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Geist in a Post-Pod World: Jeskai Geist Pickups

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By Guo Heng Chin

As the clock struck 8 a.m. PST yesterday, the banhammer fell. In a mighty swoop, not one, nor two, but three cards in Modern became casualties in the latest round of DCI banned and restricted announcement. It was a banning on a scale we have not seen for years, taking out two dominating Modern archetype and resetting the power level of the format to pre-Khans of Tarkir level.

Granted, concessions were made. The good ol’ grave troll were released from the DCI’s prison, but part of me wished that Wizards released the Troll just to indicate that the banned and restricted announcement was just one big trolling attempt.

In the veins of Deathrite Shaman‘s ban last February, yesterday’s banned and restricted announcement aimed at shaking up the Modern format in anticipation of the upcoming Modern Pro Tour in Washington, DC. The ripples of this year’s bannings will definitely be felt as two tier one incumbents were nudged off their seats in the Council of Tier One Modern Decks. Coupled with the unbanning of a popular card, the financial implications could span across a multitude of cards. Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin) would be discussing the changes in his article tomorrow. My article today will focus on a few cards I am very familiar with, a few cards which in my opinion, stand to be the biggest winners of the latest round of bannings. Those cards are related to a particular archetype that was marginalised in the post-Khans Modern landscape.

The Ghost of Jeskai Past

UWR Geist, or Jeskai Geist as the nomenclature goes in 2015 was the first successful tempo deck in Modern. The archetype debut on Magic Online when Larry Swasey, better known as Krazykirby4 on Magic Online took down a Magic Online PTQ in the middle of January 2013 with an innovative new brew. It was at the height of Jund’s dominance, shortly before Bloodbraid Elf fell under the banhammer. To put it in Larry’s own words, that deck was a monster, and it propelled both Larry and his friend Brandon Large who was running the same list, to the finals of that said PTQ. It was a deck capable of attacking efficiently on multiple angles, a hallmark of good modern-day decks as Gerry Thompson encapsulated recently in a very insightful article.

UWR Jeskai Geist garnered widespread attention a week later when Mitchell Manders took down Grand Prix Bilbao with a 75 that was mostly similar to Larry’s masterpiece, dispatching a Jund piloted by the formidable Lukas Jaklovsky. Jeskai Geist was inducted  into the hallowed halls of tier one Modern decks. One does not simply disregard a deck that could take on pre-nerf Jund, the fairest of fair decks, in one-on-one combat.

Unfortunately that was exactly what happened. Jeskai Geist faded into obscurity, only to surface again a year later when Vjeran Horvat won Grand Prix Prague with Jeskai Geist in January 2014. Jeskai Geist proponents rejoiced.

I may not be a strategy writer; heck even my strategy credentials are lacking – I do not even have a single PTQ top 8 under my belt. However, I have been playing Jeskai Geist in real life and online pretty much since Larry Swasey took down the Magic Online PTQ in January 2013, and it was my go-to Modern deck up to the point when UR Delver upstarted it thanks to Treasure Cruise. I like to think I have a decent grasp on Jeskai Delver; at least good enough to 4-0 a couple of Modern Dailies. And I like to think that Jeskai Geist was one of the biggest winners from yesterday’s banned and restricted announcement.

Prior to Khans of Tarkir, Jeskai Geist was the de facto tempo deck in Modern. After Treasure Cruise entered the metagame, Jeskai Geist found it difficult to compete with UR Delver’s raw speed and ability to refuel with Ancestral Recall (though Jeff Hoogland did top 4 a StarCityGames Modern 5K with an updated Jeskai Geist list that incorporated two copies of Dig Through Time). When Deathrite Shaman was banned in February 2014, the tier one deck that became the hardest matchup for Jeskai Geist was Birthing Pod.

While Jeskai Geist could trade resources on parity with Pod decks, a resolved Birthing Pod often pushed the game out of reach, more so in game one where Jeskai Geist does not have an answer to a resolved Birthing Pod. To make matters worse, Pod decks could sneak a Birthing Pod under Jeskai Geist’s Mana Leak or Remand on turn two if the Pod deck is on the play. Or catch a Jeskai Geist pilot unaware during game one.

Birthing Pod was one of the toughest matchups for Jeskai Geist back when I was grinding Modern Daily Events. With Birthing Pod out of the equation, Jeskai Geist has a good chance to be very well positioned in the metagame. How about Siege Rhino? Siege Rhino is not too much of an issue in my opinion. One of the worse things you could do against Jeskai Geist is attempt to resolve high casting cost spells. Jeskai Geist capitalises on tempo and it is a huge tempo swing for Geist to Remand or Leak a four mana spell, or even just Path to Exile it.

Hopefully by now I have made a convincing argument that Jeskai Geist is the Next Big Thing New Old Big Thing. Let’s have a look at the key components of Jeskai Geist with financial potential.

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Spirited Away

The Geist of Jeskai Past, soon to be the Geist of Jeskai Present.
The Geist of Jeskai Past, soon to be the Geist of Jeskai Present.

Geist of Saint Traft is sitting at $14. Let that sink in for a while. $14 is pretty much the lowest ol’ Saint Traft’s spirit has ever been. Geist is probably the frontrunner for potential financial winners from the 19th January Banned and Restricted announcement. Geist barely escaped an upcoming reprint in Modern Masters 2015 and was last year’s WMCQ participation promo. It is highly unlikely to see a Geist of Saint Traft reprint in the near future.

At $14, Geist of Saint Traft can only go up in price. He is already $21 on Magic Online and has started to trend up since the announcement. My speculator’s ears always perk up when I see a digital card being significantly more expensive than its paper counterpart. $14 is a sweet price to pick up a mythic that is a four-of in a potential tier one Modern deck, and also offers hexproof against near-term reprints.

Heavenly Creatures

Dealing out heavenly justice since 2010.
Dealing out heavenly justice since 2010.

A beauty in the design of Jeskai Geist is the deck’s ability to play both aggro and control roles efficiently. An early Geist of Saint Traft closed games in a quick fashion in tandem with Restoration Angel and the occasional Thundermaw Hellkite. An early Geist backed by a flurry of removals and burn does the job too. After all, Geist was considered to be an honorary red card by no other than Burn maestro Patrick Sullivan. Shall the draws or the matchup demanded that Jeskai Geist plays the long game, the deck could trade removals and out-card advantage the opponent while Celestial Colonnade slowly chipped away at the opponent’s life total, four at a time.

While Colonnade is the other four-of win condition in Jeskai Geist, it is not a good pickup at $18, even though it has been trending down. Celestial Colonnade has a near-certain probability of being reprinted in Modern Masters 2015. I would steer clear of Celestial Colonnade.

Geist of Saint Traft's other angel. He was quite the Casanova.
Geist of Saint Traft’s other angel. He was quite the Casanova.

The price of Restoration Angel continues to baffle me. The Swiss Army knife of an angel is still a sub-$10 card despite the amount of play she saw in Modern. She was found in all iterations of Pod, in Death and Taxes and also the occasional UWr Flash. Restoration Angel is one of the most versatile value creatures in Modern: she resets your Kitchen Finks, protects your Geist of Saint Traft, rebuys Snapcaster Mage and a plethora of other creatures with enter-the-battlefield effects. Not to mention she combos with Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker for infinite angels and is a formidable beater by herself, being a 3/4 flying creature with flash.

I suspect Restoration Angel’s price will suffer a bit of a dip due to the Pod ban if Pod’s value shell proved to be unviable in a post-Pod world. If that scenario happens, it would probably be a short-lived dip as Restoration Angel is not going to be in Modern Masters 2015. Restoration Angel has the versatility to fit easily in plenty of other archetypes and it would only be a matter of time before another archetype picks her up from where Pod left off (on top of the archetypes that are currently running Restoration Angel).

$8 feels too low for a card this powerful and versatile and is unlikely to be reprinted soon. Even if you do not plan to spec on her, it might be prudent to pick up your own playset while she is at $8.

Mother of Dragons

The mother of dragons. Well, the mother of playable dragons.
The mother of dragons. Well, the mother of playable dragons.

Thundermaw Hellkite was the ideal curve-topper for Jeskai Geist and Jund back when Lingering Souls was running rampant in Modern. Jeff Hoogland eschewed Thundermaw for Stormbreath Dragon and Vjeran Horvat mentioned about replacing Thundermaw with another Restoration Angel or Cryptic Command in his post-Khans of Tarkir list that narrowly missed top 8 at Grand Prix Milan. Thundermaw’s position in the deck and the Modern metagame is meta-dependent. If Lingering Souls sees a resurgence in the new meta, Thundermaw would once again be the five-drop king of the sky.

I would not recommend buying as many Thundermaw Hellkites as you can at $9.46. It is quite possible to see Thundermaw reprinted in Magic 2016. It is the perfect foil to Hornet Queen and could appear as a pre-planned safety valve in Magic 2016. Keep an eye on Thundermaw; it might be worth moving in on Thundermaw at under $10 if Lingering Souls is widely played in the upcoming Modern Pro Tour, but don’t spec too many copies or sit on it for too long due to its short-term reprint risk.

Card Advantage is King

The leading cause of unintentional draws.
The leading cause of unintentional draws.

Both Jeff Hoogland’s list and Vjeran Horvat’s list ran two copies of Dig Through Time as late game card advantage trumps. With Dig Through Time out of the game, Jeskai Geist will probably revert to the old faithful, Sphinx’s Revelation.  Sphinx’s Revelation is a good pickup at $6. It is a Modern playable mythic that is unlikely to be reprinted in the near-to-medium-term as Return to Ravnica rotated out less than half a year ago.

Snapcaster tried his best to do an impersonation of Yawgmoth's Will. He really did.
Snapcaster tried his best to do an impersonation of Yawgmoth’s Will. He really did.

In the midst of the furore of yesterday’s shocker of an announcement (don’t pretend you were not suprised too), Snapcaster Mage nearly slipped my mind, until Redditor and moderator of the mtgmarketwatch subreddit /u/mtd14 reminded me that Snapcaster is among the winners from the bannings. I could not agree more. Snapcaster’s numbers suffered a decline in the wake of Treasure Cruise, because jamming Ancestral Recalls is plainly better than pseudo-Yawgmoth’s Wills.

Now that we can’t Ancestral Recall in Modern anymore, Snapcaster Mage will probably be present in higher numbers again. A Jeskai Geist resurgence would also increase the demand of Snapcaster Mage as the deck runs a full playset of Snapcaster. More importantly, Snapcaster is the most played creature in Modern being present in 31% of Modern decks in 2014 at 3.2 copies, despite Treasure Cruise suppresing his numbers during the recent months. And he is not going to be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015.

$34 is a rather low figure for the most played creature in Modern (and Vintage) with no reprint in sight for the near future. The only real risk of reprint for Snapcaster before the Modern Masters after Modern Masters 2015 is being minted as a Grand Prix promo, but we could rest assured that it won’t happen until at least December 2015, with Griselbrand being the 2015 Grand Prix promo.

Closing Thoughts

Other cards to consider in the wake of yesterday’s announcement:

  • Chord of Calling. Kiki-Chord is a potential direction for Kiki-Pod decks. Chord of Calling is just $3.
  • Domri Rade. Kiki-Pod once ran Domri Rade as an extra value engine. $7 is not cheap, but if he (or she) replaces Pod as the deck’s value engine, I am sure Domri would not be in the realm of single-digit price tag.

 

The Gilded Goblin

Uncommons and Commons of Fate Reforged

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By: Jared Yost

If you haven’t checked out Travis’ review of the Fate Reforged mythics and rares, I urge you to do so before you continue. I also highly recommend checking out James’ blog post on digging for dollars in Fate Reforged, which has helped shape some of my own opinions on the cards that I review in this article.

Now that your mind is full of the possibilities that await us in Fate Reforged, I present to you my set review of the uncommons and commons of Fate Reforged. Let’s first go over some ground rules like I did for my Khans uncommons and commons review.

Since covering just the mythics and rares was such a massive undertaking, Travis tasked me with covering the remaining uncommons and commons in the set that seem powerful enough to see Standard, Modern, Legacy, and even Cube or Vintage play. I’ll stick to Travis’ original article format for this and list out the uncommons and commons I like in the following order:

  • White
  • Blue
  • Black
  • Red
  • Green
  • Multicolored
  • Artifact
  • Land

I will not list the uncommons/commons that are bulk, since most uncommons/commons will be bulk and only a select few will wind up seeing tournament play. Also keep in mind that it is really hard for an uncommon to break a $2. In other words, unless the uncommon is insane then it will be hard for it to break $2 so don’t pick up tons of uncommons expecting them to spike in price. If an uncommon is really good also expect it to be in an event deck or other supplementary product, furthering the chance none of us will profit from it financially.

I think the best mind set to be in while reviewing uncommons and commons from a financial perspective is to think about the best way to pick them up cheaper than retail, which usually is to set them aside when you crack them or draft them so that you don’t later have to buy these cards at retail prices when you need them for a deck. Foils are nice pick ups for eternal playable uncommons and commons if they are powerful to be included in Modern, Legacy, or even Vintage decks. Many times I will prefer to pick up foil copies as they will retain more value in the long term.

Alright, let’s dive into the uncommons and commons of Fate Reforged.

White

Lightform
Outside of the Manifest ability, let’s look at what we get with Lightform – a 2/2 with flying and lifelink for three mana. That’s pretty efficient mana-wise. The double white makes it harder to include in decks yet if it proves powerful enough then I can definitely see it being played. If we include Manifest in the mix, then it becomes even better even though we don’t quite know the power level of Manifest yet.

This card is potentially Legacy playable as James pointed out in his preliminary review – the interactions Manifest has with Sensei’s Divining Top, Phyrexian Dreadnought, Enlightened Tutor, and other cards is there but I’m not quite sure if it is good enough without further support. It’s definitely not as good as the blue form, which grants hexproof, however flying and lifelink are still pretty strong on something like Phyrexian Dreadnought.

Regardless of the tournament play, casual player wise I think this is going to be a big hit. Foils are probably good targets and even non-foils could rise in price over time.

 

Mardu Woe-Reaper
We’ve certainly come a long way from Savannah Lions. A cross between Elite Vanguard and Scavenging Ooze, if Warriors becomes a deck in Standard you can expect a playset of this guy to be found in it. Keep any copies you get and hold onto them because if Warriors isn’t good now it still has potential down the road. Cheap foil copies of this card will be a nice pickup.

 

Soul Summons
I’m not sure if this card is any good but it is a cheap Manifest enabler, so if the Manifest emerges and plays any copies of this card then it could be good to stash away some copies for potential future growth.

 

Valorous Stance
This card is going slide very nicely into the currently existing U/W Heroic archetype and is also flexible enough to see play in other decks. I would target foils of this especially.

 

Wardscale Dragon
I wouldn’t bother with nonfoils here. Foils are good pickups for Commander, since eliminating players from casting spells during your combat is nice effect. Casual players will help boost the price of foils as well since many players like to collect foil dragons.

 

Blue

 

Cloudform
This is definitely an upgrade on its cousin Lightform in white. Flying and hexproof are a powerful combination of abilities and similar to Lightform you are getting at least a 2/2 flyer with hexproof for three mana – efficient enough for Modern and maybe even Legacy play. This card has applications in Standard as well, though I think it will shine the most in eternal formats. Picking up foil copies is a good move for the long term.

 

Frost Walker
Though quite fragile, two mana for a 4/1 is a pretty good deal. Just like in limited, in Standard this card is an easy enough Ferocious enabler and could potentially see play there. Definitely don’t pick these up with cash – collect them through limited events and as trade throw-in’s for potential long term gain once Theros block rotates from Standard.

 

Jeskai Sage
For some reason, this card seems pretty good to me in Standard. If you’re playing a deck based on prowess, for the most part this guy is a 2/2 for two that draws you a card when it dies. I think that’s a pretty good deal but I’m not sure if it is good enough for Standard – at least not this Standard. I’m going to be keeping an eye on Jeskai Sage for potential Standard play.

If not Standard, he is definitely Cube worthy. Cheap foils are worth picking up.

 

Marang River Prowler
Similar to the Sage above, this guy might be cute for Standard though I think it doesn’t quite gets there. If you target the river prowler do it for the Cube’s sake rather than Standard. Cheap foils could be a good speculation here.

 

Mindscour Dragon
Stick to foils here due to Dragon collectors and potentially Commander. The effect isn’t that good for this dragon since milling is kind of the opposite of your game plan when you’re beating someone’s face in with flying monsters. My hopes for Commander play could be dashed due to that but hopefully the 60 card casual players still salivate over Mindscour Dragon.

 

Neutralizing Blast
Seems OK in Standard yet multicolored can be real hit or miss depending on the matchup. I think this card will be relegated to sideboard play but could still retain value if more multi-colored cards start popping up in Standard over the next year.

 

Reality Shift
This card is pretty nice, especially in eternal formats. For two mana it turns an opposing beat stick into a 2/2 creature with no abilities. I’m not sure if it is good enough in Standard however it could wind up seeing play if Manifest turns out be a Tier 2 strategy.

Foils are good targets for Legacy, Modern, or Cube play.

 

Refocus
This could be an interesting cantrip trick for U/W Heroic or Jeskai Ascendancy shenanigans in Standard. In eternal formats, foils would be a better target than non-foil since Ascendancy in eternal formats relies on untapping creatures as part of the combo and this card can help continue the combo by drawing an additional card.

 

Black

 

Battle Brawler
Battle Brawler is quite an efficient Warrior – for two mana you get a 2/2 that becomes a 3/2 with first strike if you control a red or white permanent. I could definitely see this getting played in a B/W or other Warriors build in Standard. Pick up copies on the cheap whenever you can in case Warriors becomes a deck and it plays this card.

 

Dark Deal
As James mentioned, Dark Deal is quite the combo enabler. Black hasn’t really ever seen a card like this before so I’m definitely interested in seeing if it makes an impact on eternal formats. Picking up foils seems like the best bet long term as I don’t think it will see much Standard play.

 

Mardu Shadowspear
Dash is actually what makes this card awesome. Not only can you drop it on turn one if you want to play your deck on curve, during the late game you can Dash it into combat to take away those final points of your opponent’s life total if needed. This card isn’t that good during the mid game, which is a downside, but otherwise I think it is a fine card that has a good shot at being included in either a Warrior or other aggro deck.

Though Shadowspear is also the Game Day promo, which could be a good target if you want the full art version, I think nonfoil copies are also good to hold onto for potential future growth.

 

Merciless Executioner
Fleshbag Marauder as a Warrior seems good. You can put it into a tokens deck and use it to your advantage against non-token strategies. It might also might appear in a Warriors deck if it fits along the curve nicely. I’ll be watching this card as time moves along.

 

Noxious Dragon
Not amazing though again foils are nice target for the casuals and collectors of Dragons amongst us.

 

Typhoid Rats
No matter how many printings the Rats get, they always seem be worth at least a few cents on a buylist. Stock up on copies and one day you might find that they will surprise you when you go to collect.

 

Red

 

Collateral Damage
The new spin on Lightning Bolt, this card might not be Stoke the Flames but it is still powerful in token based strategies since you can just sack one of your tokens to Bolt something. Keep any copies you get aside to see if they’re worth anything eventually.

 

Humble Defector
I’m honestly not sure how this card will shake out. Giving it to your opponent is a huge downside that could turn this card into a Goblin Piker in many cases. Yes, there are magical Christmasland scenarios where you give it to your opponent, steal it back with Yasova, then use it again, yet I think that these scenarios are the exception rather than the rule.

What this card really needs are instant speed sac outlets that allow it happen without any side effects, kind of like Collateral Damage. Hmm, maybe there is something to this…

Though Standard might lack these effects, Modern or other formats where giving it to your opponent might not matter (since you plan on winning that turn) are a different story. I would only target cheap foils of this card for now, and only as pure speculation. The power hasn’t been proven yet, however if it breaks out then it’s price could gain quite substantially.

 

Rageform
While not nearly as efficient as its white and blue counterparts, double strike is a pretty nice bonus that becomes better if you can Manifest a good creature. My hopes might be higher than how actually good it is though. I’ll be keeping an eye on this one moving forward.

 

Shockmaw Dragon
Like the other Dragons, the ability is not that great but foils should do well long term.

 

Wild Slash
In addition to a Lightning Bolt variant, this set also gave us a Shock variant that makes the damage unpreventable if you have Ferocious. I can see this being played in Standard, and if not this Standard then definitely post Theros block. Keep some copies stored away for anticipated Standard play and possibly in Modern or beyond.

Due to its ubiquity in being played in almost any red deck and the fact that it is uncommon, I think that Wild Slash could be one of the most financially relevant cards in Fate Reforged.

 

Green

 

Destructor Dragon
OK, this dragon is definitely the most powerful (casually) of the uncommon cycle. Not only do you get a 4/4 flyer in green for six mana, you also get to take out the strongest noncreature permanent when it dies. This dragon should be targeted above all of its other uncommon brethren because it seems like it will be amazing in Commander.

