The Watchtower: 11/21/16

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And watch this YouTube channel to keep up to date with Cartel Aristocrats, a fun and informative webcast with several other finance personalities!


Copperline Gorge

Price Last Week: $10
Price Today: $10
Possible Price: $25

Last week’s Watchtower started with a Scars of Mirrodin fastland, so I figured I’d do the same this week. With this weekend’s World Magic Cup in the books, it’s clear that Dredge is going to be a mainstay tier 1 deck until people are playing four main deck Rest in Peace or Wizards buries Golgari Grave-Troll again. Until either of those happen, Dredge will show up at every Modern event, and in every Dredge deck you’ll see Copperline Gorge.

Almost always run as a full playset, Copperline Gorge is exactly the type of land Dredge wants access to. It’s a dual land that comes down untapped with no drawbacks for the first three turns of the game, which is the most crucial window for a strategy this aggressive. Dredge isn’t the only deck looking to leverage the early explosive power of this type of land either — we see Naya Burn pick up copies of Gorge when that pops up in results too.

Gorge has climbed to $10 on the back of Dredge’s success, and I don’t think it’s done ascending. Blackcleave Cliffs was $25 when Jund was at its peak, and with the amount of play Gorge is seeing, it could land right there as well. Even if it doesn’t make it all the way to $25, there’s a lot of room in between there and $10. Blackcleave Cliffs was the first SOM dual to break out, and it looks like it’s finally time for the others to follow suit.

 

Eldrazi Displacer (Foil)


Price Last Week: $11
Price Today: $12
Possible Price: $30

If you listen to MTG Fast Finance, you’ll know James and I are fans of Eldrazi. Pick any of them, foil or not, and they likely have a rosy outlook. There’s one that’s especially appealing though, and that’s Eldrazi Displacer.

This popped up on my radar once more after looking through the WMC results and seeing Bant Eldrazi everywhere. Part of the appeal of Eldrazi in a team constructed format is that it doesn’t overlap much with other strategies, of course, but that doesn’t mean it can’t stand on its own two…four-ish…appendages in a normal tournament. Bant Eldrazi has been consistently performing at Modern events for months, despite suffering a dramatic setback in early 2016 when Eye of Ugin was banned.

Eldrazi Displacer is regularly a four-of in the deck, working to incapacitate blockers, rebuy Thought-Knot Seer triggers, and provide a never-ending stream of Scion tokens with Drowner of Hope. Beyond the Bant build, we also see Displacer filling a similar role in the White Weenie/Taxes builds floating around in tier 2 or 3 as well. And to top it all off, it’s an EDH all-star that fits in nearly every deck that produces white mana.

Foils are about $11 to $12, and they’ve never been much cheaper. As we approach the one year anniversary of Oath of the Gatewatch, copies are going to continue to get scarcer. With demand across multiple decks and multiple formats, I don’t see foils staying this cheap forever.

 

Nourishing Shoal


Price Last Week: $6
Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $15

A year or so back the world fell in love with Grishoalbrand, a brutal combo deck that had lie dormant in the format for years. It combines the draw power of Grislebrand, the life gain of Nourishing Shoal exiling Worldspine Wurm, and oddly enough, the odd card advantage of arcane. We haven’t seen too much of the strategy in the last couple months, but it popped back up at the WMC, reminding everyone that it is indeed viable, in no small part thanks to its turn two kills. Most of the components are known quantities at this point — Goryo’s Vengeance and Through the Breach chief among them. There’s one piece in particular, though, that’s appealing.

Nourishing Shoal is a key component of the strategy and utterly irreplaceable; there is no card in Modern that approximates this effect. With a single printing during Kamigawa, supply on Shoal is as low as they come for a Modern-legal rare. As a uncuttable 4-of in a powerful combo deck with highly restricted supply, the price stability on this is tenuous at best.

When Grishoalbrand was first introduced to the world, Shoal spiked quickly. Since then, the price has tempered and fallen to $6. Next time this spikes, it won’t be so fast to fall. During the first spike all sorts of copies come out of the woodwork — bulk boxes, trade binders, and $1 rare binders all get looted. Next time, that supply won’t be there to raid, and the price is going to spike harder, and with more longevity. So long as they don’t ban Simian Spirit Guide, this is bound for $15+ eventually.

 

Lantern of Insight


Price Last Week: $2.50
Price Today: $2.50
Possible Price: $8

An aberration originally, a showcase of Modern-legal cards Wizards wishes weren’t, Lantern Control has since cemented its place in the format tier structure. Right in the middle of it all is the eponymous Lantern of Insight. Lantern is an uncommon from Fifth Dawn, the fourth-oldest set in Modern. Just as Nourishing Shoal has just about the least supply possible for a Modern Rare, the same is true for Lantern of Insight and uncommons.

Perhaps most tellingly, the price on Lantern has spiked hard online over the past two weeks. Online price trajectories are often an excellent indicator of paper behavior, so this is important to notice. Many times over have we seen prices move rapidly online, only to see something similar happen in paper a few short weeks later.

One only needs to look to Mishra’s Bauble to see what mythic uncommons can do in Modern when it comes to price tags. I don’t foresee Lantern being quite that successful, as it’s only found in one deck, but that doesn’t rule out gains entirely. I’d say that high single digits is a comfortable price for this card as a low-supply archetype-defining uncommon.

Brainstorm Brewery #214 – Help Us Prank Corbin

Corbin never listens to the episode so after he got off of the group call we decided to have you help us prank him. If you all wouldn’t mind tweeting at him to mention how savagely we burned him at the end of the episode, that would be awesome. Don’t be specific, just mention the burn was savage in its intensity and unprecedented in its animosity. He’ll finally listen to an episode of Brainstorm Brewery and there will be nothing. That’ll teach him. Also, this episode was pretty good.

Keep an eye out for Teespring

Help us get back the listeners we lost

That is all. Thank you.

Douglas Johnson is our guest (@Rose0fthorns)
Eternal Masters Reprint?!??!
Breaking Bulk is super early.
GW Tron and what it means
“Borygamos”
Pick of the Week
Play Politicats with Jason. Make Ameowica great again.
Support our Patreon! DO IT. You know this cast makes you more than $1 a week
Need to contact us? Hit up BrainstormBrew@gmail.com

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Douglas Johnson is and will forever be merely a guest

Reprint Mania!

This year, we’ve had a tremendous number of cards reprinted.

In order:

February: Duel Deck: Blessed vs. Cursed

June: Eternal Masters

August: From the Vault: Lore

August: Conspiracy: Take the Crown

September: Duel Deck: Nissa vs. Ob Nixilis

November: Commander 2016

November: Planechase Anthology

This doesn’t count the reprints in regular sets or the Masterpieces in Kaladesh. Also, the Standard Showdown packs are adding to the numbers of cards in circulation.

Take a moment and think about this list. Every card you have, every card you purchase, runs the risk of a reprint. I’ve talked before about how hesitant I am to speculate on a large quantity of cards because the reprint train is never stopping.

We already know that next year has another round of Modern Masters in March, as well as a Commander anthology in June. The only truly safe cards are those on the Reserved List, and it doesn’t matter if you agree with the philosophy, it’s one they are sticking to.

I also admit that I’ve totally given up on predicting what they will do when it comes to reprints. Putting Iona, Shield of Emeria in both the FTV and the Modern Masters last summer is a move that perplexes me beyond anything else.

At the same time, we are back to one rotation per year, which conversely makes Standard a lot more appealing for speculative purposes.

So what’s an aware, educated Magic financier to do?

Rule #1: Keep Quantities Reasonable

Everyone who’s tried to make money off this game has their horror stories and a box full of cards that should have paid off but never did. I don’t want to highlight anyone else’s misses, though I can think of them. I confess to owning more than 50 Prophet of Kruphix, though.

If you have a spare playset or two of a card, your exposure is limited. If you want to go crazy deep and pick up a couple hundred copies, you’re putting a lot of money at risk, especially if it’s a card that might get reprinted.

Long-term holds are basically crapshoots. I traded for thirty copies of Thespian’s Stage when it was new and less than a dollar, and I had to dodge a reprint in every casual-oriented set for it to get to the $3 it’s at now. Believe me, I had confidence in the long-term appeal of the card, but I also knew how easily it would be added to just about anything.

Rule #2: Foils When Possible, Except in Standard

It’s a truism that Standard foils are a trap. Standard players don’t generally feel the need to foil out a deck as often as Cube, Commander, Modern, or Legacy players do.

If you think a card is going to have appeal in non-Standard formats, and you’re willing to get in at a higher number, then foils are far safer. It’s not a guarantee, not at all, but it’s harder to print foil versions. On the list above, only Eternal Masters and Conspiracy 2 had foil versions of cards, and the From the Vault foiling is so unpretty that many collector-players stay away.

Here’s the caveat, though: future Masterpiece sets are a dark cloud hanging over future prices. We’ve had lands, and we currently have artifacts. This leaves us creatures, spells, and enchantments. Perhaps one set will be instants, and another sorceries. Wouldn’t be surprising.

Picking up a Masterpiece version of a card generally puts a ceiling on the previous foil versions. Foil Chromatic Lantern from Return to Ravnica will never be more expensive than the Masterpiece version. I’m surprised that the Invention version of Sol Ring has a price so close to the Judge version.

Rule #3: Be Prepared to Lose

This is perhaps the most important rule when it comes to reprints. Sometimes, you’re going to get hit. Even when your card starts to show signs of growing, something happens and it stays worthless.

Accept this. It’s going to happen. It’s not just about a missed spec, it’s something that could have been amazing but instead it’s just cardboard that you can’t even light on fire effectively.

(pause to look at my stack of Prophets and sigh)

If you’re going to play this aspect of Magic: the Gathering, you have to be prepared to not just be wrong. That’s bad enough. You have to be ready for your card to start to take off and then circumstances change and your card craters.

Imagine having a stack of Ruinous Path, and then in Shadows over Innistrad, they decided to reprint Hero’s Downfall. That’s a gut punch right in the wallet. Strictly better reprints are rare, as are emergency bannings, but they are factors you have to be ready for.

PROTRADER: The Fall

What I want to talk about today falls more under the realm of Magic economics, not Magic finance. I want to explore a couple different concepts that may turn out to be farfetched, but have nonetheless grasped my attention. This is going to be largely theoretical at first, as there is a wide-range of stated positions even within the involved parties. Lastly, this is not an indictment (yet) of any political figure, organization or belief; although my personal views are probably somewhat apparent. My goal here is not to insult or inflame, merely to play out some scenarios that could have a tangible impact on Magic. I realize that in the grand scheme of things that a card game is not the top priority on everyone’s list, but perhaps you can apply the thinking to other aspects of your life. What I’m building towards is evergreen information, but the potential causes are in this case shaped by recent political events.

Make Dominaria Great Again!
Make Dominaria Great Again!

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