Pro Tour Dominaria: Financial Preview

June 1, 2018 James Chillcott

Pro Tour Dominaria, the second Pro Tour of 2018 got rolling this morning in Richmond, VA, USA.

As per usual the world’s best players have been holed up in east coast hotels and rented homes for the last week or two, all seeking to answer the only query that matters: is there a fresh deck or reconfiguration of existing archetypes out there that will allow them to catch the field off balance while offering consistent play against the known quantities in the field?

With $250,000 USD on the line, and $50,000 for the winner, players looking to Top 8 will have to tap into both luck and skill to secure the victory.

Six weeks after the release of the ultra-popular Dominaria set, we find ourselves well entrenched in one of the better Standard formats in recent memory. With a relative dearth of major Standard tournaments over the last few weeks due to significant Modern and Team Trios representation, our hard data on the best decks of paper Standard is more scarce than usual. Perhaps the most relevant recent result can be drawn from the Standard decks of the Team Trios results from GP Toronto, two weeks ago, where the following decks made Top 4:

Entering into this weekend, the online meta would suggest that the top decks sync up with what we saw at the recent IRL team tourneys:

RB Aggro (12%)
UW Control (7%)
GB Constrictor (5%)
Red Aggro (5%)
UB Mid-Range (4%)
WB Vehicles (4%)
Green Aggro (4%)
UB Control (4%)

By any standard that is a fairly diverse and healthy looking field.

It is worth noting that the Pro Tour currently requires that players succeed in a mixed schedule of booster draft (DOM/DOM/DOM) and constructed play with 3 rounds of draft this morning at 9am , followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 1pm EST/11am PST, Friday.

For we finance types, this is going to be a tricky tournament to make or save money on, given the various factors in play. Firstly, Dominaria’s popularity has resulted in demand exceeding supply on the first wave or product allocations. As a result, heading into this weekend, we still have five mythic rares from the set commanding prices over $10, including Karn, Scion of Urza, Teferi, Hero of Dominaria, Lyra Dawnbringer, History of Benalia and Mox Amber. Of the rares, the most relevant thus far is Goblin Chainwhirler, a consistent four-of in the red decks that is holding $5 at present. On the other hand, additional supply is now making it’s way into the supply chain, and we’re also heading into the summer season that typically leads to a general collapse in card prices, especially for Standard staples, and even more so if they are rotating in the fall. As a result, our focus is likely to be most productive when used to identify the cards that may be set up to spike after the major fall rotation and that we may be able to get on discount during a summer vendor sale or Ebay coupon day.

Cards to Watch

Karn, Scion of Urza

Current Price: $50
Odds to Top 8: 1 in 3
Monday Price: $50

Initially widely underestimated, the new Karn with pants immediately started putting up results in multiple formats as soon as he was released on the unsuspecting Magic population. In Modern, Frank Karsten has been advocating Karn, Scion of Urza as a 2-of in Affinity lists, and we’ve also seen the big metal planeswalker show up in Legacy Mono-Red Prison, Eldrazi and Affinity/Prison hybrid lists where the presence of City of Traitors and Ancient Tomb make Turn 2 Karn a real possibility. In Standard, Karn is in the top 10 most played cards in the format, most prominently appearing in WB Vehicles decks as a 3-of. UB Mid-Range & RB Aggro decks also have been spotted running Karn, though not as consistently. Generally speaking I am most interested in Russian or Korean foils as close to $250 as possible, since they are highly unlikely to see a reprint in the next five years, and should enjoy some strong multi-format support rolling forward that pushes rare original printings sky high. If you have been looking to acquire your personal play set, your position is uncertain. In theory, summer doldrums and additional Dominaria supply should lead to downward price pressure, potentially opening up access to sub $40 copies. On the other hand, a dominant showing this weekend might encourage even more players to pile onto the card speculatively, which would open up a chance for the card to top $60 in the short term. Net, net, I’d recommend holding off for the summer sale season.

Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Current Price: $35
Odds to Top 8: 1 in 5
Monday Price: $35

Oddly enough, we have not one but two planeswalkers from Dominaria showing early signs of multi-format utility. During spoiler season, players also widely underestimated Teferi but just a month later pro players are now wondering aloud whether the classic character is actually better than the recently unbanned Jace, the Mind Sculptor in blue-based Modern control shells. In EDH, the interaction with Doubling Season in Atraxa super-friends decks will set up a solid support base for the card longer term even if he won’t see the kind of Legacy/Vintage play that Karn does. In Standard, Teferi is only really showing up in the U/W control builds, where it is a rock solid 4-of. As such, price movement over the weekend on Teferi is likely to hinge on that archetype making waves in the Top 8 and winning the tournament without triggering any serious calls for a banning. That’s a narrow tightrope to walk for short term gains, so as with Karn, I am more interested in targeting rare foils and personal playsets of non-foils a bit later this summer.

Goblin Chainwhirler

Current Price: $4
Odds to Top 8: 1 in 5
Monday Price: $5

Goblin Chainwhirler is a hyper efficient aggro card, presenting a significant body, dueling prowess via first strike and the ability to needle the final point of damage against your opponent or pressure Karn or Teferi from outside the red zone. That being said, it’s pretty tough for Standard only rares from a popular set to hold price tags over $5. As a result, I am more interested in this card to potentially top $10 in the fall once supply has drained, on the assumption that there will still be a red or Rx aggro deck that wants this card in the aggro friendly early days of the fall post-rotation format. If a red aggro deck wins this Pro Tour or dominates the Top 8, there is a chance that Chainwhirler could briefly push $8-10, but supply pressures will likely force a retrace in the coming days or weeks.

Mox Amber

Current Price: $12
Odds to Top 8: Near Zero
Monday Price: $11

Mox Amber was perhaps the most hyped card of Dominaria, with pre-order pricing topping $30 a copy. It’s a mox! Buy, buy! Thing is, this is one of the tougher mox incarnations to reliably squeeze early mana out of, and since a deck hasn’t emerged in either Standard or Modern, we are likely to get a good shot at a solid long term spec here. Later this summer I would expect to be able to snag regular copies under $10, and foils under $20, which is something I feel confidant will pay off over a long enough horizon. Eventually, EDH demand is likely to be supplemented by a tipping point of one and two mana legendary permanents, and an interesting Modern deck should emerge that wants the full four copies. Of course there is also a decent chance that your funds get buried in the spec box for three to five years when you could have turned your funds over multiple times in the interim, so you really just need to decide how much of a pet spec this one will be for you.

Walking Ballista

Current Price: $20
Odds to Top 8: 2 in 5
Monday Price: $20

At this point, we should all be fairly suspicious of any XX colorless creature that WoTC deigns to print into Standard. Ballista is another multi-format all-star, with significant play in Modern, Legacy and Vintage. Showing up in 40% of decks in Standard at present Ballista has a very good chance of winning the trophy this weekend, in any of GB Constrictor, UB Control, Rx Aggro or WB Vehicles. This card has more than proven it’s mettle at this point but none of that is likely to overcome the gravity exerted on non-foil copies as we head into the fall rotation of Kaladesh block. Consequently you should almost certainly be trying to unload your non-foil copies. Longer term I like foils (especially Russian/Korean copies) as a hold or rotation period acquisition, but for now you should be looking for the fire exit.

Current Price: $12
Odds to Top 8: 2 in 5
Monday Price: $12

Vraska’s Contempt has seen a surprising amount of play in recent Standard decks given that it carries a CMC of 4. Turns out that in a format that revolves around powerful planeswalkers and threats that need to be exiled to be handled effectively, flexible removal that also adds a bit of a life buffer is at a considerable premium. This card has been as high as $16, and may fall closer to $8 this summer. There is a chance that post-rotation in October this is still one of the best removal spells in Standard, and that that fact pushes the card back over $14, but I think I’ll elect to stay clear in favor of safer plays. I think this is also a sell call, especially if you have copies beyond your personal play set.

Lyra Dawnbringer

Current Price: $20
Odds to Top 8: 1 in 5
Monday Price: $15, $30 if it wins

We have seen expensive mythic angels on the back of strong Standard play patterns before in both Archangel Avacyn and Baneslayer Angel. Lyra however has so far been on a downward trend, starting out around $30 and falling 50% or so since release. With 20% of Standard decks running Lyra, and in a couple of different archetypes, there is a shot that she can recover and push higher if her pilots start putting up big wins this weekend. Overall however, I feel safer with selling Lyra now, and potentially looking to reacquire in late summer once we have a sense of how the fall Standard meta will shape up.

History of Benalia

Current Price: $20
Odds to Top 8: 1 in 5
Monday Price: $20, $30 if it wins

History of Benalia is an interesting spec. This is a mythic card that is showing up in 20% of Standard decks, and the play is supported by 3-4 of inclusion in both UW control and Wx Aggro shells. That’s a strong pedigree, but in just one format. The real question is whether this can be just as good after rotation. If it is, this could be an excellent fall payoff, with the card spiking over $30 at some point in the next year. On this premise, I suspect I will be interested in $15 copies later this summer. On the other hand, if the white enchantment posts up strong Top 8 results and/or wins the weekend, the spike could come a lot sooner. Keep an eye on the Day 2 conversion rates to decide if that’s a decent play in the shorter term.

Will any of the teams find a way to unlock a hot new deck with solid game against the entire field? Will a fringe deck from the early weeks of the format suddenly end up perfectly positioned to take off? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without enough buyers come Monday morning? Follow along as we explore Pro Tour Dominaria!

Editor’s Note: We will not be providing round by round coverage this weekend but we will provide relevant notes as the weekend progresses.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Casual Fridays

Entry Points for Dominaria

June 1, 2018 Cliff Daigle

The Pro Tour is this weekend, and I have to say that I have no idea what’s going to get played. Standard has a couple of really good decks, and a whole lot of good-but-not-great-but-damn-it’s-fun decks.

It’s also worth mentioning that we are a mere five weeks away from the Core Set 2019 prerelease.

Honestly, we are getting the Pro Tour this weekend, Battlebond is for sale the weekend after, then it’s GP Vegas, and then just a couple weeks to the new set.

That’s a roundabout way of saying that we are almost to maximum supply on Dominaria. It’s time to look at where some prices are, where they might be, and where I want to be buying, in anticipation of unloading them later with notable gains.

For all of these cards, I don’t expect a lot of movement downward in the next few weeks. The market has had time to determine how good or bad cards are, and lots of them have fallen to the lowest price they will be at.

It’s possible that these cards could fall another 10-15% if people don’t play much Battlebond and just dive back into Dominaria drafts when they are available at the local store, which is a risk I’m willing to take on given the forecast for these.

Also, we could see prices fall further based on future Dominaria needs. Let’s say Karn, Scion of Urza stays at his current price through the end of Dominaria, about $60-$65. It doesn’t take much foresight to see his price hitting $80 or higher around Christmas. Remember, Chandra, Torch of Defiance was once nearly $50, and that was in a set that had Masterpieces!

If Karn is that high, and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria climbs from around $35 to $50, which is totally reasonable given Teferi’s adoption in Modern, then we’ve got two jackpot cards.

Remember that the distributor price for boxes is about $75, so hitting on one of those two cards makes opening boxes a very appealing idea for stores, who would then have a ton of the rest of the set to sell. That might depress prices further, and it’s got me pretty concerned.

I freely admit I’m not going deep on anticipated Standard demand. While I am thinking about Standard, my background is as a filthy casual and there’s other tasty targets to stock up on.

Oath of Teferi (75 cents in nonfoil/$5 foil)

I freely admit that every time a NM Foil comes up on TCG under $3, I’m putting it in my cart. I dearly love what this card enables in one of the most common archetypes in Commander: Planeswalker Superfriends. Doesn’t matter which flavor of the deck you’re running, it’s either Atraxa or someone 5-color as the Commander and this Oath is busted like nothing else. Yes, The Chain Veil does the same thing and is colorless (and is in nearly 4000 decks), but this offers no drawback and affects the board when it shows up.

The easy way to tell if a card is going to be popular in Commander (aside from just checking EDHREC, where this is only in 200 decks so far) is if it’s a win-more card. This is absolutely a win-more card. You’re doing great if you have Planeswalkers in play, so now you get to double up! Winner! Don’t underestimate the dopamine rush of having this card in play and going through all of your ‘walkers to get max value.

4500 Atraxa decks, only 200 of any commander playing this. That will change.

Oath of Teferi is not going to go up in value anytime soon. Dominaria is super popular, but the supply of foils is going to be drained, slowly and surely, and won’t be this cheap for long. If nothing else, buy your personal copy now, and a spare or two. You’ll thank me when this is $10 in 12 months.

Mox Amber (currently $14/$45)

I admit that I thought this would fall farther, faster. The early adopters got theirs, I opened three in three drafts (one foil) and traded them all immediately, like they were radioactive. The curve for both versions has flattened out, though, and there appears to be just enough demand for its current leveled-out price.

The supply is gluttonous, though. There’s 350 non-shiny versions on TCG right now, and another hundred foils. That’s a lot of people who’d need to buy in to raise these prices. Plus, unbelievably, more people have entered this Mox into the EDHREC database than they have Oath of Teferi!

Mox Amber is showing up in the Aetherflux Reservoir deck that’s trying to blast people with the giant space laser, but while that’s janky fun, it’s living in an Abrade/Thrashing Brontodon world. That’s pretty rough, and most of the deck rotates out in September.

This has farther to go. I’m going to be patient with this, and I’m definitely not getting any until much later this year, when I’m looking for a range of $10/$30. I think Modern will break this card eventually, making the foils a safer place to park some value.

Damping Sphere ($2/$25)

Yep, that’s a foil multiplier of over 12x, and that’s entirely due to its rapid adoption in Modern as a super-popular sideboard card:

Gotta love Modern. Seven ones, a two, a four, and an X.

Note that while it’s in 12% of decks, the average number is just under two. That means people aren’t loading up on it, they are packing 1 or 2 and that’s it. Because it’s cheap and colorless and it wrecks entire strategies by itself, look at the variety of decks playing it:

Are we missing anything? That’s right, Big Mana decks aren’t playing this!

Control, aggro, combo, midrange…all the colors are represented too. There’s little reason not to have a couple of these around.

This card is going to act like a rollercoaster. It’ll fall out of favor, then Tron/Storm/Ad Nauseum/whatever comes back into style, then this will be the ubiquitous sideboard card again.

That said, this is the price when we are at peak or near-peak supply. We aren’t in Fatal Push territory, but right now is absolutely when you get the ones you’re going to use. It’ll be $5 by the end of the year, and the foils are going to be opened less frequently than you think. Spending $25 now might seem silly for a two-of, but in a year, the Sphere will be at least $40 in foil.

Cliff has been writing for MTGPrice for nearly five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. He’s the official substitute teacher of MTG Fast Finance, and if you’re going to be at GP Vegas, look for the guy under the giant flashing ‘Cube Draft’ sign and he’ll have you drafting in no time!

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: BattleBoned Part 2 – Electric Battloo

May 29, 2018 Jason Alt

I wrote an article last week and this article is part two of that article. I want to jump in and continue but that’s a pretty abrupt jump for some people. If you’re not ready to go from 0-60 in a few seconds, take a second to re-read the article from last week, get back into the thought process we were previously in and hit this one running because the transition from preamble paragraph to the body of the piece is going to be

The Rest of the Reprints

abrupt.

Nirkana Revenant – Class 2

Last night on Brainstorm Brewery, Corbin talked about how the graph of this wasn’t very promising and I guess he’s looking at a different graph than I am. All I see is the buy price about to converge with the retail price, which means a correction would have happened if the reprint hadn’t been announced and I see high dealer confidence in a card whose price has steadily increased for years. If you look at a very similar card, a card I won’t shut up about, you’ll see the effect of a reprint.

Ghast recovered nicely. It doesn’t hurt that Ghast is in 4 times as many decks as Revenant on EDHREC but there are several factors at play there. First is that Ghast is cheaper mana-wise. Second is that Ghast is cheaper money-wise and Revnant may have been previously priced out of collections. Thirdly, Ghast was in a precon so of course it’s going to be in more lists. More people have them and more people succumb to the precon effect and leave cards in the precons when they rebuild them if they’re good enough not to take out. Revenant will likely recover a lot of its value and I think we’ll see a nice, U-shaped graph similar to the one we see with Crypt Ghast, especially with a cheap price on Revenant enfranchising people that may have been priced out before.

