Commander 2015 Decklists – What Does It All Mean?

November 10, 2015 Jason Alt 8 Comments

The full decklists for Commander 2015 have been published, so the slow trickle of spoilers is over, and now we have the weekend to make moves. It’s a little late to do anything rash, but it doesn’t hurt to be forewarned going into the next few weeks. Let’s talk about what matters and what could happen.

First of all, here are the decks.

“Call the Spirits” AKA Daxos, the Returned

Relevant new cards – Daxos, the Returned ($3), Karlov of the Ghost Council ($3) , Grasp of Fate ($4), Righteous Confluence ($4)

Relevant reprints – Lightning Greaves ($7), Karmic Justice ($7), Phyrexian Arena ($10), Black Market ($12)

Relevant exclusions – Grave Pact ($8), Dictate of Erebos ($2), Phyrexian Altar ($20)

If you were paying attention to my articles, you may or may not be impressed. You may be impressed that I identified Phyrexian Arena and Black Market as likely reprint targets, or you may be not impressed because I identified other cards that weren’t reprinted. Either way, it’s too late to sell off now, and I have to imagine these cards, especially Black Market, can shake off the reprints.

Star City Games is only charging $6 for Black Market right now and that price is going to go down before it goes up. I’d watch what the price of Black Market does closely. Since a lot of the value of this deck is in reprints and not in new cards, I don’t see speculators targeting this product heavily, which means the price isn’t likely to plummet to much. Black Market was a card I identified as a potential corollary to Wurmcoil Engine, which rebounded nicely after the Commander 2014 reprinting.

I think if we see Black Market dip below $5, especially the old border copies, you should trade aggressively for them. The card is insane in EDH and the reprint might help it in the long term because, like it or not, this may be the first time some players see this card and it may alert them to something they need in their deck and didn’t know was real. I’m stocking up around $5, because I want a lot of these for my decks and I was holding off, hoping for a reprint. I see opportunity here.

Similarly, Star City Games only wants $4 for Karmic Justice right now and that number is also going to go down. While the supply is greatly increased, Karmic Justice’s price wasn’t entirely predicated on scarcity but rather mostly on playability, and more copies won’t entirely mitigate the price. I bet we see Karmic Justice rebound to a price nearly perfectly midway between its future $3 and its pre-reprint price of $7. There isn’t a ton to be made, here, but if you trade for these at $2 to $3 and buylist them for $3.50 in a year, I don’t think you’ll be that upset, especially if you trade away Standard cards that are going to lose their value. I love trading Standard cards away and picking up EDH cards, it’s like getting 100 percent of retail for your cards by shipping to a buylist in a little while.

“Seize Control” AKA Mizzix of the Izmagus

Relevant new cards – Mystic Confluence ($7)

Relevant reprints – Blatant Thievery ($4),

Relevant exclusions – An expensive card

I predicted a Legacy-playable card would be printed to make up a lot of the value of this deck and while they sort of tried with Mizzix’s Mastery, no one is confident that card will go anywhere.

Players seem to be bullish on Mystic Confluence, given that a lot of people consider Jace’s Ingenuity playable and this is that but better. The card simply isn’t good enough to maintain all of the value of the deck. This is going to keep prices mostly from collapsing, but Mystic Confluence might be prohibitively expensive because there isn’t much financial impetus to buy the deck. EDH players wanted something that interacted with artifacts and didn’t get it, and they’re similarly upset at all the $3 cards that are going to be $0.50 from now on.

I think there is opportunity, here. I think Aethersnatch will get a little cheaper before people realize how good it is, but I think it could go up from its current $3 fairly easily. It’s a better Desertion and Desertion flirted with $10 for a while before its second reprinting in Commander’s Arsenal. If Aethersnatch goes below $2.50, I’m going to target it in trades.

Mizzix’s Mastery is very cheap, also. If anyone tries to play this in some sort of Storm deck, it’s going to go way up from its current $2 and people will want them a playset at a time. Luckily for EDH players, no one is going to want Mystic Confluence for Legacy anytime soon, so EDH demand is going to dictate what prices in this deck do.

I wish they hadn’t jammed a Thought Vessel (thoughtlessly) in every deck, because not every deck needs it and a little scarcity could have helped the price do something. Reliquary effects are lazy from a design standpoint and make the game annoying, but no one wants to be the first guy to eschew them, so they’re here to stay.

“Plunder the Graves” AKA Meren of Clan Nel Toth

Relevant new cards – Wretched Confluence ($4), Meren of Clan Nel Toth ($4), Skullwinder ($2)

Relevant reprints – Eldrazi Monument ($10), Eternal Witness ($6), Mycoloth ($4), Lightning Greaves ($5), High Market ($4)

Relevant exclusions – Pernicious Deed ($3), Abrupt Decay ($15), Grave Pact ($8), Dictate of Erebos ($2), Asceticism ($10), Lord of Extinction ($13), Yavimaya Hollow ($10) (unreprintable)

First off, I want to say I bring up Yavimaya Hollow, because it is worth a second look given the new Simic and Golgari decks. It’s on the Reserved List, as I was reminded when I wrote my Golgari article because I never remember to check that. With the card getting more looks as more people build more decks and no more copies coming, that seems like a safe place to park a few Hamiltons.

Speaking of that Golgari article, I do think it’s funny that reading the comments I see Eddie Sárraga say, “Lotleth Troll and not Spiritmonger?” It’s not funny because I was right about both of those things, but because it was a guess, and when I read that comment, I remember thinking, “Crap, they could totally reprint Spiritmonger and then this guy will laugh at me,” which didn’t happen. Spiritmonger wouldn’t have been a terrible reprint, but didn’t really fit the theme of the deck. I picked Lotleth Troll based on it doing color-pie-appropriate stuff since I figured they would build the deck around a Golgari key strength. Spiritmonger is a good “standalone” card, but doesn’t place nice with graveyard shenanigans the way Lotleth Troll does. It wasn’t an actual total guess on my part and was heavily influenced by the logic that the article was predicated upon. Not a bad guess, Eddie, but no Spiritmonger this time.

This deck is heavily valued based on reprints. I don’t see any of the new cards going super nuts and becoming a ton of money, so the reprints are going to be the key draw for buying the decks and will accordingly have a tough time holding value.

We dodged a bullet as Butcher of Malakir got yet another reprinting instead of Grave Pact or Dictate of Erebos, two cards I expect to hold their value and increase dramatically in the case of Dictate. A reprint on Dictate before I can realize any profit from the heavily invested position I am in is a risk, and I took it gladly, but I would just as soon not have it happen. Reprint Butcher all you want. That card costs too much mana and is easier to kill than an enchantment. I mean, sometimes.

‘Wade into Battle” AKA Kalemne, Disciple of Iroas

Relevant new cards – Blade of Selves ($1), Anya, Merciless Angel ($4), Fiery Confluence ($4)

Relevant reprints – Gisela, Blade of Goldnight ($4), Urza’s Incubator ($6), Lightning Greaves ($5), Taurean Mauler ($3), Sun Titan ($3)

Relevant exclusions – Aggravated Assault ($9), Scourge of the Throne ($9)

I did pretty well with my predictions on this one, nailing giant tribal enabler Urza’s Incubator while I urged people not to hold onto Gisela, Blade of Goldnight and to wait until the spoilers to buy in if they were inclined. I had a few people message me telling me they saved some money by waiting and avoided losing some by shipping these cards, so I feel pretty good. I expected way more spells in this deck. Only nine total cards that aren’t artifacts or creatures? That’s so few. Every deck I see built with this precon in mind is predicated on a Sunforger package, so maybe that’s where we should look for opportunities.

There just isn’t a lot of value in this deck. It could be the worst one, and I think people predicted that would happen when they saw Kalemne spoiled. Ironically, grousing and talking about how the Boros deck would be the worst was people being optimistic. That optimism paid off—Boros is bad. Oh well. The blue and black decks were both pretty bad last time, and they both have pretty staunch defenders.

Besides, if we don’t care, a bad deck could help us. Here’s why. People who like some of the cards or just don’t care about prices will buy the deck because they want to build Boros. If the deck is bad, the stores won’t mark it up above MSRP, making it attractive to buy for people. Then they will jam other good stuff in. More dragons, equipment, and auras to make it more profitable to attack with Kalmne. They may even build with Gisela as the Commander, and that will sell all kinds of singles.

Foil Sunforger is returning to reality after Tiny Leaders proved that it wasn’t a real format played by anyone. I’m not going to waste my word count saying, “I told you so,” but you all know I absolutely did that. Sunforger on a Kalemne is pretty brutal, and having a Gisela out when you hit them with a Fiery Confluence could be fun. Tutoring for a 12-damage spell is very EDH. The reprinting in Modern Masters 2015 hurt the foil and non-foil prices of Sunforger, but I still think there is upside. The card is too good with Kalemne and the rest of the precon.

