PROTRADER: Emerging Profits at Pro Tour: Eldritch Moon

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of MTG Fast Finance! An on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important Magic economy changes.


Hey everyone. It’s been about a month since I last wrote or appeared on a podcast, a month during which I took an extended vacation. I hesitate to use the clichéd compound adjective “much-needed” to describe it, because honestly, I didn’t really need the vacation. Others need a vacation much more than I did. My girlfriend and I both finished our graduate degrees and decided it was a good excuse to take a trip, so we went. Although I suppose can’t call her my girlfriend now, as she has since become my fiancée. It’s a great life choice overall, but man, getting engaged and subsequently married is probably the second-worst EV decision you’ll ever make, with procreation being the worst. After looking at wedding venues, there’s something to be said for lifelong bachelorhood.

Quite a bit happened in #mtgfinance while I was gone, something I hadn’t counted on. These months are typically the quietest for our little hobby, and instead of three sleepy weeks where the largest gain a card managed to pick up was 30%, half the reserve list was bought out and a burgeoning supervillain of the pharmacy industry waded into Magic. Thanks for saving the juicy stuff until I got back you guys.

A lot has been said, typed, and scrawled in blood on these topics so far, so I’m going to let them be for the time being. God knows they’ll all resurface in time, and I can piss into the squall right along with everyone else when that happens. In the meantime, I would encourage any of you that have been considering purchasing any cards on the reserve list with greater conviction than idle desire to act posthaste. With how few copies are out there of any given card, you could wake up one morning and find that the Polar Kraken you had your eye on for your “things that look like slugs but are actually monstrous sea creatures” EDH deck has risen in price by 2,000%.

Instead, today I’m going to focus on what promises to be an exciting event: Pro Tour: Eldritch Moon. EDM is set to cast its shadow over Standard shortly, and it enters a dense and high-powered format. Until October, Standard will consist of Dragons of Tarkir, Magic Origins, Battle for Zendikar, Oath of the Gatewatch, Shadows Over Innistrad, and Eldritch Moon. For the first time we will see six concurrent sets in Standard. While there won’t be considerably more cards in the format, the complexity is undoubtedly higher, with more themes and mechanics at play than we’re used to. This sets the stage for more breakout decks, especially when you remember that mechanics you’ve long forgotten about are still legal — like dash, which is especially intriguing in the presence of emerge. (Spoiler: there are no good dash cards.)

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Grinder Finance – Casale Pridemage

This week I wanted to share some decklists with you and since I’m not Saito, I couldn’t use Saito Wayfinder.  My last name is said similarly to “Qasali” so here we are.

uw spirits

So this is the spirits deck I’ve been playing and planning to play on release day.  The sideboard is probably a lot of hot garbage but I’m not exactly sure which 15 cards I want.  I know I want Always Watching, Plains, Planar Outburst, and Declaration in stone but the other slots are filler.  The 60 cards in the main deck are solid.  If you’re not sure which deck you want to play on release day I’m sure you can’t go wrong with this.  It’s easy to play and pressures a lot of the existing decks in Standard.  If you play against anyone playing G/W Tokens in it’s pre-Eldritch Moon incarnation you basically get a bye.  This deck preys on the natural weakness that decks right now have to flying creatures and is able to play almost all of it’s spells on it’s opponent’s turn.  It has a very faeries-like vibe to it.

What about the finance?  Well right now you can order the whole main deck for under $130 on TCGPlayer.  The lack of must-have mythic rares for the spirits deck means it will be cheap and effective.  If you’re just getting back into Magic I think this deck will be a very good budget deck that will see some price increases after this weekend.  We’ve already seen Rattlechains increase in price after some initial spirits were spoiled.  Once we start seeing results people will be all-in.

Ishkanah-Grafwidow-Eldritch-Moon-MtG-Art

Which brings me to the best card from the set for Standard.  Don’t remember what this spider does?

ishkanahgrafwidow

This card was pre-ordering for $2 for a bit.  Almost every major online retailer is sold out and the only copies you can find are on TCG Player for $13!  Why the big change?  What did we miss?!  Everything.

Known Enemies in Standard:

  • Archangel Avacyn
  • Reflector Mage
  • Spell Queller
  • Collected Company

How does Ishkanah deftly deal with these menaces?  Quite easily I must say.  He is big enough to rumble with an Avacyn without dying.  He has a very strong ETB ability making Reflector Mage a lot less useful.  He’s too expensive to be hit by Spell Queller.  And he creates a ton of bodies so it’s unlikely even the best Collected Company can kill you.  This is the kind of card that will let you gas up with Tireless Tracker and grind your opponent out with man lands.   In fact, I made a delirium deck to try to test him out.

abzan delerium

This deck was loosely based on Jeff Hoogland’s Abzan Seasons Past that he played at SCG Orlando.  If you’re expecting a lot of Spirits decks this will be a good choice to play at your LGS.  Liliana and Ishkanah make it very difficult to kill you quickly and the raw card advantage from Tireless Tracker lets you win the end game.  Grim Flayer also provides a lot more value than I initially expected.  If you’re not playing against other green decks he will often trample over for 1 damage letting your trade help set up your next few draws.  I often found myself milling card types to quickly enable delirium.  Sometimes it only took one hit to transform him into a 4/4 which gives this deck some especially aggressive draws.  It might be a mistake not playing all of the Languishes in the main deck but the Ishkanahs buy you so much time against decks I’m expecting people to play.

elder deep fiend

This is another pre-order monster that we could have got in early on.  Elder Deep Fiend has been described as the twisted abomination of an Eldrazi baby between Mistbind Clique and Cryptic Command.  I was on a Magic sabbatical during Lorwyn block so I don’t know exactly how obnoxious that was but I have a good imagination.

temur sac

This is probably the worst decklist I’m going to post because the mana is a self described atrocity.  I wanted to jam all the cool cards that combo with Elder Deep Fiend (Kozilek’s Return, Sanctum of Ugin, and Foul Emissary).  Probably should just cut the red cards and play Duskwatch Recruiter (because that guy is fair, right?) and some more green sources.  The games where you emerge a Deep Fiend from a Foul Emissary are almost impossible to lose.  Getting 8 power and taking your opponent’s turn for 4 mana just feels unfair.  It might be time to update the old wise words of wisdom of “Bolt the Bird” to “Bolt the Emissary.”  Either way I don’t expect Elder Deep Fiend to not be a pillar of the format.

Diregraf-Colossus-Shadows-over-Innistrad-Art

Shambling in at little late to the party is Zombies.  This deck has staying power.

zombies

This very scientific graph basically explains how I feel about Zombies.  They’re slow and relentless but they’re inevitable.  The more spot removal people are playing the more embarassing the match up becomes.  You can watch here Ross Merriam dismantle Michael Majors who just has a ton of embarrassing removal spells in his hand.  In tradition with the speed of zombies these days, I don’t expect zombies to come out swinging.  Maybe in a few weeks they’ll shamble into top tier which means you’ve got a little more time to get the cards before they go up.  Unlike the emerge deck and the spirit deck, this deck is very heavy on Mythic rares.  I’d assume it will be playing Gisa and Geralf, Liliana, and Relentless Dead in some capacity which means you should really look to pick them up early.  When decks with a lot of mythics get popular it tends to make the deck cost a lot more.  Now I think is the best time to get in on Dark Salvation. Despite how it looks, it’s quite mana efficient if you have a bunch of zombies in play and isn’t completely dead against opponents with no creatures.  I think it being $1 won’t last long if zombies shamble their way to the top.

Biggest Losers

giselathebrokenblade

Gisela is embarassing right now.  It looks a lot like a Baneslayer Angel but Declaration in Stone, Incendiary Flow, Reflector Mage, Spell Queller, and Ishkanah make it look embarrassing.  It’s great in combat but falls short to all of the non-combat ways to deal with it.

nissa voice of zendikargideon ally of z

The Gatewatch is not looking so hot right now.  These planeswalkers are not great against cheap flying creatures that are likely to be popular and both can also be hit by Spell Queller.  I’m still expecting to see Gideon in sideboards as 4 mana anthem but I think we could see some serious price drops.

collected company card

We’re not 3 months from the rotation of Collected Company.  I’m expecting it to keep falling as people that want to play with the card already own it.  People who don’t want to play with it are selling their copies to purchase new cheap Standard decks.

Showing some promise 

brunathefadinglight

Bruna, the Fading Light’s trigger is a cast trigger.  Didn’t realize that either.  In addition to being a 5/7 flying vigilant behemoth she also lets you reanimate these without fail:

5a 2560a157203a233

Those cards are all various levels of good depending on how much you paid for them but you get the picture.  She’s an obvious combo with her sister but because it’s a cast trigger you actually need to use Ever After to reanimate them both to get Brisela.

oathofliliana

I think this might be the best Oath.  If we see a reduction in decks playing Hangarback Walker and tokens this card gets a lot better.  It can’t be countered by Mausoleum Wanderer and provides a lot of value to decks that would otherwise need an extra turn to get a lot of use out of a planeswalker.  It does a great job protecting walkers from ground creatures because the token doesn’t enter tapped.

Final Thoughts

  • This set is great and will lead to an awesome Pro Tour.  I can’t wait to see what happens
  • This set will be under purchased and you will all hate the prices next Fall.  I guarantee it.
  • Conspiracy 2 comes out next month.  We’ll probably start getting spoilers during the Pro Tour? Maybe the Monday after.
  • Melding cards at the pre-release was basically impossible.

First Look – TCGplayer Adds Buylisting

DirectLogo-primary

Do any of you remember what it was like buying from TCGplayer before TCGplayer Direct? How about selling on TCGplayer before then?

It was a little different, a little weird and a little sub-optimal, though we didn’t know that at the time. All we knew was that when TCGplayer Direct came along, things were going to be different. Now, all of a sudden, when we ordered a whole deck worth of cards or bought a significant number of copies of a card for a spec from multiple sellers, we started getting one package. Sellers would send the cards they wanted to sell in to TCGplayer and TCGplayer would package the cards and send them to buyers, eliminating the need for four sellers to make up four packages to go to one person who would receive those four packages. This is known as “stream-lining” (I mean, I assume, I’ve never taken a Business course in my life) and, like in non-metaphorical streamlining, it reduces drag.

We can agree, then, that TCGplayer has a little bit of experience streamlining the buying and selling process. They have created a marketplace where people who aren’t gigantic stores but rather are individuals trying to get rid of some cardboard can participate. It’s the eBay model but tailored specifically for our specific game. It’s been working pretty well so far. The TCGPlayer marketplace is often a go-to for buying cards, and is often referenced as the going price of a card.

So now that we’re all caught up, do you remember how TCGplayer Direct changed things? Because it’s about to happen again.

The Future

BuylistLogo-primary

In the exact same way that TCGplayer Direct changed the way people bought and sold cards on TCGplayer, TCGplayer Direct buylist is going to change the way people, wait for it, buylist. That is, to say, it’s going to change the way some people buylist, or sell their cards to stores. I think there are a lot of advantages to this method, but I also think this is likely to be a supplement for a lot of us rather than a complete sea change to how we do business. This does have one distinct advantage over all of the methods I currently use, and that is convenience.

Current Methods

The first buylisting I ever did involved bidwicket.com. If you’ve never been to bidwicket, it’s a confusing place. Once you figure out how to navigate it, though, it ends up being worth it – at least it used to before there were alternatives. Bidwicket was useful because it had a lot of buylists from vendors accessible. You would type in the name of a card and it would take you to this page.

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You could click the “sell to store” link down where it lists the buylist prices. You filled up a “shopping cart” for each vendor, and when you finished and checked out, you would process the order separately for each vendor. You would mail the cards to the vendor and the vendor would pay you. Usually. That’s another story, and it’s not really bidwicket’s fault. The point is, this worked fine. A lot of the times, the online price was better than the in-person price and I found myself using bidwicket a lot in between Grands Prix. It wasn’t fast or particularly convenient, but at the time, it seemed worthwhile.

Then websites began to take the next step, with MTGPrice and others developing ways to connect sellers to stores that want to buy their cards.

Snappy

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The big revelation here is allowing you to search both the retail price as well as the buylist price and the website taking you to each dealer’s webpage. These services all work with the goal of not forcing you to go to each dealer’s web site and punch in the card five times. With some offering the ability to fill your cart once and then have that list populated to vendors’ sites, it becomes very easy: you search once, then send them the cards you agreed to sell them (in the order they specify) and you get paid when they get cards. It couldn’t be simpler. Or could it?

While convenient, there are some shortcomings with all these services. Selecting condition is one of them, as are bugs or bad links when trying to tie together so many individual web sites. Some stores only accept NM cards but others grade down for condition but would like to be apprised that they’re getting less-than-NM cards. Another issue is that it’s no fun trying to balance getting less money for the cards and paying more money for shipping because you’re sending out a ton of packages. It’s hard to know how to balance that, and when you’re sending the quantity of cards I was sending, a $12 flat-rate USPS box didn’t always cut it, meaning sometimes it cost $24 to add a new vendor. How many times does that vendor paying a nickel more per card add up to cover the additional shipping? Why do I have to choose which way I’m losing a lot of money in non-free transaction costs? It felt pretty bad.

So what exactly will TCGPlayer offer in this field?

The Basics

BuylistThe premise is simple. Much like an account for selling cards on TCGPlayer, there is a level associated with your account for selling cards to TCGPlayer, and as you complete orders and send the cards in you move up. Top stores in the TCGPlayer Direct program will have the opportunity to be part of the buylist program, and it will essentially create a marketplace for buylists similar to what is currently available. Searching for a card will bring up the marketplace with the current highest offers by stores buying the card.

Player-BuylistOffer-01

There are a few key notes here.

  • Stores pay the fee associated with buying the cards from you. Money is deposited directly to you when the order clears.
  • Because the stores buying from you are part of TCGPlayer Direct, you only ship once. No matter how many stores you’re actually selling to, you only ship to TCGPlayer. One package, one tracking, one insurance – you don’t have to ship to multiple stores.
  • However, by that same token, “stores involved in TCGPlayer Direct” is not everyone. There are plenty of stores with great buylist prices that you’ll find going through MTGPrice or the dealers’ own sites – Card Kingdom and a few others come to mind – that you won’t find on TCGPlayer.

Takeaways

I have monkeyed with TCGplayer Direct for a few days and I think it has a few very distinct advantages over both in-person buylisting that doesn’t let you sell cheap cards or large quantities, and online buylist aggregates which all come with their own set of challenges.

Untitled

TCGplayer Direct is very simple. Sellers will go to the TCGplayer website. Players used to selling cards on TCGplayer will recognize the seller portal but now there is a new option – buylist. You type in the name of a card, search for it, and it will bring up a list of the vendors buying the card for each condition and for foil and non-foil. You will populate the appropriate field corresponding to the number of copies for each condition and edition you are selling and then you submit the offer. It will tell you how much money is coming to you based on the combination of dealers buying that many copies.

If three dealers are paying between $3 and $5 on Night of Souls’ Betrayal and that’s acceptable to you and those two dealers are buying 10 copies total and you want to send that many, put “10” in the field for NM non-foil and submit. You’ll be offered the total of what each dealer is paying for each copy. You’re still splitting 10 copies over multiple dealers only now you aren’t sending in multiple orders. You will drop all 10 copies in the same envelope and send them in to TCGplayer. TCGplayer will verify the order is complete, the conditions are correct and will pay you and give the cards to the dealers.

If that sounds complicated, it doesn’t need to be because all you need to know is that you will type in a card, select as many copies as you want to send in and then mail them to TCGplayer and TCGplayer will take care of the rest. Sending one package is incredibly convenient and you will have access to a much larger number of dealers than you ever did with another service. This saves money on shipping costs and packaging, which is not only valuable in itself but also saves you a lot of time on the front end.

If you aren’t happy getting $3 for your copies, the list will tell you who is paying the most and how many copies that dealer is buying. Just submit that many copies and get the best price, or submit the max number of copies being asked for and take a combination of all prices. You don’t sacrifice any degree of control over the amount of money you get versus other systems and you get additional convenience in the form of only sending one package.

Ultimately, I think this is likely to be a supplement to how I buylist. I still plan to use a combination of the different tools available along with TCGplayer Direct or at least verify that I’m getting the best prices and not losing too much to shipping fees (buyers, not sellers pay all of the fees associated with TCGplayer Direct buylisting so shipping is your only expense as a seller) and I’ll be happy to switch over entirely if TCGPlayer Direct buylisting turns out as good as it looks like it could be.

It will only get better for people as more dealers add TCGplayer Direct as an avenue to get more cards sent to them and more dealers means more competition which means higher prices for players selling to them.  Having monkeyed around with the site a bit, I found it easy-to-use and very similar to other TCGplayer services and I’m excited to see how many dealers add their buylists in the coming weeks. This has the potential to completely change the way I buylist and I don’t see a ton of downsides. All of my criticisms of it were pretty minor (you have to click the search icon instead of clicking on the card name to get the page to come up) but we’ll have to see how the first few weeks go before we can make final pronouncements. As far as a first look at the site goes, I’m hopeful and I think this could be big news for the community, finance or otherwise.

 

PROTRADER: Forcing Better Diversification

If you’ve been following my articles lately, you’ll have noticed that I’m fairly in-tune with the Old School and Vintage markets.  This has become almost a specialty of mine given my interest in such classic formats.  My friend once said “I only like formats where Power is legal.”  It sounds elitist, but there’s some merit to the sentiment and I’m not inclined to disagree.

Naturally the resurgence of interest in these classic cards has made Old School and reserve list cards especially attractive.  It’s been a wild ride since I began the journey 14 months ago in Grand Prix Vegas, where I acquired my first HP Juzam Djinn for $70.

Juzam

Now that many of these Old School and reserve list prices have gone “parabolic”, I have to imagine much of the short-term growth has already been priced in.  Sure, there are a few remaining reserve list cards prone to spike (I’m watching Nether Void, The Abyss, Candelabra of Tawnos, and Dream Halls ).  But for the most part, the easy money has been made on these – it almost feels like the only things that haven’t spiked yet are Power and duals.

Throughout all of this hype, I’ve been severely violating one of my own investing rules.  This week I want to share how I’m deviating from my own prescribed strategy, why I think it’s OK for now, and how I’ve been brainstorming alternate ideas to mitigate the unsuspecting risk I may be taking on currently.

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