Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Overlap

Readers,

I have talked a lot in the past about how cards that are spread over multiple new decks are more attractive picks to me than “obvious” cards in just one deck. Sure, Final Fortune spiking to $20 makes headlines when the MTG Stocks twitter account posts it for everyone to see, but the stuff that spikes slower attenuates more slowly, also. I have made it clear that I don’t feel bad when we miss “obvious” cards because obvious cards are sometimes wrong despite being obvious. I hate to keep harping on my “Vannifar or Teysa” comparison but it’s one of the most important lessons I’ve learned in evaluating cards when they’re spoiled and you can read all about those lessons here and in a few other articles you could probably find by googling my name. The takeaway is that no one expected Teysa to be the most popular commander in a set with Vannifar spiking cards from Intruder Alarm to Thornbite Staff, but here we are, almost 2 years later and Vannifar was a dud and Teysa is the 12th-most-built deck in the last 2 years. Could some Vannifar specs have had a better chance of paying off if they had multiple decks they belonged to? Let’s test our hypothesis, shall we?

I use a multiple list comparison tool to quickly input the average decks from EDHREC and see which cards overlap. It’s quick and dirty but it helps us sift through a lot of noise very fast and uncover some cards that aren’t as sexy but which will not fall off a cliff when no one actually builds the deck. Obeka is top dog right now, but is it another Vannifar? What if we had cards both Vannifar and Teysa played – you don’t have to pick a winner at that point, you can just buy cards both decks need. Wouldn’t that be something?

Does it matter if Obeka or Araumi is the winner here? I don’t think so – I contend there are cards common between the lists and that not all of them are UB staples. Let’s prove it with a very quick and easy test that you can do yourself whenever you feel like it.

I don’t feel like finding the article where I showed you how I do this so I’ll show you again.

On a commander’s page, there is a place to select the average deck for that commander. It’s not all-inclusive, it’s an average, but the odds aren’t great you’ll miss something because it’s simultaneously played enough to go up in price but little enough not to make the average list. This isn’t perfect but we don’t need perfect, we just want some ideas.

Drop the list in the comparison tool.

Do the same for the other commander you want to compare it to. Click the big plus sign if you want to add a 3rd or 4th commander to compare.

We have 25 overlapping cards. Obviously a lot will be land, mana rocks and other deck staples, but we only need 1 or 2 hits.

1 Araumi of the Dead Tide 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Arcane Signet 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Buried Alive 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Command Tower 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Counterspell 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Cyclonic Rift 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Dimir Signet 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Drowned Catacomb 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Fact or Fiction 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Feed the Swarm 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Frantic Search 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Hullbreacher 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Lightning Greaves 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Morphic Pool 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Rakshasa Debaser 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Rhystic Study 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Sol Ring 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Solemn Simulacrum 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Sundial of the Infinite 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Swan Song 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Talisman of Dominance 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Toxic Deluge 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Underground River 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Watery Grave 2 Araumi, Obeka
1 Windfall 2 Araumi, Obeka

BINGO. Do You see it?

We discussed sunnyboi already when we talked about how it was a little redundancy insurance in Obeka but it turns out Araumi likes the idea of keeping those encore tokens around for repeat performances. Sundial has two printings and the price was deflated more than I think was necessary due to a supply of Mystery Boosters that was smaller than people realize. Sundial is a $5-$7 card waiting to happen on the basis of being used in both of the two most popular Commander Legends decks and if you didn’t buy them when I wrote my Obeka article, it’s not too late. Imagine if Vannifar and Teysa both played the same card – except you don’t have to imagine it, it’s real and the card is quite good and quite underpriced. As soon as this sells out on Card Kingdom the next price won’t be below $5, I’m sure of it.

Let’s do some more decks, shall we?

Yarlok and Jared are #3 and #4 respectively, which doesn’t make them Vannifar and Teysa, but it does make them Nikya and whatever is 4th place in that set, I’m not looking it up. Lavinia?

1 Arcane Signet 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Beast Within 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Birds of Paradise 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Blasphemous Act 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Cinder Glade 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Command Tower 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Cultivate 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Eternal Witness 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Exotic Orchard 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Farseek 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Heroic Intervention 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Kodama’s Reach 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Lightning Greaves 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Rampant Growth 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Rootbound Crag 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Sol Ring 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Spire Garden 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Stomping Ground 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Swiftfoot Boots 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Three Visits 2 Yarlok, Jared
1 Wooded Foothills 2 Yarlok, Jared

This IS at its floor, how interesting. Like I said, we’re not going to get a ton of hits – there will be 20 cards that overlap if the decks share at least 2 colors and a lot of those will be lands and mana rocks. However, you’ll also likely get a hit or two.

It’s so quick and easy to do this, you can pick any two commanders that share a couple of colors or at least have tangentially-related strategies. Remember, commanders in this set will overlap an co operate a bit more than in an average set because they were designed to be played in Limited. Blim can go in a Ghen deck. This set has partner commanders that can be used in any combination. This is the set to plug in two wacky decks, hit compare…

1 Arcane Signet 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Blasphemous Act 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Blood Crypt 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Captive Audience 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Command Tower 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Court of Ambition 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Court of Ire 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Curse of Opulence 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Demonic Lore 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Demonic Pact 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Dragonskull Summit 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Luxury Suite 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Rakdos Signet 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Sol Ring 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Talisman of Indulgence 2 Ghen, Blim
1 Treacherous Blessing 2 Ghen, Blim

…and see what happens. Predictably, we got some hits.

Good ones.

This flirted with $10 when it was in Standard and while it’s going to take some work to get there again, 2 decks that make use of pernicious Enchantments like this – Ghen to draw the cards then bin the Pact before it bites and Blim to give it away while cackling like an idiot, help out a ton.

Do we love bulk foils? Probably not. I think Collector Boosters have completely murdered set foils and that’s another article for another day. I don’t like any recent set foils, but it only took a few seconds to pull up the graph so why not just do it?

This is only going to get you non-partner commanders. Partner commanders are a much trickier situation to parse, but with some work you can figure it out.

1 Amphin Mutineer 2 Zara, dargo
1 Arcane Signet 2 Zara, dargo
1 Azure Fleet Admiral 2 Zara, dargo
1 Blasphemous Act 2 Zara, dargo
1 Brainstorm 2 Zara, dargo
1 Breeches 2 Zara, dargo
1 Captain Lannery Storm 2 Zara, dargo
1 Captain Vargus Wrath 2 Zara, dargo
1 Captivating Crew 2 Zara, dargo
1 Cascade Bluffs 2 Zara, dargo
1 Chaos Warp 2 Zara, dargo
1 Coastal Piracy 2 Zara, dargo
1 Coercive Recruiter 2 Zara, dargo
1 Command Tower 2 Zara, dargo
1 Corsair Captain 2 Zara, dargo
1 Counterspell 2 Zara, dargo
1 Cyclonic Rift 2 Zara, dargo
1 Dockside Extortionist 2 Zara, dargo
1 Evolving Wilds 2 Zara, dargo
1 Hullbreacher 2 Zara, dargo
1 Impulsive Pilferer 2 Zara, dargo
1 Izzet Signet 2 Zara, dargo
1 Merchant Raiders 2 Zara, dargo
1 Myriad Landscape 2 Zara, dargo
1 Pongify 2 Zara, dargo
1 Port Razer 2 Zara, dargo
1 Protean Raider 2 Zara, dargo
1 Reconnaissance Mission 2 Zara, dargo
1 Shivan Reef 2 Zara, dargo
1 Sol Ring 2 Zara, dargo
1 Spell Swindle 2 Zara, dargo
1 Spirebluff Canal 2 Zara, dargo
1 Steam Vents 2 Zara, dargo
1 Storm the Vault 2 Zara, dargo
1 Sulfur Falls 2 Zara, dargo
1 Swiftfoot Boots 2 Zara, dargo
1 Talisman of Creativity 2 Zara, dargo
1 Temple of Epiphany 2 Zara, dargo
1 Training Center 2 Zara, dargo
Brazen Plunderer 2 Zara, dargo
Keen-Eyed Navigator 2 Zara, dargo

Sometimes you get hits, sometimes you get a lot of noise an no signal. The important thing to remember is that you will spend a half hour at this and find 10 potential specs and it’s some of the best time you can spend scouring a set. Don’t try and figure out the whole format, let a few simple techniques maximize the time you spend.

That does it for me this week, everyone. Thanks for reading and thanks for the good discussions we’ve been having in the Pro Trader Discord channel. Until next time!

Watchtower

The Watchtower 11/23/20 – How Uncommon is an EA Common if an Uncommon Could Be Common?

We’re only a few days past the official release of Commander Legends, and already we’re seeing some crazy numbers from these Collector Boosters. Turns out that the Extended Art cards (which can only be found in the Collector Boosters remember) are a lot less common than you might think, especially when it comes to the Common and Uncommon slots. I can already tell I’m going to be sick of typing ‘common’ and ‘uncommon’ in a few minutes.

It looks like there isn’t a difference in terms of print run between EA commons and uncommons in these Collector Boosters, so the rarity difference doesn’t actually mean anything there. Thanks to some maths run by James at MTGPrice on the collector boosters, we have some pretty solid estimates of how many copies of each card exist in the world…and it’s less than you might think.

Judging by the data we have available to us, it looks like there are less than 10,000 of each FEA common and uncommon from the entire print run of Commander Legends collector boosters, and that estimate is probably on the high side by quite a bit. Don’t be fooled by the common and uncommon rarity symbols they have stamped on them; these are premium pieces of cardboard and should be treated as such. We’ve been given quite a few EDH ultra-staples here in FEA for the first time, and some of those cards have never really had a fancy version printed before, making them a must-have for many EDH players.

I’m focusing on a few of those cards in my picks today, but you can apply this logic to plenty of the other FEA commons and uncommons and go have a look at targets for yourself. There are definitely too many good options to fit into one article!

Command Tower (FEA)

Price today: €12 ($14)
Possible price: $30+

It’s been a little while since I properly dedicated a slot to an arbitrage pick, so here you go! EDH players in the US have already been taking a shot at these, because other than the Commander’s Arsenal version and Judge Promo (which are both $100+), Commander Legends is the only other place you can find a foil version. And what’s better than a foil? An extended art foil, of course. We know by now that EDH is much more popular in the US than in Europe (and if you don’t, then go and read my article on arbitrage here), and that’s reflected in the pricing here. €12 on MKM compared to $24 on TCGPlayer is some serious arbitrage immediately, let alone if you wait a few months to sell.

Let’s talk some more numbers. Command Tower is listed in 277,283 decks recorded on EDHREC. 64% of all decks (and I’m surprised it’s that low), because duh – it’s a free untapped land that taps for any colour for you. The only real reason not to run it is because it doesn’t have a land type and so in mono-colour (and sometimes 2-colour decks) it can be worse than a basic land for you. But anyway, 277k decks that could want this card, and less than 10k FEA copies in the wild? Looks like some easy maths to me.

We are getting another foil Command Tower printing in Commander Collection: Green next month, but the premium versions of those sets (the ones that have the foils) are only being distributed to WPN stores and so allocation numbers are low – like, really low. Judging by the direction Wizards are going in we’ll most likely see another premium printing of Command Tower at some point, but I doubt we’ll see a FEA for a fair while. And remember, numbers on these are very limited compared to the number of players that are going to want them, so prices are going to be headed upwards pretty quickly.

I’m already racking up the word count on this article, so I’ll try and be a little more brief on my next two picks. Most of what I’ve said above in general and about Command Tower applies to both of these next picks, so I’ll explain a little more about them but not more than you should need to be convinced.

Terramorphic Expanse (FEA)

Price today: $2
Possible price: $10

Myriad Landscape (FEA)

Price today: $3
Possible price: $10

Terramorphic Expanse is an interesting one here, in that there have been zillions of printings and plenty of foils alongside that, but other than very slight border differences they all kinda look the same. The only one with a different art is the version printed in Jumpstart, and there weren’t any foils in that set so it’s not quite hitting that true premium spot. Getting this FEA version in Commander Legends is going to really scratch that itch for a lot of players, aaaaaand let’s check EDHREC…yep, 116k decks. Less than 10k copies. You know the drill!

Myriad Landscape is on a very similar footing, but with only one previous foil in Masters 25, this FEA might be even more popular than Terramorphic Expanse. It’s “only” in 81k decks, which is obviously still a huge number but not quite the territory that the other two hold – but it is a very good option in multicolour decks to go and find the lands you need to cast your spells. Fewer people are probably running it than should, but demand is still more than high enough to run down the supply.
Both of these can be picked up at around $2-3 both on TCGPlayer and MKM at the moment, which is just way too cheap. Yes, they’re technically commons and uncommons, but It’s better to think of them more like regular rares or mythics than what they’re labelled as. Demand for these is going to be super high and supply is much lower than people might think. It’s basic stonks.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK and a new writer for MTGPrice in 2020, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Casual Fridays

The Strength of First-Run Foils

When a card gets reprinted, it will lose value. That’s one of the bedrock principles of Magic finance, and probably isn’t news to you.

However, there are some exceptions to this rule, and some of them may be surprising to you.

Let’s take a look at some examples of cards which went UP after being reprinted, flying in the face of conventional wisdom.

The first set of foils that came to my mind in terms of reprints are pretty iconic: the OG Ravnica-block shocklands. Let’s look at Hallowed Fountain’s graph, though you can use just about any of them. Keep in mind that Ravnica was in 2009, Return to Ravnica was 2012, and Guilds of Ravnica was 2019. The original shocklands are quite well aged.

Yowza, that’s an expensive shockland, especially when you look at the price of its reprint:

Note that the Guilds reprint in 2019 didn’t faze the RTR price much, but caused the Dissension price to jump enormously. The other shocklands have had hops from time to time, but the pattern of growth is there despite the reprints. Reprints which included BFZ Expeditions in 2015, mind you.

Now you might be saying, “Yeah, but those are for the shocklands, and those are cards with mega-cross-format appeal!” You’d be right, but there’s no appreciable reason for the 2005 card to be four or five times as expensive as the 2012 one. Especially because there’s not a lot of space between the 2012 foil price and the 2019 foil price.

That’s the shocklands, though. Let’s try something else with an older foil and a lot of reprints.

Karn Liberated has been popular since his first printing in New Phyrexia (2011) and while he’s not a big deal in Commander, Tron has been the real deal with the ability to slam him down turn three and exile something. The price on the OG foil, now nearly ten years old, tells quite a tale:

Something happened in late 2018: Ultimate Master Box Toppers. But even that price has been impacted in 2020 by Double Masters, which gave us another borderless treatment.

The difference here is probably one of use: Karn is big in Modern, but tiny in Commander. Fountain, though, is in 50k+ decks online, literally half the decks that could have the shockland do.

All right, so let’s try a commander card with an original foil, and no special frame reprint. Seedborn Muse meets these criteria, though there hasn’t been a foil reprint since Battlebond in 2017:

I have to admit I’m not a huge fan of using a card with the old border foil in this thought process, but $200 as TCG low vs under $50 for 9th, 10th, and BBD foils is right in line with expectations.

How about a commander staple with an old border AND a special frame reprint? Let’s talk about the Sad Robot, Solemn Simulacrum:

The price on the foil has stayed under $50 for a long time, being the Invitational card back in 2003. There was a reprint in Magic 2012, which included a foil version, but the real event was in 2016, when the Invention version showed up and started soaking up the dollars of people who would have otherwise paid for the OG foil. We got a new FEA version in Core 2021,which seems to have impacted the price on this card, given how the price has fallen this year.

So to summarize: original pack foils are pretty safe from reprints until a special version shows up. ‘Special Version’ can mean a lot of things, such as in Sakura-Tribe Elder’s case, where there’s an FNM and the awesomely shiny JSS treatment. Mostly, though, it’s going to mean a foil extended art.

This rule does not apply if the special frame becomes more expensive than the original: collectors will then start chasing the most pricey version of the card, and the prophecy will fulfill itself. For instance, I can’t see the new Zendikar Rising Expedition version of Scalding Tarn ever being more expensive than the Battle for Zendikar Expedition version. Godless Shrine, though, the BfZ Expedition became more than the Dissension card and never looked back.

If you own an original foil of a card and a special version shows up, don’t panic. Definitely don’t panic sell, especially if it’s the original foil of a staple in Cube or Commander. There are cards that are resistant to this pressure, and playability is a big part of that calculation.

Duel Decks don’t count, as I see with Avenger of Zendikar and a couple of other cards. Those have been rotten egg of reprints for quite a while, though it’s good that some foil versions remain cheap.

What does this mean going forward?

Well, for starters, I’m going to flinch at expensive pack foils when reprints are coming. One example of this would be Rings of Brighthearth, which is getting a reprint in Commander Legends and that includes a foil extended art treatment. The presence of that FEA means I’m expecting the OG foil to take a hit. Will it recover? Maybe. Whichever one is more expensive in six weeks is the one I’d want to have going forward. Price memory is going to play a big part in something like that, too.

It also means that I much prefer to invest in special frame versions going forward. Not only are those less likely to be reprinted (note that’s not the same as impossible) but they will also be resilient to reprint drag.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Thrashing the Scorch

I publicly judge Magic cards on their ability to drive prices. If they can start cheap and get more expensive later, and if my expertise allows me to see that before other people, cool, I guess. But if they drive a bunch of other prices, even better. Publicly, that’s what I’m all about. Silently and internally, I judge Magic cards by how stupid their names are. Cards like Vorel of the Hull Clade sound like someone put a bunch of words through google translate. Is a hull a thing? Yeah, and so is a clade. Do those words in that order sound like Ra’s al Ghul got his Babel machine working and pointed it right at WotC headquarters? Also yes.

Here’s another name that sounds like complete word salad.

Yurlok of Scorch Thrash

This is not fun to say and I don’t know why they name Magic cards like this. Is the card fun in all the ways that count? Yes, and now it’s time to count those ways.

It is not important that you be able to see exactly what is going on in this picture. In fact, let’s focus a bit more.

Here are the top 3 decks this week. Yes, there are more Araumi decks than Yurlok. I think the financial opportunities are a lot like the tide – dead. I think there is more unexplored territory in the Yurlok deck and I’m going to focus on it. You’re free to scour Araumi yourself but I think there is more set to pop that hasn’t yet in Yurlok and it’s my article so get off my back already and let me do my job, rhetorical device I’ve employed to explain why I’m skipping the #2 deck.

Torbran and Obosh spent the last year doing for this card already but in case you didn’t find out that these were cash money, they’re probably not done going up. I would have preferred that we had a blank slate coming in and we could pluck these out of bulk boxes but with so much of 2020 having been spent indoors, it’s possible any LGS with un-inventoried boxes has these for like a quarter. I think this can hit $7 but I wouldn’t pay more than $4. Find these in your bulk, I know you have a bunch, we all do.

We used to have more time on bulk rares like this. This has largely been discovered by the finance community and the fact that this was $4 yesterday and is $8 today shows that we can’t wait like we used to be able to. I think these are findable and I also think they won’t maintain $10 or above because it’s only good in this deck, but smoke ’em if you got ’em.

I included Overabundance to sort of contrast with this next card a bit. Someone who doesn’t play EDH but understands the finance game will see a card like Overabundance, realize it was practically made to go into Yurlok decks and buy a bunch. That person doesn’t need EDHREC data to do that. But EDHREC doesn’t make the news, it reports the news, and nearly as many people are putting Tectonic Instability in their decks as are putting Overabundance.

However, Overabundance is a card that’s obvious to people who don’t play EDH and Tec Instability is a card that people who are building the deck will eventually figure out when they sit down and start to try and come up with 100 cards to play. I’m not saying any one card is better than another, but one of them is a cheaper buy-in right now and still has copies lying around despite the cards having nearly identical demand profiles.

I guess what I am saying is don’t get discouraged by missing the boat on cards like Overabundance when less obvious cards that are basically an identical spec are still left on the table. This is why I wait for EDHREC data rather than trying to guess what people are going to play the second a card is spoiled. Why fight everyone for cards that are going to peak then drop when you can fight no one for a slow gainer and sell at its peak?

Yurlok is here to finish what Kydele started and I’m about it. Sword and Umbral Mantle as both in play here because they generate infinite mana in other people’s mana pools if you have something like Heartstone and that’s hilarious. Even if you pay 1 mana to deal 3 damage over and over, it’s still a really solid pairing. Any 2-card combo where one of the cards is your commander is strong.

Mantle is already halfway through shaking off that Mystery Booster printing – what a beast of a card. This is solid with Yurlok and will be in like 80% of the Yurlok decks built, which could be a lot.

Good thing Yurlok deals the damage and it doesn’t count as mana burn. Just when you thought you were safe to let your opponent resolve Eladamri’s Vineyard with feet.

Speaking of which…

Maybe a bit too late for this one, but it’s good to know it’s a thing. Luckily CK’s buylist is climbing along with retail in case you want to get out quickly and easily and leave CK to try and offload the copies you got back in 1997.

In case you were thinking, “This is playable now AND on the Reserved List? How much could it possibly fall if the deck doesn’t catch on? It’s not like they’re printing more copies of this” I present to you the following

That plummet accounts for about $4.35 of its peak of $5, or about 87% of the card’s “Well it’s on the Reserve [sic] List” perceived value. Just saying. Not saying it hits $0.65 again, I’m saying I’m staying away. If I thought it was a good idea to invest in RL garbage that might go up because of a deck, I’d advocate better cards than this. Could this be the deck that does it? Maybe, but if so, it’s already back up to $5 so no sense lamenting that you don’t get the chance to go hunt for greater fools, there’s money to be made elsewhere.

That does it for me this week. There are probably more cards you can pick up and I would keep going if they let me, but it’s time to call it an article. Thanks for reading me for all these years. Join me next week where we’ll find even more stuff the Overabundance-buyers missed. Until next time!

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY