Exile for Value

By: Cliff Daigle

So the spoilers are rolling in this week and there’s a lot of excitement. I personally can’t wait to trigger the new Kiora’s ultimate, which Aaron Forsythe described on Twitter as ‘Octo-Fight’ and that is the best name for anything ever!

What I’m most intrigued by, though, is how the Eldrazi have the ingest mechanic and then have processor effects that make use of the exiled cards. So far, Oblivion Sower is the only one that can provide mega-value, since it can get back lots of lands at once.

This got me thinking, though. Since the Eldrazi want to see exiled cards and not just ones exiled with ingest, I want to look for the casual cards that can exile things and might see a spike if people start adding lots of Eldrazi to their Commander decks and the like.

Put another way: Two years ago, Nekusar, the Mindrazer decks became all the rage and some cards saw significant gains. I want to get ahead of those spikes this time, only instead of drawing and discarding as the key abilities, exiling is now the keyword I’m looking for.

One caveat: We don’t have the full spoiler so it’s possible that some of these are reprinted. If that’s the case, I’m totally wrong on the value.

Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver – As a rotating Planeswalker, I like picking him up now at a pretty low cost. He hasn’t seen much eternal play, but the ability to exile from the library, and then use those cards, is pretty sweet. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was $10 by Christmas.

Deathrite Shaman – This is a card that is too good for Modern, so you can imagine I’m a big fan in casual formats. You want some graveyard interactions for the long games or to stop things from looping, and this gives you a bonus every time you do. People should be playing this already, and so I think gains are unlikely.

Gravestorm – Exactly the type of card I’m looking for. It’s a rare from an older set, it’s got a low buy-in, and the effect is awesome. You get the exiling you want or you get to draw a card. Winners all around! I think this has a great chance to go up in value.

Nezumi Graverobber – If you haven’t played this before, consider doing so soon. I know the card is visually difficult, being a flip card, but a creature that says “4B: Zombify a creature” is worth the effort and the reading. It’s from Champions of Kamigawa and a reprint in the original Commander set, so while it might double to $1.50 it’ll be tough to see much cash profit.

Angel of Finality – I think this is an easy card to add to any white deck and more people should play her. A bump is unlikely, though.

Bitter Ordeal – While I’d like to see this cast for less than infinity, it pretty much only gets cast after some endless loop. Processors and the like will not affect this value.

Bojuka Bog – This would be a great pick to go up in price if it hadn’t been in three of the four Commander sets.

Cemetery Reaper – Even the foils of this are low, and while the ability is useful and relevant, there’s too many copies to make an impact.

Circu, Dimir Lobotomist – I sort of like this one, though the new Eldrazi are all explicitly colorless. There’s a surprisingly small number of ways to just exile the top of their deck. I would expect this to climb a dollar or two in the near future.

Creakwood Ghoul – It’s a way to gain some life but you have to spend a lot of mana. It’s not terrible, and there is lifegain, but the financial impact will be low.

Crypt Incursion – A useful effect, but it’s only creatures. I keep that in mind when I think about amazing Oblivion Sower plays.

Grimoire Thief – This has a lot of potential, but attacking more than once or twice might require too much work to make it worthwhile. Still, it fits my criteria of being an older rare and has a surprisingly useful effect. Just think how many lands Oblivion Sower gets if you’ve tapped the Thief a couple of times.

Honor the Fallen – A mass-effect version of Crypt Incursion. Find which you like best.

Identity Crisis – I love this card but it’s such a late-game play that it might not be worth it. Still, at less than fifty cents, it would be a low-risk speculation.

Jund Charm – One of the modes is relevant for the processors, and the other two modes are just handy to have. This has appeared in Modern sideboards, and might be worth keeping some foils around on.

Karn Liberated – He does exactly what the Eldrazi need, but the mana cost and the financial cost are just too high for our purposes.

Knacksaw Clique – I play this in my Experiment Kraj Commander deck, and it’s a great combo. Eldrazi will appreciate the ability and again, it’s a low-cost rare with the potential to go up.

Merrow Bonegnawer – Costs no mana, can be done more than once a turn, might be everything you want it to be.

Moratorium Stone – Choosing which card to exile is a good ability to have in Commander games, but I doubt there will be a run on this card.

Morningtide – It’s half of Rest in Peace at the same speed.

Necrogenesis – If only there had been a single printing of this! Or even only one foil! It’s what we want but the value will never be there.

