Brainstorm Brewery #313 Survivor

Corbin’s (@CHosler88) , DJ (@Rose0fThorns) and Jason (@jasonEalt) explore possible career paths for Corbin, the Pro Tour and the usefulness of number crunching like some kind of nerd.

Make sure to check us out on Youtube for hidden easter eggs and facial reactions  https://www.youtube.com/user/BrainstormBrewery

 

Return info for TeeSpring: You can return the items to the following address:

 

Teespring

1201 Aviation Blvd

Dock Door 9

Hebron, KY 41048

 

Kindly leave a note with your order number/email address, or include the label from your original shipment.

Unlocked Pro Trader: 15 Specs Based On No Evidence

Readers,

I like being involved in EDH finance and usually it’s a fast-paced world that’s constantly evolving but we have just been doing a lot of nothing on the basis of Guilds of Ravnica. There’s nothing doing. The most-built commander is still Niv-Mizzet which would be cool if the deck didn’t already exist in its entirety. Niv-Mizzet isn’t new, Etrata isn’t good and Izoni isn’t exciting. The guild decks nerfed a lot of specs and I wrote three articles’ worth of content about those stupid box-toppers last week. This week I want to think about the next Ravnica set, its 5 guilds and a few cards that are likely to get some play based on which guild mechanics I expect will see a bump. I’m sure most of the commanders are going to suck and a lot of the guild kits will have obvious synergistic cards, but I think if we go foil and obscure, or target cards outside of Ravnica sets which won’t be in those decks, we can be safe. Here’s what I came up with on the basis of writing a very similar article from a builder’s standpoint that will go live on Coolstuff Inc. later this week.

Azorius

I don’t think Forecast is all that likely to be re-used and I think they’ll either do a new mechanic that’s synergistic with Detain or they’ll just re-use Detain, which I’m fine with. Detain is rough against a whole board, but I think bouncing Lavinia has worked in the past and likely will again. I think those flash shenanigans are the best thing we can be doing in those colors and if we’re not building around a new commander, I bet we get some new spells that make that sort of thing profitable, I’m betting there’s a Ghostway in the Guild Kit and I’m betting there is money to be made.

This nicely shrugged off the reprint, one it’s not likely to get again soon. There area lot of these, but 17,105 is a big number, too. There is no real substitute for this card, only cards that do this absurd thing almost as well. This does dumb stuff with creatures like Lavinia and with most Detain abilities being ETB, I think this is a safe bet whether we get anything Detain-esque or not. This was never not a good bet to go up.

This didn’t dip as much at rotation as many would have liked and it’s already starting to go nuts. This was gettable for much cheaper and I feel like I warned us but I didn’t buy as many as I should have, either, so we’re all just going to have to buy a little closer to the $10 I bet this hits soon and chalk it up to being distracted by stuff that doesn’t matter like Ultimate Masters and Arena and every other format.

In the event that I’m right about everything and we not only get good detain or other ETB stuff and Ghostway in the Guild Kit, don’t forget about this card.

Gruul

Gruul’s keyword abilities all tended to relate to making sure you deal them damage and I don’t necessarily expect a good commander to result if we end up getting one of those keywords back or getting one related to them. I’d rather pitch lands at them for more damage than pitch creatures to their Bloodrush ability. I think Gruul is a lands-matter tribe primarily and even if we don’t get a new commander for that, I bet we get cards that enable those strategies and those alone may be an impetus to go back and build something like Angry Omnath or Mina And Denn.

I think this is getting a bit underplayed right now and I think once people realize how good this is, we’ll see it crest a few bucks at least. It’s in the “worst” deck and while most of the copies busted aren’t going in a deck, there aren’t many copies being busted since players aren’t excited and the deck isn’t worth anything. This has a lot of room to grow and I think it’s a great card that will pair well with future Gruul offerings.

I’ve been on this for a while and I don’t feel any less positive about it now than I did then. This is sick in EDH, has cross-format appeal, is at its price floor and likely gets a second look if the new Gruul commanders are any good, and that could be doubly-so if Simic happens to interact with it somehow.

