Casual Fridays

Preparing for BFZ Rotation

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I wrote a lot of words when 18-month Standard was introduced. Many many pixels were burned out with the weight of speculation about what would happen to prices.

So now, we are looking down the barrel of the realigned plan, with Shadows Over Innistrad block and Battle for Zendikar block both rotating at the end of September. That’s about five months away, but with this current infusion of energy and vitality into Standard brewing, I want to look at what’s worth keeping till the end and what you should be getting rid of soon.

Battle for Zendikar

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar ($25): I would get rid of any extras you have. He’s got some appeal outside Standard, especially as he makes an Ally every turn, but he’s a small presence in a couple of Modern sideboards and that’s it. He’s still the defining card of Standard, though, while he remains legal.

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger ($23): I recognize that this card is about the best thing that Aetherworks Marvel can cast, and is a four-of in those Standard decks. Keep in mind, though, that this is also one of the best things to do in Modern Tron, and is also a popular card in the semi-niche Legacy Cloudpost decks. The foils available for $40 or less are something I would like to have going forward, as the Commander appeal is high. Keep all you have right now–he’s not going to dip far, if at all, when he rotates.

Sunken Hollow ($4) and the other double-check lands: If you think Frontier has a future, this is a fun spec. Fetches will be legal, and these would be among the choices for fetchable duals, since shocklands aren’t going to be allowed. I’m not going to load up on these, not yet. There is a market for these until September, as manabases are going to play lots and lots of duals (and Islands especially, for Engulf the Shore).

Part the Waterveil ($3.50): I don’t think these will fall very much, but this is among the best of the Time Walk effects in the modern day. I’m going to be trading for these on sight for the next year as a long-term hold.

Oath of the Gatewatch

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet ($22): If you like Golgari, or delirium decks, you love this card in Standard. Otherwise, he’s ready to take a big dive. I don’t want to have any at all in my possession when rotation hits. Keep your four if you love the deck in Standard, but he’s a one-of in Modern Jund and while he’s good in Commander, he’s not good enough to keep his price high. A loss down to the $10-$12 range seems likely.

Kozilek’s Return ($11): I’d get out of this card too. It’s already done some funky tricks with its price during its time in Standard, and it’s seeing very little play outside Standard. Get rid of them.

Chandra, Flamecaller ($7): Overshadowed by the Torch, and it’s going to lose some big value at rotation. Sell/trade away all of your copies.

Thought-Knot Seer ($7): The spotlight is off of the Eldrazi in Standard, but my goodness, this is a popular card in older formats. I’m advocating that you keep the ones you have, and aggressively go after more, especially the $20 foils that will be popping at some point.

Eldrazi Displacer ($7): Thought-Knot shines in Modern, and Displacer is not only good in that format but it’s an all-star in Commander. I’m in for picking these up in foil or in nonfoil. We know that the Commander decks this year are tribal, and having one of those decks be Eldrazi seems unlikely.

Oath of Nissa ($4): Not worth keeping, and I’ll get in on some foils after rotation if they fall to about $3, as I think that’s a good entry point for the effect in Superfriends Commander decks.

Sea Gate Wreckage: ($1.50/$3): I’d be picking these up all over the place going forward. I love the potential when it gets lower and lower, but it’s seeing just enough play to keep it out of bulk territory.

James Chillcott, MTG Fast Finance

Is Modern too expensive? (Video Debate w/ Tolarian Academy’s The Professor)

Hey folks.

This week we’ve got some juicy video content for you. Last week, The Professor from The Tolarian Academy YouTube channel stated his case for Modern being too expensive as a format. Here is the original video:

After viewing the video, I had a lot of notes for the professor so we started talking. After a brief chat, we quickly established that a) we were unlikely to ever agree on the fundamentals of the debate on hand and b) it might be interesting for folks to get both sides of the debate in order to drive further discussion.

The professor was good enough to offer to post my rebuttal to his arguments on his YouTube channel, and here is the result for your consideration:

You can find the full script of my segments here, in case you wanted to review my arguments in text form.

Now I should point out that a key segment from the video was cut out in error, and we can’t easily double back on that at this point, so for the record, here is the script from the segment that should have been inserted just before 3:21 in the video.

