The Watchtower 4/16/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.


If you blinked, you would have missed it — Inventions have been eaten up all over the place. It’s a fevered madness right now; even Planar Bridges are selling for nearly $100. And I don’t mean copies are listed for $100, I mean they’re selling for $100. If there are any Masterpieces you wanted that you haven’t acquired yet, stop waiting. I’m not promising that they’re all going to skyrocket in price, but I can promise that they’re not getting any cheaper.

Other than that, we’re all hanging around waiting for Dominaria’s prerelease this coming weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it break sales records, with many long-time players that are partially retired thinking about re-entering the fray. It’s basically Time Spiral 2, and nostalgia is a powerful motivating factor.

Courser of Kruphix (Foil)

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $20

Courser is well understood by now, even if he was missed as hard as a card can be missed when he first came around. After shaping Standard for awhile he was called up to the big leagues, and is now a prominent feature in both Modern and EDH. In the former he’s a mainstay in value decks, with the latest iteration popularized by Todd Stevens. Meanwhile Gabe Nassif is on Twitter posting a similar style deck and calling it the best of the format.

Masters 25 brought a Courser reprint, adding a fresh chunk of foils to the supply. Not too many though, it would seem. There are only about twenty foil M25 copies available on TCG right now. There’s a few less BOG copies than that, and maybe thirty of the promo available. Consider what we know of the demand. It’s all coming from EDH (12,000+ decks) and Modern. Both formats are packed with fans of foils. Pair that with the Modern decks’ relatively inexpensive card set, and foiling out Value Town is more appealing than it may be if you’re playing something like Jund, or anything with Jace in it.

Foil prices depend on which edition you’re looking at, with the cheapest around $6. BOG foils are the most expensive right now (which is unsurprising). Promo foils are still quite cheap, and probably my favorite of the three. They’ve got different art, and are a better card stock than the M25 copies.


Krark-Clan Ironworks

Price Today: $10
Possible Price: $25

This is hardly going to strike anyone as a novel concept, given that the deck won the GP yesterday, but Krark-Clan Ironworks should be on your radar. Supply was low before, and as of this morning it doesn’t appear there’s been too deep a run on it yet. There’s maybe 15 copies on TCG right now, which I don’t think is much less than there was on Friday.

We’ve learned several times that weird Modern decks have trouble keeping prices up on key pieces (think Ad Nauseam). As such, I don’t expect Ironworks to spike and stay spiked after this weekend. However, that doesn’t mean we should discount it entirely. In Aether Revolt the deck picked up Scrap Trawler, which is an important inclusion. There’s now a demonstrable loop for basically infinite mana and card draw, which helps make piloting the deck a lot more manageable.

Another wrinkle is that this is basically the first time we’ve seen Ironworks hammer home an event, and part of that is because the deck is nigh unpilotable on MODO. People try, but I’m told it takes Conley around twenty minutes to execute. Given how unwieldly it is online, it’s remained a much larger question mark, since it can’t be put through the grinder in the space of a few weeks in the same way that most other lists can. Maybe the deck is insane and broken, and we just haven’t been able to get the reps in to figure that out yet?

That’s the angle for Ironworks, basically. That it’s actually busted, and is going to keep succeeding, and we just haven’t known about it because it’s too hard to play on MODO. A few more good placements and then people will start to pay attention, and prices will follow.


Mox Amber

Price Today: $30
Possible Price: $50

I don’t get much more speculative than this. Preorders for the new mythic Mox — the first since Mox Opal in Scars of Mirrodin, nearly eight years ago — are hanging around $25 to $30. That’s definitely a price point that offers the possibility of real returns.

While I’m not positive, I suspect Amber is going to be similar to Opal in the long run. It’s easy to quickly come to the conclusion that it’s too difficult to make use of. “How will you get three artifacts in play before turn three?” wasn’t an uncommon question back in the SOM days. Yet here we are, with Opal being one of the cards closest to the ban list in Modern.

