MTG Fast Finance is a new weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.
Spike Feeder (Foil), TSP: $9 to $20 (+100%, 6-12+ months)
Disclosure: Travis is holding copies of Arboria.
Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review
James and Travis reflected on the absolute dominance of the Eldrazi decks at Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch, noting that 75% of the Top 8 decks were various flavors of the archetype. Affinity made up the other two decks. Team East West Bowl was called out as the most “tech” team of the tournament based on their brilliant UR Eldrazi build designed to give the deck game against Affinity and in the mirror.
Segment 4: Topic of the Week: Interview with Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch Top 8 Competitor Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)
The guys had a good chat with Andrew covering the genesis of the Blue/Red Eldrazi deck, the community reaction to the deck. the financial impact of the decks’ success as well as the likelihood of a related ban in the near future.
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
A lot of people are freaking out about Eldrazi. The deck with 2 reprinted lands in Modern Masters 2015 and a bunch of Standard legal rares apparently has everyone running scared. This is my way of dealing with it:
For anyone who doesn’t get this, you need to go spend some time and watch Shaun of the Dead.
Either way, my position from last week hasn’t changed. I’ll just take a break from Modern until someone smarter than me figures out how to beat the tentacle menace.
Rally the Ancestors by Nils Hamm
The State of Standard
If you’re not playing a deck that could also be named “Revenge of the Sand People,” then you’re probably trying to play something to beat it. I think we have already seen the power of Collected Company and Reflector Mage as well. So what happens from here?
Collected Company by Franz Vohwinkel
The Short term (next 3 months)
Rally is good, Collected Company is good, Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet is good. But what about in 3 months when rotation happens? Despite coming out very recently, I think it’s correct to sell Kalitas before rotation. My aim would be the week before Shadows over Innistrad spoilers officially start. Kalitas doesn’t actually act very favorably with the self-mill themes that were popular during original Innistrad. His wording is different than Anafenza, the Foremost. With the rotation of Rally the Ancestors I don’t think there will be as big of an emphasis on exiling creatures.
So if you’re worried about the feet coming out from under your Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy we’re slowly coming to the last 6 months of him being legal in Standard. With the release of the unannounced fall set he will rotate. If wisdom from Khans of Tarkir taught us anything, we will see the last spike during the release of Shadows over Innistrad (6 months before rotation). The hype for new madness cards could certainly put him over $100 and his recent lack of Modern play leads me to believe that would be the time to get out.
I’m not sure there Hangarback Walker will go out with a band or a whimper (like our old friend Siege Rhino) but it is important to note that this card is one of very few cards with multiple card types that are Standard playable. This is important for Delirium cards, like the one confirmed in Blessed vs Cursed duel deck.
My last bit of advice is in these next 3 months find some time to grab all of the Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch dual lands. We will need to find a way to make Battle land / Man land mana bases work and it will likely involve a lot of them (since we are losing fetches, which make up a larger portion of many mana bases today).
Do you own 4 of these yet? I know it’s uncommon (pun intended) for uncommons to become very expensive but this guy is the real deal. He punishes fair decks and unfair decks alike, making it unlikely any real strong reanimator strategy is in our future. Once we start moving away from 3-4 color decks I could see him teaming up with Harbinger of the Tides for some sick tempo action. I don’t think it would particularly hard for him to become a $3-4 uncommon if the dominance levels continue.
Also this little Ghostway upgrade could also cause more groans from the audience.
The Long Term
Yeah it happened. Missed the announcement? Check it out here.
I’ll share with you the information I’ve compiled from various sources that should answer most of your questions:
No reserve list cards
$9.99 MSRP
24 packs per box
1 foil per pack
No recyclable packaging (like used for Modern Masters 2015)
It is designed to be drafted and will be on MTGO
It will include Modern legal cards but that is not the focus Source
It will have a limited print run (like Modern Masters)
These cards are in it:
By the time you’re reading this Underground Sea has probably become significantly pricier than last weekend but I think that is to be expected. Unless something happens to the Reserve List, people will continue to purchase those cards knowing they won’t be reprinted and subject to huge price drops. Right now my advice is buy reserve list cards you may need otherwise just “wait and see.” I don’t think the new card availability will do a ton to revitalize the Legacy community.
Final Thoughts
Use this time to clean up your collection. We’re about to head into a rotation with a lot of powerful cards leaving Standard. Some bulk rares will rebound
Watch tournament results. Blips in the standings are the best times to get in.
Almost a month ago I wrote a post in the MTG Price forums advocating that Ghost Quarter – even Innistrad copies – were a buy. At the time there were still hundreds of copies in stock for under a buck and some were as cheap as $0.60. With the success of the Eldrazi deck in Modern, the importance of this card has multiplied fivefold. It’s no coincidence that the price has followed suit.
