Watchtower

Feeling Blue? Ask Your Doctor If Modern Is Right For You

I hadn’t actually intended to just write about blue cards today, but I ended up doing just that and so here we are. Modern is still great and I’m just going to keep writing about it until someone tells me not to – paper tournaments are slowly returning and people are buying their Modern cards again (me included), so let’s see what we should be buying right now.

Murktide Regent

Price today: $20
Possible price: $40

Murktide Regent has quickly become a staple in the Izzet Tempo decks that are dominating Modern at the moment, and although it generally ends up costing two mana rather than one, it might just be a new and improved Delver of Secrets. With fetchlands in the format it’s not too difficult to cast this for two mana on turn three, and in this kind of deck it’s almost always going to come into play as a 5/5 or bigger. On top of that, any time you delve away any more instants or sorceries, Murktide just grows bigger, and can take over a game incredibly quickly.

All the Delver-esque decks are playing four Regents at the moment, and it’s pretty much become a staple in Legacy Delver decks as well. I don’t think it’s quite powerful enough to get banned, although we’ll have to keep an eye on it – but for the time being I don’t think it’s likely to be unseated from its place in these decks.


$20 is already a high-ish buy-in for a card that’s pretty much at peak supply right now, but if we compare it to other mythics from the set then it’s actually not looking too bad. Ragavan is already a $70 card and Endurance is $35, so $20 for a card with such a high amount of competitive play seems like it should easily get there soon enough. Supply is still reasonable at 125 TCGPlayer listings, but the vast majority of those are just single copies, and MKM is actually more expensive at the moment.

Striped Riverwinder (Foil)

Price in Europe: €2 ($2.50)
Price in US: $???
Possible price: $8

Living End is continuing to put up the numbers in Modern with the new-to-Modern Shardless Agent at the helm, and the Elementals from MH2 in the forms of Subtlety and Grief backing it up. Striped Riverwinder has long been an absolute staple in the deck – one mana to cycle and producing a huge 6/5 Hexproof body is some of the best value you can get with Living End, and so I don’t see it shifting from the list any time soon.

As far as I can see, foils are basically non-existent in the US. TCGPlayer has none, and there are just a sparse few copies across the major vendors. There aren’t exactly a huge number of copies in Europe either, but it’s still a great deal more than there are in the US, and so we have ourselves a nice arbitrage opportunity. This may only be a foil common, but it’s only ever had a single printing and it might be a little while yet before we see another set with Cycling in for a potential reprint. Ikoria had Cycling but no reprint for the Riverwinder, and so as a four-of in one of the more dominant Modern decks at the moment, copies are difficult to get hold of.

If you pick some of these up in Europe I can honestly see them selling for close to $7-8 each on TCGPlayer. People that want them for Living End may well pay a good $30 for their playsets, and being able to sell four at a time makes your life much easier.

Brazen Borrower (Showcase)

Price in Europe: €26 ($30)
Price in US: $40
Possible price: $50

Brazen Borrower has waxed and waned in Modern (and other formats) since its printing way back in Throne of Eldraine, but is back to the forefront of the meta again now. Four copies in the Crashing Footfalls Cascade decks, as well as lots of other decks playing 1-3 copies between main and sideboards – Living End, Izzet Tempo, Jeskai control lists etc. – and it’s the 7th most played creature in Modern right now.

The Showcase versions of these are really nice – Eldraine had one of my favourite Showcase styles that we’ve seen for a while, and people want the pretty ones for their decks. Supply is running very low now with only 24 TCGPlayer listings across foils and non-foils, with non-foils running around $40+ and foils already up at $100. This is a card with a printing in The List as well, but those are the same price and even more sparse.

Europe has copies a bit cheaper at the moment, starting around $30 with a reasonable number of copies there before you get to $40, but again not a hugely deep supply. There’s a nice bit of arbitrage to be had there, and a good opportunity to pick up cheaper personal copies if you need them. I expect to see prices push up to $50 and maybe higher on the non-foils, and I’d keep an eye out for any cheap foil copies too because they could easily crest $130+ before too long.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Jason Alt, ProTrader

Pro Trader: Minor Players

Readers,

Last week, whether because I went with the Top 4 commanders from the EDH decks or because I picked the face commanders, the result was the same. We looked at Prosper, Galea and Wulfgar and wanted to find cards and couldn’t from Sefris. We may have missed some good picks from the non-face commanders and we’ll get into that today, although the face commanders are still considerably more popular. Now, those cards have been known for longer, but they’re also still being built the most. Let’s look at where things were last week.

Prosper is the top, followed by Sefris, then Galea then Wulfgar. You can read, I know. Since you’re over here knowing stuff, do you think the Top 5 will be the same today as it was a week ago?

It’s close, but a few things happened. Prosper shot up to number 1, which means we’ll want to comb through for Prosper to see if we missed anything. Xanathar tanked, which feels bad to me personally because he’s my favorite commander in the set, but I get it. Vrondiss, a pretty medium-looking commander supplanted Minsc and Boo, a popular (I want to say Baldur’s Gate?) D&D character with a loveable pet, which is a great meme commander but maybe not the most playable? Finally, Klauth moved way up to the second row, which is positive. I don’t know if there is anything new there, but it’s worth a look. The docket for today is Prosper, Vrondiss, Klauth and if there is time, a few others. I have a feeling there is a lot to discuss, however.

First up, we have some news.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Casual Fridays

How Cheap Can These Cards Get?

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms is officially released today, so we’re able to buy those cards from vendors. As always, I’m expecting most cards to take a tumble as they become widely available, especially because they seem underpowered compared to other sets currently in Standard.

Underpowered usually means cheap, and AFR has one of the lowest aggregate values I’ve seen at release. As a result, people are expecting less of this set to be opened, and that makes sense, especially with Modern Horizons 2 right there, pouring value into your wallet if you’re buying as a distributor. 

So if a set is under-opened…that means it’s likely under-valued! Time to look at AFR from a long-term perspective, looking for cards that will likely have some casual appeal. What can we get cheaply now, and if stores are reopening and events are happening in paper, what might be good in a few months when Standard rotates?

Tasha’s Hideous Laughter ($10) – Modern Mill is a real thing, and this is a four-of in that deck. It’s not a great card for Commander, as that’s a land where lots of big-mana spells are at, but mill cards have always had their fans. It’s both severely irritating and glorious fun! This is a card that I’m hoping will fall to the $1-2 range, but that’s likely too much hope. Casual and Modern demand will likely keep this close to $5, and that’s more than I want to pay. In three months, when the set is at maximum supply and we’re all drooling over the first of two Innistrad sets, perhaps it’ll be $3, and that’s when I’d like to acquire a lot of this card. I’m going for the basic versions, mind you; a card bought four at a time asks for the regular nonfoils.

Old Gnawbone ($21) – I get why people think this card is awesome. When you hit someone for some damage, you get a bunch of Treasures! What’s not to love? The problem is, if you are hitting someone for a bunch, you’re already winning, you’re already ahead. I don’t need more mana when I’m already getting in for damage! This is very much a win-more card, and Commander is a format that loves to win more. The price on this will drop by at least half, and likely farther for the basic editions. It’s a big green flyer, and there aren’t a lot of those, but the ability is not as good as it seems. I’m expecting this to really fall over the long term, probably to $5 or less.

Circle of Dreams Druid ($9) – This is already great, though the mana cost is a big deal. It’s a fixed Gaea’s Cradle, and the last fixed version of that, Growing Rites of Itlimoc, has a curve that we would do well to anticipate: 

I’m not saying this is a $20 card right now, especially in the basic nonfoil, but it is a card that when it’s cheap (Not if, when!) we want to stock up on. I’m hoping it drops to under $2, but casual demand might keep it higher than that. There’s a chance it shows up in Modern and Legacy Elves, but those decks already have access to Elvish Archdruid, a strictly better card in 100% Elves decks. Not sure how many more they’d want to run, but the kitchen table crowd will keep this from being bulk.

Tiamat ($19) – This is a fantastic card, and one I can’t wait to play with. However, it’s a very specific tribal card (albeit one of the best tribes) and works best as a Commander, or as a member of the 99. The most important detail though is that the basic version has fallen in price, and Thursday night a copy was sold on TCG for $17.50. The fall is real, and ongoing. The borderless foil copies are going to fall some too, there was a copy that sold on Facebook during the prerelease for $150 but there’s copies on TCG right now for $50 or less. That’s the trajectory it’s on, and it will bottom out like every other card, probably at $7-$10 for the basic and $30 for the borderless foil.

Demilich ($18) – The good news is that this is going to be in some of the most popular decks around, the assorted UR spells/blitz/burn lists that are lighting it up in Legacy and Modern. There have been some lists that use this as a four-of, which is the kick a card like this needs, but at least it isn’t legendary. Please keep in mind that its attack trigger isn’t a free cast, you still need to pay the mana. I think there will be enough builders to keep this near $10, but it’s already sliding and it might well end up closer to $5. Arclight Phoenix took a long while to claw back up to $10, and this is nicely analogous.

Teleportation Circle ($1) – This will be a bulk rare, but it’s one that I’m going to go in on once it’s officially bulk. Conjurer’s Closet was $7 before the Double Masters reprint:

Yes, this is not an artifact but it costs one less. Flickering things is already a big thing in white decks, and there will be a time where this card buylists for decent money. I’m not too proud to buy at a dime and sell for a dollar.

Treasure Vault ($8) – I’ve got my eye on this as an untapped artifact land. There’s only two legal in Modern right now, this and Darksteel Citadel. It’s not making waves in decks with Arcbound Ravager yet, but if this gets cheap and then a real affinity deck takes off, this will have a chance to shine very very brightly. 

Granted, I don’t think that happens anytime soon, but I think the Vault will be down to a couple of bucks and at that point, I want to have some copies in reserve.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Dungeons And Drags

Readers!

Whoever gave this set the three letter Code AFR rather than DND did us all a real disservice if you ask me. How I feel about AFR being the code is about how I feel about AFR as a set and let me make one thing perfectly clear – I couldn’t be happier to be able to take a set off. I didn’t buy any sealed product, I need like 3 copies of Grazilaxx and that’s basically all I need for decks and I couldn’t be happier. Taking a set off as a builder and collector has been great, and not caring about ANY of these cards has made it so easy to look at data and not have that internal moment of struggle where the data is showing a card I like is under-performing and simply accepting that fact means accepting I evaluated a card wrong, then you have that Seymour Skinner moment.

Anyway, none of that this time. Just cold, hard data. And wouldn’t you know it, EDHREC got the EDH deck commanders added in with the rest of the set in a move I actually prefer to giving it its own page. I like to see how the DNDDH precon decks stack up against the rest of the set. While the full amount of data we’re going to get isn’t in yet which means the precon commanders could still improve relative to the non-precon commanders spoiled earlier, we are seeing trends at least right now. Let’s look at how the sets look next to one another.

Prosper has rocketed to an impressive second overall, Sefris, Galea and Wulfgar are jockeying for a Top-5 spot and Kalain, an uncommon, is already beating D and D fan favorites like Bruenor and Drizzt. If that sounds like complete nonsense to you, it does to me, too. Like, looking at the pictures helps, but every time I go on a podcast, I am very aware that I am just saying a bunch of names that I myself will forget in a few minutes. 42 new legendary creatures every couple of weeks is too much. Give EDH a break, seriously.

The huge dump of commanders sort of dilutes the impact of tier 2 commanders in my opinion, unless they’re putting pressure on the same cards as a tier 1 commander might, in which case they can’t hurt and can only help. Accordingly, I won’t spend too much time looking at commanders registered in 16 decks across 5 websites and will look at the stuff that really matters. Let’s look at the heavy hitters from D&DDH, shall we?

Live Short and Prosper

This is my exact $%^&. Of the high synergy cards in Prosper, 8 of them are in my Valki deck already. Am I making a new deck to run all of these cards again? Maybe not, but nothing is impossible. What IS possible is that Prosper being in a precon will encourage WAY more people to build with these kinds of cards than Valki being in a regular set and everyone hating it immediately because it ruined a bunch of formats its first week did. I still like Valki but people who never gave Valki a chance (or read all 98 lines of text on the front and back) will like Prosper more, I bet.

Last week I got a rare comment on an article, which was nice. I get more feedback about my writing in the Pro Trader Discord, a Discord community I can’t recommend enough. Phitt correctly identified Stolen Strategy as a card Prosper decks could get a lot of use out of and I want to frame this next paragraph as me agreeing with Phitt super hard rather than trying to call this one of my picks. I think it would have been a card I talked about this week when I saw the High Synergy (the ratio of how much the card is played in this one deck to how much it’s played in the format in general) cards in Prosper. Let’s talk about why Stolen Strategy rules.

There aren’t too many cards in Battlebond that are above $5 and Stolen Strategy is much harder to reprint, specifically in a future Commander product, than any of them. It’s already over-achieving for a non-Mythic, but there is more future upside for this card, I think. $10 before anything happens to knock it off of its current trajectory is a bet I’m willing to make. If you can scoop sub-$5 copies of Stolen Strategy, I would.

Back in February there was practically an arbitrage opportunity on this card, maybe due to Valki? Whatever it was, this card is basically always $3 buylist which means if you can get it for under $5, you’re buying below what the dealers who were paying $3 when this sold for $3 thought this would be selling for at retail at this point.

I was thinking about how many times Etali has been reprinted lately, and it made me reconsider my position on how reprintable Stolen Strategy is, but the conclusion that I came to ultimately was a little more nuanced. I don’t think Etali’s repeated reprinting is a signal that Stolen Strategy could get reprinted but rather it is a sign that Etali is how they prefer people do the kinds of things that Stolen Strategy does and not only will there not be a likely reprint, there will be increased future demand based on how well Stolen Strategy performs in a deck that already has Etali. Printing Prosper indicates they like this kind of effect so if decks like this proliferate, Stolen Strategy has a lot of chances to get noticed. Normally I don’t love recommending a $5 buy-in for a card that likely tops out at $10, but I think you can get them cheaper than $5 and they could go beyond $10. It’s only been a few years and they’re in vogue now more than ever.

Maybe the Pirate ship has sailed on copies of Revel in Riches, but I still think it goes up and the Mystery Booster printing didn’t do much to address price, merely supply, which I hope they think is sufficient. The reprint risk on this is medium but I do love this card and wish I’d bought in deeper around $1 like I considered doing.

Galea

This costs half on TCG Player what it does on CK. Historically, CK has had a good instinct for what will go up based on EDH and this card seems like no exception.

Two reprints in quick succession have taken this from a $12 card to a $4 one. Does this hit $12 again? Unmolested, I think it does. Despite high supply, there is also a ton of demand with more every day. As long as it’s cheaper than Stoneforge Mystic, also, EDH players see this as a Stoneforge they can realistically afford, which helps demand, also. All in all, I think this is a good buy below $4, which is attainable currently.

Wulfgar

Lannery storm is only going to get better with the concession by Wizards that treasure is here to stay as a mechanic. This is a $5 Ixalan foil and I like both the foil and non-foil right now.

Najeela made this card pop from like 50 pennies to 50 dimes in a short time, a second spike would be even better, especially if you can get in around a dollar. This card is too powerful in the right deck to not be a long-term gainer, especially if another deck like Najeela comes along.

I think it’s possible that the “face” commanders in the decks are over-represented a bit because people had more time to brew with them, but until we get data that proves that hypothesis, I’m going to stick to covering the most impactful commanders for now. The next week will answer some of our questions, so, until next time!

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY