Goodbye to Theros, Hello to Holds

September 21, 2015 Jared Yost 16 Comments

Over the weekend, the last Theros legal tournament was held at SCG: Milwaukee. Because of this, many players are going to be looking at getting rid of extraTheros cards that they will no longer need moving forward. Rotation is upon us, so it is time to look at what the future might hold for Theros cards and which ones will be worth holding over the long term.

Target number one, the best of the best from Theros block, is going to be Thoughtseize. I mean, take a look at this history just to get a picture of how in-demand this cards is even with tons of players looking to dump Theros in favor of Battle for Zendikar.

Rotation hasn’t even made a dent in this card. One would argue that Goblin Rabblemaster is another powerful card from the current Standard, and look at what rotation is doing to it.

Arguably one of the most powerful cards in Standard is getting kicked in the teeth because of rotation. What does this tell us about Thoughtseize moving forward, a card that we can expect to always see in Modern and Legacy?

We’re not going to see much cheaper copies of Thoughtseize around, at least not until the next Modern Masters set is revealed.
Players are holding this one, as we’ve been advising to them to do as #mtgfinanciers. The low point for Thoughtseize was $15, so if you bought in then you’re looking pretty good now. The next best time to get out will be during the hype of the next Modern season.
Foils are also going to be very in demand, since eternal players like to foil out the various parts of their deck. Surprisingly, the foil copies of Theros Thoughtseize are starting to reach a low point upon this rotation cycle. Check out the price history below:

We all have a pretty sweet chance to get in on a foil lull for the card.

All in all, Thoughtseize is looking pretty good as a spec moving forward, as we all know it will be. But what about other maybe non-obvious pickups? Let’s review some of the more talked about cards from the Theros block in reverse order, since Journey into Nyx was opened less and therefore we can predict that cards from this set will be more valuable in the future since fewer packs were cracked for drafting.

Journey into Nyx Current Prices (Non-Foil Top 20)

Eidolon of the Great Revel is the number one card from this set that you should be targeting if you play any Modern or Legacy. Burn was put back on the map due to the power of EotGR, so picking up copies for future value gains is a good move since players are looking for playsets that want to play them.

Keranos is looking to be the most valuable god from the sets, but I would pick up copies for Commander demand more than anything else. Yes, he does see play in Modern and sometimes Legacy, however I think his effect on these formats is marginal at best, and that most future demand for all the gods in general is going to come from the casual crowd. I would wait a bit to pick up all the gods, about three months from now when rotation prices are going to bottom out as more and more Standard players continue to dump cards like gods. All the gods from JIN are going to be great pickups at this point, as they are the rarest gods by numbers are JIN was the least opened of theTheros sets. A CAVEAT – The enemy colored Commander decks being released this fall could contain one copy of each of these gods. If that is the case, then the JIN gods are going to take a huge hit in value and be suppressed in price for quite some time. Keep this in mind while waiting to pickup gods. Foils are better targets for this reason, at least until we know if they’re in Commander 2015.

Dictate of Erebos is the final mention I’d like to make. This card is going to be casual gold and is the bottom dollar slow gainer that will make waves over time. It is already almost up to $2 retail with no Standard play and rotation about to happen. Foils will be especially good targets moving forward.

Born of the Gods Current Prices (Non-Foil Top 20)

Unfortunately there just isn’t anything appealing to me in BNG for pickups moving forward. Brimaz is a great card, it is very efficient for the mana cost, but right now white weenie strategies in Modern just aren’t that great. He will be an amazing Commander, and will even be great in Legacy Death and Taxes, but for Brimaz to carry the bulk of the set’s value is pretty sad and I don’t think he is going to be going over $10 for the foreseeable future.

Even Courser, a Standard powerhouse, is lackluster in eternal formats and is hardly worth picking up right now. Again, Commander applications and sometimes seeing the Courser in Modern/Legacy isn’t going to be enough to make it see significant gains anytime soon.

Since we’re not going to be getting enemy colored Commander decks in the near future, I would feel very comfortable going deep on some of the more popular gods from the set about three months from now. Even with Karametra, you can’t go wrong picking up copies at $2 or less since casuals love these types of big, splashy mythics.

Theros Current Prices (Non-Foil Top 20)

We’ve already discussed Thoughtseize at length, so let’s take a look at some of the cards in the set with the knowledge that they are going to be the most suppressed since Theros was open the most of the sets in the Theros block.

Ashiok is a sweet card, one that has applicability both because of Modern and Battle for Zendikar’s Eldrazi Ingest theme. I don’t think the card is going to get much cheaper than $6-$7 per copy, since UB Mill is a thing with casual kitchen table Magic. Picking up plenty of copies in anticipation of future demand is a fine move. On the other hand, I’m not so keen on Theros Elspeth due to the Duel Deck printing so I would advise to avoid these cards since there are tons more Elspeths than Ashioks out there.

Both foil and non-foil versions of Nykthos have started seeing upward movement upon rotation, and for good reason – this card is a Cabal Coffers for any color that is also Modern legal. I mean, the foil has already spiked and it hasn’t even left Standard yet! Pick up your copies now before the next season’s Modern deck is going to make non-foils spike as well.

Master of Waves has a great Modern advantage due to being featured in Merfolk, one the top decks of the format. Foils are great targets, but even nonfoils at $4 and less are going to look good a while from now.

Monocolored gods, like their BOG and JIN bretheren, are also going to be nice pickups for future gains. Some will gain more than others as we see how they fit into Commander moving forward, but foils of each should be nice collector’s items in the future. If you want foils to finish out Commander decks than rotation is going to be the best time to get deals on these cards.

Final Thoughts

So there you have my thoughts about Theros since rotation is upon us. Is there anything else you guys think I should be mentioning, or that I glossed over that has more applications than I think? What are you guys targeting for rotation, and how deep are you? Personally, I’m looking to start picking up foil Theros Thoughtseize since I think it will be one of the more solid places to park value, but maybe I’m overlooking a cheaper option. As always, let me know in the comments and thanks for reading.

Casual Fridays

Casual Hits in Battle for Zendikar

September 18, 2015 Cliff Daigle 7 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

It’s here! It’s here! The whole spoiler is likely released today but most of it is known and it’s time to examine what these cards will do for our beloved casual formats.

Some points to keep in mind:

#1: If these see a lot of Standard/Modern/Legacy play, they will cost more. A given piece of information at this point, but I don’t play those formats heavily enough to predict those prices. I do play lots of Commander and Cube and random casual decks, and that’s what today will focus on.

#2: Expeditions may cause a glut. It’s been discussed ad nauseum at this point but just so we are clear: If people and stores crack lots of product in the search for Expeditions cards (so ugly, yet so profitable!) then everything else will be more available.

#3: Casual eldrazi/colorless decks are much more popular than you think they are. This is a key factor in why older eldrazi like It that Betrays had a higher price than you would have thought. At least, before it was reprinted. The hand-in-hand mechanics of ingest and processors will encourage these types of decks and will have a small effect on prices.

Let’s get to the cards!

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar – Zendikar was printed right as Commander was becoming an acknowledged format, but it wasn’t designed with the same awareness that cards have these days. Allies, like werewolves, are crying out for legendary support, but even more than that, they are looking for a repeatable way to trigger rally in old cards or new ones. Gideon is that way. I can see Gideon keeping a price of no less than $15 while in Standard but the token allies and the potentially repeatable emblem will make sure it never goes less than $10, even after he rotates.

Kiora, Master of the Depths – Her plus ability is neat and such a win in my Experiment Kraj deck, but the glory is really had in her -2 ability. Being able to draw one card is handy but in a significant number of activations that will be a -2 to draw two cards. The octo-fight ultimate is just amazing too. I think she won’t crack $15 during her life in Standard though.

Ob Nixilis Reignited – I love the simplicity of this card. Draw, kill, and eventually win. The inevitability of the ultimate, especially in multiplayer games, is just phenomenal. This is likely one of the most played cards in the set in any casual or constructed format, and a card that is just fine to draw multiples of. I’d be surprised if it went much below $20.

Sire of Stagnation – The parallels with Consecrated Sphinx are deserved, even if it’s a touch more conditional. No one has to play a land, but if they do, you get all the benefit. I’m not sure if this is worth the effort in a Sultai deck, playing cards like Collective Voyage and such, but it sure intrigues me. Since other players can simply not play lands for a turn or two, and this has no protection at all, I don’t think it will have a huge price, likely staying under $5.

Dragonmaster Outcast – This will be the nail in the coffin. The nigh price was entirely due to the age of the card and the low supply. The drop has begun and it won’t stop until it’s at $3 or less.

Greenwarden of Murasa – I think that this is a fixed Eternal Witness, not just in mana cost, but in the exile ability. I played in drafts where someone would have two and just loop them endlessly, like Gravediggers or Myr Retrievers. Ugh. Travis mentioned on Twitter this week that the Greenwarden is the perfect card to pair with See the Unwritten, and I would enjoy that interaction every time I thought I could get away with it. I don’t see this as a replacement for the Witness, and not every deck needs two or eight pieces of recursion like this. I want this to keep a price but I believe it will be available for under $2 pretty quickly.

Quarantine Field – There’s enough of this effect that I don’t see this seeing huge play. Oblivion Ring offers permanent exile shenanigans if you can bounce it at instant speed, that’s the sort of effect that gets a Commander player going. More casual decks will like how this scales…sort of. Four mana for the first, six for two targets, and eight mana for three. That works in Limited, but I would hesitate in Commander, since it’s pretty easy to kill the enchantment and get it back. Likely a bulk mythic.

Felidar Sovereign – Another card doomed for the bulk bin after being a quite expensive card, this was a mythic and is now a rare. Alternate win conditions are lots of fun, but this will not hold any sort of value.

Drana, Liberator of Malakir – First and foremost: she grows herself with every hit. That’s useful, but because of the timing, she has the chance to grow your army before regular damage is dealt. It does require an all-in sort of attack, where if Drana is killed before she hits then you’re going to take it on the chin, but it’ll upgrade creatures trading into a win for you under most circumstances. She’s a good vampire but not amazing, and will be a bulk mythic.

Part the Waterveil – There is always going to be a small market for extra-turn cards, but the new ones are never going to be as good as the old ones. This will be bulk but will take an extra week or two to get there. It’s notable that you do get a turn and a creature in one spell, which is pretty unusual but not worth it at nine mana.

Akoum Firebird – This is an okay variation on phoenixes, but six mana to bring back a 3/3 flying haste probably isn’t what most aggressive decks want to do. This, sadly, is going to be another bulk mythic.

Undergrowth Champion – I think this has potential in Standard. Not sure if it’s good enough in serious ramp decks, because this has to be in play first. I don’t think I would play it in an Omnath deck, as I’d prefer things to play with all that mana. It will see some play but not enough at kitchen tables to keep it above $2-$3.

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger – Ulamog’s first incarnation could be stopped by chump blocks and tokens. Annihilator 4 is a lot of sacrificing but I’ve seen people hold up well. Exiling twenty cards per attack is rather outstanding, though, and a very nice alternate win condition. This can be cheated into play, unlike the original, which is probably an upgrade for players. I think Ulamog will stay between $15-20 for the foreseeable future.

Void Winnower – Let’s just concede to the ‘can’t even’ jokes and acknowledge that this is awesome. We’ve never had an effect like this, outside of some of the red cards like Chaos Moon. I think that foils on this will have a real premium, and if a companion card is printed that affects evens, that will be even more expensive.

Oblivion Sower – As the promo foil in the duel deck, this card has no chance to hold a high price. Its effect is amazing and worth planning on, since it can be a big burst of mana if everything lines up right. Still, it’s going to be at $2 or less.

Omnath, Locus of Rage – This probably looks great in foil, and as a Commander, it will do a lot of damage. I’m not sold that this is better as its own Commander or if it fits beautifully into a Horde of Notions deck in order to give wrath insurance. By itself, though, it’s going to be a bulk mythic.

Accumulated Knowledge, ProTrader

PROTRADER: September MTG Finance Grab Bag

September 18, 2015 Ross Lennon 2 Comments

This is the opening paragraph of today’s article; you are currently reading what is called an “attention-grabber.” The purpose of this introduction is to outline the remainder of the article with some variety of anecdote or short story. Of course, today is going to be a grab bag of a few topics not large enough to compose their own article, so there is really no glue to hold them all together. So we can either draw this platitude out, or we can get down to business.

That’s what I thought.

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Corbin Hosler

PROTRADER: The Golden Age of Modern

September 17, 2015 Corbin Hosler 5 Comments

It’s a bold statement, but it’s one I believe to be true. We are living in the Golden Age of Modern.

I made a video saying as much, and before I go deeper I figure I may as well post it, as well as a rough transcript for those who can’t watch right now (remember to subscribe if you want more of this content, and I’d love any feedback!)

Eight different decks made the top eight of Grand Prix Oklahoma City last weekend.

I want that to sink in. Magic is an incredible game full of tons of interesting options and interactions, and still we almost never have that many different decks make it to the top eight of a tournament. Not only that, but a deck that has never even made a top eight before won it! Lantern Control is one of Modern’s most unique decks, and the odds of Zac Elsik winning the Grand Prix with it are truly unbelievable.

There’s no doubt about it: we’re in the Golden Age of Modern. Patrick Chapin summed it up best when he told me on Saturday at the Grand Prix that there was a tiny difference between the best deck in Modern and the 20th-best. And he’s right. More than 40 different decks made it to day two of Grand Prix OKC, and there were some pretty awesome new ones among those. Not only did new builds of Scapeshift and Elves pop up, we had some old standbys like Storm and White-Black Tokens advance to the second day.

Of course, all of this merely scratches the surface. The list of new decks that appeared last weekend is even more impressive. Freaking Naya Allies, people. Naya Allies is good enough to make day two of a Grand Prix. Soul Sisters. Suicide Zoo. Faeries. Jund Scapeshift. Ad Nauseam. The list goes on and on, and I haven’t even touched on Merfolk, my favorite deck and the one that Paul Rietzl called the best in the tournament on this way to the top eight with the fish.

Simply put, there is no better format in Magic right now than Modern. With more 50 decks capable of finding success in the format, this is the format Wizards of the Coast envisioned when it was created. All the decisions – bannings and additions – since have served to create the deckbuilder’s paradise we have now. This is the Golden Age, and I’m enjoying the ride.

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MTGPrice Blog

Goodbye to Theros, Hello to Holds

Casual Hits in Battle for Zendikar

PROTRADER: September MTG Finance Grab Bag

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

PROTRADER: The Golden Age of Modern

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