ProTrader, Sigmund Ausfresser, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Advanced Economics and MTG Finance – Part 2

May 4, 2015 Sigmund Ausfresser 16 Comments

Polling is closed and results are in. I am delighted to report that despite the fact that my article last week was untraditional and lacked money-making insights, the majority of readers commented their desire to read part two! This is an encouraging result for me because I truly have passion for this field of exploration. Combining MTG finance, real life finance (“RL Finance”), and economic theory is a niche area that really invigorates me. Glad I’m not alone.

So without further ado, I’ll dive into the second installment of advanced economics and MTG finance.

Where We Left Off

My recap of last week’s column will be brief. If you wish to explore the full background I encourage you to read the piece in full before proceeding to this one.

In last week’s article I introduced the field of Game Theory and explained why I felt Magic card buyouts were an example of a “game”. Then using certain assumptions I concluded that the outcome of the Magic buyout game is comparable to the typical outcome of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Even though there is a strictly better outcome for the entire population, a non-ideal conclusion is reached due to everyone’s (understandably) selfish motivation to maximize profits.

Despite any efforts we as a community take to combat this phenomenon, I call almost guarantee that the suboptimal outcome will always be reached. Buyouts will continue to occur rapidly leading to a temporary, artificially-high price. This will result in some players overpaying for their copies and other players unable/unwilling to purchase copies at the new, elevated price. A few speculators who bought cheap copies may be able to out some for profit, but the net value across everyone involved isn’t optimal. It would be more favorable if everyone cooperated – purchasing only the copies they needed and encouraging others to do the same – mitigating price spikes and enabling slow, healthy price appreciation.

I used the term “healthy” to describe price appreciation that doesn’t reflect buyouts because gradual, natural price growth is often more sustainable. Many casual cards not dwelt on in Twitter chatter fit this mold. Corbin recently wrote a terrific piece describing why he likes casual play and its effect on finance. This would be one of my favorite aspects; namely the gradual increase in prices driven by natural supply and demand shifts. Avacyn, Angel of Hope comes to mind as a perfect example – the price chart shows a monotonic increase in price over years of time.

On the other hand we have Ragnar, a different kind of casual card that was suddenly bought out on the internet on Tiny Leaders speculation. The result: a $6 card is now a $30 card and players interested in picking this guy up for Tiny Leaders are now stuck between a rock and a hard place. Either pay way too much for a card with very narrow utility or sit on the sidelines and wait.

I don’t think I need to provide any further explanation as to why Avacyn’s price increase will be sustainable and continue further (until she’s reprinted). The jury is still out on Ragnar, however. His price certainly won’t tank – the card is too old and it’s on the Reserved List. But I’m not quite sure players are going to want to pay $30 for him, either. There are certainly other Bant options for Tiny Leaders. I suspect his price drops back down to the $20 range in the next couple weeks, as copies slowly trickle back into the market.

If you want a recommendation here, go buy Jenara, Asura of War. She’s a far better Bant general for Tiny Leaders and she hasn’t been forcibly bought out. Instead, the Bant angel continues to steadily appreciate in price. Barring reprint, she will continue to become more and more expensive as players and angel collectors alike seek out their copy. No one is buying this card out, so you can trust that the higher price is sustainable.

Application 2: Where You Buy

Let’s assume for a moment that you want to play the buyout game. You’ve decided you like the Ragnar spec because there are just so few copies in existence and the artwork is too cool to ignore. You notice the buyout is happening and you decide to act.

What do you do next? Likely you navigate to a well-known website like TCG Player or eBay and buy some copies…you and everyone else. Motivations for using these large sites vary. Some like the large selection and array of sellers. Others simply like TCG Player because they want their purchases to move the market (via mtgstocks.com).

But do you know what happens when many people flock to the same location to purchase their copies of a card? In Prisoner’s Dilemma style, people steal cards out of each other’s cart and cause that artificial price spike. Latecomers could potentially blindly overpay for their copies because of their assumptions that TCG Player (or eBay) is the best place to buy cards. Star City Games, Channel Fireball, and other major retailers also sell out quickly during these buyouts, but at least they go “out of stock” so you don’t end up overpaying.

This is where an advanced economic analysis could be beneficial. Because everyone is prone to “defect” and purchase many copies of a card during a buy out, the price artificially jumps. But do you ever notice that TCG Player is often where a card’s price jumps first? It’s naturally one of the first places most people go.

It’s comparable to a mad dash through a doorway into a room – everyone pushes and shoves their way through, causing significant discomfort with a few unhappy stragglers in the back. What would happen if some people would stop shoving in the largest, most heavily used doorway and instead walked around to the side doors? Those side doors would have far less traffic, making the experience much more enjoyable and less competitive.

Moving back to MTG, this would be comparable to purchasing a hot card from a less-popular website. How many times have you visited ABU Games upon discovery of a new buyout taking place (like during a Pro Tour)? How many people have shopped from Ideal808.com before? Who first visits Cardshark.com, Amazon.com or even Coolstuffinc.com before trying eBay and TCG Player?

I find I have the highest success buying from sites that do NOT use TCG Player as an alternate way to sell cards. Channel Fireball usually sells out with the rest of them because they also sell on eBay. The same is true for Troll and Toad. But ABU Games doesn’t list many cards on eBay or TCG Player, so they often have cards in stock hours or even days after a buyout. Because everyone is so fixated on the most popular sites, these smaller players have copies that remain after a buyout. By walking into the metaphorical room through a less popular side door, you can still get inside the room without any jostling. This is truly the optimal outcome.

And this is the key application of the Prisoner’s Dilemma to MTG Finance. It was my primary motivation for writing on this subject in the first place. By “cooperating” and visiting diverse sites when purchasing cards we can mitigate artificial hype and price spikes. What’s more, we’re more likely to grab the copies we want near the “old” price!

Knowledge is Power

You may be left wondering if this is truly practical advice. You may be thinking “this sounds logical in theory, but it would never work in practice.”

I have plenty of examples that prove that application of this knowledge can lead to profits. I’ll share three.

Example 1) A few weeks ago there was a mad dash on Foil Teferi’s Response. The card was bought out all over the internet, and the only copies still available for sale on TCG Player and eBay were in the $20 range. I sifted through various sites hoping to find copies at the “old” price. I was in luck.

ABU Games still had a few copies for sale, and although they were all played the price was too good to pass up. I pulled the trigger.

Was I able to out these for profit? Indeed. I sold one copy to a friend on Twitter and two copies on eBay. But do you want to know the best out for the remaining copies? I buy listed them right back to ABU Games again…for twice what I paid them!

Example 2) I suppose I should have seen Ragnar’s buyout coming, because it mirrors the earlier buyout of Tetsuo Umezawa almost perfectly.

The Legends rare suddenly jumped from $20 to $40 and then $50, likely due to more Tiny Leaders speculation. Rather than rush to TCG Player and buy copies there, I first went to one of my favorite go-to sites: Card Shark. I was in luck.

I grabbed these two copies the day after the card already spiked and proceeded to sell them on eBay as soon as they arrived. Shopping at less popular sites led to easy profit.

Example 3) The jury is still out on my most recent example, but I am confident this will pay out. Every day I visit mtgstocks.com to view the most active price movers in Magic. And recently the site added a new, foil Interests page. Last week’s foil Interests page looked like this:

Noticing the sudden jump in foil Pride of the Clouds and foil Fumiko the Lowblood, I did my usual, thorough search. Once again I struck gold.

It seems yet again ABU Games was forgotten in these buyouts, allowing me to casually visit the site, add copies to my cart, and make the purchase. I am confident I will be able to sell these for profit in the near future – if anything, ABU Games may up their buy price enough so that I can sell these back to them again.

Wrapping It Up

Game Theory is a powerful field. It predicts so many phenomena in real life, such as nuclear arms races and advertising. It predicts defection when cooperation would be the optimal strategy. Magic: the Gathering finance is not immune to the theory. Buy outs in particular are exercises of the Prisoner’s Dilemma, whereby people rush to buy copies from popular sites, causing unnecessary price jumps. Those too late to the game either overpay for their copies or sit on the sideline frustrated with their inaction.

But there is one way we can “cooperate” and avoid the hassle of the buyout. By searching less popular sites, we are afforded extra time to obtain our copies without the mad dash for profits. Let everyone else rush through the main doorway, causing jams and headaches. We know there are plenty of side doors with no line, allowing us to pull up a chair and watch the circus that ensues. And even if the price jump doesn’t stick, at least you’ve paid the “old” price rather than the rapidly rising buyout price. And who knows? Maybe a buyout will happen again, giving you the chance to move your copies. After all, selling into the hype is definitely more fun and more profitable than buying into it.

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

It’s only a matter of time before Lady Evangela gets the Ragnar / Tetsuo treatment. She’s another old-school Reserved List general option for Tiny Leaders. But for now, she’s not attracting as much attention. SCG still has a few in stock: NM at $12.99 and SP at $11.99. Watch this one closely for potential movement.
Engineered Explosives has really been hot lately. There’s now only 1 copy in stock across the two printings: copies from Fifth Dawn are $10.49 and Modern Masters are $9.69. These will both increase soon, I suspect.
Here’s a penny stock worth keeping an eye on: Retract, from Darksteel. The card is getting attention in some Modern brews. And although I haven’t seen the card in action yet, I did note that Star City Games is out of stock. NM copies are listed at $0.49 and foils at $2.99, but I suspect both numbers to rise soon.

Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin

What’s on the Reserved List – Legends Edition

May 4, 2015 Jared Yost 3 Comments

Legends has always been a fascinating set full of unique cards. It is certainly a set that we should keep our eyes on for card price movements. The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Invoke Prejudice, Angus Mackenzie, In the Eye of Chaos, and Land Equilibrium have all seen substantial gains over the past few years. For some of them, these gains are only going to be greater as the years go on because they will become harder and harder to find.

Recently there has been buzz around cards from Legends that have been gaining steam recently. Cards that have started seeing gains include the likes of Ragnar, Eureka, Divine Intervention, Lady Evangela, and Telekinesis. Well gee, what gives here? Sure, we could attribute some this movement to Tiny Leaders speculation since they are old, hard to find cards that can fill niche roles in the format. However, why are cards like Eureka and Divine Intervention gaining steam these days?

Simply, the Reserve List.

Today, I’m going to throw all of the cards from Legends on the Reserve List at you and provide some quick commentary on where I think its future will price will end up. This will cover everything from Tabernacle to Wood Elemental. Some of the areas of interest I’ll be looking for are:

Has this card’s effect been replicated in any way?
- Follow up – Has this card’s effect already been outclassed by recent cards?
What formats will the card be played in?
Does the card have a good probability of being outclassed in the future?