Foils again will be the best targets.

 

Map the Wastes
I think this could actually have Standard potential. I like being able to turn my Elvish Mystic into a 2/2 while also being able to continue ramping. I might be stretching the playability of the card but it can’t hurt to set some aside in anticipation of potential play.

 

Sudden Reclamation
I like the fact that this card is an instant and will return a creature and a land from your graveyard to hand. Though not as mana efficient as Satyr Wayfinder, it can get you big bombs or help fix your mana by getting back previously self-milled lands. I also think that it will almost always get back both the creature and the land. Couldn’t hurt to pick up some copies on the cheap.

 

Winds of Qal Sisma
This card is a real blowout if you can setup a scenario where you come out on top. I think R/G midrange decks might utilize it as a neat combat trick to help clear the way. This is not something that will spike overnight or anything, though it could prove useful in Standard at least in sideboards.

 

Multicolored

The only multicolored uncommons and commons I could see maybe getting Standard play are Harsh Sustenance and War Flare, but I still don’t think they are powerful enough to compete. The multicolored uncommons and commons don’t look that great financially to me.

 

Artifact

The only uncommon/common artifact that I like from the set is Hero’s Blade. This is a nifty artifact for Commander generals, so  I would target both foils and nonfoils on the cheap for potential future demand. No other uncommon and common artifacts look appealing to me from the set.

 

Lands

The only uncommon/common lands in Fater Reforged are the reprinted Khans Refuges, that is the dual lands that come into play tapped and gain you one life. No lands are financially relevant in Fate Reforged

 

Summary

Here’s the top five uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable) in list format so that you know which uncommons and commons I think will hold the most financial value in Fate Reforged moving forward.

HONORABLE MENTION: Reality Shift

  1. Wild Slash
  2. Mardu Woe-Reaper
  3. Cloudform
  4. Humble Defector
  5. Dark Deal

Here is my top five FOIL uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable)

  1. Dragons (especially the Green one)
  2. Cloudform and Lightform
  3. Humble Defector
  4. Dark Deal
  5. Reality Shift

Again, let me reiterate that I am not recommending that players buy thousands of these uncommons/commons en masse trying to make a profit by expecting them to spike. Uncommons and commons are notoriously slow to increase in price, if at all. It takes something like Delver of Secrets level of play to make that happen – and even then it was a few years before it really started going up in value.

I also hope this article will enable players to identify the more powerful uncommons and commons in the set so that they can pick them up for decks if they want to play them, and that it helps players building cubes to identify which foil uncommons and commons are best to pick up.

 

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WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: JAN 18TH/15

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Here’s your weekly update on what’s been shifting around in price in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week.

5 Winners of the Week

1. Survival of the Fittest (Exodus, Rare): $36.60 to $50

Most of the players who started after 2010 have probably never even played with or against this utterly broken value/combo enabler from 1998. In combination with Recurring Nightmare the card makes up a creature tutor/recursion combo that makes Birthing Pod look tame by comparison. Considering it’s only legal in Vintage and busted kitchen table games, Survival of the Fittest has shown surprising gains this week, most likely due to a buyout by MTGFinance folks looking to flip into some hype once they set the higher plateau. If you’ve got some lying around, go ahead and try to unload to free up cash for more valuable targets.

 

2. Chalice of the Void (Modern Masters, Rare): $13.98 to $18.66 (+33%)

Oddly Chalice took a while to really gain momentum as it’s role in holding down the overbearing power of Treasure Cruise decks stocked with a ton of single mana creatures, cantrip spells and bolts became more and more important in both Modern and Legacy this season. Now that’s it’s finally peaking we’re just hours away from a banned list announcement that might make it significantly less important to the metagame. That being said, unless we stop printing good spells that cost one mana, this card will keep gaining value pending a further reprint that should be at least a few years off yet. Getting on the train now is definitely late to the party, and I think I’d wait for a trough post the assumed Treasure Cruise banning before acquiring more. Foils have also been doing well, but I exited with good returns on those over the last month looking for fresh targets with more short-term upside.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Hold

3. Hooded Hydra (Khans of Tarkir, Mythic): $2.15 to $2.62 (+22%)

Hooded Hydra is up another 20%+ this week, adding more gains and hopefully building towards a possible higher plateau. The more I consider the Manifest decks, however, the less inclined I am to believe this deck style ends up doing damage in Standard this winter. On the other hand, I am now more convinced that there are Modern and Legacy applications for Manifest, and that’s its good creatures worth flipping up for cheap and perhaps more specific card selection tools rather than Manifest cards that we need to make it work.

From last week:  “If it makes a key deck tech or a top table this month, expect it to hit $5-6 in a hurry but success is nothing more than a guess at this point so don’t sleep on the info if you choose to go deep. Personally, I think this card will get there sooner or later, so I’ve got about 20 copies sitting around acquired under $1.50.”

Format: Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Speculative Buy

4. Soul of Theros (M15, Mythic): 3.76 to 4.55 (+21%)

Soul of Theros was up again this week, and though the advance wasn’t quite as explosive as last week (+91%), this is still a card that’s gone from bulk to nearly $5 in a very short period of time and made some folks money both in paper Magic and online. It remains to be seen whether the 4-color Whip of Erebos brews, where Soul of Theros adds power to value poster children like Siege Rhino and Hornet Queen in the late game, will end up in a top position with Fate Reforged going legal next week, but I suspect it will still be a powerful and consistent deck, look very threatening indeed.  You should be selling into this hype because we’re almost certainly within a couple bucks of the top of this hype curve.

Format: Standard/EDH

Verdict: Sell/Trade

 

5. Orzhov Pontiff (Guildpact, Rare): $7.44 to $8.99 (+21%)

Pontiff has been a roller coaster ride lately, spiking to $20 or so a week back on the strength of it’s camera appearances during a prominent Modern tournament in Value Pod, especially against Cruise/Delver/Pyromancer decks. If you didn’t sell immediately, you’ve lost value, but there is still time to get out at a good price if these guys have just been sitting around in your collection or bulk box. What happens after the B&R Announcement today is anyone’s guess, so contextually powerful creatures like this one are not where you want to be placing bets just now.

Format: Standard/EDH

Verdict: Sell/Trade

5 Top Losers of the Week

1. Whip of Erebos (Theros, Rare): $5.79 to $5.25 (-9%)

So long as Whip decks stay good after Fate Reforged goes legal next week, this price plateau is likely to stick. No reason to keep holding. Get out now ahead of rotation doldrums.

Format(s): Standard/EDH/Casual

Verdict: Sell

2. Mana Confluence (Hourney Into Nyx, Rare): $12.29 to $11.18 (-9%)

For this land to recover, your deck needs to be both powerful and desperate to fix your mana at the cost of 5% of your starting life total per use. I’m out, but if you feel like a 4-color or 5-color deck will dominate this spring, you can feel free to make a gamble on a candidate to hit $20 again if it happens. If on the other hand you believe, as I do, that Dragons of Tarkir will have additional mana fixing along different color pairs, this looks mediocre at best.

Format(s): Standard/Modern/Legacy/EDH

Verdict: Sell

3. Kiora, The Crashing Wave (Theros, Mythic): $9.41 to $8.74 to (-7%)

Kiora performs best when she doesn’t have to worry about flyers or token hordes or reprints in a Duel Deck. Get out while you can.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Sell

4. Hero’s Downfall (Theros, Rare): $8.43 to $7.84 (-7%)

This kill card is THE SOLUTION almost every time you draw it in the current standard format, except when you’re facing down tokens.dec. The format’s diversity, however, requires a plethora of kill options for different decks, necessitating less than 4 copies of Downfall for many of the decks that want it. As such, there’s not much chance of solid upside heading toward rotation. I’m selling my foreign copies and moving on.

Verdict: Sell

5. Shivan Reef (M15, Rare): $18.62 to $16.67 (-10%)

There is some downward pressure on Jeskai deck popularity, largely being exerted by increased numbers of Abzan players and a bunch of R/W token decks. Regardless, this is still a good place to out assuming you got in on these last summer at $2 or so. Post-rotation that’s the price this will drop back to, so don’t hold too long.

Verdict: Sell

Quick Hits:

  • My top picks for underrated Uncommon foils from Fate Reforged are Cloudform and Humble Defector. Pick some up.
  • January 19th, 2015 is the next Banned & Restricted list announcement and banning of any or all of the following could make big waves and open up new specs: Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time, Jeskai Ascendancy, Birthing Pod. Getting rid of all of the above in Modern opens up the format a ton, and it’s possible Cruise gets the axe as far back as Legacy. I don’t want to be caught holding many copies of that card in foil, so I’ve been selling out, but the rest I’ve decided to risk. Make your call and get ready for the fallout. Jan 12th Update: Birthing Pod took down GPOmaha today, but the top 8 and the field were diverse and interesting. If WOTC was looking for signals from this GP, Pod may be safe, and Treasure Cruise didn’t look any more dominant than would be bearable.
  • Likely MM2 reprints aren’t falling nearly as fast as they should be and I think too many people are underestimating the print run this time around. Get out while you can…these aren’t cards you want to be holding come June.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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The Curious Case of Time Travel

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By: Cliff Daigle

Almost a year ago, I wrote about the 6:2:1 ratio when it came to the ‘usual’ model of how a three-set block ends up opening lots and lots more of the big fall set and a lot less of the following two expansions. Wizards has thrown out that model and Khans block is the last time we’re going to have three sets in a block. (Well, until they do something freaky in a few years)

In case you didn’t know, we’re embarking on a unique set, with Fate Reforged being drafted next to Khans of Tarkir for the next three months, and then with Dragons of Tarkir for three months after that!

I bring this up for a few reasons: First, we’ve got three months of opening two Khans packs ahead of us. Fetches, Sarkhan, Siege Rhino…all of these have not hit their bottom. There’s room for them to go up in price if a deck breaks out, but we’re going to get lots more of the cards you’re already familiar with.

Put another way: Look at the Khans price list. Now take everything below Bloodstained Mire and cut its price by 30% or so. I think the fetches and the planeswalkers will not lose as much value, but the others are going to have their supply increase more than the demand does.

The FRF-DTK-DTK drafts mean that Khans of Tarkir will have the supply cut off abruptly, and prices will bottom out sooner than in most years.

The second point here is that we’re going to get one pack of Fate Reforged in each draft for the next six months. I want to do the math and see where that leads us. We’re going to use the same example of a barely-attended store, which does one draft per week with exactly eight people.

8 people in a draft 3 drafts per month 3 months in a season
3 packs of Khans of Tarkir 24 packs 72 packs 216 packs

 

8 people/draft 3 drafts/month 3 months/season
1 pack of Fate Reforged 8 packs 24 packs 72 packs
2 packs of Khans of Tarkir 16 packs 48 packs 144 packs

So far, everything is the same. No reason to change anything, but let’s add in the final season of this block:

8 people/draft 3 drafts/month 3 months/season
1 pack of Fate Reforged 8 packs 24 packs 72 packs
2 packs of Dragons of Tarkir 16 packs 48 packs 144 packs

 

So in our example store, we will have opened 360 packs of Khans, 144 packs of Fate Reforged, and 144 packs of Dragons of Tarkir, a final ratio of 5:2:2.

It’s very noteworthy that Dragons is also going to be a big set, but will be opened less than half as much as Khans was!

So what do we do with this information?

First of all, I’m freezing out Khans singles right now. I’m not trading for them or buying them. We’ve got a lot left to open.

Second, I’m not going after anything too hard from Fate Reforged, especially at pre-order prices. Too many of those are just going to drop and never recover.

Third, I’m already planning on saving my trade and liquid capital to move on Dragons of Tarkir cards. This set will be opened a full 33% less than any other big set, and even if Magic 2016 is a dud to draft, not many stores will go backwards and draft FRF-DTK-DTK.

Finally, a reminder that Khans block is going to rotate out in Spring of 2016, not Fall. That’s six months early, and a topic you’re going to hear a lot more about.

For the Prerelease this weekend:

  1. If you open the foil alternate-art Ugin, hold on to it. This weekend will represent the largest supply of these cards and the lowest price. If Ugin ends up as an awesome card in Modern Tron decks, then the pimp foil has yet another outlet to fetch a high price. Commander players all want the card anyway! (Including me)
  2. Trade away almost everything else. Supply on Fate Reforged this week is at its lowest, and you should sell into the hype. Everything is hyped, so move it all.
  3. The exception to this rule is Whisperwood Elemental. This is an amazing casual card but it’s also pretty great in Standard, as a free source of card advantage. I think it has room to grow, and multiple sites are increasing their preorder price on it.

Good luck to you this weekend!

 

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