WEEKEND TOURNAMENT COVERAGE: OCT 24-26TH

by James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Weekend Summary

Across three major Standard tournaments this weekend, the story is clear: we are facing one of the most interesting and diverse Standard formats in recent memory. Sure, Jeskai Wins still managed to take down two of three major tournaments (Grand Prix Stockholm and SCG Open Minneapolis) but overall the field looked far more open than even a week ago with a number of new archetypes popping up as serious contenders for best deck in standard.

Across all three Top 8’s, here’s the archetype summary:

  • 4 Abzan Mid-Range + 1 Abzan Aggro
  • 4 Mardu Mid-Range (1 Winner)
  • 3 Jeskai Wins (2 Winners)
  • 3 Temur Mid-Range
  • 2 Whip Decks: 1 Sidisi UGB/1 GB
  • 2 GB Enchantress
  • 2 G/R Mid-Range
  • 1 Mono-Red Aggro
  • 1 U/W Control
  • 1 Jeskai Ascendancy Combo

Keep in mind none of these decks can be considered lucky shots as all of them survived 12-18 rounds of Swiss. Clearly this is a format that will reward careful meta-gaming and skilled play as it evolves.

Noteable cards of the weekend included:

  • Whip of Erebos: So powerful it has defined at least 3 different archetypes this year, this theoretically vulnerable artifact enchantment put multiple players over 100 life this weekend. If there is anything holding it back it’s the potential for these decks to generate incredibly grindy games that have trouble closing out despite the huge life gain. Perhaps something like Empty the Pits is needed to mop up?  Moving forward look for some upward pressure on the price towards $4-5 if these decks continue to perform.
  • Sidisi, Brood Tyrant: In the Sultai Whip versions, Sidisi performed well all weekend and looks set to climb.
  • Keru Spellcatcher came out of nowhere in the Top 8 semi-finals to steal a game for a Temur player that looked lost. It’s a one-of in a single Temur build so far, but my ears are perked up on the potential for a rise above bulk status.
  • Hornet Nest: Likewise, the RG Monster builds running four main deck Hornet Nest did some very nasty things to unsuspecting opponents and it’s possible that this M15 rare can snag a slot in more main decks if the ground keeps getting clogged up by mid-range decks.
  • Doomwake Giant & Pharika: The GB Enchantress decks may or may not catch on, but their ability to chain enchantments entering play through Pharika and the -1/-1 happy giant of doom might be one of the best one-sided wraths options in the format.

In other news Eternal Weekend crowned new Legacy and Vintage champs this weekend. In the Legacy portion of the tournament the buzz was all about the dominance of UR Treasure Cruise/Delver strategies, and it was a surprise to no one that the new Ancestral Recall clone took down the tournament with relative ease. Foil Treasure Cruise, which should by all usual standards by headed to $10 or less, is holding up well at $30 so far with only the spectre of a winter banning to hold it back thus far.

For the Timmies in the room, the presence of a Slivers based deck in the Top 8 had to be a highlight of the weekend, making all of those old rare Slivers in my trade binder shiver with anticipation of a Sliver revival.

The Vintage tourney was won by Marc Tocco playing his Oath of Druids deck with Griselbrand to a big win! Noteable cards in the Vintage decks included the strong showings by Dack Fayden, Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time, much as expected.

Main Coverage

Between a European Grand Prix, the SCG Open Series and the TCGPlayer 50K Championship, we have several prominent Standard tournaments this weekend worth keeping an eye on for shifts in the metagame. With Eternal weekend unfolding to crown champs for Legacy and Vintage, we’re also seeing the ascent of Treasure Cruise in U/R Delver builds. Here’s how events are unfolded and what it means for your paper magic collection.

Grand Prix Stockholm

Top 8

Another standard Grand Prix Top 8 is on the books, and again we see strong evidence that this format is wide open for anyone with a creative deck and skillful play to challenge the top tables.

Here’s our Top 8 archetype breakdown:

  • 2 G/B Enchantress
  • 1 Jeskai Wins
  • 1 Mono-Red Aggro
  • 1 Temur Mid-Range
  • 1 GB Whip
  • 1 Sidisi Whip
  • 1 Abzan Mid-Range

Quarter-Finals:

  • Jeskai Wins ( Matej Zaltkaj) vs. G/B Enchantress (Matteo Cirigliano): Jeskai wins
  • Mono-Red Aggro (Gionvanni Rosi) vs. Temur Mid-Range (Einar Baldvinnson): Temur Mid-Range wins
  • GB Enchantress (Lukas Blohon) vs. Sidisi Whip (Christian Seibold): GB Enchantress wins
  • Abzan Mid-Range (Thiago Rodrigues) vs. Jeskai Wins (Alexander Pasgaard): Abzan Mid-Range wins

Semi-Finals:

  • Temur Mid-Range (Einar) vs. GB Enchantress (Blohon)
  • Abzan Mid-Range (Thiago)  vs. Jeskai Wins (Matej)

Finals:

  • Temur Mid-Range (Einar) vs. Jeskai Wins (Matej)
  • Matej takes down Grand Prix Stockholm with Jeskai Wins in convincing fashion. Congrats Matej!
  • In post interview coverage Matej explains that Dig Through Time should be a 1 of max in the deck to avoid clunky draws and stay fast.

Day 2

Day 2 Metagame Breakdown by WOTC coverage staff shows Abzan down to just 30% of the field, with Jeskai Wins joined by Mardu Mid-Range, both at 14% of field.  Sidisi Whip is the breakout deck of the tournament so far with multiple copies at the top tables and over 7% of the Day 2 metagame, again demonstrating that this format is far from binary and far from solved.

Mikael Magnusson is playing a Riddle of Lightning UR CounterBurn control deck leveraging Treasure Cruise/Dig Through Time for big damage alongside main deck Steam Augery, Nullify and Anger of the Gods. He’s 7-3 going into Round 11. Keru Spellsnatcher masquerading as an Ashcloud Phoenix jacks a Jeskai Charm pointed at it in morph mode to make one of the sexiest debuts of the tournament! Even jank rares are seeing play in KTK Standard. Magnusson then goes on to play an excellent Game 3 and go to 8-3 to keep his Top 8 dreams alive with his rogue deck design.

Round 12 Feature Match showcases UW Heroic vs. Jeskai Ascendancy Combo, highlighting just how deep the top tables are running at this 1000+ player tournament. Jeskai Combo goes to 10-2 looking very much alive as a viable top table contender.

10:20am EST: Christian Seibold wins his final match to run 12-2-1 and likely lock up a Top 8 berth with an attack from his Sagu Mauler out of his Sidisi Whip deck. Worth keeping an eye on Whip of Erebos, Hornet Queen, Sagu Mauler and Sidisi, Brood Tyrant as events unfold. Sagu Mauler is my pick for underrated beater in a standard where many decks have trouble dealing with outside of hornet tokens.

10:35am EST: This battle for Top 8 between Lindstrom and Juza demonstrates the raw lifegain potential of Whip of Erebos while also showcasing the extremely grindy nature of it’s matches against other mid-range decks, that often push the match to full time and potentially deadly draws.

When are 3 Wingmate Rocs not enough? When the Whip is in the house!
When are 3 Wingmate Rocs not enough? When the Whip is in the house!

Day 1

Grand Prix Stockholm represents the first major Euro-Standard gathering of the season, and so far the tournament is unfolding along expected lines.

After 9 rounds, heading into Day 2 the following players were all at least 7-1-1:

  • Sidisi Whip (Christian Siebold): 9-0
  • Temur Mid-Range (Einar Agu Baldvinsson): 9-0
  • Abzan Mid-Range (Oskar Skold): 9-0
  • (Thiago Rodrigues): 8-1
  • UB Control (Thomas Pettersson): 8-1
  • (Matej Zatlkaj): 7-1-1
  • Black/Green Enchantress (Lukas Blohon): 7-1-1
  • Temur Aggro (Christoffer E Larsen): 7-1-1

Note: We’ll post decks for these players as they are posted.

TCGPlayer 50K Championship

Day 2:

Mardu Mid-Range featuring Butcher, Elspeth and Wingmate Roc takes down the TCGPlayer 50K Championship in the hands of Andrew Baeckstrom!

Finals: We have a Mardu Mid-Range playoff for the finals! Butcher of the Horde will be on the podium this weekend no matter what, potentially exerting a bit of upward lift in his price. (Limited to this archetype, the ceiling is likely $4-5 unless it starts winning more broadly.)

Semi-Finals: There’s not a single Abzan or Jeskai deck left in the Top 4! Instead we’re treated to two Mardu Mid-Range decks, a Temur mid-range and a very sexy new R/G build. What a healthy format!

  • RG Mid-Range (Caleb) vs. Mardu Mid-Range (Cody)
  • Mardu Mid-Range (Andrew) vs. Temur Mid-Range (Eric)

Update: It appears that there may be a 4-way prize split going on with the semi-final competitors, with highly casual games in motion.

Quarterfinals:

  • Mardu Mid-Range (1st, Andrew Baeckstrom) vs. Abzan Mid-Range (8th, Josh McClain). Baeckstrom advances on the back of some strong play with Crackling Doom.
  • Temur Mid-Range (Eric Flicklinger) vs. Mardu Mid-Range (Brian Weller Davis). Temur takes this down to advance.
  • Mardu Mid-Range (Cody Lingelbach) vs Jeskai Ascendancy (Byrd)
  • RG Mid-Range (6th, Caleb Durward)  vs. Abzan Mid-Range (3rd,  Ray Perez). Caleb’s innovative RG deck (running 4 main deck Hornet Nest) handily puts Abzan to bed, locking it out of Top 8 on the strength of a back-breaking Setessan Tactics.

Day 1:

After 15 rounds a Sunday Top 8 has been declared, and here’s how it breaks down:

  • Mardu Mid-Range (Andrew Baekerstrom)
  • Mardu Mid-Range (Cody Lingelbach)
  • Mardu Mid-Range (Brian Weller-Davis)
  • Abzan Mid-Range (Raymond Perez Jr.)
  • Abzan Mid-Range (Josh McClain)
  • RG Mid-Range (Caleb Durward)
  • Temur Mid-Range (Eric Flicklinger)
  • Jeskai Ascendancy Combo (Mark-Antony Byrd)

Of special note here is the fact that the Mardu Mid-Range decks shoved into 37.5% of the Top 8. Sure, Abzan still nabbed 2 slots, but a win for Mardu here could be signal that the downward trend on Butcher of the Horde could reverse back into the $6-8 range, especially if the pattern repeats elsewhere this weekend. The presence of R/G Monsters, Temur Mid-Range and the Jeskai Ascendancy combo decks also demonstrates that many of their key cards need to be watched for action.  For Temur this means Savage Knuckleblade, Crater’s Claws and Rattleclaw Mystic are possibly on deck for gains. For Ascendancy, the central enchantment could easily be undervalued after losing value this week.

By far the most interesting deck in this Top 8 is the R/G Mid-Range piloted by Caleb Durward.  Running a full 4 copies of Hornet Nest in the main is a possible early sign that that card is undervalued in this format. A couple of sick on camera plays based on killing the Nest himself to drop blockers or attackers into play at key moments underscored some real under the radar potential that could see this card upgraded from sideboard to main deck duty in a broader context. Also of note in the deck were 3 main deck Setessan Tactics, set up to combo with the Hornet tokens deathtouch ability to wipe the board.  Appearances by two copies of Nissa, Worldwaker and 3 Xenagos, The Reveler, both planeswalkers most players had nearly written off as Tier 2, are also worthy of note. A win in the finals would put this practically brand new archtype into the spotlight and further demonstrate the depth of the current standard metagame.

 SCG Open: Minneapolis, MN, USA

Day 2 Top 8

Here’s our SCG Open Top 8 breakdown for the week:

  • 2 Jeskai Wins
  • 1 Abzan Mid-Range
  • 1 Abzan Aggro
  • 1 U/W Control
  • 1 Temur Monsters
  • 1 Mardu Mid-Range
  • 1 G/R Monsters

Quarterfinals

  • Mardu Mid-Range (2nd Donovan Schulz) vs G/R Monsters ( 7th, Derek Thill): R/G Monsters (Thill) wins
  • Temur Monsters( Robert Caladere) vs. U/W Control (Jeremy Bylander): U/W Control (Bylander) wins
  • Jeskai Wins (Aaron Glick) vs. Abzan Mid-Range (Nick Paulson): Abzan (Paulson) wins
  • Jeskai Aggro (Andrew Johnson) vs. Abzan Aggro (Mike Rekow): Jeskai Aggro (Johnson) wins

Semi-Finals

  • U/W Control (6th Jeremy Bylander) vs G/R Monsters (7th, Derek Thill)
  • Jeskai Aggro (Andrew Johnson) vs. Abzan Mid-Range (Nick Paulson): Jeskai Aggro (Johnson) wins

Finals:

  • U/W Control (Jeremy Bylander) vs Jeskai Aggro (Andrew Johnson)
  • Jeskai Aggro takes down the event in the capable hands of Andrew Johnson to demonstrate that Jeskai is still a Tier 1 standard mainstay

 

 

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

WEEKEND PRICE UPDATE: OCT 25TH/14

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Here’s your weekly update on what’s been shifting around in price in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week. This week, the story is much more about what’s falling than what’s rising as the overinflated EV (estimated value) of Khans of Tarkir packs starts to fall back to earth.

5 Winners of the Week

1. Waves of Aggression (Eventide, Rare): $2.15 to $4.49 (+109%)

Format(s): Modern + EDH

The upswing on this card is squarely rooted in it’s appearance in a new Modern combo deck that uses Goryo’s Vengeance to bring back Narset, Enlightened Master and take extra attack steps to demolish the opponent as early as turn 2. The card is likely to fall back a bit before enjoying a slow but steady increase as additional uses are found, but I would be a seller on any stray copies I happened to have lying around.

Verdict: Sell

2. Hushwing Gryff (M15, Rare): $1.31 to $2.72 (+108%)

Format(s): Standard + Modern

It pulled some Top 8 camera time at the Pro Tour a few weeks back and word has slowly been spreading that this card might be one of the best answers to cards like Siege Rhino, Wingmate Roc and Sidisi by blunting their comes-into-play abilities. With Rabblemaster already proving that M15 rares carry strong gain potential, the question now becomes whether Gryff can find multiple homes and set up shop as a staple or fall back toward bulk on limited top table play. I stored 12 copies at $1, but I’m in no rush to unload now as a future home in Modern seems likely and the post-fee profits aren’t very compelling as of yet.

Verdict: Hold

3. Perilous Vault (M15, Mythic): $6.93 to $8.66 (+25%)

Format(s): Standard

The big gainer’s fall off pretty quick this week, but the big Vault shows it still has some gas in the tank as an M15 mythic with applications in multiple control builds in the new standard that have interest in wiping boards completely.  This card needs some top table finishes in the near future to push over $10 and towards $15 so I’m now comfortable holding until we see how the format evolves, with an eye to getting out if things shift heavily toward aggro.

Verdict: Hold

4. Shivan Reef (M15, Rare): $7.49 to $8.65 (+15%)

Format(s): Standard + Modern

The price on this heavily reprinted rare dual land is being pumped up by the widespread adoption of Jeskai Wins and Jeskai Ascendancy decks. You had a shot at picking these up this summer under $3, so now is a good time to get off the train if you’re holding. Otherwise, you can reliably wait until next summer to get back in for your personal collection.

Verdict: Sell

5. Thoughtseize (Theros, Rare): $16.24 to $19.49 (+20%)

Format(s): Standard + Modern + Legacy

Thoughtseize is to Theros block as Abrupt Decay was to Return to Ravnica, meaning that it’s a multi-format all-star you should have been snapping up by the dozen when the card as under $10 during the summer lows.

Verdict: Hold

5 Top Losers of the Week

1. Jeskai Ascendancy (Khans of Tarkir, Rare): $4.42 to $2.61 (-41%)

Format(s): Standard

This combo bad boy is dropping for a few different reasons. Firstly, it hasn’t been posting enough top table results to make people really respect the card in Standard. Secondly, there’s the general downtrend of KTK rares that is finally kicking in as more product floods the market. Finally, there’s the fear that the card will be banned in Modern this winter for degeneracy. For what it’s worth I think it’s much more likely that Treasure Cruise gets banned in Modern instead of Jeskai Ascendancy as there simply aren’t enough high profile Modern events between now and the next ban list release to prove the combo is too dominant to live.  At $4-5 this was a hold, but if we can get copies under $3 I’m a buyer as the card has applications in many formats and the Standard deck could easily improve with help from forthcoming sets.

Verdict: Buy

2. Dig Through Time (Khans of Tarkir, Rare): $10.29 to $7.82 (-24%)

Format(s): All Constructed Formats

This drop has nothing to do with the power and reach of this card, and everything to do with the general decline in KTK card prices that will unfold into the holidays. Over $10 I was a seller, but in the $5-7 range I’m a buyer for long term holds since the card is an all-time all-star , with the caveat that a slight ban potential in Modern could injure the spec in a big way.

Verdict: Buy

3. Wooded Foothills (Khans of Tarkir, Rare): $13.06 to $10.98 (-16%)

Format(s): Standard, Modern, Legacy, EDH

All of the KTK fetchlands are headed south as expected, and should settle into the $8-14 range depending on Standard usage by the holidays. Interestingly Polluted Delta is still holding the highest price of the five, a situation that should correct itself in favor of Foothills and Windswept Heath, ie the two lands that are actually seeing the most standard play. I’ll be buying a couple of full playsets of these lands, but I’ll happily wait until they bottom out to snatch them up.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

4. Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker (Khans of Tarkir, Mythic) 36.56 to 31.51 (-14%)

As predicted a lack of dominant play and the downtrend for KTK is pulling Sarkhan down a bit. If you’re going to play him, feel free to hold, but if not, I’d be looking to trade into fetches at their lows, since their long term potential far exceeds Sarkhan, who won’t be a great target for gains until he rotates. For him to bounce back this fall, the Mardu planeswalkers deck that Brad Nelson and crew ran back at GP Los Angeles last weekend needs to post some big results across a few important tourneys to unseat Jeskai Wins and Abzan as the assumed dominant decks.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

5. Nissa, Worldwaker (M15, Mythic) $40.59 to $36.94

Is she powerful? Of course she is? Is she owning top tables? Nope. Price memory should keep her over $30 for a while longer, but she’s really not winning enough games to justify this price.

Verdict: Sell

Quick Hits:

  • See the Unwritten is my pick for one of the few undervalued cards in Khans of Tarkir. Easily available around $4, this card has major short, mid and long term upside potential in Standard, Modern (possibly) and EDH.
  • Russian boxes of KTK are sold out across Russia. Think about that for a second. An entire country is old out. They’re drafting English KTK because they’ve cracked everything they could get their hands looking for foil fetch lands. If you’re local LGS is holding foreign Japanese, Korean or Russian boxes, you should be pouncing all over them. Throw them in the closet and smile hard in 2 years when you flip them for 150+% upside.
  • The 2014 SDCC Black Planeswalkers sets are available online below $325 and many vendors are offering above $400 for the 6 cards contained within. I traded a set for $465 in store credit last week. This makes no mathematical sense so get on it.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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M15 Feedback

By: Cliff Daigle

So when Magic 2015 was spoiled, I told you all some longterm price behaviors that I expected to see over time. A week after that, I checked in with those cards. With Khans having been out for a month and M15 being a format that almost no one is drafting, let’s see where these cards are at.

I like to check in with how those predictions are going, and evaluate what’s been good and bad. This is the process: No one is right 100% of the time, but there’s lessons to be learned from the successes and the failures.

Ajani Steadfast – I said to pick up at $5 or less, and he’s at $13 after a high of $20. He’s on the trajectory. I do like him as a casual pickup for the decks with lots of planeswalkers…once he gets to a low enough point. He has seen a little Standard play, and that might be enough to keep him near $10.

Garruk, Apex Predator – My goal is going to be to pick him up at $10, but he’s currently at $15. I think I’m going to revise this a bit: I like picking him up at $15, because he seems like something to evaluate in Abzan decks. He’ll never be a four-of, but showing up in a few sideboards might nudge his price back north of $20. If that happens, the spike might be big, because casual players have already taken a lot of these out of rotation.

Jace, the Living Guildpact – Sultai is not a popular enough clan to warrant playing him. His price looks like it will continue to drop, despite a ‘discard opponent’s hand while you draw seven’ ultimate. We’re seeing lots of Murderous Cut and Dig Through Time, but the one card is just too slow. I had higher hopes for him.

Liliana Vess – Current card seeing a little play, with lots and lots of printings behind her. I’d be surprised if she fell much further (She is a 1-2 of even when played) or rose much higher (There’s a ton of back product, all the way back to being a Lorwyn rare) so there’s little value to be gained here currently. Totally in line with expectations.

Nissa, Worldwaker – Well, I was wrong. Very wrong. I said “I do not expect big things out of her price” and it turns out she’s the heavy hitter of the set. She’s more than twice the price of her nearest competition! This is because she was the most popular upon release, combined with a never-very-large inventory. Her price is going to stay high for the duration of her time in Standard, because of the high initial price and the memory of that. I would be surprised if her price went below $25 before the end of next summer.

Perilous Vault – I said I’d like this card below $10, and here it is. It’s been all the way down to $4, before seeing play at the PT and the GP. I maintain that it is an excellent casual card, but seeing the level it can get to, I think I’m going to be very patient and wait till rotation, picking these up under $5.

Sliver Hivelord – I said it would get to about $7 as people got their single copy for Sliver EDH decks, and here we are at $7 and change. It had a chance to be a player in Standard over the summer, but with rotation, it’s a casual-only card and one that won’t go up for a while.

The Soul CycleSoul of New Phyrexia is indeed about double the others, and has gotten to half its previous price of $10. The benefit to this Soul is that it’ll go into any casual deck. I feel it’s even good enough for Cube, as untapping with it invalidates so many strategies! Soul of Innistrad has a chance to go up, as a millable source of card advantage, but the rest seem destined to fall to near-bulk prices.

The Chain Veil – I was too optimistic. I knew it wouldn’t be much, but while I said it would be closer to $4 than $10, I didn’t see it being a buck. Just too specialized. Notable, though, that the foils are all the way at $11, a classic indicator of a card’s casual appeal.

Ob Nixilis, Unshackled – I said it would never be more than a couple of dollars, and here it is at $1.50. I do have to report that it’s just as good in Commander as I had hoped!

Scuttling Doom Engine – This is interesting. It’s $4 despite getting no publicized play. Maybe it’s a big card in rogue brews. Maybe it’s an easy addition to all sorts of casual artifact decks. Maybe someone is stockpiling them in anticipation of the world figuring out that this was printed as the anti-Elspeth card. I thought it would be lower than it is, so I haven’t tried to trade for any yet.

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth – It’s seeing professional-level play, so the power is there. The Abzan decks especially like it, allowing fetchlands and Temple of Plenty to tap for black. Not to be overlooked is the damage it saves from painlands as well. It’s going to hold at $5 for a while and start creeping upwards over time. I plan on trading for some of these and just setting them aside for a long while.

Waste Not – I told you to dump it at $7, saying it was a $2 card. I was dead on, as it’s at $2.32. It will take a powerhouse discard spell to bring it into Standard play, and if the card is good enough for Standard, it won’t need this to help it out.

Hushwing Gryff – It hasn’t really moved from being $3. Siege Rhino only sort of cares if someone played this against you on turn four. Satyr Wayfinder gets in play before the Gryff. There are some neat abilities to counter, but this is more a Commander card.

What was I most wrong about? Nissa. I underestimated her immediate effect on Standard. I overestimated the supply. She will be a somewhat-played card for her duration. Never too heavily, mind you, but she will show up. There is a case to be made that the more Siege Rhino is played, the worse a 4/4 trample land looks. Time will tell!

The other thing to note is that M15 has very low-value cards. It’s not as bad as Dragon’s Maze, with one big find and everything else just sort of there, but with only four cards over $10, one of the best values in M15 will be Stoke the Flames, a surprise uncommon. The lesson there is that four damage is good, especially when your creatures help you pay for it.

Get While the Gettin’s Good

By: Travis Allen

Perhaps the most common question I’m asked is “when should I sell [some card]?” It’s a reasonable question. You’ve got spare copies that you’ve been saving for a rainy day, say Sylvan Caryatid, and you want to know when you should get rid of them. The goal is simple enough to understand; maximize your profit while avoiding unnecessary risk. While there’s no clear algorithm that will tell you exactly when to sell, there is a heuristic I use when making the decision myself. I’ll provide you with my methodology today. First, two mistakes that are easy for anyone to stumble into when making decisions about selling cards. 

One of the biggest traps of speculating on Magic cards, or even more general investment avenues such as the stock market, is not knowing when to dump a good. There are a few psychological factors that play into this, such as the “sunk cost fallacy.” I can demonstrate this concept with an example from my own recent history. I purchased about $100 worth of Advent of the Wurms a ways back when they were still about $3. As it became clear they weren’t going break out and that I should out them while I could, I instead gripped onto them tighter, assuring myself that someone would definitely bust the card and I would make my money back. Because I had paid the $3 each for them, I didn’t want to sell them for less than that. Instead of taking the $1.50 each or whatever it was I could have gotten for them, I instead held on, waiting until I could at least break even. Here we are today, with the best buylist for my thirty-some copies being $.25.

When you’re considering whether to sell cards, you must divorce your decision from the amount you originally paid for them. If the best time to sell is today, then you should sell today, regardless of what sort of profit or loss you’re looking at. For a better understanding of the topic, I recommend checking out the wiki page.

Another trap when speculating on Magic cards is greed, plain and simple. When Fist of Suns first spiked in early January copies went from $2 to $12. If you had been lucky enough to have some in your possession when the spike occurred, you should have rushed to market. If you were greedy you would have listed the cards for the full $12, hoping to extract maximum value from the sudden surge in demand. Over the span of weeks the price slowly dwindled with a lack of results. If you kept trying to squeeze as much out of them as you could you would have never actually sold any. The card has now settled at $5, which means that if you manage to sell your copies you’d see a much smaller return than if you had just listed them at $9 or $10 immediately after the spike and gotten another fool to buy in. Instead of quickly shipping cards during the wave of hype, being greedy and hoping for maximum profit would have ended up costing you a good $3-$5 profit per card.

Managing to get ahead of a price spike is an excellent feeling. Watching TCG sell out of Master of Waves while you stroke your twenty playsets that you got for $6/card would have been euphoric. Getting in ahead of the spike is only half the battle though. Knowing when to get rid of your copies for a profit can be even more difficult than guessing the next big thing.

Hype-driven spikes aren’t the only times where we fail to sell out when we should. Impending rotations, promises of reprints, and the recognition of price ceilings are all indicators of the time to sell being now. Let’s take a look at some things to keep in mind when considering whether you should sell your copies of a card.

Choo Choo! All Aboard the Hype Train!

When deciding whether you should sell a card, ask yourself if it just saw a massive spike in price. If the answer to that is yes, then you should almost definitely be selling. “But Travis, what if that snake alchemist brew ends up being tier one and blah blah blah.” No, stop it. If a card spiked, ship your copies fast and hard. Nearly every single time a card sees a huge jump due to a breakout performance the price drops significantly from its peak in a matter of days. Master of Waves dropped from a peak of $25(!) to $10 in about two weeks, even though the best possible scenario of Mono-Blue being a tier one deck materialized. Think about that.

Everything went exactly right for Master of Waves. He was a four-of mythic staple in a tier-one Standard deck that dominated the format for months, and still the $20+ price tag was unsustainable.

Take a look at the price graphs on Aluren. Or Boros Reckoner. Or Fist of Suns. They all drop-off from their frenzied height. Exceptions to this are few and far between, and shouldn’t be used as evidence not to sell during a hype phase.

aluren

Remember that we’re trying to be the best Bayesians we can be. A major part of that is not thinking absolutely, but rather probabilistically. If a $1 card hits $10 overnight, you have to think of the future in terms of probability. Which is more probable? That the card continues to climb past the $10, or it drops to half of that within a week? Well, which is more likely – that a $1 card has been so severely undervalued that the real price is north of $10, or that it’s really a $5-$6 card and the market just hasn’t corrected yet? 98% of the time it’s the latter. When a card sees a sudden meteoric rise, it’s simply so much more likely that the card drops significantly rather than continues to gain that it’s 100% right to sell. The one time you sell too early you won’t even have to feel bad, because the last nine times you sold out during the hype you made a killing while the card eventually bottomed out at half of the hype price.

Playability Saturation

Instead of seeing dramatic spikes, some cards experience slow and consistent growth. A good example here would be Jace, Architect of Thought. He bottomed out during the summer between Ravnica and Theros before jumping back into the spotlight after fall rotation. Aside from a very brief spike to $40+ (which may be a data problem; I don’t ever remember seeing him that high), he hung around $20-$25. This was absolutely the right time to sell. Some people may have held on hoping to break $30, but why would that have been a bad idea?

jaot

First we need to consider what formats care about a particular card. While Jace was doing excellent in Standard, his demand elsewhere was nearly nonexistent. Modern, Legacy, Vintage, EDH – nobody other than the Standard crew was looking for copies. Meanwhile, he was already all over the place in Standard. Mono-Blue was running multiple copies. Sphinx’s Revelation decks had the full playset almost without fail. Even off-the-wall brews had a few copies. At that time, I would say that Standard was saturated with JAoT.

There simply wasn’t any room left in Standard for Jace to see more play. Every deck that could possibly be interested in Jace already had them, and there was no other format placing demand on the card. There were only two realistic outcomes: the price sustains, or the price drops. Faced with those two options, you certainly want to be selling.

When you’re looking at a card you’re considering selling, ask yourself: how much more play could this see? How much more untapped demand could exist for this card? When you look at a card like Eidolon of Blossoms or some of the Theros gods, the potential seems huge. They’re powerful cards that could play well in both Standard and casual, and the prices are very low. There’s room to grow. However when you look at Elspeth, Sun’s Champion’s price tag of $32, do you still think the same thing? Do you realistically believe that there’s enough gas left in the tank for her to break $35 or $40? Have other fall set Standard-only mythics had price tags that high?

Consider what demand exists for the card. Think about how much play its seeing in the formats that may want it. Think about how much other cards from similar sets cost at their high point. Think about how much more the card could possibly rise. In a case such as Elspeth’s, the answer becomes clear. Yes, she could manage to eek out a few more dollars, but it’s considerably safer just taking the locked-in profit now and moving on to something with much more potential.

Hello and Goodbye

This factor is particularly salient today, only weeks after Khans release. Card prices are always high after a set release. They’re especially high after a fall set release. (People are excited about what the future holds. This is in comparison to a set like Journey Into Nyx, where the format is already pretty well-developed at that point.) They’re even HIGHER right after the fall Pro Tour, because all the new toys are on display and the frenzy is at its peak. Let’s see exactly what I’m talking about.

ktk

Right now the top thirty or so cards in Khans of Tarkir are worth roughly 20-25% more than the top thirty Theros cards. Keep in mind that the senior set is supposed to be more expensive than the junior! Theros boxes have dried up and MTGO redemptions are over. The stock available can only dwindle. Meanwhile, the drafting of Khans of Tarkir is just beginning. The amount of Khans that has been opened so far is only a small fraction of the total amount that will eventually be cracked. Prices in this set are inevitably going to crash from here. An in-print sent with this much demand is entirely unsustainable. $18 Polluted Deltas? $17 Windswept Heaths? No way this keeps up. Remember, Zendikar fetches were $8-$15 in Standard, and typically a lot closer to the low end of that scale.

At this point in time, a few days past the KTK gameday, you should be selling anything with the Khans set symbol on it. Keep only the exact cards you need to play with and ship the rest. Yes, even that card. Yes, even fetches. Nearly every single card on that list is going to lose value over the next two months. Why would you want to be holding onto toxic assets?

There are two exceptions. You should keep cards you want to play with. You don’t need to sell every single card from KTK. Feel free to keep fetches for decks you want to play or to continue using your Sidisis at FNM. After all, the whole point of all of this is to finance our habit. The other exception is foils. While most will come down, not all will. Dig Through Time foils in particular I’d probably hold on to. They may lose a little bit of value over the months, but not enough to really warrant selling or trading them. Remember that Abrupt Decay foils are now $70. I don’t think DTT is getting there tomorrow, but it definitely seems like it’s going to have an impact in every format, which bodes very well for foil prices.

There will be a card or two in Khans of Tarkir that rises in price from where it is now. Maybe it will be another Ascendancy, or Ghostfire Blade, or Crater’s Claws. I’m not sure which card will be $5 more than it is today. What I do know is that the total amount of value lost from Khans will be far greater than the small amount a single card gains.

Think of it this way. If we add up the value of a single copy of the thirty most expensive cards in Khans, it comes in somewhere around $275. Two months from now, that number will be much closer to around $225. As a whole the set will lose a large chunk of value. Now maybe Ghostfire Blade jumps to $4 from bulk, but unless you are prescient you can’t be sure that will happen. So which would you rather do: trade away all your excess Khans cards, ensuring you don’t eat a huge drop in value on the set as a whole, or hoard all of your Khans cards because two or three of them are going to rise by a few bucks? Getting rid of any excess product you have right now is a 100% guaranteed win.

Nothing to Lose

So far I’ve told you when to sell your cards. Now I’ll tell you when not to sell. This is even murkier territory. Holding onto cards carries inherent risk because you never know what’s actually going to happen. You can mitigate that risk though, and even get involved in virtually no-risk scenarios if you know where to look.

One of the worst things you can do is sell your senior set cards during late summer just ahead of rotation. Our most recent example of this would have been Theros block product during July and August. During those months the summer doldrums are at their most severe and prices are fairly low across the board because of it. Even Elspeth was a full $10 cheaper over the summer than she is today, in spite of the fact that she was one of three or four cards that entirely defined the Theros block PT.

During those hazy summer months there’s basically no real incentive to sell your cards. The absolute floor for a card’s price is typically found during the summer, which means you can’t really lose holding onto a card during that time. If four months ago you made the decision to hold onto Elspeth until October, two things could have happened. One, she could see minimal play in Standard once Khans came out. If this were the case, her price would have stayed relatively stable, with only maybe a marginal and slow loss. The other option is that she continues to be a force in the new Standard and her price rises accordingly, just as we’ve seen it do. Either way, holding onto Elspeth was virtually a zero-risk proposition.

Hold onto your Standard-legal cards through the summer. They won’t be any cheaper in October than they were in July, and it’s far more likely that most of your stock has risen in value, sometimes dramatically. You may even get lucky with random cards breaking out due to a shift in the format after rotation, ala Desecration Demon.

These same rules apply for Modern cards as well, although we’re holding onto them a little longer than Standard cards. Peak Magic prices seem to be around January and February. This is when you’ll want to move any Modern cards you’re looking to get rid of. Again, most Modern staples are at their lowest through the summer and fall. It isn’t until after the first of the year that they start to gain steam. Unless you’re terrified of a reprint, hold onto those Snapcasters and Restoration Angels until February. Today Scalding Tarn is $52, and was $60-$70 before the Khans fetches were announced. But back in March they peaked at a whopping $130 for a few weeks. Part of this was due to GP Richmond I’m sure, although that event wasn’t solely responsible for that much of a change.

At the end of the day, there are a few questions to ask yourself when deciding whether now is the right time to sell your goodies. Did the card just see a huge spike because of some break-out deck? How much more expensive could this card reasonably be, and how likely is it that happens? Given the time of year, is it more likely this card is closer to its floor or its ceiling?

Hot Tips for the Week

  • Hold onto your Thoughtseizes. If you just read everything above, you should have already come to the same conclusion. There’s pretty much no reason on the horizon for that card to lose value over the next two to three years. At worst the price stays stagnant and at best they double up (at least). Look at what has happened with multi-format-staple Abrupt Decay.
  • It bears repeating: sell any excess fetches.
  • Delver of Secrets was only a $5 foil or so while it was in Standard. There’s no way Treasure Cruise or Monastery Swiftspear maintain those foil prices. Wait before you buy in.
  • Any Modern cards you need you should be acquiring now. I’ve barely been around real Magic games for the past two months and I’ve already spoken to several people getting into Modern because of the fetch reprint. We got shocks two years ago, Thoughtseize a year ago, fetches today, and Modern Masters 2 is on the horizon for next spring. Once attention shifts back towards that format, prices will move accordingly.
  • Speaking of Modern, Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time are the new hotness in old formats. Both of them want lots of small spells to fill you up your graveyard. Thalia happens to be excellent at hosing decks attempting to do that, and she’s slipped down towards $3 again. This is a great pickup in trade.

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