It’s great to see the buy list curve in blue follow the green curve, indicating dealers are also having a difficult time keeping these in stock. If you’re holding copies, I’d recommend remaining vigilant. I’m not sure if there will be a pullback when Modern season passes. We all know how volatile the Modern format is.
While it was cute to have called this $0.50 uncommon correctly, it doesn’t nearly balance out a couple of hits my portfolio has taken lately. This is what I want to address in this week’s article – some of my disappointing calls, and where I think prices go from here. After all, it’s easy to show off correct picks but one can learn far more from analyzing their own mistakes. Perhaps there are some tidbits we all could benefit from after digging into my misallocated positions.
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Today’s piece is the second half of a set review that started here. In the previous installment we covered all the rare Lands, Artifacts, blue, and black cards. Today we are covering Green, Red, and White. The results are actually better than you would expect!
We are gonna start off with some quick acknowledgments:
I was not nearly as right about the Super Bowl as I was about the Pro Tour. Also, I was totally right about the Pro Tour. Boom, roasted.
That being said, be ready to get out of any Eldrazi cards that you don’t just want to own for the rest of your life. The difference between this deck and something that is just good is that the fundamental engine of the Eldrazi deck does something that Development just doesn’t allow any more. Nature abhors a vacuum, and WotC R&D abhors anything that subverts the fundamental structure of the game.
We are going to finish Urza’s Saga today, but I’m starting an exciting new series next week. I’m really looking forward to it, and so should you.
Antagonism: This card isn’t pushed enough to be punishing in EDH. Compare this to something like Stranglehold to get an idea of the bar it needs to clear.
Bedlam: Another instance of “printed only in Saga and 7th”. This card is actually surprisingly good, as it can represent an instant kill (assuming you have already done the hard work of getting an army in place), and can break up a lot of the gridlock in multiplayer games. As an enchantment this card is hard to get rid of, and can always be sacced and brought back with something like Starfield of Nyx. Foils are only available in the more questionable 7th Ed art, but those are somehow only $4. An interesting long-term target.
Brand: I know there are functions for this card, but it’s ultimately too narrow to have a financial impact.
Bulwark: Another red enchantment that is way too fair and not impactful enough even with the potential of multiple “triggers”. How many turns of this doing little to no damage are needed before this is good enough to be worth five mana and a slot in your deck?
Crater Hellion: Sold out on SCG, but two semi-recent printings (none available in foil) really do a lot in terms of limiting upside. Not sure whether these are sold out as an indicator of demand, or just because nobody has bothered to upload more.
BRIEF ASIDE: One of the reasons why I make sure to note that a card is sold out on StarCityGames is because SCG is on a whole other level in terms of “visibility”. There are people out there who don’t know about TCGPlayer, Cool Stuff, CardKingdom, whoever- but they know SCG. It’s not always reflective of price or any other type of factor, but it is certainly a tribute to their ability to promote to all levels of the Magic-playing populace, even outside of the more enfranchised spheres.
Visibility is a crucial factor in betting on older Magic cards.
Electryte: Cute, but not good enough to be played anywhere. Also possibly the name of a pokemon.
Fault Line: An instant speed Earthquake for just an extra R. I’d play this in Commander for sure, although there is a long list of red X spells that are as good as this or better. How often if ever is this better than Bonfire of the Damned?
Gamble: A Legacy staple that has no chance of ever fitting into modern design/development philosophy. Unlike some of the other cards we’ve liked so far (Lifeline, Yawgmoth’s Will, Tolarian Academy, etc), this is NOT on the Reserve List. According to PucaTrade, there is a little over one copy traded per week, which is actually better than I expected.
Lightning Dragon: The prerelease promo is $8 because it’s a promotional foil copy of a dragon, but the set version doesn’t have any draw in 2016. Our bad dragons now are so much better than our borderline ones were back then.
There have always been Dragon collectors in Magic, but I can’t figure out why…
Scoria Wurm: five mana for a bad 7/7 is not as flashy as it used to be.
Shivan Hellkite: The foil version from Tenth is worth a look. This is the kind of card I always liked pairing with Death Pits of Rath back in the day.
Sneak Attack: Another red Legacy staple that is not on the Reserve List. Honestly, I could see Gamble and/or Sneak Attack in a future commander product, since they are played in multiple formats and styles of archetypes.
Sulfuric Vapors: Another card that just doesn’t do enough. Also, why is every red rare an enchantment that costs 4?
Wildfire: A good card that has too many other printings.
