Monthly Archives: June 2016

James Chillcott, MTG Fast Finance

MTG Fast Finance: Episode 21 (June 24th)

by Cliff Daigle (@wordofcommander) & James Chillcott (@mtgcritic)

MTG Fast Finance is a weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: June 17th

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Promise of Bunrei (Saviors of Kamigawa)
Start: $2.00
Finish: $5.50
Gain: +$3.50 (+175%)

Nimbus Maze (Future Sight)
Start: $7.50
Finish: $20.00
Gain: +$12.50 (+167%)

Moat (Legends)
Start: $350.00
Finish: $800.00
Gain: +$450.00 (+129%)

Flickerwisp (Foil, Eventide)
Start: $9.00
Finish: $15.00
Gain: +$6.00 (+67%)

Toxic Deluge (Foil, Eternal Masters)
Start: $50.00
Finish: $90.00
Gain: +$40.00 (+80%)

Belbe’s Portal (Foil, Nemesis)
Start: $13.50
Finish: $21.00
Gain: +$7.50 (+56%)

Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale (Legends)
Start: $1100
Finish: $1450
Gain: $350 (+32%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James’ Picks:

  1. Pyroblast (Foil, Eternal Masters)
    •  Confidence Level: 8
    • Buy Price: $35
    • Sell Target: $50 (+43%)
    • Hold Time: 0-12+ months
  2. The Gitrog Monster (Foil, Shadows Over Innistrad)
    • Confidence Level: 7
    • Buy Price: $13
    • Sell Price: $20 (+54%)
    • Hold Time: (6-12+ months)
  3.  Tireless Tracker (Foil, Shadows Over Innistrad)
    • Confidence Level: 6
    • Buy Price: $10
    • Sell Price: $15 (+50%)
    • Hold Time: (12+ months)

Cliff’s Picks:

  1. Linvala, the Preserver (Oath of the Gatewatch)
    • Confidence Level: 8
    • Buy Price: $3
    • Sell Price: $8 (+167%)
    • Hold Time: 6+ months
  2. Eldrazi Mimic (Foil, Shadows Over Innistrad)
    • Confidence Level: 6
    • Buy Price: $5
    • Sell Price: $10 (+100%)
    • Hold Time: 12+ months
  3. Meren of Clan Nel Toth (C15)
    • Confidence Level: 7
    • Buy Price: $7
    • Sell Price:  $15 (+114%)
    • Hold Time: 12+ months

Disclosure: Cliff and James own some of the cards on their pick list.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

The Standard SCG Open in Orlando on June 18th was the big tournament of the week. The usual suspects dominated the top tables including WR Humans, GW Tokens and 4-Color Rites decks. An Abzan Season’s Past deck in the hands of Jeff Hoogland made Top 8. In the Modern Classic an Esper Zur, the Enchanter list made 6th place running four copies of both Zur and Geist of Saint Traft as well as four copies of Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week

Early Eldritch Moon spoilers were the topic this week. Cliff was underwhelmed by Ulrich, the spoiled werewolf commander. Eldrazi Wish seemed likely to show up in Modern or Legacy eventually. James thinks the new Emrakul is more powerful than most are giving it credit for.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

James Chillcott, MTG Fast Finance

MTG Fast Finance: Episode 20 (June 17th)

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by Cliff Daigle (@wordofcommander) & James Chillcott (@mtgcritic)

MTG Fast Finance is a weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: June 17th

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Day’s Undoing (Origins)
Start: $3.00
Finish: $4.00
Gain: +$1.00 (+33%)

Force of Will (Foil, Eternal Masters)
Start: $325.00
Finish: $500.00
Gain: +$175.00 (+54%)

Mystical Tutor (Foil, Eternal Masters)
Start: $20.00
Finish: $32.00
Gain: +$12.00 (+60%)

Bridge from Below (Modern Masters)
Start: $6.61
Finish: $10.65
Gain: +$4.04 (+61%)

Thought Lash (Alliances)
Start: $1.50
Finish: $5.00
Gain: +$3.50 (+232%)

Crystal Quarry (Foil, Odyssey)
Start: $10.00
Finish: $25.00
Gain: +$15 (+150%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James’ Picks:

  1. Eldrazi Displacer (Foil, Oath of the Gatewatch)
    •  Confidence Level: 8
    • Buy Price: $10
    • Sell Target: $20 (+100%)
    • Hold Time: 0-12+ months
  2. Sneak Attack (Eternal Masters)
    • Confidence Level: 7
    • Buy Price: $20
    • Sell Price: $30 (+50%)
    • Hold Time: (6-12+ months)
  3. Wasteland (Eternal Masters)
    • Confidence Level: 7
    • Buy Price: $43
    • Sell Price: $60 (+39%)
    • Hold Time: (6-12+ months)

Cliff’s Picks:

  1. Behold the Beyond (BFZ)
    • Confidence Level: 6
    • Buy Price: $1
    • Sell Price: $5 (+400%)
    • Hold Time: 12+ months
  2. Jace, Unraveler of Secrets (SOI)
    • Confidence Level: 7
    • Buy Price: $4
    • Sell Price: $10 (+400%)
    • Hold Time: 12+ months
  3. Vampiric Tutor">Vampiric Tutor (Foil, EMA)
    • Confidence Level: 8
    • Buy Price: $100
    • Sell Price:  $150 (+50%)
    • Hold Time: 6-12+ months

Disclosure: Cliff and James own some of the cards on their pick list.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

At GP Columbus and Prague, Legacy was the format in the spotlight this week. Infect took down Columbus, while Storm was the winner in Europe. Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy made a notable appearance in the Top 8 Reanimator deck from Columbus as a 2-of. Ten of the top 128 decks were various flavors of Eldrazi.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week

Eternal Masters inventory seemed to be significantly less than expected by many observers. Singles inventory already low for many key cards given that the set was just released, and looks likely to stay that way. Buyouts on key cards like Force of Will have already started.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: The Psychology of Classic Buyouts

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We’ve been here before.

You know the feeling – you’ve been eyeing a card for a while, saving resources and trying to find the right condition at the right price.  The card’s price stable for years, showing only modest growth.  Then it happens.

Moat

Suddenly that card you were eager to acquire disappears from the internet, only to be replaced by copies that cost nearly twice the price as previous.  This time the buyout happened with Moat, but it has taken many other forms recently: Library of Alexandria, The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Bazaar of Baghdad, Tetravus, Guardian Beast, etc.  The list really does go on and on.

When the spike happens on a card you were eyeing, you develop a terrible feeling in the pit of your stomach.  “Why didn’t I just buy the copy when I had the chance?” you may wonder.  For me, this most notably occurred about 5 years ago, when I had funds for an MP Unlimited Black Lotus for the first time in my Magic career.  But instead of grabbing that copy from Star City Games I hesitated – we all know how that story turned out.

Why do these trends happen?  Why do we have these emotional reactions when cards spike – even cards that weren’t necessarily on our radar?  What should we do from here?  This week I’ll break down the psychology of the classic card buyout and try to explain when you know you’re too late to chase.

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Casual Fridays

Being Optimistic

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Once in a while, I like to give in to my wild-eyed dreams and enjoy some pure, unproven speculation. Today I want to tell you about a few cards that I’m thinking about right now, which have the potential to do very well if something goes right.

Earthcraft (currently $33): This is a Reserved List card that does some absolutely bonker things. It’s so good, in fact, that it’s banned in Legacy.

It’s a combo with a lot of cards, and Commander will showcase all of them. Squirrel Nest? Goblin Warrens? Sacred Mesa plus a Wild Growth land? The list goes on and on.

What needs to happen: It gets unbanned in Legacy. Worldgorger Dragon had this happen, and the resulting spike was amazing.

Wizards said at the time that it was a combo card that needed restricting. Well, yes, you can do some busted things with it but are they worse than the Dragon/Animate Dead loop? Or Splinter Twin?

I think this comes off the list eventually. No idea when it happens, but at that time, I think you’ll see this card double up immediately and then settle down at $50. A lot of the supply on this has been soaked up by Commander, and I’m not sure how many of those players would cash in a spiking card that will never be reprinted.

Eye of Ugin: (currently $10,$13 for nonfoils, and $20, $40, $80 for foil versions)

So this was hot hot HOT when ‘Eldrazi Winter’ started, and the Expeditions were near $200. This has three printings and the pack foil is twice the price of the Modern Masters version, due to the rarity shift.

Eye is too good for Modern. It is amazing early and late, and that was the criteria used to ban Deathrite Shaman.

What needs to happen: Legacy Eldrazi needs to prove itself as a consistent player.

Legacy has four lands that could produce two colorless for Eldrazi: Eye, Temple, City of Traitors, and Ancient Tomb. The broken starts in Modern could be a more regular occurrence and Eye is the only one that powers stuff out early and then searches up more to do if a late game is reached.

If that happens, the Expedition versions will pop. Not to their previous heights, but $140 is in range.

I’m not sure at what point people who bought at more than $150 will give in and cash out, but there’s a chance that those collectors/investors just wait it out and that might keep some copies out of circulation.
Berserk (about $100 for Unlimited or FtV, $150 for Beta and $350 for Alpha)

There was a not-small amount of surprise for me. I had thought this was a Reserved List card, but no, it’s legal. They could put it in Standard tomorrow.

They have come close, though. Cards can grant advantage but there’s nothing this good this cheap. Temur Battle Rage can do some sick things but Berserk is the best pump spell ever, beating out Wildsize.

What needs to happen: Old School (93/94, if you’re feeling sassy) needs to grow even more.

Old School Magic is a fun format, and if it continues to grow, Berserk is only one of the cards that’s going to go up significantly. It’s also a fantastic Cube card and the potential for fun is there in Commander. Double up damage on someone else’s creature and then it’s no longer a problem.

But for the card to take off, and not just creep upward, it’s got to gain traction in a larger way. Lots of people like it, but this needs to be long term and consistent. It’s not in major events yet but if side events at GPs and such become more commonplace, then the sky is the limit.

Well, not the sky, really, more like $150 for the Unlimited and the From the Vault versions. I know some people are hellbent on no white borders but the biggest growth is found when you have a lower buy-in.

I don’t think that 93/94 is going to go the way of Tiny Leaders, but it does need to be bigger than Duel Commander. In favor of it, is that the people who care put a lot of time and energy and piles of money into this endeavor. Someone who works that hard for a format is not going to abandon it easily, and that’s the spirit we want in order to have a format grow and prosper.