Night Soil – There was a chance but no.

Oona, Queen of the Fae – Now we are talking. This is what Eldrazi of all sorts will feast upon: Scalable exile, and you get a benefit for doing so. There’s a lot of copies out there, though, so there might be only a modest increase in value due to her three versions. None is less than two years old, though.

Ornate Kanzashi – It’s five mana, yes, but if exile effects take off this is one of the ones that had a lot of power. It’s close to ‘draw a card’ and it fits all of our criteria for this speculative line of thought, since it’s a rare from Betrayers of Kamigawa.

Perilous Vault – It’s about to rotate and that means the price is up for grabs. I doubt it’ll be much lower, and it’s a worthy thing to buy a playset of and then set aside for a while. This is highly reprintable, though, just as a warning.

Pharika, God of Affliction – Mostly, I hate that your opponent gets the snake tokens, but when an Eldrazi comes along that can return exiled creatures to play (it’ll happen!) then this will get a lot better.

Phyrexian Furnace – Again, it does what we need, and it comes down early.

Planar Void – This or Leyline of the Void accomplish the same task, though they aren’t good if drawn late.

Psychic Surgery – If you’ve ever wanted to annoy people in Commander, cast this on turn two when people are still searching and fetching and such. If you can exile for value, this gets significantly better.

Rakdos Charm – I love having this in Commander, because so often you meet people going infinite shenanigans. It’s a shame that Twin players are ready for instants.

Rats’ Feast – It’s one shot and hits one graveyard. Not ideal but might be passable, and it’s a bulk rare. Not much can be lost if you bought twenty at ten cents each.

Relic of Progenitus – Just like Phyrexian Furnace, though I’m not sure how many of this effect a single deck wants.

Rest in Peace – A card I went deep on in the block and it hasn’t paid off yet. Maybe the Eldrazi are the ones that I’ve been waiting for? This sees a little sideboard play in Modern and Legacy, though, so there’s a chance.

Samurai of the Pale Curtain – Just like Anafenza, the Foremost, this prevents creature loops but doesn’t affect other card types.

Scavenging Ooze – Heck yes. There’s a lot of copies out there and while it does see light play in the older formats, there’s enough of them so that a big jump in price is pretty unlikely. Maybe just the promo, if you’re into that.

Scrabbling Claws – Third artifact with this set of abilities, even if it’s a minor set it’s nice to have redundancy..

Stonecloaker – For 2W, you can exile a card at instant speed in response to something, and then be ready to do it again if you so desire. That seems decent, but few of us keep the mana up before the hijinks start. It’s also had three printings, so if you want to have a chance at returns, go for the foils at $5 each. At the least, they won’t go down.

Suffer the Past – This is more of a game-ender, but at least it’s an X spell with X effect.

Tormod’s Crypt – A perfect card for our purposes, except that it’s been printed way too many times.

Villainous Wealth – Whatever you didn’t cast (lands!) you can return to the graveyard. You ought to be playing this anyway.

Void Maw – It’ll only have an effect after you’ve played this six-drop and the C13 cards aren’t that hard to find. I like it for a very modest gain.

Withered Wretch – This is so utility you should have it in your Cube already. The downside is that it’s got several printings and even multiple foils to choose from. Picking them up won’t break your bank but you are going to have a hard time moving these in quantity, unless there’s a severe and unexpected surge.


 

PROTRADER: Battle for Zendikar – First Impressions

The Eldrazi have returned. So too have the allies. The world of Zendikar is still under assault, and the denizens have rallied to try and fend off their otherworldly invaders. It’s an epic struggle that will almost certainly end in drama, tragedy, and possibly heroics.

Also, we’ve got some cool cards.

It’s the latter I’ll talk about today. Battle for Zendikar has a lot of things going for it (and spoiler season isn’t even over!), and I want to touch on some of the major ones today.

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expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Post-Prerelease Panic

We’re back with more of a Finance 101-style topic this week, so don’t expect anything too revolutionary or mind-blowing. Just a lone 20-year old rambling about certain Magic: The Gathering cards that I believe will go up, down, or remain stagnant as bulk rares for the rest of their miserable existences. Well, I guess that’s not entirely true. I do kind of have a theme here. I want to wedge in a little bit of discussion about the best ways to out your prerelease bananas.

Tasigur the Golden Fang by Chris Rahn from artofmtg.
Tasigur the Golden Fang by Chris Rahn 

Bananas?

You know how bananas only last like three hours at a maximum before they turn black and gross and banana-bread material? That’s pretty much what 95 percent of the rares and mythics in Battle for Zendikar  are going to end up doing, too. You might look them up on your phone or tablet when you open them at your local prerelease and exclaim with pure joy: “Oh, golly me! My Undergrowth Champion is selling for a whole $10 American dollars on eBay! I ‘made’ money by adding up the value of all of the mythics, rares, and uncommons in my pool!”

undergrowthchampion

We all know what happens next. I’m very guilty of it myself. We go home, let that Champion sit in our binder for the next two FNMs, but nobody points it out as a trade target. Suddenly the card is only worth $3, and we buylist it for $1 because we’re sick of looking at it, and you know it will never see Constructed play. You only got like one slice of that delicious banana bread out of that deal, when you could have been fast enough to trade off that ripe banana for some apples or carrots. Those don’t go bad quickly, right? I don’t know. I’m not Gordon Ramsay over here.

That Zada, Hedron Grinder (which is one of the more stupid names that I’ve heard for a card in a while) is pre-selling for $2 now, but you and I both know that it’ll be a bulk rares in about two weeks. If you didn’t know that the legendary hedron grinder (ugh) will be a bulk rare, then consider it something you’ve learned from this article.

zadahedrongrinder

So how do you get rid of stuff like that? Ob Nixilis Reignited is preselling for $15 on eBay (which is one of the lowest prices we’ve seen for a planeswalker preorder in a long time), but you won’t be able to set him free on TCGplayer until the set’s official release date. Selling on eBay yourself is an option, but the fees are too high for my personal tastes, and the customer service is weighted heavily against you as a seller. There will also be a large number of people at your FNM who read articles like mine, telling them to stay away from  your precious Ob Nixilis like it’s the plague, until it’s a paltry $7. If you really want to move that demon buddy now, then I’ve got a couple of suggestions that you may want to pocket.

Like Dis If U Sell Evertim

download

Facebook is one of the best way to move new cards. Actually, I’m coming to a realization that I mention this in pretty much every damn article I write. And you know what? I haven’t been convinced that I’m wrong yet, so I’ll keep saying it. I wrote in detail here about selling a picked-through collection via Facebook, but I want to emphasize this here: most non-competitive players don’t go to your LGS. They’re not sitting across from you at FNM, or scanning through the spoilers every single day like we are. They don’t have eighteen different sources of price-tracking info coming into their brains, but most of them will have a Facebook page.

Most of those non-competitive-but-on-social-media players most will have liked a Magic: The Gathering page at some point in time of their social-media lives. If that page allows the buying, selling, and trading of cards, this is where you want to be. You want to ride just under the prices they’re seeing on eBay and TCGplayer, because these are the impulse buyers of Magic. They want their sweet new cards, and they want them as soon as possible. Timmy Incarnate behind his computer screen has been waiting to add that Desolation Twin to his Eldrazi deck for weeks now, and you’re going to help make it happen. How much is it going to cost Timmy? $2? That’s it? Bam. Easy. And it saved you from sullenly sliding that Twin into your bulk rare box a month from now. Everyone’s happy. Sell those $12 copies of Ob Nixilis, $13 Kioras, and ride that prerelease hype wave as far as you can surf, until those 8/8 octopuses turn all of your hard-pulled cards into gross little bulk rares.

Alternatively, you can test how fast your fingers can click and try your hand at PucaTrading those new treasures away. Trader be wary though: everyone is going to be looking at the same target here. If you thought Standard cards were difficult to move on PucaTrade as just an average Joe user, you’ll be disappointed to learn that cards straight out of the new set are on another level. Everyone wants to get that sweet, uncut value.

Traps in Battle for Zendikar

I mean, there aren’t any actual trap cards, like Archive Trap and whatnot, but I do believe there are a couple of other trap cards from Origins that I believe I’m in minority of rallying against. Everyone is up in arms about these two tricks of Nissa’s being near-guaranteed landfall spec targets, but I’m not seeing it.

SwordOfTheAnimistanimistsawakening

Both of these cards are hovering around the $3 point right now, and they’ve each crept up to that point relatively recently. I don’t think you want to pay four total mana to play and equip Sword of the Animist just to get a landfall trigger every turn, especially when your guy could just get bolted in response. If we’re equipping a creature and attacking with it, I want to win the game very soon after. I just don’t feel like Sword of the Animist has the power level to do that. Even if it does see play in a Standard list, how many do you play? Probably two at most—I can’t see you wanting three copies. You’ll draw too many at that point. So do you expect this to go to $6 or $7 in a set where there’s already a $20 non-mythic holding up a substantial portion of the set’s value? I’m just not buying it. Literally. I’m not buying this card, unless I get it at buylist prices.

As for Animist’s Awakening, I feel like it’s way too much of a gamble to be investing that much mana into crossing your fingers and hoping for more ramp. If you’re trying to abuse this with Omnath, you should be able to end the game off of two or three more landfall triggers, fueled by fetch lands and maybe a single ramp spell, not casting this for seven or eight mana and hoping that you have 50 power on board. While I play it (and absolutely love it) in my Child of Alara EDH deck, that’s a completely different environment, and I can’t see this being run as a four-of in any particular landfall deck. It sees $3 off of two things: hype for the new set and mechanic, and people like me who jam it in EDH. If you’re holding onto either of these cards at $3 and hoping they jump, my recommendation is to sell off now into that hype.

End Step

Did you know Hardened Scales is a $2 Magic card? I mean, I knew it was pretty good in EDH, but I didn’t think it would be more expensive than a Prophet of Kruphix. I’m pretty sure I have several copies of Scales in my bulk-rare boxes right now; or at least, I’m pretty sure I used to. Some smart reader out there probably realized that the card was worth more than I was selling it for, and pulled it out to make money off of me. Good for you, if you did that.

DragonWhisperer

Dragon Whisperer is the same price as Hardened Scales. Now, that can’t be right. I know my friend Travis has written about this card extensively, and put his money where his mouth is. I can’t say I blame him, and I’m tempted to dump a reasonable chunk of change to follow suit. There are a lot of abilities on this card, and it fits perfectly into the curve of the mono-red deck that we all know will exist post-rotation. Writing this paragraph and looking at this price graph is slowly convincing me, so you’ll probably see me in What We’re Buying and Selling This Week on Saturday with my pile of Whisperers that I bought for two freaking dollars each.

Anyway, that’s all I’ve got for this week. I got a little bit side-tracked, but that’s alright. I didn’t have too solid of a topic anyway. Let’s talk about Magic cards in the comments below. You’re probably more likely to get a quick response if you use Twitter or Facebook, though. Fair warning. Have a great weekend, everyone!

MTGFinance: What We’re Buying & Selling This Week (Sep9/15)

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when and why our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such running this weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought for personal use without hope of profit. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we we’ve been up to this week:

Buying Period: Sep 1st – 7th, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

  • 3x Monastery Mentor @ $13

SOLD

  • 28x See the Unwritten @ $7.50/per (Cost: $3/per)

Monastery Mentor is a Legacy and Vintage playable card with an absurd power level that hasn’t quite found it’s deck in Modern. Once it does, I fully expect the card to top $30 as a small set mythic that was supplanted by Dragons of Tarkir on shelves only 6 weeks after it debuted. I’ll be acquiring more copies under $16 accordingly.

See the Unwritten was already seeing play in versions of Green/Red dragons in Standard when it spiked off late summer Battle for Zendikar Eldrazi hype. I’ve been selling through a variety of channels, and the price has been sliding but I’m still coming out up over $10/set on average, with additional upside on my remaining 20+ copies if the card finds a deck in the new standard or an obvious search target appears.

Douglas Johnson (@roseofthorns)

BOUGHT (Pucatrade)

  • 15x Spawnsire of Ulamog via Pucatrade at 329 points each

SOLD

  • 3x Shaman of Forgotten Ways at $6/per

Douglas says:

“At only $3, I really like Spawnsire of Ulamog as a pickup. It has dodged being reprinted so far, it makes a lot of mana dorks, and the last activated ability is perfect for both Timmys and Johnnys to get excited about. The annihilator 1 is pretty irrelevant, but who cares? We’re casting every Eldrazi ever. Spawnsire gets a whole lot of new tools with this set, and I don’t think he needs to see competitive or EDH play to get up to $6 or $7 on casual demand alone. SCG is out of stock on NM copies at the moment, but has plenty of SP/MP. eBay is practically dried up of non-foil copies, and there are still quite a few on TCGplayer. Maybe this doesn’t pick up until casual players start cracking packs and building decks, but this is a card I’m very bullish on. You don’t see me pick out spec targets very often, but this is one of them.”

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY