Going Mad – It’s Time to Start Thinking About Rotation

June 24, 2015 Derek Madlem 29 Comments

By: Derek Madlem

“It’s probably a little late for that one Derek”
-some guy that hasn’t read this article yet.

Late? Or early? No, I think I’m proceeding right on track here. We’ve grown accustomed to the 24 month life cycle of Standard. When Theros hit store shelves, we knew that we could settle in for the long haul because this was going to be a part of Standard for TWO FULL YEARS. We also knew that one year into that two year term that Theros cards would likely hit their all-time high price as Return to Ravnica block rotated out and Khans of Tarkir rotated in.

Timing this price point was a time-honored secret for success for a long long time. We used to watch Block Constructed results from Magic Online and at the Pro Tour to help us determine which cards were going to be exceptionally powerful going forward. While these results helped us hone in on format superstars like the “Mythic” deck during the tail end of Shards of Alara Standard, most of these picks were painfully obvious like Stormbreath Dragon or Elspeth, Sun’s Champion.

We knew to pick up Elspeth’s when they bottomed out at $20 because we could easily unload them at a higher price once Khans of Tarkir was released (ended up being at $30). We also knew that the back side of that last year was a slow slide from the price peak to basically nothing.

It’s Different Now

Your Theros cards are worthless. Yes, basically all of them. Arguments can be made for cards like Sylvan Caryatid and Courser of Kruphix in Modern, but let’s not get too carried away because these cards certainly don’t see anything resembling “regular” play in Modern and there’s a metric ****ton of them in the wild right now.

But Theros is not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged. Something that nobody’s really mentioned yet is the new economics of rotation. As Theros and Magic 2015 rotate in September at the release of Battle for Zendikar, Khans is already going to be rotting in your binders. Why’s that?

Six months to live. Yeah, that’s a thing. You might not realize this, but Khans of Tarkir was born with a birth defect common to all sets going forward: a shortened life span. While many of it’s ancestors lived to the ripe old age of 24 months, Khans is only going to see 18 and Fate Reforged is going to fare even worse: 15 months.

So that means we need to rethink cycles and card prices and we also need to acknowledge that in relation to when Khans is rotating, we’re already past the traditional “peak” of one year before rotation.

Seasons Still Matter…

… but not as much as they used to. Some of you may not remember this, but PTQ season formats had a real impact on card prices. Back when Extended was a thing for three months a year, there was a massive sell-off at the end of every season because these cards were simply useless for 95% of the population for nearly an entire year… could be longer because we didn’t know when a format would come back around.

Right now we’re in the middle of a PPTQ season that’s featuring Modern. This means that outside of Grand Prix’s and the SCG Open Series that there is little reason to keep an arsenal of competitive Standard cards, and many of the prices already reflect that sentiment. Take a look at one-time all star Whisperwood Elemental, this card has nearly halfed in value since it’s peak in March ($15-$8).

Modern Masters Effect

I would be doing a disservice if I didn’t point out the obvious: there’s only so much money available in the Magic economy at any given time and Modern Masters 2015 is drawing a lot of that water right now, both directly and indirectly. There were a lot of pent up desire for Modern cards. Many players were waiting for this set to “make their move” into Modern and they’re coming on board in large numbers, which is one of the primary reasons so many card prices are going ape right now (pro tip: it’s not speculators).

With MM2015 on the horizon, many of Modern’s card prices “locked in” because of the uncertainty of what was going to be reprinted. Nobody wanted to go out and drop $200 on a Tarmogoyf if it was going to get reprinted in a couple months. If Tarmogoyf was confirmed early to not be in MM2015, we’d probably be looking at $250+ Gofys right now, but that impending reprint kept that price in limbo. You can repeat this example with just about any card that’s gone up in the last month. Pro tip: it wasn’t a spike, it was a correction.

The Point

Ahh, finally we get to the reason for all these words: some of your Khans block cards are already dead and should be abandoned ASAP. Like what?

Like Dig Through Time for example. This card is the unbending backbone of blue decks in Standard. Dig is amazingly powerful, which is why we’ve seen it banned in Modern and watched as it makes a really strong case for being banned in Legacy as well. What’s that mean for those Digs you’re sitting on?

BULK BOX

Dig Through Time is going to be a bulk rare in the very near future. There are roughly a billion-kajillion of these in existence and anyone that needs them for Legacy already has them. Sure there might be some casual demand for this card in Commander, but it’s power is diminished substantially in 100-card singleton formats.

Whisperwood, as mentioned above, has fallen from grace. This card is clearly awesome, but it just exists in the wrong space and time. There is virtually zero chance this card sees Modern play after rotation as it’s simply outclassed by cards like Thragtusk. Legacy? Not a snowball’s chance. There’s also just too short a window for this card to curve out. While there’s sure to be casual appeal for this card for years to come, it’s not going to be enough to sustain a price above $3-4… if that.

Dragons are sweet.
Planeswalkers are sweet.

So this should be worth a million dollars right? That’s what we thought when he first showed up. We quickly figured out that he’s not really good in Standard and his price reflects it. Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker is hovering around $5 solely because his card says “Planeswalker” on it. This is not going to show up in competitive decks past Standard so that demand is going to be tied to casual demand only. The good news is that he’s unlikely to go much lower without a Duel Deck appearance, but he’s almost certainly not going to go rise this fall.

Sorin, Solemn Visitor has a much better chance of mounting a slow and stable recovery as he’s replaced his previous self in all those B/W token decks in Modern. He’s still at a great risk of a Duel Deck reprint thanks to being a vampire and that whole tick craze still sputtering along. But how has Sorin fared in Standard lately? Yeah, exactly. Not exactly inspiration for a big investment. This is another card that’s not going to tank outside of a Duel Deck reprint, but it’s going to be a slow climb moving forward.

Anafenza, the Foremost is still a card that I feel suffers from “too much textbox syndrome”. People just forget that whole secondary clause about exiling creatures instead of allowing them to hit your opponent’s graveyard. I was very bullish on Anafenza as a Modern contender because she did a great job of hosing many of Birthing Pod’s shenanigans while still being a fairly insane addition to basically any Abzan deck that attacks with creatures. But as Fleecemane Lion leaves Standard in search of a new mane wig, Anafenza is going to be left behind with a short window and few allies to help her prove worthy of a higher price. Anafenza’s likely going to pull an impression of Thalia, Guardian of Thraben in Modern and possibly Legacy, only showing up in niche scenarios as an oversized hatebear. I’m not going to be surprised to see these as low as $2 by / after rotation.

In case you haven’t figured it out yet, Brutal Hordechief isn’t Hellrider. You can spend the rest of your life looking at the text box trying to figure out how this card never became a thing, but my bet’s on the fact that it’s a Hill Giant and nobody likes a 3/3 for four mana. You can lump Shaman of the Great Hunt in with Hordechief as a promising young athlete that failed to make it big in the NFL because they got drafted to the Lions or the Raiders. The lack of compelling teammates doomed both of these cards to mediocrity and there’s no chance for recovery. These are already on the cusp of bulk Mythic and I expect to them to retire as such, maybe they can open a car dealership or something.

Do you know what a $1 board wipe looks like? It looks just like a $6 board wipe except it’s rotated. There is not much hope for Crux of Fate after rotation because in a vacuum it’s pretty crappy compared to cards like Supreme Verdict or Damnation. These are already slipping as people figure out that playing mirror matches in the draw bracket all day is the very definition of Standard Hell, but you can still get out at $3 if you want to save a little of that value.

Everything Else

Obviously the fetchlands are pure gold. they’re going to retain the bulk of their value and continue to grow incrementally going forward. Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Monastery Mentor, Soulfire Grand Master, and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon are basically the only rares outside of the fetchlands that I don’t see cratering as they leave Standard. Even Siege Rhino is struggling to hold onto that $5 price tag and he was an absolute BOSS. If you have Standard cards that are worth more than $1 that you are not going to need in the next nine months, it’s time to ship them. There’s a very short window for recovery and most of these cards are unlikely to be lifted by it.

Except for maybe See the Unwritten – ELDRAZI!!!!

edit: I think people were missing the point of the article by a fair margin. I’m not saying that all of these cards are worthless now, I’m trying to point out that we have a new rotation starting with this set so we’re likely to see things behave differently this time around and you will not have as much time to divest from Khans block as you have had in the past. Couple that with the reality that most of this block has no life past Standard, you’re in for some Temple of Epiphany sized losses if you don’t plan ahead.

Corbin Hosler, Unlocked ProTrader

Announcing Unlocked ProTrader Articles

June 23, 2015 Corbin Hosler 2 Comments

Hello everyone, Corbin here!

You may be used to seeing my name when my column comes out on Thursdays, but I also handle of lot of editorial duties around here, and today that means I’m lucky enough to make an exciting announcement: the first batch of ProTrader-only content is now free for everyone to read!

We run both free and ProTrader-exclusive content here, and while I believe all of our content is of the highest quality, the writers on the ProTrader side tend to focus on more immediate calls for those looking to stay as far ahead of the market as possible.

But we don’t want to hide our content away behind a paywall forever, so all articles here will unlock after 45 days. WIth the launch of ProTrader-exclusive content last month, that means I have some great pieces to share with you today, many of which are still extremely relevant today.

Remember, if you like what you see here, I hope you’ll consider signing up for a ProTrader membership, which in addition to exclusive article content gives you access to lively forums, advanced statistical tools and more.

Enough preamble, onto the content!

Sigmund Ausfresser – Advanced economics of MTG finance, Part 1

Part 2

In a must-read two-part series, Sigmund Ausfresser details some of the advanced underlying economic conditions that make Magic’s secondary market just so vibrant.

Danny Brown – Planeswalker Finance

Planeswalkers are the face of Magic, and there are plenty of them in the game. Danny Brown breaks down exactly how they line up financially.

Travis Allen – Safety Deposit Boxes – Khans of Tarkir

A huge part of Magic finance is always looking ahead, and in this article Travis Allen identifies which desirable Khans of Tarkir cards have bottomed out.

Corbin Hosler – Why I Love Casual Magic, and Why You Should Too

Corbin Hosler – Casual Hits of 2015

Anyone who’s followed my own content knows I love investing in long-term casual cards, and I explained exactly why in this piece, with a follow-up piece chock-full of great casual speculation targets.

Guo Heng Chin – Spikecatcher

Guo knows how difficult it is to stay ahead of the market, and in this article he gives a few tips to make it easier on yourself.

Ross Lennon – The Coming Storm

At this point Modern Masters 2015 was just beginning to see spoilers, but Ross Lennon was already ahead of the game, prepping readers for the impact it would have.

Remember what I said about timely calls? This was published on May 1, and Ross included this tip:

At some point you have to expect Magus of the Moon to start climbing. That card was in one set, and that set wasFuture Sight, so it almost doesn’t even count. Plus, do you remember the 8-Moon decks? I sure do, they were sweet. I’m tempted to just buy a ton of magi right now for retail.

On May 1, Magus of the Moon was $9. Today, it’s $19.

Guo Heng Chin – The Meta Report

Part of an ongoing series, Guo looeds over the most recent results in the Standard metagame to keep readers updated and find the latest targets.

Danny Brown – Assessing the Risks of Speculating

It’s sometimes a dangerous game we play, and Danny does a great job in this piece detailing what those risks are and how to manage them.

Travis Allen – A first look at Modern Masters 2015

With the Modern Masters 2015 spoilers coming in quickly, Travis wrote a solid piece analyzing what the early movements looked like.

Ross Lennon – Silver and Cold

Part of an ongoing series, Ross Lennon looked back at Coldsnap to evaluate the set for any financial opportunity hidden in the Dark Depths of the set.

There you have it! A great set of articles, and just a small sampling of what you’ll have access to with a ProTrader membership. Thanks for taking the time to stick with us, and I hope you’ve enjoyed the unlocked content today!

– Corbin Hosler

Danny Brown, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Taking a Closer Look at Demand Sources

June 23, 2015 Danny Brown 1 Comment

Imagine if Wizards of the Coast told us exactly how many packs of Dragons of Tarkir had been sold so far. We know how the cards are distributed, so with an accurate pack count, we could determine precisely how many Dragonlord Atarkas there are in the wild and compare that with the numbers for Fate Reforged and the amount of Monastery Mentors in existence. Armed with that info, it would be really easy to pinpoint where cards were in short supply and buy accordingly.

Unfortunately, Wizards does not publicize that information, or at least not very often. We get hints about proportions (“X is the best-selling set of all time!”) every so often, but ultimately, we’re left to determine supply based on anecdotal data and broad assumptions.

Sure, it’s pretty easy to say there’s a lot more Innistrad out in the wild than Lorwyn, but by how much? We don’t really know, and can’t with the amount of information we have at our disposal. And things get murkier when we start comparing recent sets. How does Dragons of Tarkir compare with Journey into Nyx? Or Dragon’s Maze? We can broadly assume that Dragon’s Maze was unpopular so there’s probably far fewer Voice of Resurgences out there than there are Dragonlord Ojutais, but it’s all guesstimating—we are just not in a position to know what the actual card counts are on these cards, or any cards for that matter.

So while the pattern over the last decade or so has been one of extreme growth (and thus ever-increasing amounts of supply), we know the proportions between set printings in only the broadest terms. Again using Dragon’s Maze as an example: we know it was an unpopular set, but we don’t have the numbers as to just how badly it actually performed. If we did, we might find that Voice of Resurgence is greatly over- or underpriced when we consider the actual number of copies out there.

Way back in 2013, Anthony Capece, a former writer for BrainstormBrewery.com, did some very important work for the community in shining a light on some of these supply issues. Those articles, “Rare is the New Uncommon” and “Size Matters,” should be required reading for every single MTG financier, so if you haven’t read them before (or even if it’s just been a while), click those links. They’ll open in a new tab and everything, so you don’t even have to stop reading here.

Anthony did some great investigative work to come to rough estimates on supply of new sets compared to old ones, but we still don’t have the exact numbers. However, just like Magic is a game of imperfect information, so is MTG finance, and our job is to take action based on the information that we do have available.

Courser of Kruphix versus Gilded Lotus

Let’s compare two very different but similarly priced (at time of writing) cards: Courser of Kruphix and Gilded Lotus.

Courser derives most of its value from Standard play, though that value is tapering off fast from a high of over $20 to the current price of $6. The card has seen a little bit of Modern action, as well, but doesn’t make the MTG Goldfish list of the top 50 creatures in the format. To top it off, Courser isn’t exactly undesirable in the most popular casual formats, Commander and Cube.

Despite being good outside of Standard, most of Courser’s historic price comes from Standard demand, where it has been a complete staple and almost always a four-of. The price loss over the last several months is almost certainly attributable to the upcoming rotation, and we may still lose some more off the price by the time we lose Theros block from Standard.

Alternatively, we have Gilded Lotus, which saw no Standard play after it was last reprinted in M13. The card derives all of its sharply increasing value from casual play, as there’s a copy in most cubes and in most Commander decks, but nary a single competitive deck wants something like this (cue someone linking to a Vintage deck that just needs to Tinker out Gilded Lotus for some reason).

Delving Into Hypotheticals

I love data, but unfortunately, we just don’t have enough of it to determine exactly why these cards are virtually the same price despite such different demand profiles.

Hypothetically, let’s say the demand comes from the following:

Courser of Kruphix

35% of Standard players need four copies of this card for a Standard deck (reasoning: MTG Goldfish cites Courser of Kruphix as being a 3.8-of in 35.94 percent of Standard decks).
20% of Commander players need one copy for their decks (reasoning: this is good in any green deck, and theoretically, one-fifth of decks in Magic are of a particular color).
90% of cubes need one copy (reasoning: some cubes have special restrictions, but this is good enough to warrant an include in most lists).
5% of Modern players need or want to have available four copies for a Modern deck (reasoning: it’s hardly a staple in five-percent of decks, but some players need to have everything).
The Invisibles playing wild card.

Gilded Lotus

90% of Commander players need one copy for their decks (reasoning: some aggressive decks might not want this, but it’s a colorless fixer that ramps to giant fatties and can go in literally any deck).
90% of cubes need one copy (reasoning: some cubes have special restrictions, but this is good enough to warrant an include in most lists).
The Invisibles playing wild card.

Again, these are just numbers I pulled out of thin air—they’re here only for illustration’s sake.

If these numbers were accurate, do you think we could use them to determine the total number of active players in each format? I hope you’re saying no, because these numbers are not accounting for the mystery I discussed during the first part of this article: how many copies of each card is actually in existence.

We just can’t fill in enough of the variables to fully solve the equation. This is why no speculation target is ever 100-percent safe: we (the MTG community) do not have enough information to know for sure that there is or is not enough of one particular card to satisfy the demand from all players who might want one or more copies for whatever reason.

Using the Tools We Do Have

Still, I think the exercise of going through where a card’s demand is coming from can really help to streamline one’s thought process regarding a card one is considering buying. Several MTGPrice writers have (rightly) been harping on three major targets from Khans of Tarkir block, so let’s consider where the demand might come from for each of these moving forward.

Siege Rhino

I have not bought in to Siege Rhino, but the card is an extremely interesting case. Normally, a three-color card has very limited upside, as only a select few decks can play it, but we’ve seen Standard and Modern decks designed essentially because this card is powerful enough to warrant it.

Still, there’s pretty much a maximum of one deck in Standard and one deck in Modern that wants this card, and even if those comprise a huge part of each metagame, there’s not any cross-deck applicability to really keep Rhino’s price up.

Further adding to my concerns is that this isn’t going to be in hardly any Commander decks or cubes, given its limited upside in the 100-card battlecruiser format and the limited space for three-color cards in most custom drafting environments.

Just piling on to my concerns, it’s a rare from a large fall set, and if you read Anthony’s articles that I linked above, you’ll know why that’s bad.

In summary, when I started writing this section, I thought that Siege Rhino was a fine pickup (if not as good as others), but now that I’m finished, I don’t want to be buying into this at $4. Yes, it’s good enough to warrant decks designed around it, but the assumed supply is as high as cards get and its applicability is highly specific, despite its power level.

Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Tasigur, on the other hand, is awesome. Delve cards aren’t automatic four-ofs, but even if Tasigur only sees play as a three-of, he’s wanted in Legacy, Modern, Standard, Commander, and Cube, and has plenty of applicability in all kinds of decks from aggro to control.

Again, he suffers from being rare and not mythic, but in this case, we’re looking at a small set that didn’t sell for nearly as long as Siege Rhino’s Khans of Tarkir.

It’s easy to envision much more demand for Tasigur than for Siege Rhino, and it’s also fair to assume the supply is lower. Considering it’s already begun its ascent, the MTG finance community seems to agree.

See the Unwritten

See the Unwritten, on the other hand, has gone down since its initial surge in popularity in response to the announcement of Battle for Zendikar. It’s now just above $3, and it has a much different demand profile than Siege Rhino or Tasigur.

With See the Unwritten, we’re speculating not on current playability in Standard or eternal formats, but on future playability with the assumed Eldrazi coming in BFZ. Initially, this seems riskier than something like Siege Rhino, and maybe it is.

But I have bought in to See the Unwritten, unlike Siege Rhino. The reasons are three-fold:

I strongly believe there will be Eldrazi in BFZ.
The Standard Eldrazi deck might be good, but even if it’s not, this is a mythic and people will want to try out the deck.
The card has enough applicability in Commander that I expect it to grow slowly over time regardless, so in the worst case, it becomes a long-term spec instead of a short-term one.

If See the Unwritten was a rare, I wouldn’t give it a second glance at this price, but mythics can do crazy things, as there’s far fewer of them compared to their rare counterparts. When observing exactly who might be demanding See the Unwritten, it has the smallest group of any of the cards I’ve discussed in this article, but the lower supply due to its mythic-ness makes me much more willing to take a risk on it. Remember, a strategy doesn’t have to be good for a spec to pay out.

In a Perfect World

In a perfect world, we would know the exact number of Siege Rhinos, Tasigurs, and See the Unwrittens in existence, and we would also know exactly how many active players each format has.

Of course, if we lived in that world, then presumably the market would adjust itself so that every card was perfectly priced and there were no speculation opportunities for anybody. Come to think about it, maybe that’s not such a perfect world after all…

Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin

Magic Origins: A First Look

June 22, 2015 Jared Yost 8 Comments

Magic Origins spoilers have slowly been trickling out from the Mothership and beyond, so let’s take a look at some of the previews we’ve been given so far and what it could mean for Standard and other formats.

Planeswalkers

The planeswalkers of the set have been spoiled and it’s the first time we’ve seen walkers that start as legendary creatures and transform into planeswalkers when a condition is met for them to trigger their “spark”.

Kytheon / Gideon

Wow, this has got to be the most insane Savannah Lions variant the Magic community has received yet! So this is what a one mana planeswalker looks like (well, sort of). We’ve all wondered how Wizards would be able to print a planeswalker at one mana as a balanced card and I think we have our answer here.

Of course, the only downside to Kytheon is his legendary status. Only being able to have one Savannah Lions out on the field at a time is a bummer in white weenie decks but the great thing here is that he dies pretty easily, so the odds of you having one stuck in your hand for a long time are almost zero. A similar case study here is Isamaru, Hound of Konda. Even though it is also a legendary creature, in Kamigawa Standard he was still played as three to four copies per aggro deck even with the legendary drawback. This makes me think that the legendary status will matter but not as much as as legendary creatures that cost three or more mana. But wait, I haven’t even discussed the indestructibility! For three mana, having a way to ensure that Kytheon becomes Gideon is super important for such a fragile 2/1 body. You could also just sit on him if you need a blocker, making him indestructible and chumping non-tramplers all day. So basically, the card is nothing but upside as long as you don’t get another one or two of them stuck in your opening hand or within your opening draws.