Late last night a list (thanks Liz) popped up in my feed of a Standard combo deck using Paradoxical Outcome, Aetherflux Reservoir, Paradoxical Engine, Mox Amber, Baral, and some other artifacts. That’s the type of strategy that can potentially abuse the heck out of Mox Amber. And it’s definitely not something people were weighing the possibility of when they were complaining about the card four hours after it was spoiled.

Am I recommending you spec at $30? No. I’m not buying any yet myself. Be aware of it though, as it could go from zero to sixty real quick.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


 

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DJ (@Rose0fThorns) has returned from the far reaches of Europe so that he can remind Corbin (@Chosler88) and Jason (@jasonEalt ) of the twitter account password. DJ also brings an interesting discussion of when to and how to arbitrage, masterpieces, and when to get out.

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First Look at Dominaria’s Prices

It’s here! Finally, after waiting untold years, we’re back on Dominaria and we have a whole lot of new cards to look at.

Today I’m sampling preorder cards and looking for bargains, though I’m fully aware that most preorders are a bad idea.

Let’s not wait, or talk too much, but just dive in!

Karn, Scion of Urza (about $32 preorder)

At first blush, you see five loyalty jumping to six and you’re super on board, but the problem is that new Karn needs a lot of help to be good. Even his -2 is going to be pretty lame unless you have lots of artifacts. Your worst-case scenario is making two 2/2 tokens over two turns for four mana, and unfortunately, that’s a common sorcery in this set.

Your best case is that you’re getting a card a turn, and that has potential, especially if you played a mana dork in the first two turns. Giving your opponent the choice of cards is always bad for you, but you’ve got the elegant -1 ability to get it back.

I would like to see this in Modern Affinity, but that’s super-niche and unlikely.

As for his price, the $35 isn’t going to hold. It’ll drop, and affecting the board is hard for him, so he’s never going to be a four-of. He’s got some amazing play in Commander, and I can easily see him getting out of hand in Brawl. I’d imagine he stabilizes around $15.

Teferi, Hero of Dominaria ($15)

This is a little too on-the-nose price-wise for me. He’s instantly one of the best things to do in a WU deck, where defending him and getting the ultimate seems like the best plan ever. His plus ability helps you use the extra card, and we are getting Seal Away, making them best buddies.

As a two-or-three-of in only one deck, he’s never going to have a huge price, but he’s another planeswalker that Doubling Season works really well with, allowing for instant ultimates and enabling all sorts of shenanigans.

It’s possible he drops to $10, but he’s going to see just enough play to keep him between that price and his current price of $15.

Mox Amber ($30)

I’ll say it: I think this is not as good as many people think it is, especially for Standard and Modern.  The only cheap legends people are playing with in Modern are Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, and Kataki, War’s Wage. We have some three-drop Lilianas, but one extra mana on turn three (after dropping a Liliana) seems terrible to me.

Just don’t try to cast this on turn 2 after you cast Thalia…

Standard is a different animal but the design of this card means that you need to drop Shanna, Sisay’s Legacy on turn two, and then you can add a one-drop to the board. Hopefully. It’s not an accelerator, it’s a fixer, a helper, and being legendary it’ll never be a four-of by itself.

Same thing for Commander: It’ll be good, a fixer, but very hard to play early and use in a broken way. Note that Legendary Lands do not allow this to be used, and Mox Opal doesn’t count either. As a result, I suspect this will end up in the $15-$20 range.

The enemy checklands (Isolated Chapel, etc, all around $4)

The mana for three-color decks is pretty good now. Having one Island out means you can have four other colors of mana come into play untapped. I strongly suspect that Esper is going to be the combination that takes over, given Cast Down, Search for Azcanta, and Seal Away as good cheap plays and the ease of mana.

This could be $30 by Christmas, depending on how control decks do at rotation.

This set of reprints has come along at the perfect time, and I think Isolated Chapel will climb the highest, to around $7. The rest are going to creep upward by a dollar or two.

Seal Away and Cast Down ($1/$1.50 each)

I would buy my playset now of either of these. We haven’t gotten to a point where people are playing enchantment hate, and we don’t have incidental hate (such as Dromoka’s Command) to clean these up.  These are going to see a LOT of play, as I wrote about last week, and somehow these are super cheap. I don’t think they will get expensive enough to make a huge profit on, but if you’re going to even possibly play Standard in the next year, get these now.

They are going to spike to $3, maybe even $4, but then trickle downwards.

Lyra Dawnbringer ($15)

She’s better than Baneslayer Angel, who had very specific protections that didn’t help much. Lyra offers a very powerful set of abilities, a top end that is hard to argue with in most decks, and nearly impossible to tangle with in combat.

Importantly, she’s immune to Cast Down, though not Vraska’s Contempt. I hated losing Baneslayer to Doom Blade, because that gap in mana spent is the easiest way to get ahead in a game.

She, along with everything else, dies to Chupacabra.

People would play 3-4 Baneslayer in a deck, and I think the max for Lyra is likely three. She’s a mythic, and a great Commander for an Angel tribal deck. I think her price will drop some, but not too much.

Gilded Lotus ($4)

We haven’t gotten a printing of this since FTV: Twenty in 2013, and not in a booster pack since Magic 2013 (released in 2012), which means that the originals are about to take a bath. Those had made it to the $13 range, but with this version at $4 that’s a gap that won’t last long.

I actually really like picking this up at $4. even if I do wish they had kept the FTV art. This is one of the best cards to cast in Commander, enabling all sorts of stuff no matter the number of colors.

 

Cliff is an avid Cuber and Commander player, and has a deep love for weird ways to play this amazing game, as well as being guest host on MTGFF when needed. His current project is a light-up sign for attracting Cubers at GPs, so get his attention @wordofcommander on Twitter if you’ve got ideas or designs.

Unlocked Pro Trader: Fblthp 2.0

I wrote a pretty… cynical(?) I guess article this week on Gathering Magic which comes out the same day this article becomes free for everyone to read. I feel badly for the team that slaves away making a gigantic, expansive world filled with characters with rich, detailed backstories so that the Magic community can look at all of it and say “Lol when’s Fblthp getting his own Planeswalker card?” I went on a bit of a longer rant than that so if you’re interested in reading what is easily the most acidic and unprofessional article I’ve written on Gathering Magic where I’m usually pretty cheerful-sounding because I want to keep my job, check that out.

I won’t rehash my screed here but it seems like the new, stupid meme from the /r/magictcg gang is that they’ve thanked Richard Garfield for coming out of retirement and helping to design a set with 137 brand new Legendary characters by making a huge, semi-ironic deal out of the fungus monster named Slimefoot. I said on GM that “When you think about it, Slimefoot is a fungus-covered freeloader who spends all of its time in the dark, making it the perfect mascot for the online Magic community” and if it hadn’t been for Gathering Magic, I likely would have added that some fungi are asexual, much like everyone who posts on the main Magic subreddit.

But enough about why Slimefoot’s ironic hipness is an affront to the people who slaved away building an expansive world for Magic players to ignore because they’re basically monsters, let’s talk about how Slimefoof is actually a legit card and could be a good candidate for making some cards go up in price. Let’s do that thing I’m always doing where I make a bunch of really accurate predictions and toil in obscurity because  6 years ago I decided, erroneously, that I would be taken more seriously if I wrote for an established website rather than making terrible videos on YouTube. I’d be Lion if I said I didn’t regret my decision.

 

Slimefoot Best Foot

People are beginning to publish their decks online and while I should wait for EDHREC to do this for me, I’m manually checking a bunch of decklists and manually noticing (is that a thing?) the common cards that are showing up. Also, I brewed the deck and came to a lot of conclusions on my own. I don’t have as much data as I will later but I think I have enough to know what we should be ahead of. I’m going to stay away from foils although this would be a reasonable deck to foil out except for all of the stuff that’s in every EDH that’s not reasonable to foil out. Utopia Mycon is under a buck foil and that may lure you into forgetting that a foil Doubling Season is like $90.

Saproling Symbiosis

This is a card. I am not sure how good it actually is in Slimefoot decks, but a lot of things are happening. Look at the spike at the edge of the graph. In the last few weeks, buylist and retail price on this card both increased. This is going places. It’s an Invasion rare and that means it’s 18 years old. Invasion has $40 Phyrexian Altar and $25 Captain Sisay. Will this be $40? Nah, but it won’t be gettable at under $3 the way it is right now at CCG House so grabble that free money. If you’re not a Pro Trader and you’re reading this and you’re like “There aren’t 5 copies NM and 2 Japanes NM for all under $3 on CCG House right now” that’s because some Pro Trader just paid for their subscription for like 6 months when these babies peak at $10 and they are ready to sell. I’m not paid extra to push Pro Trader but I do sometimes feel bad knowing that people are going to read this and hear about prices that don’t exist anymore. If they’re still there, that means all of the Pro Traders don’t believe me when I say things and I don’t know what to make of that. If you don’t believe me and you don’t buy them either and they’re still there on Saturday, I’ll buy them and that you can believe.

Again, I don’t know if this card is good, but this card is identified and that means it’s going up in price whether it’s good or not. Ask the price of Patron Wizard. You know, for all of the Wizard synergy.

nailed it

If you still can, and I kind of hope you can’t because that means I lack credibility among Pro Traders and kind of hope you can because that’s a gift of free money I’m bestowing on my readers, snag these. I bet they go up. You know, because they basically already kinda are.

Speaking of Saprolings…

Saproling Burst

I’m pretty sure you play this, make 7 saprolings which instantly die as you create the 7th one because they all become 0/0 and you get 7 Slimefoot triggers. I’m not a judge and Magic’s comprehensive rules are pretty stupid but if you only get 6 triggers, I’m going to laugh and say “only” in ironic quotes because that is kind of a lot. This is better with Parallel Lives, you know, that card you’re absolutely playing in the deck. It’s great with Death Pact and Dictate of Erebos, you know, those cards you’re absolutely playing in the deck.  This card is a bulk rare but it’s showing signs of life, kinda. There are approximately as many copies of it as there are of Saproling Symbiosis so they have the same theoretical ceiling if you don’t know anything about other factors. However, it being a bulk rare means the price spike will be mitigated by cheap copies being ferreted out that we won’t see with a card that’s already a couple of bucks. This can still quintuple pretty easily and you can buy in very cheaply. Symbiosis is currently in 5 times as many decks as Burst but Burst is uniquely good in Slimefoot and I think there’s upside. This is riskier because I kind of like to be in on a card when people have moved the price and demonstrated they’re aware, but if you want to make real money, you have to be weeks ahead of them and on Burst, you can be.

Illusionists’ Bracers

This may seem like an odd pick because it’s basically vaguely good in every EDH deck which has a Commander with activated abilities but this is actually part of a few potential combos. Activate Slimefoot with this one for 4 mana to make 2 Saprolings. Sac those Saprolings to Ashnod’s Altar, getting two death triggers on Slimefoot and giving you 4 mana. Use that 4 mana to make 2 Saprolings. Rinse, repeat.

I think Bracers are in a good spot to pop soon, aren’t likely to be reprinted this year and can make us some money. Did you buy $200 worth of these when they were $0.50? Not many people did. It’s OK, there’s time to make money even buying in at $2 and unlike Saproling Burst, every copy of this basically made it into the hands of an EDH player so cheap copies are unlikely sitting in binders because who that plays EDH wouldn’t just buy this loose for $0.50? Look at the dealer confidence in this card, by the way.

Buylist is about to hit retail. If it crosses, we could be talking about an actual arbitrage opportunity on a card that came out in Gatecrash. That’s pretty recent, don’t you think? This is the 55th-most-played artifact on EDHREC. Just seriously break off $100, throw it at Bracers and I’m really confident you’ll make money. Dealers are paying current retail and it’s their job to do this all day. Let’s take them at their word and pay what they’re paying now and not what they’re selling for in 6 months.

Paradox Engine

You lose here if one of three things happens in the next 6-12 months.

  1. Paradox Engine is banned in EDH by the EDH rules commitee
  2. Paradox Engine is reprinted
  3. Paradox Engine gets cheaper for some reason

I don’t think one or two will happen, so why would three? I realize that’s a succinct way to end this section but what more do I need to say? This gives you a lot of mana, it’s an infinite combo with Sprout Swarm a card, and I hate to sound like a broken record, you absolutely play in this deck.

Mazirek, Kraul Death Priest

Here are some interesting facts about this card and the deck it’s in. The deck also contains Meren, which is like $9. It has an $8 Thought Vessel, a $4 Eldrazi Monument, a $7 Eternal Witness and nothing else over $2. The deck is trying to go for like $70 on eBay but the cards add up to like $70 if we’re being generous and paying the full $0.36 on Kessig Cagebreakers and not just calling every rare in there a dime like most of them are. There is room for this deck to grow – Wade Into Battle used to be the worst one and now it’s over $100 with cards like Urza’s Incubator, Blade of Selves, Magus of the Wheel (you know, before), Gisela (you know, before), and a $30 Fiery Confluence because yeah, you probably want 4 of them if you want any of them and this is how you have to get them. I’m saying the deck with Mazirek is a good way to start as a basis for your Slimefoot deck since all of the cards that are in it that are expensive go in Slimefoot except maybe Meren and also Toys R Us went out of business in the USA. Rather than sell their product at 50% off, the company that stocks Magic at big box retailers said “no thanks” and cleared the shelves. Those decks are popping up at my local Target, Walmart and a place called Meijer that if you don’t have them, you sort of missing out. Meijer is like if Target had food but also twice as much non-food stuff as Target. I know some Targets have food but imagine Target had the kind of food you could buy and say “I purchased groceries” rather than “I bought a frozen pizza and somehow a 6 pack of wine in cans” because even when a Target says they have food, they don’t have food. They have food the same way that dude on LetGo with the sealed 2017 gift box has $75 worth of cards to sell you because, hey, they’re his step-dad’s cards anyways and he’s just tryin to do tha old man a favor and do you want them or not quit wasten my time.

If those should pop up in the cards section of your Walmart or Target or Piggly Wiggly (whatever your region’s “Meijer” is. I don’t want you to, but you’ll probably write something like “Food Lion represent!” in the comments section and I can’t legally stop you) they won’t be marked at $70 or $100, they’ll be marked at $34.99 and you should buy them. The GB one is the worst one and you should still buy it for $34.99 because did I mention Thought Vessel is $8 right now? In the mean time, it’s not great to bust these for the $70 eBay dude wants for them which means it’s not super profitable to inject Mazireks into the market. Could Mazirek be as much as Meren? Nah. But it can be more than it is now and I’m banking on that because I bought a lot of the stupid Meren decks at Meijer 6 months ago. I should recoup $34.99 but let’s not pretend I’ll recoup $70 – not in a world where Kessig Cagebreakers isn’t $0.36.

Anyway, this article was dense with good financial advice. If you wouldn’t mind, tell your friends that this article was dense with good financial advice (I’m basing this off of the degree of confidence I have in the picks rather than my own assessment of my own abilities as a writer) and they should read this when it becomes free every week. If you couldn’t buy any of these cards, the Pro Traders got them and you can’t beat them and may want to join them. That does it for me this week, readers. Until next time!

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