The only other opportunity I really see is that I think Blade of Selves is way, way too cheap. Then again, I’ve misjudged EDH equipment as a good buy at $1 before.

I still don’t get why this hasn’t caught on.

Still, Blade of Selves is much, much better than Masterwork of Ingenuity and can make some ridiculous board states. I think $1 is a pretty low-risk buy-in point, and if Blade of Selves is still $1 next week, I might look into investing $50 or so.

I don’t see a ton of opportunity here. This deck mostly just smashed $10 cards into $5 cards and they will take a long time to recover from it and that’s too bad.

Look, we’ve come to the one I want to write about.

“Swell the Host” AKA Ezuri, Claw of Progress

Relevant new cards – Ezuri, Claw of Progress ($4), Skullwinder ($2)

Relevant reprints – Eternal Witness ($6), Forgotten Ancient ($4), Solemn Simulacrum ($4), Bane of Progress ($2), High Market ($4)

Relevant exclusions – Voidslime ($7), Doubling Season ($25)

This deck won’t have a ton of value after the reprints tank, and the new cards seem to be underrated price-wise. I think this deck is going to be purchased for utility and that could create some scarcity and give Ezuri a little upside. I don’t know if anyone wants to build snake tribal, but building around Ezuri seems nutty. The problem is that most of the cards that work in the deck are cheap already. Hydras could see the biggest boost, and I am all-in on cards that double counters.

Contagion Engine survived a reprinting and now that everyone is no longer holding their breath, we’ll either see the non-foil go up or the foil come down or both. Contagion Engine is a card I identified as being great with Simic a long time ago, and it’s still true.

This deck is the best to build around and with a new, mono-green Master Biomancer called Bloodspore Thrinax printed in the Golgari deck, we could see people play with both of those cards. After you get some experience counters on Ezuri, you can dump counters on Biomancer and Thrinax, and all of a sudden your Coiling Oracles and Mystic Snakes come into play as 12/12 creatures. So what if you can’t get more experience counters? Why not proliferate, plebe? Do I have to tell you how to do everything?

This could easily hit $5 as a result of this new deck if it’s as popular as Twitter seems to think it will be.

I called Orochi Hatchery as my Brainstorm Brewery pick of the week if memory serves. I got blown out by the reprint. I sure hope I said “foil,” but I have a feeling I didn’t. Still, the card will get upside, especially the foil, as the reprint introduces new people to the card and gives them a snake tribal commander that isn’t mono-green for once. I feel like this deck will have the biggest effect on the prices of cards that aren’t in the deck, and I made suggestions about that here in this article and also in this older piece, so check those out for targets.

That’s all I have for you this week. Next week I will brew a bit with the actual cards we got and talk about cards likely to be directly affected rather than speculating on what will be in the decks. This should be fun. We’ll be looking at a ton of decklists, so get ready for that. It will be fun, I promise. Would I lie to you?

Danny Brown, ProTrader

PROTRADER: A Reminder Not to Forget about Casual Favorites

November 10, 2015 Danny Brown 9 Comments

What do these cards have in common?

You probably cheated and read the article title, so you already have an idea, but I’m going to stubbornly pretend like you’re struggling here so I can post more card images.

Surely you must what I’m getting at now? (Yes.) No? (Yes.) Here’s a few more hints:

“Ah-ha!” I’m imagining you saying. “I’ve got it now!”

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: Economic Analysis on Zendikar Fetches

November 9, 2015 Sigmund Ausfresser 14 Comments

Which would you rather have? A 50% chance of winning $10 or a 100% chance of winning $5?

This kind of question can mean very different things depending on who you ask. Pure economists would say that the “expected value” of each option is identical. In the long run if you made the same choice over and over – no matter which choice it was – you’d net out with approximately $5 per iteration.

Naturally, things become convoluted when you introduce emotions and behavioral economists. They’ve done studies that reveal human tendencies to avoid risk and take the sure thing. On the other hand, there are also studies that indicate with small bets like five or ten dollars, people are more open to the risk than with gigantic bets like one hundred thousand dollars. I may be willing to risk $5 to win $10 more readily than I’d be willing to risk $50,000 to win $100,000.

But let’s put behavioral economics aside for a change, and focus on true expected value using pure economics. I believe I can apply this fundamental theory to an interesting situation in MTG Finance. Allow me to explain.

Real World Example

When trading stocks on Wall Street, the concept of expected outcomes is often used to evaluate a stock’s potential price. For example, analysts may evaluate the percent likelihood a small pharmaceutical company will have a successful phase three trial for their breakthrough drug, and then use that determination to estimate a stock price target. Through tireless research they determine a successful trial is 70% likely and would result in a $50 stock valuation while a 30% chance of failure would mean a $5 stock valuation. Doing the numbers, they’d therefore buy the stock if it’s below the expected value, 50*75% + 5*30% = $39, and sell if it exceeds this price.

Granted this is probably an oversimplification, but it illustrates the point. Recently I keep hearing that interest rates are pricing in a 70% chance of a federal reserve rate hike in December. To me, this means bonds are trading using a similar expected value calculation based on likelihoods.

As an investor, I believe the chance of a rate hike in December is even higher, and I’m buying certain stocks accordingly. Financial companies tend to do better when rates are rising, for example. (Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, you should do your own research before making an investment decisions.)

From RL Finance to MTG Finance

I believe this concept of expected value can be reapplied to a very special group of cards in the MTG Finance world. I’m talking about Zendikar Fetch Lands.

When Battle for Zendikar was announced, the enemy colored Fetch Lands faced tremendous headwinds from a price appreciation standpoint. While many other Modern cards were rallying, it seemed the original Zendikar fetches were stagnant…and for good reason. After seeing Shock Lands get hammered by a reprint in Return to Ravnica, many players applied a high percent likelihood the same would happen to Zendikar. Then once the set was spoiled and there were no Zendikar fetches, prices spiked.

I’ll use Scalding Tarn as a case study as it’s the most expensive fetch today.

For ease of calculations, let’s assume that at its peak, Scalding Tarn was priced to have 0% likelihood of any pending reprint. We can then assume that the “right” price at maximum Modern hype for Scalding Tarn assuming no reprint is roughly $125. Of course, the card moved off that crazy high when Modern hype relaxed some. When hype subsided, players began pricing in a reprint in some set. If we assumed Scalding Tarn would drop to $20 if it was reprinted, we can back calculate and determine that the market was pricing in a 60% chance of a reprint in the near future at this time.

Then in March 2015, Wizards announced Battle for Zendikar. At that time, the value dropped from $60 to $50. This drop in price was likely related to adjustments to reprint expectations. Perhaps the chance of a fetch reprint went from 60% to 70% at that time, explaining the $10 price drop.

Then when Battle for Zendikar was fully spoiled and it became clear Zendikar fetches were safe, prices shot up dramatically again. Scalding Tarn peaked at around $100, indicating the chance for a reprint in some upcoming set (such as the new Commander decks) dropped all the way back down to 20%. Of course that hype didn’t last, and before long Scalding Tarn dropped back down to where it is today, at about $80. As of today my calculations dictate that the market is pricing in a 43% chance of a Scalding Tarn reprint in the near future.

The Opportunity

Here’s the thing: I believe the likelihood of a Zendikar fetch land reprint is much less than 43%. We just received the full set list of the Commander 2015 products and to few people’s surprise, there were no fetches included. I’ll admit I was momentarily frightened because of the enemy-colored nature of the decks. But after listening to rationale on Brainstorm Brewery, my fears were allayed significantly.

Without reprint in Commander decks, I question when the next possible opportunity is to see Zendikar fetches. They won’t be in Oath of the Gatewatch. I don’t think they really fit in with Shadows over Innistrad – after all, the return to Innistrad will be excitement enough to sell this set. Wizards won’t need to reprint fetches to help sell it because the horror theme is so beloved by players already.

If I had to place my bets, I’d say we won’t see a reprint of Zendikar Fetch Lands until the block after Shadows over Innistrad or in Modern Masters 2017. That’s a long ways away. I believe the percent likelihood of a Zendikar Fetch Land reprint should be more in the 10-20% range. Using my basic spreadsheet, that yields a price range of $104-$115 for Scalding Tarn – a hefty premium to where it is today!

Based on all of this data, I pose this bold prediction for open consideration: by the time Modern season rolls around in early 2016, Scalding Tarn will return to its former “hyped” highs, roughly around $115. With a roughly $75 price tag today, that’s a 50% increase in value – quite the reasonable return on investment potential!

