The Mailbag Article

June 11, 2015 Douglas Johnson 16 Comments

By: Douglas Johnson

Welcome back! The week after Vegas has been anything but dull, at least in terms of Modern cards jumping up and down (mostly up).

Last week, I ended on the note that I would take specific requests concerning the financial side of Magic and answer them this week in as much detail as I could. Thankfully, I got a few responses to that, which at least proves that there are a few people who read this column. After answering some questions, I’ll go over a few of the Modern cards that jumped in price this past week, and what you should do with them depending on how many copies you own.

I’ll throw in a disclaimer first though: due to the speculative nature associated with some of these questions, my answers are not guaranteed to have a higher percentage of being correct than any of your guesses. None of us know what’s going to be in Battle for Zendikar, and my being a financier doesn’t give me an edge in those predictions.

Question #1

First off, we have Jeremy B. asking when the correct time to upgrade his Zendikar fetch lands in his Commander deck is. He’s wondering if the (assumed) reprint in Battle for Zendikar will affect the original printing’s foil price, or if the shock lands will prove to set an example of “original print foils creeping above $100.” There’s also a follow-up question about the ideal time to pick up foil copies of Survival of the Fittest and Wasteland. Even though my record with predicting fetch land reprints is not exactly stellar, I’m more than willing to vomit my opinions and thoughts onto the internet.

The general consensus on whether fetch lands will be in BFZ or not is pretty divided, but I’m standing firmly in the camp of, “Yes, Wizards will bring them back in the fall set with new art.” While this would put all ten fetches into Standard at the same time for six months, I’m willing to believe that those six months will be the last part of ripping off the Band-Aid of the new Standard rotation scheme. If they do end up in the set, foils of the new art will definitely be cheaper as product pours into the players hands en masse. That part is the no-brainer. But will the original Zendikar foils drop as well? I’m inclined to believe they will, but not by a huge amount.

An Onslaught foil Polluted Delta will run you about $400, and a large part of that is tied to a group of people who believe that old-border foils are the only way to play Magic. A 2005 foil Temple Garden is almost $75, because the old art is apparently loved by a larger group of people. I’m willing to believe that the same will hold true for these fetches—there will be people who want to believe that “older is better,” and this will keep the price tag up above the new foils—but they will still drop a bit, as some players will want to liquidate their foils in the face of the announcement.

As for Jeremy’s situation specifically: I think you can definitely wait on the fetch lands for your deck. You said in your message that you’re patient and that these aren’t something you need immediately for an event. Your Commander deck is fully functional with non-foils for the time being, and I don’t think anyone will fault you for not having the most expensive version of a card that appears to be imminent for a reprint.

Now, let’s talk about the desire for foils of Survival and Wasteland. The former is easy to get out of the way: it’s on the reserved list, so bite the bullet now and buy or trade for one if you really want it. It is not going to be printed again, and it’s an iconic enough art that it won’t be forgotten easily. I think you’re safe buying in now, and you shouldn’t have to work too hard to move it if you ever take apart the deck. If you’re patient, you can probably find one on a Facebook group or eBay auction for under $250.

Regarding Wasteland, I’ve had multiple discussions with my colleagues about whether or not Wasteland could be reprinted in Modern or even Standard. The card’s power level in those formats can be debated by those who play the game at a much higher level than I do, but my concern is focused more on whether or not WOTC feels that its presence would be promoting a healthy game type. Wizards hasn’t printed Stone Rain in forever, and it’s not because the card is overpowered. Early and immediate land destruction just isn’t where WOTC wants to take the game, so I’m inclined to believe that buying into a foil Wateland for your commander deck is still safe. It’s not as safe as a foil Survival, but it’s better than foil fetches. Your best bet for grabbing both without Wastelanding your wallet is definitely through a trade binder or eBay/Facebook auctions for cash.

Question #2

Next up we have another question concerning Battle for Zendikar. Spencer asks if I think there will be new Eldrazi to replace the current ones, as well as what other reprints we might see from the original Zendikar. I don’t think that WOTC needs to one-up their Eldrazi from last time, especially since they’ve already tied the lore to those three specific titans. What I do think is possible is printing three “new forms” of Ulamog, Kozilek, and Emrakul, similar to what was done with Niv-Mizzet in RTR. He was an iconic character that they wanted to “touch up,” so Wizards just printed a different version of him. I think the same is potentially true with the three Eldrazi, as I’m not sure how “fun” the originals were seen to be.

Spell Pierce is an interesting case study, especially since I saw practically zero people complaining about the fact that it wasn’t in Modern Masters 2015. It’s a $2 common with a $35 foil, but I don’t think it or Goblin Guide will be in BFZ. Maybe I’m horribly wrong, but I think RTR is an excellent model that Wizards will use this fall when returning to Zendikar. Return to Ravnica actually had zero non-land reprints from the original block in 2005 and 2006, using the ten shock lands to support a significant portion of the nostalgia from the old set, while they got to spend the rest of the block creating and shaping new identities for the guilds and their members. The company could certainly do the same thing here and choose a different style of full-art lands to help hype up the set. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see Pierce or Guide pop up in a supplemental product soon, but I don’t think either will be in the upcoming fall set.

Question #3:

Liliana has almost reached the finish line in the race of $100 Modern singles, and foil Tarmogoyf has maintained its throne as the Modern Lotus of Magic (in fact, Maynard’s Goyf from Vegas sold for more than some Lotuses). I think the right answer to this question depends on your personal goals and what you’re planning to do with the cards in the future. If you plan on completing a set of foil Goys or hope to continue trading upwards and grinding value, then I think the single $350 bill is the place to be. The only situations I can think of where you might want to keep the Lilianas is if you’re planning on using them in a deck in the near future, or if you don’t have access to trading or selling very frequently and were planning on holding them for a few months. While the Goyf is better value at this moment, the Lilianas are quickly catching up and have a chance to pass the Goyf six months from now, as a rough guess.

Personally, I’d rather have the foil Goyf, and just sell it right now for $270, instead of selling the three Lilianas for $240.

Question #4:

Wow. Thanks to WUBRG from the MTGPrice ProTrader forums for the lengthy discussion topic! Reprints have definitely been the hot topic of late, with everyone wanting to maximize on value and not be screwed over by their expensive cards suddenly being worth nothing. This question is actually pretty similar to the first one I answered, but there’s definitely room to expand on where I would place my own money. Instead of buying into casual foils that were reprinted in Modern Masters 2015, I would prefer to put my money on reserved-list stuff, as you said. Sigmund recently touched on this, and I completely agree that Modern is not the place you want to be for long-term investments.

You suggested that “pimp” EDH cards will always have demand, even if Magic dies, but I have to disagree. If the game dies, none of those cards will matter anymore. I think the only thing that would potentially hold value is Power, Alpha, Beta, and maybe dual lands. The “pimp” factor makes cards a lot harder to move, especially when there is a higher percentage of players who just want the cheapest copies available to foil out their decks. If you’re just looking to “hold” value and prevent your cards from being absolutely decimated by reprints, then I think you’re fine, but I definitely wouldn’t use it as a solid investment strategy. Buying multiple copies of EDH staples and planning to sell them at a later date results in the huge inconvenience of moving them all, as I’ve learned the hard way by still owning over 45 copies of Ghave, Guru of Spores. Foils are even slower to move, so you’ll likely end up having to buylist them for a very minimal profit.

There’s also a pretty significant factor to consider in the similarity or difference in artwork between printings. If the artwork never changes, then the original printing becomes much less of a premium if the only differing factors are the set symbol and the hologram at the bottom. Take Creakwood Liege for example: the Modern Masters 2015 foil is $10 and the Eventide one is $15. If you buy into the Eventide foil at $10 for a 33-percent discount, who do you plan on selling it to? There’s no real flair to it that differentiates it as unique, so you’ll have to find someone who really cares about the set symbol. If you really want to invest in first-printing foils, pick something with a different art or different border.

