’d like to break that group of 21 cards a different way, attempting to categorize them by format. I’ll admit I’m making assumptions here but for the sake of discussion, this should be accurate enough.

  • 13: Modern cards
  • 6: Commander cards
  • 2: Old School cards

These numbers alone could be the basis for a multitude of articles. One could discuss the sheer number of movers and shakers on the MTG market. Someone else could write about the top Modern movers and highlight what they think is coming next (essentially what I tackled last week). Others still could focus on Commander, sharing their thoughts on the recent surge in prices of certain cards and relating this to the newest set of Commander decks that have now saturated the market.

And don’t worry, I don’t plan on dwelling on about Old School MTG except for one thought worth your attention: when I uncheck Alpha, Beta and Unlimited from set exclusions on MTG Stocks, I see an additional four Old School cards that have increased in value over 50% last week. The format’s impact is real even if you don’t believe the format itself is worth considering.

So What Is the Topic?

So much has been going on in MTG finance lately, and I have found myself chasing numerous buyouts and speculation opportunities. Someone will observe a card with low stock on TCG Player, make a comment, and suddenly the card will blow up in price. This is essentially what happened to Spellskite, and the rapid rise in top buy list price suggests this surge is here to stay for at least the short term, though a small pullback is likely.

Spellskite

The same goes for Inquisition of Kozilek ($12 buy price at Channel Fireball) and a number of other Modern staples.

As I scramble to keep up with this volatile market, two things linger in the back of my mind. It’s these two murmuring thoughts, which I believe many will overlook, that make up the subject of this week’s article.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY