City of Traders

A Case Study: Goblin Rabblemaster

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By: Travis Allen

Studies in the medical field are typically based on reams and reams of data. Healthcare is a product that every human needs to consume, and legislation by the government to integrate computers into the clinical setting means collecting that data is an integral part of the process. With mountains of data being collected daily, most studies on drugs or diseases or whathaveyou have a bountiful amount of raw information backing them up. It’s a good thing all this data is being collected too. When clinicians are making decisions about a course of treatment for a patient, you want to be sure they’re working with the best information possible. If a doctor is making a recommendation on a surgery or drug based on recent studies, you want that study to model reality as closely as possible. The less data in the study, the more likely it is to be wrong, which means your doctor is more likely to make a decision that could end up harming you. Data is good!

There are always a few people that suffer from highly unique diseases though. Whether they’re pathogenic or psychological, the issues arise so infrequently that there is no plausible way to gather enough data to make statistically-sound decisions. Consider the case of Phineas Gage – back in the 1800’s he had a railroad spike blasted through his head, destroying a big chunk of his brain. Amazingly he survived for another twelve years. This incident was wildly interesting to anyone studying the brain because it gave a rare glimpse into aspects of the brain that were virtually untestable. Yet it was hardly something you could repeat, at least not within a million miles of the hippocratic oath. In these situations the medical community turns to case studies. Case studies are used to examine a single unique event that is basically unrepeatable for whatever reason. While case studies don’t have the statistical significance needed to develop ‘best practice’ decisions in similar situations, they at least provide additional insight for any practitioner finding himself faced with another impossibly rare scenario.

Today we’re going to perform our own case study on Goblin Rabblemaster. Rabblemaster has skyrocketed to nearly $20 recently, which is pretty wild considering he was under $1 at one point! I want to take a look at various aspects of Rabblemaster, compare that to other creatures we’ve seen in the past, and see what knowledge we can extract from the whole process. Hopefully we can identify a key marker or two that will help us catch the next rags-to-riches creature that shows up.

Dies to Removal

“Dies to removal” was the rallying cry of MTGS posters for years, and possibly still is. (I haven’t read the site in years.) No matter how powerful a creature was, if it was highly vulnerable to removal, it was deemed trash. Indeed, it may not have been an unreasonable rule of thumb quite some time ago, when creatures were generally weaker and spells stronger. I would say it was after M10 when the most Doom Bladeable creature ever was $50 and ruling the skies that the rules of the game changed. (Hah.) Baneslayer Angel proved that even if your guy is vulnerable to all sorts of removal, if your opponent doesn’t have it they can lose the game on the spot to a powerful creature.

Goblin Rabblemaster is about as vulnerable as they come. He’s got no protection of any type. He offers no ‘on death’ trigger like Voice of Resurgence does to scare your opponent away from zapping him. With two toughness, any damage dealt beyond the absolute minimum possible will kill him. Clearly resiliency is not part of his selling point.

Capture

How do past threats compare? Last season Pack Rat came down with only a single toughness yet was the scourge of Standard for something like nine months. Rat was even more vulnerable the turn he came down than Rabblemaster is. The flipside of that is that Rat became incredibly resilient as soon as you untapped. If your opponent didn’t kill Rat before you had a second, the copies he put into play made actually killing him nigh impossible. If you missed killing the single rat you had about a turn to sweep him away with Anger of the Gods, and if you missed that window, all that was left was a full-on sweeper such as Supreme Verdict.

Capture

Loxodon Smiter was much tougher to kill. With four toughness he survived (and killed) any other creature in that mana range. There was close to no direct damage in the format that could take him down, and he was immune to Ultimate Price. As far as resiliency on a three-mana body, Smiter was well positioned relative to Rabblemaster. Smiter hung around the $3-$5 for a year or so, but ended up under $3 around the first of the year.

Capture

Both Boros Reckoner and Nightveil Specter saw considerable success during their lifetimes, with Reckoner’s high point being a whopping $30 and Specter’s being $10-$12. Each had only one more toughness than Rabblemaster. Nightveil begged to be killed. Reckoner was a bit tougher because dealing damage to it meant that you or one of your creatures was eating the same damage back.

Capture

Geist of Saint Traft was miserable to kill. Either you flashed in a blocker, had a sweeper in hand, resolved a sacrifice effect, or died to him. Geist reached $35 at one point, and was consistently more than $20.

It seems like being highly resistant to removal isn’t a key component of being expensive, nor is resiliency automatically guaranteed to make a creature expensive. Survivability helps, for sure. But it won’t get a creature there on its own.

Speed Kills

Rabblemaster kills fast. Real fast. Consider this sequence:

T3: Cast Rabblemaster. Make token, swing for 1. 19.
T4: Make 2nd token. Swing for 2 with tokens, 4 with Rabblemaster. 13.
T5: Make 3rd token. Swing for 3 with tokens, 5 with Rabblemaster. 5.
T6. Make 4th token. Swing for 4 with tokens, 6 with Rabblemaster. -5

An uninterrupted Rabblemaster will kill within four turns, counting the turn you cast it. How do other creatures compare?