End Step

In other news, there were several Modern singles that spiked over this past week. Oblivion Stone, Creeping Tar Pit, and Olivia Voldaren joined forces to make you miserable if you have to buy them now, and they form a team of “fringe playable cards in Modern that are now worth a lot more than you probably thought they would be.” If you have them, sell them. This article comes out on Thursday, but you should still be able to get a better deal than a week ago. Meanwhile, Blood Moon is dropping back down, to the surprise of nobody. While it won’t go back to its previous $25 to $30, you can wait until the decline stops at $45 or $50 instead of buying in at $60.

So what do you do? Modern is supposed to be this reprint-centric, accessible format, but we also have $20 Tar Pits running around. Do you buy into a Modern legal-card that hasn’t spiked yet and hope it goes up, or do you wait and cross your fingers for a reprint like MMA15 before buying in ? Let me know in the comments what your approach to Modern singles is, because I’m curious about the different approaches that people are using.

Thanks for reading!

Finding Value, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: My Bets for GP Charlotte

June 11, 2015 Guo Heng Chin 5 Comments

By: Guo Heng

So much for taking notes during last weekend’s Star City Games’s first ever Modern Invitational in Columbus. Two of the cards that were sorely undervalued upon the conclusion of the Invitational—Olivia Voldaren and Huntmaster of the Fells—spiked fast and hard over the last few days, forcing me to change my initial plan for today’s column. Instead of discussing four cards I think will emerge more expensive by this time next week, I am going to talk about two things today:

Will Olivia and Huntmaster remain at their lofty new prices?
My bet for the archetype that would be performing the best at Grand Prix Charlotte and the card that would spike with it.

The New Jund Overlords

First off, we have a new queen in Jund. Olivia Voldaren saw some play back when the deck dominated the format, in an era when Birthing Pod was legal, but she wasn’t as powerful back then as she is today in a metagame full of grindy creatures and Lingering Souls. An unanswered Olivia takes over any creature-based matchup and she is not exactly easy to answer if deployed properly (a.k.a. with 1R open to grow her toughness to four in response to Lightning Bolt).

Olivia was hovering at $6.60 when the Invitational concluded and spiked hard over the next few days to the $17.32 she is at today. Is her $17 price tag justified for a card that sees play as a two-of in the 75 of Jund and occasionally as a one-of in Grixis Twin‘s sideboard?

My answer is yes. She is a mythic from Innistrad, which was opened nearly four years ago (how time has passed!), so it’s probably about time that Olivia’s price hits double-digits as a mythic that sees Modern play. Olivia seems to be a trump card in grindy creature matchups and fits in any decks that runs BR and wants to grind out the long game.

I don’t think $17 is the ceiling for Olivia if Jund continues to perform this weekend or if Grixis Twin starts to adopt her as a sideboard mainstay. On the other hand, Olivia is at most played in twos and that limits her price ceiling. I’d say $25 is the highest she could go in best-case scenario.

The hunt is on again. We’re hunting fair decks this time.

Huntmaster of the Fells is a wholly different beast. Like Olivia, Huntmaster spiked from the $6 to $18 within days following the Invitational. Remember, Jund made top eight of both the Invitational and Modern Open. However, I don’t think Huntmaster’s price is done spiking yet.

While he was just found as a two-of in Jund’s sideboard, Huntmaster sees play in a larger variety of decks compared with Olivia. While Olivia’s role is to break open creature mirrors, Huntmaster serves as instant value in a format where removal is generally one-for-one. He is a bit like a planeswalker in the fact that he is a card that does multiple things: create board position, gains life, takes out small creatures, and domes the opponent.

While Huntmaster can be found in a variety of midrange lists that runs his colors, his current surge in price is solely driven by Jund’s recent performance.

However, I think that he has yet to hit his ceiling. Huntmaster was present as a four-of in the sideboard of a variant of an archetype that I think is very well-positioned for this weekend’s Grand Prix, which segues perfectly into the next segment:

Next-Level Delver

Check out this new take on Delver that took down a 273-player StarCityGames Modern Premier IQ in the weekend before Modern Masters 2015 weekend:

While Delver decks went down the Grixis route to get access to the black Tarmogoyf, Kolaghan’s Command, and efficient creature removal suites resulting in an overall better midrange game, Jordan Boisvert took Delver down a whole different road. He shifted the deck’s gear to tempo and went full speed ahead.

His version of Temur Delver plays the protect-the-queen strategy to the max. The playset of Disrupting Shoal protect your turn-one Delver of Secrets or turn two-Tarmogoyf or Hooting Mandrills. Stubborn Denial adds another three copies of an efficient counterspell to ensure the survival of your early, undercosted threats.

Instead of looking for an improved mid-to-long game capability, Boisvert’s Temur Delver just aims to deploy multiple undercosted threats within the first few turns of the game and protect them with highly efficient counterspells. Disrupting Shoal transforms card advantage into tempo, playing a similar role in Modern as with Force of Will in Legacy Temur Delver. With the most popular Modern removal spells costing one mana (Path to Exile and Lightning Bolt) and half the spells in the deck consisting of one-mana blue spells, there is no shortage of cards to pitch to ~~Force of Will~~ Disrupting Shoal.

Jordan Boisvert’s write-up on how he came to the list and the decks choice of cards is well worth a read. In his article, Jordan mentioned that Huntmaster of the Fells excels in any matchups against fair decks. Based on his individual matchup analysis, Huntmaster seems to be brought in post-board the majority of the time, even against aggro decks like Burn and Affinity, against Grixis Delver, and even Twin decks in anticipation of grindy post-board games.

The question now is: was the deck merely a one-hit wonder?

Adam Fronsee, impressed with Jordan’s list, brought a Delver deck that runs the same core as Jordan’s Temur Delver list (delve creatures, Disrupting Shoal, and Stubborn Denial), but contains black instead of red, which gave him access to more Delve creatures and Abrupt Decay. His list was one of the best-performing decks in the Modern portion of the Invitational. Adam Fronsee finished 12th, probably let down by his Standard showing.

It looks like the pure tempo version of Delver running the Disrupting Shoal and Stubborn Denial core may be the next direction of Delver’s evolution. It’s hard for Delver to play the midrange game with Jund and Abzan doing it much better. The addition of powerful Delve creatures like Tasigur, the Golden Fang and Hooting Mandrills gave Delver more options for undercosted creatures, improving the archetype’s tempo game.

The Modern Force of Will, Finally?

Should Delver move towards a tempo-centric build, Disrupting Shoal would be the card that stands to gain the most price-wise.

Disrupting Shoal Price — Finally fulfilling its destiny as Modern’s Force of Will?

Disrupting Shoal is not the Force of Will that Modern needs, but the Force of Will that Modern deserves. Having dodged reprint in both Modern Masters, the supply of Disrupting Shoal is dangerously low. I dare not even posit its ceiling shall Delver decks move towards the Boisvert’s tempo core that runs a full four Shoals. After a spike in January 2014 due to Travis Woo’s ephemeral Ninja Bear Delver, it is now back down to $6. I think it is a safe bet to buy in a this price, or at least pick up your own playset if you ever intend on playing Delver in Modern.

Delver for Charlotte

One of the reason why I am bullish on cards related to new Delver tech is that Delver, be it Grixis, Temur, or Sultai, seems to be in a good position for Grand Prix Charlotte, assuming the metagame shifts in response to last week’s Star City Games Invitational and Modern Open results.

At level zero, we could expect more Green-Red Tron decks, seeing that Green-Red Tron took down both the Invitational and Modern Open. Delver decks have a great matchup against any deck that attempts to resolve seven- and eight-mana spells. Temur and Sultai Delver probably just eat Tron for breakfast with their slew of undercosted threats that survive Pyroclasm.

The Tron decks would probably eat up the fairest-of-the-fair Jund and Abzan decks. While Delver can handle Jund, Abzan is an atrocious matchup, so having to face less of those decks improves the odds for Delver. Luckily, Abzan is falling out of favor and players are opting for Jund once again, which is good news for the tempo-oriented Delver builds: no more Path to Exile and Siege Rhino, the best answers to Delver’s undercosted fatties. Abrupt Decay is plain useless against Delve creatures.

At level one, we can expect more Twin and Infect, two natural predators of the Tron decks that can scarcely interact with them in game one. Delver has a favorable matchup against both these decks, as Boisvert explained in his write-up.

Based on the above, I think there is a good chance we will see at least one Delver deck finally make top eight of a large event in the post-Treasure Cruise-and-Pod landscape. It’s hard to predict which build would be the one to make it all the way, but after watching Boisvert’s Temur Delver demolish the popular Grixis Delver in Jeff Hoogland and Mat Bimonte’s Crash Test series, I think the tempo-based Delver decks running Disrupting Shoal stand a better chance. After all, if Delver decks are king at the Grand Prix, the Delver that eats other Delvers would be emperor.

Thanks for reading today. Do share your thoughts and predictions for Grand Prix Charlotte in the comments section below or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.

Corbin Hosler, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: One Last Look at Modern Masters 2015

June 11, 2015 Corbin Hosler 8 Comments

By: Corbin Hosler

Very rarely does something so thoroughly dominate the conversation as Modern Masters 2015 has managed to do, and it’s been a wild ride. From exciting spoilers and eco-friendly packaging to underwhelming rares and damaged and/or missing cards to the largest trading card tournament ever hosted, Modern Masters 2015 has certainly delivered in the Magic news cycle, if not in the hearts, minds, and wallets of all players.

That said, we’re finally moving past Modern Masters 2015 and into the time of Magic Origins. I think I’ve written about Modern Masters sets four of the last five weeks or something crazy like that. It’s not usually my style to harp on things for so long, but every week when I’ve sat down to write it has felt like this is the set we’re most interested in hearing more about, and the one on the forefront of people’s minds.

Barring any unforeseen developments, it seems like that time is finally moving behind us. I’m not promising no more Modern articles (after all, I’m working Grand Prix Charlotte this weekend, and it’s going to be very interesting to see how the Modern metagame adapts after last week’s Invitational), but I do think I’ll be done talking about Modern Masters 2015 before too long.

That said, there are some odds and ends in my coverage of the set I want to put in order before I close the book on it. Thus far, I’ve focused on the hype, the early movements, the fallout from Vegas, and what effect the additional printings have had on prices.

What I haven’t done is talk about the future of the set: where it’s going, what cards are good pickups now versus what will be good in a year, what cards to stay away from, etc. I’ve had a few requests for this type of analysis, and I want to make sure I take care of that before moving on.

So, with the preamble out of the way, I’ll dig in. The plan is to treat this somewhat like my typical set review, highlighting cards I feel strongly about one way or another.

Pick-Ups Now

Let’s start at the top, with the cards I believe have bottomed out in price already and will be trending upward from this point forward. In some senses, this applies to much of the set, but I want to use this first section to talk about those cards that are going to move back up the quickest.

The shortlist is pretty, well, short:

There are a few others I could maybe throw onto this list, but I want to be clear about why this is my shortlist. These are not the only cards that have bottomed out, but they are the ones I believe will stay bottomed out for the least amount of time. In other words, these highly-played cards will see a price rebound much sooner than some of the other cards in the set for which I believe there is more time to pick up.

But these are the most desirable cards in the set, and the time they’re bottoming out is now, and it won’t be for long. The only true question mark is, with Grand Prix Charlotte this weekend being Modern, if we’ll see an effect similar to Grand Prix Richmond last year, where prices spike leading up to the event and then trail off afterward. That remains to be determined, but for now there’s not much to indicate that these cards will stay at this lower level for too long.

The Next Tier

Here we have the cards that I believe are good pickups, but not quite as pressing. Think of things like Lava Spike from the first Modern Masters. We knew it would be a good pickup, but it’s taken until this year (two years later) to really pay off.

These cards exist in Modern Masters 2015 as well, and I wanted to highlight a few of them.

Eldrazi

Prices are still trending downward on these, and I expect that to continue for another few weeks or even months. I’m not sure how much further these have to fall, but chances are it’s another $5 or so. Keep an eye for the bottom on these moving forward, and buy in there. These are going to be great gainers over the next few years, even if Battle for Zendikar comes along and gives us new, cool Eldrazi. Chances are these original Big Three™ won’t be replaced, they’ll simply be added to a larger roster.

On this note, I like Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple, as well. Temple is something that will quickly become a forgotten-about uncommon and a solid pickup, but I think the better bet is Eye. This thing is great in Commander, gets played in Modern, and will look especially impressive after we return to Zendikar and get more Eldrazi for it to play with.

Other cards I put in this category of “good pick-ups a month or two from now”:

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Fulminator Mage (it’s worth noting that with Jund on the rebound, and it needing to handle GR Tron, this could move sooner rather than later).
Splinter Twin. I would not have originally pegged this one for this list, but the numbers don’t lie, Twin is still falling.
Iona, Shield of Emeria
Leyline of Sanctity
Primeval Titan
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
Remand
Etched Champion
Bitterblossom
All is Dust (remember, Eldrazi are coming).

I know this is an extensive list, but I’m trying to be as complete as possible. I expect all of these to bottom out in the next few weeks to months, but the main thing I want you take away from this list is that these are still staples. They’re going to fall lower and for a long time we’re going to take for granted that’s there’s enough of them to go around. But before you know it, it’s going to be 2016 and these are going to pull a Deceiver Exarch on us and shoot back up in price.

The Long-Term Only

Next up are the cards I believe are worth setting aside from your boxes, but will take significantly longer to rebound. For instance, Stonehewer Giant would be the poster child for this category in the original Modern Masters, and I think Creakwood Liege takes over that role this time around.

Still, these are worth setting aside. Throw them in the trade binder now rather than part with them for pennies on the dollar, and these will have the opportunity to make you money in a few years. On that note, there’s no rush to acquire these cards, but remember this list when we’re back in the summer doldrums a year from now and you need something to turn Standard stock into.

Creakwood Liege (the casual demand for this is real, even if it’s going to be a long time to truly rebound).
Apocalypse Hydra
Wilt-Leaf Liege
Tezzeret the Seeker
Mirran Crusader
Puppeteer Clique

Commons/Uncommons

You definitely don’t want to forget about these, and I’ve seen a distressing number of these in draft leftovers already. Remember that something like Vines of Vastwood is a common that was super expensive (for a common) before the reprint, and will likely climb back to there before all is said and done. Just make a small box of these and lose it in the closet for a few years.

Vines of Vastwood
Dispatch
Lightning Bolt
Electrolyze
Smash to Smithereens
Expedition Map (I really like this one as an uncommon that sees both Modern and heavy Commander play).
Darksteel Citadel

Special Cases

Foils

Before I wrap up, I want to hit on a few more things in the set, starting with some nice cards to pick up in foil, largely due to their Commander playability.

Expedition Map
Karoo (bounce) lands (Gruul Turf and friends)
Mystic Snake
Vapor Snag
Darksteel Citadel
Lorescale Coatl

Conclusions

Largely, I think there’s still some room to fall for most of the set, and I’m not dying to tear into these in trade just yet. But I hope by breaking the set down in clear categories, I’ve been able to outline my strategy with this set going forward.

Of course, all of this is just my opinion on how to approach the future of Modern Masters 2015. What are your plans?

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Going Mad

Going Mad – So You Want to Sell a Wingmate Roc?

June 10, 2015 Derek Madlem 12 Comments

By: Derek Madlem

If you’ve followed my travels in recent weeks and months, you might have noticed that I’ve been working some events as a buyer for a few fine card retailers. On the other side of the table you notice things and you talk with the other buyers, and you encounter the same issues time and time again. Some people just don’t understand. That’s where I come in, because I’m here to help.

Obviously none of my employers would be thrilled if I was giving away their back end information so I want (need) to make it clear that these numbers are all semi-informed hypotheticals used simply to illustrate a point. Consider this all to be a work of fiction.

The Costs

One of the moments that arises when buying cards is people don’t understand why you can pay 50-60% all day long on $10+ cards but not on a $1-3 cards. The costs, kid. The costs.

There are a lot of things you just don’t think about as a consumer at an event. Most people don’t even consider that many events cost as much or more for three days than most of their local game stores pay for an entire month.

Let’s take a look at some “best case” hypothetical numbers here just to get a frame of reference.

Booth cost at a Grand Prix: let’s say you’re getting a bargain at $3,000 for the weekend. It’s got tables and chairs and probably some table cloths but it’s going to be a small booth.

Subtotal: $3,000

Employees: since you were cheap and opted for the small booth, you only need four guys to run it. You’ll need one guy at the buying station, one guy selling, one guy standing in the middle barking orders, and one guy that’s mostly just dead weight so the rest of you can resent him all weekend. Each of those guys is a Magic groupie so they’ll work for $100 a day, so that’s $100 x 3 x 4 = $1200

Subtotal: $4,200

Food: Did I mention you have to feed those guys? Since you’re in fantasy bargain town, let’s assume you can feed them for $5 per meal per person. $5 a meal at 3 meals per day, times 3 days times 4 people = $180. We’ll go ahead and round that to $200 because of snacks. Mmmm snacks.

Subtotal: $4,400

Lodging: Despite popular belief, the people working a booth at a Grand Prix DO NOT sleep in the event hall; you’ve gotta spring for lodging. That’s going to be four nights at a modest $100 a night because everyone is doubling up in queen beds for the weekend and running water is pretty sweet.

Subtotal: $4,800

Transport: Wow, this is getting expensive fast, luckily the GP was within driving distance so there’s only the $100 in gas to worry about. Never mind that you couldn’t really get to a GP in a vehicle that would get that kind of gas mileage, transport your whole team, AND supplies. Don’t forget parking for the weekend!

Subtotal: $4,900

Let’s go ahead and add another $100 to round it out, gummy bears and cocaine get expensive and hypothetical scenarios just work a lot better with nice round numbers.

Final Booth Subtotal: $5,000 (nice round number)

So in an ideal world where every card was purchased at 50% of retail and every single card is sold, that’s $10,000 in sales JUST TO BREAK EVEN. But realistically most sales are not occurring at events, they’re happening through online stores, brick and mortar stores, or through TCGplayer type sites that charge a percentage. Don’t forget that PayPal wants their cut as well.

So now you’re wondering why I spent 400 words explaining to you that it’s expensive to set up at a large event aren’t you? Don’t worry, we’ll get there eventually.

Some of you might be wondering why you only get offered $1 for that Wingmate Roc when it sells for $3? So take all that information above and keep in mind that you have to sell $10,000 in cards at a 50% margin just to break even. But in reality, there is no such thing as 50% margins.

Business is Expensive

There are more costs. Before you can even sell a card you have to sort, grade, price, list, and stock the cards. Then you start selling them, whether that’s in a brick and mortar store or an online retailer. It also turns out that there is no Magical Christmas Land where you get to sell through 100% of the cards you pick up so there’s always going to be some percentage of toxic inventory squishing that bottom line as well. Did I mention that there are still more costs?

Math!

So let’s look at that Wingmate Roc that you wanted to sell. For demonstration’s sake we’ll say that we paid $1.50 for it. When a store sells that card online they have to pick it, pack it, and ship it in addition to the sorting, grading, pricing, listing, and stocking the cards mentioned above. Even if they have the most efficient system in place for all these steps, you’re still looking at somewhere upwards of 25¢ in labor assuming they’re employing adults in America rather than children on the other side of the world.