  • So, let’s dive in.
  • Firstly, comparing the cost of a board game to the cost of a Modern deck, is little different than comparing the cost of a frisbee to the cost of a fully loaded gaming computer or a full set of snowboarding gear. Both alternatives provide entertainment but at vastly different price points to the frisbee. Does this mean that snowboarding and video gaming are “too expensive” and that the price of these activities should be aggressively reduced to more effectively compete with frisbee? Certainly not. The value of every gaming experience is relative, and it’s up to us to decide which experiences we value most and what we’re willing to pay for them.
  • In relative terms, Magic could be considered to be a medium cost hobby. Magic is far more expensive than a frisbee or a deck of cards, but far less expensive than a sailboat, a golf club membership or regular ski trips. Heck, at $30 for popcorn and a movie, or $80 for a mainstream video game, committed movie buffs and video gamers also spend at a rate comparable to a good Modern deck.
  • The reality is that competitive Magic: The Gathering is designed for the committed player who makes Magic a primary hobby, and it is priced accordingly.
  • Most competitive Standard decks are cheaper than Modern decks, with costs typically landing between $100 and $400, depending on the season. Standard decks however are much much susceptible to shifts in the meta game and only last for a maximum of two years.
  • Also, claiming that Modern is essential to encouraging Standard play because it provides an outlet for rotating Standard cards is also fairly loose since 95% of Standard cards are not good enough for Modern, and again, this is by design.
  • Draft and sealed players can also easily spend $500+ per annum.
    It is also worth pointing out that though The Professor was holding up his $1000 UB Faeries deck as an average deck, there are actually a significant number of more competitive Modern decks available in the $500-$700 range. This list would include Burn, Eldrazi Tron, Dredge, Affinity, Merfolk, Tron, Ad Nauseum, Elves and Titan Shift.
  • This list represents a diverse array of options, that while significantly more expensive than a single board game, will still compare favorably to many sports and gaming hobbies in terms of long term value.
  • We should also at least touch on the concept of retail price theory, which would suggest that the difference in participation and sales of Modern related cards and products are highly unlikely to change whether average decks are $450, $650 or $850. See, all of those numbers are still pretty large from the perspective of a casual Magic player.
  • Would Modern participation change if decks averaged $99? Well, yes, almost certainly, but we’ll talk about why that wouldn’t be a good thing in a moment.
  • Carry on at 3:22

    So in keeping with my final challenge at the end of the video, what is the “correct” price for the average Modern deck and why?

    James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

James Chillcott, MTG Fast Finance, Travis Allen

MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 66 (May 4th/17)

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MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: May 4th, 2017

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of the Week

Blowfly Infestation

Blowfly Infestation (Shadowmoor, Uncommon)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $4.00
Gain: +$3.50 (+700%)

Dakmor Ghoul (Starter ’99, Uncommon )
Start: $2.50
Finish: $18.00
Gain: +$15.50 (+620%)

Shining Shoal (BoK, Rare)
Start: $1.50
Finish: $8.00
Gain: +6.50 (+433%)

Heartbeat of Spring (CoK, Foil Rare)
Start: $7.50
Finish: $24.00
Gain: +$16.50 (+220%)

Cut//Ribbons (AMK, Rare)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $3.00
Gain: +$2.00 (+200%)

Flash (Mirage, Rare )
Start: $2.00
Finish: $6.00
Gain: +$4.00 (+200%)

Cryptbreaker (EMN, Foil Rare)
Start: $3.50
Finish: $10.00
Gain: +$6.50 (+186%)

Gideon Jura (M12, Mythic Foil)
Start: $18.00
Finish: $42.00
Gain: +$24.00 (+133%)

Always Watching (SOI, Rare)
Start: $6.50
Finish: $13.00
Gain: +$6.50 (+100%)

Segment 2: Picks of the Week

James’ Picks:

Breya, Etherium Shaper

  1. Breya, Etherium Shaper (C16, Foil “Mythic”)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 9: $4.00 to $16.00 (+12.00/300%) 0-12+ months)

2. Harsh Mentor (AMK, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $12.00 to $20.00 (+8.00/+67%, 12+ months)

Travis’ Picks:

