Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch: Top 8 Coverage

After sixteen Rounds of Swiss, including six rounds of draft, we are looking at one of the most star-studded Top8 lineups in years, including two Hall of Fame members in LSV and Shuhei, and a plethora of accomplished players at the highest levels of the game. Despite the top tier talent on display, the community concern is high after bannings of Splinter Twin and Summer Bloom seem to have yielded a metagame fully dominated by various Eldrazi decks relying on their broken lands (Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple) to power out threats ahead of curve. Two Affinity decks did make it into the Top 8, as a fast and powerful archetype that can sometimes outrace even the Eldrazi, but the health of the format is still called into question.

Here are the players who made Top 8, along with the decks they are playing today:

• Shuhei Nakamura (Eldrazi)
• Ivan Floch (Eldrazi)
• LSV (Eldrazi)
• Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi)
• Pascal Maynard ( Affinity)
• Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)
• Frank Lepore (Eldrazi)
• Patrick Dickmann (Affinity)

Overnight, the following cards gained in price from their Pro Tour exposure:

• Drowner of Hope (foil): $2 to $12
• Eldrazi Obligator (foil): $2 to Sold Out at $10
• Blinkmoth Nexus: $6 to $12
• Blinkmoth Nexus (MM2 foil): $12 to $20

Quarterfinals

Shuhei Nakamura (CFB Eldrazi) vs. Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi)

Folks have been disrespecting the UR Eldrazi deck all weekend, but the stats don’t lie. This deck went 19-1 on Day 1 across 4 different pilots, and did nearly as well on Day 2.  Across the first three games of a best-of-5 series vs. Hall of Fame member Shuhei Nakumura, however, both Eldrazi Skyspawner and Drowner of Hope go toe to toe with one of the best players in the world, playing a CFB team designed Eldrazi deck, and manage to take Tao up to 2-1. The spikes on cards from the UR Eldrazi deck were slow to take off, as many people likely had trouble believing that this pile of former limited cards were actually worth playing in Modern, but the tide had turned by Saturday evening, with foil copies of cards like Drowner of Hope and Eldrazi Obligator, drying up almost entirely.

In Game 4 Tao gets off to a fast start with two Eldrazi Mimic on Turn 1. On Turn 3, a Reality Smasher from Tao, prompts a Dismember, but the Mimics still get in. An Oblivion Sower from Shuhei seemingly stablizes the board but a timely Eldrazi Obligator clears out all defense and Tao moves on to the semi-finals against the Hall of Famer!

Luis-Scott Vargas (CFB Eldrazi) vs. Pascal Maynard (Affinity)

LSV takes the first two games. In Game 3 Maynard gets a fast start, but LSV has a Ratchet Bomb to blunt the early attacks. A flurry of exchanges leaves one robot left in the air a few turns later, and Maynard gets a game. In Game 4, LSV has to mulligan to 5 to find a satisfactory hand. Maynard gets off to a fast start with Inkmoth Nexus, two Signal Pests and a Memnite. LSV gets his third land into play on Turn 3 however, and LSV manages a Reality Smasher that swings. Master of Etherium from Maynard puts LSV on the back foot, but he answers with Dismember and holds back his Smasher to block. The defensive plan is dashed however, as Maynard squeezes through enough damage in the air to take the match to 2-2.

LSV boards in his Chalice of the Voids on the play, and finds a hand with one to use on zero, along with a Pithing Needle and a Dismember. Maynard goes to six cards and dispatches an early Chalice with Ancient Grudge. LSV needs to find a land to get more of his hand on the table. A land off the top a couple of turns later, and LSV gets a Thought Knot Seer to clear a Master out of Maynard’s hand, pumps his Mimic to 4/4 and swings with it alongside an Endless One. A few exchanges later, LSV is forced to trade a Blinkmoth for an Inkmoth from Maynard, with two Reality Smashers stuck in hand. With one Matter Reshaper on the board and another off the top, LSV applies enough pressure, finding the needed land the following turn and putting away the match to advance.

Patrick Dickmann (Affinity) vs. Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)

Patrick takes Game 1 in quick fashion with a blistering Affinity draw. In Game 2 an early Whipflare from Dickmann clears the board of Mimic and Obligator, and Brown is forced to lean on a Hurkyl’s Recall to slow down the Affinity aggression. Another copy of the same blue instant does similar work, and a Chalice of the Void on one traps a pile of cards in Dickmann’s hand. Even still, the Affinity player manages to drop two Ornithopters and a Steel Overseer, and takes Game 2 through a Reality Smasher that joined the party too late. Patrick Dickmann accelerates just as fast in Game 3, and stuck on lands for a couple of turns too long, Brown falls in three games.

Frank LePore (Ingester Eldrazi) vs. Ivan Floch (Eldrazi)

LePore takes Game 1 on the back of Drowner of Hope, a card that continues to exceed expectations in the context of these grindy ground battle based games. In Game 2, an early Ghost Quarter from Floch on LePore’s Eye of Ugin, forces Frank to drop an Urborg that enables an Oblivion Sower from Floch, and Frank elects to move on to the next game, tied at one a piece.

In Game 3 a huge board stall ends up swinging in Flochs’ favor, and he moves up a game, leading 2-1 in the match. The fourth game finishes quickly, with early pressure from LePore going unanswered soon enough to save Floch, and the players move to the tie breaking game. Game 5 is a tense back and forth, but Floch manages to come out on top and moves on the Top 4 where we have one Affinity deck and three Eldrazi decks remaining.

Semi-Finals

Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi) vs LSV (CFB Eldrazi)

Tao explodes out the gate with two Mimics and a 2/2 Endless One on Turn 1, demonstrating the potential explosiveness in the Eldrazi decks’ ability to fracture the usual mana curve of Modern decks. LSV manages a Dismember, but is quickly run over, losing Game 1 in less than five minutes. In Game 2 Tao is again manage to present an aggressive series of attacks, but only after LSV has knocked him down to four life. Forced to bet on a bad draw from his opponent on the next turn Tao, attacks with everything, but dies to a top decked Reality Smasher from LSV.

In Game 3 Tao seems poised to take the game with a significant on board advantage, but a masterful sequence of defensive plays from LSV baits Tao into an unsuccessful attack that leaves him wide open to the crack back. LSV takes the lead 2-1, looking to close out the match in the next game. Eldrazi Obligator closes out Game 4 quickly in favor of Tao however, and forces a final game to decide our victor.

Between games Tao receives a warning on the basis that he did not actually have the mana to activate the Threaten ability on Obligator. LSV then mulligans twice looking for a competitive hand, and the stage is set for an anti-climatic final game. Not able to find the defense he needed to get back in the game, LSV falls and we find Tao in position to battle for the top slot having defeated back-to-back Magic Hall of Famers.

Patrick Dickmann (Affinity) vs. Ivan Floch (Eldrazi)

In Game 1, Master of Etherium is back on camera as a renewed Affinity staple in this meta. Floch is forced to play defensively in the face of a top tier draw from Dickmann, finds himself pinched on mana on a key turn, and Dickmann is able to present lethal to take the first game. In Game 2, Dickmann stalls out with two Ornithopters in hand, and three Signal Pests on board, facing down an active Eye of Ugin that provides everything Floch needs to get take the game and even things up at one a piece.

Game 3 ends up hinging on a well timed Gut Shot on a Vault Skirge preventing the use of SpringLeaf Drum to cast a second, and Dickmann is Reality Smashed a turn or two later. Dissatisfied with his first hand, Dickmann sends it back looking for a grip that can bring the pain. Floch takes off fast however, following up a Turn 1 Mimic with a Turn 2 Reality Smasher off of Simian Spirit Guide mana. Dickmann fails to pull out of the hole, and Floch takes the match 3-1, knocking the remaining non-Eldrazi deck out of the tournament.

Finals

Ivan Floch (Eldrazi) vs Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi)

So it’s an all-Eldrazi final after all. In Game 1 Ivan Floch finds three Reality Smashers before Tao can really get established on board, and the game is quickly won by the colorless Eldrazi deck pilot.

To start Game 2, Floch has to mulligan to find sufficient action, and despite trying to stabalize on Oblivion Sower, an Eldrazi Obligator from Tao demonstrates yet again how well tuned the UR build is for Eldrazi mirror matches. Tao also takes Game 3 with a well-timed Thought-Knot Seer knocking out a key Reality Smasher to pressure Floch into concession.

In the final game, Tao gets to start with Gemstone Cavern in play, dropping an Eldrazi Mimic and an Eldrazi Skyspawner on Turn 1. Floch, mulliganing to 5 cards, is unable to gain much steam. Turn 2 has Tao dropping Vile Aggregate, and attacking for seven damage with Mimic and Skyspawner. One attack later, Floch is top decking to hang on and can’t find an answer. Tao is our champion on UR Eldrazi, using Eldrazi Skyspawner and Drowner of Hope to win a Modern (!) Pro Tour.

Wrap-up: Look for Eldrazi staples to hit close to peak this week. It’s a great time to get out, since the ban potential of the deck is high in the next 3-12 months and gains are already significant. Death’s Shadow, Infect, Burn and Affinity cards should do well this month as well, since they represent the decks that have the best chance of keeping pace with this utterly broken land base.

Setting Up Day 2

After 8 surprising rounds on Friday, including three rounds of draft and five rounds of Modern, a metagame mix of established decks and exciting new archetypes has emerged to dazzle and amaze. Affinity (13%), Burn (13%) and Infect (13%), archetypes expected to show up here in force, have in fact landed in quantity.

So far however, the top table hype has largely been dominated by the presence of several surprising builds of Eldrazi Aggro strategies (as I correctly predicted before the tournament) that have set aside the BW control builds from earlier this season in favor of highly aggressive builds including cards such as Endless One, Eldrazi Mimic and Matter Reshaper.

At the end of Day 1, only two players stood alone at 8-0, having 3-0’d their drafts and boasting a perfect 5-0 record in Modern.  New Zealand native Jason Chung drove home the power of Blood Moon, in his updated version of Blue Moon, a UR control deck running many of the cards from the now defunct Splinter Twin archetype along with main deck Blood Moons aimed at shutting down the many decks trying to get too fancy with their land base. Standing shoulder to shoulder with Chung is US based player Jiachen Tao and his insanely innovative UR Eldrazi Aggro build. While running the expected core of Reality Smasher and Thought-Knot Seer, Tao also ran multiple copies of Eldrazi Skyspawner, Drowner of Hope and Vile Aggregate to go wide and hit hard as the situation demanded. The coverage team seemed stunned as the “draft deck” continued to mow down one opponent after the other and many of the deck brewers among us will be hard pressed to not root for Tao to continue his streak as the day progresses.

The financial stories of the weekend thus far mostly revolve around the stampede to buy out cards from the various Eldrazi decks that have floated consistently to the top tables.

All of the following cards have enjoyed significant spikes in the last two days.

A common theme here is undervalued Eldrazi rares from the BFZ block, many of which most people overlooked as being Modern playable. Chalice of the Void, a major player in the Delver/Treasure Cruise era of 2014, now finds itself back on centre stage as a key piece of tech in the Channel Fireball version of the Eldrazi Aggro deck, often using Simian Spirit Guide to lock opponents out of the game with early Chalice or faster Eldrazi beats.

Often in need of reliable lands that produce colorless and colored mana, the ascendant Eldrazi are also pushing prices on older pain lands up on the basis that they are suddenly Modern playable dual lands.

Death’s Shadow aggro was the deck of choice for several key European players, but the total number of pilots is relatively low and selling into the hype now is the safest move if you are holding copies and looking for a good exit point.

• Chalice of the Void: $20 to $40 (+100%)
• Endless One: $1 to $2.50 (+250%)
• Endless One (Foil): $3 to $20 (+700%)
• Eldrazi Mimic: $1.50 to $4.50 (+300%)
• Eldrazi Mimic (Foil): $4 to $16 (+300%)
• Death’s Shadow: $4 to $10 (+250%)
• Death’s Shadow (Foil): $10 to $40+ (+400%)
• Sulferous Springs (10th): $3 to $8 (+267%)

Wow, that’s a lot of massive spikes to come out of a single Modern tournament! Clearly, the Splinter Twin/Summer Bloom bans are having the desired impact.

I suspect that it will take several more tournaments before the ideal Eldrazi build becomes clear, but the power level of the archetype, largely derived from Eye of Ugin, is now undeniable in Modern. Non-foil versions of the cards du jour like Endless One, Mimic and Death’s Shadow are likely fine to sell into this hype train, though a solid Top 8 appearance for these cards could potentially yield further gains, especially on foils.

Follow along with us as we stalk the final 5 rounds of Modern play before the cut to Top 8.

Round 12

In Game, Yuyaa’s combo plan goes off as planned, and we’re off to Game 3. Game 3 sees LSV cast a pair of Thought-Knot Seers to empty Watanabe’s hand of relevant combo pieces, and LSV moves to 10-2 with the CFB Eldrazi aggro build centered around Chalice of the Void, Simian Spirit Guide and Eldrazi Mimic.

Owen Turtenwald (Infect) vs Frank Karsten (Affinity)

These guys are both at 8-3 heading into this round and took a game a piece off camera. In Game 3, Owen manages to slip in for a huge eight poison damage and puts exits the round at 9-3. Infect looking like a reasonable contender for a Top 8 slot, while Karsten is likely out of contention.

Martin Muller (Death’s Shadow Aggro) vs. Patrick Dickmann (Affinity)

The Europeans split the first two games as well, with both players at 8-3 so far. In Game 3 Muller manages to land a Stony Silence (a card that enjoyed a recent spike) and limits the action from the Affinity deck, but Dickmann manages to put it away regardless with some aerial attacks. Mulle falls to 8-4 and Dickmann takes an Affinity deck to 9-3.

At the end of this round the tournament is led by Frank LePore, running his own version of Eldrazi at 11-1.

UR Eldrazi Deck Tech

Jiachen Tao explains that the deck just kept winning in testing. Deck went 19-1 on Day 1! 4x of all of Eldrazi Mimic, Eldrazi Obligator, TKS, Reality Smasher. Drowner of Hope, Eldrazi Skyspawner, Endless One, Vile Aggregate. Runiation Guide x 2.

3x Dismember, 3x Cavern of Souls, 4x Eldrazi Temple, Eye of Ugin x4, Gemstone Caverns x1. Scalding Tarn x4 . Tao calls Vile Aggregate a new modern staple (!) and better than Tarmogoyf (!!) in the context of their deck.

Round 13:

Ivan Floch (Eldrazi) vs. William Jensen (Infect)

Flock enters this round at 10-2, while Jensen is at 9-3. Floch quickly takes Game 1, and Jensen gets another bad hand Game 2 to lose the match. Flock goes to 11-2 and seems likely to put an Eldrazi deck in the Top 8.

Frank Lepore (Eldrazi) vs. Andrew Brown (Eldrazi)

Frank leads the pack at 11-1. His Eldrazi build runs Wasteland Strangler, Matter Reshaper and World Breaker as per some earlier builds. Brown is on the UR Eldrazi build. In Game 1 Eldrazi Obligator grabs Worldbreaker and swings for the win, as I quickly nab 10 foil copies of Obligator and marvel at the insanity of this deck and how badly most of us are at evaluating Modern playable cards.Brown takes a quick second game as well, and puts the UR Eldrazi build in first place, with a strong chance of making Top 8.

Bart Lewandowski (Abzan Company) vs. Matej Zatlkaj (Death’s Shadow Aggro)

Both of these players at 9-3. This could determine whether Death’s Shadow or Collected Company get some Top 8 camera time. Zatlkaj goes down to 9-4 and it seems likely that Abzan Company makes Top 8.

Mike Sigrist on Eldrazi also likely to make Top 8 with Eldrazi.

Deck Tech #2: Death’s Shadow Zoo

Fabrizio Anteri describing how they modified the core zoo creature base to accomodate Death’s Shadow and increase % of hands that provide Turn 3 kills. Death’s Shadow is run of a 4-of. Thoughtseize x3 main. Street Wraith x4 makes the jump from Living End to help reduce your life total fast enough. 3x Become Immense, 4x Temur Battle Rage also in the deck and possibly highlight that these foils are under-priced at present since they keep showing up in various Modern aggro builds. Also running 4x Mishra’s Bauble. Lands are made up of a pile of shock and fetch lands to ensure low enough life totals to make use of Death’s Shadow.

Round 14:

LSV (CFB Eldrazi) vs. Frank LePore ( Black Eldrazi)

LSV lives out my theoretical magical x-mas land as he drops double Mimic off of Eye on Turn 1, follows up with a Thought-Knot Seer, and destroys Frank on Turn 3. In Game 2 LSV keeps a threat light hand, and Lepore jumps out in front with Mimic, Reshaper and Thought Knot Seer to own the beat down and even things up. Both players playing for Top 8.

Game 3 is one of the best on camera of the entire tournament with LSV geting Frank down to 1 before a board stall kept tension for several turns, finally being broken by the combination of an Oblivion Sower and a Gut Shot off the to guarantee LSV his next Pro Tour Top 8!

Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi) vs. Samuel Pardee (CFB Eldrazi)

Triple Eldrazi Skyspawner from Tao off two islands and a Shivan Reef, puts Pardee on the back foot early in the first game. An Obligator seals the game on the next turn.

Off camera Shuhei Nakumura goes to 12-2 on Eldrazi, putting another monster brew in the Top 8. Ivan Floch also goes to X-2 with Eldrazi, beating Infect. Half of the Top 8 likely to be Eldrazi.

Round 15

Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi) vs. Kentaro Yamamoto (Through the Breach)

This UR Eldrazi deck went 19-1 in Day 1 between its various players. Yamamoto’s deck features Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, which could be noteable if this deck makes Top 8 since Jace is seeking prominent homes in the format. Game 1 is won on the back of a newly played Ruination Guide, allowing Tao to get in for a pile of damage. In Game 2 a timely Stubborn Denial stops the first combo attempt from Yamamato, but a Faithless Looting leads to a Goryo’s Vengeance and into Emrakul to wipe the board and the Japanese players takes the game to force a tie breaker. In Game 3 a Thought-Knot Seer off the top takes out a critical Through the Breach and the UR Eldrazi deck goes to 12-3 and makes Top 8 for sure.

Off camera LSV loses to Patrick Dickmann, putting both at 12-3. Paul Cheon finds a Galvanic Blast off the top to put himself in Top 16 for a very solid finish.

Dech Tech: Eldrazi CFB

• 4 Reality Smasher
• 4 Thought-Knot Seer (“best card in deck”)
• 4 Matter Reshaper(“like Kitchen Finks”)
• 4 Eldrazi Mimic
• 4 Simian Spirit Guide
• 4 Endless One
• 2 Spellskite
• 4 Chalice of the Void
• 4 Dismember
• 2 Ratchet Bomb
• 4 Eye of Ugin
• 4 Eldrazi Temple
• 4 Blinkmoth Nexus
• 3 Mutavault
• 4 Ghost Quarter
• 3 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
• 2 Wastes

Our Top 8 is so far set to include:

• Shuhei Nakamura (Eldrazi)
• Ivan Floch (Eldrazi)
• LSV (Eldrazi)
• Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi)
• Pascal Maynard ( Affinity)
• Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)
• Frank Lepore (Eldrazi)
• Patrick Dickmann (Affinity)

With that, the financial signals are clear. The Eldrazi cards are likely to hold their spike for a while, but upside on the more expensive ones and foils may be held back for feat of a banning on Eye of Ugin.  The UR Eldrazi decks still looks underrated financially, as many of the key foils have not moved much today.

Join us tomorrow for one of the best Top 8s of all time based on talent, and one of the least diverse in terms of archetype.