MTGO and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Trading Market (Pt. 2)

October 1, 2014 Travis Allen 12 Comments

This week is part two of a two-part series on the failure of the MTGO marketplace. You can find part one here. The tl;dr from last week is that Magic cards behave like commodities, and thus are eligible for a unique type of online market.

Upon entering a convention hall hosting a Grand Prix you’ll notice vendors ringing the space. The vendors, of whom there are usually between five and eight, each have different numbers for their buy and sell prices. If our intrepid player – let’s say you – decides he wants to buy the cheapest Glittering Wish in the room he’s going to have to do some legwork. Finding the least expensive copy is going to require visiting every single booth, muscling through the mob, locating the card in the case, and checking the price tag. Then you’ll need to repeat that entire sequence about seven more times. Once you’ve checked all eight vendors and have identified the cheapest copy, it’s finally time to go make a purchase. Let’s hope that they haven’t sold out while you were checking each other price in the room!

Imagine instead that there are not eight vendors in the room, but 50,000. Welcome to the Magic Online classifieds.

The unwieldy system for buying and selling cards at a GP is as it is because there is no centralized method for buying and selling paper cards in a meatspace. There is no single booth in the room that you can walk up to that sells cards on behalf of every vendor present. You’re forced to manually check with each one. This problem only becomes wildly more intense when add in the fact that not only can you buy the card from a vendor, but there are a few thousand binders in the room that are more than willing to trade. Somewhere amongst those eight vendors and 2,000 players is the theoretical cheapest copy of Glittering Wish, but there is basically no chance you’re actually going to find it. At the same time, someone in that room will give you fifteen dollars cash for your Courser of Kruphix (market value $15.76), but good luck finding the guy. It’s far more likely that you’ll take the seven to ten bucks one of the vendors is offering.

Such a system is brutally inefficient. There is no convenient method for buyers and sellers to see all the options available to them. There is no central structure in place through which all information is available to all parties at once. This is one of the myriad of reasons that real life sucks.

The solution to such a burdensome and inefficient system is to create some sort of hub of activity through which all transactions flow. A system that is capable of gathering all of the values of every unique card, for both sale and purchase, that is also fully queryable would do dramatic things to the market. By necessity such a system would immediately wipe out all transactions in which one party was getting more than their fair share. Third party vendors would disappear, and cards would flow freely among the vast majority of agents in the room: the players.

Magic Online is capable of this. There is only one MTGO server every single person in the world logs into. Whether you’re a bored housewife in Spain, an unemployed roustabout in Ukraine, or a pissy adolescent in the Nebraska plains, if you want to play MTGO you’re all going to the same place. This affords a fantastic opportunity that is not available to paper players: a true commodity marketplace.

MTGO puts every single player in the same system. You all have access to the same tournaments and classifieds. The foundation is in place to provide an efficient, fast, and fair marketplace for the commodity market that is Magic cards. Instead, you’re forced to bumble around blindly in a room of tens of thousands of vendors because….well, I have no idea why.

Because MTGO has failed to provide an adequate market for their playerbase, it has resulted in less-than-ideal conditions. If you’re a player on MTGO and you want to buy a Courser, you hit the classifieds and search for Courser of Kruphix. A list appears of everyone who has the phrase “Courser of Kruphix” in their title. (Remember too that “Courser of Kruphix” is different than “Courser,” so you’d better hope you’re using the same terminology as everyone else in the room.) If you’re lucky they put their sale price for Courser in the title of the classified as well, but not all will. Any that don’t have the sale price in the title will require opening a trade. This will have to happen several times before you can begin to get a feel for what the ‘average’ price of a Courser is so that when you actually find a good price you’ll know it.

There are a variety of pitfalls in this model. For instance, what happens if someone is selling their Courser for 20% less than everyone else, but accidentally spelled it “Cuorser?” How about the individual selling more than three different uniquely named cards? How is he supposed to advertise all of those as being for sale? The classified title has a character limit of course, so you can really only advertise your hottest items. This means it’s tough for someone to expose good prices on more off-beat cards, and it’s tough for buyers because they’re forced to just start wading through random trade binders to find a good price for a card. Sellers can’t adequately advertise their stock or even let people know what they’re selling, and buyers have trouble finding people who are selling what they want. Imagine going to a mall but instead of each store having large glass windows displaying their product they were all painted black.

What MTGO has done is effectively turn every player into a vendor in the same room. It’s hard to imagine a worse way to go about things. This frustratingly cumbersome system results in the creation of an automated process; the bot network. Anyone that plays with any regularity on MTGO is very familiar with bots. They’re awake twenty-four hours a day, have huge inventories, and are (mostly) easy to deal with. They exists to fill the massive exchange gap that MTGO continues to let exist. Imagine for a moment that MTGO banned bots. If you wanted to sell your Courser for tickets, the only way to do so would be to find another individual online at exactly that time that is willing to pay the price you’re asking. This doesn’t sound too bad for a hot staple like Courser, which will move quickly, but what if you’re trying to sell something like a foil Tangle Wire? What do you think the odds are that both someone selling and someone buying are online at the same time, that the seller is currently advertising that card in the classifieds, and that they can both agree on a price? This is exactly why bots exist.

Bots fill a gap, and whenever a service does so, the guy running the service is making a profit on every exchange. It’s the same way your LGS makes money buying and selling cards. Give players a little bit less for their cards than another average player would, and sell them for slightly more than the average player would. The reason anyone uses the service at all is not because they love getting ripped off, but because they’re paying for the convenience of having another market actor who will engage in 99% of transactions at nearly any time. Connecting buyer to seller is a profitable market to be in.

MTGO isn’t like real life, though. Computers aren’t hampered by the need to sleep or eat or otherwise be away from a market. They also can connect thousands and thousands in one central room with quick, easy transactions in a way that no real life environment could imitate. Why, when the system is already in place to provide the best possible market to the average player, does MTGO not capitalize on it?

The problem is compounded by the fact that tickets can’t be split. I’m sure Wizards has their own arcane reason for this, but the result is disastrous for players. By refusing to allow tickets to be split out to a hundredth of a decimal place, MTGO is essentially saying that no card can theoretically be worth less than one ticket. After all, if one ticket is the bare minimum official currency, how does one buy something that costs less than that?

Most commons, uncommons, and even rares for that matter, are worth less than one ticket on the MTGO market. Good luck trying to trade these easily between players though. Let’s say you want to acquire two copies of Restore Balance but without going through a bot. We have all the issues from before of actually finding someone who has two copies of this, but then how do you trade? You don’t want to pay a full ticket for what is worth maybe half a ticket at absolute best. This means you’ve either got to buy cards you don’t want, or the other agent has to take roughly half a tickets worth of value from you. Meanwhile all of this takes time and effort, and why is the guy with the Restore Balances going through all of this in the first place? It certainly isn’t worth his time for the what, tenth of a ticket worth of value he may get out of the transaction?

Bot networks are further supported by MTGO’s refusal to allow tickets to be split. They provide virtual ticket splitting by offering credit to players. Head over to your nearest preferred bot, trade him your cards, and you get credit out to multiple decimal places that can then be used anywhere on that bot network. This of course incentivizes players to keep returning to the same bot network over and over, lest they end up with ten tickets worth of credit spread out among ten different vendors. It’s the “forty-eight cents left on this gift card” syndrome all over again. The nature of the integer ticket is ultimately great for bots and terrible for the average player.

Let’s review. MTGO has the foundation in place to provide an excellent market experience that would be literally impossible to replicate in the real world. A commodity network on MTGO would overall reduce the prices players pay for their cards, overall increase how much they sell their cards for, and overnight get rid of bot networks. For 99.99% of people in the system it’s a complete upgrade. So what needs to change to get us there, and what does “there” look like?

First of all the ticket system has to be fixed. Without the ability for players to reduce tickets to the second decimal place, essentially setting the minimum price on a card to a single cent, then none of this will work. When a huge chunk of the market is worth less than the smallest division of your currency, all sorts of weird problems will pop up. (Like bot networks offering credit that relies entirely on the buyer placing unfounded trust in an unaccountable stranger.)

The next step is basically to completely get rid of the classifieds as you know them. Gone. They will instead be replaced by a central commodity market that essentially functions as a miniature auction for every single type of good. These types of virtual markets already exist all over the place. We’ll take a look at a pretty big one that’s arguably the most successful: the Steam market.

Welcome to the Steam Community Market. On arrival we see what I currently have for sale, when I listed it, and how much I’m asking for it. Below that are a list of the most popular items today. For right now we want to buy Jarate, an item used by the sniper in Team Fortress 2. For the rest of this demonstration, just imagine replacing the word “Jarate” with “Wrath of God” and the process is exactly how MTGO could work.

I’m going to plug in Jarate in the search field over there on the right, and this is what I see after:

Here’s a list of everything with Jarate in the name. You’ll see there are various types of Jarate – Vintage, Strange, Festive, Collector’s, etc. Imagine these as being “10th Edition, 9th Edition, 7th Edition Foil, FTV:Armageddon, etc.” Let’s take a look at the festive Jarate.

I get to see a big image of what I’m purchasing, along with a description that would probably be oracle text if this was an actual Magic card. Below I have a graph of the history of sales data for this product, with samples across multiple timespans, and below that all the Festive Jarates for sale. Because Festive Jarate is a commodity – every instance of it is basically the exact same as all the others – the listings automatically sort by the only defining characteristic: the price. I see how much it is, who’s selling it, and most importantly, for how much. Let’s buy one.

Clicking “Buy Now” gives me a confirmation box, showing again exactly what I’m getting, how much I’m paying for it, and how my money is being spent. Notice Steam even gets to take a little off the top for providing the transaction. That’s a nice incentive for Wizards that doesn’t exist in the current MTGO classifieds system.

How about if I want to sell something on the market? If I’m browsing my backpack (or MTGO collection) and discover I have something I don’t need, selling it is eazy peazy.

Simply clicking on the item shows me the cheapest price for the product on the market as well as how many copies have sold in the last twenty-four hours.

Clicking the “Sell” button shows another price graph, and allows me to price the product in one of two ways: how much the buyer will pay, or how much I want to actually pocket after its sale.

These two examples show just how easy buying and selling in the MTGO marketplace could be. Need a Rattleclaw Mystic? Hop on the market, search it up, and find the cheapest four copies on MTGO immediately. Browsing through your binder and realize you’ve only got three Polukranos? Click on the existing card in your inventory and buy the card right from your binder. Find an extra copy of Mantis Rider you don’t need as you’re putting together a list? Put it up for sale right from your binder. You don’t even have to leave the page! A simple pop-up window will handle the ease of listing the card.

The ease of buying and selling isn’t the only logistical advantage for the player. A model of this sort would allow the creation of buy and sell orders. Suppose there’s a card you want to spec on – maybe Spellweaver Volute or something wacky. You can create what’s known as a buy order. Tell the system exactly what card you want, how much you want to pay for it, and how many copies you want. Every time a Spellweaver Volute is listed at or below your designated price, your account automatically buys the card until the quota is filled. How amazing would it be to set prices for all these cards you need at low prices and then a week later have them?