Waste Not

  1. Waste Not (C16/M15, Rare)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $3.50 to $8.00 (+4.50/+129%, 6-12+ months)

2. Sweltering Suns (AMK, Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $1.00 to $4.00 (+3.00/+300%, 0-12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

The guys touched on the results from SCG Atlanta, the first Standard tournament featuring cards from Amonkhet.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week

James & Travis looked at the likely impact of the new 1v1 focused Commander banlist on Magic Online.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Jason Alt

Unlocked Pro Trader: Hapatra Hazard Construction

Last week I was going to write about all of the cards that Hapatra was going to make spike in price. It was going to be a pretty sweet article, to be sure. A few cards like Crumbling Ashes had already started to creep up so pointing out the rest of them was going to be pretty valuable.

However, a wrench was thrown in the works and Protean Hulk was unbanned in EDH. Since I figured that was an “all hands on deck” situation, I wrote about the stuff that was going to go up as a result. I figured Hulk stuff was going to go up immediately as people panic bought as a result of a major event whereas Hapatra cards were going to slink by in the background a little bit, or so I thought.

The truth is, Hapatra is the most popular Amonkhet commander on EDHREC (though not the most popular overall. You think a little thing like an exciting new commander is going to make the internet stop farting out 110 new Atraxa lists a week?) and cards are taking off. A lot of ships have sailed and I realize that referring to specs as “ships” is mixing boat metaphors a little bit. I guess the rising tide raised them and now they’re capable of sailing? Look, the point is, you’re too late on some cards and on others you’re not.

 

What Are We Too Late To Buy?

Crumbling Ashes

Basically as soon as we found out we were getting -1/-1 counter stuff in Amonkhet, this card disappeared. It’s in the $7 range right now and it could come down, although there’s not a ton of pressure on it to do so. There aren’t that many copies, what with a Shadowmoor Uncommon being about as scarce as an Amonkhet rare and with a non-trivial amount of casual and EDH demand for this card before this point. There aren’t copies being ferreted out in collections and store inventories fast enough to control the price so it’s basically a $7 card from now on, barring a reprint.

Blowfly Infestation

This is in the $4 range everywhere it isn’t sold out, except for Card Kingdom which has 1 solitary $0.99 copy which throws off our metrics something fierce. Someone do me a favor and go buy it? It’s Near Mint.

This is another card that rewards you for killing their stuff and it’s a nice tandem with Crumbling Ashes. This is a card I would have warned you about last week and there was probably more than a solitary $1 copy then, to boot. C’est la vie. While it’s important to note the cards that spiked already, let’s not despair – there’s money to be made, still.

Few more.

Quillspike

This gets played in and outside of Hapatra decks, both. When people started messing with -1/-1 counters stuff again, including in Modern, people remembered this combo existed and the low supply coupled with the renewed interest gave some upside to this as well as the other piece of the combo, which also spiked for another reason. There’s ample evidence to suggest the printing of Vizier of Remedies spiked Devoted Druid first and brought Quillspike right along with it.

Devoted Druid

This is going to make infinite mana in a lot of decks (although not Hapatra, though it does make an infinitely-large Quillspike, still) and not all of them EDH so it’s natural stuff that seemed to have cross-format applicability would spike first.

While it’s not 100% fair to say that it’s too late to buy any of these cards, I think there are better targets, so why buy on the off chance that there is some blood to be wrung from these stones (there I go again, mixing my metaphors. I’m like the Krombopulous Michael of mixing my metaphors. Oh, you think that’s a funny reference? Well, I made Krombopulous Micheal up. Try thinking for yourselves for a change.) when we can just buy cards that are sexier targets and aren’t all bought up yet?

What Are We Not Too Late To Buy?

You should know by now what I did. My first step was to go to this page and just look at cards. There are some very sexy targets still out there. That’s the second time in 2 paragraphs I’ve referred to spec targets as sexy. I think that’s because we only spec because it’s sexier than the way I make 90% of the money I make at MTG Finance – grinding. You don’t want to read an article about grinding, you want to check the mail with a tent in your pants. I get it. Let’s move on.