War’s Toll – Class 1

This is a good card but it suffers from the fact that most of its growth was very recent as was more than likely predicated on scarcity. We have $4 booster packs with Doubling Season and Land Tax in them and people are going to want to draft these packs a lot. This set will dump a ton of War’s Tolls onto the market. This will tank to bulk and while it may recover, it will likely take a long time. This is in a mere 1,800 decks on EDHREC and that demand isn’t robust enough to cope with the coming influx. Some stuff will never recover and I think this is one of those cards. It likely creeps to $2 in a few years but we have so much time to see that coming, why do anything besides maybe set them aside when you buy them as bulk rares?

Angelic Chorus – Class 1

This is a White War’s Toll. It’s an old card in under 2,000 decks on EDHREC that sneakily crept to like $5 and mostly stayed there. This demand curve is much flatter than that of War’s Toll and it’s in closer to 1,000 decks than it is to 2,000 decks. Everything that happens to War’s Toll will happen to this to a lesser extent and that’s being charitable. The low demand and price predicated on scarcity can’t cope with the coming influx of copies. This is pre-selling for $1.87 and that’s too high.

Mystic Confluence – Class 1

Flat Demand is a bad sign for a card getting a reprint. This is going to tank, probably to $2 or $3 and it probably stays wherever it ends up. This is in 8,000 EDHREC decks, but that number is juiced by the precon effect and its demand curve is basically flat. I think we’re about to get inundated with copies and I bet this takes 3 years to even flirt with $4, meanwhile a ton of other cards in the set are much better looking.

Nyxathid – Class 1

I don’t know which format is propping this up, but it isn’t EDH. This is in like 200 decks. I suspect this is a casual card and I have no idea how to predict what casual demand can do for this card, but I suspect a ton of supply dumped on the market being sniped one at a time by casual players who still buy boosters hoping to get individual cards like I did when I was 12 isn’t getting soaked up anytime soon.

Magmatic Force – Class 1

This card has very little demand and I suspect the price is predicated on scarcity since it’s from the original Commander set from 2011. 1,200 decks on EDHREC can’t really soak up these coming copies, especially since a lot of those decks are old decks like Rakdos, Lord of Riots and Horde of Notions. Newer decks don’t seem interested.

Noosegraf Mob – Class 1

Once a bulk rare, always a bulk rare.

Goblin Razrunners – Class 1

See “Noosegraf Mob”

Greater Good – Class 1.5

I think this has a pretty robust demand profile and I feel like the cheap copies will enfranchise some people who didn’t have access to a $10 card and will encourage them to build with it. Demand for this card was sort of flat but bumped and plateaued every time a new, hot commander was printed for it. Selvala, Angry Omnath. I think this recovers but I think it will take an impetus rather than the modest 6,900 decks it’s in. I think you snag these as cheap as you can, use them to shore up trades that are off by a buck or two and throw these in a box until they’re magically $6 apiece, which I think can happen. It’s Class 1.5 because I think it will get there but unlike Class 1 cards, it won’t get there on its own.

Kor Spiritdancer – Class 1

This card is likely toast. It’s like $5 after its precipitous decline (can a decline be precipitous? Yeah, I just looked it up and it can.) from bogles wanting it briefly in Modern and while it was showing signs of recovering slightly, I think the Modern demand drying up coupled with its very modest (1,671 decks on the ‘REC) EDH demand spells bulk status for this for a while and a pretty slow climb afterward.

Tidespout Tyrant – Class 1

Be honest – you had no idea this card was $8. It was something I noticed but never really found an excuse to talk about despite really liking it (and sometimes confusing it with Roil Elemental, which I like a lot more and you know why if you read my 75% series on Gathering Magic). This is a solid card and the fact that a lot of its demand seems recent makes me think the price is predicated on scarcity. I think this is similar to War’s Toll and I will only change my belief if this doesn’t tank as hard as Toll does. Why shouldn’t it? It has the same graph shape, it has the same tepid EDH demand and it is just as old. This does exactly what Toll does and its higher pre-sale price is puzzling but I think it will all shake out.

