Almost a month ago I wrote a post in the MTG Price forums advocating that Ghost Quarter – even Innistrad copies – were a buy. At the time there were still hundreds of copies in stock for under a buck and some were as cheap as $0.60. With the success of the Eldrazi deck in Modern, the importance of this card has multiplied fivefold. It’s no coincidence that the price has followed suit.
It’s great to see the buy list curve in blue follow the green curve, indicating dealers are also having a difficult time keeping these in stock. If you’re holding copies, I’d recommend remaining vigilant. I’m not sure if there will be a pullback when Modern season passes. We all know how volatile the Modern format is.
While it was cute to have called this $0.50 uncommon correctly, it doesn’t nearly balance out a couple of hits my portfolio has taken lately. This is what I want to address in this week’s article – some of my disappointing calls, and where I think prices go from here. After all, it’s easy to show off correct picks but one can learn far more from analyzing their own mistakes. Perhaps there are some tidbits we all could benefit from after digging into my misallocated positions.
The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.
Today’s piece is the second half of a set review that started here. In the previous installment we covered all the rare Lands, Artifacts, blue, and black cards. Today we are covering Green, Red, and White. The results are actually better than you would expect!
We are gonna start off with some quick acknowledgments:
I was not nearly as right about the Super Bowl as I was about the Pro Tour. Also, I was totally right about the Pro Tour. Boom, roasted.
That being said, be ready to get out of any Eldrazi cards that you don’t just want to own for the rest of your life. The difference between this deck and something that is just good is that the fundamental engine of the Eldrazi deck does something that Development just doesn’t allow any more. Nature abhors a vacuum, and WotC R&D abhors anything that subverts the fundamental structure of the game.
We are going to finish Urza’s Saga today, but I’m starting an exciting new series next week. I’m really looking forward to it, and so should you.
Antagonism: This card isn’t pushed enough to be punishing in EDH. Compare this to something like Stranglehold to get an idea of the bar it needs to clear.
Bedlam: Another instance of “printed only in Saga and 7th”. This card is actually surprisingly good, as it can represent an instant kill (assuming you have already done the hard work of getting an army in place), and can break up a lot of the gridlock in multiplayer games. As an enchantment this card is hard to get rid of, and can always be sacced and brought back with something like Starfield of Nyx. Foils are only available in the more questionable 7th Ed art, but those are somehow only $4. An interesting long-term target.
Brand: I know there are functions for this card, but it’s ultimately too narrow to have a financial impact.
Bulwark: Another red enchantment that is way too fair and not impactful enough even with the potential of multiple “triggers”. How many turns of this doing little to no damage are needed before this is good enough to be worth five mana and a slot in your deck?
Crater Hellion: Sold out on SCG, but two semi-recent printings (none available in foil) really do a lot in terms of limiting upside. Not sure whether these are sold out as an indicator of demand, or just because nobody has bothered to upload more.
BRIEF ASIDE: One of the reasons why I make sure to note that a card is sold out on StarCityGames is because SCG is on a whole other level in terms of “visibility”. There are people out there who don’t know about TCGPlayer, Cool Stuff, CardKingdom, whoever- but they know SCG. It’s not always reflective of price or any other type of factor, but it is certainly a tribute to their ability to promote to all levels of the Magic-playing populace, even outside of the more enfranchised spheres.
Visibility is a crucial factor in betting on older Magic cards.
Electryte: Cute, but not good enough to be played anywhere. Also possibly the name of a pokemon.
Fault Line: An instant speed Earthquake for just an extra R. I’d play this in Commander for sure, although there is a long list of red X spells that are as good as this or better. How often if ever is this better than Bonfire of the Damned?
Gamble: A Legacy staple that has no chance of ever fitting into modern design/development philosophy. Unlike some of the other cards we’ve liked so far (Lifeline, Yawgmoth’s Will, Tolarian Academy, etc), this is NOT on the Reserve List. According to PucaTrade, there is a little over one copy traded per week, which is actually better than I expected.
Lightning Dragon: The prerelease promo is $8 because it’s a promotional foil copy of a dragon, but the set version doesn’t have any draw in 2016. Our bad dragons now are so much better than our borderline ones were back then.
There have always been Dragon collectors in Magic, but I can’t figure out why…
Scoria Wurm: five mana for a bad 7/7 is not as flashy as it used to be.
Shivan Hellkite: The foil version from Tenth is worth a look. This is the kind of card I always liked pairing with Death Pits of Rath back in the day.
Sneak Attack: Another red Legacy staple that is not on the Reserve List. Honestly, I could see Gamble and/or Sneak Attack in a future commander product, since they are played in multiple formats and styles of archetypes.
Sulfuric Vapors: Another card that just doesn’t do enough. Also, why is every red rare an enchantment that costs 4?
Wildfire: A good card that has too many other printings.
Abundance: This card doesn’t technically win you games, but it does a lot to help you not lose games. I love the old frame and the way it makes this art look, but the Tenth Edition version is a little bit cleaner and easier to read. The foil is $30+, so there is room for the non-foils to creep up. Demand is likely only for commander, which means one copy is enough for most players.
Argothian Enchantress: The Enchantress archetype isn’t as much of a thing now as it has been in the past, but this card is often a 4x staple. I wouldn’t be aggressive in acquiring these, as Enchantress isn’t likely to surge in popularity anytime soon, but don’t pass up on a deal as these have pedigree.
Child of Gaea: There are too many other better Elementals.
Citanul Centaurs: This looks like a character that would be voiced by H Jon Benjamin. Hopefully that makes it into the Magic movie.
Citanul Hierophants: probably one of the fairest ways to generate a lot of mana in your deck. This propels you into the late game, but it doesn’t do anything else when you get there.
Exploration: Conspiracy did a lot of damage here, especially in terms of introducing foils. I love this art a lot, though.
Greater Good: This is probably the ideal green EDH enchantment. I was high on it years ago, but I don’t think I ever expected it to get as high as it is. I don’t know how many reprint outlets it has these days, and all of the printings are pretty old by now. Buy them if you need them, and pick up any deals if you see them. I don’t think these will get much cheaper, although a commander reprint will likely torpedo non-foil prices.
Greener Pastures: This card would probably cost G if it was designed today.
Hidden Herd: A bad Wild Nacatl that is slightly unreliable, especially late.
Hidden Predators: I feel slightly bad about Hidden Herd being rated poorly, but I don’t feel nearly as bad about bashing this. A total trap.
Hidden Stag: The worst of this cycle. The weird part is that the “hidden” aspect here is worse with the advent of Abrupt Decay.
Midsummer Revel: More junk. There are a lot of junk rares in this set, which discourages me from buying packs of this set.
Vernal Bloom: 7th and 8th foils are at ten, but these are certainly the most appealing non-foils. I think the foil versions are probably a little low, especially for 7th.
Angelic Chorus: Probably about right at $4. The foils from Tenth are probably underpriced at $15 looking at Abundance and some of the other cards we’ve discussed in this series.
Catastrophe: Another really good card in multiplayer that is probably close to correct in price.
Faith Healer: An interesting element that could surge alongside things like Starfield of Nyx. Definitely a long shot, and probably only good in niche, pet archetypes.
Glorious Anthem: Too many printings and not enough application to see any price movement here now.
Herald of Serra: Like Lightning Dragon, this is an under-costed version of an old card that is just not really good enough in the formats its allowed to play in. Pass.
Intrepid Hero: An underrated EDH card. Also, in this art the hero looks like a King of the Hill character.
Opal Titan: closer than Archangel, but still on the outside looking in. 2WW is a tough club to break into.
Pariah: Foils from 7th and Tenth are pretty high, which is interesting because this card seems relatively underpowered. I think demand is probably non-existent, so I would just make a note to snag foils if you see them underpriced.
Planar Birth: I love lands in graveyards more than most people, and I have no use for this card. Hard pass.
Remembrance: This card suffers by being useless in the format that would be most inclined to playing it. Too much mana anywhere else.
Worship: This actually spiked pretty recently, because unlike most of this set it has application in Modern. I don’t think it’s really playable, but I think it’s probably a big enough casual favorite that the new price of $10ish isn’t too high to slide dramatically. The “spike” was more realistically a price adjustment, because these were basically free for a long time, despite being a life-long member in the “Underworld Dreams Club of Cards Casuals Like”.
Thanks for reading! That was definitely harder to get through than I expected. I’ll see you next week!
Best,
Ross
UPDATE!!!! So the announcement of Eternal Masters doesn’t change my impressions of these cards in terms of playability, because the set doesn’t sound like it is introducing any new pieces. However, the potential for a new reprint pipeline does mean that any card that is expensive just because it is older and hard to find is likely to tank. If this set drives demand for Legacy or a yet-to-be-announced new constructed format, then it’s likely that early-identified staples actually go up in price (Force of Will, Wasteland). The safest play in terms of respecting all of the options is to target the niches- all of those 7th Edition EDH foils that we talked about, as well as waiting to see what cards don’t make the cut. EM1 can’t reprint EVERYTHING, and I expect this first version to include some casual/EDH staples (my best guess? Greater Good) to try and hedge the audience appeal. Also, there seems to already be a run on Reserve List cards (including Great Whale, which we discussed last week), but this is reactionary action that is likely to burn quite a few people. Avoid it as you would The Noid.
Oath of the Gatewatch has been out for a while now and the prices have started to stabilize.
Well, mostly, anyway. Right now, Oath has a surprising amount of value, both because it’s a new set and because the Modern Pro Tour just spiked a bunch of the rares from this set.
With 42 rares and 12 mythics, I want to look at where I think prices will settle out. Already, only a dozen cards have a Fair Trade Price at above a booster pack’s MSRP of $4, and there’s a lot of room for them to fall.
As ever, my goal is to pick out the cards that will bottom out when the season of drafting Oath–Oath–Battle for Zendikar ends, and that will have about 15 months of being Standard legal still in front of it, excellent time for it to go back up in price.
Nissa, Voice of Zendikar ($13): Nissa hasn’t made any waves yet and that’s what we want right now. Commander players have mostly picked up their copies at this point and now we are going to let the market drive her price down gradually. I’m hoping she gets to about $7 before Shadows of Innistrad comes out, as that represents a very safe price for a three-mana, steady-advantage planeswalker who still has more than a year of being Standard legal.
For Nissa, everything is going to depend on the current meta. Right now, she’s not very good, and that should hold through April, pushing her price down as Oath packs get cracked in search of more Eldrazi.
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet($20): Maybe, just maybe, his price drops to $15 as more and more packs get opened. Aside from being just a strong, good, powerful card, he’s got very relevant text against decks like Rally, who want to use the graveyard as a resource. This ability seems like it will be even more relevant when Shadows Over Innistrad arrives, and I had been hoping to pick him up about $10. As it is, though, I don’t think he will fall much farther before Oath season ends.
Kozilek, the Great Distortion ($14): The headliner of the set, this Kozilek is actually better than the original, but is definitely harder to cast. The double-colorless restriction is not as bad in Commander, where Sol Ring continues to reign supreme, but it’s got the potential to draw you more than four cards and offers some ability to protect himself with the counterspell ability. I will be surprised if he goes much further down, unlikely to even make it to $10. I do not think he’s going to see Tron play, as those decks had a chance at a guaranteed four cards and passed it up. So only casual demand, or unforeseen Standard play, is going to raise this price.
Chandra, Flamecaller ($11): I think this is about the perfect price for her, considering she’s already seeing a small amount of play. She will never be a four-of, and getting in at this price will at least be stable. I won’t be shocked if she creeps up to $15 in nine months or so.
World Breaker ($10): I didn’t think this would be this high at all! It’s seven mana, for a big reachy body, that exiles instead of destroys. It’s being played as a four-of in some of the new Ramp decks, and that’s fun, but I don’t think the long-term potential is there. This is destined to be $5, at which point I’m still leery of the growth potential. Yes, it’s better than Acidic Slime in Cube, but it’s so expensive!
Mirrorpool($6): This is better than you think it is. It is tricky to use but carries a relatively low cost, since it’s a land and not a spell. This is a card that most Commander decks would enjoy having, as long as there’s enough other sources of colorless mana. I expect this to get to $3 over time, and that’s when I’d like to have a few for the “Wait a couple of years” box.
Goblin Dark-Dwellers($4): This is an intriguing card, even for being the buy-a-box promo. With every three-cost spell printed, this gets better and better. The easy uses involve removal spells (it’s already responsible for recasting many a Crackling Doom, for instance) but there’s more and more utility available as time goes on. I think that this has versatile potential, and I’m hoping this drops to $2. At that point, I’d want to pick up a dozen or so to set aside.
Stormchaser Mage ($2/$17 foil!): This card is getting a lot of buzz as a Monastery Swiftspear with evasion. It’s an uncommon from a small set and it’s quite possible that the price never goes lower. I’m not sold that it’s better than Young Pyromancer, but it’s going to get a crack at Modern or even Legacy play eventually. I’m not going to be aggressive about it right now, but it’s on my radar. Foils being at an 8x multiplier really sets off alarms to me, but without any results yet, it’s hard to say for sure that you should move in. I prefer to wait and get a little more data before buying the foils.
Sea Gate Wreckage ($2): I think this has further to fall, though it’ll never be bulk. It’s an amazing casual card, and while control decks never want to be empty-handed, there are plenty of other decks that will happily dump their hand in order to enable extra cards. When it gets to $1, I’m going to move in on more than a few copies. The foil is currently at $9, indicating the casual appeal is quite strong.
Ruins of Oran-Rief ($.50): If this didn’t enter tapped, It would likely be in Affinity decks. As it is, I love this as a bulk card going forward for the casual player. It’s not going to light the world on fire, but it’s steady advantage and upgrades everything in an artifact deck or a Devoid deck. It might end up in the quarter bin or even the bulk box, but even at fifty cents I like having a few.
Sleep is for the weak. At least that is what Jason and Marcel want you all to believe as they both pick the first week of February to have their kids. Marcel has to bow out this week due to child-related obligations so the gang gets a very special guest to fill in – Mr. Frank Lepore (@FrankLepore), hot off of his first ever PT where he finished Top 8 which we hear is pretty good. Frank has a lot to talk about and the gang wastes no time interrogating him. Want to know the future of Modern? Look no further.
Frank Lepore (@franklepore) is our guest this week
How did the PT go? (Spoiler Alert – Top 8)
How did the Eldrazi deck perform
Bans necessary?
What stops the Eldrazi decks?
Shadows over Innistrad discussion!
Pick of the WEEEEEK! It’s baaaaack!
Support our Patreon! DO IT. You know this cast makes you more than $1 a week