Naturally, the same exercise could be repeated on the other four enemy colored Fetch Lands. They would each have some expected value based on reprint likelihood, leading to a new price projection based on reduced likelihood. Therefore, I leave you with this thought: if you need Zendikar fetches for the upcoming Modern season, I recommend purchasing them as soon as feasible. We had a nice little pullback from the recent spike, but I believe the reprieve will be short lived.

If you’re looking for a place to invest some extra funds, I actually like Verdant Catacombs as an alternative to Scalding Tarn.

It’s not blue, but Green/Black combine very nicely in Abzan and Jund strategies. Catacombs is actually the second most played Zendikar fetch land, according to mtgstocks.com, and it’s the thirteenth most played card in all of Modern.

In terms of potential, Verdant Catacombs offers nice upside with a slightly more tolerable entry price compared with Scalding Tarn. Scalding Tarn will remain number one in the enemy fetches as long as Splinter Twin stays so powerful. But in terms of robustness, I like Catacombs for its potential growth.

Wrapping it Up

Much like interest rates, I believe the market is miscalculating the likelihood of a Zendikar Fetch Land reprint. In both cases I am investing my funds accordingly. In the stock market I am overweighting my portfolio in financial stocks, and not long ago I picked up the Scalding Tarns I needed for Legacy along with a set of Verdant Catacombs as an investment.

The more I think about it, the more I believe I should be stepping up my investment in Zendikar fetches. While my risk aversive personality precludes me from buying in deeply (there’s always that lingering risk of a reprint), I should probably put emotions aside and make the economically logical bet. Since I am so risk averse, Behavioral Economics probably dictates I’m more likely to avoid the gamble by buying more fetches. But you know what? I believe that’s the wrong choice. I believe I should listen to pure economics on this one and step up my position.

So that’s what I’m going to do. I’d recommend you consider my rationale and likelihood calculations and determine for yourself if it’s also the right move for you. After all, this is merely a thought exercise leading to a potential conclusion: by combining our thought processes, hopefully our collective reasoning can help benefit all of us speculators in making the right investments. So please do share your thoughts in the comments section and let’s make some money!

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

I think Expeditions may be bottoming. While the price chart on this site is still a little choppy, the chart at mtgstocks.com reflects the bottoming trend I’m seeing. And while only a few copies are sold out on Star City Games, I’m seeing some compelling buy lists for the rare cards. But I should express some caution here because we’re going to get more Expeditions in the next set, Oath of the Gatewatch. While unique versions won’t increase the supply on something like Scalding Tarn, I still fear that a general limitation to players’ budgets may hold down prices in the short-term. I’d enter this space carefully and with discipline if you want to mitigate risk.

Leyline of Anticipation recently hit an all-time high. Once near bulk, the enchantment now retails for $6.59 at Star City Games. There aren’t many in stock, and with only the single printing it’s easy to conclude that the older the card becomes, the more value it should gain. Only a reprint would bring downside.
While I hate buyouts of older cards, I feel obligated to alert everyone to the recent price movement in City in a Bottle. The Arabian Nights rare is nearly sold out all over the internet. Star City Games recently upped their price on the artifact to $69.99, meaning the price movement is likely going to stick. The fact that their sold out tells me the price jumps may not be over on this one, either. This is exactly why I emphasize that if you want any older cards for personal use or collections, think about prioritizing those sooner rather than later. But please don’t speculate on these by buying out the market – it’s unnecessary and leaves a terribly sour taste in the mouths of those who want copies to play with.

Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin

Commander 2015 – Legacy Initial Thoughts

November 9, 2015 Jared Yost 6 Comments

Now that all the Commander 2015 spoilers have been revealed, I can’t help but notice that this year’s set is feeling pretty underwhelming to me. In fact, all things considered I can’t think of a previous Commander product that had less desirables from a Constructed standpoint. The Confluences are the closest thing to Legacy playable – if they weren’t all four mana or greater in casting cost.

I mean, think about it – even the red Confluence (Fiery Confluence) would be INCREDIBLE in Legacy if it cost just one mana less at three mana, even if that cost were 1RR. For its effect and limited amount of formats it sees play in I don’t think it would have been much to ask. However at four mana it might not be able to get there. Out of all the Confluences, I think it has the highest chance of seeing Legacy play but the jury is still out on the Confluences until results roll in.

Other than the Confluences, I’m not seeing anything pop out to me immediately as Legacy format staples like we have in the past releases (Containment Priest, True-Name Nemesis, Flusterstorm). These cards were all built with Legacy in mind, and everyone knew it even as the cards were being spoiled. I’m sure something from this set will make its way into Legacy or Vintage, so let’s take a look and see if we can make the case for any other cards in the set. First though, I want to finish my thoughts on Fiery Confluence.

Fiery Confluence

If any card makes the cut in Legacy, I think it is going to be this one since it is the cheapest. It is extremely versatile in the format and will shine best in Burn decks alongside of Eidolon of the Great Revel, though maybe out the sideboard more than the main deck since this card has more options for handling a wider range of decks. I’ve briefly mentioned some of my other thoughts on this card (and all the Confluences in general) above so let’s move along to my next pick on power level in Constructed from this set.

Karlov of the Ghost Council

This card feels like it is going to get out of hand very fast in the right deck. Unfortunately, Legacy ‘life gain’ isn’t really thing – yet. I wonder if it might slot into something like Deadguy Ale and totally transform the deck around the incredible ability.

Not only does the card get bigger, but you can eventually use those +1/+1 counters later in the game to get rid of any creature on the battlefield! All for two mana. Definitely feels like Legacy to me.

The downside to Karlov is his Legendary status, so that limits the amount of copies you could see in a deck. Still though, Karlov interacts with cards that randomly gain you life like Umezawa’s Jitte and might slot into Death and Taxes in the right metagame. I really think you need a deck built around him to make full use of his ability. Only the future will tell!

Scourge of Nel Toth

This card seems like it takes too much work to get online, but you never know. Dredge might be able to take advantage of a card like this in the right situation. It reminds me of a cross between Tombstalker and Delraich, though better in both cases. Not only is this card a 6/6 flyer, but you only need to sacrifice two creatures rather than three black creatures.

It does take some work to get online, so Legacy might not appreciate this card immediately. We may not see it in the format, but if more support in the future is printed we could very well see this in a deck at some point.

Centaur Vincrasher

Yes, I realize that this card isn’t Dark Depths however I still feel like it could fit into Life from the Loam strategies quite well in Legacy. Lands might even be able to make use of this card, maybe out of the sideboard if the opponent still expects the Dark Depths strategy to take over the game.

Actually, now that I think about it this card could also probably fit into other green Legacy decks as well – the centaur’s recursion triggers when any land is put into any graveyard, and fetchlands are so rampant in Legacy that it might be worth it for slower green decks to play. This guy quickly becomes huge while also having built-in recursion, which isn’t something we see very often.

I’m sure people will experiment with this card, and I really hope this breaks into Legacy because Loam decks should be able to capitalize on the card’s great recursion, along with other decks that seek to create grindy matchups where there is a ton of removal.

Mizzix’s Mastery

This card blows Past in Flames out of the water! Being able to straight-up cast all the instants and sorceries in your graveyard rather than give them flashback is so, so much more powerful. The best part is that you can also cast it for the regular cost if you need to recast an instant/sorcery in a pinch.

I definitely think that Storm now has a new tool to play around with, and I believe it will replace the single Past in Flames copy in the deck since it is so much easier to re-cast your whole graveyard once you overload this pseudo-Yawgmoth’s Will.

An Aside – Legacy’s Future

With SCG restructuring their tournament series, in both rebranding the series and cutting back on Legacy events, it is starting to feel like more and more like Legacy is slowly going away.

Not only are the events being cut back, but we also constantly have to worry about counterfeits entering the community. I feel like we’re going to see more announcements like the one that happened this weekend at GP: Seattle as the counterfeits continue to enter the market and community at large. How many people do you think were playing with counterfeits and didn’t get caught? How many people do you think weren’t even intentionally playing with counterfeits and went unnoticed, and are even unaware of it themselves until someone with a discerning eye gives them the unfortunate news? It’s definitely a wake-up that yes, your older, reserved list cards are being created as knock-offs for fractions of the price. With such easy access to these proxies and the improvement of the creation process, I feel like more and more players are going to start to become attracted to playing with proxies as the price of the reserved list staples increases.

I think this is why Star City Games is cutting back on Legacy, as players will have less incentive to purchase these proxies if they don’t need them for a tournament setting. It sucks to think about but I think it makes the most sense. Even if it decreases the market prices of cards like dual lands, the rise of Modern as the eternal format of choice (which guarantees reprints) and the continuation and improvement of Chinese (and other) proxies means that less Legacy support makes sense in order to prevent the mass purchases of these cards for tournament play.

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out in the future, but problems always have creative solutions. I’m sure if Legacy is demanded by enough players then exceptions will be made, one way or another, to keep the format alive. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

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