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Hall of the Dragonlords

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By Guo Heng

Dragons. Elder Dragons. Dragonlords. 

Dragons of Tarkir is a Timmy’s and Vorthos’ dream come true. The definitive dragon set, Dragons of Tarkir contains the highest number of dragons we have ever seen in a Magic set and by extension also the highest as-fan of dragons.

And as if that was not enough, we were spoiled with the return of the Elder Dragon subtype, one of the most iconic creature type in Magic. They were the progenitor of the Commander format, and they were integral characters in early Magic lore. Well, modern Magic lore as well, if you consider Nicol Bolas an Elder Dragon even after his planeswalker spark ignited.

The excitement surrounding the introduction of five new Elder Dragons was palpable.  Elder Dragon was a rather rare creature type, appearing in only five cards throughout the twenty-two years of Magic’s existence. There are more Gods than there are Elder Dragons in the Magic universe.

Let’s take a look at the new Elder Dragons through our Magic finance monocles. Starting alphabetically we get have our largest of Dragonlords:

Atarka, Dragonlord Hodor

Mother of Bogardan Hellkites.
Mother of Bogardan Hellkites.

StarCityGames Presale: $9.99

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TCG-Mid: $5.88

As you can see, I am not particularly fond of Dragonlord Atarka.

Standard: Dragonlord Atarka is the Magic dictionary’s definition of clunky. Yes, her enter the battlefield trigger will take down at least one creature in the current metagame of Siege Rhino, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Polukranos, World Eater and Stormbreath Dragon. She may even take down a relatively fresh-on-the-board Elspeth, Sun’s Champion, or a ticked down Ugin, the Spirit Dragon.

However, if you are going to tap for seven, you would want more than just a two-for-one. Think Hornet Queen, who usually nets you at least a three-for-one, or at least turn the tides and stabilize your board. Dragonlord Atarka could stabilize your board by taking out a creature and being a 8/8 blocking body, but her board presence is less resilient than Hornet Queen.

Dragonlord Atarka is one mana cheaper than the iconic Bogardan Hellkite but her enter the battlefield trigger does not target players. Which is a shame, because you could not finish off opponents merely resolving a Dragonlord Atarka.

It waits to be seen if Dragonlord Atarka will see play side-by-side with Frontier Siege as Cedric Philips proposed in his article spoiling Dragonlord Atarka.

Modern: Don’t even think about it. You can’t even Dragonstorm Dragonlord Atarka for the win. Not that Dragonstorm is a deck in Modern anyway.

Commander: Her rare version was more interesting, as /r/EDH noted. I concur with them; I would rather have a seven mana commander that renders my dragons double strike (Thundermaw Hellkite for ten).

Plus, Dragonlord Atarka’s enter the battlefield trigger of five damage is nothing to fete about in Commander games.

Verdict: Dragonlord Atarka is what happens when you attach a pair of wings on Hodor. Or give him a can of Red Bull. Dragonlord Atarka’s price would drop from her preorder price, and experience a slow rise through the years buoyed by casual demand.

Predictions:

1 month: $5 – $6

Peak supply at the release of Magic Origins (3 months, 3 weeks): Under $5

Long-term: $5 – $10

Invest in foils if you are looking to make some long-term dough off Dragonlord Atarka.

Dromoka, Dragonlord-in-Chief

Dragonlord she may be, Dromoka still does lookout duty from time to time.
Dragonlord she may be, Dromoka still does lookout duty from time to time.

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TCG-Mid: $6.25

When a card was spoiled in the Mothership’s Command Tower column, it probably makes a good commander.

Standard: Dragonlord Dromoka may be the second most playable Dragonlord in Standard. An uncounterable 5/7 flying lifelinker for six mana is already playable as the top-of-the-curve for GW decks or even Abzan decks.

The Grand Abolisher clause is mere icing on the cake. I imagine the opponent can’t cast spells during your turn ability to be not too useful when you hit six mana most of the time except maybe that time where your control opponent has no answer to Dragonlord Dromoka for a few turns.

Her 5/7 flying body walls the majority of popular creatures in the metagame, and with lifelink, she could turn the tide when you are behind in board position.

True to her clan’s roots, Dragonlord Dromoka is the epitome of grindy. Imagine Siege Rhino and Dragonlord Dromoka in the same deck.

Modern: Dragonlord Dromoka has the makings to cut it in Modern, but her six casting cost makes her chance slim. A resolved Dromoka could block Tarmogoyfs, Tasigurs and Lingering Souls all day long and turn the tide of grindy midrange mirrors with her lifelink, but tapping six mana for a threat vulnerable to Path to Exile is setting yourself up for tempo loss.

If she does see play in Modern, she would probably be a one-off in the sideboard of midrange decks or Zoo variants.

Commander: Here’s where Dragonlord Dromoka truly shines. Dragonlord Dromoka excels both as a commander and one of the 99.

The two most popular GW commanders as of writing are Captain Sisay and Karametra, God of Harvests. Being legendary herself, I have a feeling Dragonlord Dromoka would be an auto-include in Captain Sisay decks as a tutorable hatebear hatedragon with upsides.

I do not play a lot of multiplayer Commander, so I can’t tell if Dragonlord Dromoka is better than Karametra as a multiplayer commander. To be fair, they both cater to different builds.

Besides ramping, Karametra decks could abuse the top of their decks with Karametra’s ability to trigger a shuffle. A Dragonlord Dromoka deck have me giddy at the thought of resolving an uncontested Genesis Wave or any of the GW hard lock combos available.

Verdict: I am excited about Dragonlord Dromoka both financially and as a player. She has cross-format potential and could be one of the Dragonlords to end up with double-digit figures in the medium to long-term.

Predictions:

1 month: $8 – $10, up to $15 if she sees significant play during Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir.

Peak supply at the release of Magic Origins (3 months, 3 weeks): $10

Long-term: $15 – $20

I’m keeping an eye for foils of Dragonlord Dromoka when foils drop to slightly above $10. The current price of foil Narset, Enlightened Master, one of the most popular commanders from Khans of Tarkir which will be opened  more than Dragons of Tarkir (and presumably redeemed more as well, because foil fetches) is $10 – $12 right now, and with Dragons of Tarkir opened less, I would imagine foil Dragonlord Dromoka to drop to a slightly higher price at peak supply.

Kolaghan, Dragonlord Disappointment

Dragonlord Kolaghan

StarCityGames Presale: $3.99

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TCG-Mid: $3.93

The cheapest of the Dragonlord in preorder price, Dragonlord Kolaghan was the most difficult to evaluate using theorycrafting. She could be decent, or totally crap.

At best, Dragonlord Kolaghan turns a few cards in your opponent’s hand into dead cards, that is until they draw into their Hero’s Downfall, Murderous Cut, Chained to the Rocks or Valorous Stance.

Without testing her out in real life, it is difficult to evaluate how triggerable her target opponent loses ten life clause is. Theorycrafting alone says that it would not be that often: it’s not often that control opponents resolve the same planeswalker twice, and the creature clause works best against creature-centric decks, but you don’t really want a six drop against those decks. Plus with the prevalence of Delve, you opponents could easily Delve away creatures in their graveyard to fuel a Murderous Cut.

Standard: RB is not a color combination that sees much play in the current Standard meta and unless an aggressive RB shell becomes a thing in Dragons of Tarkir Standard, I am pessimistic about the financial future of Dragonlord Kolaghan.

Plus, she gets picked out by fellow Dragonlord Atarka.

Modern: Nope.

Commander: Dragonlord Kolaghan seems to be designed with Commander in mind.

Verdict: I am tempted to put down Dragonlord Kolaghan as a bulk mythic. The only format she has any chance to make a break in is Standard and even if she does, she would unlikely be a four-of.

Predictions:

1 month: $2

Peak supply at the release of Magic Origins (3 months, 3 weeks): $2

Long-term: $5, on the merit of being an Elder Dragon.

I am not even sure if foil Dragonlord Kolaghan are good investments. Maybe if you can get them at bulk price, but she is an Elder Dragon and kitchen table demand may prevent her foil prices from descending to bulk.

Ojutai, Dragonlord Playable

It's a bird...it's a planeswalker...it's Ojutai!
It’s a bird…it’s a planeswalker…it’s Ojutai?

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TCG-Mid: $4.95

Dragonlord Ojutai has my vote as the most undervalued Dragonlord. True to his clan’s reverence of cunning, Dragonlord Ojutai is one of those cards that would probably turn to be much better than he looks once we get to play with him in our decks.

You can jam out Dragonlord Ojutai on turn five with impunity, knowing well he would survive to the next turn barring an End Hostilities or Crux of Fate. You can untap the turn after and have removals or protection up as you ride Dragonlord Ojutai to victory.

In the right build, I doubt it would be hard to connect once or twice with Dragonlord Ojutai to reap his value.

Standard: There are so many archetypes Dragonlord Ojutai could find a home in. He looks to be a good curve-topper for Jeskai burn where you could protect him with counterspells and clear the skies with burn to ride Ojutai’s value train.

Dragonlord Ojutai has synergy with Jeskai Ascendancy, and while the interaction looks cute, I am wary of discounting any Jeskai Ascendancy interactions as Jeskai Ascendancy has proven over and over again during Khans of Tarkir Standard that it is a powerful value engine that fits in a swath of Jeskai builds.

On a side note, you also get Vorthos points for the irony of running Dragonlord Ojutai in a Jeskai deck.

Dragonlord Ojutai could also find a perch as a finisher in UW or Esper Control decks. His mini-Brainstorm Ponder trigger digs you more gas, answers or Dig Through Time.

I do not know if Mono-Blue Devotion would be as viable as hyped once we enter Dragons of Tarkir Standard, but it would not be far-fetched to imagine Mono-Blue Devotion splashing white for Valorous Stance, Ephara, God of the Polis or Dragonlord Ojutai.

If needs be, Dragonlord Ojutai is able to trade with Siege Rhino and Tasigur, the Golden Fang. He is also the only Dragonlord immune to Dragonlord Silumgar’s charisma, which may be useful in control mirrors. Speaking of which, control mirrors may be a matchup where Dragonlord Ojutai excels as a pesky threat.

Unfortunately, Dragonlord Ojutai does not fare well against Stormbreath Dragon and if there is a factor that represses the playability of Dragonlord Ojutai, it would be the pervasiveness of Strombreath Dragon.

If that happens, I wouldn’t fret. Remember when Thundermaw Hellkite was cheap because he was unplayable in a Vapor Snag and Snapcaster Mage Standard?

Modern: Dragonlord Ojutai’s five casting cost puts him at the fringe of Modern playability. UW is not really a thing in Modern and I imagine Jeskai builds would rather run Keranos, God of Storms, or just plain Stormbreath Dragon over Dragonlord Ojutai.

Commander: Dragonlord Ojutai has the potential to be a control or stax commander, being relatively cheap and having in-built protection which plays well with the veritable selection of enchantments and artifacts that grants vigilance.

It would also be easier to trigger Dragonlord Ojutai’s ability in a multiplayer game.

Verdict: I think Dragonlord Ojutai is tied with Dragonlord Silumgar as the most playable Dragonlord. He is chock-full of potential in Standard and is Commander-playable.

Predictions:

1 month: $10 – $15

Peak supply at the release of Magic Origins (3 months, 3 weeks): $10 – $15

Long-term: It depends on how popular Dragonlord Ojutai is as a commander and if anyone breaks him in Modern (what are the odds? Low in my opinion).

Dragonlord Ojutai is one of the few cards I am preordering. It baffles me that he is preordering for less than Dragonlord Atarka.

Silumgar, Dragonlord Charisma

From Reddit: Draw me like one of your Dragonlords.
From Reddit: Draw me like one of your Dragonlords.

StarCityGames Presale: $7.99

ChannelFireball Presale: $6.99

TCG-Mid: $5.12

Reid Duke ran a good piece analysing Dragonlord Silumgar last week (his verdict: 7/10). I wrote extensively about Dragonlord Silumgar in my previous article (mainly praises). Without rehashing too much from both articles, Dragonlord Silumgar is easily the best of the Dragonlords.

Standard: UB and Sultai Control are obvious homes for Dragonlord Silumgar. Whether he belongs in the sideboard or mainboard is more contentious. I am of opinion Dragonlord Silumgar is good enough to see mainboard play.

Dragonlord Silumgar stabilizes the board  with his Charisma trigger and five toughness which allows him to wall Siege Rhinos, Tasigurs and Stormbreath Dragon all day long. Not that they usually come back for a second encounter seeing that Dragonlord Silumgar has deathtouch.

Due to his very convenient three power, Dragonlord Silumgar is the only Dragonlord who does not die to Elspeth, Sun’s Champion.

Dragonlord Silumgar excels in control match ups as well, being an answer to opposing planes walkers that would steal the game if your opponent does not have an answer to Dragonlord Silumgar in return. Or conveniently ultimating your opponent’s planeswalker, but I imagine players would be playing around that possibility shall he becomes a mainstay of the Standard meta.

Modern: Sower of Temptation barely sees play in Modern and Sower only costs four. I doubt Dragonlord Silumgar would cut it in the current Modern meta where Path to Exile is so pervasive.

Perhaps if the meta shifts towards less Path of Exile, Dragonlord Silumgar may have a chance, but I highly doubt it. Six mana is prohibitive unless it’s  a Primeval Titan.

Commander: In my previous article, I mentioned that Dragonlord Silumgar seems to be designed with Standard rather than Commander in mind, but better Commander minds think Dragonlord Silumgar may have a spot as one of the 99. I can’t argue with that.

Come to think of it, stealing big creatures or opposing Jace, the Mind Sculptor, would be quite fun in Commander. Dragonlord Silumgar is just not cut as a Commander himself.

Verdict: Dragonlord Silumgar, alongside with Dragonlord Ojutai would probably be the two Elder Dragons that see the most play in Standard. 7/10 in Reid Duke’s assessment is a pretty good, and I would venture to say Dragonlord Silumgar looks to be pushed in design.

Prediction:

1 month: $10 – $12

Peak supply at the release of Magic Origins (3 months, 3 weeks): $10 – $12

Long-term: Dragonlord Silumgar will probably maintain a mid $10s price tag through the majority of his Standard life.

Dragonlord Silumgar is a fine preorder if you want to play with him. While I think Dragonlord Silumgar has potential in Standard, I doubt he would be a four-of like Whisperwood Elemental, which is currently $14.

Also, a Dragonlord who wears the highly playable Tasigur as a necklace can’t be bad right?

All Hail the Dragonlords

Regardless of how much play they see in Standard, the Dragonlords will be casual hits. Kitchen table demand may actually be a strong driver for the price of the Dragonlords  due to their immense casual appeal.

Casual demand is the invisible hand (I am totally misusing Adam Smith’s term) that drove up the price of angels and dragons and I would imagine the Elder Dragons to be the primary chase cards among the kitchen table crowd.

The kitchen table is where Dragonlord Atarka and Dragonlord Kolaghan have the best chance of being a hit. Dragonlord Atarka is the embodiment of the ultimate Timmy dragon. Kitchen table players are more likely than spikes to attempt abusing Dragonlord Kolaghan’s very situational ten damage clause.

It baffles me as to why Dragonlord Ojutai is one of the cheapest Dragonlord to preorder. Perhaps his prowess on the board would be better than what he looks like on the computer screen.

If the price trajectory of the foil Avacyn Restored angels – Avacyn, Gisela, Sigarda and Bruna –  are anything to go by, Dragonlord foils would make for good long-term investments due to their immense casual and Commander appeal.

Of course, the month or two after release is not the best time to amass your foil Elder Dragons. Wait for Dragons of Tarkir to hit peak supply when Magic Origins is release when Dragons of Tarkir would have been drafted for nearly four months and redemption is in full swing.

In my previous article I mentioned that Dragons of Tarkir – Fate Reforged would ‘grind to a halt when Modern Masters 2015 is released’. I may be wrong about that.

While Wizards is ramping up the print run for Modern Masters 2015, the price of one Modern Masters 2015 pack would be three times the price of a Dragons of Tarkir booster pack. I don’t imagine the casual crowd to switch over to just drafting Modern Masters 2015 for the month between the release of Modern Masters 2015 and Magic Origins.

I suspect the supply of Dragons of Tarkir card would still trickle into the market after the release of Modern Masters 2015 and would only grind to a halt except for redemption once Magic Origin comes out.

Comments are more than welcomed, drop one below or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng. Till then, may the Dragonlords be with you.

Edit: An earlier version of this article cited that Dragonlord Silumgar does not die to Valorous Stance, which is not true. A reader pointed out that Valorous stance actually checks the creature’s toughness, not power.

My bad. Running foreign language copies of Valorous Stance in my deck, I’ve always read it as “Destroy target Siege Rhino or Tasigur, the Golden Fang”.

 

The Gilded Goblin

Commander 2014 Price Tracking – Part 1

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By: Jared Yost

I’m going to take a look at the most valuable singles of the Commander 2014 decks to see if there is anything currently undervalued now that the set has been in stores for several months and has been widely distributed.

Since there is plenty of information to cover, I’m going to split this into two posts. Part one will cover the white and blue decks. Part two will cover the black, red, and green decks. 

Forged in Stone

Let’s start with the white deck first, since it makes sense from both a color wheel perspective and because this deck contains the Legacy staple that Wizards decided to include amongst the decks of this type of product – Containment Priest.

Containment Priest – Surprisingly, this card is at an all time low of $16 right now from its high of $24 back in November. You could have even paid potentially more than that if you needed her the weekend of Grand Prix New Jersey, which unfortunately happened within a week of the Commander 2014 release.

containment priest price history

My feeling here is that if True-Name Nemesis can’t even hold a $20 price tag than neither can Priest. Speaking of which, True-Name Nemesis seems like a great pick up right now since they are a recurring Legacy staple and have fallen steeply in price since their $50+ heydays. Containment Priest won’t follow the same pattern though, since she is a sideboard card in Legacy rather than a main deck threat like TNN. As more Commander 2014 is released, the price only stands to stagnate or even drop further. I would avoid Priest unless you need them for Legacy. 

Nahiri, the Lithomancer – I’ll say this right up front. I’m a fan of all the planeswalkers from this set because they have several qualities that I like in long term pickups.

  • Only one printing (though this is a mass distributed product, I still feel this attribute is important in this case)
  • Completely new planeswalkers that haven’t been seen before
  • They are tied into the lore of Magic very closely, and they included throwbacks to Teferi and Freyalise which is awesome
  • Unique Commander appeal, due to a slight rules twist that allows these planeswalkers to be played as generals
  • Decently strong effects, since they are the headlining cards of their respective pre-cons

For all these reasons, plus the fact that they are all in the $5-$7 range, I believe that the planeswalkers from Commander 2014 are all solid pickups as singles. I have a feeling that Teferi and Daretti will become the most valuable in the long run however each planeswalker will grow in time from casual demand.

Grand Abolisher – Grand Abolisher actually didn’t take that much of a nose dive in price compared to some of the other cards that were reprinted in Commander 2014. It went from $4 to $3, a drop of 25% but not that large in the grand scheme of things. I believe that the casual is strong with this card, and that eventually it will start climbing up again in price until the next reprint. Now is a great time to pick up Abolisher if you even wanted one as they won’t get much cheaper than this. 

Sol Ring – Sol Ring has finally been printed so many times that it is now around $3 per copy. I really don’t think Ring is a great place to put your money anymore. Wizards has proven that they’re going to print this card in every single Commander pre-con that they make, so players aren’t going to be looking for copies that often. Foils are another story, however I feel that regular Sol Rings are past their price prime due to being reprinted into oblivion. 

Masterwork of Ingenuity – Cute card, but its price drop to $2 indicates to me that players aren’t clamoring to get extra copies of Equipment to use for their own schemes in Commander games. I don’t think this has a home in Legacy because it is too narrow (and also because Stoneforge Mystic is so good) so future demand isn’t coming from there. Not the card you want to buy enmass for future gains. 

Angel of the Dire Hour – This card has potential to me, especially at $1.50 and lower. If you can pick these up for $1 or less then I think you will do quite well in the future. Angels are a popular casual tribe and this angel is awesome removal that leaves behind a big, flying body. I”ll be picking up extra copies of in trades and other deals. 

Pearl Medallion – The medallions are a great addition to any mono colored Commander deck, so even with the reprint they will continue to gain value over time. The Tempest copies haven’t been drastically affected by the mass C14 reprint, so even if you have the old school version you didn’t lose that much value (due to the new art and card look compared to the old version). I feel like each medallion has entered its low point going into the $1.50 and less range. I will be looking around for extra copies to trade into and buy for all the colors.

Hallowed Spiritkeeper – Spiritkeeper’s future price is going to be hard to guess, as I feel that the price is very cheap at $1.30 and lower. Yet, I just don’t feel like this card will ever have a home in eternal formats like Legacy. Eternal formats are partially what drives the increase in the price of cards, other than casual demand, and I don’t really see much appeal to this card that would drive casual demand. I’m not going to be buying any, but I will keep my eye on this card going forward as the effect is strong and may possibly be desired in the future. The card provides nice wrath protection, at the very least. 

Peer Through Time

Next up in the color order is the mono blue Commander deck, which many view as the weakest deck in the lot. From what I hear, players aren’t really buying the deck in favor of the others due to the weird nature of this deck revolving around large sea creatures.

Teferi, Temporal Archmage – Along with Freyalise, Teferi is the only other planeswalker in the set that is around $7 retail. From what I hear on the ground, players really want to pick up Teferi. I mean, that last ability is a casual players magical christmas land. Giving all your Planeswalkers instant speed activations for all loyalty abilities is one of the Johnniest things you can do. Think of all those triggers that will allow you to control the game, no matter whose turn it is! Think of all those tricky things you can do when responding at instant to speed to something with a planeswalkers ability! Think of all the ultimate abilities that will go off with so many counters being placed so quickly!

So of course, Teferi is going into basically any deck (Commander or casual) that utilizes lots of planeswalkers for maximum value out of all the loyalty activations. Out of all the planeswalkers, I like Teferi the most due to his unique ultimate ability that allows you to have instant speed loyalty abilities. I believe that $7 is the floor for this ‘walker and that he will only be going up from here. 

Thran Dynamo – Despite having two other reprints in supplementary products, Thran Dynamo is still going strong at $5 and higher retail. Like Sol Ring, I don’t think Dynamo is where you want to be for future gains, however I can’t deny that this card has huge casual appeal from all the Timmy’s that want to play their eight drops on turn five. I won’t blame if you pick up a bunch of extra copies but just be wary that Wizards does reprint this card from time to time. Interestingly, they only reprinted it in Peer Through Time, which could be the factor keeping the price at $5 and higher. 

Reef Worm – A great casual card; I will be watching this for any future declines. If it goes below $2 I will be very interested in getting my hands on some copies. This is a card that screams casual to me, so I think it will always have fans in the future that want to abuse the effect. Yet, I think that this is a very slow gainer since you need to do some work to make the card great. 

Sapphire Medallion – See my Pearl Medallion review above. Sapphire is the highest priced medallion at $2.50 retail, and even though it is higher priced than the others my thinking still applies. I believe that Sapphire Medallion will be a long term gainer just like all the others. 

Cyclonic Rift – One of the most powerful sweepers that blue has received for Commander, Rift will always maintain value due to its power in the format. Though it currently sits at $2, there will be room to grow for this card until the next reprint. I even like foils of this card at $10, as it is a staple in pretty much every blue Commander deck. 

Rite of Replication – Like Rift, this is a super power spell that will most of the time win the player the game if it is cast at the right time. My same thinking applies for Rite as it did for Rift, even for foils which are around $11 retail. Actually, that seems pretty cheap for foils from Zendikar compared to Return to Ravnica. Zendikar has been out of print for a while, so I’m surprised the foil price of Rite of Replication isn’t higher. 

Nevinyrral’s Disk – Since this card has received so many reprints, I don’t think we’ll ever see it go above $2 again. I would stay far away from Disk from a financial perspective. It got hit hard by the double Commander reprint, and even if it does start climbing again I feel that this will continue to be reprinted in products like Commander.

That’s It For This Week

I plan on tackling the commons and uncommons of Fate Reforged for my next article, since the full set of Dragons of Tarkir has been spoiled. However, don’t fret dear reader! I will continue to work on this two-part series to make sure that I’ve identified the cards from all the Commander 2014 decks that I’d like to talk about.

What are your thoughts on Forged in Stone and Peer Through Time? Are you looking out for any specific singles from the decks in order to boost your collection or finish a deck? What do you think of the retail value of the products long term? From a sealed perspective, I’ll personally be looking to find undervalued sealed product for long term gains. Though I’ll have to keep in mind that the Commander 2013 decks are still around $20 per copy on TCGPlayer, which is much lower than their original MSRP of $35…

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WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: March 15th/15

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

5 Winners of the Week

Most of the movement this week is coming from the ever-shifting Theros/Khans standard format, with new cards ascending and some old favorites slowly falling from grace. Let’s have a look at what’s up:

1. Master of the Unseen (Fate Reforged, Rare): $2.00 to $3.73 (87%)

It should come as no surprise that the week after this card dominated the finals of Grand Prix Miami it is suddenly in high demand. Some are worried that the G/W Manifest deck is the new boogeyman of standard, but I suspect that the metagame rolling into the release of Dragons of Tarkir will keep shifting and ensure that variety is still the defining element of the season. That being said, this is a winter small set rare, it fits into a bunch of decks, and therefore may be able to hit $4-5 before it rotates in winter 2016. As such, I’m ignoring the voices calling to sell and advocating a clear hold on this card looking for further profits. Of course if you were smart enough to stockpile at $.50, by all means do as you will.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Hold

2. Citadel Siege (Fate Reforged, Rare): $0.62 to $1.04 (68%)

Add this one to the list of underrated Fate Reforged rares that are just going to work in Standard lately. The ability to tap something down on the attack or drive home more points of damage via the application of counters provides a ton of versatility, though in the U/W Control builds that are running it, the tap function is king. I have no interest in outing cards under $3-4 period, so I’d recommend holding this one for a while if you are sitting on them as U/W could just be getting started in Standard.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Hold

3. See the Unwritten (KTK, Mythic): $3.00 to $4.70 (57%)

As noted last week, this is rising on the premise that either Dragons or Eldrazi will make it an essential component of a deck before it rotates next winter. I’m holding until September and you should likely do the same unless this pushes into the $6-8 range early, in which case, go for it since it won’t ever find a home beyond Standard play anyway.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Hold

4. Thassa God of the Sea (Theros, Mythic Rare):  $4.81 to $7.08 (47%) 

As detailed last week, Thassa and Master of Waves have both gained well in anticipation that Blue Devotion will once again be a deck. Depending on how early you got in on your copies, you could easily be looking to out by now, but I’m holding because I believe the deck will make a Top 8 before it rotates and lock in stronger profits.  As one of the better Theros gods I’m also fine holding these for the longer term as necessary.

Format(s): Standard/Modern/EDH/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Hold

5. Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund (Alara Reborn, Mythic): $11.91 to $15.24 (28%)

With all the dragon hype leading into the release of Dragons of Tarkir, it’s hardly surprising to see some of the better casual dragons rising. Karrthus is one of the baddest of the bunch, and I’d feel comfortable selling into the hype if I had any lying around as it’s unlikely to enjoy much more of a bump once the summer doldrums hit.

Format(s): Casual/EDH

Verdict: Hold

 

 3 Top Losers of the Week

1. Soul of Theros: $7.82 to $3.61 (-54%)

Soul of Theros got its’ moment in the sun in the Soul/Whip decks earlier this season, but the deck isn’t seeing much play these days, and rotation for M15 isn’t too far off, so I’d expect this to keep sliding down towards bulk heading into summer. Time to sell.

Verdict: Sell

 

2. Stoke the Flames: $4.95 to $4.42 (-11%)

Don’t get it twisted. This is still the best spell in Standard, and will be for a few more months, but it’s natural for it to be shedding some value heading towards rotation. Unload your extras soon, because this doesn’t have a future beyond Standard.

Verdict: Sell

3. Monastery Mentor: $25.28 to $22.89 (-9%)

This card is seeing play in multiple formats, but it’s not dominating anywhere. I think foils are still the key play, but I’m also hoping for a moment of weakness this summer shortly after the release of MM2 when we can swoop in and scoop up regular copies in the $12-15 range for future returns above $30 a few years down the road. The card is very, very good and just needs the right pieces to pair it with in any given format to be a great move.

Verdict: Sell (to buy in later)

 

Quick Hits

  • I’m having trouble imaging a better spec than Abrupt Decay at present. There are plenty of copies around $12 lying around. Sure, it was $6 a year ago, but it will likely be $20-25 by next year and there isn’t a reprint coming until at least MM3 which may or may not appear in summer 2016, depending on how the MM2 release goes. Either way, if you’re fooling around with long shots (as I tend to) and don’t have many of these stashed away yet (As I do) you might want to rethink where you’re parking your money.
  • Snapcaster Mage is appreciating VERY nicely and pretty much right on schedule. Many of us were stockpiling around $20 at rotation, and now have easy outs for a double up. This was the last Abrupt Decay, get it? If you’re holding, you can wait for a possible $70-80 peak within the year, or just get out now and reinvest into something with a bigger upside, like say Abrupt Decay.
  • With the currency shifts between the USD, Euro and Canadian dollar, there really are a lot of arbitrage opportunities to be had on big ticket items if you’re willing to do some math and shop by phone across borders. Get to it.
  • If I have to choose between the Dragons of Tarkir planeswalkers I think you’ve got way more upside trying to snag Sarkhan around $20 than you will buying into Narset above $30.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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MTGFinance: What We’re Buying/Selling This Week (March 14th/15)

19 Comments

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It recently occurred to us here that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when we actually put our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series simply breaking down what we’ve been buying this week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:

Buying Period: March 8th -14th, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

  • 8x Descent of the Dragons @ $2.10 per
  • 14x Descent of the Dragons @ $3.15 per
  • 4x Descent of the Dragons @ $3.25 per
  • 28x Dragon Tempest @ $1.55 per
  • 8x Dragon Tempest @ $1.05 per
  • 8x Sidisi, Undead Vizier @ $4.15 per
  • 16x Master of the Unseen @ $2.00 per
  • 2x Tasigur, The Golden Fang (Foil) @ $24.15 per
  • 1x Command Tower (Judge Foil) @  $22
  • 3x Duress (IDW) @ $3
  • 1x Faithless Looting (IDW) @ $3

SOLD

  • 3x Duress (IDW Promo) @ $13 per ($3 cost)

I’m going relatively deep on Descent of the Dragons and Dragon Tempest on the basis that a lot of people are underestimating their combo potential in Standard alongside the long overlooked Battlefield Thaumaturge and mana dorks. The deck shell is basically based around a fairly normal Temur early game that suddenly transforms into an instant kill. Basically if you have 3 creatures in play, with Thaumaturge being one of them, and a Dragon Tempest in play, you put 12/12 worth of Dragons into play and instantly do 9 points and then attack for 12. This can happen as early as Turn 5. The deck can lean on Sarkhan Unbroken, Hour of Need and Stormbreath as backup plans and just play a more midrange game if the pieces aren’t drawn fast enough. I predict that the deck in some form hits at least Tier 2 in Standard, and an on camera appearance should be enough to double the price of both cards. If it fails to perform however, these are pretty bad long term specs as their future in other formats may be dubious at best.

Sidisi, Undead Vizier is my pick for one of the top 3 cards in Dragons of Tarkir, as his power level seems extremely high. With DoT facing a longer rotation schedule than the last two sets, there is a good chance this card tops $8-10 at some point in it’s play life.

As for Tasigur, my early call that he was underrated has come true, and I now expect this guy to be a multi-format player for many years. As such, I’m still buying foils while selling my non-foils.

There was a run on the judge foil Command Towers this week, and I managed to snag a copy before the price spikes.  I also managed to snag a few additional copies of the IDW promos via back issues at my local comic shop.

On the sales side, a pretty quiet week, but I did sell into the buyout on IDW promos by unloading a handful of the  Duress at a triple up, with several more held back to test the new price plateau.

Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin)

BOUGHT

Short/Mid:

44x See the Unwritten @ $1.25

Mid

  • 10x Order of Whiteclay @ $1.93

Long

  • 8x Aggressive Mining @ $.20
Travis says:
“With Battle for Zendikar on the horizon for fall 2015, players are going to be excited about See the Unwritten in conjunction with Eldrazi. It doesn’t even need to end up being good for there to be a great selling window; we just need people to be excited about it for long enough to get out.
I wrote Order of Whiteclay down as a Tiny Leaders spec a few weeks ago. The other day I noticed there were very few copies left on the retail circuit, so I picked up some on eBay to follow through.

Aggressive Mining is a cool potential combo piece that was cheap from a vendor I was already buying from.”

Guo Heng Chin (@theguoheng)

Nothing to report this week.

Jared Yost

Nothing to report.

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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