You aren’t likely to see this reprinted and while you’re not going to have any Deserts when this resolves, you’re also not going to see a card that gets two lands of any type and puts them into play anytime soon. This is pretty nuts and its demand will soon catch up with its supply. It may take a minute like it did with Realms Uncharted, but it will happen.

Orzhov

I doubt Haunt is coming back and since Extort was so miserable in Limited, I don’t think we’re getting that precisely, either. I think if we do get a new keyword ability, it’s bound to be related to lifegain or life drain and since Ozhov was great at that already, cards that are devoted to that will have some upside.

At around 12k decks, this card doesn’t mess around. It’s got utility in spellslinger decks as well as lifegain decks and blasting people for 50 appeals to casual players as well as competitive ones. This card has something for everyone and I don’t know how reprintable it is. I was all over these when my LGS blew out bulk rares as buy one get one free dropping the price to 50 cents and I feel pretty good now that they have quintupled. There is a lot of room to go up, still.

Foil Kambal is harder to reprint, gets played in formats like Legacy and Modern where foils have upside as well as the lunatics who foil their EDH decks. All in all, this seems like a no-brainer.

Between Orzhov and Azorious, someone is going to want a 3 mana Jokulhaups.

Rakdos

Rakdos is terrible and I think the Rakdos stuff that has upside will have nothing to do with the Keyword ability, which may be Hellbent but will likely be new and not great in Commander. I had a lot of success in Limited with Rakdos but times around since you curved out and had a lot of finishers that were nasty with Hellbent but I don’t know if EDH cares this time around.

This is half predicated on Grenzo and half just another excuse to talk about a card that should both be played and cost more.

I think a lot of people thought this high price was predicated on scarcity, but the amount of decks running it bely that narrative. Besides, it’s not like Battlebond isn’t pretty scarce in its own right. Battlebond continues to be a slam dunk.

If you buy one card from this block, buy Torment of Hailfire. If you buy two, but Tormet of Hailfire and Neheb. Trust me.

Simic

Simic is likely to have a dumb, +1/+1 counter theme and some support for it but it will mostly just be a goodstuff commander, if there even is a good commander in the set. Simic is my favorite color combination but it’s a bit boring and most of what it will likely do in this set is accidentally give Atraxa decks a good card.

This may not be as hard to reprint as I’m making it out to be, but I’m not banking on this ever getting cheaper. In a Simic deck, this is really solid but good luck wresting a copy away from an Atraxa player.

In my experience, this puts the person who resolves it roughly as far ahead as casting Sylvan Primordial did, but there you have it. This is not bannably good per se but I feel like it can be just as much a blowout. If those cryptocurrency geniuses went as hard after obvious specs like this as they do garbage Reserved List cards, this would be $15 already with no reprint in sight. As it stands, I can’t believe this isn’t $10.

This shrugged off the reprint, it looks like, and since it’s getting played in a popular Modern deck which eats four copies at a time, being a recent rare isn’t going to hold this back. I think whichever Simic commanders are printed in the next set will interact with this a ton and it’s not eligible for the Guild Kit which means this is about to ride a wave of upside to value town. Enjoy!

That does it for me this week. These 15 specs are very very speculative given how little we know about the next set, but a lot of these are due a price increase regardless of what the new commanders do. I’ll have more when I know more. Until then, thanks for reading. Until next time!

The Watchtower 11/13/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


On the whole, Pro Tour Guilds of Ravnica was a mixed bag. LSV took second, and everyone got to enjoy rooting for the good guy the whole time. Of course, the event was full of nothing but white weenie decks, so unless you’re Craig Wescoe, the deck diversity didn’t really do a lot for you.

With no real breakout decks or cards, there’s nowhere else for us to turn in Standard. The best time to ditch any Standard inventory you may have had was somewhere over the last 30 days, so make sure you finish clearing out your stash now. That way you’ll have plenty of spare resources when holiday sales and a general buying drought set in.

Prized Amalgam (Foil)

Price Today: $5
Possible Price: $13

Dredge has been enjoying fair popularity in Modern for awhile now, with Prized Amalgam and Hollow One having done a lot of work to revitalize the archetype. Amalgam is especially well-suited to Dredge, as his requirement of playing a creature from the graveyard is so universally applicable to the strategy, that it’s tough to imagine a build that doesn’t satisfy that condition.

There’s no question about how popular the strategy has been either. Bloodghast is the 3rd most popular creature in Modern, Stinkweed Imp is 11th, and Amalgam is 12th. Despite plenty of sideboard hate out there, dredge is still strong enough to put up consistent numbers. Inventory numbers reflect that too. Amalgam only has one printing from Shadows Over Innistrad, which isn’t old, but it’s been two and a half years, so it’s not fresh and recent.

Checking out foils you’ll see a couple in the $5 and $6 range, and the ladder ramps up quickly from there. That’s a strong indicator for rapid price growth once those bottom copies go. With dredge’s sustained popularity, I don’t expect to be able to pay $5 for foil Amalgams for much longer.

Ancestral Vision (Foil)

Price Today: $20
Possible Price: $40

We all thought that Jace would herald a new age for control in Modern. So far, that doesn’t seem to have happened (yet). What has pushed control is Teferi, Hero of Dominaria. It wasn’t more than two weeks ago that Ben Stark (I think) was writing about Jace is irrelevant and Teferi is the best planeswalker in control. That’s a strong claim.

You’ve heard us talk about Teferi on the @mtgfastfinance podcast often enough that I won’t get too far into it now. Instead I’m interested in a card that’s been showing up regularly in all these control strategies. Another unbanned blue card, Ancestral Vision has found its way into the format via the opening that Teferi has made. If you’re planning on winning with a five mana planeswalker, you’ve got some time. Which is exactly where Ancestral Vision is good.

Foil copies will run you about $20 right now. There aren’t many before you hit $25, and then only a few more to $30. Given that the original foils are $125, we know the ceiling is a long ways off still. So long as control continues to hold its share of the metagame, and Vision is part of that, we’re going to see these slip away over time.

Myr Retriever (Foil)

Price Today: $8
Possible Price: $15

Take your pick, honestly. You’ll find a couple Myr Retrievers in KCI, a combo deck whose closest relative is Eggs, and you’ll find buckets more in EDH, where it’s in 8,000 decks and a signature feature of Breya decks, one of the most popular commanders of all time.

There are two foil Retrievers; Mirrodin and Modern Masters. If you’ve ever held a Mirrodin foil you’ll know those are for collectors only. They’re hideous. You can’t even tell they’re foil. If you want a good looking foil Retriever, you’ve got to go to MMA. And there are are about 10 of them below $10. And frankly, not many more above $10 either.

With Myr Retriever’s popularity in Commander, where it’s been a go-to in artifact strategies since the format’s inception, and its continued presence in Modern as a utility card in KCI, supplies are going to continue dwindle, with at least a price double-up on the horizon.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


 

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The Reserved (Shopping) List

Did you know that Wizards is capable of very bright ideas, like goosing the value of Ultimate Masters (The names are getting out of hand. I’m fully expecting UltraMegaZord Masters soon) in order to justify $14 packs, and also cheapskating PT players by making them buy their own swag at PT Atlanta this weekend?

Even typing that sentence out makes me shake my head. Sure, a certain % of players have a bunch of shirts and water bottles, and someone wants to pinch that penny. The optics are godawful though, and they are severely underestimating the appeal of things you’ve earned as souvenirs. I’ve got an MTGPrice shirt from four years ago. I regret to say that my official MTGPrice playmat was stolen about 18 months ago. These are things that have high sentimental value, even if the shirt is faded and I’ve got a dozen playmats.

Wizards has been consistent in one area, at least: The Reserved List. I fully admit that on Twitter, I’ve got ‘reserved list’ and ‘RL’ muted, just because the conversations are so cyclical and predictable.

Standard and Modern and EDH can drive value, but the RL has been a source of financial interest for some time, and even if some of the buyouts have been artificial, they’ve still allowed prices to climb, and a lot of those gains have stuck.

Today I want to look at some RL cards that have potential, either from a unique effect, EDH play, or other factors that make it a good target.

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expensive cards

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Cliff has been writing for MTGPrice for five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP (next up: Oakland in January!) and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

 

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