Monthly Archives: October 2021

Casual Fridays

The Math of the Castlevania Sorin

All right, everyone, let’s get into the distributions of different Innistrad: Crimson Vow cards. 

Normally, I can’t write this piece after the first day of previews, but they decided to throw me a bone and tell me enough specifics to let me make some pretty good guesses.

So let’s get to the numbers!

We’ve got five ways that a card can be different this time: Extended Art, Eternal Night, Fang Frame, Dracula Series, and Borderless. EA is really for the cards that don’t get one of the other treatments, so let’s take a moment and review what’s getting what, so far.

For each of those treatments, I can’t yet give you exact numbers on most of the cards. For a select few cards, we’ve been told how many versions of a card exist, and that leads to knowing some specifics for the Collector Booster drop rate.

Normally I wouldn’t be too interested in this level of spoiler, but in case you didn’t know, Ayami Kojima is a really big get, as one of the primary artists behind the Castlevania series. I will leave it to your own experiences to determine which is a stronger influence and a more popular crossover, but be aware that there will be a whole other market for this card, just as there was for the Liliana, Dreadhorde General.

We’ve got some numbers, though, and we can compare what the drop rate will be for the Kojima Sorin to the drop rate for other special versions, like the Phyrexian Vorinclex. 

What I can tell you at this point is that in Draft Booster, you’ve got a 1/148 chance of getting a particular mythic rare, and then a 1/74 chance of pulling a particular rare. It gets worse, statistically, from there. 

For Draft Boosters, we know the drop rate goes down. From the Collecting Crimson Vow article: “For each of the Booster Fun (showcase and borderless) cards that shows up in only one version, one out of every three times you open a given card, it will be the Booster Fun version of the card. For cards, such as Sorin the Mirthless, that show up in more than one Booster Fun treatment, the one-in-three Booster Fun version finds are split evenly between borderless and showcase fang frames.”

So you’ll pull a non-foil Kojima Sorin the Mirthless in approximately every 1,332 packs. You’ll have a 1/444 chance of getting a special-frame Sorin, and since the three versions are equally spread, that’s where the 1,332 comes from. The foils in a Draft Booster are tricky to calculate, because only 1:45 cards in Draft Boosters are foils.

For the Collector Boosters, your odds are going to be better, but I can’t say precisely how much better. I need more specific information on how many of each rarity are present for each special frame, but I feel pretty confident saying that it won’t be as rare as the Phyrexian Foil Vorinclex, back in Kaldheim. When that was released, we were told that all the copies of both versions (Showcase and Phyrexian) would add up to the same number of copies as things that didn’t have two such versions.

I’m anticipating that the Kojima version of Sorin in foil is going to show up in the 1/150 range.

That means it’ll take roughly 12 boxes of Collector Boosters to snag the one Kojima foil. To get that estimate, we know there’s 40 extended-art rares and 12 extended-art mythics, so that leaves 24 rares for the Fang/Night/Dracula frames and 8 mythics for the same. Some of those will be repeats, but the precise numbers will need to wait.

I would NOT compare the Kojima numbers to the Amano Lilianas, because the distribution is MUCH different. Kojima’s card is possible in Collector Boosters of any language, and Amano’s was only in Japanese-language War of the Spark boosters. What I would expect, though, is a price curve that looks a lot like the Phyrexian Vorinclex:

The demand will spike HARD early on, and then trickle off as assorted collectors get their hands on the card. The number of copies available will not make for the same demand curve as the Amano Liliana. 

One other thing to keep in mind: Sorin the Mirthless in other versions probably won’t be a super-pricey card. It’s taken a long time for Liliana, Dreadhorde General to climb, even as some of the other cards from that set have had their own financial jumps.

I hope that this helps you figure out what to do about this special artist crossover, and how to make some informed decisions when preordering or considering picking up this card for your collection.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Reading The Tea Leaves

Readers!

It’s the best time of the year for speculators! Mark Rosewater has released his giant, cryptic puzzle and it’s up to us to scramble to solve it and post our guesses that will likely end up being hilariously wrong. If there is anything that makes me think we should pick something up or get out of it, I’ll mention it. This should be fairly straightforward and involve a lot of guessing, but it’s going to be fun and stupid and we all need that. Let’s look at what Maro said, shall we?

I’m going to go point by point down his list and see if there is anything we should care about. Sound good? Too bad, here we go.

• The following counter types: bloodline, croak, invitation, judgment, omen, slime, and suspect

I don’t think there is much here. New counters are whatever, and without any clues, I’m eager to just move on.

• A new mechanic that removes something never removed before

A lot of people are speculating that this is emblems. That certainly makes sense – emblems are impossible to interact with and it’s annoying sometimes. I don’t think there is much doing here, but if the ability to remove emblems is unique, the card itself could matter. That said, it likely won’t – most emblems aren’t a big deal.

• A popular and powerful creature card from an Innistrad set gets reprinted

Of course this isn’t Snapcaster, but there are a few cards it could be. I am not sure which, but I have a few ideas.

With several printings already and a low price, this fits the bill description-wise but a lot of other factors make me think it’s not it.

I don’t think this card is safe for Standard.

I think the card here is most likely not legendary, not reprinted before and over $20, but I don’t there is money to be made selling and trying to rebuy every card that fits that description. Despite being the most-discussed point on twitter, I don’t think we can reliably make money here.

• A new artifact token, along the lines of Clue, Food and Treasure

Please stop. It’s too much.

• A card that makes red Dragon Illusion creature tokens with flying and haste

OK, that’s pretty cool but I don’t know which cards it will impact. It won’t be a landfall thing, and Dragons are pretty big which means it won’t be something that gives you a lot of tokens so this is most likely something that is cool but middling and we can probably ignore it. As usual, new commanders making new archetypes gives us the most movement, one individual card can’t do as much.

• A mechanic that first appeared as a faction mechanic returns

There are too many to guess which one and whether it would matter. In general, mechanics that have an associated “Fluctuator” type card might see that card move, but not much else.

• A new legendary creature card that combines two characters that previously each had their own legendary creature card

Olivia and Edgar the happy couple, I assume.

• A new card that lets you cast certain cards off the top of your library

The cheapest version of Scroll Rack is $15, and the cheapest foil is… gross, also $15.

Scroll Rack is going to be able to interact with this card no matter what color it’s in, unlike a card like Mirri’s Guile or Sylvan Library. If you want more topdeck ideas, look at a topdeck deck like Aminatou.

My personal feeling is that if the card is in Black, Citadel goes up immediately. If not, Citadel goes up until it’s reprinted. This is a very, very good card and it’s going to see play forever.

I think the buy-in is too high here.

• A new mechanic which is a mirror of an already existing mechanic

I got nothin

• A legendary character returns, but now as a Vampire

People are speculating that this is Thalia and if it is, cool?

Next, here are some rules text that will be showing up on cards:

• “Choose a number between 0 and 13.”

Could be anything

• “with mana value less than or equal to the number of Vampires you control”

All of the Vampires cards are in play, especially ones like Edgar who make tokens.

• “If it’s red, you may cast it this turn.”

This seems like an impulse draw thing. In addition to the artifacts we mentioned before, there is another way red decks can stack the deck.

Goblin Recruiter is another good one. I like Snoopy long-term, especially the EA copies.

Irrespective of whether it pairs nicely with this new card, Snoop is a buy.

• “Zombies you control have flying.”

Gross for anyone on the ground

• “At the beginning of your upkeep, any opponent may sacrifice a creature.”

“may” catches my eye here. This likely lets them trade for something better, which could make this a chaos or group hug card, but it’s impossible to say what would go up.

• “Kraken, Leviathan, Octopus, or Serpent”

Any card that has flirted with $10 is a buy at half that even if it doesn’t pop as a result of this new card, which it might not.

• “twice that many of those tokens are created instead.”

Is this Parallel Lives? It would be INSANE if they reprinted Parallel Lives, but it seems equally insane that they would do a functional reprint. Could this be on a creature? I don’t know, but what I do know is that Parallel Lives is long overdue a reprint, and anyone holding now could get dinged really bad.

I don’t particularly want to lose $50 a copy and this announcement has me spooked enough to consider this number.

I haven’t decided to dump my copies, but I’m sure thinking about it.

• “Whenever a Human you control dies,”

Shrug

• “equal to the number of permanents you control that are Spirits and/or enchantments.”

This could be VERY cool. I don’t think any spirits move that weren’t going to on account of there being a spirits precon, though.

• “Then if you control exactly thirteen permanents,”

Man, I don’t know. Sac outlets? I don’t think telling you to buy Ring of Gix is making anyone any money, though.

Finally, here are some creature type lines in the set:

• Creature – Human Ranger Werewolf

• Creature – Angel Soldier

• Creature – Zombie Scorpion

• Creature – Serpent Egg

• Creature – Eye Horror

• Legendary Creature – Human Peasant

• Legendary Creature – Spirit Warlock

• Legendary Creature – Slug Horror

• Legendary Creature – Kraken Horror

• Legendary Creature – Vampire Noble (two new ones)

I spent a lot of time looking at these without a single smart though occurring to me. I’m fine just letting the chips fall where they may here.

A lot of this was guessing, but thinking about these clues and making safe bets can give you a leg up over everyone who’s waiting for everything to be revealed. I think there is bound to be a big, splashy card in Crimson Vow and if it’s not Parallel Lives, that reprint is coming in the next 6 months at the latest. Thanks for reading my guesses – until next time!

Watchtower

New Tech, Old Decks

Continuing on from my article a couple of weeks ago, I’m back with more Modern content this week, and there have been some interesting decks popping up in the metagame that I want to take a look at. New and old decks in the metagame means new cards to spec on, and although this week’s picks might be a little more speculative than I usually go with, I like the look of them nonetheless.

Fractured Sanity (Foil)

Price today: $2.5
Possible price: $8

Mill has been picking back up in Modern over the past couple of weeks, having been gifted new tech both from Modern Horizons 2 and Adventures in the Forgotten Realms. The deck has gained resources in the form of Tasha’s Hideous Laughter and Fractured Sanity, both of which have been appearing as four-ofs in almost all current Mill lists. I talked a little bit about Tasha’s Hideous Laughter a few weeks ago and mentioned that I wanted to see it down towards $1-2 before grabbing a bunch of copies, and it’s gotten close to that but I’m not sure that it’ll quite hit that low any more – $3 might be your best entry at this point.

However, Fractured Sanity is looking like a much more enticing prospect right now, also a four-of in all the Mill decks and yet the foils have been somewhat languishing down at $2.50. I think that these are a prime target to head upwards pretty soon, and I can’t see it staying cheaper than Tasha’s Hideous Laughter for too much longer. With around 63 listings on TCGPlayer there are no major walls of copies; most listings are single or duo copies.

I want to mention the sketch versions quickly here – I think that these are another one that missed the mark in terms of the art, and that’s being reflected in prices – these are both cheaper and more readily available than the regular versions, and are probably worse targets than the regular copies for picking up at the moment.

Svyelun of Sea and Sky (Retro & Showcase Foil)

Price today: $7
Possible price: $20

Another deck making waves (pun fully intended) in Modern at the moment is Merfolk – an archetype that hasn’t seen much time in the sun for quite a while now, but might be back as a real player thanks to a couple of additions from Modern Horizons 2. Svyelun of Sea and Sky and Tide Shaper have both brought a lease of new life to the tribal deck, and could help push the old deck back to the forefront of the meta.

Tide Shaper acts as a replacement for Spreading Seas that hits for damage instead of drawing a card, and Svyelun giving Ward to all your Merfolk is pretty big game when cards like Solitude and Prismatic Ending have become so popular in Modern at the moment. On top of that Svyelun drawing cards and gaining indestructible really pushes it over the top, and as such has been showing up as a consistent three-of in the new Merfolk lists.

Prices for both the Retro frame and Showcase foils for Svyelun are both sat around $7 now, which I think could easily move up significantly if the Merfolk deck starts to gain some more traction in Modern. Aside from that, this is a card you can expect to see in almost all Merfolk EDH decks that get built, either as the commander or part of the 99, and being a Mythic form MH2 supply won’t last for too long once people start to pick copies up. Modern players will be grabbing them 3-4 at a time and certainly won’t mind paying $30-40 for a playset of premium copies, pushing the price up as they go.

Prismari Command

Price today: $6
Possible price: $15

I’ve spoken about Prismari Command before, when I called the FEA copies to go from $10 to $30 (and they’re currently sitting at $20 so well done if you bought some when I said to), but now that the more premium versions are getting expensive, I want to take a look at the regular copies. You can get them for around $6-7 in the US at the moment and they’re actually more expensive than that in Europe, although across the board foils and non-foils seem to be around the same price, so take your pick.

Prismari Command has been popping up here and there in Modern, seeing play across a few different kinds of decks – Crashing Footfalls, Indomitable Creativity and control variants. It’s also a relatively popular EDH card, in over 5000 decks listed on EDHREC, and in the top ten cards from Strixhaven. I think that this will continue to show up here and there in Modern, and that coupled with its EDH popularity should mean that it will keep climbing in price.

If you can get FEAs under $20 then I think they’re still a decent buy, certainly for personal use if not as a spec. I expect to see those crest $30 within a couple of months or so and could well continue up to $40.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Casual Fridays

Secret Lairs and Reprints

With the announcement of the Extra Life 2021 Secret Lair this week, and we now know it contains two Craterhoof Behemoth, two Metalwork Colossus, and two Mulldrifters. Secret Lairs have become a part of the MTG Finance landscape, but with Craterhoof being near its highest price ever, I want to look at what happened to the prices of cards after they get a reprint like this.

We’ve got a lot of examples to get through, so buckle up!

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.