If buy orders aren’t cool enough, how about MTGO telling you in real time how much it would cost to buy the cards you don’t currently own from a given decklist? Log into the mothership with your MTGO account info, and the next time Gavin posts a sweet brew there will be a dollar vlaue right there telling you how much it would cost to buy the cards missing from your account. “This is an awesome Junk reanimator list, and it would only be about seventy bucks to finish it. I’m going to go build it.”

A feature-rich commodity market such as what I’ve discussed and shown you here would have some large consequences. Bots would disappear overnight, which would admittedly suck for the guys over at MTGOTraders and such. That’s an acceptable loss if it means better prices for players across the board. Cards would find their equilibriums faster. Spreads would shrink to the smallest they’ve ever been. Gone would be the days of spikes causing cards to be difficult to find for less-than-insane prices. Players would more easily be able to switch between decks, because the cost of selling out of one list and buying into another would be so low. The metagame would become truly fluid, as players could easily and affordably build the best deck for each tournament, not just the best deck in their card pool. It would be a revitalization of the entire MTGO ecosystem.

MTGO has no shortage of problems, as many of my peers have written about. Twitter is fully of daily lamentations from fish and pros alike. Screenshots of ridiculous bugs circulate regularly. At least once a month someone writes an article about some other part of MTGO that is awful, such as the compensation policy or terrible payouts. While all of these are valid and frustrating complaints, few reveal a fundamental flaw in Wizard’s appreciation for their content like this issue does. Wizards refusing to deliver a common-sense commodity market to the players is indicative of an underlying failure to truly comprehend their product. How could a system that was outdated the day it was released still be in place today when the inevitable results would have been so clear even at the time of its conception? MTGO has no shortage of software flaws and misguided policies, but this is a disservice to the Magic community unlike any other in recent memory.

Nearly all of MTGO’s other problems can be fixed with software updates and policy changes. The solution to this problem, though, is what we all deserve and Wizards refuses to give us: A brand new Magic Online experience.

The Gilded Goblin

Commons and Uncommons of Khans

September 29, 2014 Jared Yost 14 Comments

By: Jared Yost

If you haven’t had a chance to check out Travis’ full set review for mythic rares and rares of Kahns of Tarkir, go check that out right now. Travis did an excellent job covering the potential financial future of mythics and rares from Khans. There is a ton of information in his article to digest that will be useful for the Standard rotation and beyond.

Since covering just the mythics and rares was such a massive undertaking, Travis tasked me with covering the remaining uncommons and commons in the set that seem powerful enough to see Standard, Modern, Legacy, and even Cube or Vintage play. I’ll stick to Travis’ original article format for this and list out the uncommons and commons I like in the following order:

White
Blue
Black
Red
Green
Multicolored
Artifact
Land

I will not list the uncommons/commons that are bulk, since most uncommons/commons will be bulk and only a select few will wind up seeing tournament play. Also keep in mind that it is really hard for an uncommon to break a $2. Banishing Light is around $2.50 retail due to its ubiquitous utility as a fixed Oblivion Ring that can answer any nonland threat for three mana. In other words, unless the uncommon is as insane as Banishing Light then it will be hard for it to break $2 so don’t pick up tons of uncommons expecting them to spike in price. If an uncommon is really good also expect it to be in an event deck or other supplementary product, furthering the chance none of us will profit from it financially.

I think the best mind set to be in while reviewing uncommons and commons from a financial perspective is to think about the best way to pick them up cheaper than retail, which usually is to set them aside when you crack them or draft them so that you don’t later have to buy these cards at retail prices when you need them for a deck. Foils are nice pick ups for eternal playable uncommons and commons if they are powerful to be included in Modern, Legacy, or even Vintage decks. Many times I will prefer to pick up foil copies as they will retain more value in the long term.

Alright, let’s dive into the uncommons and commons of Khans of Tarkir.

White

Seeker of the Way

Seeker of the Way is one of the strongest white bears (two mana 2/2’s) at uncommon or common that we’ve seen in a while. I think this card is better than Ajani’s Sunstriker and Ajani’s Pridemate in the right decks since it doesn’t cost WW to cast or require life gain in order to get bigger. It is definitely better than cards like Boros Mastiff or Sunspear Shikari because you also don’t have to fulfill harder requirements to get a bonus – all you have to do is cast noncreature spells for him to become a 3/3 (or potentially bigger) lifelinker. I think Seeker could see a decent amount of Standard play in a B/W lifelink shell alongside Sorin, Solemn Visitor.

Suspension Field

Suspension Field would have been amazing if not for Banishing Light. I’ll give you that the difference between two and three mana is pretty significant, especially in aggro decks, but I don’t see this card being played much in the main deck. This feels like something you bring out of the board against midrange decks without a good way of getting rid of enchantments. After all, it is a worse Journey to Nowhere.

Suspension Field is decent yet don’t go deep on this one since it has to compete with Banishing Light for slots.

Watcher of the Roost

I like Watcher of the Roost because you can play it without having white mana available and it can also confuse your opponents game one by making them think you have another more powerful morph card in play. I’m not sure how much play this will see though I think it provides good value for three mana. Pick up some copies if you plan on playing white.

Blue

Disdainful Stroke

I like Disdainful Stroke because it is powerful against midrange and control decks. I think tempo decks and aggro decks will play at a few copies, at the least in their sideboards. Focus on foils here, as it could potentially see eternal play in Modern since the casting cost is efficient for a hard counterspell (that is, a counterspell that doesn’t also say “unless it’s controller pays {x mana}”).

Jeskai Elder

I like Jeskai Elder for cubes but I’m not sure if she is powerful enough to see play in Standard or other formats. If you like her for cube pick up a foil copy for less than $1.

Quiet Contemplation

I like that this enchantment provides value to control decks, as it turns all their noncreature spells into pseudo-removal for a turn while they wait to set up their end game. It works well with instants, tapping down creatures at instant speed at the beginning of an opponent’s attack phase.

This reminds me of Lightning Rift, which had its own deck based around it back in Onslaught Standard. Though QC is no Lightning Rift, since you can’t deal damage to players nor activate QC when your opponent plays a noncreature spell. Pick up some copies for decks yet don’t go out of your way to get these as we don’t quite know how powerful (or weak) the Jeskai Prowess / noncreature theme are.

Stubborn Denial

Foils of this card are already $20 retail which is huge for an uncommon. You know what other spell is around $20 foil retail? Empty the Pits. I think it is pretty crazy that a foil uncommon is worth just as much as a foil mythic rare.

The foil price is derived from the expected eternal play that players are predicting Stubborn Denial will see in Modern, Legacy, and Vintage. However, I feel that Spell Pierce seems so much better than this card for a large majority of eternal decks. Many times, I feel like SD is just a bad Force Spike in eternal formats because at least with Spell Pierce you don’t need a creature to improve your counterspell.

However, I have not had a chance to see Stubborn Denial in action so it could be really good in combination with Tarmogoyf or other cheap creatures that can reach four power or greater quickly in Vintage, Legacy, or Modern. In Vintage, I’m thinking this could be a great protection spell once you get out your win condition.

In the end, only time will tell. Avoid foil copies for now and wait for the results to come. I think the foil price right now is mainly driven by hype. Only pick up foils if Stubborn Denial starts seeing heavy play in one or more of the eternal formats and the foil price doesn’t budge.

Treasure Cruise

I believe that this common is the most exciting card from Khans for eternal formats. The foil price certainly reflects this since it is commanding anywhere from $15 to $50 per copy! In eternal formats, the Delve mechanic has been around since it was introduced in Future Sight and Tombstalker started seeing Legacy play.

However, Treasure Cruise is not Tombstalker. Tombstalker was never played in playsets, maybe as a two-of or three-of, and was eventually outclassed by other strategies. In many ways Treasure Cruise is better than Tombstalker. Treasure Cruise is most likely to be seen in playsets in the decks it is featured in and I have a hard time seeing how draw three cards in blue, with only one blue mana as the color commitment, being outclassed.

If you are familiar with Standstill strategies in Legacy then you know that being able to draw three cards for two mana is pretty awesome. People have made Standstill work for years, because even though it is really clunky getting that card advantage is so awesome in a format like Legacy. Treasure Cruise does not require the awkward situation that Standstill introduces, and could definitely be cast for U and become Ancestral Recall at sorcery speed. So don’t think of this card as Tombstalker, instead think of it as a better Standstill. Even playing it for three mana and exiling five cards is quite a deal.

Also, we can’t forget that it passes the Force of Will test (it is blue, and therefore can be pitched to FoW, and therefore can be played in the blue decks that utilize Force) and only requires a single blue mana color commitment. I think we’re going to be seeing many Treasure Cruises being cast in Legacy, and maybe even Modern or possibly Vintage, in the future.

For more fun things you can do with Treasure Cruise see this Star City Games article by Carsten Kotter.

What is the correct foil price for Treasure Cruise? Honestly, I’m not sure yet. I think we’re going to need to revisit this back in two to three months in order to let the dust settle. For now, I wouldn’t pay more than $5 in cash for this or $10 in trade based on Delver of Secrets foil history.

Black

Dead Drop

This is a really expensive card but again Delve makes me look at it again since being able to cast this for four or less is pretty awesome. I would pick up a few copies for decks if you plan on playing control (the best deck type to include this card since you would have to delve a ton of cards to get the mana cost down to an efficient range) or for a cube if you like it. $1.50 is pretty cheap for foils.

Murderous Cut

This is probably the best non-blue Delve card in the set. It is really easy to get four cards into your graveyard, even in Standard since we have the fetchlands now, and it can take out any creature without a drawback at instant speed. I think this is solid removal that will be played alongside of Hero’s Downfall in black Standard decks. Like other Delve cards it also has playability in eternal formats since it is even easier to get four cards into your graveyard in Modern and Legacy.

Pick up extra copies in trades since I think this will be played across several formats. Foils are also nice targets even at $10.

Sultai Scavenger

Many people are equating this guy with Delver of Secrets for eternal formats though I don’t he quite gets there. Since this guy is black he doesn’t pass the Force of Will test and needs to be given extra consideration before being included in Legacy lists because I think flipping Delver is much easier than getting five cards in the ‘yard for Sultai Scavenger. Foils are less than $1 right now so it could be a good pickup if you plan on playing them in Legacy or think it will see play in Modern.

Red

Goblinslide

Similar to Quiet Contemplation, this card rewards control players for having a large amount of non-creature spells and gives them more reach in the late game when they have extra mana and can create goblin tokens off every spell.

This could also see play in midrange or aggro decks too, since hasty goblins improve Goblin Rabblemaster attacks. Foils are pretty good for less than $1.

Horde Ambusher

Similar to Watcher of the Roost, I like that this card morphs for free and provides a nice bonus upon morphing. Similar to Seeker of the Way, this red bear is quite strong and pushing the curve for what you can get for two mana in a red creature. Make sure to hold on to these because they will be played in Standard when Theros rotates if not before.

Hordeling Outburst

I get the feeling that casuals are going to love this card. It is a nice addition to cubes on top of being Standard playable in the right deck. Stay away from foils for now since they are quite high at $3.50. Being uncommon will mean that nonfoils of this card will always be around at least $0.25 retail.

Monastery Swiftspear

She provides a ton of value to Burn decks, especially eternal ones. Swiftspear will be a nice upgrade to red one drops in many players’ cubes. Foils are a bit high right now at $7.50, so if you want foil copies wait.

Tormenting Voice

A strict upgrade to Wild Guess, I like this card for eternal formats in combo decks. It is much easier to cast than Wild Guess and so getting it to work in combo decks is easier than a RR casting cost. Foils will be nice targets once the release hype dies down.

War-Name Aspirant

I like this card for Standard. I think she will appear in red aggro decks since the Raid is really easy to get and her ability is nice. Don’t focus on foils, instead set aside copies you get in sealed pools and drafts in for future decks or trades.

Green

Become Immense

I like this card in Infect decks, especially Modern Infect builds. I don’t think it will be played as more than a one-of or two-of in the Infect decks but it can’t hurt to stash these way. It will make more of an impact in Modern than Legacy since pump options are more limited in Modern, though Legacy play is a real possibility for the card since +6/+6 is quite a bonus.

Savage Punch

I only mention this card for the art and flavor. If Gift of Orzhova can maintain a $5 foil price on art alone I’m thinking this card just might do that too. Foils are currently $1 – quick, buy them all out!

Multicolored

Overall Charm Cycle Thoughts

The charms probably won’t be played in playsets however picking up foil copies of them will be great for long term gains. Cubes and Commander decks alike will be utilizing these charms. Don’t focus on nonfoils here as they could easily be reprinted in supplementary products and lose value, plus this is going to be a heavily opened set due to fetchlands.

Each charm has its pros and cons but generally there are “better” charms than others. It is hard to determine yet which charm is going to come out on top, so I think the strategy for now is to focus on foils and wait for results to come in if you decide you want to pick up popular charms for trade value.

Icefeather Aven

I really like foils of this guy for cubes since he is a strict upgrade to Gaea’s Skyfolk. He could also see Standard play because I hear Man-o’-War effects are good.

Warden of the Eye

Not exactly a strict upgrade to Izzet Chronarch since this guy introduces white mana into the casting cost but he will definitely be played in Jeskai Commander decks. Foils will be good targets once the release hype dies down. $1 for foils of this card seems good to me.

Being a 3/3 helps too, which could help the card see Standard play though the jury is out for now on Standard. Don’t buy these guys at retail price yet keep any copies you find lying around.

Artifacts

Uncommon and common artifacts in this set are pretty underwhelming from a financial perspective. I’m not interested in them, though let me know if you think any are worthy of consideration in the comments.

Lands

Wedge Tri Lands

Out of all the uncommons and commons of this set I believe the wedge tri lands are going to be the best pickups from a financial perspective. Wedge lands were already hard to come by before we got these, and now that we have them players are going to want playsets for their clan themed decks. Even though there are going to be a ton of them out there, in the future they will go up in value due to casual and Commander demand. I’m basing this on the Shards tri lands history. Shards tri lands are all currently about $1-$1.50 retail even after being reprinted in Commander decks.

Foils will also be nice of these lands however $5 seems a bit high for now. Wait two to three months and if the price hasn’t budged on foils then get them at $5, otherwise get them once they dip if that’s what the market decides.

Khans Refuges (Nickname based on the Zendikar Refuge cycle of five lands)

Hold onto any copies of these you get, both foil and nonfoil. I think nonfoils will always be more than bulk on buylists. Foils will be wanted for cubes and Commander decks, and if you can snag foils for $0.50 or less go for it.

Summary

Here are the top five uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable) in list format so that you know which uncommons and commons I think will hold the most financial value in Khans moving forward.

HONORABLE MENTION: Become Immense

Wedge Tri Lands
FOIL Treasure Cruise (pick up nonfoils at bulk)
FOIL Charms
Murderous Cut
Monastery Swiftspear

I think there are many playable uncommons and commons in Khans across Standard, Modern, Legacy, Commander, and Cube. Foils of uncommons and commons will hold more value long term than nonfoils, since any popular ones are bound to be reprinted in supplementary products.

Again, let me reiterate that I am not recommending that players buy thousands of these uncommons or commons en masse trying to make a profit by expecting them to spike. Uncommons and commons are notoriously slow to increase in price, if at all. It takes something like Delver of Secrets level of play to make that happen – and non-foils of that card are barely $0.25 retail with only one printing and all the play that card sees. What I hope this article does show is that the hype around new sets also affects uncommons and commons, sometimes to a huge degree. Once the hype dies down prices will be much more reasonable.

I also hope this article will enable players to identify the more powerful uncommons and commons in the set so that they can pick them up for decks if they want to play them and that it helps players building cubes to identify which foil uncommons and commons are best to pick up and when.

Weekend Update

Weekend Update for 9/27/14

September 27, 2014 Jim Marsh 6 Comments

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Battlefield Forge (10^th Edition)
From $5.13 to $5.56 (8.38%)

M15 drafting has officially come to an end. More packs will be opened of course but it will be a trickle compared to the past few months. Why open a core set when there are wedges and fetchlands to release into the wild?

Battlefield Forge will be used in decks that want consistent mana early on and do not intend the game to continue for long.

Mardu will want to use it in aggressive decks.

Jeskai will want it for the combo deck featuring Jeskai Ascendency that everyone is trying to make happen. I am kicking myself for not picking up a few play sets at $2 each but such is the life of a Magic financier.

Modern Boros Burn and Jeskai Twin decks have also used a couple copies to supplement their mana base so demand will never go to absolute zero.

This will keep the lands in demand but with so many printings it can only get to about $7 or so. This means you can hold onto copies you already own and wait for the price to creep up but there is not enough room to really advise trading for Forges.

9. Temple of Malice (Born of the Gods)
From $5.22 to $5.66 (8.43%)

Slower decks in Standard will want to forego the pain and can make use of the scry lands. Temple of Malice is better served for Mardu midrange or Grixis control strategies.

I have even seen some deck brewers tinker with Temple of Malice in Jund aggro and Burn strategies.

Temple of Malice comes from the much maligned Born of the Gods so there are very few of them compared to the Theros temples. This does not convince me that Malice is going to go much higher than $7.

I still feel the smart money would be going for the Journey into Nyx temples.

Temple of Epiphany would be for Jeskai Midrange or Control. Temple of Malady is perfect for a grindy Abzan deck.

8. Purphoros, God of the Forge (Theros)
From $6.31 to $6.90 (8.43%)

Purphoros is primed to make an impact in Standard. We now have Raise the Alarm, Triplicate Spirits, Hordeling Outburst and the potentially terrifying Empty the Pits. He also pairs up brutally well with Bloodsoaked Champion.

He already seems some play in variations on Boros Burn, Gruul Chord and Red Devotion decks.

Modern has seen him shoe horned into Soul Sisters and abusing Norin the Wary. Some Birthing Pod lists include him in the seventy five.

He is not only a legendary creature but a god and that is going to go a long way towards making him a staple of kitchen tables for a long time to come. I really do not see any downside to hoarding some copies and potentially some good upside.

7. Mikokoro, Center of the Sea (Saviors of Kamigawa)
From $10.69 to $11.74 (9.82%)

Mikokoro is a legendary land that is used sparsely. It is sometimes seen in Modern Hatebear, TurboFog and Enduring Ideal decks.

It is best utilized in decks that create situations where the extra cards cannot be used effectively.

It allows you to pile on the card advantage when paired with Spirit of the Labyrinth and activated on your opponent’s turn after their draw step.

It is yet another group hug card for every Nekusar, the Mindrazer deck.

The decks that run copies only need one or two copies. They are fairly fringe decks with the exception of HateBears but it has not really been making waves lately. This is going to continue to grow slowly but steadily but I do not see a reason to rush on getting copies.

6. Kiora, the Crashing Wave (Born of the Gods)
From $17.97 to $19.91 (10.80%)

Kiora wants to help midrange and control decks accelerate or buy enough turns to establish the battlefield.

It can be used in a wide variety of decks. Temur Chord and Monsters decks are the most likely. Sultai Mindrange and Control decks could used her in generating additional card advantage. It will require a skilled pilot but will be a powerful strategy.

Kiora has even seen very limited eternal play. Restore Balance in Modern and Punshing Sultai in Legacy have both played with it.

Foils have recently jumped from $36.36 to $47.79 over the past few weeks.

She does not have the power level of Xenagos, the Reveler so I do not see why she has the same price tag. Her supply is significantly lower but the decks that do want her are content with only one or two copies.

I would trade her away into the hype.

5. Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver (Theros)
From $9.82 to $11.00 (12.02%)

Ashiok had been a $7 card in the not too distant past. It can be a powerful finisher in decks that are grinding out victory with card advantage.

Ashiok will be used in Sultai and Grixis versions of Midrange and Control decks.

Its second ability will be well served by efficient wedge creatures whose power is much more efficient due to strenuous mana costs. Ashiok just sees a free Mantis Rider for three loyalty counters.

Ashiok has been a $20 card before. I think a few tournament results and some price memory will be able to push it back into that range.

I would trade for them given the opportunity. This is especially true if people still think of it as a $7 to $8 card.

4. Soldier of the Pantheon (Theros)
From $3.05 to $3.49 (14.43%)

Soldier of the Pantheon will be playing dual roles for the coming year.

As a 2/1 for one mana with quasi-evasion it is as aggressive a threat as you can possibly ask. The same protection combined with the life gain clause will allow midrange decks to hold off much larger threats once it becomes outclassed.

How many one mana creatures can endlessly hold back Savage Knuckleblade or Surrak Dragonclaw?

The focus on wedges will give Soldier of the Pantheon another chance to shine. This will help it get past $4 soon.

Soldier of the Pantheon was a rare in a heavily drafted large set and was included in an Event Deck. This will probably keep it from hitting $5.

Time your outs and trade them high. Hopefully you picked them up as toss ins when they were below $2.

3. Flames of the Blood Hand (Betrayers of Kamigawa)
From $5.08 to $5.97 (17.52%)

Can you believe these were under $2 only two months ago?

Eidolon of the Great Revel really put burn on the map.

Shocklands and fetchlands are as cheap as they re ever going to be. This has allowed more players to transition from Standard to Modern. New players in a format tend to gravitate towards budget decks and known archetypes while they get used to everything.

Burn decks are both. They are also a gateway deck from Modern into Legacy. Both versions of the deck rely on a lot of the same staples.

This has been pushing up the value of cards for the deck. You can still grab Fire and Lighting copies for the same price. Modern and Legacy players love foils so I would get those instead.

I would also keep my eyes open for foil copies of Skullcrack. It is only $5 and plays a similar role to Flames at one mana cheaper. Prices are down due to Standard players offloading them for rotation.

2. The Rack (Antiquities)
From $5.51 to $9.51 (72.60%)

Players have been trying to make The Rack work in Modern for a while. Liliana’s Caress was more efficient than Megrim but The Rack is often a Lava Spike with rebound that you only have to pay for once.

Return to Ravnica gave us Shrieking Affliction. Foils of it can still be found for $2 and you should jump on those.

Waste Not from M15 may have finally given us the critical mass of cheap effects that bump discard from a rogue deck to fringe play.

Who does not want free zombies, cards and mana for playing Raven’s Crime over and over?