With those questions in mind let’s take a look at some of our Reserve List friends from Legends. One thing to keep in mind is when I say a card will “never be created again in a similar fashion,” I’m referring to Wizards’ modern design policies for how they want Magic to be created. Some examples includes watering down counterspells, making sure removal isn’t too efficient and “Staxx effects” that destroy lands, prevent spells from being cast or can easily lock the game down on a significantly early turn.

The List

Card	Comments
The Abyss	Our list starts out with one of the most expensive cards from Legends. The Abyss is something that will never be created again in a similar fashion. Imagine casting this on turn two with a Dark Ritual! Oh, the humanity. This is the definition of a Staxx effect that will never return. Magus of the Abyss is easy to remove and can actually kill itself without other creatures on your side of the board (which is why it’s a bulk rare) and I believe that is the closest we’ll ever get to seeing The Abyss’ power again. Well, Call to the Grave is pretty close but does cost one mana more! This bodes well for the card’s future price, as it is set to only go up over time. This is a slow gainer though – the price hasn’t even moved in the past four years. It will be some time before this card goes up again because it has limited use in Constructed Magic, which relegates it to the kitchen tables and Commander games. Certainly a card to keep your eye on if you want to pick up something neat for your black Commander deck.
Acid Rain	WELL, if green ever does become the dominant color of Magic in fifty years, this could be as insane as Boil!…. This card already being at $20 is pretty high for its limited utility. Color hosers are only as good in Constructed as the metagame, and for eternal formats blue will always be king which relegates cheap, massive Forest killing to the side. Cool art but this card has been outclassed by other blue things over the years. Sure, you can troll your Commander group with this if they have a particular knack for dual lands the color blue in general, though otherwise this will be a slooooooow gainer over the years.
Adun Oakenshield	Depending on where you look, Adun is anywhere from $40 to $50 or more. This card took a particular hard spike back in April 2013 because someone recognized that it is pretty killer in Commander as a general. Tiny Leaders could add future value to Adun so he is something to watch out for in the future even at the current price.
Al-abara’s Carpet	This card is actually pretty insane, barring that you play it early enough in a Commander game and your opponent isn’t playing a ton of flyers. I would say at $5 the “poor man’s Moat” is pretty cheap for the reserved list and has a powerful effect. Certainly blows Scarecrow out of the water!
Alchor’s Tomb	This is an example of a “do nothing” card – it costs a ton of mana for an effect that does nothing to hamper your opponent or increase your own board position without heavy outside support. The only reason this card is $3 is because it is on the list. This is the first card we’ve encountered that is RSB – reserve list bulk. Avoid.
All Hallow’s Eve	One mana short of being in Tiny Leaders, this card could have fit right in with Time Spiral block since the scream counters are basically the same as the Suspend mechanic. The inspiration for Twilight’s Call, Living Death, and Living End, the card has power even if it is delayed. At $40, it is a pricier card that probably will get outclassed in the future as Living End has a Modern deck based around it and is still only $6. Though neat, probably better to avoid if you’re looking for quicker gains.
Angus Mackenzie	With Commander and Tiny Leaders demand, Angus has been gaining steadily over the past several years and has no signs of stopping. A great general and powerful static effect, I can only see him growing more steadily as the years go on. One thing to keep in mind is that Angus’ effect might be outclassed in the future, though the creature would probably cost much more mana for a similar effect.
Bartel Runeaxe	Legendary, yet sadly has been severely outclassed over the years by creature creep. RSB.
Boris Devilboon	Boris does seem like he good be good, but he is competing with similar cards like Sek’Kura, Deathkeeper in the modern Magic landscape. Looking closer, he has weak stats for his mana cost and the activated ability is costly as well. RSB.
Caverns of Despair	Similar to Al-abara’s Carpet, this card has a decently powerful effect since it gives red access to something that these days it would never receive. It’s pretty nice for control decks since it gives them another tool to stave off creatures. Though we look to Crawlspace as the de facto way to control attacks, this card also affects blocking creatures which is something to note. I can see it being outclassed in the future, though not in the color red. Keep an eye on this one moving forward.
Chains of Mephistopheles	Chains is already crazy expensive, however it could get even more expensive as time goes on. It is a card that sees niche play in Legacy and is certainly cube and Commander worthy. The price explosion I believe is pretty much over, since the card has gone from $50 to $350 in the space of three years or so. I would still expect small, marginal gains from Chains over the next few years.
Cleanse	A Wrath of God for only black creatures, this card might see play in Legacy one day though I highly doubt it. It’s on the cheaper end at $9 but, again, where is it going to see play? It is too narrow to have any applications in constructed environments 95% of the time. Not exactly RSB yet too expensive for formats like Legacy.
Disharmony	A strictly worse Grab the Reins, this card is another to be avoided since it has been outclassed. RSB.
Divine Intervention	Even though this card says the game ends in a draw, I think we can all agree that it you get this to go off in a game of Commander that you’re the real winner. A neat card without any near comparisons other than the “you win the game” cycle of enchantments from Judgment, I could see this card gaining traction over time as players try to jam it into Commander as a fun way to end the game. A very slow gainer financially.
Elder Spawn	Terrible creature, has been outclassed over the years. RSB.
Eureka	A wild and crazy card that fits right in with a game of Commander, this card has massive casual appeal since it allows you to play all those Eldrazi and planeswalkers from your hand for free! Pretty neat! I believe I have also seen this card in a Legacy deck at some point (can’t remember which exactly) so it could pop up again in eternal formats if Hypergenesis-type decks become good again. A slow gainer, but could spike if featured in a Legacy deck at some point.
Falling Star	Yeah, this card is back when Wizards thought Chaos Orb was cool… Yeah, turns out people don’t like flipping their cards physically while playing with them. Not something you want to pick up for anything, really. RSB.
Field of Dreams	OK, so black gets The Abyss and blue gets… this? Wow, can’t believe blue got the shaft here though I guess sometimes the power needs to shift to other colors (except green, of course – this is back when green was terrible). Avoid, has been outclassed over the years. RSB.
Firestorm Phoenix	We’ve gotten several better phoenixs over the years, avoid. RSB.
Forethought Amulet	The effect is way too narrow to be good, even with future cards added. Also, an upkeep of three mana to keep in play? Yeah, no thanks. RSB.
Gosta Dirk	Legendary, but sadly has been severely outclassed over the years by creature creep. RSB.
Gravity Sphere	Now here’s a card that has potential! Gravity Sphere is great at punishing blue players and similar by taking away flying. This card would fit right in with a tokens deck these days and has the added bonus of always grounding future insane flyers that Wizards decides to print. Also, Tiny Leaders relevant! Keep an eye out on this card moving forward.
Gwendlyn Di Corci	Gwendlyn is… ok. She has decent stats, however the mana cost is atrocious and the ability is sub-par at best. At $25 I don’t see how this becomes more expensive as time goes on and could easily be outclassed by future creature creep in Commander pre-cons and such.
Halfdane	Though neat, this card is strictly a casual-only card as it the effect is decent yet not game breaking enough most of the time. You would have to find a way to give Halfdane other abilities like flying to make it really good. I could see this getting outclassed by similar clone effects, especially for the mana cost, however Halfdane is under $10 and could go up over the years if Shapeshifters become a thing as a tribe.
Hazezon Tamar	Though slow, Hazezon is certainly powerful if you can get him to stick. I believe that he is a slightly worse Avenger of Zendikar that you can play as a general. I think this card is rare enough to maintain the current price but will need a ton of support from future sets if it ever is going to go higher than $45.
Hellfire	Hellfire is really strong however a dangerous card in formats like Commander. Yes, in a mono-black deck this can be incredible but you are risking doing a ton of damage to yourself. Lifelink and lifegain are possibilities, though. At $16 this is one of the cheaper Legends cards and has potential in the future if mass removal continues to be printed at higher converted mana costs.
Imprison	Terrible card, easily outclassed by other black removal. RSB.
In the Eye of Chaos	This card was seeing some play as a sideboard card in Legacy decks as a way to help stabilize after maintaining board control. It is also pretty nice in creature based Commander or Tiny Leaders decks, as it prevents the opponent from easily casting instants and sorceries to catch up. This is one to look out for the in the future, as it has already started climbing up in price and continues to climb as more players become aware of it.
Infinite Authority	Marginal effect for a crazy mana cost, and is an aura to boot. RSB.
Invoke Prejudice	Similar to In the Eye of Chaos, Invoke Prejudice is absurdly powerful in casual mono-blue decks. It makes all their creatures cost double the mana and can easily lock opponents out of the game. Even at a cost of quad-blue, the card has reached heights of $130. It does seem to be stabilizing here, and I don’t expect another huge increase for some time. Expect slow gains for this card.
Jacques le Vert	As a general, this guy is marginal but certainly can be built around with such tools as Assault Formation to get more damage in. $5 is on the cheaper end of Legends cards, and with more support I could see a substantial price increase for Jacques.
Jovial Evil	I guess you could kill someone playing a white weenie deck randomly with this card however the application is super narrow outside of this interaction. RSB.
Knowledge Vault	Not that great – according to ME III this card should have only been an uncommon. RSB.
Kobold Overlord	Thank you Prossh for turning this into a $15 card! Could it go higher? Possibly, but unlikely in the near future unless somehow more Kobold support is printed…
Lady Caleria	Way too expensive for the stats and effect. RSB.
Lady Evangela	One of the recent cards to spike in price, my guess is this was Tiny Leaders speculation. I’m somewhat doubtful as to its application though since removal is prevalent in the format and she is only a 1/2… Not sure I like it at $15.
Land Equilibrium	Wow, this card is the definition of unfun. We will never see a card like this in Magic’s future since it can so easily prevent your opponent from executing their game plan if you’re close on land counts. The card has seen substantial gains over the past few years due to players realizing how strange and power this enchantment can be, though I doubt it will see these types of gains again in the near future.
Life Matrix	Terrible, been outclassed by many other cards. RSB.
Lifeblood	Color hosers really shouldn’t be rare… sigh. This card is powerful but again has narrow applications, so RSB.
Living Plane	This card has some “fun” interactions with ping effects and other cards that can do one damage several times in one turn. We’re not likely to see cards like this again, so like Land Equilibrium this will go up over time though its bound to be a slow gainer (even after seeing a steady increase in price since three years ago). Planar Chaos has shown us that we can get similar effects in the future (Life and Limb).
Livonya Silone	Hmm, this card is actually pretty solid since Legendary lands are played pretty often in Commander. This card allows you to play a red/green general that is decent at blocking and can sometimes get in for some damage. At $5, its pretty cheap but again could be easily outclassed in the future. Still, this is a card to watch and see if the future makes it better or worse.
Mana Matrix	This is a pretty decent artifact in the right deck, and actually makes all of those big, splashy instants and sorceries Wizards has been pumping out somewhat castable! The card’s price has been pretty steady historically, so eventually we will be in for an increase once some really good sorcery / instant support is introduced.
Master of the Hunt	Master of the Wild Hunt is much better. RSB.
Mirror Universe	Cool card with a unique ability. This card has a lot of casual love, which has kept it over $40 for a long time. Similar to Mana Matrix, this card’s price hasn’t moved in some time and could be due for a correction eventually. Though Soul Conduit represents more repeatable switching (and other Commander shenanigans) why not play both in the same deck?
Moat	One of the big daddies of Legends with Tabernacle, Moat is a card that is never going to be going down in price as time goes on. The effect is way too powerful to see print again (expect in crappy creature form) and players know this. It is even somewhat Legacy playable from time to time in the right deck. Expect slow increases over the years.
Mold Demon	So bad, oh so bad… RSB.
Nether Void	Similar to The Abyss, Nether Void is another black enchantment that basically locks the game down after it is cast. Trying to cast spells after this comes down is going to be pretty difficult, and again Wizards’ policies these days are to avoid Staxx cards like this that prevent players from playing the game. The card has seen some growth over the years, since it is occasionally seen in Legacy (or maybe even Vintage) decks however I would guess Commander drives much of the card’s price. Expect slow increases to continue
North Star	Do nothing card, avoid. RSB.
Nova Pentacle	Too expensive for the effect, will never see play even in slow formats like Commander. RSB.
Pixie Queen	Green giving creatures flying is cool. Too bad it costs seven mana is tacked on to a 1/1 boy. Way too overcosted for the effect. RSB.
Planar Gate	Like Mana Matrix but for creatures. This card hasn’t moved much in quite a while so I think it is up for a price correction as players look to play more artifacts that reduce the cost of creature spells.
Quarum Trench Gnomes	This is a really bad color hoser… RSB.
Ragnar	The other Legends card to spike recently, Ragnar could actually be pretty decent in Tiny Leaders since he allows regeneration to happen in a format full of removal. Again, like Lady Evangela the price is pretty overcosted for the stats. I guess in Tiny Leaders you take what you can get. I expect the price to settle down a bit as more cards are introduced to Tiny Leaders (aka power creep happens).
Ramses Overdark	Bad, narrow creature. RSB.
Rapid Fire	Expensive instant with marginal abilities. RSB.
Rasputin Dreamweaver	This guy makes an awesome Commander because he can protect himself and make future cards you play cheaper with the dream counters. Plus, he can add dream counters to himself as well! Rasputin has gone up in price over time due to this and I expect that climb to continue albeit slowly.
Reverberation	Too narrow of an effect for a rare. RSB.
Ring of Immortals	Too narrow of an effect and overcosted. RSB.
Rohgahh of Kher Keep	Combos well with Prossh, which should keep the price steady for a while. I believe the price did spike when the Commander 2013 decks were released but quickly went back down. Certainly a card to keep an eye out for once Prossh himself starts increasing in price – you can bet this card will follow suit!
Spinal Villain	Could be an interesting sideboard option for Tiny Leaders or even Legacy, however being a 1/2 is definitely not that great. This is one of the stronger color hosers in the set and should be watched in case blue creature decks (like Merfolk) start dominating Legacy. However, due to the combo nature of the format I don’t really see that happening.
Spiritual Sanctuary	Very bad card in general, should never have been a rare. RSB.
Storm World	For one mana, I think this card deserves a second look. It’s kind of like The Rack except you can only have one of them in play. For Commander, these types of restrictions don’t matter so that isn’t really a strike against it. For black/red discard decks, this card can do some heavy lifting for only one mana. I think at $5 this is one enchantment to keep an eye out for.
Sword of the Ages	Certainly an interesting effect, though it requires you to kill practically all of your creatures. Decent in 1v1, however in Commander it’s pretty bad and unfortunately that is where this card is relegated. RSB.
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale	Like our friend Moat, Tabernacle is all $$$ and will continue to be collected over the years as the best card from Legends. A slow, steady gainer for sure but the most solid bet for a card that will maintain value from the Legends set.
Telekinesis	This card has always been around $8, and my thinking is that this offers Tiny Leaders blue decks something to do while they are setting up their combo (or whatever they’re doing). I expect we’ll get better creature removal in blue as the years go on, however the effect is unique and might see an uptick in price if Tiny Leaders gains traction.
Tetsuo Umezawa	Again, a Tiny Leaders increase that happened recently has made this card go from $22 to $40 this year. Unlike other Tiny Leaders specs from this set, Tetsuo is actually somewhat powerful in that he can kill tapped creatures every turn like Royal Assassin. Yet, I’m not sure it can go higher than $40 for the time being, and could even start dropping in price if more Tiny Commanders are printed in Grixis colors.
Thunder Spirit	The inspiration for Thunder Totem, we have a similar card in Sky Spirit that is only white mana. I wouldn’t expect Thunder Spirit to be breaking any formats if Sky Spirit is only $0.20.
Tuknir Deathlock	Hmm, a flying 2/2 in G/R? Interesting… and it can also pump creatures +2/+2 until end of turn? Yes, this is interesting… The question is though, is it good enough for Commander? Surprisingly, that answer could be yes since this card is so weird. At $3.50, this is one of the cheaper cards from the set and the effect is definitely unique for G/R.
Typhoon	Pretty bad in eternal formats, even as a color hoser. RSB.
Ur-Drago	Really bad, overcosted creature. RSB.
Willow Satyr	This card is pretty cool and offers green a Control Magic effect that is rarely seen in that slice of the color pie. In Commander, this card is great because you can randomly steal other people’s generals since you’re playing green and no one would expect this! At $15 that is pretty cheap for a powerful effect.
Wood Elemental	Utter garbage. I believe that this card is so bad that it actually has made several official Top 10 Worst Magic Cards lists. RSB to the max.

Conclusions

OK, based on that wall of text what are my top picks from Legends that might be undervalued? They are:

All of these cards are in the $5-$15 range, which is fairly cheap for Reserve List cards, and will never be printed again. They all have decent effects that get better over time as more cards are introduced to the card pool. They all interact fairly well in Commander, and though aren’t the best at what they do anymore they still provide extra ‘similar effect’ copies of cards that you can use if you’re looking for more ways to create redundancy in a deck.

Of course, we all know what the solid cards of Legends are (just check out the higher priced cards at the MTGPrice page for top Legends cards) but what are you guys tracking from Legends, if anything? Are there any undervalued reserve list cards that I just glossed over that you might think have potential? Let me know what you think in the comments!

ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: The Meta Report

May 2, 2015 Guo Heng Chin 5 Comments

By Guo Heng

Hello and welcome to the first instalment of The Meta Report, a weekly column dedicated to tracking the evolution of the metagame and its financial impact.

Every week, this column would crunch the numbers for both Magic Online and paper (which shall henceforth be referred to as ‘in real life’ or ‘IRL’) tournaments to observe the shift in the metagame and highlight emergent archetypes their potential financial impact. The goal of this column is to make it easy you keep a finger on the beating pulse of the Standard metagame by amassing tournament results over the past week in a single article.

We may be living in another golden age of Standard. Since Dragons of Tarkir were injected into the metagame, we have seen a diverse set of viable competitive archetypes and as of last weekend, we are still seeing new twists on existing archetypes.

The Metagame for 25 April – 1 May

This week’s The Meta Report will only analyse data from IRL tournaments. The first set of RPTQs took place last weekend, and counting the StarCityGames Open held at Cleveland, we have a whooping 248 top 8 decks to sift through to find the pulse of Standard, as the table below shows.

	Total (Archetype)
Esper Dragons	54
Mono Red	52
Abzan Aggro	29
Abzan Control/Midrange	19
Ojutai Bant Megamorph	16
RG Dragons	11
Abzan Megamorph	9
Sidisi Megamorph Whip	6
GW Megamorph Company	6
Jeskai Tokens	4
Jeskai Aggro	3
Abzan Rally	3
GW Devotion	3
GR Devotion	3
Bant Heroic	3
Chromantiflayer	2
GW Devotion (Megamorph)	2
Temur Dragons	2
Abzan Whip	2
RB Dragons	2
GR Bees	2
UW Midrange	1
Mardu Planeswalkers	1
Abzan Atarka	1
Mardu Midrange	1
UB Dragons	1
Mardu Aggro	1
Temur Midrange	1
Temur Control	1
UB Control	1
Naya Dragons	1
Mono Blue Dragon Control	1
Sidisi Whip	1
BG Megamorph	1
UG Megamorph Company	1
Jeskai Dragons	1

Esper Dragons remained the most played deck, making up of 22% of the decks that made top 8 at the RPTQs. Most lists stayed close to the stock list that Alexander Hayne took down Grand Prix Krakow with. Esper Dragons was one of the best performing decks in the Standard portion of Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir and Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa touted it as one of of the best deck he has played at a Pro Tour for a very long time. It is unsurprising that Esper Dragons still was the most played deck at the RPTQs even though the deck’s worse matchup was the second most popular deck last weekend.

Right at the heels of Esper Dragons was Mono Red, with 21% of the top 8 decks being Mono Red. It is unusual to see this level of Mono Red saturation at a medium-to-high level competitive event. Perhaps Mono Red’s success hinged on the fact that its natural prey, Esper Dragons, was the most played deck.

At 12% of the top 8 metagame, the third most played deck in the top 8 of the RPTQs was Abzan Aggro, a deck that mostly resembled its pre-Dragons of Tarkir form save for the addition of Dromoka’s Command. Abzan Control occupied 8% of the top 8 metagame as the fourth most played deck.

Ojutai Bant Megamorph, a deck which Craig Wescoe piloted to an impressive 8-2 finish at Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir three weeks back and which Sam Pardee made the top 8 of Grand Prix Krakow with two weekends ago, was the fifth most played deck in the top 8 of the RPTQs, comprising of 6% of the top 8 metagame. I have added ‘Megamorph’ to the deck’s name as it birthed the synergy that was assimilated into multiple existing archetypes.