Dusk Urchins

Say! Do you wish your Black Sun’s Zenith was also a Blue Sun’s Zenith? Well now you can!

This card is pretty good. Its stats are wonky for EDH but the fact that it can draw you some cards seems pretty good to me and you’re already going to be playing with -1/-1 counters. You can draw more than 3 cards with this and that’s what makes it so good. I think this goes up along with the popularity of Hapatra decks, which some people insist are not good EDH decks, as if that matters even a little bit. Oh snap, false alarm. The Gitrog Monster decks don’t Tooth and Nail everyone on Turn 4. I guess I better give back all of the money I made on Squandered Resources. On second thought, I better not, because I used it to buy a flight and hotel for GP Vegas. Maybe I’ll just stick with paying attention to trends irrespective of whether I agree with them.

Speaking of Black Sun’s Zenith

Despite being sort of a durdly deck full of weird, midrange black creatures and expensive spells and therefore not selling as well as the sexier Red (Mom’s Daretti), White (Kor Set) and Green (Like, every card in there is a $5 elf) Commander 2014 decks, stuff from the black deck is finally starting to move and this card is no exception. It’s basically above its floor now and showing signs of even more life. How bow dah. Put these in a deck where you want things to have -1/-1 counters on them and watch how many creatures it does that thing to.

Necroskitter

This and the next card I want to mention are both at their floor following a reprinting in Modern Masters and that’s good. If you buy in at the floor, your risk is pretty low since they’re unlikely to go down as a result of increased interest. This was between $5 and $8 before the reprinting which was also before the printing of Hapatra. Will this be $8 again? No. But you didn’t buy them at $1 when they were $8 either, so you’ll probably profit the same amount as if you bought them at $3 or $4 before because you read the casual tea leaves better than I did in those days. Necroskitter was always a card I got sold to me as a bulk rare and remembered to pull because it buylisted for $2. Those were the days.

Midnight Banshee

Another card in the same boat (Look, I’m not going to change the way I talk at this point, so get used to it) as Necroskitter is a card that was $4 or $5, probably because of Skeleton Ship and casual and crap like that. This got a reprint, it’s at its floor, it’s starting to move, you know what to do.

Cauldron of Souls

We talked about this card recently and I think it’s worth repeating. This is a little above its floor and I think it’s as cheap as it’s going to get. Commander 2016 versions are gettable around $2 and that seems good to me. You know how I talk about the U-shaped graph of a card that gets a reprint then recovers nicely? We like to see reverse-J-shaped graphs because we know we’re buying in at the floor if you expect the card to recover. We expect this card to recover.

Flourishing Defenses

This is basically a Blowfly Infestation with a lower power level and less cross-format applicability but a high degree of synergy. This also has a way lower buy-in price and you’re basically at the floor on a stagnant card with the same low supply as Blowfly Infestation and Crumbling Ashes, cards from the same set. This isn’t as good but it’s good and it’s going to be how you win a lot of games. Imagine this with Skullclamp. Hubba hubba! That’s a spicy card drawing meatball. Throw in Attrition and Perilous Forays and you got a stew, baby! Beastmaster Ascension, Cryptolith Rite, this even pairs nicely with Nest of Scarabs. This is going to be played in a lot of Hapatra decks, and I’d spec on something old before I took a chance on much newer rares. We’ve established what can happen to this card on the basis of watching Crumblisg Ashes. It’s less healthy than that card but it’s not a complete slouch. At least pick these out of bulk.

That does it for me this week. Did we miss out on too much by not publishing this last week? I don’t think so. I think while there are cards we missed out on, there are still plenty of opportunities. Besides, half the cards we missed out on began spiking before last week. If you find this article series instructive, and this is going to sound like shameless self promotion, my Gathering Magic article series isn’t a bad place to also check. I don’t discuss finance per se there, but I do talk about cards I like in EDH decks and I discussed Hapatra there two weeks ago. I mentioned quite a few cards from the Hapatra EDHREC page and if I’m building with them and others are building with them, someone is going to buy them – that’s how this works. Thanks for reading and let’s meet back here next week to discuss a few more slow gainers that we have some time to scoop up. Until next time!

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY