What does it mean?

So in case you missed it, we are back to one rotation a year, and that rotation will be in the fall, just as it used to be. But what does it mean? What cards and strategies are impacted? Should I buy now? Should I hold?

Well, it’s actually not that earth-shattering an announcement, considering that the old model didn’t have very long to take root. I freely admit that I don’t play a lot of Standard, so this decision was likely a reflection of conversations with R&D, vendors, distributors, local stores, and of course players. I don’t feel the need to parse the words of the announcement, but I do respect that they are listening to concerns and acting when they can.

A longer rotation means, for us, a return to what many of us consider ‘normal’ cycles with regard to the prices of cards. I have been watching Gideon, Ally of Zendikar for some time, and considering that a bellwether for what good cards should be expected to do financially. In this case, and in a lot of cases, cards aren’t spiking due to Standard demand. Cards were setting a price early and trickling downward, at different rates depending on how much it’s played.

Before the change, there was a point about one year after release when some middling to great cards would spike nicely. My favorite example from recent times was Hero’s Downfall.

downfall

Mmmm. Pure, undiluted value. That spike at the rise of Mono-Black Devotion. One of the things I love doing is hunting for the value that will be, and lots of us write about it.

With the 18-month schedule, it’s very difficult for that spike to happen. Cards are going to rotate out so soon, there wasn’t much time to enjoy your deck, especially for cards released in the second set.

Let’s look at Kozilek’s Return.

return

The power of the card, the need for a four-of, and that it was a mythic in a small set, all contributed to the gain in value, but I don’t think it went as high as it could have, because people knew they were getting a card just for the next few months.

Now, if you pick up some Gideons or Returns, you’re going to be able to play them until next October, making it a lot more palatable to drop the money on a playset.

Gideon is one example, and Return seems likely to pick up a couple bucks, but those aren’t going to grow a lot. I also think that while Liliana, the Last Hope is really well positioned against the swarm of aggressive and tiny creatures in Standard, being at $45 doesn’t leave much area for growth.

Ob Nixilis, Reignited – $4.90 – I know he’s an easily available foil in the Duel Deck that dropped in September, but this is a very cheap price for a strong mythic planeswalker. He does everything a control deck wants, and at worst, he’ll replace himself immediately before getting answered. Being in the Duel Deck is going to seriously cap his value, but cheap planeswalkers are always a solid investment.

Quarantine Field – $1.13 – It’s a bad deal at four mana, but good at six and game-breaking at eight. A dollar mythic is always going to get my attention, though I think Fragmentize puts a top on how high this can go.

Goblin Dark-Dwellers – $1.17 – This was the buy-a-box promotional card so there’s more of them, but this is a card good enough to show up in Modern. I’m a big fan of cards with nowhere to go but up, and we just got a good lesson in how good replaying spells can be, thanks to Torrential Gearhulk. Having flash makes the Gearhulk better, but I like this at a buck.

Oath of Nissa – $2.50 – It’s a rare from a small set that gets played as a four-of. I like getting these and waiting for them to go up to the $4-$5 range.

Cryptolith Rite – $1.37 – Have we forgotten how good these swarm decks can be? This is a real enabler of a card that has good potential to spike.

Declaration in Stone – $5.39 – An excellent candidate to go up now that it’s legal for six more months. If Prized Amalgam decks go up as well, then this or Descend upon the Sinful will really spike.

Ishkanah, Grafwidow – $8.41 – This is a very powerful card, and mythics from this set stand to do very well with the extra time in Standard. I’d look for this to spike by $5 or more when it hits big.

Tamiyo, Field Researcher – $11.41 – There’s two other mythics from this set that are $20+ and all it’s going to take is one good set of results at an SCG open or a GP for this to spike. The supply is rather low (remember, this lost time being drafted due to Conspiracy: Take the Crown) and this could easily be the third card to hit that price.

PROTRADER: Game Day Deck Tech, KLD Edition

Today is not going to be about the new (old?) Standard rotation structure. I’ll tell you that I like it, though, and I suspect that my LGS’s lagging FNM attendance will improve because of it. Today is going to be the start of a new mini-series, and it’s focused on the aspect of Magic finance that tends to get overlooked.