Magus of the Candelabra – Class 1

R.I.P. bulk rare

Mangara of Corondor – Class1*

*This card is toast, but the only caveat is that the Battlebond version has the new Legendary card border and it’s possible that foils of this could displace the older foils, not that anyone is trifling with Mangara combo these days. They SHOULD. Everyone talked about how Eternal and Iconic Masters made it possible to build Legacy Death and Taxes and if you run D&T without the iconic Mangara combo with the Karakas you just got from a booster, you’re doing it wrong. Mangara is included in 1,100 decks or so and there are 67 built around the card. That said, I think I might want to try a Mangara deck with a ton of ways to tutor for Helm of the Host and just make the slowest walking Vindicates ever. That doesn’t make this a better buy.

Sower of Temptation – Class 1

I hate to admit it, but this card’s goose might be cooked. I really didn’t think so just as a gut feeling when I saw Sower on the reprint list – I thought this was a good place to park money and it still feels wrong to classify this as class 1 but I literally can’t think of a reason not to based on the data. This is in a mere 2,300 decks on EDHREC, its Legacy demand is dwindling, its price is way down and it’s pre-selling for $3. This is going to tank hard and I don’t see a ton of impetus for this to go way back up. Like Greater Good, if this does go up, it won’t be based on current conditions, it will be based on something happening to change its current circumstances. If I had written about this last week, I would likely have classified it as a class 1 card without thinking, but I think this is likely about to take a beating.

Seedborn Muse – Class 2

This is in 12,000 EDHREC decks and with every new, busted Simic deck that’s possible, the need for these goes up. This is pre-selling for $14 on Card Kingdom which seems high but also indicates they’re aware that this won’t be down for long. For whatever reason, people weren’t playing this half as much before they got to play with Prophet of Kruphix for a few months but now that everyone seems to have gotten the message, they’re using this card, for better or worse. This likely goes to $7 or $8, maybe even lower given that it’s printed as a non-mythic, but this recovers a lot of value and you’re just going to stack cash buying these at the floor.

Apocalypse Hydra – Class 1

Modern Masters 2015 kicked the chair out from under this card and Battleborn will kick it in the throat before we even get a chance to see if it was going to be able to get back on its feet.

Evil Twin – Class 1

Bulk is bulk

Gwafa Hazid, Profiteer – Class 1

Ded.

What I said about Mangara may be true of this – people may want the foil in the new border but that doesn’t really do much for a card with such little demand as a commander.

Mycosynth Lattice – Class 2

Pre-selling for $12, this cut in half already but there’s good news. It’s reprinted in Battlebond as a Mythic, which means it’s not going to get quite the pantsing some other cards are. Secondly, it’s used in over 5,000 decks on EDHREC and a lot of those are recent given the printings of Breya and Jhoira et al recently. It’s a very good combo piece and its price graph shows pretty decent, sustained growth just on the back of being a very useful card and artifacts mattering in EDH basically the entire time there has been a format. This likely doesn’t shrug the reprint off per se but I bet the additional supply won’t do too much to attenuate this card’s growth, which should resume as soon as people start drafting whatever we’re going to draft after Battlebond.

Mind’s Eye – Class 1.5

This strikes me as a card like Duplicant or Solemn Simulacrum – we keep playing them without really ever asking ourselves why. These cards have always been played. They got masterpiece printings. They must be format staples. This is the 81st-most-played colorless card on EDHREC but I have a feeling that it’s on its way down in the rankings. Purely based on data, I don’t think the price growth is robust enough nor the demand (8,500 decks) strong enough to classify this as class 1. Regardless of what I think about its future, more copies getting into more hands and at the cheap rate of a $5 preorder that will almost certainly be too high isn’t going to bring its adoption down. I think this grows less than the juicier targets but I bet this does something.

That does it for this set. I think I at least made a data-based case for my picks but if you disagree on anything, let me know in the comments section. That does it for me – until next time!

