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PROTRADER: An Original Look at Pro Tour Origins

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By: Travis Allen

We’re diving into Pro Tour Origins this week, which should come as a surprise to few. There’s a lot of information to be gathered and understood, and combined with the fact that the early August Pro Tour is the oasis to Magic finance’s barren wasteland summers, it would be irresponsible of me to ignore the event. Some of you may already be over the PT.

“Sig wrote about it on Monday and Danny on Tuesday and Corbin on Thursday and everyone everywhere wrote about it and my wife doesn’t respect me because I’m a spineless manchild.” Yeah well A) you are, and B) even though multiple people will be covering the PT results, it’s all valuable information. I doubt all of us will have the same opinions, and even if we do, that information can serve to confirm your own suspicions about a card. Plus it’s only one week.

What makes this Pro Tour unique among the year’s events is that it is a window into a dead format. While this Standard is what we have until October, Magic activity is at a serious lull this time of year. You’ll see some SCG Opens and a handful of GPs, but for the most part, the Standard format of the moment is not especially relevant. It’s not like this PT sets the stage for the season to come and what decks will follow after. The entire format is going to rotate and all of the archetypes and success we just saw will be wiped clean in short order.

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Going Mad

Going Mad – Pro Tour Magic Origins

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By: Derek Madlem

So we had a Pro Tour this last weekend and we’re all wondering which cards were amazing and how much money we’re going to make off of them.

Our first instinct is to look at the top 8 decklists and place all of our bets there… but that might not be the best method here because of the Pro Tour’s tournament structure. The Pro Tour’s split format results in a number of scenarios where a slightly above average constructed deck makes the top 8 based on a player’s strong draft record or situations where decks that are extremely successful in constructed don’t make the top 8 because their pilot was terrible at drafting. Luckily for us, Wizards provides us with a list of all decks that finished with 8 wins or better.

The Winners

For this article we’re just going to focus on the Magic Origins cards because their prices are still in a state of flux

9-1
Red Green Devotion – 0 cards
Mono Red – 4x Abbot of Keral Keep, 4x Exquisite Firecraft, 2x Scab-Clan Berserker
Green White – 4x Hangarback Walker, 2x Evolutionary Leap, 2 Tragic Arrogance, 3x Nissa, Vastwood Seer
Mono Red – 4x Abbot of Keral Keep, 4x Exquisite Firecraft

8-1-1
Blue Black Dragon Control – 2x Languish, 3x Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy
Red Blue Ensoul Artifact – 4x Hangarback Walker, 4x Chief of the Foundry, 4x Whirler Rogue, 4x Thopter Spy Network
Red Blue Ensoul Artifact – 4x Hangarback Walker, 4x Chief of the Foundry, 4x Whirler Rogue, 3x Thopter Spy Network
Abzan Control – 2x Languish, 3x Nissa, Vastwood Seer
Abzan Control – 3x Languish
Jeskai Aggro – 4x Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, 2x Clash of Wills
Abzan Control – 2x Languish

8-2
Red Blue Ensoul Artifact – 4x Hangarback Walker, 4x Chief of the Foundry, 4x Thopter Engineer, 2x Pia and Kiran Nalaar, 1x Whirler Rogue, 3x Thopter Spy Network
Red Blue Ensoul Artifact – 4x Hangarback Walker, 4 Chief of the Foundry, 4x Whirler Rogue, 4x Thopter Spy Network
Mono Red – 4x Abbot of Keral Keep, 4x Exquisite Firecraft
Red Blue Ensoul Artifact – 4x Hangarback Walker, 4x Thopter Engineer, 3x Chief of the Foundry, 3x Thopter Spy Network, 2x Ghirapur Aether Grid, 1x Whirler Rogue
Mono Red Goblins – 4x Goblin Piledriver, 4x Subterranean Scout, 4x Goblin Glory Chaser
Mono Red – 4x Abbot of Keral Keep, 4x Exquisite Firecraft, 1x Fiery Impulse
Red Blue Ensoul Artifact – 4x Hangarback Walker, 4x Chief of the Foundry, 4x Thopter Engineer, 4x Whirler Rogue, 3x Thopter Spy Network, 1x Foundry of the Consuls
Jeskai Heroic – 0 cards
Red Blue Ensoul Artifact – 4x Hangarback Walker, 3x Chief of the Foundry, 4x Thopter Engineer, 1x Whirler Rogue, 3x Thopter Spy Network, 2x Ghirapur Aether Grid

Go ahead and take a moment to digest that list, notice anything missing? I’ll give you a hint:

Demonic Pact

There was a lot of hype about Demonic Pact this weekend, the price went as high as $15 Sunday night (and has since come crashing back down hard and fast). The problem with investing in Demonic Pact was that it looked neat on camera and deck techs but didn’t necessarily put up a strong performance in the event. While we don’t have access to the 7-3 and worse decklists to see where the best Demonic Pact deck finished, we can see it didn’t crack the top twenty decks.

The problem with Demonic Pact (and cards like it) is that it almost always requires you to have something else to go with it. We had similar issues with Abyssal Persecutor during it’s time in Standard… you had to kill your opponent AND kill your Persecutor to win. The chief difference here is that when you can’t get rid of Pact, you actively lose rather than just not winning. While Demonic Pact is clearly a powerful card, there will also be some percentage of games where you lose the game because of it.

Let’s say that you only lose to Demonic Pact 1 in 10 times you play it. That’s still a 10% swing on your results, which is often the difference between a winning record and a losing record. When you spread that out over the course of a long tournament, like a Grand Prix or SCG Open it’s going to likely cost you at least one round over the course of the weekend, and likely more. How many tournaments would you sign up for knowing that you HAD to start 0-1, because that’s essentially what you’re doing playing cards like Demonic Pact.

Demonic Pact is a card that can comfortably and reasonably hold around $5, but anything higher than that is probably not a realistic number long term. The only situation where this changes is if we see a widespread mechanic that involves sacrificing your own permanents to fuel more powerful spells, something that is unlikely within the current state of design.

AbbotAbbot of Keral Keep showed up in numbers across a number of mono red decks, including all three that eventually made the Top Eight. I’ll take a moment here to thank all of you that told me this card was garbage over and over again, that only makes calling this card a winner that much sweeter.

Exquisite Firecraft

But realistically, any conversation that includes Abbot also has to include Exquisite Firecraft. Both of these cards showed up in the same numbers in the same decks. I’m still not wild about Exquisite Firecraft as a long term hold as it does almost nothing outside of Standard but the pair of these cards are both hovering in the $9 range today and I’m fine with advising to sell either.

While I still believe that Abbot of Keral Keep has great potential in Modern, I’m also fine with taking the gains now as this card is likely to plateau for a while until we see further innovation outside of just mono red decks.

Thopter Spy

Thopter Spy Network feels like a “win more” card, but it’s likely going to be the crux of the mirror match between these Red Blue thopter decks going forward. It’s only a matter of time before green or white are slotted in for enchantment removal to combat opposing Ensoul Artifacts, Spy Networks, and to a lesser extent Ghirpur Aether Grids, especially considering we already have the land base in place to accommodate Jeskai and Temur builds of this archetype.

Spy Network seems like the less exciting of the two marquee rares in this deck as it’s relegated heavily to the sideboard and Hangarback  Walker can slot into any color deck easily as a colorless creature. If you’re going to play this card – hold onto it, if you’re not looking to play Thopters for the next couple months, then now is probably the time to cash out as only so many rares can hold the value of a set.

Hangarback

When I look at this card, I’m filled with disappointment in myself for missing it initially and then denying it’s quality when Jeff Hoogland put up solid results with it at the first SCG Open. Hangarback Walker is pure card advantage, it’s almost always going to take at least two cards to rid the world of this creature and it has the bonus of being colorless so it can slot into any colors.

Hangarback is already closing in on the $20 mark, which should pretty much be the ceiling on this card for it’s time in Standard as it’s hard for rares these days to pass that mark. Since the inception of Mythic rares, the only rare that I remember passing $20 is Snapcaster Mage, and this is no Snapcaster Mage. If you bought a big pile of these to cash in on, this is your time. If you’re looking for a Standard archetype to carry you through the next year+ I might look elsewhere as this deck is losing a lot in Ensoul Artifact, Shrapnel Blast, and Darksteel Citadel this October.

Jace

I’m still in shock at the success of any of these flip-walkers and if I had to place my bets, I would not have placed them on Jace. Hovering around $30, Jace’s price is probably a little over-hyped at the moment partly because he’s a fan favorite character and partly because of we saw some pretty high prices on the hot lists two weekends ago at GP Dallas. I don’t really think this price is real or sustainable, but I said the same thing at $20. Realistically there’s going to a slow unwinding on this price of this card as many vendors had to pay so high just to get these in stock the last couple weeks and they’re unlikely to be anxious to lose money on those cards, expect buylists to creep down as Jace only appeared in two out of the top twenty decks.

Nissa

Nissa appeared in the same number of decks as Jace, but with one less copy total. Nissa did not show up in any of the Green Red devotion decks but did make an appearance in Sperling’s Abzan Control deck and in Kibler’s Green/White deck. Nissa was another card that came out of the gate strong and went on a bit of a run but has since cooled. Sitting at $26, we’re already North of any kind of price this card can maintain. We’ll see how the format settles out over the next few weeks but I’m doubtful that Borderland Ranger is where we’re going to want to be in what appears to be a very aggressive format.

Languish

Traditional Control decks did not fare well at the PT this weekend. Languish showed up across a handful of decks that included Abzan and Dragon control decks. Languish showed up as a 4-of in zero of these decks with each of the decks running 2 or 3 split between the main deck and sideboard. These are not the numbers that create a $10 board wipe card. Take a look at any board wipe from the last seven or eight years and you’ll see the same thing, a peak at $7+ while supplies were low and then a significant decrease in price from there. I think the price of Languish is going to…well, languish. Ship these now if you’re not playing them, there isn’t any real upside from here.

Flash in the Pan

My overall suggestion for any Magic Origins cards that saw action this weekend is to get rid of them. The price on all of these cards is at or near enough to their peak that there’s just not much room to make money on these cards, but plenty of room to lose.

 

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Are you a Rick or are you a Morty?

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*burrrp* I’m going to preface this article with a belch, and the fact that I’ve just finished binge watching Rick and Morty.  If you have not watched Rick and Morty, I’m sorry to hear that.  You’re doing a great disservice to yourself and your Rick.  I assume if you’ve not watched the show, you’re probably still a Morty.  It’s okay though, I’m here to help you blossom into a beautiful (if you can call it that) Rick.

I’ll assume if you’re still reading that you haven’t stopped to binge watch Rick and Morty.  It’s a shame but I suppose I will need to briefly describe the dichotomy of their relationship.  Rick and Morty are a lot like Batman and Robin, except Batman is a time-traveling genius and Robin is a naive, gullible child.  Okay maybe that wasn’t the best description and it doesn’t quiet fit what I’m trying to explain here but bear with me.  Rick is a quick decisive thinker that analyzes all outcomes of a scenario before proceeding.  Morty is a whimsical character that often goes through life flying by the seat of his pants.  Whenever Morty decides that something that Rick is doing is immoral, unfun, or stupid, he challenges Rick based on some very loose ideas.  Rick is not the kind of guy who cares enough to prevent Morty from failing so many of these adventures end adversely for Morty.  In Magic finance you want to be a Rick.  You want to be able to call your picks early while having sound information to back up your claims.  If you are a Morty and wait for other smarter people to figure out you end up the greater fool.

If you read James Chillcott’s article this week, you may have noticed my pickups were pretty solid given the weekend’s events.  I was definitely a Rick last week and upped my Rick game this weekend.  I was reading Twitter (as I am known to do) on Sunday night and Mtgprice.com writer, Travis Allen, posted this pertaining to the stock of Demonic Pacts on TCG Player.  It was a card that I’d personally played with and it was powerful but it didn’t make the top 8.  I quickly browsed through remaining copies and there were only a handful of sellers with the card in stock.  I noticed ChannelFireball had listed theirs at a whopping $20 per copy.  My acquisition price was a mere 425 Puca Points (which are like not even real dollars, right?) so I was cautiously optimistic about listing my copies for $15.  It seems like a no-brainer to list the cards but I am also a player of the game.  If this card breaks out and becomes really popular in Standard there is a chance of it being worth big bucks and I will need it to play.  The reality of the situation is that in my testing it always felt like you had to jump through too many loops to make your deck able to play the card.  It will be fringe and it might be good for a weekend but it’s unlikely to be an all-star $40 mythic for it’s lifetime in Standard.  The opportunity cost to rebuy the cards later is unlikely to be more than the amount I would get for them now.

I listed my copies and took a non-proverbial poop.  I returned to my computer to continue chatting about the exciting Pro Tour results and I found a bite.  A greater fool had rushed to purchase their copies and snatched up my playset.  While you won’t always sell your cards in a single night, or poop (like in my case), but there you always have the ability to be in the right place at the right time.  It takes a real Rick to known when an opportunity has come along and pounce on it.

Ok Morty, enough talk about being a Rick.  We’ve got some card prices to briefly talk about.  Unfortunately, as I have mentioned before, articles are an extremely slow way to relay information.  If you waited for this to come out to get advice about pickups over the weekend then we’re far past that point.  Fortunately, a lot of people had been banging pots and pans and shouting from the rooftop about what cards to pickup before this weekend.  If you don’t have a twitter account you’re really doing yourself a disservice and probably costing yourself a lot of money.  Twitter, like most social media, is a very social platform that people talk about their interests on.  While you may think it’s a place for mostly pet pictures or food pictures there are some people who would rather talk MTG finance.  You can quickly browse the #mtgfinance hashtag but I find it extremely difficult to glean any real useful information from it.  All of the writers here at MTGPrice have a twitter account that post great up to the minute information.  But sometimes you have to deal with Jason Alt tweeting @Midnight hoping to become funnier somehow when they hopefully retweet him.  If you had been following me, however, you may have been able to be the smartest Morty around! In between the all the “I called it”s, I posted this innocuous tweet.  Now I’m not saying you should follow me for my insightful tweets, but I’m not saying you shouldn’t.

 

Now is the part where I drop a little Rick insight into you about what I think are great pickups this week.

fulminator

Modern Masters 2015 foils have begun to rise.  Much like non-foil Modern Masters 2015 cards, a rising tide will lift all boats.  I think the product for this has stopped being opened and with Modern purchases pretty much bottomed out there is no where for this card to go but up.  It is unlikely people will need less of them with the constant threat of Tron and Bloom rearing their ugly heads.

heath

Windswept Heath (more specifically the clash pack if you can still find them under $25) is a fickle beast.  It took a huge hit with it’s inclusion in the clash pack but this is not Bloodstained Mire.  Arguably one of the best fetchlands in Modern, it’s hard to see this ever command a sub $10 price tag ever again.  If you don’t own a set there isn’t really any incentive to wait any longer.

dragonlord atarkathunderbreak

My last pickups are a pair of red dragons!  Dragonlord Atarka is the clear standout among the crowd of Elder Dragons right now.  This card has the biggest upside if See the Unwritten becomes popular with some Eldrazi in Battle for Zendikar.  Thunderbreak Regent is a card that will become a lot more popular in red mirrors because of it’s huge size and punishing trigger.  It’s even a fringe Modern playable card.  I don’t expect to see any more dips in it’s price as we get closer to rotation when there become less good four drops.

Danny Brown, ProTrader

PROTRADER: Why the Pro Tour Results Don’t Matter As Much As You Think

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For our purposes as financiers, the results of this Pro Tour don’t matter that much. Granted, if you were holding a whole bunch of copies of Abbot of Keral Keep or Demonic Pact, they certainly matter in the short term, and as Sigmund illustrated yesterday, you should definitely be cashing in on these specs sooner rather than later.

But in the grand scheme of things, here’s the situation: half the cards in the format are going to rotate in less than two months. Basing your decisions as a financier on what happened last weekend is short-sighted at best, but we should absolutely take a look at the top Standard decks to see if anything will remain largely intact post-rotation.

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