PROTRADER: The Mythics of Khans of Tarkir

We’re just a couple months from Battle for Zendikar, and we’re about to see some major spikes coming on cards we’d all but forgotten about. This fact is indisputable—it’s which cards that are going to see an increase that can (and should) be argued.

Khans of Tarkir is an interesting spot with its prices. With a cycle of fetch lands in the set, the price of everything else is depressed. However, the number of drafts of Khans (and thus boxes opened) is about to sharply decrease. Since last fall, Khans singles have been priced roughly to balance the MSRP of a booster box—if singles go too high, vendors will just open boxes themselves; if singles go too low, nobody buys boxes. Once Battle for Zendikar hits, though, Khans singles will fall more in line with the reality of Standard demand (among other formats), and cards that we previously took for granted are going to get pricey.

Today, we’ll be taking a close look at the 15 mythics from Khans of Tarkir. These have remarkably depressed prices, as illustrated by the most expensive one being Sorin, Solemn Visitorwhich has a Fair Trade Price of only $7.85. There’s opportunity here. Let’s find it.

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Battle For Zendikar Spoilers – Duel Deck

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So this is a thing. We always knew this was going to be a thing, but it’s finally here and fully spoiled so let’s get into what matters here. We have some relevant reprints, some relevant spoilers and a whole lot of questions raised about the coming set. Let’s dig in!

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One of the new cards in the duel deck seems like it will be a bulk rare. Historically, cards like this just don’t get there unless they do something else. Getting trample is an interesting twist, though, and this could impact Standard more than previous analogous cards like Eidolon of Countless Battles or Wayfaring Temple. What is relevant about this card is that it seems to indicate Eldrazi spawn will be making a return. This isn’t proof positive, but this does seem like a way to benefit from the tokens. There are Eldrazi spawn producers to pair with this creature in the duel deck, but will we see them in the set? It’s fun to speculate, but I don’t know how much money there is to be made in guessing correctly. Still, this card in Battle For Zendikar without Eldrazi spawn to support it would be strange.

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We were already aware of Oblivion Sower and its implications. Cheating this into play with See the Unwritten isn’t that great, and I think if we don’t see Eldrazi spoiled that are worth cheating into play, there is downside to See the Unwritten. If they plummet, I hope they get very cheap, because I like See the Unwritten as a long-term grower due to EDH play. Cards that help you cast stuff sooner have more upside if the Eldrazi all function like this one. A lack of annihilator is also noteworthy. This seems marginally better than the Eldrazi printed at uncommon last time.

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So much for the New World Order! Here we have a common with two keyword abilities and a trigger when it enters the battlefield (not when it’s cast, which makes us think Oblivion Sower could be unique or unusual in that ability). Devoid is an okay mechanic and if we’re able to have a whole set that lets us benefit from having a lot of colorless cards, it will be important but will still make the colors important. This will make the set easier to draft, for one. Ingest is less exciting—it’s a poor man’s annihilator and that’s the most charitable thing I can say about it. It takes 53 swings to ingest them out of the game and you only need to connect seven times to deal 21 damage. Could ingest get there? Maybe. But I’m not super excited.

[Edit—I realize I did a poor job of fleshing out exactly what I meant with the “ingest as a poor win condition” example. Obviously you’re not milling anyone out with ingest and how unexciting it is as a trigger compared with annihilator was the point. It’s likely that there will be cards that give you access to the cards you “ingest” but it’s hard to know how good that will be, yet. Sorry for the confusion.]

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More devoid shenanigans! This is going to be interesting in Limited, and there is a remote but non-zero chance that we will want to hastify a big Eldrazi in a Constructed format. I like the casting cost to power and toughness ratio here, but that rarely tells the entire tale. We’re seeing a few of the Limited-relevant mechanics in this Duel Deck, but I don’t imagine we’re seeing anything that will impact Standard a ton yet. I am hopeful for cards in the same vein as Oblivion Sower, however.

That does it for new cards. How about reprints? This set is chock full of them and some of them are punishing.

Butcher of Malakir is a card that has upside based on its EDH potential, but with so many recent printings, I don’t hold out much hope for it getting pricey anytime soon. Can you blame Wizards? It’s a useful card.

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Forked Bolt, on the other hand, had a lot of upside and it was probably pretty expensive when they decided to reprint it. The card has since cooled off but this printing can keep it from ever surging above $5 again.

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The third printing of Primal Command spells a decline to a sub-$5 price point. Since its current high is almost certainly predicated on a spike due to its inclusion in a Woo brew, I imagine absent real demand, an increase in supply will shock this price into snapping back to a realistic one.

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Instead of Battle For Zendikar, they should call this set “Fall of the Eldrazi,” because irrespective of what happens in the story, the prices of reprints are doomed. This used to be a reasonable Eldrazi but its usefulness in EDH and popularity among casuals made it rise precipitously. Not anymore…

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This beauty is going to plunge, which seems sad. It never even really got a chance to go anywhere. Trading with a Restoration Angel is non-trivial, but compared to Celestial Colonnade and Creeping Tar Pit, this has always been a tier-two man land. Could this inclusion be an indicator that we’ll get enemy-color manlands in Battle for Zendikar? Hard to say, but I do know that this price will plummet and that’s too bad.

All in all, this is a pretty average duel deck. The reprint of Avenger of Zendikar almost doesn’t matter because it’s in a Commander precon already and it’s going to be very cheap soon. The value in this set is in Primal Command, It That Betrays, and Wildwood. I don’t expect these cards to maintain much value after this, but that’s what we have come to expect from Duel Deck reprintings.

What we can glean from this is that Eldrazi spawn could be coming back, colorless permanents with colored casting costs that trigger abilities on each other are coming, and Eldrazi can’t decide whether they want to trigger abilities when they enter the battlefield or when they’re cast.  Either way, this should be an exciting set, fetch lands or no.

PROTRADER: Identifying Trends in Modern-Playable Dual Lands

Last week, I explored everything related to fetch lands. Based on Maro’s recent announcement stating there would be no fetch lands in Battle for Zendikar, the deeper dive was merited. Hopefully everyone has their strategies in place going forward. Personally, I’ve noticed Khans of Tarkir Polluted Delta continue to climb day in and day out while Onslaught copies barely move on eBay. The gap appears to be closing between the two printings.

But enough about fetches. I want to turn my attention to a broader trend I’ve been observing: namely, when a set’s respective dual lands spike. In light of the recent movement on Scars of Mirrodin fast lands, I want to see if any trends present themselves. If so, then we can reapply these trends to future lands as well.

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Brainstorm Brewery Episode #158 – Still Trying to Make Fetches Happen

Here’s the episode!

 

Brainstorm Brewery #158- Still Trying to Make Fetches Happen

 

No Corbin this week, so we have that going for us. Still, the docket was light and a light docket isn’t always ideal. How does the gang cope? By talking about fetches.

 

 

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