The rack was $4 only a month ago.

The only foil version of the card is from Time Spiral. I see it on eBay for $8 and I see vendors offering $10 for it. There is something there. Grab these. You will be glad you did.

I would also play both sides and grab some cheap Obstinate Baloths.

1. Sorin, Solemn Visitor (Khans of Tarkir)
From $11.98 to $27.40 (128.71%)

We all know that pre-release prices are guaranteed to be inflated. This is especially the case with planeswalkers since retailers do not want to be sitting on the next Jace, the Mind Sculptor.

It is normal for Planeswalkers to pre-order high and to sink back down to reality as they are introduced to the rigors of actual play.

It is unusual for one to jump up like Sorin does. He can be a slower Talrand’s Invocation which is great in limited but not really that exciting in constructed play.

His +1 makes racing impossible and makes token decks happy. He provides a free Cruel Feeding for your entire team.

He is going to be seeing some experimentation in Mardu Tokens and Orzhov Midrange. He seems custom made to team up with Brimaz.

He is already $30 so how much higher do I think he can get? The answer is still the same as any other Planeswalker at release. Trade him away as soon as your draft is over.

There is a 90% chance you will thank me for that later.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $17.28 to $16.03 (-7.23%)

Courser is still a fantastic creature. He will be played in every single deck with access to green mana and he just makes fetchlands seem unfair.

He is going to be in Abzan Control, Sultai Midrange, Jund and Naya Monsters not no mention RG Chord and probably more.

He is even showing up in Modern Jund, Birthing Pod and GB Rock decks.

The problem is that he is in the Clash Pack. Courser cannot maintain a $20 price tag when you can go online and order a Clash Pack for $22 that gives you a Courser along with a lot of other good cards like Nykthos and Prophet of Kruphix.

I doubt he will go down much further because he does provide incredible value but his ceiling does not provide much room to grow. He is a fatnastic place to store value and will be very liquid if you are looking for something to trade for.

4. Tidespout Tyrant (Dissension)
From $7.25 to $6.67 (-8.00%)

Tidespout Tyrant was one of the top targets in Legacy Reanimtor and Food Chain decks.

Unfortunately those decks only need a single copy each and neither have really been doing very well in the metagame.

It is still a bomb in Commander but with so little play and so much competition at the top from Griselbrand and Emrakul I think Tidespout has had its day. I would trade these away.

3. Birds of Paradise (8^th Edition)
From $5.45 to $4.84 (-11.19%)

Despite being one of the most printed rares in the history of Magic I still feel Birds are underpriced.

They are a staple in Modern Melira Pod and any green decks that want a variety of colors right off the bat. Its role has become diminished since the widespread adoption of Noble Hierarch but it is still one of the best one mana creatures ever printed.

It is a tremendous way to start enable Jeskai Ascendancy Storm to win on turn two.

It is a staple in Commander, Cubes and casual decks the world over.

Foils can command a premium. Did you know that the 7^th Edition Foil buylists for $85?

You can still buy some cheap regular copies as low as $3.51. I would stock up. I think M16 will feature Birds of Paradise and really help the wedges shine.

Even if that is not the case the day will come when it will be back in standard and prices will jump to $10 for a copy. In the mean time you can always move them to your casual friends.

2. Blood Moon (8^th Edition)
From $19.65 to $16.57 (-15.67%)

Blood Moon is a powerful sideboard card that punishes greedy manabases and shuts down powerful lands like Gavony Township and Tectonic Edge.

The printing of more fetchlands in Modern makes it slightly worse but it will still hold a place in powerful decks.

Modern uses it in Affinity, UR Delver, Twin, Red Deck Wins and Pyromancer decks.

Legacy uses it in Jeskai Miracles, Sneak and Show, Imperial Painter and it plays a crucial role in Goblin Stompy.

Copies from The Dark can be had on ebay for as little as $20. This is a steal considering some vendors are currently listing them for as much as $45.

1. Brainstorm (Friday Night Magic)
From $109.99 to $85.17 (-22.57%)

There used to be two ways to get foil Brainstorms and both had the same artwork.

Conspiracy came around and introduced a fresh new supply for a fraction of the cost of the older and scarcer copies.

Brainstom is still one of the best draw spells ever printed and is a frequent addition in decks that run blue.

Legacy uses it in OmniTell, Sultai Delver, UW Miracles, ANT and more.

The recent SCG Legacy Open in Atlanta on 9/14/2014 featured twenty four copies in the Top 8.

It is only a common but it is a staple that will be played until it is banned. Legacy players will need four copies and will want foils for their decks.

I think the Mercadian Masques foil will maintain much of its value for being an old frame foil of a set that was opened in such small numbers compared to the sets today.

FNM copies lost their luster as the Modern frame version. Conspiracy provides a ready and cheaper supply. I think it is instructive to see that earlier this year FNM foils were only $20. I do not think it is going back that low but you should get out before we find out how low it will go.

Casual Fridays

My Long-Term Targets

September 26, 2014 Cliff Daigle 2 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

Disclaimer: I haven’t read Jared’s two–part piece on this, and I won’t until after this posts. I like my impressions to be my own.

It’s rotation time! I’ve written recently about the cards that I’ve picked up from Theros block, and now I’m going to share my list of things to trade for to fill my long-term binder. Most of these cards are popular in casual formats, and I’m looking to pick these up and sock them away for a year or two. If they aren’t reprinted (this is always a concern) then their value will slowly creep up over time.

The example of this is Tamiyo, the Moon Sage. When Avacyn Restored rotated out last year, she could be had for $8-$10 as she was traded away from control players. In the year since, she’s climbed to nearly $15, while seeing not much play in Modern. She’s very good in Commander and deserves consideration in Cube.

So my goal is to identify the cards that are cheap now, but have good room for growth in the next couple of years.

M14

Garruk, Caller of Beasts (Now $7, aiming for $10+)

This is the easiest call of all. M14 was under-opened due to Modern Masters, and Garruk hasn’t had a chance to shine in Standard. He’s got a shot in Modern, I’ve seen some ramp lists that use his minus ability to drop Progenitus onto the battlefield, but it’s in casual formats that he makes his hay. It’s a plus ability that will likely draw you 2-3 cards, and action cards at that!

Getting him at $7 is a steal. The growth won’t be fast, but it will grow. It’s unlikely that this will be reprinted in the coming Commander product, making it one of the safest bets on this list.

Scavenging Ooze (Now $5, aiming for $8+)

This was $40 at one point, when it was in a single edition of the 2011 Commander decks. It’s got a promo version hanging around, and it is one of the best ways to deal with graveyard shenanigans in casual formats. You can exile anything, but you only get bonuses if it was a creature. Every Commander deck needs a way to interact with graveyards, and this is one of the best.

Kalonian Hydra (Now $7, aiming for $10+)

This ticks two boxes on the ‘makes casual players giddy’ list: it’s a Hydra, which is a surprisingly expensive tribe to build. It is also a counter-doubling card, and it is amazing at that. Its price has been slowly ticking downwards, and it might get to $5 in the next few weeks, but I’d be comfortable getting in at $7 and then just being patient. Anyone building a new Abzan Commander deck is going to want one of these in the worst way.

Rise of the Dark Realms (Now $3, aiming for $7-10)

We aren’t lacking for ways to clear the board in casual formats. This is a very unique spell, requiring only nine mana, as opposed to Liliana Vess’s ultimate or the buildup of Grimoire of the Dead. Since you get everyone’s creatures, all it takes is one effect granting Haste and it’s over. This is one that I’m afraid of getting a reprint, since it’s so thematic with Liliana.

Dragon’s Maze

Progenitor Mimic (Now $2.50, aiming for $5)

The mythics from this set are what you really want to watch, as the maze runners were intro pack foils. Progenitor Mimic is the neatest of the bunch, offering tokens and copies together.

Gatecrash

Shocks at $8 or less (aiming for $12-$15+)

There is a huge supply of shocklands out there. If you needed them for Modern or Cube, you already got what you needed. I cannot overstate the supply of these cards, and there’s a good chance that lots of people have saved a few shocks for decks that are yet to be built.

With that in mind: We’re at a floor for these cards. They are not going to go up quickly. They are probably not going to be printed in Modern Masters 2 next summer. I don’t know when they will get printed again, but they will get a new print run eventually. The key is then to get them now, cash them out in a year or two, and move on.

Foils are a different matter, being in the $30-$40 range right now. I am aggressively trying to trade for these, as foil prices are never going to be this low again. Even if they are in a new Conspiracy set or the like, that won’t be for a long while and these foils will be at least $10-$20 more within a year.

Master Biomancer ($3, aiming for $6)

I think that it’s only a matter of time until this and Beck//Call blow Modern open into a combo deck. Until then, this is very low-risk to sit on.

Aurelia, the Warleader ($5, aiming for $8-10)

I’ve spoken of her before. Case in point: Gisela, Blade of Goldnight is $11 now. Aurelia will be there in a year or two.

Enter the Infinite ($1, aiming for $5)

This even sees some Legacy play in some OmniShow builds! Getting a stack of these at near-bulk is a fun bet, and at this price, even a modest increase can pay off big.

Be wary of trying to cash out a bump all at once: what Travis has referred to on Twitter as ‘pulling a Ghave’ in reference to his article.

Thespian’s Stage ($1, aiming for $3)

I don’t need to repeat myself again, do I? I’m keenly aware of the ease of reprinting this card, but the huge gap between regular and foil ($1 vs. $13!) tells me this is one to watch.

Return to Ravnica

Shocks at $7 or less (aiming for $10-$12+)

See above, but RtR shocks are slightly lower in price, perhaps more of it was opened than Gatecrash? If only we had real numbers.

Sphinx’s Revelation ($7, aiming for $15+)

It’s seeing Modern play and I’d need a very good reason not to play it in Commander or Cube. I’m not going to go too deep, but having a playset or two will be very nice in a year or so.

Chromatic Lantern ($4, aiming for $7)

That’s right: This is the 9 th –most valuable card in Return to Ravnica at this point. It’s casual gold and it’s only going to get better from here on out. You’ll never see a spike, but you will see incremental growth until it gets reprinted.

That’s a ‘when’ it gets reprinted, not an ‘if’. I wouldn’t be surprised if Modern Masters 2 had all ten filterlands, plus this, in order to support a heavily multi-color set. There are a couple of cards out there that are better at helping a five-color deck (Prismatic Omen, Joiner Adept) but they aren’t artifacts.

Rest in Peace ($1, aiming for $5)

This is another card with a striking foil price. Part of that is Terese Nielsen, who does consistently fantastic work, but this is a big card in Modern and Legacy sideboards. I like regular versions at $1, but the foil seems like an easy pick to be $20 (up from about $11 right now) in a year.

Ash Zealot ($1, aiming for $3)

So Eidolon of the Great Revel is a four-of in Burn decks? Ash Zealot is a fine follow-up to Goblin Guide if you want to do a lot of damage quickly. (No, really: three damage from them fetching into a shockland, then you GG and Zealot, and they are at 11 when they start turn 2.) Eidolon may be the new guy tearing up the charts, but Zealot was there immediately and will keep seeing play. Keep some around and just wait.

Enjoy release weekend!

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