The Gideon counterpart is also pretty awesome. Gideon Jura was certainly played in Rise of Eldrazi standard, and Kytheon offers us a Jura-mini just for attacking and beating face. Unfortunately, this Gideon doesn’t kill creatures (let’s be real, for one mana that would just be way too powerful to -2 to kill a creature) but it can boost its loyalty very quickly and mess with your opponent’s combat. Think of the +2 as an opposite Frenzied Goblin. Instead of being unable to block, the creature is forced to attack Gideon, removing it from attacking your face and thus “removing it from combat” and being able to block when your next combat phase comes along. The +1 also affects combat quite nicely, by having an attacker become indestructible or untapping an already tapped attacker and having an indestructible blocker for next turn.

All in all, Kytheon / Gideon is a very solid card and I expect it to see a ton of Standard play, especially in the fall when aggro decks will tend to gravitate towards the Top 8 of tournaments.

Jace

The text here is hard to make out on the right, so here is the Telepath Unbound text:

+1: Up to one target creature gets -2/-0 until your next turn.

-3: You may cast target instant or sorcery card from your graveyard this turn. If that card would be put into your graveyard this turn, exile it instead.

-9: You get an emblem with “Whenever you cast a spell, target opponent puts the top five cards of his or her library into his or her graveyard”.

Loyalty 5

Jace certainly feels like he has potential for Standard as well. Merfolk Looter has been well received in Standard environments throughout the years and a Looter with upside is very appealing. My current thinking is that he will slot into the Sidisi-Whip deck quite nicely, and will continue to support Sidisi, Brood Tyrant after Theros block rotates from Standard.

After filling up your graveyard, Jace can then create a mini Yawgmoth’s Will situation that gives one of your instant or sorcery cards flashback until end of turn. Even the ultimate ability is kind of cool, since it allows you to put a fairly fast clock on your opponent since all of your spells will also have Tome Scour spliced onto them.

All in all, this Jace doesn’t excite me in quite the way that Kytheon / Gideon did, but the control and Sidisi players among us will have a cool new toy to play with soon.

Liliana

I’m a huge fan of Liliana in eternal formats. I’m thinking that the new wave of Collected Company decks in Modern might try experimenting with her since they have so many ways of sacrificing creatures for value. Unfortunately, with the banning of Birthing Pod there are fewer ways to sacrifice your own creatures within the deck, but I think there are enough tools in a format like Modern to really push Liliana to the next level.

In terms of Standard, I’m not sure what type of sacrifice outlets we’re going to be getting in the future but currently the ones that exist are meh at best. She has weak stats for the mana cost and can be removed very easily before being able to be transformed into her ‘walker form. I think people will try to make her work in Standard decks but I’m not sure if the support exists to really get your mana’s worth.

Chandra

*Sigh*, why is Chandra always so bad? Red players never get a break. Remember Tibalt? Chandra isn’t that bad, but she is still pretty boring and lackluster compared to the other ‘walkers seen so far.

You have to do soo much work to transform her. However, one interesting trick is that you can attack with her to deal two damage, then cast a red spell during your second main phase to untap her and then tap her for the third damage in order to transform her into a ‘walker. So, sometimes you will only need one spell to transform her rather than two.

The planeswalker side is fine. +1 for two face damage is pretty nice, -2 for two creature damage is alright, and the ultimate ability if you get it off is certainly devastating. However, I’m just not sure that this Chandra has what it takes to see Standard play. She seems even more frail to me than Liliana, and I think that Liliana is going to have a hard time seeing Standard play currently. I think she would have been much better with Haste, however I didn’t do any of the play testing with the card to know if that would be too good or not.

Nissa

The text here is hard to make out on the right, so here is the Sage Animist text:

+1: Reveal the top card of your library. If it’s a land card, put it onto the battlefield. Otherwise, put it into your hand.

-2: Put a legendary 4/4 green Elemental creature token named Ashaya, the Awoken World onto the battlefield.

-7: Untap up to six target lands. They become 6/6 Elemental creatures. They’re still lands.

Loyalty 3

Creature Nissa is definitely underwhelming. A strictly worse Civic Wayfinder, Nissa doesn’t have much going for her ability-wise. Hey, at least she’s better than Chandra right!?

Seriously though, she has some pretty nice late game potential that makes up for underwhelming creature version. Casting her later in the game and activating the planeswalker transformation right away will be the most optimal play. Once Nissa becomes a planeswalker, it’s all upside from there. Her abilities are all very good. +1 to draw a card / drop a land, -2 to create a creature to protect herself (which can be activated right away), and then finally having a game ending -7 if the opportunity presents itself is a nice touch.

Keeping everything in mind, I do think Nissa will see Standard play since green midrange decks will be able to pretty consistently transform her since they ramp up to seven lands pretty quickly and her creature form is fine as a 2/2 blocker that gets you your next land drop.

Other Spoilers

Besides planeswalkers, we’ve gotten some other spoilers that I’d like to go over quickly here.

Avaricious Dragon seems cool and all since we just received a set that gave us “dragons matter” cards. However, I don’t think it is quite as good as it seems at first glance. A 4/4 flyer for 2RR has already been filled by Thunderbreak Regent nicely and I’m not sure if the decks that play Thunderbreak Regent want this card. I’m thinking that if this card sees play at all, it is going to be as the top of the curve in Red Deck Wins. In other words, it could certainly see play in Atarka Red as the finisher of choice once you’ve exhausted your hand of all the cheap one and two mana spells.

The unfortunate thing about the dragon is that it makes you discard your entire hand right away, since it triggers during your end step. So, I guess you have to be playing a super greedy deck as the card’s name implies. Not that burn is greedy or anything, but you could certainly make it greedier by including one or two of these bad boys in your list.

Ravaging Blaze itself isn’t that exciting to me, but the Spell Mastery ability is. See, Wizards has taken the direction of Magic much further towards creature based dominance rather than spell dominance. Now, they have created an effect that rewards you for playing instants and sorceries! I’m sure they’ve nerfed this ability in some way to make sure that it won’t be abused in Standard or other eternal formats, but it’s good to know that Wizards is also keeping mind that they need good instants and sorceries in order to keep the game fresh for players. Creature based dominance is fine, but when spells keep costing more and more mana for the same effect over the years it certainly gets annoying. Hopefully, we’ll get some exciting Spell Mastery cards that might even shake things up in eternal formats.

Dwynen (I keep saying Dy-wen in my head) is actually pretty good. An elf lord with reach, an extra ability, and a huge butt? I think this card will see play somewhere along the lines in a Constructed format, and even if it doesn’t this card will be casual gold for years to come. Lord effects are very popular among casual players, and Dwynen provides that effect on a legendary creature which is also nice for the Commander players among us. I honestly don’t think this card will ever be bulk since the lord effect and life gain ability are two things that casuals love. Plus, reach and an additional point of toughness just because? That’s just icing on the cake.

Really, Chandra’s parents needed a card? I’m not sure what role they play in her story or even the overall story of Magic as a whole, however I’m glad that they printed this card because it’s actually very unique for a red card.

I like the direction Wizards is taking red with creating Human Artificers like this card and Feldon. Though their has been a smattering of red artificers in the past, Daretti and company have reintroduced the red artificer creature subtype in a big way. This card is also breaking some color pie boundaries. A red card that generates 1/1 flying tokens when it enters the battlefield? That’s pretty sweet and definitely seems Standard playable to me.

However, the best part is that you can shock creatures and players with artifacts justs like Siege-Gang Commander does with goblins. So not only are you getting 1/1 flying Thopters with this card, but if it lives then it can start shocking things by sacrificing artifacts. That seems pretty powerful to me.

However, I guess the ultimate question is – is it good enough for Standard? I don’t really see this card being played in eternal formats, and maybe my own love for Siege-Gang Commander is making me think this card is much better than it actually is.

Wrapping Up

All the cards I’ve discussed today shouldn’t be preordered – I don’t think any of them are powerful enough to sustain their current preorder prices. However, they definitely offer a nice glimpse into what the future of Standard might look like. All of the planeswalkers seem playable, even Chandra if enough good red spell support is provided, so we’ll just have to wait and see what other support they are given (if any) once the rest of the spoilers are revealed.

What do you guys think? Did I miss the mark on some of my evaluations or do you also see some of the same connections and trends that I’ve noticed?

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