Circle of Protection: Life

By: Jim Marsh

Introduction: Daring Thief

I was in sixth grade when I was introduced to the darker side of the world of Magic. I sat across from an unfamiliar player in my school library and played a game much like any other. I probably cast a turn one Wall of Wood followed by a Wall of Ice to hold off attackers until I could cast a large threat like Serra Angel or Gaea’s Liege.

During one of my Untap steps a hand reached from behind me and grabbed my library. I turned around and chased down the purported thief. I walked back to my game to find my opponent and the rest of my cards missing. It was not until years later that I came to realize that the thief and my unknown opponent were working together. They would probably get together later and review their haul and split the proceeds between them. 

I thankfully did not own any Power or even those fancy dual lands that everyone was so keen on. I could probably replace what was taken for a couple of twenties at the time but at that age the loss was devastating. We as players form emotional attachments to our decks and as financiers we are keenly aware of the value tied to inked cardboard.

I have often read of tournament reports that were marred by stories of Vintage or Legacy decks that have gone missing or Cube players that do not return every card they drafted either by mistake or design. There have been numerous articles on blogs and websites about natural disasters that devastate homes and leave collectors starting again at square one. We belong to an amazing community and often those articles are followed up with friends and even strangers donating booster boxes, decks and small collections to help them rebuild.

When I am not spell slinging I am an Insurance Agent and so I would like to take an article to describe what we can do as players to protect ourselves from financial and emotional loss.

Collector Protector

The first thing I did after realizing that this was a topic that would interest you was to call up one of my underwriters. In the insurance world your agent will sell you a policy but the underwriter is the one that needs to review it and make sure that the risk is one that the carrier is willing to bind.

I asked the underwriter if they would be willing to insure a large collection of Magic cards. They were aware of them as a vague concept. They thought of baseball cards that you somehow play a game with. They told me that they would be willing to insure a collection of cards that was sitting safely in binders but that if they were used to play games that the risk would be uninsurable. They figured the Wear // Tear of game play would destroy the cards. I had to explain to them about the concept of protective sleeves. This settled them down a little. This underscores the importance of discussing your collection with someone who at least has a basic understanding of the concept of a trading card game.

The first lesson about insurance is that you are responsible for taking all reasonable precautions to protect the asset that you are asking the company to cover. This means that having a bunch of cards sitting in a shoe box may not get the job done. You want everything neatly organized in boxes or binders. I am not saying you need to sleeve every card in your collection but making sure that everything is appropriately stored and organized lets the insurance company feel that you are taking things seriously. I would also keep my collection away from any water sources or out of reach of small children and pets.

Reparations

If you are a homeowner with a mortgage you are required to have home insurance. Many of you apartment dwellers probably have renters insurance policies in place. I am going to discuss policies in general but coverage will vary from company to company and policy to policy so you will want to discuss this with a knowledgeable agent or company customer representative. If you are a vendor or derive a significant portion of your income from the sale of cards you will want to make sure that you have a Business Owner’s Policy in place with coverage for Inventory and Business Property.

Your Basic Home Insurance policy covers the most common causes of loss including theft, fire and accidental discharge or overflow of water. These are probably the biggest risks that you are concerned about. The term Home Insurance can be misleading. The policy will cover your Personal Property anywhere in the world and not just in your home. Keep in mind that your average policy will not cover flood or earthquakes. They get their own specialized policies.

No policy is ever going to cover neglect or intentional loss. You cannot play Rip It or Flip It and send the bill to your insurance company for the foil Tarmogoyf you unwittingly destroyed.

Your policy will list an amount next to Coverage C which is your Personal Property. This number is probably five or six digits. It is easy to look at that and never give it a second thought since you are covered. Keep in mind that this is meant to replace everything you own in the case of a total loss. This is the maximum that they will pay out in a claim situation. The company is more than willing to settle at a lower number if you cannot substantiate the loss that occurred.

If you read through your policy you will notice that there is a section that sets Special Limits for Personal Property. There are certain types of assets that have built in limits in your policy. Collections including stamps, comic books, coins and trading cards are among the types of assets that will normally be included. Most policies will set of limit of  around $1,000 as the maximum payout for any one loss. A single Modern or Legacy deck could max out that coverage and then some!

Catalog

Most of you will want to have your collections listed as Scheduled Property. This is how insurance companies cover Valuable Items. You will want blanket coverage for your collection. The instinct for an insurance agent that is scheduling personal property is to individually list each and every card on the policy. If you own a set of the Power 9 and that is all you care about insuring then this may be reasonable. Chances are that you have a collection that has tens if not hundreds of thousands of cards. Those cards probably range in price from pennies to hundreds of dollars each.

One of the advantages to having Scheduled Property instead of using your Personal Property coverage (in addition to higher available limits) is that you can insure your cards at Replacement Value instead of Actual Cash Value. Actual Cash Value is what you paid for the cards. This can be difficult to determine in some cases if you obtained a card through a trade or opening booster packs. If you have been playing for more than a couple years then you have probably want to cover cards like Sensei’s Divining Top at their fair trade value of $27 instead of the dollar you picked them up for when Champions of Kamigawa was still in Standard. Replacement Cost is how much it costs to replace the item at today’s market price.

The first question you will be asked is the value of your collection and how you calculated that amount. I highly recommend using the My Collection tool available for free on MTGPrice.com. It helps you enter your collection and track the value of your cards. You can both import and export spreadsheets so that you can update the value of your collection once or twice a year.

If a subset of your cards are stolen like your Cube or your Shardless Sultai Deck then decklists will be an invaluable resource to you. If you are anything like me then you have thousands of cards of bulk commons and uncommons laying around. You may not choose to list every copy of Rampant Growth that you have accumulated over the years but listing X thousand cards at $5 per thousand is reasonable and efficient ways to insure larger collections without bogging yourself down in endless minutiae. It is also relatively easy to keep track of a small list of sealed product like Booster boxes of Modern Masters or Innistrad that you are saving for a rainy day.

Order histories and receipts for major purchases can be helpful. I would recommend taking digital photos or a video of your collection. Make sure that you are close enough to the cards that you can easily distinguish the condition of your cards. If your cards are signed or altered then be aware that they will probably be considered damaged. You will want to keep your photographs or video somewhere safe that is not in your home. In the case of a fire it does you no good if your documentation is lost with the collection. Fortunately cloud storage has made this convenient and in many cases free.

High value cards especially those over $1000 may require an appraisal. You will be expected to pay for this yourself but unless you are holding Power or a Splendid Genesis then you will probably not have to worry about this part. This  will vary based upon the requirements of the insurance company that you are working with.

The cost of adding this coverage to your existing policy or getting a separate policy will obviously vary based upon the amount of coverage that you are purchasing but prices can range from the price of a draft a month to several hundred dollars a year.

Wake of Destruction

In the case that something is stolen or destroyed then the first thing you want to do is to document the loss. In the case of theft call the authorities and file a police report. This may not result in a grizzled detective canvassing the town and hunting down justice by any means necessary but it will provide paperwork showing that you have taken all necessary steps to potentially recover your property. The police and claims adjustor will want a detailed list of what was taken and having a handy spreadsheet will be infinitely more useful than a pencil and notepad after the fact. Emotions will be running high and you may not be able to remember if you traded away three or four Jittes for fetchlands earlier this year. I would also contact your local game store owner and let them know to be on the lookout for someone looking to sell a deck or cube that is identical to your own.

I spoke to a number of insurance companies in preparation for this article and one thing that surprised me was the number of underwriters who feel hesitant to take on new business of this kind due to fraudulent claims in the past. This is where your photos and videos will be worth their weight in gold. It is an unfortunate reality of the insurance industry but due to fraud Adjustors have to treat every claim as a potential crime against the company until you can prove how honest and trustworthy you are. As I said before during a loss you can feel hurt and vulnerable so having an Adjustor call and cross examine you in a half accusing tone can be very jarring and upsetting. The sooner you produce your evidence and they figure out that you are not trying to pull on over on them then the sooner the mood will lighten and checks can be approved.

Fiery Conclusion

Hopefully nothing does happen to your valuable collection. I know you have put in a lot of time, effort and memories into your cards. I hope that this was helpful and informative. Part of good Magic finance is protecting what we do have in an unpredictable world. If do follow this advise you will be able to breathe a little easier in the knowledge that if something happens to your cards then you will be able to rebuild and replace what you have lost. I know that this covers a lot of generalities but the ultimate details will be determined by your insurance provider of choice. This will vary from country to country, company to company and even across different policies depending on your endorsements and ultimately will be up to the Claims Adjustor that is assigned to you. This should at least leave you better equipped to start the conversation with your agent and to be prepared in case anything happens. I am open to any questions below and will do my best to give you as accurate and answer as possible without offering guarantees that I cannot substantiate.

I also want to take this time to announce that my time writing about the game we all love has come to a close for the current time. I have loved the opportunity to discuss cards with you and have enjoyed tremendous support from everyone here on the site. It has been a blast. However real life is making great demands on my time and I find myself having to make sacrifices to meet those demands. I wish everyone well as you embark on an exciting new metagame.

EDITOR’S NOTE: We’ll miss you Jim! Our sincere thanks for all your hard work and excellent articles! (AY)

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WEEKEND TOURNAMENT COVERAGE: OCT 24-26TH

by James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Weekend Summary

Across three major Standard tournaments this weekend, the story is clear: we are facing one of the most interesting and diverse Standard formats in recent memory. Sure, Jeskai Wins still managed to take down two of three major tournaments (Grand Prix Stockholm and SCG Open Minneapolis) but overall the field looked far more open than even a week ago with a number of new archetypes popping up as serious contenders for best deck in standard.

Across all three Top 8’s, here’s the archetype summary:

  • 4 Abzan Mid-Range + 1 Abzan Aggro
  • 4 Mardu Mid-Range (1 Winner)
  • 3 Jeskai Wins (2 Winners)
  • 3 Temur Mid-Range
  • 2 Whip Decks: 1 Sidisi UGB/1 GB
  • 2 GB Enchantress
  • 2 G/R Mid-Range
  • 1 Mono-Red Aggro
  • 1 U/W Control
  • 1 Jeskai Ascendancy Combo

Keep in mind none of these decks can be considered lucky shots as all of them survived 12-18 rounds of Swiss. Clearly this is a format that will reward careful meta-gaming and skilled play as it evolves.

Noteable cards of the weekend included:

  • Whip of Erebos: So powerful it has defined at least 3 different archetypes this year, this theoretically vulnerable artifact enchantment put multiple players over 100 life this weekend. If there is anything holding it back it’s the potential for these decks to generate incredibly grindy games that have trouble closing out despite the huge life gain. Perhaps something like Empty the Pits is needed to mop up?  Moving forward look for some upward pressure on the price towards $4-5 if these decks continue to perform.
  • Sidisi, Brood Tyrant: In the Sultai Whip versions, Sidisi performed well all weekend and looks set to climb.
  • Keru Spellcatcher came out of nowhere in the Top 8 semi-finals to steal a game for a Temur player that looked lost. It’s a one-of in a single Temur build so far, but my ears are perked up on the potential for a rise above bulk status.
  • Hornet Nest: Likewise, the RG Monster builds running four main deck Hornet Nest did some very nasty things to unsuspecting opponents and it’s possible that this M15 rare can snag a slot in more main decks if the ground keeps getting clogged up by mid-range decks.
  • Doomwake Giant & Pharika: The GB Enchantress decks may or may not catch on, but their ability to chain enchantments entering play through Pharika and the -1/-1 happy giant of doom might be one of the best one-sided wraths options in the format.

In other news Eternal Weekend crowned new Legacy and Vintage champs this weekend. In the Legacy portion of the tournament the buzz was all about the dominance of UR Treasure Cruise/Delver strategies, and it was a surprise to no one that the new Ancestral Recall clone took down the tournament with relative ease. Foil Treasure Cruise, which should by all usual standards by headed to $10 or less, is holding up well at $30 so far with only the spectre of a winter banning to hold it back thus far.

For the Timmies in the room, the presence of a Slivers based deck in the Top 8 had to be a highlight of the weekend, making all of those old rare Slivers in my trade binder shiver with anticipation of a Sliver revival.

The Vintage tourney was won by Marc Tocco playing his Oath of Druids deck with Griselbrand to a big win! Noteable cards in the Vintage decks included the strong showings by Dack Fayden, Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time, much as expected.

Main Coverage

Between a European Grand Prix, the SCG Open Series and the TCGPlayer 50K Championship, we have several prominent Standard tournaments this weekend worth keeping an eye on for shifts in the metagame. With Eternal weekend unfolding to crown champs for Legacy and Vintage, we’re also seeing the ascent of Treasure Cruise in U/R Delver builds. Here’s how events are unfolded and what it means for your paper magic collection.

Grand Prix Stockholm

Top 8

Another standard Grand Prix Top 8 is on the books, and again we see strong evidence that this format is wide open for anyone with a creative deck and skillful play to challenge the top tables.

Here’s our Top 8 archetype breakdown:

  • 2 G/B Enchantress
  • 1 Jeskai Wins
  • 1 Mono-Red Aggro
  • 1 Temur Mid-Range
  • 1 GB Whip
  • 1 Sidisi Whip
  • 1 Abzan Mid-Range

Quarter-Finals:

  • Jeskai Wins ( Matej Zaltkaj) vs. G/B Enchantress (Matteo Cirigliano): Jeskai wins
  • Mono-Red Aggro (Gionvanni Rosi) vs. Temur Mid-Range (Einar Baldvinnson): Temur Mid-Range wins
  • GB Enchantress (Lukas Blohon) vs. Sidisi Whip (Christian Seibold): GB Enchantress wins
  • Abzan Mid-Range (Thiago Rodrigues) vs. Jeskai Wins (Alexander Pasgaard): Abzan Mid-Range wins

Semi-Finals:

  • Temur Mid-Range (Einar) vs. GB Enchantress (Blohon)
  • Abzan Mid-Range (Thiago)  vs. Jeskai Wins (Matej)

Finals:

  • Temur Mid-Range (Einar) vs. Jeskai Wins (Matej)
  • Matej takes down Grand Prix Stockholm with Jeskai Wins in convincing fashion. Congrats Matej!
  • In post interview coverage Matej explains that Dig Through Time should be a 1 of max in the deck to avoid clunky draws and stay fast.

Day 2

Day 2 Metagame Breakdown by WOTC coverage staff shows Abzan down to just 30% of the field, with Jeskai Wins joined by Mardu Mid-Range, both at 14% of field.  Sidisi Whip is the breakout deck of the tournament so far with multiple copies at the top tables and over 7% of the Day 2 metagame, again demonstrating that this format is far from binary and far from solved.

Mikael Magnusson is playing a Riddle of Lightning UR CounterBurn control deck leveraging Treasure Cruise/Dig Through Time for big damage alongside main deck Steam Augery, Nullify and Anger of the Gods. He’s 7-3 going into Round 11. Keru Spellsnatcher masquerading as an Ashcloud Phoenix jacks a Jeskai Charm pointed at it in morph mode to make one of the sexiest debuts of the tournament! Even jank rares are seeing play in KTK Standard. Magnusson then goes on to play an excellent Game 3 and go to 8-3 to keep his Top 8 dreams alive with his rogue deck design.

Round 12 Feature Match showcases UW Heroic vs. Jeskai Ascendancy Combo, highlighting just how deep the top tables are running at this 1000+ player tournament. Jeskai Combo goes to 10-2 looking very much alive as a viable top table contender.

10:20am EST: Christian Seibold wins his final match to run 12-2-1 and likely lock up a Top 8 berth with an attack from his Sagu Mauler out of his Sidisi Whip deck. Worth keeping an eye on Whip of Erebos, Hornet Queen, Sagu Mauler and Sidisi, Brood Tyrant as events unfold. Sagu Mauler is my pick for underrated beater in a standard where many decks have trouble dealing with outside of hornet tokens.

10:35am EST: This battle for Top 8 between Lindstrom and Juza demonstrates the raw lifegain potential of Whip of Erebos while also showcasing the extremely grindy nature of it’s matches against other mid-range decks, that often push the match to full time and potentially deadly draws.

When are 3 Wingmate Rocs not enough? When the Whip is in the house!
When are 3 Wingmate Rocs not enough? When the Whip is in the house!

Day 1

Grand Prix Stockholm represents the first major Euro-Standard gathering of the season, and so far the tournament is unfolding along expected lines.

After 9 rounds, heading into Day 2 the following players were all at least 7-1-1:

  • Sidisi Whip (Christian Siebold): 9-0
  • Temur Mid-Range (Einar Agu Baldvinsson): 9-0
  • Abzan Mid-Range (Oskar Skold): 9-0
  • (Thiago Rodrigues): 8-1
  • UB Control (Thomas Pettersson): 8-1
  • (Matej Zatlkaj): 7-1-1
  • Black/Green Enchantress (Lukas Blohon): 7-1-1
  • Temur Aggro (Christoffer E Larsen): 7-1-1

Note: We’ll post decks for these players as they are posted.

TCGPlayer 50K Championship

Day 2:

Mardu Mid-Range featuring Butcher, Elspeth and Wingmate Roc takes down the TCGPlayer 50K Championship in the hands of Andrew Baeckstrom!

Finals: We have a Mardu Mid-Range playoff for the finals! Butcher of the Horde will be on the podium this weekend no matter what, potentially exerting a bit of upward lift in his price. (Limited to this archetype, the ceiling is likely $4-5 unless it starts winning more broadly.)

Semi-Finals: There’s not a single Abzan or Jeskai deck left in the Top 4! Instead we’re treated to two Mardu Mid-Range decks, a Temur mid-range and a very sexy new R/G build. What a healthy format!

  • RG Mid-Range (Caleb) vs. Mardu Mid-Range (Cody)
  • Mardu Mid-Range (Andrew) vs. Temur Mid-Range (Eric)

Update: It appears that there may be a 4-way prize split going on with the semi-final competitors, with highly casual games in motion.

Quarterfinals:

  • Mardu Mid-Range (1st, Andrew Baeckstrom) vs. Abzan Mid-Range (8th, Josh McClain). Baeckstrom advances on the back of some strong play with Crackling Doom.
  • Temur Mid-Range (Eric Flicklinger) vs. Mardu Mid-Range (Brian Weller Davis). Temur takes this down to advance.
  • Mardu Mid-Range (Cody Lingelbach) vs Jeskai Ascendancy (Byrd)
  • RG Mid-Range (6th, Caleb Durward)  vs. Abzan Mid-Range (3rd,  Ray Perez). Caleb’s innovative RG deck (running 4 main deck Hornet Nest) handily puts Abzan to bed, locking it out of Top 8 on the strength of a back-breaking Setessan Tactics.

Day 1:

After 15 rounds a Sunday Top 8 has been declared, and here’s how it breaks down:

  • Mardu Mid-Range (Andrew Baekerstrom)
  • Mardu Mid-Range (Cody Lingelbach)
  • Mardu Mid-Range (Brian Weller-Davis)
  • Abzan Mid-Range (Raymond Perez Jr.)
  • Abzan Mid-Range (Josh McClain)
  • RG Mid-Range (Caleb Durward)
  • Temur Mid-Range (Eric Flicklinger)
  • Jeskai Ascendancy Combo (Mark-Antony Byrd)

Of special note here is the fact that the Mardu Mid-Range decks shoved into 37.5% of the Top 8. Sure, Abzan still nabbed 2 slots, but a win for Mardu here could be signal that the downward trend on Butcher of the Horde could reverse back into the $6-8 range, especially if the pattern repeats elsewhere this weekend. The presence of R/G Monsters, Temur Mid-Range and the Jeskai Ascendancy combo decks also demonstrates that many of their key cards need to be watched for action.  For Temur this means Savage Knuckleblade, Crater’s Claws and Rattleclaw Mystic are possibly on deck for gains. For Ascendancy, the central enchantment could easily be undervalued after losing value this week.

By far the most interesting deck in this Top 8 is the R/G Mid-Range piloted by Caleb Durward.  Running a full 4 copies of Hornet Nest in the main is a possible early sign that that card is undervalued in this format. A couple of sick on camera plays based on killing the Nest himself to drop blockers or attackers into play at key moments underscored some real under the radar potential that could see this card upgraded from sideboard to main deck duty in a broader context. Also of note in the deck were 3 main deck Setessan Tactics, set up to combo with the Hornet tokens deathtouch ability to wipe the board.  Appearances by two copies of Nissa, Worldwaker and 3 Xenagos, The Reveler, both planeswalkers most players had nearly written off as Tier 2, are also worthy of note. A win in the finals would put this practically brand new archtype into the spotlight and further demonstrate the depth of the current standard metagame.

 SCG Open: Minneapolis, MN, USA

Day 2 Top 8

Here’s our SCG Open Top 8 breakdown for the week:

  • 2 Jeskai Wins
  • 1 Abzan Mid-Range
  • 1 Abzan Aggro
  • 1 U/W Control
  • 1 Temur Monsters
  • 1 Mardu Mid-Range
  • 1 G/R Monsters

Quarterfinals

  • Mardu Mid-Range (2nd Donovan Schulz) vs G/R Monsters ( 7th, Derek Thill): R/G Monsters (Thill) wins
  • Temur Monsters( Robert Caladere) vs. U/W Control (Jeremy Bylander): U/W Control (Bylander) wins
  • Jeskai Wins (Aaron Glick) vs. Abzan Mid-Range (Nick Paulson): Abzan (Paulson) wins
  • Jeskai Aggro (Andrew Johnson) vs. Abzan Aggro (Mike Rekow): Jeskai Aggro (Johnson) wins

Semi-Finals

  • U/W Control (6th Jeremy Bylander) vs G/R Monsters (7th, Derek Thill)
  • Jeskai Aggro (Andrew Johnson) vs. Abzan Mid-Range (Nick Paulson): Jeskai Aggro (Johnson) wins

Finals:

  • U/W Control (Jeremy Bylander) vs Jeskai Aggro (Andrew Johnson)
  • Jeskai Aggro takes down the event in the capable hands of Andrew Johnson to demonstrate that Jeskai is still a Tier 1 standard mainstay

 

 

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

WEEKEND PRICE UPDATE: OCT 25TH/14

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Here’s your weekly update on what’s been shifting around in price in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week. This week, the story is much more about what’s falling than what’s rising as the overinflated EV (estimated value) of Khans of Tarkir packs starts to fall back to earth.

5 Winners of the Week

1. Waves of Aggression (Eventide, Rare): $2.15 to $4.49 (+109%)

Format(s): Modern + EDH

The upswing on this card is squarely rooted in it’s appearance in a new Modern combo deck that uses Goryo’s Vengeance to bring back Narset, Enlightened Master and take extra attack steps to demolish the opponent as early as turn 2. The card is likely to fall back a bit before enjoying a slow but steady increase as additional uses are found, but I would be a seller on any stray copies I happened to have lying around.

Verdict: Sell

2. Hushwing Gryff (M15, Rare): $1.31 to $2.72 (+108%)

Format(s): Standard + Modern

It pulled some Top 8 camera time at the Pro Tour a few weeks back and word has slowly been spreading that this card might be one of the best answers to cards like Siege Rhino, Wingmate Roc and Sidisi by blunting their comes-into-play abilities. With Rabblemaster already proving that M15 rares carry strong gain potential, the question now becomes whether Gryff can find multiple homes and set up shop as a staple or fall back toward bulk on limited top table play. I stored 12 copies at $1, but I’m in no rush to unload now as a future home in Modern seems likely and the post-fee profits aren’t very compelling as of yet.

Verdict: Hold

3. Perilous Vault (M15, Mythic): $6.93 to $8.66 (+25%)

Format(s): Standard

The big gainer’s fall off pretty quick this week, but the big Vault shows it still has some gas in the tank as an M15 mythic with applications in multiple control builds in the new standard that have interest in wiping boards completely.  This card needs some top table finishes in the near future to push over $10 and towards $15 so I’m now comfortable holding until we see how the format evolves, with an eye to getting out if things shift heavily toward aggro.

Verdict: Hold

4. Shivan Reef (M15, Rare): $7.49 to $8.65 (+15%)

Format(s): Standard + Modern

The price on this heavily reprinted rare dual land is being pumped up by the widespread adoption of Jeskai Wins and Jeskai Ascendancy decks. You had a shot at picking these up this summer under $3, so now is a good time to get off the train if you’re holding. Otherwise, you can reliably wait until next summer to get back in for your personal collection.

Verdict: Sell

5. Thoughtseize (Theros, Rare): $16.24 to $19.49 (+20%)

Format(s): Standard + Modern + Legacy

Thoughtseize is to Theros block as Abrupt Decay was to Return to Ravnica, meaning that it’s a multi-format all-star you should have been snapping up by the dozen when the card as under $10 during the summer lows.

Verdict: Hold

5 Top Losers of the Week

1. Jeskai Ascendancy (Khans of Tarkir, Rare): $4.42 to $2.61 (-41%)

Format(s): Standard

This combo bad boy is dropping for a few different reasons. Firstly, it hasn’t been posting enough top table results to make people really respect the card in Standard. Secondly, there’s the general downtrend of KTK rares that is finally kicking in as more product floods the market. Finally, there’s the fear that the card will be banned in Modern this winter for degeneracy. For what it’s worth I think it’s much more likely that Treasure Cruise gets banned in Modern instead of Jeskai Ascendancy as there simply aren’t enough high profile Modern events between now and the next ban list release to prove the combo is too dominant to live.  At $4-5 this was a hold, but if we can get copies under $3 I’m a buyer as the card has applications in many formats and the Standard deck could easily improve with help from forthcoming sets.

Verdict: Buy

2. Dig Through Time (Khans of Tarkir, Rare): $10.29 to $7.82 (-24%)

Format(s): All Constructed Formats

This drop has nothing to do with the power and reach of this card, and everything to do with the general decline in KTK card prices that will unfold into the holidays. Over $10 I was a seller, but in the $5-7 range I’m a buyer for long term holds since the card is an all-time all-star , with the caveat that a slight ban potential in Modern could injure the spec in a big way.

Verdict: Buy

3. Wooded Foothills (Khans of Tarkir, Rare): $13.06 to $10.98 (-16%)

Format(s): Standard, Modern, Legacy, EDH

All of the KTK fetchlands are headed south as expected, and should settle into the $8-14 range depending on Standard usage by the holidays. Interestingly Polluted Delta is still holding the highest price of the five, a situation that should correct itself in favor of Foothills and Windswept Heath, ie the two lands that are actually seeing the most standard play. I’ll be buying a couple of full playsets of these lands, but I’ll happily wait until they bottom out to snatch them up.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

4. Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker (Khans of Tarkir, Mythic) 36.56 to 31.51 (-14%)

As predicted a lack of dominant play and the downtrend for KTK is pulling Sarkhan down a bit. If you’re going to play him, feel free to hold, but if not, I’d be looking to trade into fetches at their lows, since their long term potential far exceeds Sarkhan, who won’t be a great target for gains until he rotates. For him to bounce back this fall, the Mardu planeswalkers deck that Brad Nelson and crew ran back at GP Los Angeles last weekend needs to post some big results across a few important tourneys to unseat Jeskai Wins and Abzan as the assumed dominant decks.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

5. Nissa, Worldwaker (M15, Mythic) $40.59 to $36.94

Is she powerful? Of course she is? Is she owning top tables? Nope. Price memory should keep her over $30 for a while longer, but she’s really not winning enough games to justify this price.

Verdict: Sell

Quick Hits:

  • See the Unwritten is my pick for one of the few undervalued cards in Khans of Tarkir. Easily available around $4, this card has major short, mid and long term upside potential in Standard, Modern (possibly) and EDH.
  • Russian boxes of KTK are sold out across Russia. Think about that for a second. An entire country is old out. They’re drafting English KTK because they’ve cracked everything they could get their hands looking for foil fetch lands. If you’re local LGS is holding foreign Japanese, Korean or Russian boxes, you should be pouncing all over them. Throw them in the closet and smile hard in 2 years when you flip them for 150+% upside.
  • The 2014 SDCC Black Planeswalkers sets are available online below $325 and many vendors are offering above $400 for the 6 cards contained within. I traded a set for $465 in store credit last week. This makes no mathematical sense so get on it.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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M15 Feedback

By: Cliff Daigle

So when Magic 2015 was spoiled, I told you all some longterm price behaviors that I expected to see over time. A week after that, I checked in with those cards. With Khans having been out for a month and M15 being a format that almost no one is drafting, let’s see where these cards are at.

I like to check in with how those predictions are going, and evaluate what’s been good and bad. This is the process: No one is right 100% of the time, but there’s lessons to be learned from the successes and the failures.

Ajani Steadfast – I said to pick up at $5 or less, and he’s at $13 after a high of $20. He’s on the trajectory. I do like him as a casual pickup for the decks with lots of planeswalkers…once he gets to a low enough point. He has seen a little Standard play, and that might be enough to keep him near $10.

Garruk, Apex Predator – My goal is going to be to pick him up at $10, but he’s currently at $15. I think I’m going to revise this a bit: I like picking him up at $15, because he seems like something to evaluate in Abzan decks. He’ll never be a four-of, but showing up in a few sideboards might nudge his price back north of $20. If that happens, the spike might be big, because casual players have already taken a lot of these out of rotation.

Jace, the Living Guildpact – Sultai is not a popular enough clan to warrant playing him. His price looks like it will continue to drop, despite a ‘discard opponent’s hand while you draw seven’ ultimate. We’re seeing lots of Murderous Cut and Dig Through Time, but the one card is just too slow. I had higher hopes for him.

Liliana Vess – Current card seeing a little play, with lots and lots of printings behind her. I’d be surprised if she fell much further (She is a 1-2 of even when played) or rose much higher (There’s a ton of back product, all the way back to being a Lorwyn rare) so there’s little value to be gained here currently. Totally in line with expectations.

Nissa, Worldwaker – Well, I was wrong. Very wrong. I said “I do not expect big things out of her price” and it turns out she’s the heavy hitter of the set. She’s more than twice the price of her nearest competition! This is because she was the most popular upon release, combined with a never-very-large inventory. Her price is going to stay high for the duration of her time in Standard, because of the high initial price and the memory of that. I would be surprised if her price went below $25 before the end of next summer.

Perilous Vault – I said I’d like this card below $10, and here it is. It’s been all the way down to $4, before seeing play at the PT and the GP. I maintain that it is an excellent casual card, but seeing the level it can get to, I think I’m going to be very patient and wait till rotation, picking these up under $5.

Sliver Hivelord – I said it would get to about $7 as people got their single copy for Sliver EDH decks, and here we are at $7 and change. It had a chance to be a player in Standard over the summer, but with rotation, it’s a casual-only card and one that won’t go up for a while.

The Soul CycleSoul of New Phyrexia is indeed about double the others, and has gotten to half its previous price of $10. The benefit to this Soul is that it’ll go into any casual deck. I feel it’s even good enough for Cube, as untapping with it invalidates so many strategies! Soul of Innistrad has a chance to go up, as a millable source of card advantage, but the rest seem destined to fall to near-bulk prices.

The Chain Veil – I was too optimistic. I knew it wouldn’t be much, but while I said it would be closer to $4 than $10, I didn’t see it being a buck. Just too specialized. Notable, though, that the foils are all the way at $11, a classic indicator of a card’s casual appeal.

Ob Nixilis, Unshackled – I said it would never be more than a couple of dollars, and here it is at $1.50. I do have to report that it’s just as good in Commander as I had hoped!

Scuttling Doom Engine – This is interesting. It’s $4 despite getting no publicized play. Maybe it’s a big card in rogue brews. Maybe it’s an easy addition to all sorts of casual artifact decks. Maybe someone is stockpiling them in anticipation of the world figuring out that this was printed as the anti-Elspeth card. I thought it would be lower than it is, so I haven’t tried to trade for any yet.

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth – It’s seeing professional-level play, so the power is there. The Abzan decks especially like it, allowing fetchlands and Temple of Plenty to tap for black. Not to be overlooked is the damage it saves from painlands as well. It’s going to hold at $5 for a while and start creeping upwards over time. I plan on trading for some of these and just setting them aside for a long while.

Waste Not – I told you to dump it at $7, saying it was a $2 card. I was dead on, as it’s at $2.32. It will take a powerhouse discard spell to bring it into Standard play, and if the card is good enough for Standard, it won’t need this to help it out.

Hushwing Gryff – It hasn’t really moved from being $3. Siege Rhino only sort of cares if someone played this against you on turn four. Satyr Wayfinder gets in play before the Gryff. There are some neat abilities to counter, but this is more a Commander card.

What was I most wrong about? Nissa. I underestimated her immediate effect on Standard. I overestimated the supply. She will be a somewhat-played card for her duration. Never too heavily, mind you, but she will show up. There is a case to be made that the more Siege Rhino is played, the worse a 4/4 trample land looks. Time will tell!

The other thing to note is that M15 has very low-value cards. It’s not as bad as Dragon’s Maze, with one big find and everything else just sort of there, but with only four cards over $10, one of the best values in M15 will be Stoke the Flames, a surprise uncommon. The lesson there is that four damage is good, especially when your creatures help you pay for it.

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