Unlocked Pro Trader: Meet the New Captain, Same as the Old Captain

March 20, 2018 Jason Alt 3 Comments

Everything old is new again and everything new seems to care about everything old. The Weatherlight has a new captain and while it’s not a Green/White creature, she is a creature a lot of people have been waiting on for a long time. We finally got the “Izzet-colored, arifacts matter” commander that people have been clamoring for and while she is sort of… linear, she also has a few surprises in that her card drawing triggers off of more than just artifacts. Let’s look at the card, shall we?

We can’t look at the card. Despite the fact that we have all of the information about the card, and it leaked because of a mistake Wizards made, they have decided that unveiling the art when they had planned to will still be exciting and it’s sort of hard to argue. Leaks like this are garbage. I saw someone compare it to sneaking downstairs the night before Christmas and peeking at all of your presents so you’re not surprised on Christmas morning and I’m not sure I agree. To me, it’s like finding out Santa Claus isn’t real and your parents got you socks. Also, I’m in my 30s and I was pissed off this year because no one got me socks. I had to buy my own socks like a peasant. I guess what I’m trying to say is that if I weren’t a financier, I wouldn’t have even looked at these stupid leaks and it’s a good thing I looked because this is the second commander I came across that is going to build a very linear, obvious way and that will bump a lot of cards.

Card Bumps, You Say?

Yeah, man, why you think we’re here if not to talk about the money we’re about to scoop up because we’re even farther ahead of the curve than normal? While it sucks that these leaks happened, the silver lining is that we have a few extra weeks to predict what EDH players are going to build when they finally get ahold of the cards. Normally there is a gap between cards coming out and people buying them in large enough quantities for prices to move but this time the gap will be even larger since we can start thinking about what to buy now. Let’s make the most of this time and look at what I expect to end up in Jhoira decks.

The first thing to remember is that Planeswalkers are now Legendary so they are eligible for the trigger and may get jammed into decks alongside Jhoira.

Dack Fayden

With no real impetus for an impending reprint and a lot of this card’s meteoric past rise being predicated on use in formats where people may want more than one copy, how well this pairs with Jhoira could see it gain a few bucks in the coming months. I don’t know what sort of adoption it would need to really go up based on being a one-of in one EDH deck and with so many Legendary creatures being printed in Dominaria and with Commander 2018 promising to be packed with value, we could see a logjam in new decks being built with no clear winner presenting itself, but with the amount of clamoring we’ve seen for Jhoira, I expect this to over-perform relative to other commanders. But there I go again, listening to what people say they want like an idiot.

Saheeli Rai

Currently made out of plutonium, people are dumping copies of this part of a banned combo as fast as they can. At their absolute floor, copies of this card are a steal and those abilities are all really nuts in an artifact-based EDH deck and, hey, playing Saheeli happens to draw you a card, too. Saheeli should be really cozy with Jhoira and their fates are intertwined, meaning if Jhoira is as popular as everyone claims they want it to be, we could see a nice price recovery for this card.

Tamiyo, The Moon Sage

I don’t want to spend too much of my verbal budget on Planeswalkers since this was supposed to just be a bullet point in the larger point I was making, but I found more good planeswalkers than I expected. Tamiyo isn’t really going anywhere but it sure equilibrated higher than anyone would have thought. This is good alongside Jhoira and it’s also an expensive, powerful planeswalker and its current malaise might be snapped by renewed interest. I also have the least confidence in this of every ‘walker I suggested.

Tezzeret, the Seeker

Modern Masters 2015 was a while ago and while this hasn’t begun to recover yet, I don’t think another reprinting is imminent and I think as good as this is, it’s going to tick back up. It probably has some unknown amount of competition from unprinted Planeswalkers. It seems like every time I get a handle on what Planeswalkers are supposed to do, they print another 30 in a a 12 month period and it throws everything off. This is a better than average planeswalker and it is blue and it deals with artifacts and that has to be enough.

What Else?

Well, it isn’t just Planeswalkers that trigger her ability and I think she is going to be a good either eggs or storm commander. I am excited.

Aetherflux Reservoir

The non-foil is on a downward trend approaching rotation…

As is the foil. I think both are good picksups then, I think reprint risk is pretty low and I think this is a solid EDH finisher in Oloro, which is a Top 3 deck of all time in popularity as well as a great inclusion in a lot of storm and spellslinger decks. Its EDHREC profile shows some pretty robust inclusion and speaks to its versatility and ubiquity. More lifelink or lifegain-focused decks coming along only adds new interest in this card and that’s particularly good for a foil that has demonstrated the ability to flirt with $8 while still in-print. I don’t know how much lower foils of this get but this is a no-brainer pickup.

Helm of Awakening

Helping your opponents isn’t always great, but 3,005 people on EDHREC have decided they’d rather play a card that they can really abuse and allow opponents get some tangential benefit from than not play it and here we are. Cheaper and more accessible than Stone Calendar and cheaper mana-wise, too, this is a card I keep seeing pop up in Jhoira lists and I expect that to continue. This makes eggs even better as you get to play them for cheap or free and use their mana to freewheel the activation on the next egg, letting you chaing them. Combine that with the double draw trigger and you will always have a full mitt. This also turns cards like Sensei’s Top into free cantrips and generally makes it easier to go off early in the game. We’ve seen rares from this block hit $10 with less provocation.

Semblance Anvil

This is looking pretty healthy. It’s fluctuating but the overall trend is upward and with a set-specific keyword, its reprint options are somewhat limited (though set-specific keywords have never stopped them from jamming the card in a Commander precon which is the worst case scenario). I honestly think this card has been secretly way better than people give it credit for and I have no idea why it doesn’t get more play. If you name artifacts, you just dump your hand and if you have a Vedalken Archmage in your command zone ready to go at all times, you fill your hand as fast as you can dump it.

Unwinding Clock

Whereas here, I can’t find any possible way to balance this ability against anything in the other precon decks, so anything with an artifact focus would be too good with this and any deck with this but no apparent artifact focus couldn’t really justify the slot. Therefore, I think this would be a very unlikely reprint in a Commander precon. I don’t know if that further limits its reprintability compared with something like Semblance Anvil but I do think it’s unlikely to be in a Commander precon. They invent 5 new sealed products a year, so never say never, but I bet this grows for years and I bet you feel silly for not getting these a few years ago when EDH proved what a driving force it was. I was celebrating with the triple up I got on Caged Sun (meaning I sold them way too early) and I missed an even more obvious card in hindsight.

I think there are a few more cards that have upside and maybe I’ll cover them next week, maybe I’ll tweet about them, maybe they’ll be in the Gathering Magic piece I wrote this week, maybe I’ll podcast about them, maybe I’ll write an EDHREC article for no reason or maybe I’ll be a guest on someone else’s podcast and talk about them. Follow me all over, I have so many insights I can’t hold them all and they fall out of my grasp like hilarious, errant citrus fruit. All of these finance tips will be lost. Like limes in the rain. Until next time.

Watchtower

UNLOCKED: The Watchtower 3/19/18

March 19, 2018 Travis Allen

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.

After an exciting few weeks with Masters 25 spoilers coming in fast and furious, and Dominaria spoilers immediately after, the past seven days have been a bit more quiet. Nothing new was released today on the Dominaria front, so we don’t know anything now that we didn’t a week ago.

Over on Tumblr Rosewater said that Unstable has been through three printings so far, and if it’s clear there’s enough demand, they’ll fire up a fourth, which got fans of the quirky set jazzed up. If there is such a printing, it’s likely to be the last. There will not be a better chance to get foil basics than the fourth run.

Masters 25 is finally in players hands, and aside from a suspect collation error, there doesn’t appear to be a “priceless treasures” set gimmick. No bonus’ or perks or anything exciting that we didn’t know prior to release. Which means what differentiates Masters 25 from every other masters set is a decrease in card quality, I guess. Happy 25th anniversary, Magic! Your cards are of worse quality today than they were in 1993.

As Foretold (Foil & Non-Foil)

Price Today: $7/20
Possible Price: $15/50

Without a doubt I’ve mentioned As Foretold in the past. Yet I still feel compelled to bring your attention to it today, because I want to make sure you’re aware of what’s going on.

192 players showed up in Rome for an MKM event, and a Living End deck landed in the 3/4th place spot. What’s cool about this is that it wasn’t your typical Living End build. Rather than the Jund lists we’re familiar with, this was (basically) a mono-blue version. It’s got an Urborg, and some Collective Brutalities in the board, and of course Living End, but other than that, basically every spell the deck is going to cast is blue. It uses Street Wraith and 10 other Amonkhet block cycling creatures as the horde, and then uses As Foretold to cast the eponymous spell (and Ancestral Visions as well).

I’ve been a fan of As Foretold for awhile, and this is yet another use case. Is mono-blue Living End set to take over Modern? Who knows. Probably not. But it reinforces how good As Foretold is looking. Non-foils are hanging around $7, and supply is certainly moving downwards. I’ve no idea how long it will take to get into the sub-20 copy range, but it’s headed in that direction. Foils meanwhile are nearly gone, with scant few available at $20. They’re likely to pop first, possibly up to $50, with non-foils set to at least double up a few months later.

Desert Cerodon (Foil)

Price Today: $.75
Possible Price: $4

I’m talking about Living End a lot today. I’m allowed to.

Not only did a new mono-blue version pop up, but I’m seeing the standard version on mtgtop8.com here and there as well. I suspect that being able to cascade into Living End at instant speed will always be at least semi-relevant.

After Amonkhet, the deck went through some changes, particularly to its creature suite. Three of the cycling bodies are now from Amonkhet; Archfiend of Ifnir, Horror of the Broken Lands, and Desert Cerodon. Archfiend of Ifnir was a Buy-A-Box and also had prerelease foils, so supply is higher there than it would be on a normal rare. Horror was also just printed in Masters 25, so there’s an additional glut of supply. Now only two creatures remain unreprinted: Monstrous Carabid, which I’ve discussed here before, and Desert Cerodon. Which I’m discussing now.

At maybe $.50 to $.75 each, it wouldn’t take too much to triple or even quadruple. Normally I’m not a fan of $1 to $4 spikes, since so much of your profits is eaten by overhead (price of a stamp, the time, etc.). What’s nice here is that you get to sell playsets if you sell any at all. Paying $2 for a set that you then ship for $15 is much, much more appealing. “The Dream,” as they say.

Legion’s Landing

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $13

And now for something I do quite rarely — discuss Standard cards.

Recently it came to my attention that Dan Fournier brewed up his own Wescoe Check, making use of Sram’s Expertise and Legion’s Landing. He’s put the deck through at least two versions now, with a 5-0 in his first league, and those two cards have remained a steadfast playset in each.

Several of the cards in the list are set to rotate, such as Angel of Invention, but Legion’s Landing obviously won’t be. Rotation would kill the deck, of course, but that’s not actually a barrier to prices on Landing spiking. People recognize that the deck won’t make it past October, but Landing will, and if it’s good here and now, it will still probably be good (and importantly, Legal) later this fall.

If Dan’s got white lightning on his hands here, people could begin flocking to a cool token-based Standard strategy with Legion’s Landing at its core, with the hope that it will pivot to a new strategy in the Fall.

I promise nothing, nor am I telling you this is a home run. It’s an interesting card in an interesting deck, and worth keeping an eye on.

Travis Allen has been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

[/hide]

Brainstorm Brewery

Brainstorm Brewery #280 Horobi’s Death Whale

March 16, 2018 Jason Alt

Corbin (@Chosler88) is back this week and bring the professionalism of Bill O’Rilley to the cast as Jason (@jasonEalt ) and DJ (@Rose0fThorns) welcome MtG historian & personality Brain David Marshall (@Top8Games) to the show this week to talk about all things magic, movies, and comics. Make sure to visit BDM’s Kickstarter for The Totally Unstuck Adventures of Anna Chronos: Second Hands

Also, make sure to check us out on Youtube https://www.youtube.com/user/BrainstormBrewery

Corbin gets us kicked from youtube
The Martin Muller interview
Anna Chronos Adventures
Disaster movies
Spreading Lies about Theros Block (it was actually fun)
Take my Energy (in standard)
Breaking Bulk
Bulk or not
“Leaks are bad and stuff…”
Pick of the week
Movies
Send us your emails!
Support our Patreon!
Need to contact us? Hit up BrainstormBrew@gmail.com

Casual Fridays

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Pre-release movement on Masters 25

March 16, 2018 Cliff Daigle

Here we are, the release weekend for Masters 25 and we’ve got an oddity: People have been able to draft this set online for a week now. Will that change the in-person experience? Hopefully not, but tell me how that goes.

Opening A25 packs is a real rollercoaster. There are, as of this writing, 18 rares and mythics that are at the MSRP of $10 for the pack. That leaves 50 of them that aren’t, so you’ve got a 26% chance of getting your money back from one pack.

For an equivalent set of odds, I need you to flip a coin, twice, and have it come up heads both times.

Then do that three times, for the three packs you’d open in a draft.

The format looks pretty fun, but from a financial standpoint, it’s terrible value. There’s stores offering you a free pack if you open a Tree of Redemption, and that’s nice, but there’s a lot of clunkers too. The nail in the coffin for the pair of Akromas, Prossh, yet another Armageddon, etc…

There’s really high variance on the foils as well, and take foil Prossh immediately.

What I want to look at today is the trend lines for some of the cards. All of them are downward, as befits a set that is going from pre-order hype to being opened, but some of these are really impressive and with only six weeks until Dominaria, it’s time to get the wallets ready.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor (price on 2/26: $140, today $105)

He’s down about 30% so far and clearly isn’t done as the market gluts this weekend with everyone tearing open their boxes. On eBay, I see some Buy it Now in the $90 range and even that I’m not big on.

Not going to be available for $20, sorry. (probably)

This summer, we’re getting Signature Spellbook: Jace for $20 and that’s not going to contain JTMS. Let’s be clear about that. Wizards isn’t that crazy. I’m 99% sure they won’t. I’ll let you guess who it’ll be but that’s the last shot at Big Jace for some time.

JTMS is not immediately lighting up Modern. Is he good? Indisputably. Is he broken? No…..t yet. Early results are promising, though. It’s a powerful card that can take over a game, but it’s not a slam-and-win card. I expect Jace’s price to keep sliding, and as the headliner for Masters 25, that doesn’t bode well for the overall value of the set.

My prediction for his price at Dominaria’s release in six weeks: $75 on eBay will get you a copy. You’ll definitely be able to get a playset under $300.

Should you buy at that price: If you’re going to play it, yes. For spec purposes, no. Jace will tick up slowly from this new price point, but the growth will be relatively slow. Even winning a PT isn’t going to do much to his price, it’s not like Liliana of the Veil breaks $200 because it wins. I’d expect that if the price gets too high, he will get reprinted again.

Imperial Recruiter (was $75, now $60)

A Portal: Three Kingdoms card who’s enjoyed in Legacy Aluren, this has mostly been a Cube and Commander card. Let’s not overlook that there’s a judge foil of this already made, so it’s not like Masters 25 has the only reprinting or even the only foil. Yes, this has a sweet watermark but that’s only going to matter to a few people.

Recruiter plus sufficient mana means Kiki-Jiki combo. First one finds KJ, then it gets copied and finds the Pestermite or Exarch, GG. That’s been enough, plus the scarcity of P3K, to keep the price high but the really low demand has this falling and fast. Sure, there’s good stuff you can go find in your EDH deck, but there’s no shortage of tutors already for creatures.

Dominaria price: $40. Mark it down. People will buy one, if that many. The supply will be much greater than the demand. I wouldn’t be shocked to see someone sell a playset for $120 on eBay.

Should you buy at that price: Absolutely not. Get the one you need and then do nothing else with this card.

Rishadan Port (was $60, now $40)

It’s not done, people. There’s BIN on eBay for $35 right now, $30 on TCG, and this is not the . Yes, it’s a four-of in a tier 2 Legacy deck, but that’s it for the demand. The land is terrible in Commander, good in some Cubes, and is a real stay-away for me.

Dominaria price: $25. I won’t be shocked if it’s $20, either. This price was all due to a tiny supply that the judge promo didn’t do much to lower. Now we’re getting a large influx of supply, and this is on top of how most people that wanted to play Death and Taxes already got their Ports. Given the distribution to Wal-Mart and such, it might well be that the circulation of this card as a rare in Masters 25 in 2018 is equal to the number that was originally printed in 1999.

Should you buy at that price: I would get in at $10 a copy, but that’s it. I’d be understanding of the decision to set aside a playset in anticipation of Death and Taxes winning a large event on camera, but that’s a marginal case. There are just so few areas of demand for this card.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (was $14, now $10)

I’m excited about this printing, which came along at the perfect time. Thalia is a star in every format where she can be played, and that includes Commander. Put her in play and then watch the dirty looks people give you. It’s heartwarming. Even better, she’s almost always a four-of, which is what you want in a spec target.

Dominaria price: $6-$7. That’s about where she got to during her last printing and she wasn’t nearly as popular then.

Should you buy at that price: 100% yes. Even Jace will have to pay a Thalia tax, she beats Bloodbraid in a fair fight, and is possibly the two drop you want most in the ever-popular Humans deck. She’ll get back to $15 within a year and $20 not long after that. Be warned, though, that when she makes it up you need to let her go–Wizards is going to reprint her again.

Other quick hits: Vendilion Clique will migrate down to $15 and hold that price, in line with the other printings. Ensnaring Bridge will stop at $30. Blood Moon at $20. The filter lands will stay in the $10 range, except for the blue ones which will be a couple bucks more. Animar, Soul of Elements is an $8 card but the foil will be something ridiculous.

Cliff is an avid Cuber and Commander player, and has a deep love for weird ways to play this amazing game, as well as being guest host on MTGFF when needed. His current project is a light-up sign for attracting Cubers at GPs, so get his attention @wordofcommander on Twitter if you’ve got ideas or designs.

MTGPrice Blog

Monthly Archives: March 2018