Watchtower

The Watchtower 5/29/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

May 29, 2018 Travis Allen 2 Comments

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

I don’t know about you guys, but I was glad to have a long weekend away from Magic. Putting everything aside for several days to sit out on a lake and never think about anything important is necessary occasionally. What’s less necessary is eating the entire 96 hours that you’re gone and making yourself sick constantly with all the garbage. That’s the real Magic finance, right there. Not making yourself sick on Memorial Day with brownies.

Ob Nixilis, Unshackled (Foil)

Price Today: $9
Possible Price: $15

Game Knights, the Commander focused video series put out by Josh Lee Kwai and Jimmy Wong, has become fairly popular, to the point that they’re able to influence card prices with the content produced (unintentionally, of course). Most recently an Atheros deck utilizing Shadowborn Apostle appeared on an episode, and now suddenly Athreos is one of the most-built decks on EDHREC this week. Let me know the next time you’re going to do this, Josh.

Browsing Athreos, Ob Nixlis (the Unshackled one) jumped out at me. Ob Nix is deliciously obnoxious in EDH, chunking players for a whopping ten damage every time they search. Opponents that aren’t dumb as bricks typically aren’t going to be losing much life to this, since they’re not going to be casting Rampant Growth if it costs two mana and ten life, but you do get to basically Mindlock Orb the table. Such an effect will vary between annoying and debilitating, depending on what strategy your opponents are employing.

Ol’ Shakleless came around in Magic 2015, and not since, which makes him about four years old now. That was before every card could show up as a prerelease promo, which means the only foil copies were pack foils. That foil supply has dried up fierce, and the few copies that are left will run you about $8 to $9. Once those last few copies get snapped up, we should see foils land comfortably in the $15 to $20 range.

Kambal, Consul of Allocation (Foil)

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $15

Another nugget on the Athreos page is Kambal, Consul of Allocation. Kambal is especially juicy because he’s flying under the radar in two formats, not just one.

Obviously he’s useful in EDH; that’s how we found him. He clocks in at just a scoch under 5,000 EDH decks, which is a respectable volume, if not overwhelming. Needling players the table round for only three mana is something that all those Rhystic Study players will enjoy thoroughly when their deck doesn’t have access to blue. As long as players in EDH cast noncreature spells there will be room for Kambal in the format, so uh, he’s not going anywhere.

Meanwhile, Kambal has been doing work in Modern too. You’ll find him in sideboards in Humans, Mardu Pyromancer, Eldrazi Aggro, and various other brews. He’s something of a Eidolon of Great Revel, except not in red. For a deck that’s trying to get low to the ground and then make it difficult for opponents to get back in the game, Kambal is an excellent angle of attack. At worst he’s a three mana flag bearer that also drains your opponent for two, and that’s if the very first spell they cast is removal targeted at Kambal. Any other spell they cast first is gravy.

You’ll find a couple more copies than Ob Nixilis on the market, but we’re not talking about hundreds. There’s twenty or thirty floating around on TCG right now, which isn’t red alert levels of supply. It’s like, orange alert? It’s blackwatch plaid alert. It’s “people are going to keep picking these up for Modern and in a few months they’ll be over $10” alert.

Hostage Taker

Price Today: $2
Possible Price: $12

As we enter June (the month), we find ourselves hitting the nadir of Magic prices. Summer is always a slog for basically every price index in the game. People simply don’t think about or play as much Magic when it’s nice out. Friday nights people want to be grilling, at the beach, at the park, and generally somewhere other than humid, never-air-conditioned card stores. I’ve memories of sticking to tables trying to play in July and August and it was miserable.

Point being that cards that will hold double digit prices in the fall can be quite cheap right now, as everyone ignores them and goes off and does other things. Speaking of which, remember when Hostage Taker was $15 and one of the best cards in Standard? That may come to be true again! We don’t know yet. Hour of Devastation gods will be absent, of course, so exiling Scarab God won’t be as crucial, but that doesn’t mean she won’t have plenty of targets. Depending on what Ravnica brings us, the exile ability may be especially useful once more.

Prices on Hostage taker have cratered, thanks in part to a shifting metagame and the time of the year. Come this fall, if things break a specific way — that’s an if, by the way, not a when — prices could skyrocket north of $10. Keep an eye on Hostage Taker and any Ravnica leaks; Hostage Taker may once again have her time in the sun.

Travis Allen has been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

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