Danny Brown, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Dregs of Tarkir

June 16, 2015 Danny Brown 1 Comment

By: Danny Brown

Most players with a modicum of interest in MTG finance know the “obvious” calls leading up to the rotation of Theros this fall: getting rid of Theros block stuff that isn’t bottomed out already or applicable to eternal formats should be first on your list (three months ago, that is). Not far behind should be the acquisition of Khans of Tarkir block cards that have dipped a bit too far in the face of all the supply that has been put out on the market in the last nine months, or that might be very powerful with the types of cards we expect to see in Battle of Zendikar.

But I’m not going to talk to you about the Tasigurs and Siege Rhinos of Tarkir today. Rather, I’m going to discuss the dregs of Khans of Tarkir—the cards you probably don’t even remember existing unless you’re still actively drafting the set.

On Tasigur

Before we get into that, let me immediately do what I just said I wasn’t going to do and discuss Tasigur. But I’m doing for contrasting purposes, so it’s totally cool.

Say you’re picking up Tasigur at around $6 right now. That’s almost certainly a good call (I’ve been trading for them at that price myself), but what’s the ceiling on that type of spec? Tasigur is from a small set (good), but is only a rare (bad). He’s powerful in eternal formats (good), but the small set he’s in got drafted twice as much as a New Phyrexia or a Dragon’s Maze (bad).

Let’s assume Tasigur triples up to $18. Vendors feel confident in being able to sell copies at that price, so the spread is at a quite-reasonable-for-an-eternal-staple 33 percent. That means that buylists will be at about $12, and assuming that’s your out, this is a double-up, which is a success by any metric. Sell all those $6 Tasigurs for $12 and glory in your wisdom and foresight.

That’s probably a reasonable expectation of what will happen in the fall, but what about your wildest dreams? What if Tasigur emerged as the de facto beater in Standard, Modern, and Legacy and jumped to an absurdly large ceiling?

How absurd is too absurd for wildest-dream-level absurd, though? Do you really believe a rare in a Standard-legal set could reach (and maintain) $50? I do not. The absolute best-case scenario that still strikes me as within the realm of possibility is probably $40 with a 25-percent spread. This is by no means a prediction of what’s going to happen (I don’t actually believe it will get that high, at least within the near to mid future), but in my estimation of the card and circumstances around it, that’s the ceiling of what I believe is possible: a quintuple up.

Of course, the (just as unlikely) downside is that Tasigur gets reprinted/banned/outclassed/hosed or any number of other things to make him more or less useless. With his eternal pedigree, Tasigur dipping down to bulk-rare status is about as unlikely as him exceeding $50 retail, but crazier things have happened. In that (again, very unlikely) case, you bought in at $6 and have a card worth as low as 10 or 15 cents per copy.

These two extremes are very unlikely, but despite the low chances, they could happen. I fully expect the more realistic scenario I began with ($18 retail/$12 buylist) to be closest to the truth, and that’s why I think Tasigur is a good buy, but the range of possibilities goes from a rather large loss per card (proportionally) to around five times the buy-in price. That’s a pretty large range that has as much downside as upside, disregarding the likelihood of these extremes.

Speculating on Dregs

On the other hand, picking up cards that are at or just barely above bulk right now mixes up the range significantly. If you buy a rare for 15 cents each, you’re not risking much if anything—you can always get 10 cents per rare when selling in bulk, and some dealers will happily pay 12 or even 15 cents each. Even buying cards at 20 or 25 cents isn’t all that risky.

The upside on this type of card, though, is substantially more than the ceiling quintuple up that we presumed with Tasigur.

Nightveil Specter is this type of card. Though the floor wasn’t quite as low as the 25 cents referenced so far, it did get as low as 75 cents TCGplayer mid, and the most successful speculators on this card managed to snag copies under 50 cents. When the card became a staple in Mono-Black Devotion, it catapulted to $12 with an $8 buylist, meaning some financiers got around sixteen times their initial investments back.

Sever the Bloodline, an Innistrad rare, bottomed out in Standard at 48 cents TCGplayer mid, and I personally bought copies as low as 15 cents from the site. When the card reached $2.50 retail, the buylist price didn’t follow, but that’s where trading comes in—I traded out all of my copies for at $2.50, in turn picking up cards that I hoped would increase even more.

Whip of Erebos bottomed out a little below $2 TCGplayer mid, but copies were around for $1 and would have gotten you $8 in trade or $3 on buylists, a nice little increase if you bought in at the floor.

To varying degrees, almost every set has a low-cost and forgotten rare that becomes relevant in the following year’s new Standard format, even if only briefly. These cards often spike hard, and as you can see in the three examples above, often fall off in a big way as the format evolves and these cards get closer to rotating themselves.

So the pros of speculating on this type of low-cost but high-reward rare are that the buy-in is low, the risk of loss is minimized (due to the floor of bulk rares), and the potential multiplier on one’s investment is much higher if the card hits. The cons are that the ceiling price doesn’t often last long, and the buylist price doesn’t always follow, meaning you have to trade in order to get value from your specs. You also need to buy a lot more copies to make the same amount of total profit.

I’m on record as not wanting MTG finance to consume too much time and not liking to feel rushed to get rid of specs, but even I must admit that the pros outweigh the cons here, so every year around this time—early summer—I like to take a close look at the types of rares that are at the bottom of the list of a price-sorted set.

Durdles and Draft Bombs

As you might expect, among the cards in Khans of Tarkir that are less than 30 cents TCGplayer mid, we have a whole lot of cards that only the most casual of casual players could love. Cards like Thousand Winds, Ivorytusk Fortress, Kheru Lich Lord, and Rakshasa Vizier are not at all exciting for more “hardcore” casual formats like Commander and Cube, and even were only mildly exciting in Draft.

There’s a whole lot of junk in this category, but one creature stands out from the rest of the field: Necropolis Fiend. Just from virtue of being included in an Intro Pack, the card has limited upside. But let’s not forget that it saw some early Standard play after Khans of Tarkir was released. Yes, Tasigur, is much more efficient, but Fiend acts as removal and can fly over ground troops, giving it utility that Tasigur just can’t provide. Just glancing at TCGplayer, there are lots of copies available in the 10 to 20 cent range. I don’t look at this card and strongly believe that it’s going to spike in the fall, but given its past play and a financial risk of virtually zero, the question is whether you’re willing to spend the time it would take to purchase, store, and out this card on the small chance that it does something.

Besides the durdly creatures, the dregs of Khans rares offer up plenty of spells that were bombs in Draft but not really exciting outside of it (for example, Flying Crane Technique and Icy Blast). There’s also cards that just aren’t exciting even in Draft, like Howl of the Horde or Trap Essence. There’s just not a lot here that seems to have breakout potential in a new Standard format.

Looking a little higher than the below-30-cent rares, a few more things do stick out. Ghostfire Blade is at a TCGplayer mid of 35 cents, and while it’s no Cranial Plating, it has shown up in the occasional Affinity list to further bolster the deck’s tiny robotic troops. Duneblast (30 cents TCGplayer mid) was considered one of the most powerful cards in Khans of Tarkir Draft, and though a seven-mana wrath has as much chance as being a staple in Standard as Brainstorm being in Battle for Zendikar, the power level of this card could make it appealing to Abzan Commander players. Again, there are copies on TCGplayer for under 15 cents right now. If this breaks a dollar, sweet, but if not, the only thing lost is the time it takes to bulk these out eventually.

Finally, let’s talk about Savage Knuckleblade, which has dipped all the way down to 58 cents at TCGplayer mid. Brian Kibler had some success with a Temur Aggro archetype shortly after Khans was released, but Big Knucks hasn’t done anything since that time and has plummeted in value.

The card is clearly powerful, but it just hasn’t quite fit in to this Standard format. My inclination is to stay away from this at 40 cents (where many copies are available), as Zendikar seems unlikely to offer support for three-color decks. That won’t keep me from grabbing copies as throw-ins when possible, though, because this really is a powerful card and could easily hit $5 if people are playing it.

Uncommon Love

My first real success with speculating on an uncommon came with Flinthoof Boar, which I picked up a bunch of at 18 cents each and eBayed out for just under $2. Ever since that time, I’ve been keeping an eye on potential breakout uncommons that are being left on draft tables across the world.

When I look at the uncommons of Khans, there are five specific ones that stick out to me most:

Copies of the trilands abound on TCGplayer for around 20 cents each. Pretending that there’s not tons more copies of Khans of Tarkir trilands than Shards of Alara ones would be wrong, but it is worth pointing out that the Shards trilands buylist for over a dollar and retail for nearly two—and they have all had reprints since Shards, so there’s not that many more copies of the Khans ones.

Although the long-term prospects on Khans trilands look good, if they see a lot of Standard play this fall, the short-term prospects will be even better for those who have copies at their disposal.

Assuming the Battle for Zendikar lands are the enemy fetches (a fair assumption, I think), that means we’ll have ten fetches, five trilands, ten gainlands, and…whatever is in Magic Origins. How deep I go on the trilands will be highly predicated on what fixing is available in this set: if it looks like three-color decks will be supported, I’m much more willing to pick up trilands en masse. If not, they’ll be slow gainers that aren’t worth acquiring with as much haste.

Small Buys, Big Gains

Keeping an eye on Magic Origins spoilers is very important at this point, because they can hint to us what might be good in the next Standard format, which will in turn lead us to buying the correct cards from Khans block.

It’s always worth going through the bottom cards of a set to see if anything is blatantly underpriced. There’s nothing that screams BUY ME NOW in Khans of Tarkir, but there is potential in some of the cards I called out above. Magic Origins spoilers will help dictate how to handle these penny-stock-style picks, so keep a close eye.

I’m 500 words over my limit and I didn’t even touch on Fate Reforged and Dragons of Tarkir, but there’s a lot of opportunity in these sets as well. Do you see anything that sticks out? You know what to do.

ProTrader, Sigmund Ausfresser, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: The Chicken Little of MTG Finance

June 15, 2015 Sigmund Ausfresser 28 Comments

“The sky is falling! The sky is falling!” – Chicken Little

The folk tale of Chicken Little dates back over 25 centuries. References to the little critter are used frequently in our society. Most often the metaphor is used to describe one who is overly cautious or prone to catastrophizing. In the world of MTG Finance, people may refer to me as Chicken Little.

On Wall Street, analysts who frequently predict a doom-ridden future are known as “permabears.” Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, is probably one of the more vocal “Chicken Littles” of Wall Street. CNBC showcases an article with his opinion on a weekly basis.

What value could permabears have for the MTG economy? Can everything truly be so dire? Why am I always so risk-averse?

Hopefully I can shed some light into my motivations in this article, along with why it’s not a bad idea to listen to Chicken Little…once in a while.

Motivations

I’ve mentioned my primary motivation for MTG Finance numerous times already. My son is three years old – in 15 years I hope he decides to pursue a college degree. To help pay for said degree I’m attempting to generate as much cash as possible from this hobby. Once I earn a certain amount of profits, I move funds out of Magic and into a Fidelity account. This Fidelity account houses a well-balanced portfolio of stocks and funds which will hopefully grow and compound profitably over the next 15 years.

That’s my approach. Losing money hinders my objective. The goal is to make money in Magic. Simple enough, right?

What accompanies this objective is a corollary I’ve come to accept: playing the game can be bad for business.

This isn’t always true. I’m oversimplifying here. For one, there’s always the risk/reward balance to keep in mind. Maintaining a Tier 1 Standard deck can be costly when new sets are constantly shaking up the metagame. If you’re a skillful player, that may not matter. You could win enough events to more than cover your expense for maintaining or switching decks in Standard. Guess what: I don’t play frequently enough to be a skillful player.

That means Standard is out. I honestly haven’t been excited about Standard in quite some time anyway.

I used to view Modern as the ultimate compromise. I could build a deck I liked and confidently play it for years to come, maintaining minimally while not having to sink a thousand bucks into a mana base and some Force of Wills. Then this happened:

My Modern deck was blown out of contention by the banning of Birthing Pod. Not only was I left with an unplayable deck, but I was also left with measurable financial loss. Was the loss completely unbearable? No. But remember, I hate losing money.

What is Enjoyment Worth?

I didn’t want to abandon Modern altogether so I built the deck that looked most attractive to me after Melira Pod. That happened to be Amulet Bloom. I bought into the deck, and have since netted a small amount of profit thanks to its rapid rise in popularity. The deck rose to Tier 1 status, and I was beginning to feel energized by the format again.

Then Brian Braun-Duin wrote an article.

When professional players write about and clamor for a Modern banning, I listen. And when it’s my deck in particular they are stating is overpowered, I act. Can you blame me? I was fooled once by holding my Pod deck for too long, shame on WOTC. Do you honestly think I can hold the newly hated Amulet Bloom deck? If I did, I would be the only one to blame. In fact MTGPrice writer Travis Allen put it best recently on Twitter when he exclaimed:

Let me be first to admit this is a bit of a Chicken Little statement in and of itself. There are no guarantees something in the Bloom Titan deck gets banned. Additionally, a potential ban could take months or even a year while Wizards closely examines metagame evolution. Still, you can see why Travis’ tweet struck close to home.

With all this swirl in the rearview mirror, I decided to sell my Amulet Bloom deck. Perhaps my action was a bit rash, but I believe my gut instinct is correct in this case. It all ties back to my motivations. In reality I was playing Modern on a very infrequent basis – other formats are simply more attractive to me. So my net enjoyment of the Amulet Bloom deck was low. Weigh that against the risk of financial downside, and you can quickly see how the logic added up in my mind.

Is there really significant downside in holding an Amulet Bloom deck? I would challenge you to define significant, because that word could mean different things to different people. For some, the blow of even $50 in value could be a major hit worth avoiding. Meanwhile others may laugh at a $50 loss and chalk it up to “the cost of playing the game.” For me personally, it’s less about the absolute number and more about the implication. I will have lost more money from my son’s college fund. And to what end? A few casual games of Modern with no rewards or ramifications to the outcome of those games? I don’t play in competitive Modern events nearly enough to justify this.

Thus, I decided to sell the deck and move on.

Big Picture

In hindsight, perhaps Modern isn’t the right format for me. I’m constantly weathering reprint threats, bannings, and metagame shifts when attempting to maximize value of the collection. And while I DO have a soft spot for the game in my heart, I need to focus on my overarching objective when making financial decisions. This conclusion is what motivated me to write my recent article on why trading Modern is a boon but investing in Modern is a fool’s errand.

We should be buying and selling Modern cards in order to catch jumps in stuff like Raging Ravine and Oblivion Stone.

At the same time, we should also recognize that these price jumps come and go on a daily basis. To avoid losses, it’s imperative that we sell cards on these jumps. For the risk averse (or risk intolerant) like myself, there’s no other way to interact in this format.

This is exactly why I’ve adopted a “permabear” type attitude in Modern; a Chicken Little mindset, for those who want to add humor at my expense. In the five years I’ve been actively involved in MTG Finance, I’ve learned a great deal about my motivations. Acting according to the final objective of funding a beloved child’s college education is only logical. My holding of high risk cards that I use once every two months at a kitchen table simply cannot be justified.

“It’s a Game, Sig”

Magic: the Gathering is a game. We’re supposed to have fun playing and not worry about financial implications.

I could not agree more. That’s why I’m shifting focus to the formats I really enjoy most: Legacy, 93/94, and Commander. These formats allow me to play with cards I love while also enabling me to maintain or increase value of my collection over time. Sitting on a 93/94 deck is like making a long-term investment that you also can enjoy on occasion. I don’t have to worry about my Beta Hypnotic Specters or Juzam Djinns getting banned or reprinted.

Even if I only enjoy playing a 93/94 match once every two months, there’s virtually no threat of sudden price depreciation. As I’ve stated before, it’s the perfect format for the Chicken Littles of MTG Finance. Or for those who have other responsibilities that inhibit them from playing in frequent competitive events.

That includes me.

Wrapping It Up

I do want to mention one other variable my critics fail to give me credit for. By constantly flipping Modern cards for modest profit I’m maintaining high liquidity. Being vested in Modern or Standard decks can soak up a sizable chunk of one’s bankroll. By remaining less engaged in these formats (or alternatively, playing budget decks) I can free up cash for other investments.

So when I sell my Primeval Titans, Summer Blooms, and Amulet of Vigors it’s not like I’m sitting on dead money. The cash is put to work. Having liquidity in and of itself is extremely important. Just recently an MTG friend on Facebook alerted me to an attractive eBay listing: a SP Beta Mind Twist for $120. That’s a steal of a price, and my friend encouraged me to pick it up if I was in the market for the card.

Why didn’t my friend purchase the card himself? He stated he was lacking the funds after purchasing numerous other Old School MTG cards. For those of us who aren’t working with dealer-sized bankrolls, this problem is easy to relate to.

So what’s more likely to appreciate in price in the next 365 days, an Amulet Bloom deck or a Beta Mind Twist? My money is quite literally on the latter. Which is going to be more enjoyable to me during my kitchen table battles? Still the latter, as the Mind Twist fits perfectly in my 93/94 deck.

“The sky is falling! The sky is falling!”

The story of Chicken Little is very well known. It’s obvious Modern is a healthy format with a bright future. Card prices will rise and fall for years to come. My advice to you is to consider your own motivations for MTG Finance. If you’re getting tremendous enjoyment out of your Modern and Standard cards by playing in frequent tournaments, it’s absolutely the right decision to stay the course. You can filter my panic and let my worries go in one ear and out the other.

Permabears aren’t correct a lot of the time. No one should blindly follow them. But what permabears and Chicken Littles do well is they frequently challenge your investment decisions. We are forced to at least consider what they’re saying, which keeps us in check. Hopefully they can help us avoid any unsustainable price bubbles. It’s when the permabears become bullish that we truly must panic, for when the last bear remains bullish we have truly hit a peak. Obviously we’re not there yet.

Chicken Littles can also help us reexamine our motivations, so that we keep our eyes on the prize. For me, I will remain content flipping Modern cards over a short term period to grind profits from the format. This is a very exciting time for Modern prices where spikes happen on a daily basis. There is SO much money to be made here.

My long-term MTG positions however, will remain in safer cards. This helps me sleep better at night, and it also keeps me on track for achieving the end goal of funding my son’s college education. For if that sky ever does fall (no matter how unlikely), I don’t want to be devastated by the ensuing blood bath. Chicken Little will always be one step ahead in this regard.

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

I continue to check mtgstocks.com on a daily basis, and lately I’ve noticed a trend. There are two categories of cards with significant representation on the recent price movers: Modern and older reserved list cards. Everyone knows about the Modern ones, but did you know…

– Tawnos’s Coffin, a rare from Antiquities, has been sold out at SCG for weeks now. Don’t be mislead by the $24.99 price tag – this card has exploded in recent weeks. Finding nice copies of this card for under $50 will be very difficult moving forward.

– Guardian Beast has also been on the rise recently. Star City Games has just 1 MP copy in stock with a $39.99 price tag. Seeing as the top NM buy price according to mtgprice.com is $50, you can be sure SCG’s pricing will be on the rise some point in the near future.

– Don’t ask me why, but Shahrazad – my all time favorite Magic: the Gathering card – has shown up on the MTG Stocks Interests page a couple of times now. The card is deemed by most as completely unfun, although I personally love the flavor. In any event, SCG has just 1 copy in stock with a $79.99 price tag. Don’t expect this to double any time soon, but if you’re looking for a copy for nostalgia’s sake, you may not want to procrastinate forever since this won’t be getting any cheaper.

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GP Charlotte Coverage: Day 2

June 14, 2015 James Chillcott 8 Comments

After an exciting and diverse Day 1 at our latest Modern format Grand Prix, plenty of big names are in the running.

Here’s our coverage from Day 1.

According to the official stats, Grixis Twin, Affinity and Jund are all topping the metagame with around 10% of the field, but a full 15+ archetypes make up the rest of the field, including Merfolk, Naya Burn, R/G Tron, U/B Faeries, Goryo’s Vengeance and Amulet Bloom.

One of the more interesting decks arrived in the hands of Shaheen Soorani. Blink Riders looks to work a mana denial angle to go after the big mana decks with a vengeance.

See more details on the metagame here.

Here’s what’s developing at the top tables in our final day:

Round 11

In this round Korean national Nam Sung Wook brought the heat by tabling Thunderbreak Regent in Modern and taking down long time pro Willy Edel on Abzan.

Round 13

Ken Van Sciver (Infect) vs Darien Elderfield (Ad Nauseum)

Here we have a battle of two fairly non-interactive style decks and a rare appearance by the Ad Nauseum deck. Darien takes game 1 by going off smoothly and killing Ken with Lightning Storm. In Game 2 Darien casts a spicy Darkness to buy some time to set up his win and take the match, moving to 12-1 and putting himself in position to qualify for the Pro Tour.

Round 14

Paul Reitzel (Naya Collected Company) vs. Ben Wincorp (Bant)

Rietzl on a mid-range zoo build that leverages Collected Company without any combo elements to just overwhelm opponents. Both players at 10-2 and in Top 8 contention if they keeping winning.

During his Dech Tech Reitzel explains that Wild Nacatl is the 2nd best creature (by rate) in Modern, and bolsters Collected Company as a great backup plan against grindy decks. Scavenging Ooze looked great in various matches as well.

Patrick Chapin (Grixis Control) vs. Alexander Hayne (Amulet Bloom)

Chapin takes down Hayne on the back of Shadow of Doubt and a small run on the card just went down.

Top 8

So after two long days where GR Tron and Amulet Bloom were the decks to beat, neither deck has showed up in the Top 8. Instead we’re facing the following decks as potential champions for the GP:

The expected Top 8 buyouts have already started with Nourishing Shoal, a new piece of tech in the Goryo’s Vengeance deck, disappearing across the online vendors.

Wesley See takes down Sam Pardee in the mirror match with the help of Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir into the Splinter Twin combo. Ad Nauseum takes down the Vengance deck, throwing the Nourishing Shoal spec into shadow, and Affinity takes down Abzan Company.

Here’s our Top 4:

Elves vs. Twin in the finals! Elves wins it all! Look for Foil Collected Company to make another potential move.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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GP Charlotte Coverage: Day 1

June 13, 2015 James Chillcott 8 Comments

Nearly 4 months after Pro Tour: Fate Reforged and a lively Modern metagame, here we are at the doorstep of another epic battle between top Magic: The Gathering pros from across the continent as GPCharlotte puts the focus back on Modern cards just a week after the SCG Invitational and Open did the same.

Coming out of last week, the top decks included 2 copies of Amulet Bloom, a resurgent Jund build, a fairly stock Merfolk deck, Grixis Twin and two copies of R/G Tron, with the latter taking down the tournament.

For the MTG Finance community, a plethora of spikes this week on cards that weren’t included in Modern Masters 2015 may have exhausted a lot of the spike potential for the weekend. And yet, some of the reprints from MM2 have strong potential for a rebound on the back of a fresh Top 8.

First off, here’s a couple of Buylist boards from the vendors, as reported by our readers:

Channel Fireball

Aether Games

Derek from Aether Games reports:

Now, here are some early stories worth paying attention to:

Dark Confidant

Sitting at a 5-year low of $40-45, Bob is in position for a strong rebound if it can find a Top 8 in the company of a Jund build or something fresh that demonstrates the power of drawing extra cards every turn. Just a year ago it would have been unthinkable that Dark Confidant would swap price points with Snapcaster Mage but here we are with this former staple struggling to find a consistent home. While it’s true that the card has been reprinted twice in the last three years, those printings were more more uber-mythic than true mythic given the short run nature of the sets, and I have the card on my radar to regain ground to $60 if it manages a strong finish at this tournament.

Snapcaster Mage

From $20 to $80+ in a little over a year makes for some very nice returns for those of us that have been hoarding copies waiting for this day. As a flexible spell l retrieval unit, complete with a low and splash-able casting cost, Tiago Chan’s invitational card may still have room to grow if it can find a Top 8 via the success of a Jeskai Tempo, Grixis Twin or Grixis Control. A reprint is unlikely prior to 2017 as this card bears a strong mark as an MM3 target, so there is definitely room to run.

Amulet of Vigor

With a 2nd place finish at Pro Tour: Fate Reforged in February and two copies in the Top 8 last week at the SCG Invi, scrutiny is now squarely on the deck that allows for some of the fastest kills in the format. Another win at this tournament could easily trigger a tactical banning, which should have owners of the deck feeling fairly nervous.

Splinter Twin

Whether it’s being on display in UR Twin, RUG Twin with Tarmogoyf or the more recently debuted Grixis Twin, this format defining combo card may be safe from a banning due to it’s recent reprinting in MM 2015. As an auto 3-of or 4-of in all variants of the deck, this card has fallen 50% or so since the reprinting, but could stand to gain ground before end of summer on the back of another strong finish at this tournament. Absent a ban, I can easily see this card topping $30 before end of the year so I’ve been picking up copies.

Kolaghan’s Command

Overlooked when first spoiled, this Command may well end up being the best of the five for Modern play. With the ability to handle small creatures, key artifacts in Merfolk, Tron and Affinity, return relevant creatures or force a discard at a key moment, the versatility of modal spells is being proven out yet again. Foils have already doubled up but I suspect they have further to run should they take a trophy home.

Deceiver Exarch

Despite a reprinting in Commander 2013, this banner uncommon often found as a 3 or 4-of in Twin variants has spiked hard this week, with a buyout driving the price from $1.50 up to $4. A good showing from one of the Twin decks could cement the new price.

Round to Round Coverage

Round 1

Ali Aintrazi (R/G Tron) vs. Robert Rankin (Infect)

Aintrazi steals a surprise Game 1 victory on the back of two copies of Pyroclasm.

Round 3

LSV (Grixis Twin) vs. Christian Calcano (Grixis Twin)

This match puts the focus clearly on the key cards from the latest incarnation of Splinter Twin decks, including: Kolaghan’s Command, Splinter Twin, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Thoughtseize, Snapcaster Mage and Cryptic Command.

Collins Mulen (Burn) vs. Justin Cohen (Amulet Bloom)

Former Top 8 Bloom player, Justin Cohen is back on camera at 3-0 with the deck he helped bring into the spotlight. Destructive Revelry in the hands of Mulen takes out the Amulet of Vigor that Cohen needed to go off, and Burn steals the match.

Round 6

Patrick Dickmann (Temur Twin) vs. John Runyon (Grixis Twin)

Dickmann takes Game 1 relatively easily. A flurry of remands in Game 2 underscores the importance of this card in Modern and serves as a reminder that the recently reprinted uncommon will likely regain lost ground within the year. A pair of Deceiver Exarchs put away Game 2 for Runyon to even things up and reinforce the price spike on Exarch this week. Dickmann snags a last turn win off of a top decked Cryptic Command to steal the 3rd game in extra turns!

Dragonlord Ojutai has been called out as a key card in a deck tech with Matt Sperling to air shortly. A couple of Jund decks are 7-0 in the hands of players like Owen Turtenwald and Andrew Boswell.

Round 8

Huang Hao-Shan (Burn) vs. Aaron Barich (Infect)

Infect takes game 1 and beats a great hand from Hao-Shan to take the match.

Patrick Chapin (Grixis Twin) vs. Grant Knierim (U/R Twin)

Gurmag Angler and Jace, Architect of Thought getting some camera time in Game 2. A rare appearance by Countersquall in Game 3 as Chapin picks up the pace in a plodding control mirror in danger of hitting extra turns. Kolaghan’s Command on display again as a key new staple in Modern. Chapin plays tight and gets the win he needs to make Day 2.

Deck Tech: Adrian Sullivan (Esper Control)

Dragonlord Ojutai being put to use as a 4-of as a central pillar of the deck. Running two copies of Nameless Inversion to turn on Silumgar’s Scorn. Also running Careful Consideration, Tolaria West, Minamo, School at Water’s Edge, and Calciform Pools.

Round 9

Ben Stark (Abzan Company) vs. Patrick Dickmann (Temur Twin)

Hall of Famer Ben Stark is putting a strong spotlight on Collected Company’s future in Modern, take on one of the best decks and players in the format on camera. Scavenging Ooze and Voice of Resurgance both looked great, but Dickmann goes to 8-1 moving into Day 2.