Pack Rat:
T2: Cast Rat
T3: Make token, swing for 2. 18
T4. Make token, swing for 3 + 3. 12
T5: Make token, swing for 4 + 4 + 4. 0
4 Turns

Loxodon Smiter:
T3: Cast Smiter
T4: Attack for 4. 16
T5: Attack for 4. 12
T6: Attack for 4. 8
T7: Attack for 4. 4
T8: Attack for 4. 0
6 Turns

Boros Reckoner:
T3: Cast Reckoner
T4: Attack for 3. 17
…
T10: Attack for 3. -1
8 Turns

Geist of Saint Traft:
T3: Cast Geist.
T4: Attack for 2 + 4. 14
T5: Attack for 2 + 4. 8
T6: Attack for 2 + 4. 2
T7: Attack for 2 + 4. -4
5 Turns

Desecration Demon:
T4: Cast Demon
T5: Attack for 6. 14
T6: Attack for 6. 8
T7: Attack for 6. 2
T8: Attack for 6. -4
5 Turns

Master of the Feast:
T3: Cast Master
T4: Attack for 5. 15
T5: Attack for 5. 10
T6: Attack for 5. 5
T7: Attack for 5. 0

Our takeaway here is that Rabblemaster kills real fast. He kills on turn six, which only Pack Rat is faster than. Pack Rat has the caveat that he required mana and cards every turn to be lethal. Most creatures simply can’t kill this quickly, especially without any assistance whatsoever. A 4/4s for three is a full two turns slower. Geist of Saint Traft was close, and if you score two extra damage anywhere along the way he kills in four. Of course, if you manage to get five extra in with Rabbelmaster, it’s a three turn kill. While I didn’t list him above, Tarmogoyf represents a similarly brutal clock. If you can get your Goyf up to 4/5 or 5/6 on turn three, you can kill by T6 or T7.

Clearly you’re not often going to be able to cast a three-mana 2/2 and have your opponent spend the entire rest of the game just drooling on their cards. For the most part, you’ll be fighting for board control and not attacking with Rabblemaster every turn. The point isn’t to evaluate board states though, as those can be complicated and unique. Rather, we want to understand how quickly our threat is capable of killing the opponent in a vacuum. The reason for this is that while you often can’t attack unimpeded every turn, you can usually buy yourself a turn or two. How much ground can you cover on these turns? A removal spell on T4 on your opponent’s Courser following Rabble on T3 puts them at 13 already. That’s a lot of pressure that can force them to play the next few turns suboptimally in an attempt to survive. There are also the situations where you’re both in topdeck mode around turn ten that you draw Rabble and slam him. Depending on life totals, Rabble can represent lethal the next turn late in the game.

In looking at this, it seems like killing speed may be a factor to consider. Pack Rat took over Standard for months and is one of the fastest kills in Standard in awhile. It isn’t quite a fair comparison though, because he requires a card and all your mana every turn thereafter. Rabblemaster is the fastest card I’m seeing that doesn’t require any additional input. Geist of Saint Traft is similar, and that was ludicrously expensive. Tarmogoyf is similarly quick, coming down on turn two, and we all know the number on that guy. Other major threats have been comparatively slow. Boros Reckoner obviously wasn’t $20 because of how fast he killed, so clearly this isn’t the only thing to look at. It does seem that very fast zero-to-dead creatures have a considerable leg up though.

The Cost of Business

I think this may quietly be one of the most important aspects of a creature spiking in price. Rabblemaster’s mana cost is real simple: 2R. A single R in the cost means he’s about as easy to cast as possible. With only a single colored mana in the cost, your mana requirements are light: be able to produce R by turn three. In contrast, 1RR is significantly tougher. 1RR means that 2/3rds of your lands need to produce R by turn three, which puts a much tougher strain on your manabase. Any deck planning on casting a 1RR spell on T3 is going to be heavily red, whereas hitting 2R is almost an afterthought.

Consider also something like the 1GW found on Smiter. This is easier than 1RR, and while reasonably easy to hit on T3 for any deck playing it, it presents another challenge: your deck must be capable of producing two colors. Even though hitting two different colors by T3 is easier than double of one color in most decks, you’re still forced into playing a manabase that can reliably generate both. What impact does this have? Consider the twenty-five different one, two, and three color combinations in Magic. Let’s take a look at where a spell costing only R can go.

Goblin Rabblemaster:
Mono-R, Rakdos, Gruul, Boros, Izzet, Grixis, Naya, Jund, Temur, Mardu, Jeskai. Total: 11

Loxodon Smiter:
Selesnya, Naya, Bant, Azban. Total: 4

As you can see, being a single color instead of two nearly triples the amount of decks a card can see play in. Three-color creatures? Beyond decks with the greediest manabases, they fit into only a single wedge or shard.

Looking back at some of those creatures from earlier, we see Pack Rat at 1B. He’s another member of the mono-cost club. Smiter was two colors and was cheap, while Reckoner was…sort of? two colors and was expensive. Tarmogoyf at 1G is $200, Geist was $30 at 1UW, and Demon is 2BB. Both the mana costs and dollar values are across the board. We have expensive cards in multiple colors, while Pack Rat was a single color and was only $6. What’s the takeaway here?

Being restricted to less decks doesn’t prevent a card from being valuable. Being mono-colored doesn’t mean a card will be expensive. However, being a single color definitely helps set the creature up for success. Any good #mtgfinance enthusiast knows that the more decks a card is playable in, the higher the ceiling. Siege Rhino is damn powerful, but you can only play it in one Standard deck. Even if Rabblemaster is slightly less powerful (which I’m not claiming it is), it can show up in eleven times more color combinations. More potential homes means more people that need copies, which means a higher price. I think our lesson here is that an easy mana cost doesn’t guarantee a high price, but it does allow for a higher potential price ceiling than a CDE card.

Availability May be Limited in Your Area

This next one isn’t about what’s written on the card, but rather, the environment it’s been printed in. Rabblemaster comes from Magic 2015, the most recent core set. While we don’t have hard numbers, the community has a pretty good feel for the relative sales. Core sets sell less boxes than basically any other set in Magic. They were Standard-legal for the shortest period of time, the draft environment typically wasn’t too deep, and the set was light on tournament staples. Not only were these all factors, but the timing of core set releases has been in line with the lowest player turnout at tournaments. With such a small amount of product being opened, it’s unsurprising that breakout singles can jump hard in price.

Pack Rat was a major part of Standard, but he was in a fall set, typically the most opened set in a block. Desecration Demon was too, although his price was about double that of Rat. Part of that may have been that Rat was in an event deck. Smiter was in Return to Ravnica, same as Pack Rat. Geist of Saint Traft was in a fall set – but as a mythic rare. Boros Reckoner was printed in a winter set, and a relatively unpopular one at that. I’m sure there was more Gatecrash opened than M15, but I can’t say by how much.

The amount of M15 product on the market suffered even moreso than usual because of MTGO forcing players to V4 around the same time. With the switch from one garbage MTGO client to another garbage MTGO client driving players away, the amount of set redemptions dropped. Again, it’s hard to say by how much, but there’s definitely an effect.

Of course Rabblemaster was also a Buy-a-Box promo, so the number of copies in circulation is higher than possibly any other rare in the set. Even still, a low-selling set combined with an unusually small amount of set redemptions may have been a strong contributing factor to his price surge.

We can see set printing making a difference for other cards as well. Voice of Resurgence was considered to be overpriced for basically its entire time in Standard. The reason was not because the card was lighting Standard on fire for months at a time, but more that barely any Dragon’s Maze was opened because the set sucked. On the flip side, even heavily-played fall-set cards have trouble maintaining high prices simply because of how many copies are on the market.

Availability of product is basically an invisible statistic. We can visit MTGPrice to see how much a card costs, or one of a variety of tournament tracking sites to see what cards are performing where, but there is no tool to see how many copies of a card is on the market. The amount of given product on the market, along with what player demos are generating demand for a card, are invisible to the average consumer. It’s guys like myself and other writers that have some amount of perspective on the situation, although admittedly it’s still all just educated guesses. The amount of product in a market has a large impact on price. The tough part is figuring out how much is actually out there, and what that will translate to in terms of prices.

Double Duty

The last feature we’ll look at today is where Rabblemaster is where demand is coming from relative to other creatures. A card like Snapcaster sees play in nearly every format. How about Rabblemaster?

Standard.

That’s it. He’s not in Legacy or Modern, although he may get there at some point. He’s not particularly exciting in EDH. There’s probably some casual players that want him as he’s tribal, but I doubt it’s any meaningful amount of demand. No, it seems like Rabblemaster is driven almost entirely by Standard.

Loxodon Smiter was mostly Standard demand, although there was some Modern splashed in there too. Certainly no EDH or casual.

Snapcaster Mage was and is played in every format. I’m guessing there’s no casual demand here either, but his presence in competitive play is unquestionable. In the last three years he was as high as $40, although he’s spent most of his time between $25 and $30.

Pack Rat was overwhelmingly Standard. There’s a splash of Modern in there but that’s about it. Desecration Demon was nearly exclusively Standard.

Geist of Saint Traft was a big Standard player, but has also seen moderate success in Modern, and mild play in Legacy. Geist was a big part of Modern a year or two ago, but he’s been on the downswing lately.

Boros Reckoner and Nightveil Specter were exclusively Standard cards.

Deathrite Shaman saw very little Standard play before rotation, yet saw a meteoric rise and eventual post-ban crash within two years. He was near $20 at his height, and was close to $15 until he was banned. Those are impressive numbers for a fall-set rare with absolutely zero Standard demand.

Looking back at this cross-section of creatures it seems like the major driving force behind price for a Standard-legal card is Standard. Other formats can certainly have an impact, as cards like Deathrite Shaman prove. However it’s very tough for Modern and Legacy to drive high prices on Standard cards while they’re still legal. It’s even tougher for EDH and casual markets to do it. Once cards rotate then the other formats can begin applying pressure. Until then though, most cards live and die by Standard demand. In order for a card to be worth a good chunk of change while it’s in Standard but have no actual Standard demand, it has to be a format-changer in both Modern and Legacy, just like Deathrite Shaman was.

Follow-Up

We looked at several traits of Goblin Rabblemaster and compared them to a swath of other recent creatures that have passed through Standard. We talked about resiliency, speed, mana cost, availability, and format demand. All of those factors certainly play a role, although not all equally. Given what we’ve seen so far, it seems like Standard demand may be the single most important factor when deciding a creature’s price. Being a major player in Standard is going to set the stage for big price tags. There’s certainly more to it than that though.

Format demand is important, but it really just opens the door to high prices. From what I can tell, mana cost and ability to kill an opponent are the next biggest factors. No matter how good a card is, if it’s three colors, it just has so many fewer homes than a card with a single color. A joke amongst players of older formats is that to make any deck better, splash green and play Tarmogoyf. A powerful card with light mana requirements can find many homes, which is exactly what is happening with Rabblemaster. Killing people dead is the other big driver of prices. If you’re able to put your opponent at nearly-dead on turn five after playing a creature and two removal spells, that is one solid threat. Pack Rat was wildly successful because of how quickly it could kill in tandem with Mutavault, and Geist of Saint Traft was a big player during his time as well. I firmly believe that had Pack Rat been from any other set or was mythic, his price would have been easily close to $20.

Card availability is important as well, but like format demand, it’s more about unlocking potential rather than pushing prices itself. Simply having few copies of a card in the market is not going to make it expensive. Having few copies of a card in the market along with being powerful on some of those other vectors is what is really going to drive the price. On the flip side of this is a card like Pack Rat. It had everything going for it, but the quantity in the market put too much pressure on its price.

Finally, resiliency doesn’t seem to matter one bit. A creature that is tough-to-kill is definitely helpful, but we’re past the days where it’s a key feature. If you jam your deck full of powerful threats, eventually your opponent isn’t going to be able to kill one. That’s the one that will get there, even if it is just a 2/2.

What’s the takeaway from all this? When evaluating creatures for potential price spikes, ask yourself a few questions.

  • What set was this printed in, and how much of it is out there compared to other sets?
  • What format is going to want this card? Do I want to spec on it because of Modern, or is this going to be a Standard player?
  • What’s the mana cost? How many different types of decks can play it?
  • If I play this onto an empty board on-curve, how quickly will it kill them? Will one or two swings put them precariously low, or do I have to swing five or six times?

All of this relates to creatures that get your opponent dead, of course. Cards like Sylvan Caryatid or Courser of Kruphix play by a different set of rules because they fill different roles. Those are utility creatures, and are definitely tougher to understand.

I hope you found our discussion of Rabblemaster today helpful. Be sure to check out my article series from last two weeks about the structural flaw in MTGO’s trading market, and stay tuned this coming weekend for Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. I’m sure all sorts of wild prices swings will be happening because of it, especially Friday afternoon as people figure out which decks the pros landed on are actually good.

Follow me on twitter at @wizardbumpin

 

The Gilded Goblin

Khans and the Magic Landscape

By: Jared Yost

This week I’m going to give my card-by-card review article template a rest and go for a more holistic approach to how Khans has impacted Magic across various formats. I want to take a look at Standard, sure, but also analyze how Modern, Legacy, and even Vintage could be affected by new additions from Khans of Tarkir.

Standard

We’ll start with Standard, since it has seen the biggest shakeup from Khans releasing due to Khans being added to the card pool and Return to Ravnica block being taken away. From the big events, lets check out decks by the numbers (information generously provided by MTG Top 8 as of 10/3/2014):

Deck # of Decks in Top 8’s of Last Two Weeks % of Deck in format (rounded)
Devotion to Green 11 20%
Abzan (BWG) / Junk 8 15%
Red Deck Wins 3 5%
Boros Aggro 3 5%
Devotion to Black 2 4%
Gruul Monsters 2 4%
Azorious Aggro 1 2%
Mono Black Aggro 1 2%
Other – Aggro 4 7%
Jund (BRG) 6 11%
Orzhov Control 4 7%
Mardu (BWR) Control 4 7%
UWx Midrange 2 4%
Naya Control (RGW) 1 2%
Jeskai Control 1 2%
Other – Control 2 4%


“Other – Aggro” is a decent percentage of the format at 7%. I’m interested the most in these decks since I don’t think they’ve been talked about much and could provide some insight into the direction Standard might go if they put up results at the Pro Tour. The four decks so far in this category include a deck called Robots (which won something called “Garden City Convention 174th The Last Sun Trial ” in Japan), Temur Aggro, Sultai, and Mardu Aggro.

Wow, OK – what is this Robots deck? Let’s take a look:

20 LANDS
12 Island
4 Darksteel Citadel
3 Tomb of the Spirit Dragon
1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

23 CREATURES
4 Ornithopter
4 Daring Thief
4 Chief Engineer
4 Phyrexian Revoker
3 Scuttling Doom Engine
3 Hypnotic Siren
1 Soul of New Phyrexia

17 OTHER SPELLS
4 Springleaf Drum
4 Ghostfire Blade
4 Ensoul Artifact
3 Singing Bell Strike
2 Bident of Thassa

SIDEBOARD
1 Singing Bell Strike
3 Tormod’s Crypt
3 Staff of the Mind Magus
1 Dissolve
2 Negate
2 Triton Tactics
2 Gainsay
1 Ætherspouts

Woah, now this is something that I wasn’t quite expecting to come out of Khans rotation – simply not something I would expect to win a tournament. Keep in mind that the tournament was only 35 people and in Japan, which is most likely why this rogue deck took down the tournament. Still, based on all the weirdness there might be opportunity.

The first cards that pop out to me are Chief Engineer and Ghostfire Blade as playsets in the deck. Chief Engineer is about $1.50, so if this deck takes off I think it could see a bump to $3 or more. Ghostfire Blade at $0.50 is OK but I don’t really expect it to break $1. Only pick them up if you like them, since for now its utility is limited outside of this particular deck. Hypnotic Siren at bulk prices is also a good pickup if you like this deck.

Tomb of the Spirit Dragon as a three-of is hilariously awesome since everyone initially dismissed it as hot garbage, only thinking about the limited capabilities of the card. If you can, pick these up for bulk because they also shine in colorless EDH builds. I think foils of this are a good pickup if you can get them for $1 or less. On the other hand, how much utility does Daring Thief add to this deck? OK, I can exchange my Ornithopter or Springleaf Drum for one of your creatures or artifacts during my upkeep… doesn’t seem that great. I guess it being a 2/3 is cool yet I’m pretty sure this could be replaced by something else.

Overall, the deck is pretty neat but I’m afraid if it catches on more artifact hate will pop up to handle it. Reclamation Sage is a card, as is Sultai Charm, which I’m sure are going to see play in main decks regardless of how this deck plays out. Still though, there could be opportunity here if the deck takes off at the Pro Tour for some reason. It has gotta be an awesome feeling to kill someone with a 5/5 indestructible land!

For the rest of the “Other” decks we have Temur Aggro, Sultai, and Mardu Aggro from a SCG Qualifier in Tallahassee, TN (USA). Notables from these decks include:

Temur didn’t really show us anything new or what we didn’t expect. 4x Anger of the Gods out of the sideboard is a sign that this card can do work against the right matchups.

For Sultai, I’ve heard many players talking about the potential of Sidisi and how good it might be in the upcoming Standard. $7 is not a cheap buy in for a mythic and right now the jury is out as to exactly how good she is. I would advise against picking her up for now, since Sultai would have to become very popular in order for her to sustain $15 or more. There are four other clans competing for popularity in this Standard and Soltai only represents 20% of the possibilities. The risk is too high for me personally.

Rakshasa Deathdealer is pretty cheap, as is Herald of Torment and Nighthowler. Pick up your copies if you like Sultai though I’m not sure how big the gains here might be for Deathdealer or Nighthowler. Herald can at least fit across more than just this archetype so that would be the safest pick up if you are expecting to gain value from one of these three cards.