Abundance: This card doesn’t technically win you games, but it does a lot to help you not lose games. I love the old frame and the way it makes this art look, but the Tenth Edition version is a little bit cleaner and easier to read. The foil is $30+, so there is room for the non-foils to creep up. Demand is likely only for commander, which means one copy is enough for most players.
Argothian Enchantress: The Enchantress archetype isn’t as much of a thing now as it has been in the past, but this card is often a 4x staple. I wouldn’t be aggressive in acquiring these, as Enchantress isn’t likely to surge in popularity anytime soon, but don’t pass up on a deal as these have pedigree.
Child of Gaea: There are too many other better Elementals.
Citanul Centaurs: This looks like a character that would be voiced by H Jon Benjamin. Hopefully that makes it into the Magic movie.
Citanul Hierophants: probably one of the fairest ways to generate a lot of mana in your deck. This propels you into the late game, but it doesn’t do anything else when you get there.
Exploration: Conspiracy did a lot of damage here, especially in terms of introducing foils. I love this art a lot, though.
Greater Good: This is probably the ideal green EDH enchantment. I was high on it years ago, but I don’t think I ever expected it to get as high as it is. I don’t know how many reprint outlets it has these days, and all of the printings are pretty old by now. Buy them if you need them, and pick up any deals if you see them. I don’t think these will get much cheaper, although a commander reprint will likely torpedo non-foil prices.
Greener Pastures: This card would probably cost G if it was designed today.
Hidden Herd: A bad Wild Nacatl that is slightly unreliable, especially late.
Hidden Predators: I feel slightly bad about Hidden Herd being rated poorly, but I don’t feel nearly as bad about bashing this. A total trap.
Hidden Stag: The worst of this cycle. The weird part is that the “hidden” aspect here is worse with the advent of Abrupt Decay.
Midsummer Revel: More junk. There are a lot of junk rares in this set, which discourages me from buying packs of this set.
Vernal Bloom: 7th and 8th foils are at ten, but these are certainly the most appealing non-foils. I think the foil versions are probably a little low, especially for 7th.
Angelic Chorus: Probably about right at $4. The foils from Tenth are probably underpriced at $15 looking at Abundance and some of the other cards we’ve discussed in this series.
Catastrophe: Another really good card in multiplayer that is probably close to correct in price.
Faith Healer: An interesting element that could surge alongside things like Starfield of Nyx. Definitely a long shot, and probably only good in niche, pet archetypes.
Glorious Anthem: Too many printings and not enough application to see any price movement here now.
Herald of Serra: Like Lightning Dragon, this is an under-costed version of an old card that is just not really good enough in the formats its allowed to play in. Pass.
Intrepid Hero: An underrated EDH card. Also, in this art the hero looks like a King of the Hill character.
Opal Titan: closer than Archangel, but still on the outside looking in. 2WW is a tough club to break into.
Pariah: Foils from 7th and Tenth are pretty high, which is interesting because this card seems relatively underpowered. I think demand is probably non-existent, so I would just make a note to snag foils if you see them underpriced.
Planar Birth: I love lands in graveyards more than most people, and I have no use for this card. Hard pass.
Remembrance: This card suffers by being useless in the format that would be most inclined to playing it. Too much mana anywhere else.
Worship: This actually spiked pretty recently, because unlike most of this set it has application in Modern. I don’t think it’s really playable, but I think it’s probably a big enough casual favorite that the new price of $10ish isn’t too high to slide dramatically. The “spike” was more realistically a price adjustment, because these were basically free for a long time, despite being a life-long member in the “Underworld Dreams Club of Cards Casuals Like”.
Thanks for reading! That was definitely harder to get through than I expected. I’ll see you next week!
Best,
Ross
UPDATE!!!! So the announcement of Eternal Masters doesn’t change my impressions of these cards in terms of playability, because the set doesn’t sound like it is introducing any new pieces. However, the potential for a new reprint pipeline does mean that any card that is expensive just because it is older and hard to find is likely to tank. If this set drives demand for Legacy or a yet-to-be-announced new constructed format, then it’s likely that early-identified staples actually go up in price (Force of Will, Wasteland). The safest play in terms of respecting all of the options is to target the niches- all of those 7th Edition EDH foils that we talked about, as well as waiting to see what cards don’t make the cut. EM1 can’t reprint EVERYTHING, and I expect this first version to include some casual/EDH staples (my best guess? Greater Good) to try and hedge the audience appeal. Also, there seems to already be a run on Reserve List cards (including Great Whale, which we discussed last week), but this is reactionary action that is likely to burn quite a few people. Avoid it as you would The Noid.
MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
