Unlocked Pro Trader: At Long Last! Data!

Readers!

I have wondrous news! Decks are beginning to populate decklist websites, and in their wake, the EDHREC serpent hoovers up their luscious contents and regurgitates them on your carpet like a dutiful pet. Is it a gift or a warning? You don’t know, you don’t speak serpent language because they don’t have one. Serpents don’t have vocal cords, you idiot.

I’m here to poke around in the entrails and divine any information I can. Let’s get our hands dirty, shall we?

There isn’t a ton, and it’s mostly in “order these cards were spoiled” order for now, which is fine. We knew we’d get a ninja, and we have known that ninja was Satoru for what feels like a month. Hidetsugu, too. So is there any meat left on the bone considering people could have been tinkering with builds for a while? Let’s look!

Satoru Umezawa

Seems like there is a split between big creature to ninja in for 2BU and ways to make sure you get through unblocked. High Synergy cards aren’t always the best specs, but it is where we find picks that are more specific to this deck than to others. Anything stand out?

I started with the card I think has the least room to grow. I liked this initially under $10, and while I still do, I wouldn’t pay $10 for this, which means my gut says it likely won’t hit $20. Would you buy at $10 trying to get out at $12? No. What about $8? If you would, this is under $8 for now. It has multiple printings but that hasn’t stopped its price climb too much. I like this, and I like other specs even more.

$20 on CK for a card in barely 6,000 decks in the last 2 years? I have a feeling its inclusions may be more historical (think Kaalia decks, etc) but EDHREC doesn’t display that data.

Yet.

I don’t love this as a spec, but even with its high price, it’s primed to move. Check out CSI’s stock.

This graph for the Jumpstart version is WILD. This is about to hit a historic low, but there are lots of printings. This needs help from more than just Satoru, maybe, but it also opened at 25, went down, then got above 25. This can’t tank forever, and with copies at $12, I like it.

I wasn’t sure what to make of a card like this, so I decided to see where it ranked amongst other non-mythics in MH1.

This is already on the high end of non-mythics between $5 and $10, but this set has been out of print a while. Will Satoru make this more popular than Giver of Runes? I think we needed to see they were showing us Ninja in advance and pay attention then, unfortunately.

Basically all other Ninja are even worse. There is another kind of card for this deck, though, that will benefit more from data and is less kittycat in nature.

There are a few quick hits that don’t deserve their own heading but do deserve a mention.

Image

“Hinata, Crown of Dawn”
{1}{U}{R}{W}
Legendary Creature — Spirit Kirin
Flying, trample
Spells you cast cost {1} less to cast for each target they have.
Spells your opponents cast cost {1} more to cast for each target they have.

This seems like all of the cards with Strive that target are in play, at minimum.

Here is a scryfall search for “Any number of targets” to get you started. This dropped literally seconds ago so I haven’t had time to fully explore this, but it’s interesting.

This has a strive cost of 1 which makes it a very exciting target.

It seems pretty likely that if we look at Twinflame for the ceiling on these spikes, we’re looking at $2 minimum. I think the deck looks fun and I bet these bulk rares make some people some money.

Hinata makes Magma Opus cost 1RU but I doubt it makes it cost more money given how recent it is. Still, if you did build Hinata, Opus would be a shoo-in.

You have to weigh how you feel about low risk versus high supply. I’m in for a couple of playsets.

Final Fortune and friends already went bonkers in price because of Obeka, but Sigarda’s Aid and other equip aids could get there. If CK can charge $14 for a Sigarda’s Aid, I can pay $8 on TCG Player.

There will be plenty more hits as cards continue being spoiled, so check out my Twitter account for my thoughts. Until next time!

An Early Look At Kamigawa

We’ve been well underway with Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty spoilers previews for a couple of weeks now, and I want to spend today talking a little bit about some cards that I think are going to be ubiquitous, underrated or both.


Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant

Pre-order price: $30
Price I want to buy at: $10
Possible future price: $25

The new iteration of Jin-Gitaxias we’re getting looks to be a very powerful card, and might even outstrip the old Jin-Gitaxias in terms of how oppressive it could be at the EDH table. Copying your spells and countering your opponents’ spells is obviously strong, but the limit of one per turn isn’t nearly as restrictive as you might think at first glance. You can copy your own spell on your turn, counter someone else’s, and then do it again on each of your opponents’ turns – which means that it’s going to take at least two successive removal spells to get rid of Jin-Gitaxias. What’s more is that we’ve also upgraded from a nine mana 5/4 to a seven mana 5/5, a cost reduction which is not at all insignificant, especially if you’re playing this as your commander.

Pre-order prices are as usual a little too high, with TCGPlayer starting at $30 for the regular non-foil versions and a lot more for the EA, Showcase and Phyrexian versions. I’ve no doubt that this is going to be a hugely popular EDH card amongst blue mages – it does everything you want except for draw cards really, and will be a powerhouse in most decks. I expect to see prices come down towards $10 once we start to hit peak supply (pre-orders in Europe are already $18), and bounce back up to around $25 a year or two out from there. I’ll be keeping an eye on prices for the premium versions too, as they’re likely to get very expensive some way down the road, so if we can get those at a reasonable price then they should be a great pickup too.

Scrap Welder

Pre-order price: $2
Price I want to buy at: $0.50
Possible future price: $5

Scrap Welder is another Goblin Welder/Goblin Engineer lookalike, but with the potential for more versatility than either of those predecessors. It’s hard to beat the power level on Goblin Welder, at just one mana and no other cost to activate its ability, and Goblin Engineer’s tutor ability can make for a great setup before you start messing around with reanimating your artifacts – but hear me out.

Scrap Welder doesn’t have the three-mana-or-less restriction on it that Goblin Engineer does, and being a 3/3 it doesn’t die quite as easily as a Goblin Welder might, which falls over in a stiff breeze. What’s more is that you get to give haste to whatever behemoth you’re reanimating, and although you need to give as good as you’re getting in terms of mana cost, giving haste to something like a Kuldotha Forgemaster is bound to instil fear into your opponents.

As far as I can see there isn’t actually a page for this on TCGPlayer yet, but CardKingdom has had pre-orders up at $2 (which is roughly what I expect) so I’m going off that for now. It’s a little cheaper in Europe as pre-orders tend to be, but I hope to see this card getting down to (or below) $0.50 in the coming weeks. I don’t think it will ever hit true bulk rare prices so I wouldn’t hold out for that, or you might miss out on picking them up before the price trends up again. I think that this is going to be just as ubiquitous as its aforementioned cousins and as such should see some nice gains across all versions until its likely inevitable reprint in a future Commander deck.

Satsuki, the Living Lore

Pre-order price: $5
Price I want to buy at: $0.50
Possible future price: $5

This is another one without a page on TCGPlayer or CardKingdom, but prices in Europe are good enough to go off for now – although I think that they’re currently a bit higher than they should be. Don’t get me wrong, I think that Satsuki is a very strong card, but it doesn’t have quite the broad applications of the other cards I’ve discussed today, and as such will probably see prices in the $0.10-0.50 range.

Why is Satsuki so good? Well, if you want to play it as your Commander then the recently (ish) updated rule which enables your Commander to die and then also return to the Command Zone means that you can have your cake and eat it with the death trigger on the card. You can also just loop it with Sagas like Binding of the Titans and The Eldest Reborn, recurring value and card advantage with Satsuki also speeding the whole process up by setting off your Sagas earlier than normal.

Overall I think that this is a fantastic card for enchantment themed EDH decks, either as the Commander or part of the 99, and will likely rebound nicely from bulk-ish prices given enough time. It’s probably going to be a good buylist target down the road, so I wouldn’t be afraid of picking up a decent stack of these. I’d also keep an eye on prices for the Neon version, because those are likely to end up pretty popular too.


David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

The Fractured Calm Before The Storm

We’ve got a set of new commanders with Neon Dynasty, and one of them tells us exactly what to do.

I love commanders that are explicit about what they will reward you for. If you’ve never goaded something big and scary, you’re in for a treat here. In terms of what’s currently spiking or about to spike, let’s dive in and look at some cards.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Pro Trader: DECK Precogstruction

Readers!

I am not going to waste too much time today because I know what you want and I’d just as soon see that you have it. That said, I DO still have to write some stuff above the fold, so let’s have it not be a waste of your time.

Eventually, decks will make their way to EDHREC and we’ll have data to pore over, I sure HOPE by next week. Until then, we’re forced to speculate. That’s fine, isn’t “speculator” the term we self-apply? So let’s speculate. I decided to narrow the scope of my musings to just the 4 new spoiled Legendary creatures from the commander decks. Was one of those cards EDHREC’s preview card and some jackhole leaked it? Better yet, was it my personal preview card, something I haven’t gotten since… wow, Razaketh? You can’t prove it wasn’t. Indeed, though it causes me great emotional distress to discuss my personal preview card which was leaked before the video I made with Post Malone could go live, I’ll do it for you, my adoring fans, because you deserve it. Let’s look at some Magic cards before we question why we care so much about a game that’s so indifferent to our needs and the entire thing falls apart.

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