Moving on to Mardu, four Grim Haruspex and four Bloodsoaked Champion could be a sign of things to come. I would favor picking up Haruspex over Champion right now, since the $5 for Champion is definitely going to go down while Haruspex could go up in value if it sees more play. Three Sorin is something to note however unless he puts up results at the Pro Tour I can only see his price going down from here.

Modern

So Jeskai Ascendency, eh? I can’t believe this thing can get Turn 2 kills, can you? Last week the deck took down a 136 player event so Ascendency appears to be the real deal – at least until people learn how to deal with it.

So here is how to win with this deck. Cast two or three mana dorks. Play Jeskai Ascendency (or Glittering Wish and for Jeskai Ascendency then cast it). Cast a ton of cheap cantrips, all while drawing and discarding cards off the Ascendency triggers. Each noncreature spell you cast pumps your mana dorks and untaps them, so you keep getting more and more mana and casting more and more spells. After casting 20+ spells attack for lethal. Your backup plan is to Grapeshot them to death or Glittering Wish for Aurelia’s Fury out of the board to kill them.

Glittering Wish has already spiked from these results – going from $2 to $16 in a week’s time. I would say that a good target based on the decklist (that used to be hilariously bad) is foil Cerulean Wisps, however it has already been bought out on TCGPlayer and the only copy left is $15… so no opportunity there either. Really, the only option left is Jeskai Ascendancy itself but unfortunately this has already spiked to $5 TCGmid too! It might go higher, however it is only a rare and as more product is opened the price will stabilize or continue to drop, especially if Wizards decides to ban this card if it becomes too oppressive when the next banned list changes are announced at the end of January. Odds are it probably won’t get banned but stranger things have happened.

Outside of the Jeskai Ascendency hype, Dig Through Time seems to be testing well in Scapeshift and other Modern lists like Blue Moon. Foils here are outrageous right now, so avoid them and wait for more product to be opened. Normal copies at $4 aren’t going up in price for a while, and could trend downwards as more product is opened.

Also, we can’t discount the effect that the allied fetchlands will have on Modern. They will greatly reduce the price of manabases and help more players enter the format. This means that the end of absurdly expensive manabases is in sight yet the pendulum could easily swing in the other direction and drive up the price of non-land staples in Modern.

Legacy

Treasure Cruise and Monastery Swiftspear have quickly entered Legacy as new staples. As part of a U/R Delver list that won a SCG Legacy Open they both offer something to Legacy that can’t be ignored. Swiftspear easily becomes a 2/3 or a 3/4 in a single turn with all of the easy to cast blue cantrips and card draw spells, in addition to the cheap burn. Treasure Cruise is like an upgraded Standstill that synergizes extremely well with the objective of U/R Delver, which plays nothing but cheap burn spells and fetchlands to quickly fill up the graveyard. Regular copies of both aren’t moving in quite some time, so pick them up for bulk and when you draft / play sealed and hold onto them. Foils will drop in price over the next several months – right now their prices are maintained primarily by hype.

Some other cards from Khans that have shown up in legacy are Dig Through Time and Sultai Charm. Nothing that is going to warp the format though something to note is that Dig Through Time has both Modern and Legacy appeal.

Vintage

Nothing from Khans has appeared in Vintage yet, though Brian Demars wrote a detailed first impressions review of Khans in terms of Vintage over at SCG. Some of the highlights include:

A Top 5 List

I would keep an eye on Anafenza, Sultai Charm, and Ugin’s Nexus foils over the next two to three months based on the review. Anafenza foils are currently $15, while Sultai Charm and Ugin’s Nexus are around $8 for foils. They might drop as more product is released and the release hype dies down.

Avoid Mantis Rider for now. If you want to speculate, picking up Grim Haruspex foils for $2 each could yield sizable rewards in the future.

Other Notables

  • Clever Impersonator, to be used as one-of in a control deck to answer various threats
    • Foils of this are around $40 right now, so I would avoid them and wait for the release hype to die down before trying to pick up a foil copy.
  • Treasure Cruise and Murderous Cut, as fringe Dredge role players
    • Again, foil prices are driven by hype so wait for the hype to die down.

Just want to mention that you should read Brian’s article because it gives a great overview of how Khans could affect Vintage.

Summary

Khans cards seem to have found a home everywhere except for Vintage, and even though we haven’t seen any results in Vintage there could be a few that are included in future lists based on Brian’s analysis.

For the most part, if you are picking up cards for financial value you are going to want to wait for the hype to die down unless the card is from Theros block or is currently a Khans bulk rare. These are the types of cards that are going to gain over the next few weeks, especially after the Pro Tour weekend depending on which cards are featured in the Top 8 decks.

Weekend Update

Weekend Update for 10/4/14

3 Comments

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker (Khans of Tarkir)
From $26.32 to $30.49 (15.84%)

If the first weekend of Khans standard is any indication then Sarkhan is the planeswalker we will be seeing the most of during the coming months.

He is being run in a variety of Standard Midrange and Control decks in every combination of colors that include red. He also somehow made his way into some Monogreen Devotion decks. He is usually used anywhere from two to four copies depending on the needs of the deck.

He is removal, a threat and his ultimate promises insane card advantage. It is everything that a Planeswalker should be. If you cast him and attack with his dragon form you can ensure triggers for Ferocious, Raid and Prowess. He just goes with everything.

Some stores are already pricing him at up to $40.

If we look at the Top 8 decklists from both SCG Standard tournaments on 9/28/2014 we see that eighteen copies of Sarkhan were used in nine different decks.

There were twenty-five Stormbreath Dragons across six different decks. Yet Stormbreath is half the price of Sarkhan. This inequity will be rectified as more Khans is opened. Theros was the most opened set when it came out and Khans is going to shatter that record.

I would try to trade any copies of Sarkhan for two copies of Stormbreath Dragon or rotating Return to Ravnica staples like shocklands and Abrupt Decay. In a few months this will look a lot better in your binder.

