by James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

ROUND 15 Notes:

• I’ve got to check out for the last two rounds guys, but I’ll write up a late night set of notes as necessary, depending on how the Top 8 turns out.
• Breakout cards now definitively include: Dig Through Time, Jeskai Ascendancy, Pearl Lake Ancient, Perilous Vault, Siege Rhino and Sorin, Solemn Visitor and possibly Sidisi. Sarkhan, Swiftspear, Mantis Rider, and Elspeth all looked like continuing staples as expected.
• Stoke The Flames was present in high enough quantities to maintain it’s crazy $4 uncommon price tag.
• Goblin Rabblemaster and Courser of Kruphix are still in the mix but are not outright dominating as feared. The format is very diverse.
• So far Top 8 looks likely to include a couple of Jeskai brews, a couple of Abzan brews, a couple of control decks and possibly a Mardu deck. Very diverse with few surprises left to be discovered.

ROUND 14 Notes:

• Sorin did good work in Ari’s match, advancing the case that he should be sharing a price tag with Sarkhan based on results
• Ari beats Strasky to put Abzan in position to have at least 2 players in the Top 8 alongside McClaren
• In the Orange (Esper Control) vs. Watanabe (Jeskai Burn) match, Orange dropped an Ashiok, one of the first we’ve seen this weekend, and he’s up a game.
• Ari gives Ajani, Mentor of Heroes a bit of face time on camera
• Strasky deck is notable for 2 copies of Ashcloud Phoenix and Hushwing Gryff to mess comes into play abilities on creatures like Siege Rhino and Wingmate Roc
• Ondrei Strasky on Jeskai Wins (combo) vs. Ari Lax on Abzan mid-range is our feature match this round
• Heading into this round Sigrist is again top man with his Aggro Abzan deck
• Also running 4 Hornet Queen + multiple Sagu Mauler
• Running 4 copies of Sidisi, Brood Tyrant + 4 copies of Whip of Erebos (!) and a single Soul of Innistrad in the main.
• Sidisi Whip being featured as a Dech Tech with Christian Seibold

ROUND 13 Notes:

• Now we’re looking at the first appearance on camera of Sidisi Whip, featuring Soul of Innistrad + Sidisi, Brood Tyrant. Deck pilot is 10-3 and still live for Top 8. An appearance like that would push both of these mythics up the list.
• Owen takes down Oiso and makes Pearl Lake Ancient look even better. Floch beats Brad Nelson, putting 2 UB players in line for Top 8.
• Floch on U/B Control with Prognostic Sphinx, playing against Brad Nelson, on Jeskai Tokens
• Owen goes up a game against Green Devotion using Pearl Lake for the win
• Pearl Lake Ancient getting more camera time. Ebay checks show copies going for about $4 shipped now, up ~75% since start of the event.
• Clever Impersonator on camera doing some work. Also worth noting that Oiso is running Prophet of Kruphix. Look for foil Clash Pack versions to climb if this deck makes Top 8.
• Owen on camera with UB Control vs. Mashashi Oiso on Green Devotion, both at 9-3

ROUND 12 Notes:

• Jeskai Aggro is being featured as the first dech tech of the evening…expecting a push on Ascendancy again tonight
• Standard format being discussed as incredibly healthy and diverse with many decks capable of shifting form after sideboarding
• Levy defeats Cuneo, highlighting Mardu Planeswalkers as a deck to beat. Levy calls the deck grindy and calls Chandra a key source of advantage. Refers to Sarkhan emblem as key in victory.
• Brimaz called out as highly effective against UB Control on the play
• Zack just called out Dig Through Time as the breakout spell of the tourney. We concur.
• Innovative Shi Tian deck also seems to have Polukranos out of the board!
• McClaren does 11 damage on the final turn to go up over Shi Tian
• Shi Tian is playing transformational Jeskai combo, choosing to use Savage Knuckleblade against McClaren on Jeskai burn post-board. Good camera time for the Temur monster could help keep it in the $4-5 range.
• Game 1 to Levy, demonstrating that in a post-Revelation world, Mardu can out draw classic control
• Elspeth joins Chandra to ensure we know neither card is dead in the format
• Multiple Chandra’s taken down by Pearl Lake Ancient in some back and forth post Sarkhan emblem
• Utter End takes care of a Perilous Vault for profit
• Sarkhan goes ultimate and provides a permanent source of card advantage against the control deck
• Mardu Charm clearing the way for Sarkhan to sneak under counters demonstrating the ability of this deck to fight control
• Pearl Lake Ancient getting more top table air time. Not feeling ultra confidant on the prospects, but I like a few sets under $2.
• Cuneo on UB Control vs. Raphael Levy on Mardu Planeswalkers should help us further triangulate the metagame
• Helen announces that Regional PTQ participants will be receiving Liliana of the Veil just for attending. This card just turned into a sell signal but distribution isn’t until April 2015 so I’m a buyer below $40/copy.
• Starting at 7pm EST Sat, Oct 11th

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On to day 2!

Follow along with live video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8MHTE3qT3_U

Day 1 of Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir featured 3 fascinating rounds of draft, followed by 5 highly varied and exciting rounds of standard action. So far the field is strongly diversified but at the end of the standard rounds, the theme was clear: Jeskai and Abzan own this tournament. Mardu Planeswalkers, Green Devotion and G/B Constellation builds also still have a shot, but it’s the Ascendancy and Siege Rhino decks that need to be overcome on Day 2 to win through.

See all of our Day 1 coverage here.

Let’s check in on our noteable cards to see how they’re doing:

• Dig Through Time

If there is a break out card this weekend so far, this is it. Jumping this week from $3-4, to as high as $17/copy Friday night, it’s now running in our predicted $10-12 range. A future in Modern and Legacy will only help ensure that this card locks into the top 10 cards of the KTK for the foreseeable future.

• Jeskai Ascendancy

It’s unprecedented. A tri-color rare combo piece that is seeing widespread play in Aggro, Tempo/Burn and Combo decks all in the same format! That flexibility, manifesting with Jeskai as the highest percentage (20%) of the field, along with a couple of Turn 4 kills on camera Friday night, has pushed the card up towards $10 overnight. If it shows up in 2-4 decks in the Top 8 it should easily hold that price until the meta shifts. In at $3, I’m already a seller at these levels, holding back a playset for standard use.

• Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker

With Mardu showing up as the 2nd most played deck of the tournament, Sarkhan seems relatively secure in his role as the most expensive card from Khans of Tarkir. Missing Day 3 could result in a $5-10 slide, but a Top 8 finish should further cement bid red on the throne.

• Sorin, Solemn Visitor

Sorin is an early success story at this tournament, showing up in both Mardu and Abzan decks and making a strong case for an upswing towards $30. If Sigrist makes Top 8 with his Abzan deck (and it looks very possible), Sorin should top $30 with room for growth.

• Rakshasa Deathdealer

Largely overlooked up to this point, the Aggro Abzan build needs this guy as a phenomenal 2-drop in place of the eschewed Sylvan Caryatid. Speaking of Sylvan, I’m a seller above $15 at this point, unless a green ramp/devotion deck playing the card makes Top8.

• Pearl Lake Ancient

This bulk mythic is now on deck for gains, showing up as the finisher of choice alongside Prognostic Sphinx in U/B control decks. Hype is still low, so a top finish is necessary to pull this up to the $3-4 range where getting in around $1 would be seen as worthwhile.

• Clever Impersonator

This casual favorite did show up in the sideboards of the U/B Control builds run by Pantheon and others, but failed to gain any strong camera time. Current price level should stay steady.

• Hornet Queen

The Hornet Queen is all over the tournament acting as the finisher of choice in multiple devotion decks. Playsets are running $20-$26 this weekend, and there is room for growth on par with Rabblemaster if it makes Top 8 in multiples.

• Fetchlands

They’re in play at every table, but very few decks are running more than 4-6 copies. I’m calling these to fall further on schedule, down below $15 by the holidays.

• Goblin Rabblemaster

The Rabblemaster is showing up in force, but with so much recent growth, it will need a Top 8 showing to avoid a possible slideback in price. I’m a seller at current levels, happily reinvesting in other options.

• Wingmate Roc

It’s getting played in Abzan and Mardu decks in as many as 4 copies. A strong Top 8 showing could see it push over $16 from the current $10-12.

• Siege Rhino

Sigrist called it out Friday night as the “best card, no contest” in his 5-0 Abzan Aggro build. If it makes the top tables, expect a bump towards $10.

Stay tuned through the evening as we update this page with additional notes and findings from the early rounds and offer insight into how the rest of the weekend might shape up.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

 

 

Hey everyone, thanks for tuning into our updates for Pro Tour Khans. I’ve been paying attention to the first two rounds and what is happening so far. Let’s take a look below:

Round 1 Summary

Raphael Levy (Mardu Planeswalkers)

Notable cards from the deck:

• Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
• Chained to the Rocks
• End Hostilities
• Nyx-Fleece Ram G2 & G3
• Utter End
• Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
• Chandra, Pyromaster
• Crackling Doom

Ben Stark (Jeskai Aggro) (won match 1)

Notable cards from the deck:

• Dig Through Time
• Goblin Rabblemaster
• Mantis Rider
• Seeker of the Way
• Brimaz, King of Oreskos
• Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

Park Jun Young (won match 1)

Notable cards from the deck:

• Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
• Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
• Sorin, Solemn Visitor
• Chandra, Pyromaster
• Thoughtseize
• Crackling Doom
• Butcher of the Horde
• Ashcloud Phoenix

Ivan Floch

Notable cards from the deck:

• Prognostic Sphinx
• Dig Through Time
• Hero’s Downfall
• Silence the Believers
• Clever Impersonator

Commentator Input

• They were very excited about Dig Through Time.
• Butcher of the Horde was the number 1 rated card by commentators.
• LSV – Altar of the Brood won match 1 with Jeskai Ascendency, not covered on camera but the amazing 2-0 game was noticed. Only one Altar was played, so probably not much opportunity there but should watch this deck moving forward through the Pro Tour.

General:

• Temples were seen everywhere – more lands came into play tapped then not.
• Pearl Lake Ancient made an appearance as a two-of in control decks.
• Keranos won a game against a control deck
• Perilous Vault – seen at last pro tour, and also seeing play here.
• Dig Through Time doing so much work!
• Deck – Azorius Soul Blade. Notable cards: Ensoul Artifact, Hero of Iroas, Ghostfire Blade, Phyrexian Revoker, Master of Waves SB, Stubborn Denial SB

Round 2 Summary

Peter Steinaa (Kung Fu Tokens)

• Jeskai Ascendency
• Hordeling Outburst
• Dictate of Heliod
• Nyx-Fleece Ram

Shawn McLaren (Jeskai Aggro)

• Anger of the Gods
• Jeskai Charm
• Dig Through Time
• Mantis Rider

Owen Turtenwald

• Perilous Vault
• Aetherspouts
• Thoughtseize

Park Jun Young (again surprising us)

• Empty the Pits (won a game on camera)

Commentator Input

• Unwritten Devotion archetype. Green Devotion, with See the Unwritten. Ferious to get two creatures into play. Splash black for Doomwake Giant constellation effect. Hornet Queen is also a card appearing in some lists.
• Nelson – White/Red Tokens
  • Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
  • Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
  • Hordeling Outburst

• Manfield – Abzan Midrange
  • Sylvan Caryatid
• Blue / Black not doing well. Matches are 0-3 so far.

General:

• Jeskai Charm seems to be the most popular charm, since Jeskai in various forms is everywhere at the Pro Tour. Picking up foils of this charm seems good once the release hype dies down. Still seeing Sarkhan in basically all the red decks.

OK, so what do we know so far?

Based on James’ initial impressions, it seems like there have been tons of winners so far. Sarkhan, Sorin, Hornet Queen, Dig Through Time, and Goblin Rabblemaster all seem ripe for spikes soon after the Pro Tour. Wingmate Roc and Siege Rhino have not seen much camera time yet but as the tournament progresses they should have their time in the spotlight. Siege Rhino at least has been talked about tons by the commentators and they are big fans of the card.

Speculations are also abound. The top speculations at the moment are Jeskai Ascendency, Pearl Lake Ancient, See the Unwritten, Crackling Doom, and Perilous Vault. Based on what we’ve seen so far, all of them have performed very well and are critical parts of the decks they are present in. After spiking, these cards have a pretty good chance of staying higher than their pre-spike price even after the release hype.

Some other cards that could be good pickups are Ashcloud Phoenix, Empty the Pits, Butcher of the Horde, Prognostic Sphinx, Silence the Believers, Altar of the Brood, and Hero of Iroas (from the Azorius Soul Blade deck tech). However, the window will be much shorter with these secondary cards since there seemed to be fewer of them on camera and once the hype form the Pro Tour dies down they will go down in price as well.

Lastly, here are the Theros block and M14 cards that are performing exceptionally well and may see further gains from the Pro Tour results:

• Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
• Thoughtseize
• Hero’s Downfall
• Sylvan Caryatid
• Courser of Kruphix
• Brimaz, King of Oreskos
• Keranos (good against control, won a game in round 1)
• Temples (probably the most important from Theros)
• Goblin Rabblemaster
• Hornet Queen
• Chandra, Pyromaster

by James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

ROUND 8 Notes:

• End of Day 1 Coverage: See you Sat evening around 7pm!
• Sigrist just called out Siege Rhino as the “best card in his deck, not close”
• Based on the strong performance of DIg Through Time, you could do a LOT worse than to order a few of these Japanese Foil Promo copies from the Prerelease (http://www.saitocardshop.com/product/15297)
• Hornet Queen just called out as the “best card” in the G/B Constellation deck that also did well today
• Just bought 20 copies of Rakshasa Deathdealer for 1.75 as it should have room to run to $4-5 if this deck keeps pace tomorrow
• Also worth noting this deck is “too aggro” to run Courser of Kruphix.
• Notable that the deck is running 4 Thoughtseize despite the life loss, to nab removal spells and protect their creatures: 4 Fleecemane Lion, Rakshasa Deathdealer (on track to bump to $4-5?), 3 Anafenza, 3 Herald of Torment, 4 Siege Rhino. Also running 3 Sorin. All of these will gain if this deck wins through on Day 2.
• Shout to FacetoFace Games team member and honorary Canadian Mike Sigrist being featured as the 8-0 Abzan Aggro player.
• Abzan Aggro is at 8-0. Don’t count this one out at all. Siege Rhino may be safe around $5-6.
• Brad Nelson beats Jamie to got to 6-2 with R/W tokens.
• At least a few Ascendancy decks are 4-0 going into this round
• Goblin Rabblemaster being featured as a format staple. <crickets>
• Chandra + Elspeth doing some work for Brad Nelson right now
• Next big Standard tourney is Grand Prix LA next weekend
• Brad Nelson (W/R Tokens) vs. Jamie Parke (Jeskai Aggro) 1st on camera this round, both at 5-2. Nothing unusual here so far. Jeskai Charm may hit $2+ based on heavy play.
• Look to whether Finkel makes Day 2 with See the Unwritten to see if the spec is real

ROUND 7 Notes:

• Just bought up a pile of Astral Cornucopia at .40. A half-chance it hits $1-3 if Jeskai Ascendancy continues to do well as it’s a winter rare. I’ve been sitting on a pile of these in regular and foil for a while, and here’s the combo it needed to do something. Note: there are alternates to the card, so the spec is weaker than it would be if that were not true.
• U/B Control Dech Tech with Cifka on camera: he argues that against 12 mana creature decks going 1-for-1 should be good. Runs 3 Clever Impersonator in the SB.
• Lol, apparently  0 pros agree with me that Villainous Wealth, not Hornet Queen, is the strongest thing to do with Nykthos mana. Hornet Queen just looked great in Green/B Devotion facing Abzan.
• Cards I’ve bought in the last hour: 40 copies See the Unwritten under $4, 12 copies Doomwake Giant under $2
• Cards I’ve sold in the last hour: Dig Through Time, Sarkhan, Jeskai Ascendancy, Fetches
• Abzan and G/B Devotion decks now on camera at 3-0 each
• Jeskai Ascendancy combo wins 2nd game easily against RWG Planeswalkers to put Dave Williams to 5-2. This is looking like THE card of the tourney thus far.
• U/B Control being condemned on camera as “not as good as before”
• Jeskai Ascendancy combo now on camera…expect a run on the card based on that Turn 4 combo kill.
• Finkle is now 2-1 with the See the Unwritten ramp deck.

ROUND 6 Notes:

• Less than 10 copies of Jeskai Ascendancy on Ebay under $8. A few prices posted around $12-13 already. Just sold my Korean copy for $9.
• Jeskai Ascendancy Combo being called out in the 3rd Deck Tech…my top pick to gain so far this weekend. Should be over $10-12 by end of weekend. Other deck components include Astral Cornucopia, Dig Through Time and a singleton Altar of the Brood.
• Ari called out Siege Rhino and Thoughtseize as key cards in his deck.
• Ari takes down U/B Control with Abzan. Notable interaction when Perilous Vault failed to wipe the board because Nissa’s lands aren’t impacted.
• Wingmate Roc and Nissa, Worldwaker now on camera in a 2-0 Abzan build piloted by Ari Lax
• Finkle loses the match to Mardu Aggro, leaving the spec potentially stranded.
• Jon Finkel is on camera playing the See the Unwritten deck. He just lost Game 1 but the buyout has already started. I encountered multiple cart thefts while lapping up 4-5 sets at $4/card. A full 60 copies just got snatched. I expect this card to hit $12+ if Finkle wins or someone gets to top 8 with it.

ROUND 5 Notes:

• Jeskai Tokens and Tempo are showing up in numbers, and the Tokens deck has now been featured in the 2nd Deck Tech of the night….Ascendancy looking primed to bump up if this continues
• A big Empty the Pits just went off for a ton out of the Mardu Planeswalker deck (Park) that is holding the top table and just beat Owen Turtenwald
• Randy B just called Perilous Vault “a real card” on camera
• Fellow Canadian Shawn McClaren goes to 5-0 using Jeskai Tempo
• Pantheon U/B control deck is running 2/3 Aetherspouts and 4 Perilous Vaults
• Butcher of the Horde is seeing play in numerous takes on Mardu builds
• Mihara and the other half of the Pantheon Team are on Unwritten Devotion (See the Unwritten + Doomwake Giant + Hornet Queen) ramp

ROUND 4 NOTES:

• Todd Anderson is showing off Ghostfire Blade in his Ensoul Artifact deck
• LSV is on Jeskai Ascendancy combo using Altar of the Brood + Ornithoptre or Astral Cornocopia to mill opponents out, which he did in Round 1. Updates as we see how many Altar are in the list…
• Ben Stark and David Williams are on Jeskai Tempo
• Raphael Levy is on Mardu Planeswalkers
• William Jensen and Flock are on U/B Control with Dig Through Time, Downfall, Prognostic Sphinx. Pantheon version is running Pearl Lake Ancient as the only finisher.

---

So here we are.

6 weeks of hype, pre-release and release events, early results from SCG and State Championships all culminate this weekend at Pro Tour: Khans of Tarkir. The mixed format event started this afternoon with 3 rounds of Booster Draft and wraps up with the

With the Estimated Value of Khans of Tarkir Booster Boxes currently sitting around $140USD (most fall sets should end up between $100-$110), the results of the Standard portion of this Pro Tour are likely to result in the ascendancy and downfall of a larger than usual swath of cards. All eyes are on the 5 rounds of standard playing out between 8pm and 1:30am tonight to see what the key teams like Channel Fireball, SCG and the Japanese powerhouse squads bring to the top tables.

Early word from the tournament seems to indicate a wide open field, with no major clues that anyone has “solved” the format. In such a scenario consistency and great play should rule the day, so it will be fascinating to see what rises to the top and sets up a fresh round of buy and sell signals.

For Magic speculators, the weekend will be an especially important proving grounds for many of the most hyped cards of the format. Here are some early stories to be paying attention to:

• Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker

First folks thought he would replace Stormbreath Dragon. Then we thought the Dragon might be better. Then we thought we’d play both. Either way, he’s managed a reasonable number of showings in early tournaments and is propped up as the Elspeth of Fall 2014. Currently available around $35 online and $50 retail, he stands to lose the most if he doesn’t make the top tables this weekend. Hype and casual interest could still easily keep above $25, but I’m selling into hype at $35 with confidence, looking to enter lower later this season.

• Sorin, Solemn Visitor

So far Sorin, doesn’t have an obvious deck likely to make top tables and as such, could be headed to a $15 price point. A good showing could reverse that trend.

• Clever Impersonator

Originally pre-ordering close to $20, we have basically no indication that this is a major player in standard so far, and nothing short of a top table appearance in multiples will prop it back up.

• Hornet Queen

She was vastly underestimated in her first 8 weeks of release, with plenty of us picking up unlimited copies under a dollar.  Since Monday I’ve gone from selling $10 sets with a smile to selling $25 sets with a shit-eating grin and plenty of MTGFinance types think a good showing this weekend in Green Devotion and Reanimator decks this weekend could push her over $10/copy like her set cousin the Rabblemaster.

• Dig Through Time

A lot of the focus has been on Treasure Cruise as the most broken draw spell since Ancestral Visions, but as a rare it’s actually Dig Through Time that may have the most financial relevance this fall. A broad showing this weekend in control or tempo decks could push the card over $10, at which point I’d be selling into that hype.

• Fetchlands

They’re clearly some of the best lands of all time, but so far they haven’t made a huge splash in Standard, with relatively few decks running full sets. The early dominance of Courser of Kruphix and his excellent interactions with Fetchlands certainly balances the lack of Ravnica duals to fetch for, but the collapse of Khans EV should still begin with these lands moving down towards the $10-14 range from their current $15-20 range. Only a ton of decks running multiple playsets of 4 will have any chance of keeping prices to the higher side of the downhill range as we move deeper into the season.

• Goblin Rabblemaster

He’s already proved his mettle in everything from Aggro Red to Jeskai Temp and R/G Monsters builds and he’s earned his crown as the top rare from M15. The question is whether the metagame will now warp around him to ensure his token aggro driven strategy is nullified. A top 8 will keep him high. Missing that stage, could see him slide back $3-5 so it’s worth watching.

• Wingmate Roc

First we hated it. A bad Broodmate Dragon they said. Then he started showing up as a great value play and potential finisher in a few different decks and he’s a clear candidate for breakout card of the weekend. As a mythic currently sitting around $13, and with an MTGO run-up this week of ~40%, there are plenty of eyes wondering if this powerful flyer can hit $20+.

• Siege Rhino

It’s been trending down, and could easily move towards bulk unless an Abzan mid-range deck puts this powerful beater to work holding off red and black based aggro decks.

Stay tuned through the evening as we update this page with additional notes and findings from the early rounds and offer insight into how the rest of the weekend might shape up.

 

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.