The Megamorphs

The RPTQs saw a number of existing archetypes slotting in four Deathmist Raptor and three to four Den Protector to exploit their synergy which was first found in Ojutai Bant Megamorph. Abzan Aggro builds incorporating the Megamorph synergy (called Abzan Megamorph) was the 7th most prevalent deck at the RPTQs. The Sidisi Whip decks that were dominating prior to Fate Reforged‘s release also absorbed Den Protector and Deathmist Raptor and those builds performed better than non-Megamorph Sidisi Whip builds at the RPTQs. Last week also saw Green-White Aggro decks adopting the Megamorph synergy.

There is a good chance we would see an increase in the number of decks running the Deathmist Raptor and Den Protector ‘combo’ this week. Their synergy imbues green-based decks with added resiliency against Esper Dragons, the most popular deck, and green-based decks have a good matchup against Mono Red, the second most prevalent deck.

The raptor was flattened again and again, yet it came back to life incessantly.

As of writing, Deathmist Raptor is the second most expensive Dragons of Tarkir card on Magic Online, which speaks volume about the popularity of the Megamorph synergy in the online metagame. The online metagame could be a precursor to what we are going to see this week.

Deathmist Raptor has a relatively low spread of 37%, indicating that the demand for Deathmist Raptor is strong and we are unlikely to see Deathmist Raptor’s price drop in the short run. There is a possibility that Deathmist Raptor could increase in price. My call for Deathmist Raptor is a hold.

They live in dens? — The Temur lives in dens?

Den Protector, the other half of the synergy, spiked during Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir and her price remained high presumably on the back of the Megamorph synergy’s increasing popularity. With a 48% spread, I do not think Den Protector will be able to protect her current price above $5 for long even if the Megamorph synergy becomes widespread. Dragons of Tarkir redemption is about to hit the market in a week or two (Dragons of Tarkir redemption starts 6 May), bumping up the set’s supply and rares rarely hold their price against such force. My call for Den Protector is a solid sell.

Warden of the North Abzan

Is he guarding a Weirwood tree? — First tree as in Weirwood tree?

Warden of the First Tree is a mythic from a small set that has been seeing play in multiple copies in Abzan Aggro builds, but he commands a price tag of just $4.52, even though Abzan Aggro was the third most played deck in the RPTQ top 8s last weekend. I am tempted to say that he is undervalued at the moment, but we have yet to hit peak supply for Fate Reforged, and his 54% spread indicates otherwise. Perhaps the fact that the Warden only has one home at the moment severely limits his demand. I am giving the Warden a hold call.

Speaking of Abzan, the RPTQs saw a small number of Abzan Rally, a graveyard-based deck that aims to populate its graveyard as fast as possible before casting a Rally the Ancestors to bring back Siege Rhinos and Gray Merchant of Asphodels for a game-ending life swing. Abzan Rally is pretty much Dredge in the current Standard, where there is a surprising lack of graveyard hate despite the number of graveyard-reliant strategies.

Rally the Ancestors is bulk and most vendors are not even buying it. Three Abzan Rally decks made the top 8 of the RPTQs in three different mid-sized RPTQs (55 – 75 players), although none of them made it to the semifinals. I do not know what are the odds of Abzan Rally breaking into tier one, as I have only played against that deck once (I lost), but it may be worth picking up a couple of Rally the Ancestors as throw-ins to your trades. I am not even sure if I would buy them. I am giving Rally the Ancestors a ‘trade throw-in’ call.

Time to Collect?

Are you collecting these? — Are you collecting these yet?

Collected Company was one of the most hyped-up Dragons of Tarkir rares to the point where it drove up the price of Congregation at Dawn fourfold, on the speculation that Collected Company could combo with Congregation at Dawn in Modern (fellow MTGPrice writer, Derek Madlem took that combo for a spin and apparently it was clunky bad).

It turns out that Standard may be the more suitable home for Collected Company. Seven Collected Company aggro decks (six Green-White, one Green-Blue) made the top 8 of last weekend’s RPTQs and six of them qualified their pilots for the Pro Tour.

After Hall of Famer Bram Snapvangers went 8-2 in the constructed portion of the Pro Tour with a Green-White Aggro build sporting four mainboard Collected Company, Collected Company made no appearance in IRL events until last weekend. Connor Bowman’s Abzan Aggro which finished in the top 8 of StarCityGames Cleveland ran four Collected Company in the main. And of course, the seven Green-based aggro decks that made top 8 of the RPTQs as mentioned above.

There is a good chance that the Standard metagame would shift towards Collected Company decks in the following weeks. Collected Company is terrific against Esper Dragons, creating you an instant board position after a board wipe. Green-based aggro decks have a good matchup against Mono Red on the virtue of having larger low-curve creatures. Best of all decks running Collected Company could assimilate the Deathmist Raptor and Den Protector synergy.

Collected Company’s price has been stubbornly remaining at the high end of $4 since Dragons of Tarkir’s release. Collected Company currently has a 47% spread, and with redemption hitting in a I am not sure how much more growth Collected Company could see. Unlike Den Protector, I would hold on to my Collected Company right now. While the synergy between Collected Company and Congregation at Dawn is too clunky, Collected Company has been seeing some play in Modern. It was found as a playset in a Melira deck which made top 8 of a 106-player tournament and Modern Zoo has been experimenting with it.

Deathmist Raptor, Den Protector and Collected Company are cards that are exceedingly well positioned in the meta at the moment, and there is a good chance that next week’s metagame would contain more copies of those cards.

Casual Fridays

Eyeing Rotation

May 1, 2015 Cliff Daigle 10 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

This is one of my favorite times of year as a casual financier, because people are starting to plan ahead for rotation in the fall. It’s really not that far off, though we do have a couple of sets to go before Theros block and M15 bid farewell to Standard.

Because people plan ahead more, there’s less of a problem with prices cratering at rotation than there used to be. It’s difficult to get full value on Theros block cards right now, and while I’m not buying anything yet, I’m planning for some things becoming available.

Theros

Thoughtseize – It’s down to $20 from its pre-reprint high of $80. Thoughtseize is one of the most powerful cards around, costing a card, one mana, and two life to rip a plan apart. As a rare in a best-selling fall set, the supply is very large, and the demand is also real in eternal formats.

I’d agree with you if you said that the price is going to go up over time. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was $30 or even $40 within a couple of years. The buy-in and the payoff time is just too high for my small-budget tastes, unfortunately. If it fell to the $12-$15 range, I would be aggressively picking them up. They are just too good.

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion – At $10 and declining ever since her Duel Deck came out, she’s a prime target. Planeswalkers are always going to have a certain appeal, and this one epitomizes what this card type is supposed to do. Good against small creatures, good against big ones, and an ultimate that makes it hard for you to lose.

I’m hoping she drops to the $7 range by September, but I’m happy trading for her at $10 and letting her slowly appreciate. I’m also not going to distinguish much between the Duel Deck foils and the regular Theros ones. Very few people are going to snub the foil and seek the regular.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx – I traded for a half-dozen of these at $8, and even with the recent spike in devotion decks, it’s not even back to $7. This will take a hit as rotation nears and those decks lose a lot of value, so when it gets back to sub-$5 decks that’s when to pick them up for their long-term

The Temples (Triumph, Plenty, Deceit, Mystery) – These are currently at pretty low prices, and I have to say that if they make it to $1 or so, I’ll be snagging them left and right. They are not good enough for most cubes, but they are fantastic in Commander and are unlikely to be reprinted soon. I wouldn’t expect a big turnaround on these, but they are solid and safe pickups.

Born of the Gods

Kiora, the Crashing Wave – It’s always worth looking into cheap Planeswalkers. Kiora has the Duel Deck edition going on, and that’s going to keep a cap on her price for a while. Picking her up in trades for $5 or less will be easy enough and worth doing. Keep in mind that Born of the Gods and Journey into Nyx have some relatively short print runs, and Kiora is Cube-worthy if there’s support for the Simic color pairing.

The Temples (Enlightenment, Plenty, Malice) – The first two of these have higher prices right now because of their applications in Standard. Waiting until rotation to pick these up is the play. I really like these as inclusions for deliberately underpowered Cubes, too. Get them around $1-$2, though Temple of Enlightenment pops up occasionally in Modern lists and might not go below $4.

Journey into Nyx

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes – I said it when the card came out: This is a terribly awesome card in the superfriends decks and you’ll want to wait till rotation to pick up a few. The price is still high, $16, due to a smattering of play and the low run of Journey cards. I’m not sure how low it will go, as there were never all that many in circulation, but there are a lot of Standard decks running him as a one- or two-of. Dropping to $10 seems likely, but he’s seeing zero Modern play and most of the Commander decks that wanted one got one, so $5-$7 is in play too.

Eidolon of the Great Revel – This is knocking on $10 and has been climbing all year. This took a hit not long ago, knocking down to $6, but it’s come back strong. This card is the real deal in eternal formats, making waves in everyone’s budget deck of choice: Burn. This has an excellent chance to add $5 or more in value within the next year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if rotation didn’t touch this price. It’s worth saying that in this day and age, reprints are a funny thing, and this is something I’d have on the radar for a reprint before long. When they go up, go ahead and sell out.

The foils are just $25, and that’s a low price for something that is a four-of in Legacy maindecks. It seems like a pretty easy pickup now, and has great potential to go higher. We’re not talking Abrupt Decay-level spikes, but seeing this as a $50 foil within a year wouldn’t be shocking. It’s that good and that commonly played in Legacy and Modern.

Magic 2015

Garruk, Apex Predator – Currently at $15 and seeing just a touch of Standard play, rotation should push him to $8 or so, and that’s when you want to pick up a few. This is a fantastic Commander card and is pretty unlikely to get printed again.

Ajani Steadfast – Only when this gets under $5 will I want to get any copies in trades.

Obelisk of Urd – Hear me out. Tribal decks are absolutely a thing in casual play and this is a pretty good way to make any tribe terrifying. Convoke is an excellent way to lower its cost, and the card is at $3/$5 despite seeing the tiniest amount of Constructed play. I’m a big fan of picking up these foils right now, and being patient. I’m not saying these will double in six months, but I do think these will have a slow upward trend and be excellent trade fodder.

The Chain Veil – With a foil split of $1/$8, this card has serious casual appeal. The nonfoils are a pretty weak bet, but it won’t cost you much to pick some up and this is a unique effect in a mythic slot, a combination that can lead to some impressive price swings. I would agree with you if you bought a few now and simply waited until a five-color legend was printed that enables planeswalkers somehow, or, heaven forbid, there was a five-color planeswalker that had the ‘This can be your Commander’ text. That would spike this foil to at least $20 upon being revealed.

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