9. Sylvan Caryatid (Theros)
From $12.08 to $14.87 (23.10%)

I stated a few weeks that I thought that Courser of Kruphix would be the most played creature in Standard after rotation. Courser is doing well for itself but not as well as Sylvan Caryatid.

There were forty-two copies of Courser in the two Top 8s this weekend. Caryatid beat that by a full play set.

You cannot overestimate the importance of early color fixing and acceleration in a wedge set.

It was even used in the Modern Jeskai Ascendancy deck that took first place at tne IV Arcanis Deluxe Main Event. Caryatid is also making its presence known in Modern Gift Control and Loam decks.

Since it is seeing Modern play I am scratching my head why regular copies are almost the less than $20.

I could see regular copies going for that this weekend. Grab some foils instead.

8. Treasure Cruise (Khans of Tarkir Foil)
From $14.99 to $19.49 (30.02%)

Apparently a conditional Ancestral Recall is still really good.

It was a piece of Modern Jeskai Ascendency and was playing as a four of in the winning UR Delver Deck in the SCG Legacy Open in Edison on 9/28/2014. It was played alongside Brainstorm, Ponder and Gitaxian Probe. That should tell you something about relative power level of the card.

The foil copies are commanding a premium but they are commons. I would unload mine as soon as possible. Modern and Legacy players love their foils but as more boxes are opened the price of these are going to coming down. Just think of the foil Ensoul Artifacts that have sunk from $20 to $13 over the past few weeks.

As you draft make sure you do not let any foil Cruises pass you by.

7. Sidisi, Brood Tyrant (Khans of Tarkir)
From $4.50 to $6.13 (36.22%)

Sidisi is going to be a popular commander. She works well with Dredge and Reanimator strategies which are always popular in the format.

She can also enable a color combination for zombie decks.

She has not seen any real competitive play yet so I am leery of picking copies up.

Foil copies will be a good hold for the long term. They are $15 but buylists are offering $10. I would not mind trading for them around that price.

6. Sultai Charm (Khans of Tarkir Foil)
From $4.94 to $8.44 (70.85%)

It gets rid of most creatures, artifacts and enchantments or just draws more gas.

It has been used in Legacy Sultai Delver decks. It is extraordinarily strong in Control and Midrange decks. There is almost never a time when most of its modes are not active.

All of the wedge charms will be popular in commander and casual formats. I would target foils. Some like Sultai Charm that are used in Modern or Legacy will be excellent long term holds.

5. Jeskai Ascandency (Khans of Tarkir Foil)
From $5.23 to $8.98 (71.70%)

Outside of fetchlands I saw more conversations about this card than any other. Johnnies were hard at work making infinite combos out of jank but they finally got there.

It won got first place in the IV Arcanis Deluxe Modern Main Event.

If you have any foil Cerulean Wisps I would sell them into the hype as soon as you can.

Jeskai Ascendency Storm is going to be a presence unless it gets banned. If you were fortunate enough to get your copies for $3 a few weeks ago you have already tripled your investment. I say take your earnings.

4. Ashcloud Phoenix (Khans of Tarkir)
From $2.80 to $5.69 (103.21%)

Ashcloud Phoenix is a recurring evasive threat. It is only played in the sideboard of Jeskai Midrange and nowhere outside of standard. It will probably settle back around $2 where casual interest holds other phoenixes.

I cannot find any justification for the price spike. I would trade these away to anyone who expresses any interest.

3. Monastery Swiftspear (Khans of Tarkir Foil)
From $9.51 to $24.99

Do we have the new Goblin Guide or Vexing Devil? The short answer is probably not.

It was included in that first place Legacy UR Delver deck in SCG New Jersey as a play set in the main deck.

It will be popular in Red Deck wins and in absolutely nuts with Searing Blaze or Searing Blood.

It is easy to stare at it and think of magical Christmasland where you can play a few Lightning Bolts and Gitaxian Probes and push through for large chunks of damage. It is also easy to see it staring across the battlefield at a Deathrite Shaman or Stoneforge Mystic with an empty hand and be impotent in a way that no Goblin Guide will ever be.

I could be wrong. I would rather sell the card at its likely high and let others figure out its role in the metagame.

2. Mantis Rider (Khans of Tarkir)
From $2.07 to $6.24 (201.45%)

I have always had a soft spot for Lightning Angel. They took one of the most efficient and evasive threats and made it even more efficient.

It plays offense, defense and loves to help you convoke Stoke the Flames when all is said and done.

Speaking of Stoke the Flames, did you know that it is now a $4 to $5 card? Trade those away for painlands and scrylands while you can.

I have a feeling we are going to see a lot of Mantis Riders clogging the skies during Khans standard. It is a great inclusion in Jeskai Midrange.

SCG New Jersey had two copies of Jeskai Midrange in the Top 8 including the winner of the tournament.

I know this will sound a little repetitive but I cannot stress how much Khans will be opened soon. Your best bet is to take all of these winning cards and convert them into staples or cash before supply catches up to demand.

1. Glittering Wish (Future Sight)
From $2.42 to $14.99 (519.42%)

Glittering Wish has been sitting around Modern sideboards for a long time but Jeskai Ascendancy really makes it sing.

The deck plays three copies of the Ascendancy in the main deck and one in the sideboard. The four copies of Glittering Wish allow the player to find the crucial combo piece or any of the toolbox of answers out of the sideboard.

This will be Glittering Wishes’ finest moment. Sell into the hype before Wizards has to emergency ban Jeskai Ascendency.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Sorin, Solemn Visitor (Khans of Tarkir)
From $29.10 to $27.02 (-7.15%)

Sorin did alright for himself this weekend but he was overshadowed by Sarkhan. Sorin is great in Mardu Midrange and Control decks.

He has tremendous synergy with Butcher of the Horde, Goblin Rabblemaster, and Brimaz. The decks threats are impressive and versatile.

Unfortunately only one copy made either Top 8 on the 28th.

It is hard to justify a $30 price tag without the results to back it up. I think he will continue to drop but I would keep an eye out if he gets below $15.

4. Griselbrand
From $21.86 to $20.09 (-8.10%)

He is the threat to reanimate in Modern and Legacy. You can use Sneak Attack, Omniscience, Dread Return, Show and Tell or whatever else you like but if you are in the market to cheat creatures into play then chances are you have a play set of Griselbrand alongside Emrakul.

The reason his price is dipping is that he has been announced as the 2015 GP Promo. Everyone who enters a GP Main event in 2015 will receive a copy.

I decided to look back on the price history of cards that had previous GP Promos Goblin Guide and Batterskull.

Both of them had their lowest prices after the announcement of the promo but before distribution. The reprint did not have any detrimental effects. You could point out the rise of Legacy Burn or the printing of True-Name Nemesis that helped the cards get a new foothold. The important thing is that Wizards want the promos to matter. It wants their promo cards to appear on camera and make people dream of being in the GP themselves. It supports the decks.

This should alleviate your worries that Griselbrand is going to be banned any time soon.

If you see anyone offering Griselbrand at $10 or $15 because there is a reprint coming up then you make the trade. Keep a binder full of them. You will not be sorry.

3. City of Brass (7th Edition Foil)
From $68.63 to $50.96 (-25.75%)

City of Brass is a staple of Legacy Dredge and TES. It shows up in Commander decks and Cubes of all variety.

Unfortunately it has some new competition in the form of Mana Confluence.

Those other formats will use both but given how many printings City of Brass has I would invest in copies of Mana Confluence instead. Trade away any excess copies you are sitting on.

2. Anafenza, the Foremost (Khans of Tarkir)
From $7.98 to $5.85 (-26.69%)

She is efficient and will be a tremendous commander. She works well with Kitchen Finks or any other creatures that appreciate +1/+1 counters. She hates out graveyard strategies which are very popular in Commmander and casual games.

She has not found a home in any competitive decks and so she will continue to drop in price. It has too much competition in the three mana slot. She is competing with Brimaz, Abzan Charm, Courser of Kruphix and Hero’s Downfall.

She will drop to around the $3 range until a home opens up or someone decides to build around her.

1. Surrak Dragonclaw (Khans of Tarkir)
From $12.21 to $7.92 (-35.14%)

Five mana? Any five mana card that is being played in standard right now has haste or is Planeswalker. We just cannot wait a full turn to see any action.

His flash is a nice work around but we need more pieces to make Temur work. Jeskai, Mardu and Abzan all have shells to build off of. Sultai and Temur have not had the same cohesion yet.

I think that is only a matter of time. He will continue to decline until someone does find a way to break him. Maybe a Temur Yisan build?

I could see grabbing copies once they are $3 to $4 copies. His effect will always be popular with casual players who hate having their fatties countered. He also works very well alongside Animar in Commander.

I would keep my eye out on foil copies in another few months when the prices will be the lowest.

Casual Fridays

Hitting and Missing Targets

2 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

A little more than a year ago, I gave you a list of things to pick up and it’s time to check in and see how I did.

Magic 2013

Checklands (Sunpetal Grove, etc.)
Prediction: $5
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. I thought that with a year of new players looking for them, the price would go up. Supply is huge, though, after four printings and they have hardly budged in the past year.

Thundermaw Hellkite
Prediction: $12
Actual: $11

Verdict: Hit! It’s a big, fast, cheap Dragon who clears the way. It’s great in any format, and your eyes still go wide when it’s on the wrong side of the table.

Rhox Faithmender
Prediction: $3
Actual: $3

Verdict: Hit! Easy enough, as lifegain is one of the most fun effects to build a casual deck around. I’m looking to see Felidar Sovereign reprinted soon, maybe even in the coming Commander decks.

Sublime Archangel
Prediction: $10
Actual: $9

Verdict: Hit! Great in token decks, great in Angel decks. Gorgeous art, too, and that never hurts in the long run.

 

Omniscience
Prediction: $20
Actual: $9

Verdict: Miss. Despite the combo with Enter the Infinite and seeing play in Show and Tell decks, the price has stayed flat this entire year. I remain optimistic, but I don’t know when the bump will arrive.

Vampire Nocturnus
Prediction: $7
Actual: $5

Verdict: Miss. It’s crept up a little in price. Not enough for my purposes today, though.

Elderscale Wurm
Prediction: $3
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. It’s gone up to $3 this year, and the spread is getting close to null, meaning that buylist prices are almost the same as retail value. I might need to give it another few months, but today, it’s a miss.

Rancor
Prediction: $3
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. The price hasn’t budged, likely due to the multiple printings.

Thragtusk
Prediction: $6
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. Ugh. It’s actually gone down in price during the past year, indicating it’s not being used very much at all. Maybe it was just too oppressive in Standard and no one wants to relive that.

Reliquary Tower
Prediction: $1
Actual: $2.50

Verdict: Hit! And then some! These never made it as low as I’d hoped, but if you got them at under $1, they have doubled up in value. If you have any, I’d trade them soon, though, because these are easy to reprint.

Innistrad

Mikaeus, the Lunarch
Prediction: $3
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. Another card who was above my target earlier this year, he’s come back down to earth.

Garruk Relentless
Prediction: $10
Actual: $4

Verdict: Mega-Miss. He hasn’t been adopted in Modern, but this is a card that at least will be tough to reprint due to being double-sided, because it’s difficult to mix two-sided cards into a print run.

Enemy Checklands (Clifftop Retreat, Sulfur Falls, etc.)
Prediction: $8
Actual: $4-$7

Verdict: Miss. They have ticked upward, but not as much as I’d hoped. They aren’t seeing much Modern play, something I overestimated.

Geist of Saint Traft
Prediction: $25
Actual: $15

Verdict: Miss. While his price did hit $30 earlier this year, it’s trickled back downward in the months since. Having this as the WMCQ promo didn’t help at all.

Gavony Township
Prediction: $2
Actual: $2

Verdict: Hit! I was close on Kessig Wolf Run, but the Township was dead on.

Dark Ascension

Increasing Devotion
Prediction: $2
Actual: $0.50

Verdict: Miss. The price has stayed flat. There are just so many good token makers to choose from!

 

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Prediction: $8
Actual: $4.50

Verdict: Miss. But to be fair, when she hit $9 around Easter, I got rid of all of mine. Hope you did too!

Geralf’s Messenger
Prediction: $5
Actual: $3

Verdict: Miss. Awesome Zombie or not, he just isn’t seeing play.

Gravecrawler
Prediction: $6
Actual: $5.15

Verdict: Hit! Or close enough. he was a cheap pickup at rotation and has paid off nicely. Remember, I’m not looking for huge gains in one card, I’m always trying to increase the overall value of what’s in my binder.

Mikaeus, the Unhallowed
Prediction: $7
Actual: $9

Verdict: Hit! He’s actually the most valuable card in Dark Ascension. I don’t think he’ll be in the Commander decks this winter, since we’re already getting Gisa herself. There’s a chance this breaks $12-$15 by Christmas.

Drogskol Reaver
Prediction: $1.50
Actual: $1.75

Verdict: Hit! It costs seven, but it’s so darn amazing! It’s nice that I was so close on the value here.

Huntmaster of the Fells
Prediction: $10
Actual: $4.50

Verdict: Miss. I thought he’d see more Modern play, but just getting value isn’t good enough in that format.

Vault of the Archangel
Prediction: $4
Actual: $1

Verdict: Miss. I was wildly optimistic here. The price has stayed flat, so my many copies are just lounging around.

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
Prediction: $20
Actual: $7

Verdict: Miss. The duel deck reprint hurt. I think he might be around $15 if it wasn’t for the extra printing.

Avacyn Restored

Avacyn, Angel of Hope
Prediction: $25-$30
Actual: $30

Verdict: Hit! And for all the reasons I laid out. I’m warning you now, though, I’m pretty sure she will be in the white Commander deck this winter, at which point her price will take a hit.

Cathars’ Crusade
Prediction: $2
Actual: $1.50

Verdict: Hit! It’s almost buylisting for my prediction of $1 now. Wait a little longer, and you’re there.

Entreat the Angels
Prediction: $10
Actual: $9

Verdict: Hit! It’s not blowing up Legacy (though $50 for the foil is a result of the Miracles deck) but it’s powerful and flavorful.

Terminus
Prediction: $7
Actual: $3.50

Verdict: Miss. But to be fair, it just got reprinted in FTV: Annihilation, which has kept the price down.

Deadeye Navigator
Prediction: $1
Actual: $.75

Verdict: Hit! I’m calling it a hit because he’s been at $1.50 as recently as three weeks ago. There’s a lot of EDH players who want this card banned because of the combo shenanigans it enables, so watch out for that.

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
Prediction: $20
Actual: $15

Verdict: Miss. The philosophy of picking up planeswalkers while they are cheap is sound, but Tamiyo just hasn’t grown enough in price…yet.

Temporal Mastery
Prediction: $5
Actual: $6.50

Verdict: Hit! Yup, extra turns is good, no matter how much mana it is to cast. It’s important that you just get the extra turn, without any extra hoops, such as Savor the Moment.

Zealous Conscripts
Prediction: $3
Actual: $0.50

Verdict: Miss. Still an awesome card, but not even seeing play with Kiki-Jiki.

 

Craterhoof Behemoth
Prediction: $5
Actual: $10

Verdict: Hit! I didn’t think he was good enough for Legacy Elves, but the results don’t lie. Cast, bang, dead. Awesome in any format where eight mana is an option. (Watch out for some Modern decks with this too.)

Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Prediction: $10
Actual: $12

Verdict: Hit! This is why I’m so confident in Aurelia, the Warleader getting big over time as well. It’s worth mentioning that she was at $20 for a while this year.

Sigarda, Host of Herons
Prediction: $6
Actual: $6

Verdict: Hit! Do I know my casual Angels or what?

Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Prediction: $5
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. I mostly do, it seems. She is only good to build around, not add to other decks, and that’s important to remember.

Alchemist’s Refuge
Prediction: $2
Actual: $0.50

Verdict: Miss. I love this land, I do, but it just hasn’t been in demand. We’ll see if Khans changes that, with all the new blue-green good cards.

Cavern of Souls
Prediction: $20
Actual: $18.50

Verdict: Hit! It’s been much higher recently and this is one of the cards that has really grown for me. It hit a low of about $10, and I traded for as many as I could at that price.

 

Slayers’ Stronghold
Prediction: $3
Actual: $0.50

Verdict: Miss. Wow, I really was wrong about the lands, aside from Cavern.

There you have it! I was right on 42% of these (16 out of 38) and that would be closer to even if I counted the ones who beat their prices earlier this year. Lots of cards spiked in April and have trickled down since.

Overall, it’s clear I was too optimistic on two types of cards: lands and Planeswalkers. I now know to not go too crazy on the lands, and to lower my expectations when it comes to the planeswalkers. This is something to think about, especially with Jace, Architect of Thought being at sub-$5 along with Vraska the Unseen. Instead of expecting them to double in a year, I might instead think they will grow to a more moderate $7.

I also note that reprints and promos were a factor for some of these. This is a risk we’re going to run with everything not on the Reserved List, you need to be prepared for reprints to affect the price of non-foils.

It’s also reassuring that only a couple of these went lower than the price I recommended them at. I didn’t lose my shirt to any of these. Yet, anyway.

Thanks for sticking with me for this past year. I hope you’re tracking some of your predictions too!

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY