Battle For Zendikar Spoilers – Duel Deck

August 17, 2015 Jason Alt 19 Comments

So this is a thing. We always knew this was going to be a thing, but it’s finally here and fully spoiled so let’s get into what matters here. We have some relevant reprints, some relevant spoilers and a whole lot of questions raised about the coming set. Let’s dig in!

One of the new cards in the duel deck seems like it will be a bulk rare. Historically, cards like this just don’t get there unless they do something else. Getting trample is an interesting twist, though, and this could impact Standard more than previous analogous cards like Eidolon of Countless Battles or Wayfaring Temple. What is relevant about this card is that it seems to indicate Eldrazi spawn will be making a return. This isn’t proof positive, but this does seem like a way to benefit from the tokens. There are Eldrazi spawn producers to pair with this creature in the duel deck, but will we see them in the set? It’s fun to speculate, but I don’t know how much money there is to be made in guessing correctly. Still, this card in Battle For Zendikar without Eldrazi spawn to support it would be strange.

We were already aware of Oblivion Sower and its implications. Cheating this into play with See the Unwritten isn’t that great, and I think if we don’t see Eldrazi spoiled that are worth cheating into play, there is downside to See the Unwritten. If they plummet, I hope they get very cheap, because I like See the Unwritten as a long-term grower due to EDH play. Cards that help you cast stuff sooner have more upside if the Eldrazi all function like this one. A lack of annihilator is also noteworthy. This seems marginally better than the Eldrazi printed at uncommon last time.

So much for the New World Order! Here we have a common with two keyword abilities and a trigger when it enters the battlefield (not when it’s cast, which makes us think Oblivion Sower could be unique or unusual in that ability). Devoid is an okay mechanic and if we’re able to have a whole set that lets us benefit from having a lot of colorless cards, it will be important but will still make the colors important. This will make the set easier to draft, for one. Ingest is less exciting—it’s a poor man’s annihilator and that’s the most charitable thing I can say about it. It takes 53 swings to ingest them out of the game and you only need to connect seven times to deal 21 damage. Could ingest get there? Maybe. But I’m not super excited.

[Edit—I realize I did a poor job of fleshing out exactly what I meant with the “ingest as a poor win condition” example. Obviously you’re not milling anyone out with ingest and how unexciting it is as a trigger compared with annihilator was the point. It’s likely that there will be cards that give you access to the cards you “ingest” but it’s hard to know how good that will be, yet. Sorry for the confusion.]

More devoid shenanigans! This is going to be interesting in Limited, and there is a remote but non-zero chance that we will want to hastify a big Eldrazi in a Constructed format. I like the casting cost to power and toughness ratio here, but that rarely tells the entire tale. We’re seeing a few of the Limited-relevant mechanics in this Duel Deck, but I don’t imagine we’re seeing anything that will impact Standard a ton yet. I am hopeful for cards in the same vein as Oblivion Sower, however.

That does it for new cards. How about reprints? This set is chock full of them and some of them are punishing.

Butcher of Malakir is a card that has upside based on its EDH potential, but with so many recent printings, I don’t hold out much hope for it getting pricey anytime soon. Can you blame Wizards? It’s a useful card.

Forked Bolt, on the other hand, had a lot of upside and it was probably pretty expensive when they decided to reprint it. The card has since cooled off but this printing can keep it from ever surging above $5 again.

The third printing of Primal Command spells a decline to a sub-$5 price point. Since its current high is almost certainly predicated on a spike due to its inclusion in a Woo brew, I imagine absent real demand, an increase in supply will shock this price into snapping back to a realistic one.

Instead of Battle For Zendikar, they should call this set “Fall of the Eldrazi,” because irrespective of what happens in the story, the prices of reprints are doomed. This used to be a reasonable Eldrazi but its usefulness in EDH and popularity among casuals made it rise precipitously. Not anymore…

This beauty is going to plunge, which seems sad. It never even really got a chance to go anywhere. Trading with a Restoration Angel is non-trivial, but compared to Celestial Colonnade and Creeping Tar Pit, this has always been a tier-two man land. Could this inclusion be an indicator that we’ll get enemy-color manlands in Battle for Zendikar? Hard to say, but I do know that this price will plummet and that’s too bad.

All in all, this is a pretty average duel deck. The reprint of Avenger of Zendikar almost doesn’t matter because it’s in a Commander precon already and it’s going to be very cheap soon. The value in this set is in Primal Command, It That Betrays, and Wildwood. I don’t expect these cards to maintain much value after this, but that’s what we have come to expect from Duel Deck reprintings.

What we can glean from this is that Eldrazi spawn could be coming back, colorless permanents with colored casting costs that trigger abilities on each other are coming, and Eldrazi can’t decide whether they want to trigger abilities when they enter the battlefield or when they’re cast. Either way, this should be an exciting set, fetch lands or no.

ProTrader, Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: Identifying Trends in Modern-Playable Dual Lands

August 17, 2015 Sigmund Ausfresser 23 Comments

Last week, I explored everything related to fetch lands. Based on Maro’s recent announcement stating there would be no fetch lands in Battle for Zendikar, the deeper dive was merited. Hopefully everyone has their strategies in place going forward. Personally, I’ve noticed Khans of Tarkir Polluted Delta continue to climb day in and day out while Onslaught copies barely move on eBay. The gap appears to be closing between the two printings.

But enough about fetches. I want to turn my attention to a broader trend I’ve been observing: namely, when a set’s respective dual lands spike. In light of the recent movement on Scars of Mirrodin fast lands, I want to see if any trends present themselves. If so, then we can reapply these trends to future lands as well.

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Accumulated Knowledge

The Fault in Our Cards, Part 2: Paper Frowns

August 14, 2015 Ross Lennon 6 Comments

Hello and welcome to another very special edition of Accumulated Knowledge. I was originally going to postpone this article another week, but the subject matter correlates pretty well to the recent outrage over the Community Cup (and I came up with a good title). If you haven’t read the first article in this series (although it didn’t start that way), you may want to go back and check it out. Also, if you aren’t familiar with the Zendikar Boom, or want a more detailed explanation of it, you can check out my first piece for MTGPrice. Both of the articles are free to read (and pretty good, in my opinion).

Skill Versus Card Availability

One of Mark Rosewater’s big recurring points about Magic is that it is not one game, but several, and they all happen to have the same rules. What he means when he says that is broader than just formats, it also has to do with skill—two novice players facing off are playing one kind of Magic, just as the finals of a Pro Tour can be a very different type of game entirely.

New players are often only thinking about their next turn, or at most what they themselves can do in the next few turns (likely that plan involves some giant green creature). At higher levels of play, the game becomes more focused on questions like: “What can my opponent do?” or “What is the critical turn in this matchup?” or “What spells or effects do I need to watch for and play around?” The same thing is true of sports: watch a football game in October on a Friday night, a Saturday night, and a Sunday night, and then tell me that you watched the same game being played—you see the same basic game rules, but totally different approaches and understanding.

Skill is the combination of talent and hard work, and in Magic, like everything else, skill is crucial to success. Players at higher skill levels are playing essentially different games, and the more skilled player is overwhelmingly favored to beat a less skilled opponent¹.

Unfortunately, Magic is not a game that you can play on skill alone. Card availability can, to varying degrees, hinder your ability to play and win at your preferred level of the game. The most innately talented Magic player on Earth will never make the Pro Tour if she shows up to every qualifying event with a “Learn to Play” preconstructed product, although there exists a (only slightly more probable) chance that a bad player with a very good deck can luck his way to a victory.

The Fetch Land Controversy

It is very possible to feel that you are being denied an opportunity to truly test and prove your skill if you do not have access to the full scope of Magic‘s arsenal. This, I believe, is the first reason why so many people were outraged over Mark Rosewater’s recent announcement that Battle for Zendikar would not feature the enemy-colored fetchlands: by not providing wider access to them, Wizards of the Coast is throttling the ability of many (mostly newer) players to compete at full efficiency.

BRIEF ASPIRATIONAL ASIDE: I want to quickly talk about the impact that the Pro Tour has on this way of thinking. The Pro Tour serves a few different purposes for Wizards of the Coast, but the primary one is advertising² new product (hence the push to make all events Standard-only last year). One of the other main reasons, though, is to give players something to aspire to—a way to set your sights on something larger, something that would validate your desire to play Magic (and get you to attend tournaments). When the Pro Tour started, this made a lot of sense: Magic was popular, but no where near the level it is today. The Pro Tour was a means of growing Magic, as well as standardizing and legitimizing tournaments at large (much of early “Organized Play” was not very organized).

It is possible that Magic would have survived this long without the Pro Tour, but I sincerely believe that it would not be thriving. Aspiring to make the Pro Tour is a great goal, but it is a very difficult one. Currently, your best bet is to either spike a Grand Prix (which is difficult to do at any skill level), or straight up win one tournament and then make top four or top eight of another one (which may be several hours away!). The reason it is so difficult to do so is precisely because so many people have been trying to make the Pro Tour, and WOTC wants to make sure that attendance is below a certain threshold. Just as most players recognize the growth and development of their skills, so too should you reassess your aspirations.

I personally have changed my approach to tournament prioritization (favoring payout over thinking, “Will this get me to the Pro Tour eventually?”), and it has been a positive change in my approach to Magic. I still take the game seriously, I still play it often, but my personal aspirations are largely shorter term. We’ll get back to the article now, but I would consider other players to take the same introspective inventory of their own goals.

The enemy fetch lands are under-printed by current standards. The demand for them, however, is driven primarily by Modern and Legacy play (we are just going to roll Vintage into Legacy here, even though the two are wildly different).

Legacy has its supporters and detractors (I consider myself a supporter), but if you were to buy a deck in full today, it is likely going to cost you much more than a Standard deck, and there are many fewer opportunities to play with it competitively. Not owning a Legacy deck restricts Pro Tour aspirations only to the degree that there are three fewer Grands Prix that you can play in a given calendar year, and likely only one in the continent that you live in. The reason why I often suggest to people to ease into Legacy slowly is because so many of the tournaments are going to be at your local store, for very modest prizes. Don’t rush out and buy Esper Deathblade if you can only use it in a couple of SCG Opens a year, where you would need to win a few of them in order to break even.

Modern, whether you choose to accept it or not, is in a similar boat. Even though the format has a grassroots appeal, and has been wrongfully touted as a more budget-conscious alternative to eternal formats, it is still expensive to play with fewer opportunities to achieve at the highest levels (although we are guaranteed a PPTQ season and a PTQ for the time being). Modern’s biggest problem is that it is currently in what I call its “Wild West phase.” Modern, unlike its predecessor Extended, begins at a fixed point in time, Eighth Edition. The player base has more than doubled³ since the release of that set, and design philosophy has evolved significantly (especially with regards to core sets).

In practical terms, this means that there were enough Serum Visions printed for about six million players, even though there are anywhere from twelve to sixteen million currently active players (these numbers are raw, largely because Wizards stays tight-lipped on this type of information). The good news for Modern is that Wizards has stated that it will be reprinting aggressively to help alleviate that imbalance. However, it will happen on WOTC’s own internal time-table. The number-one job of Magic‘s design and development staff is to continue making new and exciting sets and experiences for players, not reprinting old sets (some of which didn’t sell very well anyways).

Things like Modern Masters, promotional cards, and supplemental products are great ways to get new copies of cards out to players, but the best way is through Standard-legal sets (which have much larger and longer printings compared to those other methods). In order for old cards to make it into Standard, though, they need to fit the current design (and more importantly development) philosophies of Magic, while also feeling like they contribute to the set as a whole and don’t waste valuable space (think Daybreak Coronet in MM2 Limited).

It’s possible that the enemy fetch lands would fit well into Battle for Zendikar‘s design, but it’s also possible that they would force development changes and throttle the other elements of the set (I don’t think we will see “Landfall: draw a card” if development knows that Misty Rainforest would be in Standard the entire time). I think that in five years, card availability specifically for Modern will be improved, and in ten years, it will be even better. Sadly, the long-term plan is not also the best short-term plan, but it is refreshing that Wizards is thinking more toward the former than the latter.

BRIEF MULTICOLOR ASIDE: Return to Ravnica having shock lands is more of a coincidence than a precedent. While that cycle has only appeared in Ravnican sets, the lands were named so as to be non-exclusive to any plane (Rosewater even said so when Temple Garden was first printed), and the truth is that that plane needs ten multicolor lands more than Zendikar needs fetchlands (Evolving Wilds at common would be just as frequent an enabler, not to mention the other areas of design space that landfall offers). Don’t assume that Overgrown Tomb and company will only ever be on Ravnica, and don’t assume that only Zendikar has Arid Mesas.

Because cards are not distributed by who is purest of heart and therefore most deserving of them, their means of determined value fall into the hands of the secondary market. In the case of Misty Rainforest and company, their value increased on the knowledge that the supply will not be increasing this fall, and very likely not any time in the immediate future⁴. Card prices are determined by a multitude of factors (including the one I just mentioned), but blame too often falls on “speculators,” not the larger stores that have a much bigger overall impact⁵.

In the instance of the enemy fetch lands, the amount of cards on the market dried up almost immediately in response to the announcement. Misty Rainforest went from $35 (I should know, I traded some away days earlier) to $85, even though buylist averages are at roughly $40. Star City Games has just over fifty English non-foil copies in stock (of various conditions) and a buylist price of only $35 for NM copies. The largest determining factor in a card’s value is what a store will pay for it, because that is your guaranteed, demonstrative floor. I suspect that enemy fetch lands will slowly drop in price as more are sold by players than are bought, and they will stabilize somewhere higher than they were before, but lower than they are now. It is unfortunate that this will restrict some players’ ability to compete (at least until a new printing happens), but Wizards excluded them in this instance for the better health of the set and the format, and sometimes that is going to happen (I’m sure they were tested at some point).

In Other News…

I’ve left a lot of this material open-ended because I want to leave enough spaces for (polite) conversation in the comments.

Before I wrap up, though, I want to talk very quickly about Hearthstone, especially in light of its recently announced monthly profits. Many Magic players are very vocally threatening to jump ship to the Blizzard product, but those statements are somewhat disingenuous. Just remember that you aren’t “investing” in Hearthstone as you might with Magic, because there is currently no means of a secondary market for the game (unless, I suppose, if you sell the account, as people have done with World of Warcraft). Also, as Hearthstone‘s audience grows, so will the difficulty of being above average at it, and with that the ability to “go pro” is diminished. It is a fun game, and I really enjoy it, but don’t assume that your purchases will appreciate the same way Magic ones often do.

Thanks for reading, and for my ProTrader regulars, look forward to that set review I’ve been promising next week.

Best,

Ross

1The mana system prevents this from being a guarantee, which is actually one of the best things Magic has going for it—unless it happens to you or me, in which case it is the worst thing ever.

2 Footnote to the aside (a first!): Yes, marketing is the reason why WOTC selected all of the participants for the Community Cup. It is 100 percent to do with appearances, marketability, and generating promotable material. It’s awkward that the actual community didn’t get to select anybody, but because this whole event happens on WOTC’s dime, the company was never going to select someone who couldn’t be a marketable face for the game. If your presence in the community is not something that could be considered family-friendly, then that was going to keep you out whether we had a vote or not.

3 If you want to know more about this, read those two articles that I mentioned at the top.

4 I won’t go deep into my thoughts about the future of the fetch lands, just because I wrote that article last week. Sorry for you new visiting readers, that one is currently behind the paywall.

5 If you think that SCG wasn’t buying up fetch lands when the announcement broke, then you are either naïve or new to Magic.

Corbin Hosler

Penny Stocks of Tarkir

August 13, 2015 Corbin Hosler 15 Comments

It’s been a minute since I’ve had a regular article! Thanks for sticking with me. I had to skip a week due to covering the Pro Tour in Vancouver, and last week I had an impromptu article on fetch lands take over my normal spot thanks to the breaking news (which I’m really proud of how the team here covered). Anyway, we’re back to normal this week, and this topic is one I’ve had in mind for a bit and I think is a fun (and profitable) one: penny stocks!

What Are Penny Stocks?

Basically, in the “real world” a penny stock is exactly that: a stock that costs you only pennies to buy but can provide big percentage gains as a result of having such a low buy-in. You make your money with volume, and they’re attractive options for casual investors.

Magic’s penny stocks are much the same. While we have to adjust the definition slightly—I’ve chosen to include cards up to $2—the theory holds, and every year we seemingly see something from this category of cards break out and subsequently shoot up in price. A couple years ago it was Desecration Demon and Nightveil Specter. We see something like this almost every year, and I don’t think this one will be an exception.

So let’s dig in.

Mantis Rider

Believe it or not, this little bug has fallen all the way to fifty cents. This thing was nearly $8 at one point!

And while some Jeskai builds have sat this guy on the bench in favor of more burn spells, that won’t necessarily be an option after rotation. Much of the deck’s core will stay in the format to keep it strong, but enough rotates to make room for Mantis Rider again—not to mention that versions of the deck still play this thing as a four-of and do well today.

At near-bulk status, this is a must-have. You’re out nothing if it misses, but the gains could be huge.

Savage Knuckleblade

Another card that has seen Standard success but is currently 50 cents. Temur has a lot of tools post-rotation, even if it’s a little out of the limelight now, and between this and the next card on this list, there’s a lot of reason to think the deck could be poised to find a place in the format. With playsets of this card available for a single dollar, I don’t know how you can pass this up right now, even if it means taking a flyer on a fringe deck.

Rattleclaw Mystic

I’ve written about this card before, but I’ll repeat it now: this is the best mana-ramp creature in Standard after Sylvan Caryatid leaves. It’s been slowing trending up but still clocks in under $2, and there’s not way this little guy won’t see continued Standard play next season. I love this as a pickup.

Surrak Dragonclaw/Sagu Mauler

Remember how I said Temur could be poised to break out? These are a few of the cards that make it possible. Sagu Mauler is actually bulk while Surrak is a dollar, but both of these are 6/6 creatures for five mana, which is conveniently easy to achieve a turn early thanks to Rattleclaw Mystic. Both of these could flame out into nothing, but both have great upside in the weeks following Rotation.

Utter End

Sure, there are lots of better options for removal available now, but that won’t be the case forever. Utter End is as flexible as you want, and while it is expensive in a gameplay sense at four mana, it’s super cheap in a fiscal sense at 75 cents. It’s possible the Game Day promos are a better play here, but the lowest risk certainly rests with the regular copies.

Shaman of the Great Hunt

This thing saw a little fringe play upon its release, but has since fallen off the map. As a mythic from a small set, there’s definitely solid upside here, though be aware you’re taking a super speculative route with this one. It’s a very strong curve-topper for aggressive decks, but the red decks of the format don’t lack that even after rotation, and the decks that can make use of the final ability may not need it, either. Still, the price upside on this is what makes it worth a look, even if it never quite gets there.

Outpost Siege

We already see this Siege get a ton of sideboard play, and there’s no reason to expect that won’t continue or that the card may even move to main decks after rotation. I don’t fully understand why this is under a dollar given all that, but it’s cheap enough to warrant a spot on this list. After all, sometimes the market is just slow to react: Dromoka’s Command is all over the place and yet is only $2. Sometimes if something seems wrong, it’s not because you’re missing something, it’s because it is wrong.

While we’re at it, if you want to talk bulk rare Sieges, Frontier Siege could be huge in ramping to eldrazi and is only 50 cents. Just saying.

Surrak, the Hunt Caller

Dragons of Tarkir offers us fewer options than the other sets in the block, both because it’s a set that wasn’t drafted a ton (a large set but never drafted alone), and because there are already a number of expensive cards floating over the arbitrary $2 mark. Still, there are a couple cards worth mentioning, and the smaller Surrak is one of them.

This saw a little play upon its release., the stats are solid (trades with Siege Rhino), and the ability is good and not that difficult to turn on. At 75 cents, it’s worth having at least a playset of these for yourself. Remember, ramping into eldrazi and having the ability to give them haste could very well be a thing we’re concerned about in three months.

Dragon Whisperer

Red decks still have a lot of gas post-rotation, but with a few spots opening up, we could see the Whisperer slip in. It’s both an acceptable two-drop and a way to sink some late-game mana into a powerful effect. I’m not a huge fan necessarily, but as a mythic, the upside is definitely there.

Icefall Regent

Another dragon that has seen competitive play in the past. It peaked over $4 and could possible find itself a home again post-rotation. At just over a dollar, it earns a spot on our list, even if it seems like a long-shot.

Wrapping Up

I realize I’ve thrown a lot of cards at you, and it’s a certainty that not all of these will hit either play-wise or financially. I realize that, but I view my job as a writer to give you the options and my thoughts on them and leave it to you to make your own decisions.

I’m sure there are cards on this list I like more than some of you do, and undoubtedly you have favorites that I’m not sold on. Regardless, these are the cards that most fit the profile of “super-inexpensive card to break out post-rotation,” and all of these offer a chance to get ahead of what you think the Standard metagame will look like in a few months.

Thanks for reading,