Players new and old tend to approach the concept of Magic finance as “how can I make my hobby cheaper or free?”, only to realize that most of the conversation in that sphere is between vendors. In honor of Game Day Weekend (and a month of [NEW SET] singles pouring into the market), I’m going to tell you which Standard deck I recommend for the upcoming format. This is for the people who want to play in FNM, PPTQ, and 5k level events but don’t have the time, energy, or resources to learn and buy-in to the entire format. These are not going to be “budget” decks, but a key component in my selecting them is that they are cheap enough to give you a good shot at breaking even. I think this first installment does a good job encapsulating a lot of what I want to get across with this series, so let’s dive in!

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 10/20/2016

Well, the Pro Tour has caused some amazing spikes in card prices, and I’m going to talk some about those prices.

I’m also going to dive deep into some older cards that either are good candidates to go up, or have gone up too much and are ready to go back to earth.

The changes to Standard rotation require more thought, and I’ll have more on that next week.

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To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

ANNOUNCEMENT: STANDARD RETURNING TO 24 MONTH CYCLE

Hey all,

In case you missed it, we got a pretty big announcement from Wizards of the Coast today regarding the Standard rotation pattern. Just a year after being told that Standard would be switching to an twice per annum rotation schedule, Wizards has announced that they are switching us back over to a single fall rotation starting immediately.

aaron

Essentially, every fall set will enjoy a full two years in Standard, with the next three sets released after it rotating out as a double block two Octobers later. For example, up until this announcement, we would have seen Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch rotate out with the release of Amonkhet in late April 2017, but now we’re back to the original system, where BFZ, Oath, SOI and EMN all rotate together with the release of the fall 2017 set.

Need a visual?

stdrotation

What’s It Mean?

So what does this mean for us as players and Magic financiers? Well, as a player you get to play with any cards you buy from new sets for a few months longer that you were going to be able to, and it should lead to a reinvigorated Standard scene at your local LGS. On the other hand, the pressure is now on Wizards to make sure that Standard formats are complex and dynamic enough to stay fresh for longer, and individual cards getting banned if things get very stale are slightly more likely now than they were yesterday as a result.

On the finance side, this is great news, as it means that Standard legal cards should revert to the older, predictable model of value appreciation and depreciation that we knew and loved since the mid 2000s. Specifically, look for rares and mythics from say, the fall 2017 block, to spike quickly at release, fall predictably until the fall of 2018 and then spike again based on the play patterns of that new Standard meta, only to collapse again in May/June of 2018 in anticipation of their rotation in fall 2019.

Overall, this gives us more time on average (0 to 6 months depending on the set, since the second block of each year is still rotating on the same schedule, ie SOI/EMN still rotate out in fall 2017) to speculate without worrying about the need to dump cards if they don’t take off in their first year of play. This helps more with the first block of the year, than the second, so take note.

With Masterpiece premium inserts still the norm for the foreseeable future, the expected value of your average rare or mythic in any given set will still be depressed, but they now have more time to take off in Standard and generate a spike.

Why’d It Happen?

There’s only one reason that this change would be reversed before we even got to fully test it out. LGS participation and/or set sales were down, and my guess is both. Hasbro just announced in their investor update earlier this week that Magic: The Gathering revenues were slightly up for the year, so the inference is that supplemental sets were boosting overall sales, but that Standard sets were selling less product as players got gun shy about investing in cards whose rotation horizon always felts just around the corner.

Hasbro/WoTC isn’t interested in letting revenues fall for obvious reasons, so I’d expect this change to stick for several years now that the experiment has failed. Instead, expect Wizards to double down on supplemental products and interesting new ways to increase the average revenue per Magic player over the next couple of years.

So What Now?

From a speculation perspective, now would be a very good time to start looking at heavily played mythics and rares from BFZ/Oath that were depressed more than they should have been based on their looming rotation. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar was one of the most played cards in the top 8 of Pro Tour Kaladesh last week, and as the most important planeswalker in Standard I’d expect him to make a dash for $30 based on this news. The staff will have further notes on this in forthcoming articles. Cheers!

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
Can Gideon ride this change to $30+?

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY