Hot $#&@ in a Champagne Glass

the_monarch_is_delicious_by_blufionex

It’s good to be The Monarch.

This is especially true if you can stay The Monarch. Having a painless Phyrexian Arena is a good way to bury them in card advantage and that’s exactly what you get for becoming and staying The Monarch. There are several cards in every color that can make you The Monarch, but the article today is going to focus on Mardu colors because I want to talk about Queen Marchesa and all of the cards about to go up in price because of her. I mean, or not. Maybe nothing gets enough play to go up. Still, this article series isn’t predicated on popular generals NOT being able to spike prices and this would be a boring series if I talked about cards after they already went up. I mean, it would be boring to me. I bet a lot of people would love being told what they already know by someone who barely knows more about finance than they do. But that’s not me, so I guess we’re stuck trying to predict the future.

Queen Marchesa could potentially be as popular a commander as the other Marchesa and if that is the case, a lot of cards have upside. A lot of them are new because obviously cards in the same set that synergize with her and her Monarchistic strategies will have some upside (probably not enough) but we can also look at some older stuff that is bound to get a second look.

Broadly, we can mention a few cards that will get played roughly as much as Marchesa and could become non-bulk in foil accordingly.  Knights of the Black Rose, Marchesa’s Decree, Thorn of the Black Rose and Garrulous Sycophant all seem like prime foil targets. I’d trade for them rather than buy in for cash, personally. Marchesa’s Decree feels like the only card in the bunch liable to get played outside of a Marchesa deck, although it’s kind of hard to predict how popular cards that introduce The Monarch token to the game are going to be. Making you The Monarch doesn’t just take the token away from someone, it also can literally introduce the token to the game if it wasn’t there before meaning even a terrible 2/2 for 4 suddenly invents a Phyrexian Arena to fight over. It’s hard to say how important that will be, but for cards that also do something worthwhile like Regal Behemoth, I suspect there is real upside there.

Custodi Lich is a card I am very excited about. I think its effect is brutal and combining it with cards like Deadeye Navigator, Eldrazi Displacer and Kaya will make it pretty miserable to be your opponents. Blinking Lich every time you lose control of the Monarch token keeping them from drawing and making them sac their board is oppressive and lich is very exciting as a card. I think it will go up from bulk as people discover its power and as other cards return to a normal value and a lower total set price becomes enforced by cheap packs at Target.

Skyline Despot is another sweet card. Red decks struggle with card advantage and being able to draw an extra card by being aggressive and keeping the Monarch token is legit. Being rewarded with dragons for being the only aggressive player at a table full of turtles is even better. This card has real upside. Not Scourge of the Throne upside, but upside.

We have covered various ways other than summoning your commander to become The Monarch, but how do you stay The Monarch?

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No Mercy is a card I really like a lot. It’s decently reprint able, especially in EDH precons, but it’s old, in low supply and brutal. If they have to hit you to become The Monarch (or deprive you of that card draw) this card is going to make sure they have to keep churning out creatures to do it with. It doesn’t exactly keep you from getting hit but it is a deterrent and is useful against annoying unblockable creatures, creatures with shroud or hexproof and annoying crap like Thada Adel.

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In a similar vein, I have been big on Dread for a long time. It’s a No Mercy with feet and what big feet they are. This has upside moving forward for sure and while it is probably reprintable to an extent, I think WotC’s priorities are elsewhere like printing Avatar of Woe for a 7th time. Dread is a solid reanimation target and all-around decent creature for beating faces. This will punish them for taking your Monarch status away and can also hit them and take it back. He works when tapped which means there isn’t much reason not to serve with him. Dread is good and if you look at Vigor’s price, you can get an idea of the kind of money he could command (and with fewer printings, to boot, increasing his upside by comparison).

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Norn’s Annex is going to be very tough to reprint. The Phyrexian Mana symbols are unlikely to make a comeback anytime soon and if they do return to that plane, it’s not even all that likely that they reprint this card. Its’s not impossible to just jam this in a Commander recon, nothing is impossible, but it is clunky. We have seen uncommon from New Pyrexia go for quite a bit so we know that the rares have a decently high ceiling. This doesn’t get the Modern play Ghostly Prison does (used to?) so that isn’t a good comparison, but Annex is certainly going to be worth more money later than it is now and Queen Marchesa is as good an impetus as anything else.

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Ghostly Prison is down but not out. I think that moving forward, it’s going to move up a lot more slowly than people think. Its high price and high Modern demand was predicated on it shutting down Twin decks, something that we don’t have to worry about anymore. I think these are a buy when they crater due to high supply, but these will never approach the price they were at before.

There isn’t much precedent for what is happening with Ghostly Prison. We had a card with lowish supply spike because of its use in multiple formats including EDH but punctuated by a sudden spike in demand due to its adoption as tech against the prevailing deck in Modern. When that deck went away, the price went down a bit, but mostly we had dealers using EDH demand as a justification for not lowering their prices too much. Why race to the bottom? The cards should sell eventually so why take a loss on a card that used to buylist for $10 when you can wait and sell them for a little more than you paid for them? In my set review I called what’s going on a sort of “Emperor’s New Clothes” scenario where everyone was playing along with the price but a reprint came along which threatened to expose that we had a sticky price that was predicated on circumstances that didn’t apply anymore. The price is going to tank harder than anyone expects and be slower to recover than anyone expects. I like Ghostly Prison as a slow-growth card that is very useful in EDH and I am going to scoop as many as I can when the price stabilizes, but for now, be cautious. No one really admitted what the card was worth before and no one is really taking any of that into account right now.

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Crawlspace was affected by  reprinting in a Commander recon (2013) and that tanked its price to $2 which is an attractive place to buy in. Crawlspace is very good at funneling “wide” decks into less effective ones, especially if you have a 1/1 deathtouch creature ready to block. This can keep you The Monarch but it can also keep other decks off of your back and make it harder to kill you. Voltron decks aren’t deterred, but you have other weapons against those decks. I like where Crawlspace is at price-wise and I think it has upside.

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Finally, I really like Assemble the Legion right now. It’s sort of reprint able, and that will hurt, but it’s also super strong and bound to get there moving forward. It wins games unchecked and is exactly the kind of card you want for a Mardu deck where you’re trying to attack people. This fits in with melee decks as well and that means you could see some upside if anyone decides to build Ariana, Captain of the Guard (they won’t). This card is savage and it’s too cheap. I want every copy of this.

That’s what I have to say about the upside Marchesa will be giving to various cards. Next week we may have some tasty Kaladesh spoilers to delve into, or maybe I will take a look at some other legendary creatures in Conspiracy. Who knows? All I can say for sure is that you’re doing it right by continuing to read my brain vomit week after week and I thank you.

 

GP Indy 2016: Vendor Buylists

Hey all,

Site user Jamie Jones has passed along some sweet pics of the vendor buy lists from GP Indianapolis today.

Have a look at what the dealers are offering for various cards as of this morning on site:

Hareuya Buylist
Hareuya Buylist
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Alter Reality Games Buylist

 

MTG Card Market Buylist
MTG Card Market Buylist
MTG Card Market Buylist Pt2
MTG Card Market Buylist Pt2

 

Pink Bunny Games Buylist
Pink Bunny Games Buylist
Pasttimes Game Buylist Pt1
Pasttimes Game Buylist Pt1

 

Pasttimes Game Buylist Pt2
Pasttimes Game Buylist Pt2

PROTRADER: A Game of Crowns, Part II

So my Conspiracy “set review” is going to be something a little bit different, just because the set itself is very unique. We are going to center the discussion not around individual cards, but the dividing line in the set between constructed-focused cards and group-play focused. Commander is a set that straddles this dividing line from a format perspective, just as Show and Tell does from an individual card perspective, but I think you’ll understand once we get started.

Let’s start with why this card is “bad”:

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Kaya operates on a functional axis that is very different than any form of constructed 1v1 Magic. Playing Kaya is a means of residual card value (in the traditional sense of “card advantage”, which is more accurately “card economy”), rather than a means of simply “this card is a threat to win the game”. Dividing Magic cards into two camps (“Threats”, meaning things that will kill people, and “answers”, which negate threats) leaves a very large undefined portion of cards (think Rampant Growth). These remaining cards are best classified as “materiel”, the resources gained or developed to accomplish the task at hand.

In traditional constructed formats, materiel is prioritized based on immediacy and efficiency- Brainstorm is not better than a Braingeyser for 7 in a vacuum, but the former is a Legacy staple. This is because materiel serves only in the deployment of similarly efficient threats. Put another way- Tournament Magic is about spending resources efficiently, whereas Commander (and associated forms of group Magic) are simply about acquiring more resources1. Kaya is going to draw you a card on two of your next three turns (and also force your opponents to discard, which is probably just so they will actually bother to attack her), and that will essentially be a loop until she is removed or the game ends. Over nine turns, she will draw you up to six cards, which is really impressive. In Legacy, she would likely draw you a card, and force your opponent to discard two cards (one from her ability and the Lightning Bolt that kills her). Tournament Magic compresses the number of turns in a game, where group Magic (by nature of higher life totals, higher converted mana costs, and the intrinsic haze of group game politics) has more turns. Kaya, by virtue of being a card that scales in quality with the amount of turns in a game, is better in formats that are not tournament sanctioned2.

The financial impact here is an interesting wrinkle. Although Commander is not the only multiplayer format, it is currently the de facto multiplayer format. If future generations come to appreciate things like Emperor, then the following rationale may change, but as is we are going to see most of Kaya’s “demand” be in the form of single copies. If a playset of a card can meet the demand of four players rather than one, then the supply can very quickly meet and outstrip demand.

In the case of conspiracies (the card type) and other draft-reliant cards, the overall demand for these is so low that it is hard to see any of them becoming more than curiosities long term.

With all that out of the way, let’s look at what Conspiracy 2 has worth mentioning:

  • Show and Tell/Berserk: Thanks to everyone that pointed out that CNS2 WILL be sold in big box stores AND printed to demand. All of that leads me to conclude that these will be the lodestars for the price of this set as a whole. I am not sure if there can be too many copy of either of these cards, just because Berserk is really the most important card to bridge Modern Infect into Legacy, and because Show and Tell does something in every type of format. Honestly, if everyone had a set of Show and Tells, the checks and balances in the game would correct themselves (and more people would play that angel from Guildpact!). I have worries with too much Infect skewing the health of Legacy, but strangely I don’t think Show and Tell could do that.
  • Sanctum Prelate: This is probably intended to be a constructed card, but it’s not quite Chalice of the Void. In the grand ouvre of white hate bears, this only feels mythic in that it’s not cleanly flavorful. It also only shuts down non-creature spells, making it risky to play maindeck. I guess you name “four”? I honestly don’t know- it’s got to be either that or “two”. This card seems over-hyped and going into a bad offensive scheme; making Sanctum Prelate 2016 RG3.
  • Recruiter of the Guard: This is interesting in a theoretical sense. Is Aluren a really good deck that was underrepresented due to Imperial Recruiter? Or was it a deck that is only decent, but had a quantifiable ADVANTAGE by being so scarce that people never prepared for it? Aluren has had a long reputation in the finance community for being a card/deck that could never really maintain it’s price increases because Imperial Recruiter throttled the amount of potential players. It’s possible that this new Recruiter (which can’t do everything its red cousin can- Painter’s Servant3, for one) creates a brief surge in Aluren decks that then gets normalized by consistent exposure, thereby “solving” the Aluren question posed at the beginning. My bet is that the Aluren deck is good, not great, and people knowing when to time their Abrupt Decays will largely end its time in the sun. They still just have to kill the harpy, right?
  • Followed Footsteps: Another great example of what I was talking about with Kaya. This card is bulk, though.
  • Forgotten Ancient: I helped design this card! Technically.
  • Inquisition of Kozilek: Make no mistake, this card is going to have to claw its way back up to $10, but black is so good in Modern that this will still be the third most expensive card in the set.
  • Burgeoning/Desertion/Phyrexian Arena: Good cards that are not constructed contributors anymore, so their price drops will seem harsh. New Arena art is sweet.
Koth is alive!
Koth is alive!
  • Burning Wish: Better than the three cards listed above, but really only good in one already expensive deck.
  • Stunt Double: Anywhere that you were playing Clone, you are now playing this. Unless your Clone is Alpha, Beta, or Onslaught JP foil.
  • There are a lot of really crappy rares in this set.
  • Serum Visions: Trade these for a pack with anyone who will let you. At uncommon, these are likely to sit below $3 for a long while. This card was really only expensive because it was so (relatively) scarce- the blue decks have so many other expensive cards that this won’t suddenly lead people to build U/x control decks in Modern.
  • Daretti, Ingenious Iconoclast: This seems like a definite include in most cubes, especially Powered ones, but I’m not as sure if it is able to slot into Vintage as cleanly as Dack Fayden did. The +1 isn’t great, and the ultimate is largely just a “win more”. This could easily be the most expensive foil in the set, even if it ultimately underwhelms in cube and Vintage.
  • I really looked for a card that might be Legacy or Vintage playable that contains the word “monarch” in the rules text, but it seems like everything that fits is priced too conservatively. That’s unfortunate, because there are a few matchups in Legacy where there is so little creature combat that it could easily snowball games in your favor. Maybe that’s why? Also, Goad is essentially blank space.
  • regicide

That’s all for today! Also, make sure to check out NPR One “The Next Wave” in the ProTrader forums. Let’s say it’s required reading for next week.

Best,

Ross

1Aaron Forsythe has before said something very similar, and I’m not going to say that I came up with this independently.

2I will always and forever exclude Commander pods as actual “tournaments”- they are more accurately WotC-endorsed ways of meeting new friends.

3Painted Stone- the Tennessee Titans of Legacy decks (because it is terrible and I hate it).

Trading Post: Q1/Q2 2016 – Artifacts & Colorless

Note: This article first went live for our Pro Traders on Aug 23rd/16. To learn how ProTrader can help you make and save money playing Magic: The Gathering for just $4.99/month, click here to watch our short video.

Hey guys,

Trading Post is a new video series I’ve been working on for our Pro Traders. The premise here is to give you guys some fresh video content, with a focus on giving you a window into the stuff I’ve been picking up for short, mid and long term specs. Think of this as a portfolio review series, where you gain access to some of my spec details and set yourself up to take action depending on whether you agree or not. This is another take on the “What We’re Buying” concept that we were running for a while and I’m posting some early work to gather feedback and help tune the final product to your needs.

To kick things off, here is a brief clip covering some of the artifacts and colorless cards I was picking up in the first half of 2016. This content was recorded a few weeks back, so some of the cards have already experienced meta-game shifts and/or spikes or declines, but upcoming segments will be freshly recorded to be a little more timely. If you guys like what you see, or have suggestions for improvements (I realize the video quality is only mediocre and will work on both lens and lighting), fill out the comments to help guide my hand moving forward.

Looking forward to producing some sweet vids for you all moving forward!

James & Team MTGPrice

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