According to about three minutes of research on TCG’s website, if you’re using TCG Direct you’re going to pay around 75¢ in handling fees. If you package the cards and send them yourself you’re paying 10% + 30¢ credit card processing fee or about 60¢ in total fees; we’ll just ignore the hypothetical customer service scenarios that can eat up your time when the guy on the other end of the envelope is mad because he was planning on getting his Wingmate Roc graded.

For those of you keeping score at home that’s $2.35 – $2.50 cost to sell a Wingmate Roc. Do you know how many of those you need to sell to break even? Let’s get out our calculators!

$10,000 divided by 50¢ is going to take selling 20,000 cards just to break even on that one event. That’s assuming you don’t have any other costs throughout the month.

I did a little bit of research and I was able to determine that there are remarkably few successful businesses built on the premise of “breaking even” every month, so we’d probably need to sell a few more than that if we wanted to be profitable.

Oh did I mention the plethora of other miscellaneous supplies needed?

Display cases
Things to write with / on
Clipboards
Sleeves
Rock star sunglasses
Boxes
Banners
Display boards of some kind
Extension cords
Computers
Portable internet connection
Those sweet custom buy mats you see at every vendor
Branded attire
Travel crates / suitcases / what have you

As you can see, there is not a lot money being made on Wingmate Rocs, but retailers are often “forced” to carry the entire line so that you can get all of your shopping done in one stop.

Assumption of Risk

This is a concept that’s absolutely lost on most people that sell cards. When a vendor is buying a card from you, they are also taking on significant risk. Magic cards are not something that people need to live, like water and food. The markets can be very fickle and when a card drops in value, whoever is left holding them is the loser.

When your Wingmate Rocs dropped from $7 to $3, you “lost” $16 on a playset. But if a store is carrying significant inventory of that card, say ten or more playsets, the loss shoots up into the hundreds of dollars.

When you sell cards to a vendor, they are betting that they can sell enough of those cards fast enough to recoup their investment and just hoping that the rest sell eventually. This is that toxic inventory that I mentioned previously. A card that’s not selling is just money that’s tied up and can’t be used to further grow a business, and it’s certainly not anything resembling profit. This toxic inventory factors into that bottom line just as much as the 30¢ credit processing fee on TCGplayer.

Unintended Consequences

One of the neat things that happens in doing thought exercises like this one is that you occasionally have a couple of “AH HA!” moments in the process and you make connections that you might not have made before.

For the last few years there’s been an “event horizon” for the prices on Standard cards. As cards approached that $3-4 mark they often quickly fell into bulk status and I think this might be much to do with the realities of selling a $3 card these days. Great examples in current Standard of cards that couldn’t escape the gravitational pull of a money sucking black hole are Mantis Rider, Surrak, the Hunt Caller, and Sidisi, Undead Vizier. All of these cards were worth $6+ at one point and then crept down to that event horizon and sucked into the cosmic abyss.

This theory would also explain the opposite effect, which would be the price of uncommons like Stoke the Flames commonly getting pushed up into the $4 range. If it’s going to take an offer of $1 to get a good playable uncommon out of a binder, then selling it for $4 is almost required at that point. As vendor you’re pretty much expected to have at least some of the current formats hottest uncommons, so to carry them you pretty much just have to ramp them up to $4.

What Did We Learn Today?

Well kids, we learned why vendors have to offer you the prices they do on low-cost cards like Wingmate Roc. It’s not just them trying to rip you off, it’s just an economic reality of doing business. The alternative of course is that we give up Grand Prix events all together and just go back to playing locally. You did know that all of these venues are essentially subsidized by the vendors right? Why else would a TO let in vendors other than themselves?

The other thing to consider going forward is that with the absence of PTQs, there are going to be a lot less “low cost” events for vendors to set up at. It’s a lot easier to show up and pay 50-60% on cards when your table only costs $500 to setup and you don’t have to plan on staying over night.

MTGPrice Blog